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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

On voting intention there’s no change with the Tories on 40% and LAB on 29%. But it’s the other findings that should concern those in the Labour Party who are hoping for an early return to power.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

During his honeymoon lol

TheScreamingEagles

Sub-optimal polling for Ozzy too.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/688443315319107584

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

TheScreamingEagles

Mike

So ComRes is another poll that Corbynistas can be in denial about. These figures are dire.

Scott_P

@Maomentum_: Here the use of the word 'widely' illustrates how the meaning of words develops and changes over time. Fascinating. https://t.co/jLGZmrficb

And thusly...

@Maomentum_: Poll shows it is 'widely' thought that @jeremycorbyn would be a good prime minister. https://t.co/c3y7OrejrH

Scott_P

I think what Labour needs to do to get better poll numbers is use Ken Livingstone more. Maybe send him on TV occasionally, give him a high profile policy job, something like that.

kle4

I wish there were options on who would be an ok PM. Cameron's 'goodness' as a PM isn't stellar, but he's not been a disaster either.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Razedabode

I am amazed labour continue to run as they do. The only possible issue they seem to be on the side of the public on is the junior doctor strike. Coupled with poor leadership ratings, labour are looking down the barrel of a gun and no one seems to have the guts, or indeed the vision, to deal with it.

Sandpit

Only 11% still. Jeremy is obviously a lucky general.

Supplementaries are quite shite for the red team though, so given the pollsters' record last May even that 29% looks soft.

Also overwhelming proof that the difference is understood between free movement of labour and free movement of people - the latter being incompatible with the welfare state.

chestnut

Labour on 29% online.

That's their home ground.

God help them when they have to play away from home in a real vote.

Sean_F

Scott_P said:

@Maomentum_: Here the use of the word 'widely' illustrates how the meaning of words develops and changes over time. Fascinating. https://t.co/jLGZmrficb

And thusly...

@Maomentum_: Poll shows it is 'widely' thought that @jeremycorbyn would be a good prime minister. https://t.co/c3y7OrejrH

22% is 9m voters, who think he'd be a good PM. The problem is 23m disagree.

TheScreamingEagles

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

TheScreamingEagles

That said, the ComRes poll sees most people expect us to vote to Leave

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/688445708454744065

justin124

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I spotted not quite a typo but an entirely unintended innuendo in a first draft. Fortunately, it was comedy, so I just left it in

david_herdson

Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

TheScreamingEagles

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

It seems odd that this is presented as "a boost to keep Britain in the EU". Even if they support that policy when asked, it doesn't necessarily follow that they would then vote to stay in if the policy is passed.

MikeL

Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

MP_SE

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Won't this save just tens of millions a year? Pocket change which will achieve very little.

Sandpit

I guess it could be worse for Labour. In the days before the Fixed Parliament Act, the PM could consider calling a snap election this Autumn in order to improve his working majority, entirely at his own discretion.

another_richard

I'm surprised that ANYONE thinks that Labour is united as both the Corbynistas and the anti-Corbynistas are open about how much they oppose the others.

Yet more evidence that some people will give contrarian views to any question.

Gravitation

david_herdson said:

Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

A result a la 1931 would be delicious, though 1935 and 1924 would be equally acceptable.

justin124

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

HYUFD

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

MikeL

david_herdson said:

Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

And much of the next few months is going to be focussed on Lab's defence review.

Defence is by far the most toxic subject for Lab - they will lose more votes over Defence than anything else.

Even just having the subject talked about on TV is disastrous for Lab.

ThreeQuidder

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

Even on these numbers and unchanged boundaries, Tories get 18 gains (15 from Lab, 2 from LD, 1 from SNP) and PC gain 1 (from Lab). Comfortable majority.

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?

Yup.

Back in 2012 when Labour were polling in the mid 40s and the Tories in the early 30s, the Sunday Times had a YouGov poll with Lab on 42% and the Tories on 34%.

I messaged Mike the figures, but it had a typo, Lab 42% and Tories on 43%

Nearly sent Mike into meltdown

HYUFD

54% back renewing Trident as long as other nations have nuclear weapons, 22% opposed.
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

Scott_P

@MattSingh_: Customary reminder that tiny, GB-level raked crosstabs can be very misleading. Poll does NOT mean that Labour is in 4th place in Scotland...

PClipp

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.

TheScreamingEagles

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

another_richard

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

TheScreamingEagles

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.

So feeble, he's driven Labour insane and wiped out the Lib Dems.

Just imagine what he would have achieved if he wasn't feeble.

Moses_

More SNP trouble

"An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

"Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

Sean_F

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?

Mad Nat McMad.

Sandpit

MikeL said:

david_herdson said:

Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

And much of the next few months is going to be focussed on Lab's defence review.

Defence is by far the most toxic subject for Lab - they will lose more votes over Defence than anything else.

Even just having the subject talked about on TV is disastrous for Lab.

But for Corbyn and his fellow travellers it's the central plank of their policy platform.

They *want* everyone to be talking about labour's defence policy, even though to most people the idea that they don't want to defend the country is seen as preposterous.

In a nutshell, it's why that 29% is only going in one direction. There's months of this to come and Corbyn's looking forward to every minute of it!! It's the culmination of his life's ambitions.

MP_SE

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.

A comparison of what Cameron wanted before and what he actually gets will be amusing. That is assuming associate membership is off the table for now.

Speedy

Hey No Change, No Surprise.

It's what 7 months now since I predicted No Change under Corbyn from the GE of 2015 till the GE of 2020 ?
So far so good.

NickPalmer

MikeL said:

Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands. ComRes's data is not comparable with past polls because of the (over?)adjustments but clearly Labour IS divided and that's never popular. Whether that will change over time, we shall see.

O/T: Went along to the London Lumiere at Kings Cross this evening. Not too impressed - wonderful turnout (in the hundreds of thousands, I'd think - like a football match only much more) but the scattered exhibits were a bit meh - a birdcage, dots on a wall, a wedding dress, a projection, etc. Would have been nice enough, but oversold. The crowd were cheerfully underwhelmed, and mostly seemed to be just enjoying the evening stroll.

TheScreamingEagles

Moses_ said:

More SNP trouble

"An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

"Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

This is what narrow little nationalism eventually leads to.

Omnium

Corbyn spent all those years on the back benches with nobody listening to him. Now that some people are paying attention he's hardly going to think of it as a downgrade. If Corbyn lives to 125 he'll still be Labour leader. It'll be just him in the party (possibly with the characterful and brave Andy Burnham), but still.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

Con+Ukip = 56%. Funny to think that one reason the centre-left were so keen to introduce AV was to cement their natural majority.

justin124

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Speedy

Moses_ said:

More SNP trouble

"An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

"Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

The SNP is a very broad church, from communists to nazis and everything in between as long as they support scottish independence or think that every other party is crappier.

At some point the natural inconsistencies within such a broad church will snap it.

MattW

TheScreamingEagles said:

CON 40% (nc) LAB 29% (nc) LD 7% (nc) UKIP16% (nc) GRN 34 (nc)

Yes it is rather a good typo.

Presumably Mr Eagles is trying to kill the Greens off by giving them heart attacks with the shock.

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

Con+Ukip = 56%. Funny to think that one reason the centre-left were so keen to introduce AV was to cement their natural majority.

Yes at the moment the Tories lead with the private sector middle class while UKIP is fast making gains with the working class, leaving the left with the public sector and ethnic minorities (though even there the Tories won Hindus and Sikhs at the election)

kle4

MattW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CON 40% (nc) LAB 29% (nc) LD 7% (nc) UKIP16% (nc) GRN 34 (nc)

Yes it is rather a good typo.

Presumably Mr Eagles is trying to kill the Greens off by giving them heart attacks with the shock.

If you hear Caroline Lucas and other Greens talk about the will of the mass of the people (which they represent), they act like that's the poll number they've been getting for years.

justin124

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

Omnium

NickPalmer said:

(in the hundreds of thousands, I'd think)

I went the other night too - your estimate is wildly off. I'd be surprised if there were as many as 10,000 people there.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!

felix

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Ever the eternal optimist.

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!

Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

True, the 2016 locals will be the last good ones for UKIP since their surge occurred in 2013.
Labour from now till the locals of 2021(2022 in scotland) will be hammered in the countryside, especially the midlands.
While for the LD most of the damage has already gone through the system.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

JohnO

Speedy said:

Hey No Change, No Surprise.

It's what 7 months now since I predicted No Change under Corbyn from the GE of 2015 till the GE of 2020 ?
So far so good.

How much do want to wager on that? £100?

oxfordsimon

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!

Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.

Cling to that belief as long as you can. If that is what you need to do.

justin124

felix said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Ever the eternal optimist.

Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?

kle4

justin124 said:

felix said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Ever the eternal optimist.

Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?

Consistency is for the boring!

chestnut

Scott_P said:

@MattSingh_: Customary reminder that tiny, GB-level raked crosstabs can be very misleading. Poll does NOT mean that Labour is in 4th place in Scotland...

Fifth?

oxfordsimon

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Speedy

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

Forget the polling errors of 2015, I think the biggest error at the 2015 election was by the political pundits/politicians not realising that UKIP might do more damage to Labour than they would do to the Tories

(And I include myself in that)

HYUFD

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

justin124

oxfordsimon said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!

Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.

Cling to that belief as long as you can. If that is what you need to do.

I do not need to cling to anything here - it is simply a matter of looking at the already clearly established pattern of polling that has come out since last May. The data is readily available should you be genuinely interested - but for some reason you appear determined - or desperate - to focus on the poll most favourable to the Tories.
Earlier in the thread I did actually predict that Comres would come up with a lead similar to this.

TheScreamingEagles

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

Speedy

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

Sandpit

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Well quite. Their new their new found supporters seem to think that 'media' means Twitter, and those in charge would rather be talking about a defence review while their own MPs bad mouth the leadership to any journo that will listen.

Who's the largest popcorn maker in the UK, 'cos I'd like to buy shares in them on Monday morning?

MikeL

NickPalmer said:

MikeL said:

Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands.

If correct then it wouldn't affect many seats (in any election) - however it could affect the London Mayoral which is of course just London wide vote total.

Sandpit

Off topic, Christopher Booker in the Sunday Telegraph identifies a few more easy savings in public spending for Dave, along the lines of our friend in the Environment Agency that lived in Barbados in the winter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/12103689/Fat-cat-sisterhood-that-runs-Britain-badly.html

justin124

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Speedy

Someone is unloading on Twitter:

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 3h3 hours ago
Ted is the ultimate hypocrite. Says one thing for money, does another for votes.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/politics/at-new-york-reception-ted-cruz-is-said-to-strike-different-tone-toward-gays.html?referer= …

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Ted Cruz was born in Canada and was a Canadian citizen until 15 months ago. Lawsuits have just been filed with more to follow. I told you so

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Was there another loan that Ted Cruz FORGOT to file. Goldman Sachs owns him, he will do anything they demand. Not much of a reformer!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
The Ted Cruz wiseguy apology to the people of New York is a disgrace. Remember, his wife’s employer, and his lender, is located there!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Oh no, just reported that Ted Cruz didn’t report another loan, this one from Citi. Wow, no wonder banks do so well in the U.S. Senate.

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Based on the fact that Ted Cruz was born in Canada and is therefore a “natural born Canadian,” did he borrow unreported loans from C banks?

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
Ted Cruz purposely, and illegally, did not list on his personal disclosure form personally guaranteed loans from banks. They own him!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
If Ted Cruz is so opposed to gay marriage, why did he accept money from people who espouse gay marriage?

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 42m42 minutes ago
Everybody that loves the people of New York, and all they have been thru, should get hypocrites like Ted Cruz out of politics!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
When will @TedCruz give all the New York based campaign contributions back to the special interests that control him.

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

And it's still going on.

another_richard

Speedy said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.

UKIP doesn't need to WIN to have an impact.

If UKIP takes more of the 2012 Labour vote than it takes of the 2012 Conservative vote (and it almost certainly will) then Labour loses councillors to the Conservatives.

UKIP didn't win in Morley or Gower or Telford or Bolton West or Plymouth but it still had a great impact.

david_herdson

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

Scott_P

The Corbynistas on Twitter have not taken this poll well...

Speedy

another_richard said:

Speedy said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.

UKIP doesn't need to WIN to have an impact.

If UKIP takes more of the 2012 Labour vote than it takes of the 2012 Conservative vote (and it almost certainly will) then Labour loses councillors to the Conservatives.

UKIP didn't win in Morley or Gower or Telford or Bolton West or Plymouth but it still had a great impact.

To the victor the spoils, to UKIP the short end of the stick.

JosiasJessop

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

I was rather amused the other day to read a spat between two friends on Facebook. Both were people who would post pro-Labour items, especially in the run-up to the election.

They were arguing over the cuts, with one taking a Blairite, and the other a Corbynite, position. It ended up with them saying to each other that their view represented 'real' Labour.

It got very heated. I was tempted to chime in and say they were both wrong, but I want to live.

oxfordsimon

Scott_P said:

The Corbynistas on Twitter have not taken this poll well...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind!

HYUFD

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

Yes but in the previous elections in 2004 Labour had already lost 460 seats so had little further to fall. In 2012 Labour gained over 800 seats

justin124

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

Most are still with Labour - some have switched to Green - others have gone SNP. The other point of course is that the right of centre LibDems who switched to the Tories later in the last Parliament appear for the moment to be content with their new home!

another_richard

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

The 2008 local elections had previously been contested in 2004 when the Conservatives had led Labour 37-26:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2004

It was thus a 4% Lab->Con swing in 2008.

On this opinion poll we're looking at a 9% Lab->Con swing in 2016.

Now I'm not expecting that and much can change in four months but things could be very bad for Labour this year.

Sandpit

Speedy said:

Someone is unloading on Twitter:



Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

And it's still going on.

So much for the idea that Cruz might be Trump's running mate! At least he is moving slowly on from where his opponent was born, onto what he says and who funds his campaign.

Whatever one may think about the Donald, he's at least his own man and isn't beholden to large campaign donors. That fact seems to be catching the imagination of Americans.

david_herdson

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

The Conservatives lost 405 seats 2012, when they had a NEV deficit of 7%, against a lead in 2008 - as you say - of 20%. As the Lib Dems lost 336 seats, few will have gone Con-LD so most will have been Labour gains.

It's probably not smoothly distributed but a Con lead of 6% would be midway between those two outcomes so losses of c.200 would be ballpark. On top of which, there are then the gains that UKIP might make. If the elections were tomorrow, I'd reckon on perhaps 250 Lab losses.

Wanderer

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

Good question. They (or some of them at least) may be back with the Lib Dems who in turn may have lost some coalitionistas to the Tories. There could be a lot of churn inside the LD's static-looking polling.

NickPalmer

MikeL said:

NickPalmer said:

MikeL said:

Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands.

If correct then it wouldn't affect many seats (in any election) - however it could affect the London Mayoral which is of course just London wide vote total.

Yes - it's one reason why I see the Mayoral race as a tossup.

justin124

Wanderer said:

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

Good question. They (or some of them at least) may be back with the Lib Dems who in turn may have lost some coalitionistas to the Tories. There could be a lot of churn inside the LD's static-looking polling.

Very few I would have thought. Cannot see the LibDems appealing again to left of centre voters much this side of 2040. All Labour has to do is remind people of 'Who put the Tories in?'

felix

justin124 said:

felix said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Ever the eternal optimist.

Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?

Lol - you are spinning like a truly demented top - one fears for your health!

Mortimer

Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

AndyJS

How many councils are Labour in danger of losing in May?

justin124

felix said:

justin124 said:

felix said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

Ever the eternal optimist.

Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?

Lol - you are spinning like a truly demented top - one fears for your health!

Oh dear! I suspect that in your case a change of medication is somewhat overdue.

JohnO

Mortimer said:

Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

NickP and Speedy are still true believers (bless), I think Big John Owls less so. Oh, and Surby too.

another_richard

david_herdson said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

The Conservatives lost 405 seats 2012, when they had a NEV deficit of 7%, against a lead in 2008 - as you say - of 20%. As the Lib Dems lost 336 seats, few will have gone Con-LD so most will have been Labour gains.

It's probably not smoothly distributed but a Con lead of 6% would be midway between those two outcomes so losses of c.200 would be ballpark. On top of which, there are then the gains that UKIP might make. If the elections were tomorrow, I'd reckon on perhaps 250 Lab losses.

Might I ask which wards the Wakefield Conservatives are targeting this year

I guess you're looking to make 4-5 gains ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakefield_Metropolitan_District_Council_election,_2012

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

A lot of PB Tories are still Corbyn cheerleaders.

surbiton

Why do we have to assume that staying nuclear has to be with Trident ? And, 4 of them.