politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divid

Sub-optimal polling for Ozzy too.

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

@Maomentum_: Here the use of the word 'widely' illustrates how the meaning of words develops and changes over time. Fascinating. https://t.co/jLGZmrficb

And thusly...

@Maomentum_: Poll shows it is 'widely' thought that @jeremycorbyn would be a good prime minister. https://t.co/c3y7OrejrH

I wish there were options on who would be an ok PM. Cameron's 'goodness' as a PM isn't stellar, but he's not been a disaster either.

Only 11% still. Jeremy is obviously a lucky general.

Supplementaries are quite shite for the red team though, so given the pollsters' record last May even that 29% looks soft.

Also overwhelming proof that the difference is understood between free movement of labour and free movement of people - the latter being incompatible with the welfare state.

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/688445708454744065

Mr. Eagles, I spotted not quite a typo but an entirely unintended innuendo in a first draft. Fortunately, it was comedy, so I just left it in

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

It seems odd that this is presented as "a boost to keep Britain in the EU". Even if they support that policy when asked, it doesn't necessarily follow that they would then vote to stay in if the policy is passed.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bad news for Leave in this poll

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Won't this save just tens of millions a year? Pocket change which will achieve very little.

I'm surprised that ANYONE thinks that Labour is united as both the Corbynistas and the anti-Corbynistas are open about how much they oppose the others.

Yet more evidence that some people will give contrarian views to any question.

david_herdson said:

Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

And much of the next few months is going to be focussed on Lab's defence review.

Defence is by far the most toxic subject for Lab - they will lose more votes over Defence than anything else.

Even just having the subject talked about on TV is disastrous for Lab.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?

Yup.

Back in 2012 when Labour were polling in the mid 40s and the Tories in the early 30s, the Sunday Times had a YouGov poll with Lab on 42% and the Tories on 34%.

I messaged Mike the figures, but it had a typo, Lab 42% and Tories on 43%

Nearly sent Mike into meltdown

@MattSingh_: Customary reminder that tiny, GB-level raked crosstabs can be very misleading. Poll does NOT mean that Labour is in 4th place in Scotland...

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.

So feeble, he's driven Labour insane and wiped out the Lib Dems.

Just imagine what he would have achieved if he wasn't feeble.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.

Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?

Mad Nat McMad.

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.

A comparison of what Cameron wanted before and what he actually gets will be amusing. That is assuming associate membership is off the table for now.

MikeL said:

Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands. ComRes's data is not comparable with past polls because of the (over?)adjustments but clearly Labour IS divided and that's never popular. Whether that will change over time, we shall see.

O/T: Went along to the London Lumiere at Kings Cross this evening. Not too impressed - wonderful turnout (in the hundreds of thousands, I'd think - like a football match only much more) but the scattered exhibits were a bit meh - a birdcage, dots on a wall, a wedding dress, a projection, etc. Would have been nice enough, but oversold. The crowd were cheerfully underwhelmed, and mostly seemed to be just enjoying the evening stroll.

Corbyn spent all those years on the back benches with nobody listening to him. Now that some people are paying attention he's hardly going to think of it as a downgrade. If Corbyn lives to 125 he'll still be Labour leader. It'll be just him in the party (possibly with the characterful and brave Andy Burnham), but still.

Moses_ said:

More SNP trouble

"An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

"Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

The SNP is a very broad church, from communists to nazis and everything in between as long as they support scottish independence or think that every other party is crappier.

At some point the natural inconsistencies within such a broad church will snap it.

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

Con+Ukip = 56%. Funny to think that one reason the centre-left were so keen to introduce AV was to cement their natural majority.

Yes at the moment the Tories lead with the private sector middle class while UKIP is fast making gains with the working class, leaving the left with the public sector and ethnic minorities (though even there the Tories won Hindus and Sikhs at the election)

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!

So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

Speedy said:

Hey No Change, No Surprise.

It's what 7 months now since I predicted No Change under Corbyn from the GE of 2015 till the GE of 2020 ?
So far so good.

How much do want to wager on that? £100?

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Well quite. Their new their new found supporters seem to think that 'media' means Twitter, and those in charge would rather be talking about a defence review while their own MPs bad mouth the leadership to any journo that will listen.

Who's the largest popcorn maker in the UK, 'cos I'd like to buy shares in them on Monday morning?

Off topic, Christopher Booker in the Sunday Telegraph identifies a few more easy savings in public spending for Dave, along the lines of our friend in the Environment Agency that lived in Barbados in the winter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/12103689/Fat-cat-sisterhood-that-runs-Britain-badly.html

Someone is unloading on Twitter:

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 3h3 hours ago
Ted is the ultimate hypocrite. Says one thing for money, does another for votes.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/politics/at-new-york-reception-ted-cruz-is-said-to-strike-different-tone-toward-gays.html?referer= …

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Ted Cruz was born in Canada and was a Canadian citizen until 15 months ago. Lawsuits have just been filed with more to follow. I told you so

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Was there another loan that Ted Cruz FORGOT to file. Goldman Sachs owns him, he will do anything they demand. Not much of a reformer!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
The Ted Cruz wiseguy apology to the people of New York is a disgrace. Remember, his wife’s employer, and his lender, is located there!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Oh no, just reported that Ted Cruz didn’t report another loan, this one from Citi. Wow, no wonder banks do so well in the U.S. Senate.

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
Based on the fact that Ted Cruz was born in Canada and is therefore a “natural born Canadian,” did he borrow unreported loans from C banks?

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
Ted Cruz purposely, and illegally, did not list on his personal disclosure form personally guaranteed loans from banks. They own him!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
If Ted Cruz is so opposed to gay marriage, why did he accept money from people who espouse gay marriage?

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 42m42 minutes ago
Everybody that loves the people of New York, and all they have been thru, should get hypocrites like Ted Cruz out of politics!

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
When will @TedCruz give all the New York based campaign contributions back to the special interests that control him.

Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

And it's still going on.

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

another_richard said:

Speedy said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

Indeed.

Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.

I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.

UKIP doesn't need to WIN to have an impact.

If UKIP takes more of the 2012 Labour vote than it takes of the 2012 Conservative vote (and it almost certainly will) then Labour loses councillors to the Conservatives.

UKIP didn't win in Morley or Gower or Telford or Bolton West or Plymouth but it still had a great impact.

To the victor the spoils, to UKIP the short end of the stick.

Scott_P said:

The Corbynistas on Twitter have not taken this poll well...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind!

Speedy said:

Someone is unloading on Twitter:



Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

And it's still going on.

So much for the idea that Cruz might be Trump's running mate! At least he is moving slowly on from where his opponent was born, onto what he says and who funds his campaign.

Whatever one may think about the Donald, he's at least his own man and isn't beholden to large campaign donors. That fact seems to be catching the imagination of Americans.

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

justin124 said:

For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

Gold Standard and all that jazz.

But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab

But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.

That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.

Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!

So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011

I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.

Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?

Good question. They (or some of them at least) may be back with the Lib Dems who in turn may have lost some coalitionistas to the Tories. There could be a lot of churn inside the LD's static-looking polling.

Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

david_herdson said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Less than 4 months to the local elections.

We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

2012
Lab 38
Con 31
LibDem 16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.

It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.

You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.

Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!

They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.

The Conservatives lost 405 seats 2012, when they had a NEV deficit of 7%, against a lead in 2008 - as you say - of 20%. As the Lib Dems lost 336 seats, few will have gone Con-LD so most will have been Labour gains.

It's probably not smoothly distributed but a Con lead of 6% would be midway between those two outcomes so losses of c.200 would be ballpark. On top of which, there are then the gains that UKIP might make. If the elections were tomorrow, I'd reckon on perhaps 250 Lab losses.

Might I ask which wards the Wakefield Conservatives are targeting this year

I guess you're looking to make 4-5 gains ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakefield_Metropolitan_District_Council_election,_2012