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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn cannot afford to lose trade union support over Trident – it could be his undoing
Despite a difficult few days, Jeremy Corbyn seems to have emerged from last week’s reshuffle stronger than ever. He may not have got the Shadow Cabinet that he really wanted but piece by piece the Labour leader is shaping the party’s top team in his own image.
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Spurs - 1st!!0
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Looks like I was way too pessimistic about overly generous referees. Wow.0
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Man U should just be given a goal head-start in any game.0
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Lord no. You think LVG plays dull boring football now? Imagine if we had a lead to defend. 6-3-1 formation would look daring.Scrapheap_as_was said:Man U should just be given a goal head-start in any game.
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Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.0 -
FPT
If a backup tape did arrive at Fox, once they realized what it was they would immediately call the Feds - it contains much classified material, unauthorized possession of which is a criminal offense.Sandpit said:
Interesting. I guess it would be a complete co-incidence if Bill Clinton got very well paid for a speech in a country that then went on to benefit from State Aid, for example...Tim_B said:
It's #1.Sandpit said:
That was my thinking. One of two things. Either:taffys said:
1. Someone has emails *from* her or forwarded to them that should clearly be classified or show evidence of something illegal.
or
2. Someone comes forward from the time of Bill's impeachment with evidence that she did something she shouldn't have done, like paid someone to go away.
As an IT guy the whole email thing is still completely implausible - there's no way there's not backups somewhere.
It would be really easy for the republicans to campaign with a poster of Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright from House of Cards, with the Clintons' heads photoshopped on. That could be poisonous to Hilary.
The FBI has found something like 1500 emails with classified material in them, some of it Top Secret. That is ongoing.
The investigation has now expanded into 'public corruption' laws. The FBI are investigating the issuance of contracts by State at her time there, and contributions to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments plus speaking fees paid to Bill at that time.
The reason there are no backups is that the Clintons asked for them to be destroyed.
Can you comment on how the US law would work if a backup tape somehow found its way into the Fox News newsroom. Maybe a bag with a million dollars in cash 'disappeared' from Fox at around the same time. Would they be allowed to do anything with it, or would men in dark glasses start arresting executives until they gave up their source? How free is the US press in a post-Snowden world?
Let's be quite clear - they have her bang to rights on the emails with classified information, somewhere between 1350-1500. The reason for expanding the investigation and involving the Clinton Foundation is presumably because of stuff from the emails. This is potentially dangerous for her as the foundation is not set up like a charity, so much so that Charity Navigator refuses to rate it, as it's hard to track the money.
The FBI is not political. Director Comey is a straight shooter, as is AG Lynch. They will take their time, and will not move to indict unless their case is absolutely bullet proof.
If Comey and Lynch move to indict and the WH stops it - that will have serious implications. Obama is very unpopular with the FBI already.0 -
Or understood that shearing a sheep is indeed necessary to maintaining a healthy, even coat of wool and a healthy skin. But be fair, most of them have probably never even seen an animal.Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.0 -
Are they confusing sheepskin coats with wooly jumpers? Most of the sheepskin would end up on the butcher's floor anyway.Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.0 -
Never thought I'd see the day when Len was viewed as a moderating influence...0
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Informative, thanksTim_B said:FPT
If a backup tape did arrive at Fox, once they realized what it was they would immediately call the Feds - it contains much classified material, unauthorized possession of which is a criminal offense.Sandpit said:
Interesting. I guess it would be a complete co-incidence if Bill Clinton got very well paid for a speech in a country that then went on to benefit from State Aid, for example...Tim_B said:
It's #1.Sandpit said:
That was my thinking. One of two things. Either:taffys said:
1. Someone has emails *from* her or forwarded to them that should clearly be classified or show evidence of something illegal.
or
2. Someone comes forward from the time of Bill's impeachment with evidence that she did something she shouldn't have done, like paid someone to go away.
As an IT guy the whole email thing is still completely implausible - there's no way there's not backups somewhere.
.
The FBI has found something like 1500 emails with classified material in them, some of it Top Secret. That is ongoing.
The investigation has now expanded into 'public corruption' laws. The FBI are investigating the issuance of contracts by State at her time there, and contributions to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments plus speaking fees paid to Bill at that time.
The reason there are no backups is that the Clintons asked for them to be destroyed.
Can you comment on how the US law would work if a backup tape somehow found its way into the Fox News newsroom. Maybe a bag with a million dollars in cash 'disappeared' from Fox at around the same time. Would they be allowed to do anything with it, or would men in dark glasses start arresting executives until they gave up their source? How free is the US press in a post-Snowden world?
Let's be quite clear - they have her bang to rights on the emails with classified information, somewhere between 1350-1500. The reason for expanding the investigation and involving the Clinton Foundation is presumably because of stuff from the emails. This is potentially dangerous for her as the foundation is not set up like a charity, so much so that Charity Navigator refuses to rate it, as it's hard to track the money.
The FBI is not political. Director Comey is a straight shooter, as is AG Lynch. They will take their time, and will not move to indict unless their case is absolutely bullet proof.
If Comey and Lynch move to indict and the WH stops it - that will have serious implications. Obama is very unpopular with the FBI already.
The Feds or AG wouldn't be told to sit on their hands until after the election by the WH, surely?
That would lead to a challenge of the election itself if HRC won it, the Republicans would go absolutely ballistic!0 -
Whatever their own political views spending millions of their members hard earned on a party led by someone who makes Ed look good must make the Union leaders pause. Combine that with the current Trade Union bill going through Parliament and the desire for a party and leadership which actually has a chance must be strong.
It just might be the case that the nuclear deterrent is useful in moving the Party into the right direction.0 -
PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf0 -
Monmouth New Hampshire Democrats
Sanders 53%
Clinton 39%
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9f985b33-23bc-4c9f-961b-7edf1ab902d8.pdf0 -
On topic - outrage as unions seek to replace democratically elected political leader with a huge mandate....0
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Yes, this is looks like a tension between the wallet and politics.
Do GMB and UNITE have definite deadlines, or even the machinery, for a formal policy statement about Trident?0 -
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
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World has definitely when Uncle Len is the one saying come on Jez be reasonable.0
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Lol!Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.
I'm having belly pork this evening. Yum.0 -
If the WH tried to do that it would be leaked immediately. That's a plain miscarriage of justice.Sandpit said:
Informative, thanksTim_B said:FPT
If a backup tape did arrive at Fox, once they realized what it was they would immediately call the Feds - it contains much classified material, unauthorized possession of which is a criminal offense.Sandpit said:
Interesting. I guess it would be a complete co-incidence if Bill Clinton got very well paid for a speech in a country that then went on to benefit from State Aid, for example...Tim_B said:
It's #1.Sandpit said:taffys said:
The FBI has found something like 1500 emails with classified material in them, some of it Top Secret. That is ongoing.
The investigation has now expanded into 'public corruption' laws. The FBI are investigating the issuance of contracts by State at her time there, and contributions to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments plus speaking fees paid to Bill at that time.
The reason there are no backups is that the Clintons asked for them to be destroyed.
Can you comment on how the US law would work if a backup tape somehow found its way into the Fox News newsroom. Maybe a bag with a million dollars in cash 'disappeared' from Fox at around the same time. Would they be allowed to do anything with it, or would men in dark glasses start arresting executives until they gave up their source? How free is the US press in a post-Snowden world?
Let's be quite clear - they have her bang to rights on the emails with classified information, somewhere between 1350-1500. The reason for expanding the investigation and involving the Clinton Foundation is presumably because of stuff from the emails. This is potentially dangerous for her as the foundation is not set up like a charity, so much so that Charity Navigator refuses to rate it, as it's hard to track the money.
The FBI is not political. Director Comey is a straight shooter, as is AG Lynch. They will take their time, and will not move to indict unless their case is absolutely bullet proof.
If Comey and Lynch move to indict and the WH stops it - that will have serious implications. Obama is very unpopular with the FBI already.
The Feds or AG wouldn't be told to sit on their hands until after the election by the WH, surely?
That would lead to a challenge of the election itself if HRC won it, the Republicans would go absolutely ballistic!0 -
Trident is not a priority for the majority of voters, including me.
I'm a supporter of nuclear weapons, but since the cold war is over it's not my priority in defence matters.
That's the problem with people trying to make it an issue for votes, people are not interested over Trident, I can't understand why Corbyn and anti-Corbyn's think it is.0 -
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf0 -
Great post from Keiran Pedley. This is important.
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.0 -
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.0 -
They are proper bonkers that lot. I once had a conservation with a supporter where I asked if it would be acceptable if one owned a single cow & milked by hand for subsistence & was basically told still basically raping a cow...Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.0 -
For me I can't understand why they think there is any appeal in this marginal issue almost 30 years since the cold war ended.AlastairMeeks said:Great post from Keiran Pedley. This is important.
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.
Perhaps because I'm a bread and butter kind of voter.0 -
It's udder nonsenseFrancisUrquhart said:
They are proper bonkers that lot. I once had a conservation with a supporter where I asked if it would be acceptable if one owned a single cow & milked by hand for subsistence & was basically told still basically raping a cow...Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.
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LOL...I did nearly said, but plants have feelings to as they were drinking their soya latte...Tim_B said:
It's udder nonsenseFrancisUrquhart said:
They are proper bonkers that lot. I once had a conservation with a supporter where I asked if it would be acceptable if one owned a single cow & milked by hand for subsistence & was basically told still basically raping a cow...Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.0 -
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It only adds to the impression that Corbyn will play fast and lose with our defences and in this uncertain World that is a huge vote loserSpeedy said:
For me I can't understand why they think there is any appeal in this marginal issue almost 30 years since the cold war ended.AlastairMeeks said:Great post from Keiran Pedley. This is important.
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.
Perhaps because I'm a bread and butter kind of voter.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn probably regards support for Trident as an affront to his conscience. The unions are worried about the threat to jobs.Speedy said:
For me I can't understand why they think there is any appeal in this marginal issue almost 30 years since the cold war ended.AlastairMeeks said:Great post from Keiran Pedley. This is important.
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.
Perhaps because I'm a bread and butter kind of voter.0 -
There's something in that. It's why we need to get it sorted soon, rather than have it monopolise the autumn conference. Like a Government, a significantly changed Opposition needs to get the controversial stuff done quickly.Speedy said:Trident is not a priority for the majority of voters, including me.
I'm a supporter of nuclear weapons, but since the cold war is over it's not my priority in defence matters.
That's the problem with people trying to make it an issue for votes, people are not interested over Trident, I can't understand why Corbyn and anti-Corbyn's think it is.0 -
Another unfortunate piece of timing for Hillary - the Benghazi movie '13 Hours' opens this week.0
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At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.0 -
''For me I can't understand why they think there is any appeal in this marginal issue almost 30 years since the cold war ended.''
Nuclear weapons is all about being able to p8ss in the tall grass with the big dogs.0 -
Whilst I agree Trident in itself is not a big issue for voters, the problem is it plays into the negative perceptions people already have about Corbyn on issues like this (I don't think people think he's an "evil terrorist sympathiser", but they do think he's dangerously naive and would, even with the best intentions, leave the country vulnerable to attack).0
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Off-topic: an interesting piece on the problems facing Saudi Arabia, and a prince-who-might-be-king who is looking towards some limited reforms:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21685467-muhammad-bin-salman-gambles-intervention-abroad-and-radical-economic-change-home
And an interview:
http://www.economist.com/saudi_interview
So it looks like they're doing a China: keep the political and social fabric in place, whilst overhauling the economy. Unfortunately for them, it's probably two decade too late.0 -
@MrTCHarris: Why doesn't Len McCluskey just go and join the Tories? https://t.co/rLmdoLXKNF0
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That 'new' PETA campaign is actually from April 2015, is Australian and is aimed at ill-treatment of sheep during shearing rather than suggesting sheep have to be skinned to obtain wool.Sean_F said:Completely O/T but I've just seen the new PETA campaign " this is what the rest of your wool coat looks like" featuring a skinned, blood-spattered lamb.
They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.
Minor details I know.0 -
Great piece Keiran.
This has all the makings of a Mexican stand off.
What a world we live in when the the trade unions are seen as the voice of moderation.0 -
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Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg0 -
ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
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Who says ISIS are a death cult?HYUFD said:ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
Sounds more like he's trolling Wee Willie 'destroying the United Kingdom ' Hague.TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that only PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg0 -
Cameron having two lumps of sugar rather than one represents a material change....TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg 0 -
I had a Tunnocks tea cake tonight.RobD said:
Cameron having two lumps of sugar rather than one represents a material change....TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg
Taste so much better since they became British.0 -
@TenaciousTory: #BoycottTunnocks going well in Edinburgh ... Sold OutTheScreamingEagles said:I had a Tunnocks tea cake tonight.
Taste so much better since they became British.0 -
Who says Pete Wishart is the stupidest MP at Westminster?
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2014: “An issue that the Scottish people could not care less about”. 1/2
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2016: "nothing has infuriated the scottish people more than ... english votes for english laws" 2/20 -
I had a pack of six last week - spread across two daysTheScreamingEagles said:
I had a Tunnocks tea cake tonight.RobD said:
Cameron having two lumps of sugar rather than one represents a material change....TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg
Taste so much better since they became British.
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Moderate Republicans are in fact the main support base for Mr TrumpHYUFD said:
At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses0 -
"You have failed me for the last time, Admiral!" - Darth Vader in Empire Strikes Back (Star Wars Episode V).HYUFD said:ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
Hopefully this will set a trend and they will end up exterminating themselvesFrancisUrquhart said:
Who says ISIS are a death cult?HYUFD said:ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
Not at all. It is a return to the entire history of the Labour Party pre-94TheScreamingEagles said:Great piece Keiran.
This has all the makings of a Mexican stand off.
What a world we live in when the the trade unions are seen as the voice of moderation.0 -
You are talking about the median Republican voter, ideologically more moderate Republicans ie country club types, wealthy suburbanites, fiscally conservative but not intrinsically anti immigration, may well be tempted by BloombergEPG said:
Moderate Republicans are in fact the main support base for Mr TrumpHYUFD said:
At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses0 -
Did anything politically change in Scotland between 2014 and 2016?Scott_P said:Who says Pete Wishart is the stupidest MP at Westminster?
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2014: “An issue that the Scottish people could not care less about”. 1/2
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2016: "nothing has infuriated the scottish people more than ... english votes for english laws" 2/20 -
I disagree. If the trade unions had been voice of moderation in 1978, then Jim Callaghan might well have won the 1979 general election, and we'd have had no ThatcherismEPG said:
Not at all. It is a return to the entire history of the Labour Party pre-94TheScreamingEagles said:Great piece Keiran.
This has all the makings of a Mexican stand off.
What a world we live in when the the trade unions are seen as the voice of moderation.0 -
I think the polling evidence is that moderate Republicans favour Trump more than conservative Republicans.HYUFD said:
You are talking about the median Republican voter, ideologically more moderate Republicans ie country club types, wealthy suburbanites, fiscally conservative but not intrinsically anti immigration, may well be tempted by BloombergEPG said:
Moderate Republicans are in fact the main support base for Mr TrumpHYUFD said:
At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses
In fact, I think the very strongest support comes from self-identified Democrats who vote in Republican primaries elections (which is possible in some states - these people tend to be blue-collar white voters in red states).0 -
They did yeah, that's why there's a Conservative Holyrood Majority 2016 Nailed On. It's the funniest definition of gubbed I've seen, what should the normal level of separatism from the UK be if four-in-nine is pathetically low?Scott_P said:
The separatists got gubbed.EPG said:Did anything politically change in Scotland between 2014 and 2016?
0 -
Times ten!Sunil_Prasannan said:
"You have failed me for the last time, Admiral!" - Darth Vader in Empire Strikes Back (Star Wars Episode V).HYUFD said:ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
Over 50% in the referendum is what it was meant to be. Failure is failure.EPG said:
They did yeah, that's why there's a Conservative Holyrood Majority 2016 Nailed On. It's the funniest definition of gubbed I've seen, what should the normal level of separatism from the UK be if four-in-nine is pathetically low?Scott_P said:
The separatists got gubbed.EPG said:Did anything politically change in Scotland between 2014 and 2016?
0 -
Not to the Zoomers! Failure last time was their greatest success, apparently...Philip_Thompson said:Failure is failure.
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Ahem. The UK wasn't asked.EPG said:
They did yeah, that's why there's a Conservative Holyrood Majority 2016 Nailed On. It's the funniest definition of gubbed I've seen, what should the normal level of separatism from the UK be if four-in-nine is pathetically low?Scott_P said:
The separatists got gubbed.EPG said:Did anything politically change in Scotland between 2014 and 2016?
Pardon me butting in, couldn't resist.0 -
if EVEL infuriates the Jocks then its a job well done.EPG said:
Did anything politically change in Scotland between 2014 and 2016?Scott_P said:Who says Pete Wishart is the stupidest MP at Westminster?
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2014: “An issue that the Scottish people could not care less about”. 1/2
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2016: "nothing has infuriated the scottish people more than ... english votes for english laws" 2/20 -
This is the level of analysis I would expect from a Guidosphere retweeting machineScott_P said:
Not to the Zoomers! Failure last time was their greatest success, apparently...Philip_Thompson said:Failure is failure.
The probability of medium-term Scottish exit from UK was higher at end of 2014 than at beginning of 2014 never mind the impact of GE20150 -
Scots couldn't care lessSquareRoot said:if EVEL infuriates the Jocks then its a job well done.
Oh, wait, they have never been more infuriated...0 -
More British than you'll ever be, hell they're more english than you.TheScreamingEagles said:
I had a Tunnocks tea cake tonight.RobD said:
Cameron having two lumps of sugar rather than one represents a material change....TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Lawson trolls the Nats in a way that PB thread header writers wish they could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg
Taste so much better since they became British.0 -
White working class Democrats are often conservative and often vote Republican at the Presidential level, they are not moderatesEPG said:
I think the polling evidence is that moderate Republicans favour Trump more than conservative Republicans.HYUFD said:
You are talking about the median Republican voter, ideologically more moderate Republicans ie country club types, wealthy suburbanites, fiscally conservative but not intrinsically anti immigration, may well be tempted by BloombergEPG said:
Moderate Republicans are in fact the main support base for Mr TrumpHYUFD said:
At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses
In fact, I think the very strongest support comes from self-identified Democrats who vote in Republican primaries elections (which is possible in some states - these people tend to be blue-collar white voters in red states).0 -
Not ofter I agree with you, Mr Eagles, but I do on this one. The Labour Government under Jim Callaghan, was one of the best this country has known. The only policies they could implement - during the Lib-Lab pact - were Labour policies that were approved by the Liberals. Most of the time, they just governed quietly, without too much change.TheScreamingEagles said:If the trade unions had been voice of moderation in 1978, then Jim Callaghan might well have won the 1979 general election, and we'd have had no Thatcherism
The total idiots were those of the far left of the Labour Party plus the Trade Union leaders, who thought there was still a red-blooded Socialist government in office, and behaved accordingly. Hence the Winter of Discontent, and the consequent advent of the Thatcher government.
History could have been very different. But the idiots on the Far Left of the Labour Party understand little and always ruin everything. And History repeats itself.0 -
so if Trident, say, didn't involve jobs would Len be for or against?
The depressing thing is that in those calculations there seems to be no room for concerns about national security.
Enough to make me think he is a beer and sandwiches-eating surrender monkey, if his support for a strategic defence programme is only contingent upon how many jobs it provides for his members.
Off to the tower for him.0 -
The only concern is they continue to get a flood of new recruits to replace those they kill. We have already had reports that those that control ISIS already use recruits from certain parts of the world as cannon fodder, with the justification that they are lesser because they aren't direct descendants. While other are not used for suicide bombing etc. It could be they are massively racist or it could be that they are keeping those that are more useful to them more out of the fire line, or most likely both.HYUFD said:
Hopefully this will set a trend and they will end up exterminating themselvesFrancisUrquhart said:
Who says ISIS are a death cult?HYUFD said:ISIS sets fire to its own fighters after they lost Ramadi and fled to Mosul
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html0 -
Chris Patten proves that he's a top egg
Oxford will not rewrite history says Oxford Chancellor, Lord Patten, #RhodesMustNotFall
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjR8WQW8AY-ug3.jpg0 -
I see Standard Chartered have made predictions that oil could fall to $10 a barrel.
Imagine if the McLemmings had followed Alec and Nicola over the cliff of independence. The Arc of Prosperity, would be the U Bend of Bankruptcy.0 -
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Re the Health strike, an interesting article here (I hope):
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/455346/how-the-nhs-strike-could-make-or-break-jeremy-hunt.thtml0 -
On topic, I don't think a lost Trident vote would be critical for Corbyn. He'd still say he wouldn't use it.0
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Well there's 55 others equally as stupid to choose from.Scott_P said:Who says Pete Wishart is the stupidest MP at Westminster?
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2014: “An issue that the Scottish people could not care less about”. 1/2
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2016: "nothing has infuriated the scottish people more than ... english votes for english laws" 2/20 -
It depends what is meant by "moderates". They're probably well to the Left of the Republican establishment on economics, not devoutly religious, but are fired up about immigration and national security issues.HYUFD said:
White working class Democrats are often conservative and often vote Republican at the Presidential level, they are not moderatesEPG said:
I think the polling evidence is that moderate Republicans favour Trump more than conservative Republicans.HYUFD said:
You are talking about the median Republican voter, ideologically more moderate Republicans ie country club types, wealthy suburbanites, fiscally conservative but not intrinsically anti immigration, may well be tempted by BloombergEPG said:
Moderate Republicans are in fact the main support base for Mr TrumpHYUFD said:
At the moment that seems the case, Bloomberg would win some moderate Republicans too, not just centrist Democrats so I don't think that would be enough to overturn a 5% Sanders lead over TrumpSpeedy said:
Sanders is more electable than Hillary, fact.HYUFD said:
PPP Iowa General ElectionSpeedy said:
Quinnipiac for Iowa is big too:HYUFD said:PPP Iowa
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses
In fact, I think the very strongest support comes from self-identified Democrats who vote in Republican primaries elections (which is possible in some states - these people tend to be blue-collar white voters in red states).
My understanding is that Trump doesn't poll so strongly with the voters who are more ideologically conservative (who would favour Cruz).0 -
He just needs to tell them he'd preserve the jobs. Not difficult.0
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Because the £30 billion could be far, far better spent elsewhere if not first on defence equipment that will actually be useful and be used.Speedy said:
For me I can't understand why they think there is any appeal in this marginal issue almost 30 years since the cold war ended.AlastairMeeks said:Great post from Keiran Pedley. This is important.
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.
Perhaps because I'm a bread and butter kind of voter.0 -
Yes I could see how that would be ok for him: vote for a party that would spend £100bn on something they wouldn't use.david_herdson said:On topic, I don't think a lost Trident vote would be critical for Corbyn. He'd still say he wouldn't use it.
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They should put the plaque back as well. Bloody vandals.TheScreamingEagles said:Chris Patten proves that he's a top egg
Oxford will not rewrite history says Oxford Chancellor, Lord Patten, #RhodesMustNotFall
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjR8WQW8AY-ug3.jpg0 -
So what lies behind the sudden swing to Sanders?0
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What the hell is wrong with the US Armed forces these days, have they been poisoned by Obama politics?
https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/6870321166353735680 -
On topic: I don't see how France is any safer than Germany.0
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Whatever you think about Trident it's completely bizarre to decide it's future based on jobs.
Suppose we spent £5 billion per year employing people to count lamp-posts (or some other pointless activity).
Would we say we must carry on counting lamp-posts because if we don't it'll cost jobs?
The answer is that if an activity has no purpose it should be stopped and resources redirected to something which does have a purpose.
Now I personally think Trident is worthwhile - but that is a separate issue.0 -
Sanders v Trump would produce a lot of pretty odd results, State by State.MaxPB said:
Could be Hilary's emails. Seems to be getting a lot of airtime in the US, or more radical Dems think Trump will get the nomination so they are free to put up their extreme leftist up to oppose him.Sean_F said:So what lies behind the sudden swing to Sanders?
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Ind Gain New York & California being amongst them.Sean_F said:
Sanders v Trump would produce a lot of pretty odd results, State by State.MaxPB said:
Could be Hilary's emails. Seems to be getting a lot of airtime in the US, or more radical Dems think Trump will get the nomination so they are free to put up their extreme leftist up to oppose him.Sean_F said:So what lies behind the sudden swing to Sanders?
0 -
might give some enlightenmentMikeK said:What the hell is wrong with the US Armed forces these days, have they been poisoned by Obama politics?
https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/687032116635373568
foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/12/obamas-failed-command-military-state-of-the-union/0 -
Very interesting indeed.david_herdson said:Re the Health strike, an interesting article here (I hope):
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/455346/how-the-nhs-strike-could-make-or-break-jeremy-hunt.thtml
I think the doctors' have the upper hand at present. It must be an unwelcome development for them, however, that Labour has decided to stick its nose in. Labour supporters will be almost unanimous in backing the strike anyway. The appearance of John McDonnell on picket lines will not attract any support but may repel centrists and conservatives.
I'm very struck by your point that Hunt's colleagues will expect some show of resistance from him. It's true of course but I'd somewhat lost sight of that amidst the excitement. In the end this is just another public sector strike and no government wants to be seen to be a push-over, so he has to resist to some extent, yet not have the public conclude he is gambling their lives in a display of pointless intransigence. Tricky.
Hunt strikes me as a clever politician but not a potential Prime Minister. Against Corbyn though ....0 -
He's said something like that but they don't believe him. Being believed can be very difficult.Luckyguy1983 said:He just needs to tell them he'd preserve the jobs. Not difficult.
0 -
Of course they are, so are we. Both by virtue of our permanent UNSC seats and vetoes. Germany has no such power despite having a larger economy and population than either of us. Part of the reason the EU is so desperate to integrate the EU foreign policy and military objectives is so they can take over two seats on the UNSC giving the likes of Germany and other EU nations a say where they previously didn't have one.Pulpstar said:On topic: I don't see how France is any safer than Germany.
Our nation is kept safe by having a nuclear deterrent, of that I'm sure. Even the most recent poll showed that the public would be in favour of retaliating against a nuclear strike with one of our own, the will of the people and the resolve of the governments lets rogue countries like Iran and Pakistan know that we won't be cowed by any threats.0 -
What would those people do? Dig holes and fill them back up?Luckyguy1983 said:He just needs to tell them he'd preserve the jobs. Not difficult.
0 -
On topic, the strangest thing of all is that Labour should bang its head into the wall on Trident when it has no say in the matter and won't until it gets back into government. People talk as they are deciding whether to renew Trident. They are not. They are deciding whether, hypothetically, they would if they happened to be in power.
The answer is to kick the issue into the very long grass.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.