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Good points although the Tories are very civilised and not good on this. I was involved in a fracas with Labour when they were pressuring voters inside a polling station. My Tory Chairman said don't get involved. Labour had posters and supporters inside the bloody station.weejonnie said:
I'd get him to have his supporters start making exhaustive enquiries as to the number of people living in each house in certain areas and infiltrate the Labour GOTV machine.Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
Also: if voting is at polling stations, I would have such monitored in certain areas for undue pressure being put on voters.0 -
Yes, it is a complex message to sell it seems for Zac.MaxPB said:
Home ownership and increasing the availability of affordable homes for rent and to buy. Trumpet London HtB, a lot of people are unaware that they will soon be eligible for a 40% interest free loan for new builds in London. When I mentioned it to a friend who is a first time buyer she was blown away by how much easier it would make it for her to get a mortgage.MarqueeMark said:
Zac needs to show is right behind the living wage, and the getting of the lowest paid out of the income tax net. He needs to be making the case that he and his Govt. are helping the poorest in London.Dixie said:
Thank you, really helpful.ThomasNashe said:
He was involved in an interesting discussion on C4 news last night about gang culture and knife crime. I thought he did OK, and clearly his participation is evidence that he knows he needs to involve himself with issues that affect Londoners who don't live in Richmond or Twickenham. But he will need to do a lot more of that kind of thing if he's to win.kle4 said:
Given the apparent hardening, not weakening, support for Labour in London since the election of Corbyn, how does he intend to go about challenging Khan in those stronger Labour areas? What does he offer those areas which feel tempted by the Corbyn type of politics?Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
And yes, he also needs to be very happy that London is the destination of choice for the Uber-rich. Proud that the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. That London is attracting the rich - the rich who pay for our NHS. If we attract even more, then we can have the best health service in the world..... Of course, they have to pay their fair share of tax. And this Govt. has been more wealth redistributive than Labour have ever dreamt.
He also needs a message on housing - frankly, a message which I don't have any suggestions about!0 -
A man of the people is a bonus. A man for the people is an essential.Dixie said:
Thank you. He does need to be a man of the people, I accept.TOPPING said:
When Lab reorganises to become an effective political force, or even now, do you think it will help or hinder the Conservatives, who arguably suffer from a perception that they govern for the elite, to have yet another priveleged, male, OE posho in a key position of power?Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
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ah!FrancisUrquhart said:
You might want to check up on your baggage claims.TOPPING said:Khan comes with none of the baggage that Ken did (a brief mention of Al Qaradawi brought votes to Boris from a demographic that historically has been split Lab/Con).
Londoners can also be mulish, if not impish, and it might amuse them to snub Zac in favour of Khan.
well actually I have no idea about his baggage (never an impediment for me to post...).
What is it?0 -
'It is, of course, still an authoritarian; it's one born of running scared of the past but implicitly it still betrays a lack of confidence in the present: that were such thoughts or observations allowed, the people would descend as before.'
Indeed. It is understandable to an extent in the German context - but the Germans do not have the right to project their guilt on to other countries, as they frequently do. For example by suggesting that people opposed to EU integration are by definition xenophobes/racists.
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I wonder if photos of Diane Abbot, Lee Jasper and Ken along with Jezza maybe the answer? Vote Khan got this lot!kle4 said:
And his vote in 2012 actually went up from 2008 IIRC. Not enough to win, and there is the LD collapse to consider, but even he is not as toxic to some as people think. Nevertheless, he seems to have become more aggressive and bitter in recent years, it might be an opening, with Khan as Livingstone proxy or something.Dixie said:
Thank you. Livingstone is more toxic these days but he was the Londoner's favourite, twice in 2000 and 2004.Cyclefree said:
Two points: Khan has indeed tried to distance himself from Corbyn. I'm not sure the Tories will let him get away with this. He nominated him after all. He has said that he will accept help from Livingstone, who is toxic, and he is vulnerable if there is another attack, God forbid, in London or elsewhere and we get more nonsense from Corbyn, Livingstone et al.ThomasNashe said:
While I think Khan is ahead, it's far from being a certainty. We shouldn't confuse London Labour activists with London Labour voters. The allegiance of the latter group is a lot softer than that of the former. A lot will depend on what happens in the immediate run-up to May, but I see no prospect of the party coming to its senses before then.CarlottaVance said:
In as much as Labour is a London Party, London is a Labour city - and the Tories need an exceptional candidate (like a Boris) to win it - what possessed them to think Goldsmith had that 'star quality' is beyond me.....kle4 said:
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
That said, Khan is quite adept at avoiding being identified with the more lunatic statements of Corbyn and McDonnell. And he'll probably be able to suggest enough distance between himself and them to prevent himself from being too damaged by the Corbynite chaos.
Also, re Goldsmith: his team have been for the last couple of months at least, leafleting in the outer boroughs - , Hendon a few weeks back, they're doing Pinner, Harrow and round there this weekend. Anecdotal I realise and doesn't hit the press but, possibly, evidence of more activity and, possibly, more focused activity than some may be assuming.0 -
OGH is not a Tory. So why would he "intellectually" go with Goldsmith?Dixie said:
Either/both. I realise not everyone is a blue but intellectually, wouldn't it be good to say 'it was politicalbetting.com wot won it!'Theuniondivvie said:
I assume you mean as an intellectual exercise rather than implying a prevailing bias on the site.Dixie said:I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
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The irony is that this WW2 guilt has led Germany to invite in a group of people who are more likely than others to bring with them the anti-Semitic views which politicians such as him are scared of. To try and appease your own historical anti-Semitism by importing people with a culture which can be and very often is pretty racist about others is pretty bizarre. It shows, as you say, a misunderstanding both of your own past and the present.david_herdson said:
[my bold]Cyclefree said:
It is. But the evidence from Germany is that what was happening to the women was not being shouted at but men touching them, trying to put their hands between their legs, squeezing their breasts etc. So actual assault - a crime.Theuniondivvie said:Morris_Dancer said:
Whereas writing that all Muslims should be rounded up in camps on a chat room is not a crime, disgusting as such a sentiment might be.
A crime is worse than a bad thought or a thought you don't agree with. If we don't understand that distinction, then we have no hope of either understanding or dealing with the problem.
The mess we have got ourselves into arises in very large part because we behave as if a bad thought or a thought that the majority might find a bit horrible is treated as worse than actions. It is a very medieval mindset. We are behaving like the Inquisitors of the 16th century: punishing people for their thoughts.
One of the German politicians was quoted as saying that it was "impermissible" to talk about the ethic make up of those assaulting women. "Impermissible" indeed. That is the voice of the authoritarian ruler or cleric throughout the ages. It is that attitude which is wrong, which needs to be buried in a deep vault with a stake through its heart.
Yes, but not in the usual sense. It's the voice of someone who still feels deep guilt and shame for his country's and his country-folks' history re race relations, and who is so terrified of the subject - presumably on the basis that mentioning it might resurrect those ghosts - that to even mention it is to create dangerous echoes (though whether he is worried about whether a taint on himself should he mention it, or a taint on his city is open to question).
It is, of course, still an authoritarian; it's one born of running scared of the past but implicitly it still betrays a lack of confidence in the present: that were such thoughts or observations allowed, the people would descend as before.
The irony is that people will have made the observations anyway but it's only those not scared of being called racists who will voice them, which inevitably includes those who are racist. And that will increase their credibility while diminishing the likes of that politician quoted.
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I am interested by this claim of a "long history" of robbery in this location. I have been to Cologne on a number of occasions, but not for the past 3 years. It never struck me as a dangerous place after dark, never seen large gangs of dodgy people hanging around and none of those yellow signs warning of such.flightpath01 said:
Both are wrong. The actions in Germany are criminal in two ways the harassment and molestation (1) were the shield for organised robbery (2). There is a long history of organised robbery at this place at that time. The German police do seem quite culpable, so perhaps they are happy to see all sorts of blame go elsewhere. As far as I can see there is no official sanction for a so called code of conduct for women, only a crass remark from the Mayor of Cologne, which has been shouted down.CD13 said:Mr Divvie,
On an information point, the full phrase is "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me."
I believe there is a lot of difference between being angry and writing silly things, and carrying out an act of violence. Otherwise we'd have a jail in every street.
Ralf may think that it's more important to investigate some spotty seventeen-year-old who posts on-line than stop rape and sexual assault taking place in the middle of his city.
Perhaps some of the Rotherham officials had the same opinion. I prefer to think Ralf is trying to muddy the waters and deflect attention from his own inadequacies.
In comparison, if this had been Las Ramblas in Barcelona, I would agree with the statement. My whole adult life that has been an area where tourists are warned of potential issues after dark.0 -
Would be interesting to get DMcB's thoughts on Corbyn's relationships with Brownites, Watson especially. Is Watson a long term threat to Corbyn. What about Dugher? Would be very interested in any insights into Labour machine politics.TheScreamingEagles said:FYI. Next PB/Polling Matters podcast will be with Damian McBride. Thoughts on questions to @keiranpedley
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Does he enjoy being on the outside more than the wheeling and dealing of being on the inside, I wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:FYI. Next PB/Polling Matters podcast will be with Damian McBride. Thoughts on questions to @keiranpedley
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Yes, he needs to be bolder and clearer. Boris is such a genius, that Zac must learn from him.MarqueeMark said:
Zac needs to show is right behind the living wage, and the getting of the lowest paid out of the income tax net. He needs to be making the case that he and his Govt. are helping the poorest in London.Dixie said:
Thank you, really helpful.ThomasNashe said:
He was involved in an interesting discussion on C4 news last night about gang culture and knife crime. I thought he did OK, and clearly his participation is evidence that he knows he needs to involve himself with issues that affect Londoners who don't live in Richmond or Twickenham. But he will need to do a lot more of that kind of thing if he's to win.kle4 said:
Given the apparent hardening, not weakening, support for Labour in London since the election of Corbyn, how does he intend to go about challenging Khan in those stronger Labour areas? What does he offer those areas which feel tempted by the Corbyn type of politics?Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
And yes, he also needs to be very happy that London is the destination of choice for the Uber-rich. Proud that the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. That London is attracting the rich - the rich who pay for our NHS. If we attract even more, then we can have the best health service in the world..... Of course, they have to pay their fair share of tax. And this Govt. has been more wealth redistributive than Labour have ever dreamt.
He also needs a message on housing - frankly, a message which I don't have any suggestions about!0 -
Mr. Runnymede, indeed, it's a perverse side-effect that Germany's desperation to atone for the distant past is leading it to try and dictate migration policy to the (supposedly) sovereign nations of Europe.0
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Because anyone with two working braincells and an ounce of human decency wouldn't go for Corbyn's Labour?Innocent_Abroad said:
OGH is not a Tory. So why would he "intellectually" go with Goldsmith?Dixie said:
Either/both. I realise not everyone is a blue but intellectually, wouldn't it be good to say 'it was politicalbetting.com wot won it!'Theuniondivvie said:
I assume you mean as an intellectual exercise rather than implying a prevailing bias on the site.Dixie said:I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
In my humble opinion that is ...0 -
I hope so. Individual Voter Registration wil hurt Labour a bit, how much we don't know.Mortimer said:Presumably the Govt will schedule several votes between now and May that will force a 3 line whip and thus see Khan vote with Corbo. Any indication yet what these might be?
I imagine they'd be very outer-London friendly....0 -
So we could have simultaneous elections for Labour and the Conservatives in October. Has Mike booked a holiday or something?david_herdson said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:Damian McBride predicts a coup around conference time
The combined weight of the Brownite and Blairite machines, together with the authority that the centrist neutrals give them, could bring down even the most powerful of leaders, and Jeremy Corbyn is certainly not that.
When the coup comes, it will not be the hapless Hoon and Hewitt waving a letter of protest. It will be Dugher and McFadden in a pair of tanks, with a 200-strong army of MPs behind them. Get ready for your October Revolution, Mr Corbyn.
I expect so. He missed the last one. This was the convo last time.
Mike: I'm going on holiday from the 3rd of September until the 21st. That OK with you ?
Me: Sure, but you know you'll be missing the Labour leadership election ?
Mike: So Corbyn's going to win.
Me: Not even your holiday can do that.0 -
Google Babar Ahmed. Khan does have some baggage. He is trying to shed it.TOPPING said:Khan comes with none of the baggage that Ken did (a brief mention of Al Qaradawi brought votes to Boris from a demographic that historically has been split Lab/Con).
Londoners can also be mulish, if not impish, and it might amuse them to snub Zac in favour of Khan.
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I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
I'm not an american and don't have the vote and as a libertarian I don't exactly agree with Trumps policies, after all, he isn't going to abolish the welfare system, is he.Theuniondivvie said:
We should always look to Trump fanboys for insights into sexual politics.Gaius said:
Do you actually not know the difference between rude comments and physical gropping that leaves bruises on breasts and buttocks?Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for allowing me an opinion.CD13 said:Mr Divvie,
You re fully entitled to your opinion, but as an old git, I hold to the old-fashioned "Sticks and Stones" axiom. What some loon on a website writes is of almost supreme indifference to me.
What next? Writing nasty things is the same as murder? Let's equate Polly Toynbee and Genghis Khan. Hitler was a nice man but his greatest crime was writing Mein Kampf?
We're back to categorisation. Are wolf whistles and 'want a bit of this luv' molestation? Is an online exhortation to revenge rape 'Muslim bitches' just sticks & stones?
OTOH, you don't know the difference between rude comments and actual, physical, sexual assault.
Does your mother know this about you. Do you have a wife*, sister or daughter you could sure your insight and judgement with.
You should be ashamed of yourself.
* probably not, with such a bizarre viewpoint you are unlikely to have a quality partner.
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On topic: We need to understand the rules for translating votes into delegates in NH. It's basically a proportional system, with a 10% threshold. In summary:
- There are 20 delegates elected in the primary (and 'bound' to their candidate), plus 3 ex-officio delegates not bound to any particular candidate
- If a candidate withdraws between the primary and the convention, the delegates pledged to him or her can vote for any of the other candidates
- Delegates are allocated based on the 20 × candidate's vote ÷ total statewide vote, rounded to the nearest whole number.
- There's one rule I don't quite understand: "Any delegate positions that remain open are awarded to the candidate with the highest statewide vote total.". Does that mean that, if the leading candidate picks up (say) 30% and the also-rans who don't individually make 10% collectively get between them (say) 20%, that the leading candidate gets half of the total? If so, that is potentially a big factor.
Note that, even if Trump 'wins' against a crowded field, that doesn't necessarily mean he gets a commanding share of the available delegates; as the establishment figures drop out of the race, it is likely that the remaining leading establishment figure will pick up the non-Trump delegates.
More details here:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-R
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Already posted in The TimesWanderer said:Would be interesting to get DMcB's thoughts on Corbyn's relationships with Brownites, Watson especially. Is Watson a long term threat to Corbyn. What about Dugher? Would be very interested in any insights into Labour machine politics.
For the last few days, the angry voices flooding the news channels, radio and Twitter have left an old, retired Brownite like me wiping a nostalgic tear from my eye: Michael Dugher, Kevan Jones, Ian Austin, and – of course – the silence that speaks volumes from Tom Watson, the deputy leader.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbyn
I’m no Star Wars fan, but I know a force awakening when I see one.
But this time it’s different. Jeremy Corbyn – or more accurately, the wild-eyed zealots around him – have pulled off a unique feat.
For the first time in two decades, the Blairites, Brownites and neutrals within the parliamentary Labour party are fully as one.0 -
That is, on the face of it, accusing the Saudis of an act of war, no (if they are saying their embassy was targeted intentionally).dr_spyn said:Not sure if this will escalate, but it really doesn't look good.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35251917
"Iran has accused Saudi-led coalition warplanes of bombing its embassy in Yemen's capital Sanaa, state media say."0 -
On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.0
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That Tony Parsons finally left and voted Tory summed up what's happened to Labour. He wrote for them for 20yrs and very sensible he was too.chestnut said:
The Daily Mirror has always struck me as an old-school, working class, Labour paper.FrancisUrquhart said:
You know its bad for Labour, when even the Mirror are taking a pop every day.dr_spyn said:Has Abbott upset the Mirror?
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/685046823535407104
It's never been like the Guardian or the Indy.0 -
As a point of reference regarding the London Mayoral contest:
London Votes - 2015
Labour 1.545m (43.7%)
Tory 1.233m (34.9%)
UKIP 0.287m (8.1%)
Lib Dems 0.273m (7.7%)
Green 0.172m (4.9%)
UKIP supporters are highly unlikely to back Khan, which leaves the main two fairly closely matched. It's the LD/Greens who hold the balance.
Comres polled London late in March and had 46-32 (so they were out by 2.6 swing) and the divide between various groups was:
White: Con 40 Lab 31
BAME: Lab 68 Con 21
Homeowner: Con 46 Lab 34
Social Rent: Lab 65 Con 11
Private Rent: Lab 60 Con 17
Long term, the Tories need to change the housing mix from rent to ownership, and the bloated, expensive and excessive housing benefit bill for London is reasonable justification.
Dividing London into a set of regions shows that N, S and W were closely matched. Labour's core is to the East.
Note: YG and Comres were between 4-6 points out at the GE with London specific polling. Any reported lead for Khan in that ball-park area could easily be a tie.0 -
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:
Already posted in The TimesWanderer said:Would be interesting to get DMcB's thoughts on Corbyn's relationships with Brownites, Watson especially. Is Watson a long term threat to Corbyn. What about Dugher? Would be very interested in any insights into Labour machine politics.
For the last few days, the angry voices flooding the news channels, radio and Twitter have left an old, retired Brownite like me wiping a nostalgic tear from my eye: Michael Dugher, Kevan Jones, Ian Austin, and – of course – the silence that speaks volumes from Tom Watson, the deputy leader.
I’m no Star Wars fan, but I know a force awakening when I see one.
But this time it’s different. Jeremy Corbyn – or more accurately, the wild-eyed zealots around him – have pulled off a unique feat.
For the first time in two decades, the Blairites, Brownites and neutrals within the parliamentary Labour party are fully as one.
Oooh, I missed that. Thanks.0 -
Questions to McBride, really?
1. Does being a filthy lying scumbag come naturally to you, or do you have to work hard at it?
2. Will you apologise to those women you smeared?
3. Are there any circumstances where the ends might not justify the means?0 -
Kasich is in the 300s. I wouldn't go mad, but if you've been playing a backing game he may be worth a few pennies to cover at such long odds.0
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Absolutely agree.FrancisUrquhart said:
It disgusts me that McBride, Maguire, etc have managed to basically just carry on as if they didn't really do anything and now can provide sage like advice. What they were up to went far beyond the usual political scandal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was going to submit a question, but couldn't find a way to phrase it without using ungentlemanly language.
McBride's filth. What he was doing was despicable. I don't think it's wrong for Mr. Pedley to interview him, but I shan't be listening, even though I'm sure the podcast will be absolutely, bloody brilliant.
On Corbyn and the Corbynistas: He's got the sanity of Caligula, the morals of Nero, the strength of Arcadius and the competence of Jovian.
Labour must hope he has the longevity of the latter.
I'd ask how he feels that his actions have, to some degree, led to the mess that Labour's in today. Not just in foisting Gordon Brown on us, but in creating an atmosphere within Labour that has allowed the Corbynites to split the party asunder. It's hard for the centrists to call for unity when they spent five years fighting amongst themselves, and ended up subverting internal party democracy by ensuring there was no rival to Brown.
As an example, the "forces of hell" that bedevilled Alistair Darling were led by McBride.
I'd ask why we should believe anything he says, and why anything he says is worth listening to.0 -
Well it might help the oil price at least.dr_spyn said:Not sure if this will escalate, but it really doesn't look good.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35251917
"Iran has accused Saudi-led coalition warplanes of bombing its embassy in Yemen's capital Sanaa, state media say."0 -
@suemcdonald342: 'Schengen is DEAD', blasts former French president Nicolas Sarkozy https://t.co/NnVeOqGGIc0
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Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 59s59 seconds ago
Update - French police sources say man has been shot after reportedly trying to enter police station in northern #Paris brandishing a knife0 -
Miss Plato, TINO?0
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I simply don't understand why Germany would seek to atone for its war guilt by keeping out Poles and letting in people from countries where a proportion believe that the only thing wrong with the Holocaust is that it did not go far enough, where the Protocols of the Elders of Zion is on sale and treated as fact and which have done a fair amount of their own ethnic and religious cleansing.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Runnymede, indeed, it's a perverse side-effect that Germany's desperation to atone for the distant past is leading it to try and dictate migration policy to the (supposedly) sovereign nations of Europe.
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@JamesCleverly: Corbyn's revenge #reshuffle is starting to look more like Gordon Brown's 2007 non-General Election by the minute.0
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Very useful. You can see why Cameron believes in home ownership.chestnut said:As a point of reference regarding the London Mayoral contest:
London Votes - 2015
Labour 1.545m (43.7%)
Tory 1.233m (34.9%)
UKIP 0.287m (8.1%)
Lib Dems 0.273m (7.7%)
Green 0.172m (4.9%)
UKIP supporters are highly unlikely to back Khan, which leaves the main two fairly closely matched. It's the LD/Greens who hold the balance.
Comres polled London late in March and had 46-32 (so they were out by 2.6 swing) and the divide between various groups was:
White: Con 40 Lab 31
BAME: Lab 68 Con 21
Homeowner: Con 46 Lab 34
Social Rent: Lab 65 Con 11
Private Rent: Lab 60 Con 17
Long term, the Tories need to change the housing mix from rent to ownership, and the bloated, expensive and excessive housing benefit bill for London is reasonable justification.
Dividing London into a set of regions shows that N, S and W were closely matched. Labour's core is to the East.
Note: YG and Comres were between 4-6 points out at the GE. Any reported lead for Khan in that ball-park area could easily be a tie.
Individual Voter Registration and shy Tories in opinion polls might mean if Zac is 5 points behind on election day, he could win. Neck and neck he is highly likely to win.0 -
HtB is keeping prices high. A better name is help to sell.MaxPB said:
Home ownership and increasing the availability of affordable homes for rent and to buy. Trumpet London HtB, a lot of people are unaware that they will soon be eligible for a 40% interest free loan for new builds in London. When I mentioned it to a friend who is a first time buyer she was blown away by how much easier it would make it for her to get a mortgage.MarqueeMark said:
Zac needs to show is right behind the living wage, and the getting of the lowest paid out of the income tax net. He needs to be making the case that he and his Govt. are helping the poorest in London.Dixie said:
Thank you, really helpful.ThomasNashe said:
He was involved in an interesting discussion on C4 news last night about gang culture and knife crime. I thought he did OK, and clearly his participation is evidence that he knows he needs to involve himself with issues that affect Londoners who don't live in Richmond or Twickenham. But he will need to do a lot more of that kind of thing if he's to win.kle4 said:
Given the apparent hardening, not weakening, support for Labour in London since the election of Corbyn, how does he intend to go about challenging Khan in those stronger Labour areas? What does he offer those areas which feel tempted by the Corbyn type of politics?Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
And yes, he also needs to be very happy that London is the destination of choice for the Uber-rich. Proud that the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. That London is attracting the rich - the rich who pay for our NHS. If we attract even more, then we can have the best health service in the world..... Of course, they have to pay their fair share of tax. And this Govt. has been more wealth redistributive than Labour have ever dreamt.
He also needs a message on housing - frankly, a message which I don't have any suggestions about!
If NOBODY can get a mortgage, what happens to prices? Not enough oligarchs and cash buyers to sustain it
Prices are insane and HtB is desperately pumping air into a leaky balloon. Currently the pumping is winning, but it can't last forever. I feel genuinely sorry for those who will at some point in the near future buy at the top of the market which potentially has a long way to fall. She may not agree but your friend will likely be better off sticking to renting
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That's reassuring, although he didn't have a Labour party to fight.Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
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Plus the Tories are going to be able to tap into the fabulous effort they ran in the May 2015 election campaign. That resource is not to be underestimated. Rafts of Londoners will again be getting very targeted messages, designed to play on their fears of Corbyn and a politically changing London....Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
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Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
Oooh, I missed that. Thanks.Wanderer said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:
Already posted in The TimesWanderer said:Would be interesting to get DMcB's thoughts on Corbyn's relationships with Brownites, Watson especially. Is Watson a long term threat to Corbyn. What about Dugher? Would be very interested in any insights into Labour machine politics.
For the last few days, the angry voices flooding the news channels, radio and Twitter have left an old, retired Brownite like me wiping a nostalgic tear from my eye: Michael Dugher, Kevan Jones, Ian Austin, and – of course – the silence that speaks volumes from Tom Watson, the deputy leader.
I’m no Star Wars fan, but I know a force awakening when I see one.
But this time it’s different. Jeremy Corbyn – or more accurately, the wild-eyed zealots around him – have pulled off a unique feat.
For the first time in two decades, the Blairites, Brownites and neutrals within the parliamentary Labour party are fully as one.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:
Already posted in The TimesWanderer said:Would be interesting to get DMcB's thoughts on Corbyn's relationships with Brownites, Watson especially. Is Watson a long term threat to Corbyn. What about Dugher? Would be very interested in any insights into Labour machine politics.
For the last few days, the angry voices flooding the news channels, radio and Twitter have left an old, retired Brownite like me wiping a nostalgic tear from my eye: Michael Dugher, Kevan Jones, Ian Austin, and – of course – the silence that speaks volumes from Tom Watson, the deputy leader.
I’m no Star Wars fan, but I know a force awakening when I see one.
But this time it’s different. Jeremy Corbyn – or more accurately, the wild-eyed zealots around him – have pulled off a unique feat.
For the first time in two decades, the Blairites, Brownites and neutrals within the parliamentary Labour party are fully as one.
That's a very interesting article actually. And the final paragraph is like a horse's head on Corbyn's pillow.0 -
Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
But it's a small number of delegates in any case; the value of a win isn't in the delegate it delivers but rather in the momentum it delivers. Sure, this race could, maybe, get to the convention an the odd delegate here and there might make a difference, but the likelihood is that it won't. Winning is all that matters for Trump - every time he wins a state with 25% or 30%, he's a winner again.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: We need to understand the rules for translating votes into delegates in NH. It's basically a proportional system, with a 10% threshold. In summary:
- There are 20 delegates elected in the primary (and 'bound' to their candidate), plus 3 ex-officio delegates not bound to any particular candidate
- If a candidate withdraws between the primary and the convention, the delegates pledged to him or her can vote for any of the other candidates
- Delegates are allocated based on the 20 × candidate's vote ÷ total statewide vote, rounded to the nearest whole number.
- There's one rule I don't quite understand: "Any delegate positions that remain open are awarded to the candidate with the highest statewide vote total.". Does that mean that, if the leading candidate picks up (say) 30% and the also-rans who don't individually make 10% collectively get between them (say) 20%, that the leading candidate gets half of the total? If so, that is potentially a big factor.
Note that, even if Trump 'wins' against a crowded field, that doesn't necessarily mean he gets a commanding share of the available delegates; as the establishment figures drop out of the race, it is likely that the remaining leading establishment figure will pick up the non-Trump delegates.
More details here:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-R0 -
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No, but the LibDems were very well dug in.Dixie said:
That's reassuring, although he didn't have a Labour party to fight.Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
Of course, the obvious caveat is that Richmond is far from typical of London as a whole.0 -
The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.0 -
The Tories will certainly mention Corbyn more than Khan does.MarqueeMark said:
Plus the Tories are going to be able to tap into the fabulous effort they ran in the May 2015 election campaign. That resource is not to be underestimated. Rafts of Londoners will again be getting very targeted messages, designed to play on their fears of Corbyn and a politically changing London....Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
0 -
Now I wonder why Khan has screamed racist so loudly and so early on in this campaign (over attacks that aren't in any way racist). I think we here lots more cries of it to e.g. those claims against a Zac supporting canvasser, who just happened to say something inappropriate to a Labourite with good media connections...but it being only him and them, nobody can prove one way or another.Cyclefree said:
Google Babar Ahmed. Khan does have some baggage. He is trying to shed it.TOPPING said:Khan comes with none of the baggage that Ken did (a brief mention of Al Qaradawi brought votes to Boris from a demographic that historically has been split Lab/Con).
Londoners can also be mulish, if not impish, and it might amuse them to snub Zac in favour of Khan.0 -
I was asking the crowd. With all this political knowledge, PB.com could become a brand to match Lynton Crosby and co! We could collectively fight elections around the world, whatever the political slant.Innocent_Abroad said:
OGH is not a Tory. So why would he "intellectually" go with Goldsmith?Dixie said:
Either/both. I realise not everyone is a blue but intellectually, wouldn't it be good to say 'it was politicalbetting.com wot won it!'Theuniondivvie said:
I assume you mean as an intellectual exercise rather than implying a prevailing bias on the site.Dixie said:I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
0 -
Corbyn cares not a jot.Wanderer said:That's a very interesting article actually. And the final paragraph is like a horse's head on Corbyn's pillow.
On which note
https://www.the-pool.com/life/life-honestly/2016/1/why-everyone-needs-a-f-ck-budget
Things on Jezza's budget
the PLP
winning elections0 -
Tory In Name Only.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, TINO?
Amusing to see people who voted for Blair telling the rest of us who are and aren't real Tories.0 -
If the 2015 Tory success is repeated in London, Khan will win.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories will certainly mention Corbyn more than Khan does.MarqueeMark said:
Plus the Tories are going to be able to tap into the fabulous effort they ran in the May 2015 election campaign. That resource is not to be underestimated. Rafts of Londoners will again be getting very targeted messages, designed to play on their fears of Corbyn and a politically changing London....Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
0 -
Khan has baggage, I am trying to get Zac to focus very precisely on dodgy Khan. It's no good saying Khan plays the race card in my opinion. Saying he hangs around with murderers is the key.Cyclefree said:
Google Babar Ahmed. Khan does have some baggage. He is trying to shed it.TOPPING said:Khan comes with none of the baggage that Ken did (a brief mention of Al Qaradawi brought votes to Boris from a demographic that historically has been split Lab/Con).
Londoners can also be mulish, if not impish, and it might amuse them to snub Zac in favour of Khan.0 -
Hmm. Zac?Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Anyway to @Cyclefree and @FrancisUrquhart - I googled and used Wiki for Babar Ahmad and Sadiq Khan. I failed to find the smoking gun.
I read what US federal judge Janet Hall said: "Neither of these two defendants [Ahmad and another] were interested in what is commonly known as terrorism".
Khan went to see him in prison, and was bugged.
Is there a whole different side to the Ahmad story which proves he was all the things the US courts found him not to be?0 -
No mention of the incident on the BBC yet....dr_spyn said:The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.0 -
As a dilattente, Zac is unlikely to inspire the aspirational and will therefore probably lose to the racist muslim.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Still, nevermind, it's the tories fault for picking such a bad candidate.
0 -
OK, that's helpful. Thank youdavid_herdson said:
A man of the people is a bonus. A man for the people is an essential.Dixie said:
Thank you. He does need to be a man of the people, I accept.TOPPING said:
When Lab reorganises to become an effective political force, or even now, do you think it will help or hinder the Conservatives, who arguably suffer from a perception that they govern for the elite, to have yet another priveleged, male, OE posho in a key position of power?Dixie said:I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
0 -
Sounds like second Islamist attack of the day on Westerners.dr_spyn said:The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.0 -
Mr. Dixie, not a Londoner so can't really think of a relevant question, but I do think throwing it out here makes sense.
The race card line is a valid one to take.0 -
Tory in name only. And I'm a wet Tory member who likes Cameron and voted for Tony.
That I feel he's more interested in Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers is a worry. My world doesn't revolve around green issues. His seems to.Dixie said:Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
Assuming "TINO = Tory in name only".....Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
Mr. Eagles, not sure a Yorkshireman who joined the Lancashire Cricket Club is in a position to be giving lectures on loyalty.0
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Don't know about that but I think the best two or three posters here (mentioning no names) have a higher level of understanding of electoral politics than almost any MSM pundit.Dixie said:
I was asking the crowd. With all this political knowledge, PB.com could become a brand to match Lynton Crosby and co! We could collectively fight elections around the world, whatever the political slant.Innocent_Abroad said:
OGH is not a Tory. So why would he "intellectually" go with Goldsmith?Dixie said:
Either/both. I realise not everyone is a blue but intellectually, wouldn't it be good to say 'it was politicalbetting.com wot won it!'Theuniondivvie said:
I assume you mean as an intellectual exercise rather than implying a prevailing bias on the site.Dixie said:I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
0 -
I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: We need to understand the rules for translating votes into delegates in NH. It's basically a proportional system, with a 10% threshold. In summary:
- There are 20 delegates elected in the primary (and 'bound' to their candidate), plus 3 ex-officio delegates not bound to any particular candidate
- If a candidate withdraws between the primary and the convention, the delegates pledged to him or her can vote for any of the other candidates
- Delegates are allocated based on the 20 × candidate's vote ÷ total statewide vote, rounded to the nearest whole number.
- There's one rule I don't quite understand: "Any delegate positions that remain open are awarded to the candidate with the highest statewide vote total.". Does that mean that, if the leading candidate picks up (say) 30% and the also-rans who don't individually make 10% collectively get between them (say) 20%, that the leading candidate gets half of the total? If so, that is potentially a big factor.
Note that, even if Trump 'wins' against a crowded field, that doesn't necessarily mean he gets a commanding share of the available delegates; as the establishment figures drop out of the race, it is likely that the remaining leading establishment figure will pick up the non-Trump delegates.
More details here:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-R0 -
Tory in name only.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, TINO?
I doubt Plato is the only Tory inclined voter to think that about Zac - as well as the rest of what's he wrote about him.0 -
Evening Standard - Police shoot man with explosive vest dead. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/man-wearing-explosive-vest-shot-outside-paris-police-station-a3150801.html
0 -
Not really, we can see one.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory In Name Only.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, TINO?
Amusing to see people who voted for Blair telling the rest of us who are and aren't real Tories.0 -
Indy now have up the terrorist attack in Egypt though..MarqueeMark said:
No mention of the incident on the BBC yet....dr_spyn said:The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.
Tourists have been attacked by suspected gunmen in Cairo as they boarded a bus near the city's ancient pyramids.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/cairo-bus-attack-gunmen-on-motorbike-shoot-at-tourists-in-egyptian-capital-city-a6800386.html0 -
BTW, assuming Zac isn't already a member of pb.com (having a larf posting as "malcolmg" maybe?) then suggest he would be very welcome....0
-
Just seen a breaking news link on their website.MarqueeMark said:
No mention of the incident on the BBC yet....dr_spyn said:The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.0 -
Zac gives off the impression of only being a Tory by virtue of his social background.Plato_Says said:Tory in name only. And I'm a wet Tory member who likes Cameron and voted for Tony.
That I feel he's more interested in Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers is a worry. My world doesn't revolve around green issues. His seems to.Dixie said:Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
Sure, but I think that we might be misled into thinking that Trump's lead (assuming he remains in the lead) is bigger than it appears because of the fragmentation of the establishment vote. Both in terms of transfers of delegates from the early states, and later on as the big winner-takes-all states come into play, the eventual establishment leader might do better than looks likely early on.david_herdson said:I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.
Of course this assumes that Trump doesn't win the big winner-takes-all states. Basically the GOP establishment needs to whittle down the field PDQ.
0 -
Anniversary of Hebdo attack...dr_spyn said:
Evening Standard - Police shoot man with explosive vest dead. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/man-wearing-explosive-vest-shot-outside-paris-police-station-a3150801.html
0 -
Well if I am wrong then the BBC is wrong. It says that similar organised gangs of robbers have been active at this location on new years eve for at least the last 5 years. Its something the police were aware of.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am interested by this claim of a "long history" of robbery in this location. I have been to Cologne on a number of occasions, but not for the past 3 years. It never struck me as a dangerous place after dark, never seen large gangs of dodgy people hanging around and none of those yellow signs warning of such.flightpath01 said:
Both are wrong. The actions in Germany are criminal in two ways the harassment and molestation (1) were the shield for organised robbery (2). There is a long history of organised robbery at this place at that time. The German police do seem quite culpable, so perhaps they are happy to see all sorts of blame go elsewhere. As far as I can see there is no official sanction for a so called code of conduct for women, only a crass remark from the Mayor of Cologne, which has been shouted down.CD13 said:Mr Divvie,
On an information point, the full phrase is "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me."
I believe there is a lot of difference between being angry and writing silly things, and carrying out an act of violence. Otherwise we'd have a jail in every street.
Ralf may think that it's more important to investigate some spotty seventeen-year-old who posts on-line than stop rape and sexual assault taking place in the middle of his city.
Perhaps some of the Rotherham officials had the same opinion. I prefer to think Ralf is trying to muddy the waters and deflect attention from his own inadequacies.
In comparison, if this had been Las Ramblas in Barcelona, I would agree with the statement. My whole adult life that has been an area where tourists are warned of potential issues after dark.
The Mayor of Cologne, who made the stupid remarks, I now realise is a woman BTW.
Frankly if you cannot see these very serious issues being used to ferment a witchhunt then you need to look again. These are serious events, very serious, in their own right, there have been similar happenings in Dusseldorf apparently over the last 3 years, but the accusations of thousands of attackers and the implications of multiple rape are not at all clear0 -
But the second preference of Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers could well determine who is Mayor.... (I'm assuming UKIP voters aren't going for Labour.)Plato_Says said:Tory in name only. And I'm a wet Tory member who likes Cameron and voted for Tony.
That I feel he's more interested in Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers is a worry. My world doesn't revolve around green issues. His seems to.Dixie said:Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
You might want to change your version of google...TOPPING said:
Hmm. Zac?Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Anyway to @Cyclefree and @FrancisUrquhart - I googled and used Wiki for Babar Ahmad and Sadiq Khan. I failed to find the smoking gun.
I read what US federal judge Janet Hall said: "Neither of these two defendants [Ahmad and another] were interested in what is commonly known as terrorism".
Khan went to see him in prison, and was bugged.
Is there a whole different side to the Ahmad story which proves he was all the things the US courts found him not to be?
He fought as a Jihadi.
He distributed extremist material over the course of many many years.
He got sentenced to 12 years.
But yes the judge didn't think he wanted to go around harming people personally.
As for Khan. I can't remember which version of the story he likes to say is the truth these days. The one he told of Ahmad being a very close childhood friend or the one where he virtually knew nothing about him other than when called upon as his constituency MP.
0 -
I quite agree. I just think there's a chance of regional outrage developing towards the North London leadership, much akin to the Scottish 'branch office' episode, and the Mirror and Maguire have started to voice it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't disagree with that. But normally if it is bad for Labour they just stay quiet, not go out of their way to stick the boot in. I don't remember them kicking Miliband in the nuts very often.chestnut said:
The Daily Mirror has always struck me as an old-school, working class, Labour paper.FrancisUrquhart said:
You know its bad for Labour, when even the Mirror are taking a pop every day.dr_spyn said:Has Abbott upset the Mirror?
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/685046823535407104
It's never been like the Guardian or the Indy.0 -
Mirror mention that a robot has been used to inspect the body.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/paris-police-station-shooting-man-7132984#ICID=sharebar_twitter0 -
Yet again, pb.com ahead of the Beeb as a news source....dr_spyn said:
Just seen a breaking news link on their website.MarqueeMark said:
No mention of the incident on the BBC yet....dr_spyn said:The man shot dead by police this morning at #Paris wore an explosive belt: our http://snpy.tv/1OQzXRG information
Just seen that posted by Harry Cole.0 -
You are a nylon wet Tory. Gets dry very quickly.Plato_Says said:Tory in name only. And I'm a wet Tory member who likes Cameron and voted for Tony.
That I feel he's more interested in Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers is a worry. My world doesn't revolve around green issues. His seems to.Dixie said:Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
So we could have simultaneous elections for Labour and the Conservatives in October. Has Mike booked a holiday or something?david_herdson said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:Damian McBride predicts a coup around conference time
The combined weight of the Brownite and Blairite machines, together with the authority that the centrist neutrals give them, could bring down even the most powerful of leaders, and Jeremy Corbyn is certainly not that.
When the coup comes, it will not be the hapless Hoon and Hewitt waving a letter of protest. It will be Dugher and McFadden in a pair of tanks, with a 200-strong army of MPs behind them. Get ready for your October Revolution, Mr Corbyn.
Wishful thinking from McBride.0 -
You forgot this key fact: Ahmed pleaded guilty to "conspiracy and providing material to support terrorism".TOPPING said:
Hmm. Zac?Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Anyway to @Cyclefree and @FrancisUrquhart - I googled and used Wiki for Babar Ahmad and Sadiq Khan. I failed to find the smoking gun.
I read what US federal judge Janet Hall said: "Neither of these two defendants [Ahmad and another] were interested in what is commonly known as terrorism".
Khan went to see him in prison, and was bugged.
Is there a whole different side to the Ahmad story which proves he was all the things the US courts found him not to be?
The issues around Khan are that at various times he has given a number of evasive and/or inconsistent answers about his relationship with Ahmed. The issue is therefore whether he has been entirely straightforward and honest in his answers, which I think is a relevant consideration for any Mayoral candidate. One would like to think that a Mayoral candidate for a city which is at high risk of terrorism would want to be utterly straightforward about his links with someone who has been convicted as a result of his own guilty plea of terrorism related offences - even if the judge thought he was less culpable than others. Especially given how Labour is being portrayed as the terrorists' party as a result of Corbyn, McDonnell and Livingstone.
To be fair, I think Khan realises that this is a potential weakness and has tried to address it - in a speech he made shortly after the Paris attacks. But in these last few days we have learnt that saying what might seem like the bleeding obvious - terrorists are bad people and should be held responsible for their actions - is apparently a Bad Thing in Corbyn's Labour.
I do not want to give any support at all to this idea by supporting a Labour candidate, I'm afraid. Those who seek to excuse terrorists are despicable. It's up to Labour if they want to be tainted by the Corbyn-view.
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I presume the fact today is anniversary of Charlie Hebdo attacks is no coincidence in regards to the nutter in Paris.0
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*If*.Jonathan said:
If the 2015 Tory success is repeated in London, Khan will win.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories will certainly mention Corbyn more than Khan does.MarqueeMark said:
Plus the Tories are going to be able to tap into the fabulous effort they ran in the May 2015 election campaign. That resource is not to be underestimated. Rafts of Londoners will again be getting very targeted messages, designed to play on their fears of Corbyn and a politically changing London....Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
At the GE the Conservatives saw a 0.4% increase in the capital; Labour a 7.1%. (1) Whilst Corbynism is abhorrent to many, that factor might be counteracted in the mayoral election by the fact the Labour leadership is very heavily Londoncentric. Livinsgstone lost by much less than Labour's gain at the 2015 GE. (2)
But mayoral elections are odd things. If you look at the 2012 mayoral elections (2) against the 2010 London GE results (3), then there seems little correlation. The same can be seen in the 2008 mayoral elections (4) and the 2005 GE (5)
The fact it is a supplementary vote election will also have an effect. Turnout will be important; it's easy to argue that whoever has the best gotv system will win.
Try as I might, I just cannot see which way it'll go.
(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(London)
(2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012
(3): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010_(London)
(4): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
(5): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005_(London)0 -
I simply don't trust him to back his own side when the chips are down. It's a terrible perception. I expected Boris to be his own PR machine as it suited him, but I feel Zac is using the Mayoralty as a vehicle for his personal hobby horse.
A very different kettle of fish and not too different to Saqid and ethnic quotas in terms of ideology.Casino_Royale said:
Zac gives off the impression of only being a Tory by virtue of his social background.Plato_Says said:Tory in name only. And I'm a wet Tory member who likes Cameron and voted for Tony.
That I feel he's more interested in Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers is a worry. My world doesn't revolve around green issues. His seems to.Dixie said:Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.0 -
Foment. Fermenting is something altogether different.flightpath01 said:
Well if I am wrong then the BBC is wrong. It says that similar organised gangs of robbers have been active at this location on new years eve for at least the last 5 years. Its something the police were aware of.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am interested by this claim of a "long history" of robbery in this location. I have been to Cologne on a number of occasions, but not for the past 3 years. It never struck me as a dangerous place after dark, never seen large gangs of dodgy people hanging around and none of those yellow signs warning of such.flightpath01 said:
Both are wrong. The actions in Germany are criminal in two ways the harassment and molestation (1) were the shield for organised robbery (2). There is a long history of organised robbery at this place at that time. The German police do seem quite culpable, so perhaps they are happy to see all sorts of blame go elsewhere. As far as I can see there is no official sanction for a so called code of conduct for women, only a crass remark from the Mayor of Cologne, which has been shouted down.CD13 said:Mr Divvie,
On an information point, the full phrase is "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me."
I believe there is a lot of difference between being angry and writing silly things, and carrying out an act of violence. Otherwise we'd have a jail in every street.
Ralf may think that it's more important to investigate some spotty seventeen-year-old who posts on-line than stop rape and sexual assault taking place in the middle of his city.
Perhaps some of the Rotherham officials had the same opinion. I prefer to think Ralf is trying to muddy the waters and deflect attention from his own inadequacies.
In comparison, if this had been Las Ramblas in Barcelona, I would agree with the statement. My whole adult life that has been an area where tourists are warned of potential issues after dark.
The Mayor of Cologne, who made the stupid remarks, I now realise is a woman BTW.
Frankly if you cannot see these very serious issues being used to ferment a witchhunt then you need to look again. These are serious events, very serious, in their own right, there have been similar happenings in Dusseldorf apparently over the last 3 years, but the accusations of thousands of attackers and the implications of multiple rape are not at all clear0 -
I thought the initial Republican primaries would allocate delegates through"proportional" means. So, Trump will get around 30% of the delegates.
Perception ? Maybe. But candidates will let their voters know the rules. So Jeb Bush can hang in there.0 -
It seems he supported the Taliban up to and then, crucially, including post 9/11 and OBL's move to Afghan (one of the US prosecutors said his activities included while OBL was "planning" 9/11).FrancisUrquhart said:
You might want to change your version of google...TOPPING said:
Hmm. Zac?Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Anyway to @Cyclefree and @FrancisUrquhart - I googled and used Wiki for Babar Ahmad and Sadiq Khan. I failed to find the smoking gun.
I read what US federal judge Janet Hall said: "Neither of these two defendants [Ahmad and another] were interested in what is commonly known as terrorism".
Khan went to see him in prison, and was bugged.
Is there a whole different side to the Ahmad story which proves he was all the things the US courts found him not to be?
He fought as a Jihadi.
He distributed extremist material over the course of many many years.
He got sentenced to 12 years.
But yes the judge didn't think he wanted to go around harming people personally.
As for Khan. I can't remember which version of the story he likes to say is the truth these days. The one he told of Ahmad being a very close childhood friend or the one where he virtually knew nothing about him other than when called upon as his constituency MP.
From the DT:
"In a statement to the court, he admitted that for a period of months after the Sept 2001 terror attacks he continued use his websites to enlist support for the Taliban from Muslims around the world. But he said that he now realised he was naive and misunderstood the relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Ahmad’s lawyers argued that he deeply regretted his support for the Taliban and publicly condemned the 9/11 atrocities."
Well of course he would say that wouldn't he. And yes, prior to 9/11 he supported Jihad (he fought in Chechnya).
But the impression I got from the various (expanded googling) reports is that he was also sinned against.
Whether pre-9/11 to support the Taliban was a good or bad thing I am not up enough on my recent Afghan history to know.
0 -
French President Francois Hollande has promised 5,000 extra police posts in an "unprecedented" strengthening of French security, a year after the attack on Charlie Hebdo magazine by jihadists.
Soon after he spoke, Paris police shot and killed a suspect who allegedly tried to break into a police station.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-352503440 -
One of the key things will be turnout.Dixie said:
Very useful. You can see why Cameron believes in home ownership.chestnut said:As a point of reference regarding the London Mayoral contest:
London Votes - 2015
Labour 1.545m (43.7%)
Tory 1.233m (34.9%)
UKIP 0.287m (8.1%)
Lib Dems 0.273m (7.7%)
Green 0.172m (4.9%)
UKIP supporters are highly unlikely to back Khan, which leaves the main two fairly closely matched. It's the LD/Greens who hold the balance.
Comres polled London late in March and had 46-32 (so they were out by 2.6 swing) and the divide between various groups was:
White: Con 40 Lab 31
BAME: Lab 68 Con 21
Homeowner: Con 46 Lab 34
Social Rent: Lab 65 Con 11
Private Rent: Lab 60 Con 17
Long term, the Tories need to change the housing mix from rent to ownership, and the bloated, expensive and excessive housing benefit bill for London is reasonable justification.
Dividing London into a set of regions shows that N, S and W were closely matched. Labour's core is to the East.
Note: YG and Comres were between 4-6 points out at the GE. Any reported lead for Khan in that ball-park area could easily be a tie.
Individual Voter Registration and shy Tories in opinion polls might mean if Zac is 5 points behind on election day, he could win. Neck and neck he is highly likely to win.
2000 - 34%
2004 - 37%
2008 - 45%
2012 - 38%
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow0 -
So we could have simultaneous elections for Labour and the Conservatives in October. Has Mike booked a holiday or something?david_herdson said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/the-brownite-machine-flickers-into-life-and-will-declare-war-on-corbynScott_P said:Damian McBride predicts a coup around conference time
The combined weight of the Brownite and Blairite machines, together with the authority that the centrist neutrals give them, could bring down even the most powerful of leaders, and Jeremy Corbyn is certainly not that.
When the coup comes, it will not be the hapless Hoon and Hewitt waving a letter of protest. It will be Dugher and McFadden in a pair of tanks, with a 200-strong army of MPs behind them. Get ready for your October Revolution, Mr Corbyn.
What the McBride piece says to me is that for next Labour leader one should be looking at the kind of figure that a machine operation would unite around. Definitely not Benn. Maybe Watson himself? Not sure.
That piece and Henry G Manson yesterday have got me thinking that Corbyn may not last that long after all. Yes, Labour has no history of ousting leaders but it has also never had a leader so extreme and inept.0 -
Makes a lot of sense.Cyclefree said:
You forgot this key fact: Ahmed pleaded guilty to "conspiracy and providing material to support terrorism".TOPPING said:
Hmm. Zac?Dixie said:
Thank you. I don't what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.Plato_Says said:I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Anyway to @Cyclefree and @FrancisUrquhart - I googled and used Wiki for Babar Ahmad and Sadiq Khan. I failed to find the smoking gun.
I read what US federal judge Janet Hall said: "Neither of these two defendants [Ahmad and another] were interested in what is commonly known as terrorism".
Khan went to see him in prison, and was bugged.
Is there a whole different side to the Ahmad story which proves he was all the things the US courts found him not to be?
The issues around Khan are that at various times he has given a number of evasive and/or inconsistent answers about his relationship with Ahmed. The issue is therefore whether he has been entirely straightforward and honest in his answers, which I think is a relevant consideration for any Mayoral candidate. One would like to think that a Mayoral candidate for a city which is at high risk of terrorism would want to be utterly straightforward about his links with someone who has been convicted as a result of his own guilty plea of terrorism related offences - even if the judge thought he was less culpable than others. Especially given how Labour is being portrayed as the terrorists' party as a result of Corbyn, McDonnell and Livingstone.
To be fair, I think Khan realises that this is a potential weakness and has tried to address it - in a speech he made shortly after the Paris attacks. But in these last few days we have learnt that saying what might seem like the bleeding obvious - terrorists are bad people and should be held responsible for their actions - is apparently a Bad Thing in Corbyn's Labour.
I do not want to give any support at all to this idea by supporting a Labour candidate, I'm afraid. Those who seek to excuse terrorists are despicable. It's up to Labour if they want to be tainted by the Corbyn-view.
I will keep a close eye on him and his pronouncements.
Thank you (and @FrancisUrquhart )0 -
Yes, turnout will be more crucial than changing voter's voting choice. Half of those who voted in GE won't vote! Get an extra 20% of your GE voters to turn out then you win. Issues will be housing, transport, crime but a clear message seems to be the hardest part at the moment. Thank you for the information.GarethoftheVale2 said:
One of the key things will be turnout.Dixie said:
Very useful. You can see why Cameron believes in home ownership.chestnut said:As a point of reference regarding the London Mayoral contest:
London Votes - 2015
Labour 1.545m (43.7%)
Tory 1.233m (34.9%)
UKIP 0.287m (8.1%)
Lib Dems 0.273m (7.7%)
Green 0.172m (4.9%)
UKIP supporters are highly unlikely to back Khan, which leaves the main two fairly closely matched. It's the LD/Greens who hold the balance.
Comres polled London late in March and had 46-32 (so they were out by 2.6 swing) and the divide between various groups was:
White: Con 40 Lab 31
BAME: Lab 68 Con 21
Homeowner: Con 46 Lab 34
Social Rent: Lab 65 Con 11
Private Rent: Lab 60 Con 17
Long term, the Tories need to change the housing mix from rent to ownership, and the bloated, expensive and excessive housing benefit bill for London is reasonable justification.
Dividing London into a set of regions shows that N, S and W were closely matched. Labour's core is to the East.
Note: YG and Comres were between 4-6 points out at the GE. Any reported lead for Khan in that ball-park area could easily be a tie.
Individual Voter Registration and shy Tories in opinion polls might mean if Zac is 5 points behind on election day, he could win. Neck and neck he is highly likely to win.
2000 - 34%
2004 - 37%
2008 - 45%
2012 - 38%
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow0 -
That isn't the only baggage on Khan BTW. Like many politicians there is plenty of normal stuff to be going at. But then there is on Zac too e.g. I am sure we will here all about his non-dom'ing again (even though he gave it up) and his personal life.TOPPING said:
Makes a lot of sense.
I will keep a close eye on him and his pronouncements.
Thank you (and @FrancisUrquhart )0 -
Just as well that Monsieur Hollande doesn't take the same view on shooting those attempting terrorist attacks as Corbyn does.0
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Has it ever had a PLP so supine?Wanderer said:That piece and Henry G Manson yesterday have got me thinking that Corbyn may not last that long after all. Yes, Labour has no history of ousting leaders but it has also never had a leader so extreme and inept.
David Cameron openly mocking Hilary Benn and others for agreeing to sit in Jezza's shadow cabinet at PMQs, as they tacitly support his entire lunatic agenda.0 -
DP Some UK exams to be rescheduled due to Ramadan.
Cue PB Tory meltdown.0 -
Being in the balance is better than Khan wins. Tories have a chance then. I've gots lots to talk to Zac about. Thank you.JosiasJessop said:
*If*.Jonathan said:
If the 2015 Tory success is repeated in London, Khan will win.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories will certainly mention Corbyn more than Khan does.MarqueeMark said:
Plus the Tories are going to be able to tap into the fabulous effort they ran in the May 2015 election campaign. That resource is not to be underestimated. Rafts of Londoners will again be getting very targeted messages, designed to play on their fears of Corbyn and a politically changing London....Richard_Nabavi said:On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
At the GE the Conservatives saw a 0.4% increase in the capital; Labour a 7.1%. (1) Whilst Corbynism is abhorrent to many, that factor might be counteracted in the mayoral election by the fact the Labour leadership is very heavily Londoncentric. Livinsgstone lost by much less than Labour's gain at the 2015 GE. (2)
But mayoral elections are odd things. If you look at the 2012 mayoral elections (2) against the 2010 London GE results (3), then there seems little correlation. The same can be seen in the 2008 mayoral elections (4) and the 2005 GE (5)
The fact it is a supplementary vote election will also have an effect. Turnout will be important; it's easy to argue that whoever has the best gotv system will win.
Try as I might, I just cannot see which way it'll go.
(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(London)
(2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012
(3): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010_(London)
(4): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
(5): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005_(London)0 -
I expect to hear JJ on the media exclaiming disgust at the police. They should have asked his gentleman to go for a nice goat's milk latte to discuss his issues.dr_spyn said:French President Francois Hollande has promised 5,000 extra police posts in an "unprecedented" strengthening of French security, a year after the attack on Charlie Hebdo magazine by jihadists.
Soon after he spoke, Paris police shot and killed a suspect who allegedly tried to break into a police station.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-352503440 -
Quite. Hollande is a socialist who understands what the state's primary duty to its citizens is.Richard_Nabavi said:Just as well that Monsieur Hollande doesn't take the same view on shooting those attempting terrorist attacks as Corbyn does.
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