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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn cannot afford to lose trade union support over Trident – it could be his undoing
Despite a difficult few days, Jeremy Corbyn seems to have emerged from last week’s reshuffle stronger than ever. He may not have got the Shadow Cabinet that he really wanted but piece by piece the Labour leader is shaping the party’s top team in his own image.
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They've clearly never seen a sheep shorn.
Let's be quite clear - they have her bang to rights on the emails with classified information, somewhere between 1350-1500. The reason for expanding the investigation and involving the Clinton Foundation is presumably because of stuff from the emails. This is potentially dangerous for her as the foundation is not set up like a charity, so much so that Charity Navigator refuses to rate it, as it's hard to track the money.
The FBI is not political. Director Comey is a straight shooter, as is AG Lynch. They will take their time, and will not move to indict unless their case is absolutely bullet proof.
If Comey and Lynch move to indict and the WH stops it - that will have serious implications. Obama is very unpopular with the FBI already.
The Feds or AG wouldn't be told to sit on their hands until after the election by the WH, surely?
That would lead to a challenge of the election itself if HRC won it, the Republicans would go absolutely ballistic!
It just might be the case that the nuclear deterrent is useful in moving the Party into the right direction.
GOP
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Democratic
Clinton 46%
Sanders 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Sanders 53%
Clinton 39%
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9f985b33-23bc-4c9f-961b-7edf1ab902d8.pdf
Do GMB and UNITE have definite deadlines, or even the machinery, for a formal policy statement about Trident?
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Sanders 49 +9
Hillary 44 -7
The wind is blowing in Sanders sail, average today 7.5 points up in Iowa.
I'm having belly pork this evening. Yum.
I'm a supporter of nuclear weapons, but since the cold war is over it's not my priority in defence matters.
That's the problem with people trying to make it an issue for votes, people are not interested over Trident, I can't understand why Corbyn and anti-Corbyn's think it is.
Clinton 41% Rubio 46%
Clinton 42% Trump 42%
Clinton 42% Cruz 45%
Clinton 42% Carson 46%
Clinton 40% Bush 43%
Sanders 47% Bush 39%
Sanders 44% Carson 40%
Sanders 45% Cruz 42%
Sanders 43% Rubio 42%
Sanders 47% Trump 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
I can't see Jeremy Corbyn backing down. This could be a huge fist fight.
Trump must go easy on Hillary or pray for Bloomberg to run and split the DNC vote.
Perhaps because I'm a bread and butter kind of voter.
The 2016 presidential election looks more and more like a choice between a Socialist and a Populist.
Nuclear weapons is all about being able to p8ss in the tall grass with the big dogs.
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21685467-muhammad-bin-salman-gambles-intervention-abroad-and-radical-economic-change-home
And an interview:
http://www.economist.com/saudi_interview
So it looks like they're doing a China: keep the political and social fabric in place, whilst overhauling the economy. Unfortunately for them, it's probably two decade too late.
Minor details I know.
This has all the makings of a Mexican stand off.
What a world we live in when the the trade unions are seen as the voice of moderation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjEicyW8AItY1r.jpg
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395220/ISIS-burns-alive-fighters-losing-Ramadi-Iraqi-troops-fled-terror-group-s-stronghold-Mosul.html
Taste so much better since they became British.
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2014: “An issue that the Scottish people could not care less about”. 1/2
@johnpmcdermott: Peter Wishart on Evel, 2016: "nothing has infuriated the scottish people more than ... english votes for english laws" 2/2
Because if you are moderate in the Republican Party, it probably means you are economic centre or populist but interested in the identity politics he espouses
In fact, I think the very strongest support comes from self-identified Democrats who vote in Republican primaries elections (which is possible in some states - these people tend to be blue-collar white voters in red states).
Pardon me butting in, couldn't resist.
The probability of medium-term Scottish exit from UK was higher at end of 2014 than at beginning of 2014 never mind the impact of GE2015
Oh, wait, they have never been more infuriated...
The total idiots were those of the far left of the Labour Party plus the Trade Union leaders, who thought there was still a red-blooded Socialist government in office, and behaved accordingly. Hence the Winter of Discontent, and the consequent advent of the Thatcher government.
History could have been very different. But the idiots on the Far Left of the Labour Party understand little and always ruin everything. And History repeats itself.
The depressing thing is that in those calculations there seems to be no room for concerns about national security.
Enough to make me think he is a beer and sandwiches-eating surrender monkey, if his support for a strategic defence programme is only contingent upon how many jobs it provides for his members.
Off to the tower for him.
Oxford will not rewrite history says Oxford Chancellor, Lord Patten, #RhodesMustNotFall
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYjR8WQW8AY-ug3.jpg
Imagine if the McLemmings had followed Alec and Nicola over the cliff of independence. The Arc of Prosperity, would be the U Bend of Bankruptcy.
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/455346/how-the-nhs-strike-could-make-or-break-jeremy-hunt.thtml
My understanding is that Trump doesn't poll so strongly with the voters who are more ideologically conservative (who would favour Cruz).
https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/687032116635373568
Suppose we spent £5 billion per year employing people to count lamp-posts (or some other pointless activity).
Would we say we must carry on counting lamp-posts because if we don't it'll cost jobs?
The answer is that if an activity has no purpose it should be stopped and resources redirected to something which does have a purpose.
Now I personally think Trident is worthwhile - but that is a separate issue.
foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/12/obamas-failed-command-military-state-of-the-union/
I think the doctors' have the upper hand at present. It must be an unwelcome development for them, however, that Labour has decided to stick its nose in. Labour supporters will be almost unanimous in backing the strike anyway. The appearance of John McDonnell on picket lines will not attract any support but may repel centrists and conservatives.
I'm very struck by your point that Hunt's colleagues will expect some show of resistance from him. It's true of course but I'd somewhat lost sight of that amidst the excitement. In the end this is just another public sector strike and no government wants to be seen to be a push-over, so he has to resist to some extent, yet not have the public conclude he is gambling their lives in a display of pointless intransigence. Tricky.
Hunt strikes me as a clever politician but not a potential Prime Minister. Against Corbyn though ....
Our nation is kept safe by having a nuclear deterrent, of that I'm sure. Even the most recent poll showed that the public would be in favour of retaliating against a nuclear strike with one of our own, the will of the people and the resolve of the governments lets rogue countries like Iran and Pakistan know that we won't be cowed by any threats.
The answer is to kick the issue into the very long grass.
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/687038134085881857