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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not inconceivable that in a year’s time there’ll be a new CON leader and PM
There’s is a widespread view that if the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable. If that happens then we could only be months away from the first Conservative leadership contest since 2005 in which the party would not just be choosing a new leader but the next prime minister.
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First ..... again!0
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"Cameron: We have no Brexit plan
David Cameron has been accused of being “nothing short of irresponsible” after indicating that the government had not made any preparations should Britain vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4661769.ece0 -
Richard III0
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I am presuming somebody has fired the low orbit ion cannon at the BBC again. Perhaps it was Jahadi Jez's lot, angered at the scum bag BBC engineering that resignation?0
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"If the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable"
I agree with this premise and feel sure that David Cameron would agree too. Assuming the referendum were to be held in September 2016, which appears to be the favoured date assuming the current negotiations are satisfactorily concluded by the end of next month which is the stated objective, then were he to lose the vote, it would seem likely that the Prime Minister would choose to leave office during the first half of 2017, enabling him, as far as was possible, to influence the person chosen to succeed him.
In such circumstances Hills' decimal odds of 9.0, or 8/1 in old money, on his "ceasing to be leader of the Tory Party" in 2017" appears to offer certain attractions.
For one thing, this is far more generous than Ladbrokes' equivalent bet offering 7.0 (or 6/1) against "David Cameron leaving his post as Prime Minister in 2017", and very substantially better than the best odds of around 2/1 currently available against a bare Brexit vote.
As is often the case, I am finding that Hills are severely limiting my stakes on such a bet, although others may have more success - but in any event DYOR beforehand!0 -
Nah, Jihadi Jez and his friends couldn't organise the proverbial party in the beer-making facility, there's no chance they could organise a DDOS against the BBC.FrancisUrquhart said:I am presuming somebody has fired the low orbit ion cannon at the BBC again. Perhaps it was Jahadi Jez's lot, angered at the scum bag BBC engineering that resignation?
The question does remain, who is doing it though - this is what, three times so far this year..?
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The Seamus Milne School of Immaculate Media Management.....part 99:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35278120
A series of foul-mouthed posts have been published on Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter feed following the apparent hacking of the Labour leader's account.
The infiltration began shortly after 21:00 GMT, and at least four messages were broadcast to his 384,000 followers.
One mocked Prime Minister David Cameron by stating: "davey cameron is a pie".0 -
This could be interesting politics. Boris takes aim at the BMA in no uncertain terms:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
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On topic - I'm not so sure Cameron would resign (remember the poster who thought he'd have to resign because of a horse...) after all, he promised a referendum (not delivering one should be a resigning matter - but none of his similarly placed predecessors did.....) and if the British people decide to quit 'one crisis will be enough to be going on with...'0
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Would other political leaders who had recommended 'stay' similarly resign?peter_from_putney said:"If the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable"
I agree with this premise and feel sure that David Cameron would agree too.
Of course not......0 -
It´s all very strange. Cameron is negotiating with the EU countries, and even now we have no idea what his objectives are, so no way of coming to any conclusion about whether he is eventually successful or not.
Unless he has completely sewn himself up in a corner (before even starting), or if the whole negotiation process is a fraud (as some have alleged), nobody knows at this stage if Cameron is sucessful or not in his negotiations. So, if Cameron is dealing honestly, not even he knows whether he will recommend Leave or Remain.
So I feel it is somewhat premature to say, at this stage, that Cameron must resign if the referendum votes for Leave. That may well be the answer that Cameron finally recommends to us.
I wish we had a Prime Minister who really did know what he wanted to do. Cameron is just so feeble.0 -
I think his decision to resign or not will depend on how his party reacts to the negotiations and campaign.CarlottaVance said:On topic - I'm not so sure Cameron would resign (remember the poster who thought he'd have to resign because of a horse...) after all, he promised a referendum (not delivering one should be a resigning matter - but none of his similarly placed predecessors did.....) and if the British people decide to quit 'one crisis will be enough to be going on with...'
If they can hold together and have their internal disagreements politely then the PM could stay on whatever the result, the people having spoken etc.
However if it turns into a Tory bloodbath to rival what Labour are going through right now, with briefings and counter-briefings, MPs accusing the leadership of being dishonest liars, stitching up the negotiations etc. then Cameron's position will be untenable if his 'side' doesn't win the referendum.
So it's basically up to party management whether he goes or not, which is why he's trying desperately now to keep a lid on public disagreement and stop the the mud from flying while the negotiations are still happening.0 -
Interesting chart in that article:Sandpit said:This could be interesting politics. Boris takes aim at the BMA in no uncertain terms:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03451/nhschart_3451410b.jpg
It would appear that the dispute is about whether 6am-7am and 7pm-10pm and Saturdays and Sundays could be considered 'normal' work hours. I wonder what people who work in shops, restaurants or cafes (or indeed salaried management in other businesses) think about that?0 -
I think that's fair - the Conservatives tested to destruction 'Party not fit for Government' in the mid-nineties, so there is the wane hope they have learned from their lesson.....Sandpit said:
So it's basically up to party management whether he goes or not, which is why he's trying desperately now to keep a lid on public disagreement and stop the the mud from flying while the negotiations are still happening.CarlottaVance said:On topic - I'm not so sure Cameron would resign (remember the poster who thought he'd have to resign because of a horse...) after all, he promised a referendum (not delivering one should be a resigning matter - but none of his similarly placed predecessors did.....) and if the British people decide to quit 'one crisis will be enough to be going on with...'
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But David Cameron has personally led all the negotiations with the other EU leaders and as such he would inevitably be viewed as having failed were the British people to decide that the terms he was recommending were ultimately found to be unacceptable.CarlottaVance said:
Would other political leaders who had recommended 'stay' similarly resign?peter_from_putney said:"If the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable"
I agree with this premise and feel sure that David Cameron would agree too.
Of course not......
From a betting perspective there is a further angle to this - were the referendum to result in a Remain vote, it is quite conceivable that David Cameron might then conclude that the major task he faced in his second term had been satisfactorily concluded and that by say May 2017, after 7 long years as Prime Minister, it was time to call it a day and step aside.
Let us not forget that, perhaps unwisely, it was his stated intention to leave office during his second term (which with hindsight, perhaps both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair might have been best advised to consider also), before backing away from this plan of action for understandable political reasons. It is not unreasonable to believe that this nevertheless remains his preferred option, particularly if it is one shared by his wife.
Whichever way one looks at it, 2017 at 8/1 (i.e. an 11% probability) looks to me to be a reasonable bet, but like I say DYOR.0 -
I'm not sure that certain parts of the public sector understand the transformation in the last decade or so, in terms of the work patterns of the average man or the expectations of service delivery. Even banks in major towns are now open Saturdays and increasingly Sundays.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting chart in that article:Sandpit said:This could be interesting politics. Boris takes aim at the BMA in no uncertain terms:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03451/nhschart_3451410b.jpg
It would appear that the dispute is about whether 6am-7am and 7pm-10pm and Saturdays and Sundays could be considered 'normal' work hours. I wonder what people who work in shops, restaurants or cafes (or indeed salaried management in other businesses) think about that?
The government has a point that the public's expectations are for the same seven-day working patterns in the NHS as the police, fire and other vital services. They have apparently good statistics to back up their argument and it's actually leading to people dying.
The doctors may have good arguments for their position, but to an outsider it looks like Luddite bleating in the face of progress and wishing to maintain lucrative 'out of hours' payments and private work - or even second jobs such as the wedding photographer. That they have a bunch of people at the BMA who are clearly Corbynites out to bash the government really doesn't help their cause much either. The public's view of doctors from various surveys is so high because they have a record of being above things like strikes.0 -
Yes, there is a bit of a disconnect, and its been going on longer than a decade. Ask (almost) anyone in business if they only 'worked' between 9am - 5pm and they'd laugh at you. Up 5.30am for the early flight - home by 10pm - did we get 'time off in lieu' or 'overtime'? Did we buggery! The sainted Doctors may be tarnishing their halos......Sandpit said:
I'm not sure that certain parts of the public sector understand the transformation in the last decade or so, in terms of the work patterns of the average man or the expectations of service delivery. Even banks in major towns are now open Saturdays and increasingly Sundays.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting chart in that article:Sandpit said:This could be interesting politics. Boris takes aim at the BMA in no uncertain terms:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03451/nhschart_3451410b.jpg
It would appear that the dispute is about whether 6am-7am and 7pm-10pm and Saturdays and Sundays could be considered 'normal' work hours. I wonder what people who work in shops, restaurants or cafes (or indeed salaried management in other businesses) think about that?0 -
Never underestimate a politician's vanity, or belief in their indispensability (honourable exception, Clemenceau...) - which is why I think your second scenario - 'resign after referendum success - my work is done' is the more likely scenario......which since I recon we will vote to remain......peter_from_putney said:
From a betting perspective there is a further angle to this - were the referendum to result in a Remain vote, it is quite conceivable that David Cameron might then conclude that the major task he faced in his second term had been satisfactorily concluded and that by say May 2017, after 7 long years as Prime Minister, it was time to call it a day and step aside.CarlottaVance said:
Would other political leaders who had recommended 'stay' similarly resign?peter_from_putney said:"If the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable"
I agree with this premise and feel sure that David Cameron would agree too.
Of course not......0 -
Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Don't know thw details as the article is paywalled - perhaps a subscriber would kindly oblige?
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He said as much on Marr yesterday. That he promised a referendum which will be delivered, and that - while he will have a view - it's for the people to decide which road to take and the government (his government) will respect the outcome of the public vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Don't know thw details as the article is paywalled - perhaps a subscriber would kindly oblige?0 -
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
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Thanks Mr Sandpit for the heads up – Apparently in the Marr interview the PM was asked if he would remain in No 10 if voters decided to leave, he said: “The answer to that is yes.” - Seems clear enough.Sandpit said:
He said as much on Marr yesterday. That he promised a referendum which will be delivered, and that - while he will have a view - it's for the people to decide which road to take and the government (his government) will respect the outcome of the public vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Don't know thw details as the article is paywalled - perhaps a subscriber would kindly oblige?
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Yes, that's what he said. Found the video!SimonStClare said:
Thanks Mr Sandpit for the heads up – Apparently in the Marr interview the PM was asked if he would remain in No 10 if voters decided to leave, he said: “The answer to that is yes.” - Seems clear enough.Sandpit said:
He said as much on Marr yesterday. That he promised a referendum which will be delivered, and that - while he will have a view - it's for the people to decide which road to take and the government (his government) will respect the outcome of the public vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Don't know thw details as the article is paywalled - perhaps a subscriber would kindly oblige?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tADiQrmlEQ0 -
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.0 -
Doesn't any responsible British Government have an undeniable duty to have detailed plans in place to deal with a Brexit vote by its own people.
To admit that it does not surely beggars belief? Even were it to state that, rather like the Irish, we'd simply have another referendum until we came up with the right answer would be better than nothing!0 -
Why? They didn't for SINDYRef - and that worked out fine.peter_from_putney said:Doesn't any responsible British Government have an undeniable duty to have detailed plans in place to deal with a Brexit vote by its own people.
If he says 'Yes' we immediately get into 'what are they? and 'whataboutery' from here to kingdom come.
Surely its the job of 'Leave' to paint a picture of what it would mean?
Oh, I see your problem......0 -
Of course! Its 'partisan Tories' fault, - not 'Union members who don't(or can't be bothered to) support Labour:
The confidential paper says it had been predicted that about 10% of union members would opt in, based on a review of the number of union members who did so in the 2010 party leadership election. This would mean the number of members paying the political levy in the five largest affiliated unions would fall from 3.352 million to 333,000,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/10/labour-expecting-6m-loss-in-funding-through-trade-union-bill0 -
I was slightly alarmed at seeing 19% support for Liam Fox.....then I read the source - ConHome:
We continue to delete duplicate votes that are cast – and for one candidate in particular – and to remove what is evidently an organised push, again for the same candidate, taking place from Parliamentary IP addresses. This takes time and if it continues we will name names.0 -
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
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Ha ha. Politicians really don't understand computers do they? Did they not expect ConHome to go through their web server logs for an important poll like this? It's a bit like Corbyn having his Twitter account hacked, or the SpAd types that run multiple social media accounts on one device - that they take with them when they're on the pop!CarlottaVance said:I was slightly alarmed at seeing 19% support for Liam Fox.....then I read the source - ConHome:
We continue to delete duplicate votes that are cast – and for one candidate in particular – and to remove what is evidently an organised push, again for the same candidate, taking place from Parliamentary IP addresses. This takes time and if it continues we will name names.
Half of me would love to run IT for a political party, the other half of me would hate it, as pretty much everyone would think of themselves as being too important to follow basic rules - it would be like having a couple of hundred CEOs!
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Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....0
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Oh dear, I don't like crocodile tears over celebs but I'm a big Bowie fan, that would be a great shame.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
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Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.0 -
Confirmed, aged 69 after an 18-month battle with cancer...blackburn63 said:
Oh dear, I don't like crocodile tears over celebs but I'm a big Bowie fan, that would be a great shame.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
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This is a verified Twitter account.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
https://twitter.com/DavidBowieReal/status/6864349524649820160 -
Worth noting that a Tory leadership election may also be one additional stage at the beginning.
If 15% of the parliamentary party send letters to the Chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a vote of confidence in the leader, then one automatically takes place, which puts the trigger-point at 46 MPs. I've little doubt that the letters would be sent if Out wins and Cameron doesn't resign. If that didn't then prompt him to go, then there'd have to be a good chance that the vote would carry, not just because some MPs will campaign for Out anyway and wouldn't trust Cameron to lead the negotiations, but more because many would see his leadership as untenable in those circumstances, whatever their personal sympathies and support for him.
But then Cameron is no fool and would be likely to come to the same conclusion, preventing the need for an election in the first place.
One name to watch as a possible is Jeremy Hunt, best priced at 28/1 with Hills. He has in the past expressed scepticism about Britain's membership of the EU, and his taking on of the extremists in the NHS won't do him any harm.0 -
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
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I had no idea he had cancer.RodCrosby said:
Confirmed, aged 69 after an 18-month battle with cancer...blackburn63 said:
Oh dear, I don't like crocodile tears over celebs but I'm a big Bowie fan, that would be a great shame.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
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Sky News, Telegraph and Mail reporting it now. RIP Ziggy!RodCrosby said:
Confirmed, aged 69 after an 18-month battle with cancer...blackburn63 said:
Oh dear, I don't like crocodile tears over celebs but I'm a big Bowie fan, that would be a great shame.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
BBC website is still down with an error 500.0 -
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.0 -
Lots of posts on the thread saying its a hoax.....Sandpit said:
This is a verified Twitter account.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
https://twitter.com/DavidBowieReal/status/6864349524649820160 -
I think this is to avoid the referendum becoming about his leadership. Both inside his party and amongst the electorate at large.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
If the UK did vote to Leave I think he'd find it rather difficult to stay in office, particularly given the lack of preparation for it highlighted downthread.0 -
His son's confirmed it.CarlottaVance said:
Lots of posts on the thread saying its a hoax.....Sandpit said:
This is a verified Twitter account.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
https://twitter.com/DavidBowieReal/status/6864349524649820160 -
Also ticker line on the Telegraph
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Correct. Hunt is a good bet.david_herdson said:Worth noting that a Tory leadership election may also be one additional stage at the beginning.
If 15% of the parliamentary party send letters to the Chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a vote of confidence in the leader, then one automatically takes place, which puts the trigger-point at 46 MPs. I've little doubt that the letters would be sent if Out wins and Cameron doesn't resign. If that didn't then prompt him to go, then there'd have to be a good chance that the vote would carry, not just because some MPs will campaign for Out anyway and wouldn't trust Cameron to lead the negotiations, but more because many would see his leadership as untenable in those circumstances, whatever their personal sympathies and support for him.
But then Cameron is no fool and would be likely to come to the same conclusion, preventing the need for an election in the first place.
One name to watch as a possible is Jeremy Hunt, best priced at 28/1 with Hills. He has in the past expressed scepticism about Britain's membership of the EU, and his taking on of the extremists in the NHS won't do him any harm.
Personally, I think Fox's time has past.0 -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-bowie-dead-singer-dies-after-18-month-battle-with-cancer-a6805396.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Lots of posts on the thread saying its a hoax.....Sandpit said:
This is a verified Twitter account.RodCrosby said:Breaking: unconfirmed reports David Bowie dead....
https://twitter.com/DavidBowieReal/status/686434952464982016
"Sky News have spoken to the singer's publicist"
All the media reporting it as confirmed now, unfortunately.0 -
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking.
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Bowie’s death now up on BBC. – A true music legend, RIP Ziggy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-352788720 -
Fear is a motivation I agree - just not the way you think. I love the way you put words into people's mouths and then attack them for it. Symbol of a paucity of your own ideas?blackburn63 said:
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.0 -
Cameron is specifically trying not to make this about him and I suspect will succeed. The debate will centre around the issue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking.
And if you think that Turkey has any chance of becoming a member any time soon, you're deluding yourself - or more likely, trying to do so to others. Turkey is moving away from membership with its current leaders, even before you consider Greek and Cypriot vetoes.0 -
I haven't put words into your mouth at all, do you think Turkey and Albania joining the EU (which they will) is good for the UK?felix said:
Fear is a motivation I agree - just not the way you think. I love the way you put words into people's mouths and then attack them for it. Symbol of a paucity of your own ideas?blackburn63 said:
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
Incidentally, I'm not expecting a straight answer, just more of your usual obfuscation and insults.
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David Bowie RIP
Liked his music a lot0 -
There is literally no chance that Turkey will join the EU in the next decade. It's at least two orders of magnitude more likely the EU collapses than Turkey joins.blackburn63 said:
I haven't put words into your mouth at all, do you think Turkey and Albania joining the EU (which they will) is good for the UK?felix said:
Fear is a motivation I agree - just not the way you think. I love the way you put words into people's mouths and then attack them for it. Symbol of a paucity of your own ideas?blackburn63 said:
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
Incidentally, I'm not expecting a straight answer, just more of your usual obfuscation and insults.0 -
Well that's interesting because Cameron is on record as saying that he wants Turkey to join, regardless of that Albania will be soon.david_herdson said:
Cameron is specifically trying not to make this about him and I suspect will succeed. The debate will centre around the issue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking.
And if you think that Turkey has any chance of becoming a member any time soon, you're deluding yourself - or more likely, trying to do so to others. Turkey is moving away from membership with its current leaders, even before you consider Greek and Cypriot vetoes.
The fact Cameron is trying not to make it all about him says everything, he's painted himself into a corner over a referendum he didn't want. I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics. In are absolutely politicising and personalising the campaign.
0 -
https://twitter.com/ManMadeMoonMoses_ said:David Bowie RIP
Liked his music a lot
Very sad - but a life lived to the full and with a musical legacy that will outlast us all.0 -
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.0 -
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Following on from the P2P discussion last night, this forum is essential reading (and constant monitoring) for anyone thinking of taking the plunge...
http://p2pindependentforum.com/#category-150 -
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
0 -
A strong argument - and one that they wouldn't have been able to make if he had kept to his promise.blackburn63 said:I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics.
0 -
Nonsense, if he'd stood down as party leader he'd still be working with leave.eu and he'd still be an MEP.ThreeQuidder said:
A strong argument - and one that they wouldn't have been able to make if he had kept to his promise.blackburn63 said:I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics.
0 -
Happy to oblige idiotblackburn63 said:
I haven't put words into your mouth at all, do you think Turkey and Albania joining the EU (which they will) is good for the UK?felix said:
Fear is a motivation I agree - just not the way you think. I love the way you put words into people's mouths and then attack them for it. Symbol of a paucity of your own ideas?blackburn63 said:
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
Incidentally, I'm not expecting a straight answer, just more of your usual obfuscation and insults.
0 -
And still be a drag on the Leave Campaign. Cameron on the other hand.....blackburn63 said:
Nonsense, if he'd stood down as party leader he'd still be working with leave.eu and he'd still be an MEP.ThreeQuidder said:
A strong argument - and one that they wouldn't have been able to make if he had kept to his promise.blackburn63 said:I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics.
0 -
Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...0
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Excellent. A Next Con Leader Supermonday!0
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Turkey is moving away from the internal changes that would be required for membership. There is no chance of membership in the next decade or two, and even then it would be with a long transitional migration period.rcs1000 said:
There is literally no chance that Turkey will join the EU in the next decade. It's at least two orders of magnitude more likely the EU collapses than Turkey joins.blackburn63 said:
I haven't put words into your mouth at all, do you think Turkey and Albania joining the EU (which they will) is good for the UK?felix said:
Fear is a motivation I agree - just not the way you think. I love the way you put words into people's mouths and then attack them for it. Symbol of a paucity of your own ideas?blackburn63 said:
Well if we remain Turkey will soon be able to move here, I'm glad you think that's a good idea. A vote for In is a vote for closer integration, Leave has every intention of plugging that line.felix said:
Lol. Keep plugging g that line - big vote for remain.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
Incidentally, I'm not expecting a straight answer, just more of your usual obfuscation and insults.
And Leave would have to mean Leave the EEA for Turkey to matter.0 -
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.0 -
A good point about the challenge mechanism within the party - no matter how well he keeps the MPs together, there will probably be enough dissenters to mount a challenge if there's more than about 45% Leave.david_herdson said:Worth noting that a Tory leadership election may also be one additional stage at the beginning.
If 15% of the parliamentary party send letters to the Chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a vote of confidence in the leader, then one automatically takes place, which puts the trigger-point at 46 MPs. I've little doubt that the letters would be sent if Out wins and Cameron doesn't resign. If that didn't then prompt him to go, then there'd have to be a good chance that the vote would carry, not just because some MPs will campaign for Out anyway and wouldn't trust Cameron to lead the negotiations, but more because many would see his leadership as untenable in those circumstances, whatever their personal sympathies and support for him.
But then Cameron is no fool and would be likely to come to the same conclusion, preventing the need for an election in the first place.
One name to watch as a possible is Jeremy Hunt, best priced at 28/1 with Hills. He has in the past expressed scepticism about Britain's membership of the EU, and his taking on of the extremists in the NHS won't do him any harm.
As you say, DC is no fool and will accept that his time has come, he'll be happy to be spending more time in the country with the wife and kids.0 -
RC
"Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid..."
I saw Bowie play Elephantman on Broadway. No prosthetics or make up. He just slowly and imperceptibly contorted his body. One of the finest theatrical performances I've seen.
More than just pop0 -
Why not? A reprise of your posting style is, it's a shame that some people personalise matters on here. By the way, that Cameron is a liar and a c*** isn't he. Sticks and motes.blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278181/Turkey-join-EU-sooner-helping-disorderly-migrant-crisis-says-Merkel-visit-Istanbul.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
0 -
As for Dave, he says Turkey us "vital" to us..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html0 -
Where does it say 'before 2025'?blackburn63 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278181/Turkey-join-EU-sooner-helping-disorderly-migrant-crisis-says-Merkel-visit-Istanbul.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
Or address the Greek or Cypriot vetos? (Let alone the French or Austrian....)0 -
Well c**t isn't a word I use, so it seems you're rattled by Cameron's duplicity as well.matt said:
Why not? A reprise of your posting style is, it's a shame that some people personalise matters on here. By the way, that Cameron is a liar and a c*** isn't he. Sticks and motes.blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
0 -
Very sad news about Bowie. RIP.
On topic any polling that has Liam Fox at 19% cannot be taken seriously as Conhome themselves seem to noted. It is also very likely that Javid will back Osborne.
At the moment the final 2 if this comes to pass looks to me to be Osborne and May and I would expect Osborne to win such a contest although it might be close.
After May, with Boris no longer being Mayor I would expect him to be given a fairly senior post provided he stays onside in the referendum. This might give him a better chance but only if Cameron plays it long. If he resigns shortly after the referendum, for whatever reason, I think Boris will not have the track record to make it to the final 2. A Boris/Osborne play off in 2019 would be interesting.0 -
Haha! Merkel is negotiating with Turkey, Dave says Turkey is "vital" to us, is this really where Remain is? I do hope so, because I'm sure our electorate will welcome 90m Turks with open arms.CarlottaVance said:
Where does it say 'before 2025'?blackburn63 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278181/Turkey-join-EU-sooner-helping-disorderly-migrant-crisis-says-Merkel-visit-Istanbul.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
Or address the Greek or Cypriot vetos? (Let alone the French or Austrian....)
0 -
In other news Corbyn hasn't brought Noel Gallagher back to vote Labour.
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Corbyn-s-politics-like-communism-says-Noel/story-28495029-detail/story.html
Re Bowie - heard his music, like some of it, but not enough to buy any tracks. Sad news for his family, friends & fans.0 -
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
0 -
Nope. Two bars of Rachmaninov or Bach is worth more than the entire catalogue of Bowie and his ilk...Innocent_Abroad said:
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
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Rachmaninov = banal, infantile nonsenseRodCrosby said:
Nope. Two bars of Rachmaninov or Bach is worth more than the entire catalogue of Bowie and his ilk...Innocent_Abroad said:
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
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You don't seem to understand the dispute very well. Doctors already work these hours. The dispute is over a number of contractual issues (the BMA JDC does not agree that 15/16 issues are agreed) but the proposed changes cut the take home pay of the Doctors that do work the unsocial hours by about 20%. The "pay protection" does not cover a very large proportion of Junior Doctors.Sandpit said:
I'm not sure that certain parts of the public sector understand the transformation in the last decade or so, in terms of the work patterns of the average man or the expectations of service delivery. Even banks in major towns are now open Saturdays and increasingly Sundays.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting chart in that article:Sandpit said:This could be interesting politics. Boris takes aim at the BMA in no uncertain terms:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03451/nhschart_3451410b.jpg
It would appear that the dispute is about whether 6am-7am and 7pm-10pm and Saturdays and Sundays could be considered 'normal' work hours. I wonder what people who work in shops, restaurants or cafes (or indeed salaried management in other businesses) think about that?
The government has a point that the public's expectations are for the same seven-day working patterns in the NHS as the police, fire and other vital services. They have apparently good statistics to back up their argument and it's actually leading to people dying.
The doctors may have good arguments for their position, but to an outsider it looks like Luddite bleating in the face of progress and wishing to maintain lucrative 'out of hours' payments and private work - or even second jobs such as the wedding photographer. That they have a bunch of people at the BMA who are clearly Corbynites out to bash the government really doesn't help their cause much either. The public's view of doctors from various surveys is so high because they have a record of being above things like strikes.
The strike will go ahead tommorow. It has to do so or the 3 month rule since the ballot requires a further one. Ironically it is government legislation that is forcing the deadline.
98% of 37000 Junior Doctors are not ideological radicals. All they want is existing terms and conditions to be maintained. The strike ballot happened because Hunt said he would impose the new contract from August (nearly all Junior Doctors postgraduate training schemes start the first Wednesday in August).
Incidentally, recruitment for those August starts is underway over the next few months and bearing in mind that some specialities like GP, Obstetics and Emergency Dept still have unfilled posts from last years rounds it does not bode well for this year.0 -
Then provide a link - the DM one does not say what you think it does. As for real data backing up my position (and that of others on here): look at the little progress that has been made since Turkey first applied in 1953, and how many chapters of the acquis communautaire remain to be closed. Then every member of the EU has to agree, which is probably a much bigger hurdle.blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union0 -
But he would also be completely irrelevant.blackburn63 said:
Nonsense, if he'd stood down as party leader he'd still be working with leave.eu and he'd still be an MEP.ThreeQuidder said:
A strong argument - and one that they wouldn't have been able to make if he had kept to his promise.blackburn63 said:I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics.
Which is, of course, why he reneged.0 -
Would you care to put the music up, side by side?Wanderer said:
Rachmaninov = banal, infantile nonsenseRodCrosby said:
Nope. Two bars of Rachmaninov or Bach is worth more than the entire catalogue of Bowie and his ilk...Innocent_Abroad said:
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
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Over at Comment is Free, Joris Luendijk wants the EU to threaten the UK with massive economic sanctions if we vote for Brexit. He seems to be chewing the carpet in his anger.
I hope they follow his advice. It would guarantee a victory for Leave.
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"[Bach] would be the admiration of whole nations if he had more amiability, if he did not take away the natural element in his pieces by giving them a turgid and confused style, and if he did not darken their beauty by an excess of art."RodCrosby said:
Nope. Two bars of Rachmaninov or Bach is worth more than the entire catalogue of Bowie and his ilk...Innocent_Abroad said:
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
There are always people on the wrong side of history, Rod.0 -
I don't see Osborne's answer to winning the membership vote yet, or answering concerns on immigration. He's probably got enough parliamentary support to make it to the final two but he needs to stop obsessing about socking it to Labour and start thinking of the centre-right constituency he needs to win over.DavidL said:Very sad news about Bowie. RIP.
On topic any polling that has Liam Fox at 19% cannot be taken seriously as Conhome themselves seem to noted. It is also very likely that Javid will back Osborne.
At the moment the final 2 if this comes to pass looks to me to be Osborne and May and I would expect Osborne to win such a contest although it might be close.
After May, with Boris no longer being Mayor I would expect him to be given a fairly senior post provided he stays onside in the referendum. This might give him a better chance but only if Cameron plays it long. If he resigns shortly after the referendum, for whatever reason, I think Boris will not have the track record to make it to the final 2. A Boris/Osborne play off in 2019 would be interesting.
However, he is nothing if not intelligent - and knows this - so I expect he might signal he'd have an Outter as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and address the immigration question too, although it will be just smoke & mirrors.
There are also big risks to Osborne over the next 3 years on the economy, the EU and immigration which do not justify his price.
Then there's the fact he's the heir apparent, prominent in the media, and can be picked apart for his personal failings by the polls and focus groups.0 -
No it doesn't. It sounds like the resigning question is one he cannot answer, and in any case won't be up to him as he would likely be challenged and forced to go, and the second is one he is choosing not to answer as it is doing his opponents job for them.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.0 -
A new member requires the unanimous agreement of all the current member states. No Greek or (more importantly) Cypriot leader could possibly vote to let Turkey in. And even if they did, their national parliament would not ratify it.blackburn63 said:Haha! Merkel is negotiating with Turkey, Dave says Turkey is "vital" to us, is this really where Remain is? I do hope so, because I'm sure our electorate will welcome 90m Turks with open arms.
Anyone claiming that Turkey has any chance of joining the EU in the next two decades is either deluded or lying. Which are you?0 -
I am not a big prog rock fan (Mrs J is), but Bowie is one of the few 1970s artists who I can listen to without wanting to put a drill through the speakers.Innocent_Abroad said:
Bowie was part of the reason you have to put "almost" into that sentence.RodCrosby said:Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid...
He was a genuine talent, if a bit weird.
I'm not a fan, but Space Oddity is one of my favourite songs0 -
That'll be around 2035 then:blackburn63 said:
welcome 90m TurksCarlottaVance said:
Where does it say 'before 2025'?blackburn63 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278181/Turkey-join-EU-sooner-helping-disorderly-migrant-crisis-says-Merkel-visit-Istanbul.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
Or address the Greek or Cypriot vetos? (Let alone the French or Austrian....)
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15844
So twenty years from now, when I suspect some minds may be on other matters......0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Priti Patel/Justine Greening's triumph could be even sooner than we thought. Huzzah!0 -
Sad news about David Bowie.
He must have been fighting this dreadful disease when he made his crucial intervention in the IndyRef in 2014.0 -
Everyone says turkey is vital, but they seem to be moving further away from meeting joining conditions, and only do many could be relaxed, if anything, I'd expect the words on them joining to ramp up, even as it is less likely, as a kind of diplomatic reassurance they are still on side.blackburn63 said:
Haha! Merkel is negotiating with Turkey, Dave says Turkey is "vital" to us, is this really where Remain is? I do hope so, because I'm sure our electorate will welcome 90m Turks with open arms.CarlottaVance said:
Where does it say 'before 2025'?blackburn63 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278181/Turkey-join-EU-sooner-helping-disorderly-migrant-crisis-says-Merkel-visit-Istanbul.htmlCarlottaVance said:
Care to post the link which suggests Turkey joining before 2025?blackburn63 said:
A quick google search contradicts your view, but thanks for calling me a liar.JosiasJessop said:
There's no way Turkey's joining the EU in the next decade at the earliest, and especially not under its current leadership. But it suits all sides for negotiations to continue.blackburn63 said:
But Remain doesn't mean the status quo. Before long Turkey and Albania will be joining, if we vote to stay effectively we're signing up for life with all that entails.david_herdson said:
As a rule, the uncertainty does not lie with the status quo.blackburn63 said:
It would be very straightforward: we'd pass our own laws, trade freely and control our own borders. Cameron knows this but he's trying to muddy the waters.felix said:
Not at all. The last sentence is a not at all subtle dig at the Booers who have signally failed to explain just how Brexit would work.peter_from_putney said:
Cameron appears to be saying: I won't quit, but equally I don't have any idea on how we would proceed in the event of a Leave vote.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
Or address the Greek or Cypriot vetos? (Let alone the French or Austrian....)
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It's quite clear that both sides are doing their best to bat for the other side so far.Sean_F said:Over at Comment is Free, Joris Luendijk wants the EU to threaten the UK with massive economic sanctions if we vote for Brexit. He seems to be chewing the carpet in his anger.
I hope they follow his advice. It would guarantee a victory for Leave.
Sensible people on both sides need to take most of UKIP, most of the LDs and Eurocrats to one side and tell them to shut the f... up for the next 12 months!!0 -
How can anyone dispute that Turkey is "vital" to us? It is looking after more than 2 million Syrian refugees, roughly double the number that have come to the whole of Europe so far. We very much want them to stay there and that requires their co-operation.
Turkey is a large, relatively stable Muslim country and a very important player in middle eastern politics. Their policies have a huge impact and are not entirely to our liking at the moment. Their focus on the Kurds causes us difficulties as does their oil trade with ISIS and the shooting down of the Russian bomber was not exactly helpful. But there is no doubt that if a solution is to be found Turkey will play a very important part and we need to work closely with them.
There is no chance of them joining the EU in the foreseeable future but their trading relationship with the EU remains important for both sides. When I have been on holiday there the Euro was a second informal currency accepted by all shops, restaurants and taxi drivers. They are very much in the ambit of the EU's sphere of influence and it is in our interests for them to stay there.
Cameron pointing this out is doing no more than stating the obvious.0 -
And there we have the reason that the BMA walked out of the talks. You mentioned it yesterday but by repeating it so blithely you show that you don't grasp the implications.foxinsoxuk said:
The strike will go ahead tommorow. It has to do so or the 3 month rule since the ballot requires a further one.
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This discussion has been closed.