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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not inconceivable that in a year’s time there’ll be a new CON leader and PM
There’s is a widespread view that if the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable. If that happens then we could only be months away from the first Conservative leadership contest since 2005 in which the party would not just be choosing a new leader but the next prime minister.
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David Cameron has been accused of being “nothing short of irresponsible” after indicating that the government had not made any preparations should Britain vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4661769.ece
I agree with this premise and feel sure that David Cameron would agree too. Assuming the referendum were to be held in September 2016, which appears to be the favoured date assuming the current negotiations are satisfactorily concluded by the end of next month which is the stated objective, then were he to lose the vote, it would seem likely that the Prime Minister would choose to leave office during the first half of 2017, enabling him, as far as was possible, to influence the person chosen to succeed him.
In such circumstances Hills' decimal odds of 9.0, or 8/1 in old money, on his "ceasing to be leader of the Tory Party" in 2017" appears to offer certain attractions.
For one thing, this is far more generous than Ladbrokes' equivalent bet offering 7.0 (or 6/1) against "David Cameron leaving his post as Prime Minister in 2017", and very substantially better than the best odds of around 2/1 currently available against a bare Brexit vote.
As is often the case, I am finding that Hills are severely limiting my stakes on such a bet, although others may have more success - but in any event DYOR beforehand!
The question does remain, who is doing it though - this is what, three times so far this year..?
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35278120
A series of foul-mouthed posts have been published on Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter feed following the apparent hacking of the Labour leader's account.
The infiltration began shortly after 21:00 GMT, and at least four messages were broadcast to his 384,000 followers.
One mocked Prime Minister David Cameron by stating: "davey cameron is a pie".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12092224/The-BMA-has-Corbyn-fever-and-is-more-interested-in-politics-than-patients.html
Of course not......
Unless he has completely sewn himself up in a corner (before even starting), or if the whole negotiation process is a fraud (as some have alleged), nobody knows at this stage if Cameron is sucessful or not in his negotiations. So, if Cameron is dealing honestly, not even he knows whether he will recommend Leave or Remain.
So I feel it is somewhat premature to say, at this stage, that Cameron must resign if the referendum votes for Leave. That may well be the answer that Cameron finally recommends to us.
I wish we had a Prime Minister who really did know what he wanted to do. Cameron is just so feeble.
If they can hold together and have their internal disagreements politely then the PM could stay on whatever the result, the people having spoken etc.
However if it turns into a Tory bloodbath to rival what Labour are going through right now, with briefings and counter-briefings, MPs accusing the leadership of being dishonest liars, stitching up the negotiations etc. then Cameron's position will be untenable if his 'side' doesn't win the referendum.
So it's basically up to party management whether he goes or not, which is why he's trying desperately now to keep a lid on public disagreement and stop the the mud from flying while the negotiations are still happening.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03451/nhschart_3451410b.jpg
It would appear that the dispute is about whether 6am-7am and 7pm-10pm and Saturdays and Sundays could be considered 'normal' work hours. I wonder what people who work in shops, restaurants or cafes (or indeed salaried management in other businesses) think about that?
From a betting perspective there is a further angle to this - were the referendum to result in a Remain vote, it is quite conceivable that David Cameron might then conclude that the major task he faced in his second term had been satisfactorily concluded and that by say May 2017, after 7 long years as Prime Minister, it was time to call it a day and step aside.
Let us not forget that, perhaps unwisely, it was his stated intention to leave office during his second term (which with hindsight, perhaps both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair might have been best advised to consider also), before backing away from this plan of action for understandable political reasons. It is not unreasonable to believe that this nevertheless remains his preferred option, particularly if it is one shared by his wife.
Whichever way one looks at it, 2017 at 8/1 (i.e. an 11% probability) looks to me to be a reasonable bet, but like I say DYOR.
The government has a point that the public's expectations are for the same seven-day working patterns in the NHS as the police, fire and other vital services. They have apparently good statistics to back up their argument and it's actually leading to people dying.
The doctors may have good arguments for their position, but to an outsider it looks like Luddite bleating in the face of progress and wishing to maintain lucrative 'out of hours' payments and private work - or even second jobs such as the wedding photographer. That they have a bunch of people at the BMA who are clearly Corbynites out to bash the government really doesn't help their cause much either. The public's view of doctors from various surveys is so high because they have a record of being above things like strikes.
The Times’ front page has Cameron: I won’t quit if Britain votes to leave EU.
Don't know thw details as the article is paywalled - perhaps a subscriber would kindly oblige?
Sounds like it's time for him to sort out his thinking somewhat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tADiQrmlEQ
To admit that it does not surely beggars belief? Even were it to state that, rather like the Irish, we'd simply have another referendum until we came up with the right answer would be better than nothing!
If he says 'Yes' we immediately get into 'what are they? and 'whataboutery' from here to kingdom come.
Surely its the job of 'Leave' to paint a picture of what it would mean?
Oh, I see your problem......
The confidential paper says it had been predicted that about 10% of union members would opt in, based on a review of the number of union members who did so in the 2010 party leadership election. This would mean the number of members paying the political levy in the five largest affiliated unions would fall from 3.352 million to 333,000,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/10/labour-expecting-6m-loss-in-funding-through-trade-union-bill
We continue to delete duplicate votes that are cast – and for one candidate in particular – and to remove what is evidently an organised push, again for the same candidate, taking place from Parliamentary IP addresses. This takes time and if it continues we will name names.
Of far more concern is what happens if we Remain.
Half of me would love to run IT for a political party, the other half of me would hate it, as pretty much everyone would think of themselves as being too important to follow basic rules - it would be like having a couple of hundred CEOs!
https://twitter.com/DavidBowieReal/status/686434952464982016
If 15% of the parliamentary party send letters to the Chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a vote of confidence in the leader, then one automatically takes place, which puts the trigger-point at 46 MPs. I've little doubt that the letters would be sent if Out wins and Cameron doesn't resign. If that didn't then prompt him to go, then there'd have to be a good chance that the vote would carry, not just because some MPs will campaign for Out anyway and wouldn't trust Cameron to lead the negotiations, but more because many would see his leadership as untenable in those circumstances, whatever their personal sympathies and support for him.
But then Cameron is no fool and would be likely to come to the same conclusion, preventing the need for an election in the first place.
One name to watch as a possible is Jeremy Hunt, best priced at 28/1 with Hills. He has in the past expressed scepticism about Britain's membership of the EU, and his taking on of the extremists in the NHS won't do him any harm.
BBC website is still down with an error 500.
If the UK did vote to Leave I think he'd find it rather difficult to stay in office, particularly given the lack of preparation for it highlighted downthread.
Personally, I think Fox's time has past.
"Sky News have spoken to the singer's publicist"
All the media reporting it as confirmed now, unfortunately.
I've been saying on here for ages that Cameron has made this all about him, im convinced there's plenty of Labour voters ambivalent about the EU that will give him a kicking.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35278872
And if you think that Turkey has any chance of becoming a member any time soon, you're deluding yourself - or more likely, trying to do so to others. Turkey is moving away from membership with its current leaders, even before you consider Greek and Cypriot vetoes.
Incidentally, I'm not expecting a straight answer, just more of your usual obfuscation and insults.
Liked his music a lot
The fact Cameron is trying not to make it all about him says everything, he's painted himself into a corner over a referendum he didn't want. I get emails from Stronger in Europe, last week had an unflattering photo of Farage, inviting people to kick him out of politics. In are absolutely politicising and personalising the campaign.
Very sad - but a life lived to the full and with a musical legacy that will outlast us all.
If you base your argument on that then you're basing your argument on a lie.
Huge part of my cultural life.
Wow.
http://p2pindependentforum.com/#category-15
And Leave would have to mean Leave the EEA for Turkey to matter.
As you say, DC is no fool and will accept that his time has come, he'll be happy to be spending more time in the country with the wife and kids.
"Every man's death diminishes me, but pop is almost universally banal, infantile nonsense I'm afraid..."
I saw Bowie play Elephantman on Broadway. No prosthetics or make up. He just slowly and imperceptibly contorted his body. One of the finest theatrical performances I've seen.
More than just pop
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html
Or address the Greek or Cypriot vetos? (Let alone the French or Austrian....)
On topic any polling that has Liam Fox at 19% cannot be taken seriously as Conhome themselves seem to noted. It is also very likely that Javid will back Osborne.
At the moment the final 2 if this comes to pass looks to me to be Osborne and May and I would expect Osborne to win such a contest although it might be close.
After May, with Boris no longer being Mayor I would expect him to be given a fairly senior post provided he stays onside in the referendum. This might give him a better chance but only if Cameron plays it long. If he resigns shortly after the referendum, for whatever reason, I think Boris will not have the track record to make it to the final 2. A Boris/Osborne play off in 2019 would be interesting.
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Corbyn-s-politics-like-communism-says-Noel/story-28495029-detail/story.html
Re Bowie - heard his music, like some of it, but not enough to buy any tracks. Sad news for his family, friends & fans.
The strike will go ahead tommorow. It has to do so or the 3 month rule since the ballot requires a further one. Ironically it is government legislation that is forcing the deadline.
98% of 37000 Junior Doctors are not ideological radicals. All they want is existing terms and conditions to be maintained. The strike ballot happened because Hunt said he would impose the new contract from August (nearly all Junior Doctors postgraduate training schemes start the first Wednesday in August).
Incidentally, recruitment for those August starts is underway over the next few months and bearing in mind that some specialities like GP, Obstetics and Emergency Dept still have unfilled posts from last years rounds it does not bode well for this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
Which is, of course, why he reneged.
I hope they follow his advice. It would guarantee a victory for Leave.
There are always people on the wrong side of history, Rod.
However, he is nothing if not intelligent - and knows this - so I expect he might signal he'd have an Outter as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and address the immigration question too, although it will be just smoke & mirrors.
There are also big risks to Osborne over the next 3 years on the economy, the EU and immigration which do not justify his price.
Then there's the fact he's the heir apparent, prominent in the media, and can be picked apart for his personal failings by the polls and focus groups.
Anyone claiming that Turkey has any chance of joining the EU in the next two decades is either deluded or lying. Which are you?
He was a genuine talent, if a bit weird.
I'm not a fan, but Space Oddity is one of my favourite songs
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15844
So twenty years from now, when I suspect some minds may be on other matters......
Priti Patel/Justine Greening's triumph could be even sooner than we thought. Huzzah!
He must have been fighting this dreadful disease when he made his crucial intervention in the IndyRef in 2014.
Sensible people on both sides need to take most of UKIP, most of the LDs and Eurocrats to one side and tell them to shut the f... up for the next 12 months!!
Turkey is a large, relatively stable Muslim country and a very important player in middle eastern politics. Their policies have a huge impact and are not entirely to our liking at the moment. Their focus on the Kurds causes us difficulties as does their oil trade with ISIS and the shooting down of the Russian bomber was not exactly helpful. But there is no doubt that if a solution is to be found Turkey will play a very important part and we need to work closely with them.
There is no chance of them joining the EU in the foreseeable future but their trading relationship with the EU remains important for both sides. When I have been on holiday there the Euro was a second informal currency accepted by all shops, restaurants and taxi drivers. They are very much in the ambit of the EU's sphere of influence and it is in our interests for them to stay there.
Cameron pointing this out is doing no more than stating the obvious.