@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
In as much as Labour is a London Party, London is a Labour city - and the Tories need an exceptional candidate (like a Boris) to win it - what possessed them to think Goldsmith had that 'star quality' is beyond me.....
While I think Khan is ahead, it's far from being a certainty. We shouldn't confuse London Labour activists with London Labour voters. The allegiance of the latter group is a lot softer than that of the former. A lot will depend on what happens in the immediate run-up to May, but I see no prospect of the party coming to its senses before then.
That said, Khan is quite adept at avoiding being identified with the more lunatic statements of Corbyn and McDonnell. And he'll probably be able to suggest enough distance between himself and them to prevent himself from being too damaged by the Corbynite chaos.
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for Corbyn
I'm going to frame your comment for posterity as a fine example of a long distance expect who views the American election through the prism of British politics
Trump likely will win NH , but Rubio will come second and THAT will be the real story out of NH ...the unification of the Establishment !..Rubio will also win Nevada !
Again, rubbish, the GOP establishment tried to thrust Nelson Rockefeller on the GOP base in 1964, they failed abysmally and the base nominated Barry Goldwater. The latest poll has Rubio trailing Trump badly in Nevada and the continued presence of Ted Cruz in the race will keep opposition to Trump divided, once Trump wins South Carolina then Rubio's campaign is over, Bill Clinton won South Carolina after he got second in New Hampshire and Cruz is more likely to win there than Rubio
If Trump is the candidate he will get a similar result to Goldwater.
That said, at least a couple of women were raped. We know that, as well as the many more robbed/groped. If people break the law online (such as when they encouraged looting in 2011 over here) that should be dealt with, but I don't think most people, here or in Germany, would agree that a racist, moronic comment online can be considered as bad as a horde of rapists, molesters and thieves menacing hundreds of women.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Labour MP Richard Burgon: “It amazes me that the media were content to hang around in Jeremy Corbyn’s stairwell for eight hours.” @bbc5live
Some wag in my office quipped yesterday 'why is everything that is really good in life either illegal, immoral or fattening'? To which another astute wag retorted 'so the buggers can tax it'.
Got me thinking. We are indeed moving towards taxing sugar in fizzy drinks - one of the leading causes of obesity. The HMRC has been going after the tax due from - ahem - 'immoral earnings'. On the 'illegal' front I note that the war on drugs has been an abject failure and in even the rather puritan USA there are now many states with legalised marijuana production. Actually some of these pot companies are now floating on the stock market and generating significant profits AND TAXES.
So if George Osborne is worrying about the money maybe one thing he could push for would be for the UK to go down the route of the USA and legalise, regularise, regulate and tax marijuana. Be worth billions I reckon.
Rubio has very high favourables among women in NH by a ratio of 1:2
Trump polls less than Bernie Sanders ; he only looks like a winner because the establishment have not yet picked their candidate ; furthermore , Trump already has maximum exposure as everyone in the US already knows who Trump is ...he has already hit his ceiling , while Rubio is still coming into focus , but the more that folks see of Rubio the more they like him ...he is the obvious winner to folks who actually know how to read between the lines !
The reason why Trump can get away with saying outrageous things is because all sensible voters realize he can never be president ...he is in fact just a cheerleader , a rodeo clown and court jester ! He is primarily an entertainer where crowds can live vicariously through him , unrestrained by politeness and political correctness
Many of the women there will vote for Hillary though Sanders may win the Democratic primary in NH. Rubio has to win one of Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina in February or his race is over, at the moment he trails in all of them. Most sensible voters do not see a Marxist Tramp like Corbyn as a future PM but he still became Labour leader
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......
Mr/Mrs Vance, there will be a referendum, you will vote IN, I will vote OUT.
I have no problem with that.
I don't know how I'd vote yet.
If Cameron can get a reasonable deal, I'd prefer to stay - but if he can't, I'd vote 'Leave'.
But not on the basis of any of the arguments advanced - so far - by 'Leave' - like Scottish independence - I'm not opposed in principle - but I want to see a decent picture of what the alternative might look like.
Like the NATS you believe that 'leaving the EU' (Independence) is an absolute moral good and (to an extent) 'bugger the consequences'.
Not a great position from which to persuade others......
How do you predict the future?
I could live either with being part of the EEA, or having some bespoke arrangement. Both seem preferable to what we have at present, let alone further integration.
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
The Labour "Establishment" couldn't stop Jeremy Corbyn.
Similarly, if Trump has enough support from Republican Party supporters, then the Republican Establishment will be powerless to stop him. The Establishment can't change the rules of the game now and bar him from standing as a candidate in caucuses & primaries, or stop his delegates from entering the Convention.
Secondly, Trump's policies (opposition to immigration, lower taxes etc) aren't inconsistent with Republican Party policies. There would be no strong ideological reasons for the Establishment to oppose him. They may think that he would be a weak candidate, or dislike him as a person, but would still accept him as the candidate if he is the clear winner.
Agree though I think a few establishment figures may even prefer Hillary to Trump
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for Corbyn
I'm going to frame your comment for posterity as a fine example of a long distance expect who views the American election through the prism of British politics
Trump likely will win NH , but Rubio will come second and THAT will be the real story out of NH ...the unification of the Establishment !..Rubio will also win Nevada !
Interesting to see the betting. On August 7th when Mike singing the praises of a lady republican long forgotten I posted this;
"from the clips of the debate I've seen Senator Rubio struck me as the most impressive and Senator Cruz the least. Having a history of getting US elections wildly wrong I now expect the next President of the United States to be Senator Ted Cruz."
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......
Mr/Mrs Vance, there will be a referendum, you will vote IN, I will vote OUT.
I have no problem with that.
I don't know how I'd vote yet.
If Cameron can get a reasonable deal, I'd prefer to stay - but if he can't, I'd vote 'Leave'.
But not on the basis of any of the arguments advanced - so far - by 'Leave' - like Scottish independence - I'm not opposed in principle - but I want to see a decent picture of what the alternative might look like.
Like the NATS you believe that 'leaving the EU' (Independence) is an absolute moral good and (to an extent) 'bugger the consequences'.
Not a great position from which to persuade others......
How do you predict the future?
I could live either with being part of the EEA, or having some bespoke arrangement. Both seem preferable to what we have at present, let alone further integration.
The Clash gave us their prediction years ago
If we go there will be trouble An' if we stay it will be double
Interesting to see the betting. On August 7th when Mike singing the praises of a lady republican long forgotten I posted this;
"from the clips of the debate I've seen Senator Rubio struck me as the most impressive and Senator Cruz the least. Having a history of getting US elections wrong I now expect the next President of the United States to be Senator Ted Cruz."
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ...
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for Corbyn
I'm going to frame your comment for posterity as a fine example of a long distance expect who views the American election through the prism of British politics
Trump likely will win NH , but Rubio will come second and THAT will be the real story out of NH ...the unification of the Establishment !..Rubio will also win Nevada !
Again, rubbish, the GOP establishment tried to thrust Nelson Rockefeller on the GOP base in 1964, they failed abysmally and the base nominated Barry Goldwater. The latest poll has Rubio trailing Trump badly in Nevada and the continued presence of Ted Cruz in the race will keep opposition to Trump divided, once Trump wins South Carolina then Rubio's campaign is over, Bill Clinton won South Carolina after he got second in New Hampshire and Cruz is more likely to win there than Rubio
If Trump is the candidate he will get a similar result to Goldwater.
You offering odds on that? I'll take evens that he makes it to three figures in the Electoral College. Bet void if he's not nominated.
I'd like to think a bit more about that suggested turnout figure. It's the third major election in just over 18 months. Might the Scots start to suffer from ballot fatigue?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Strong parallels with the comments on the inevitability of Ed Miliband being PM with most seats which were a daily occurrence 12 months ago due to "polling". Saddiq Khorbyn isn't in the same postcode as the bucket of manure that is coming - yet alone had it tipped over his head.
Interesting to see the betting. On August 7th when Mike singing the praises of a lady republican long forgotten I posted this;
"from the clips of the debate I've seen Senator Rubio struck me as the most impressive and Senator Cruz the least. Having a history of getting US elections wrong I now expect the next President of the United States to be Senator Ted Cruz."
Have you got him at 50/1 by any chance?
I did tip Cruz for the nomination back in October when he was 20/1, as well as Trump at 5/1.
Christopher Hope Sadly for commuters in Westminster @DPJHodges had to wear shorts for his "streak" or he could have been arrested https://t.co/W8MjCpRp9N
He could at least have worn a comedy thong.
And if he had worn a Nigel Farage mask, there would have been the comedy gold of police investigating Nigel for streaking. That would do wonders for his "victim complex" after the Brussels equivalent of Kwik-Fit tried to, er, assassinate him...
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
In as much as Labour is a London Party, London is a Labour city - and the Tories need an exceptional candidate (like a Boris) to win it - what possessed them to think Goldsmith had that 'star quality' is beyond me.....
While I think Khan is ahead, it's far from being a certainty. We shouldn't confuse London Labour activists with London Labour voters. The allegiance of the latter group is a lot softer than that of the former. A lot will depend on what happens in the immediate run-up to May, but I see no prospect of the party coming to its senses before then.
That said, Khan is quite adept at avoiding being identified with the more lunatic statements of Corbyn and McDonnell. And he'll probably be able to suggest enough distance between himself and them to prevent himself from being too damaged by the Corbynite chaos.
Khan swam to victory in Corbyn's wake but when the Corbyn ship sinks he will be dragged down in its vortex ....we will have another 4 months of Corbyn's antics before the vote ;furthermore , the Blairites will happily sacrifice Khan in the hope of toppling Corbyn from his perch !
I expect to see a rerun of the last G E insomuch that a certain amount of Labour supporters will tell the pollsters they are voting Labour out of party loyalty but will either stay at home or actually vote for Zac
Furthermore , in a recent poll last year 31% of Londoners claimed they were uncomfortable voting for a Muslim (they were the ones who actually admitted it )and that was before the Paris massacre
Khan is by far the best campaigner ; he is a devious and cunning little fox , but Lynton Crosby may well turn out to be a foxcatcher !
One day we will all wake up and realise this last few months has just been a bad dream. Labour are so fantastically awful, it cannot really be happening.. can it...
It will get more awful yet for Labour when not only political obsessives are the ones paying attention, but Joe Public casts an eye over Labour.
Can you imagine what this lot are going to come up with as a Manifesto? Hur hur hur....
Rubio has very high favourables among women in NH by a ratio of 1:2
Trump polls less than Bernie Sanders ; he only looks like a winner because the establishment have not yet picked their candidate ; furthermore , Trump already has maximum exposure as everyone in the US already knows who Trump is ...he has already hit his ceiling , while Rubio is still coming into focus , but the more that folks see of Rubio the more they like him ...he is the obvious winner to folks who actually know how to read between the lines !
The reason why Trump can get away with saying outrageous things is because all sensible voters realize he can never be president ...he is in fact just a cheerleader , a rodeo clown and court jester ! He is primarily an entertainer where crowds can live vicariously through him , unrestrained by politeness and political correctness
Many of the women there will vote for Hillary though Sanders may win the Democratic primary in NH. Rubio has to win one of Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina in February or his race is over, at the moment he trails in all of them. Most sensible voters do not see a Marxist Tramp like Corbyn as a future PM but he still became Labour leader
Rubio doesn't have to win Iowa , N H or South Carolina ...he only needs to come third in Iowa , but ahead of any other Establishment candidate
He only needs to come second in N H just so long as he is only beaten by a ''reality TV '' star ....second place is a defacto victory for Rubio
Rubio doesn't have to win S C , but he does have to win the Nevada Caucus !
Bill Clinton didn't win any of the first 4 primaries ; in fact he only won one out of the first eleven , but apparently Rubio must win one of the first 3 or die ?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Strong parallels with the comments on the inevitability of Ed Miliband being PM with most seats which were a daily occurrence 12 months ago due to "polling". Saddiq Khorbyn isn't in the same postcode as the bucket of manure that is coming - yet alone had it tipped over his head.
You'd think, given I was one of the most tiresome of the 'Ed M will win, look at the polling, it cannot all be wrong' brigade, I'd have learned by lesson abou being definitive. Apparently not.
If you were female, would you rather be molested/raped or hear that someone has posted a racist comments online? Answer honestly.
You may have more knowledge of what women think than me, but I 'honestly' would try not to make sweeping assumptions about what someone of a different gender in a different country in a set of circumstances of which I have no experience might feel. On the whole I think it would be better if molestation, rape and racist online comments didn't exist, but I'm not a naive f***ing fool, so have no expectations in that regard.
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Strong parallels with the comments on the inevitability of Ed Miliband being PM with most seats which were a daily occurrence 12 months ago due to "polling". Saddiq Khorbyn isn't in the same postcode as the bucket of manure that is coming - yet alone had it tipped over his head.
You'd think, given I was one of the most tiresome of the 'Ed M will win, look at the polling, it cannot all be wrong' brigade, I'd have learned by lesson abou being definitive. Apparently not.
Add in a Mossad/CIA/ MI7 false flag attack on London in the run up and he's toast...
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
a) polling is cobblers
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
FTSE 100 still falling. Now down 155 points or 2.56%
Flirting with a 3-year low at the moment. Oil still heading south too. And let's not look at the Chinese credit bubble.
Where's Hunchman these days? Could have sworn that he was predicting the world would end last Autumn, and we'd be fighting over half eaten potatoes by now.
You re fully entitled to your opinion, but as an old git, I hold to the old-fashioned "Sticks and Stones" axiom. What some loon on a website writes is of almost supreme indifference to me.
What next? Writing nasty things is the same as murder? Let's equate Polly Toynbee and Genghis Khan. Hitler was a nice man but his greatest crime was writing Mein Kampf?
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
Could be MoE or it could be that he's campaigning more effectively at the moment.
A Sadiq victory might be a bit Phyrric for Labour. Corbyn really needs to take something out of May. Scottish Labour may well go backwards, again; Welsh Labour will almost certainly lose seats too, reducing them to minority status; the English council elections are likely to produce net losses for Labour and gains for the Tories, UKIP and LDs; the PCC elections may not be any better. The one potential saving grace is London. If Sadiq can win that back then Corbyn has a major piece of good news to point to. If not, it will look bleak indeed and the vultures will circle anew.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I agree and if he fails again then the next Tory PM should fire him
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
a) polling is cobblers
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
FTSE 100 still falling. Now down 155 points or 2.56%
Flirting with a 3-year low at the moment. Oil still heading south too. And let's not look at the Chinese credit bubble.
2016 is going to be an 'interesting' year - in the Chinese proverb sense. All sorts of bubbles will inevitably come unstuck. China's debt fueled growth is petering out and its currency, stock market and banking system are going to get hammered. A giant Greece. Petrokleptocracies are going to go under. The global economy is going to be very weak and this will be reflected in corporate profits and falling stock markets. Those in debt will suffer. 2008 is already 8 years away in the rearview mirror and the next recession is now overdue. The Eurozone and its shite banking system is not ready for it.Few are ready.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
Mr. Flightpath, but don't lower prices cause lower inflation, which is already (or was, I've not been paying attention) a serious issue for Japan?
Lower prices / deflation is a serious issue if it prompts excess saving and deters necessary spending and investment, leading to structural deflation; it's less of a problem if it's prompted by a one-off event (which will drop out of the figures in due course anyway) and doesn't much change spending and investment patterns - though it can still cause some difficulties as certain prices, such as wages, are very sticky on the downside which may produce imbalances and unemployment.
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
a) polling is cobblers
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
You hate liberalism, then?
You've got to give me more to work on than that.
What do you mean? Zac is a liberalist and I don't like Zac so I hate liberalism?
FTSE 100 still falling. Now down 155 points or 2.56%
Flirting with a 3-year low at the moment. Oil still heading south too. And let's not look at the Chinese credit bubble.
2016 is going to be an 'interesting' year - in the Chinese proverb sense. All sorts of bubbles will inevitably come unstuck. China's debt fueled growth is petering out and its currency, stock market and banking system are going to get hammered. A giant Greece. Petrokleptocracies are going to go under. The global economy is going to be very weak and this will be reflected in corporate profits and falling stock markets. Those in debt will suffer. 2008 is already 8 years away in the rearview mirror and the next recession is now overdue. The Eurozone and its shite banking system is not ready for it.Few are ready.
Presumably Russian economy is really struggling, given renewal of sanctions, dreadful commodities prices and the costs of Syria war.
It will of course all be about the undecideds, the currently unengaged, and who can make those who don't care vote for their side.
I would say almost nobody on here is representative of these kind of voters. Southam Obsever is surely right when he says that for Leave to win they need to present a coherent vision of what people are voting for. Not what they are voting against.
Leave need to understand that currently a vague dislike of the EU is very far from the same as wanting to leave and in doing so take a leap into the unknown. The question on the ballot is not "do you think the EU is wonderful" which would no doubt fall miles short of a majority. It is much more significant and daunting a choice than that. Staying in will be the lesser of two evils for a decisive number of people as it stands now IMHO.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I do recognise managing against global trends is very difficult and meeting targets precisely may not be possible or, as you suggest, even desirable anymore. But that latitude only stretches so far.
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Where on earth are you getting this assumption from?
Lets examine Trump.
He has built a very large company and become very rich, he has had best selling books, he has had a top rated telly show, he has had a succession of trophy wives and has well adjusted kids* he has an extremely high IQ of 160+.
He has an ego (just like everyone else).
His ego may well be very large but then he has achieved significant things.
He understands he COULD become the next president.
He has achieved everything else and this would cement his place in history.
And you think he is only going through the motions.
* Trump doesn't agree with corporal punishment and his kids all appear decent and well adjusted. Compare and contrast with Bush who does agree with corporal punishment and who has three feckless wasters.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I agree and if he fails again then the next Tory PM should fire him
This is a purist view. Any sensible chancellor SHOULD apply the principles of sound money and move to a surplus ASAP. But the politics doesn't work. Look at the explosion cutting tax credits caused. Osborne is criticised for not cutting the deficit as fast as possible. What he is doing is cutting it as fast as is politically possible - a different thing.
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
a) polling is cobblers
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
You hate liberalism, then?
You've got to give me more to work on than that.
What do you mean? Zac is a liberalist and I don't like Zac so I hate liberalism?
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I do recognise managing against global trends is very difficult and meeting targets precisely may not be possible or, as you suggest, even desirable anymore. But that latitude only stretches so far.
Being 100 % out is probably quite a bit of latitude.
That said, I think all governments should be aiming to bring it down to an acceptable level. External events will affect things, sure.
The arguments in 2009 that running a deficit of 10 % + was perfectly fine do remain utterly ludicrous.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I agree and if he fails again then the next Tory PM should fire him
This is a purist view. Any sensible chancellor SHOULD apply the principles of sound money and move to a surplus ASAP. But the politics doesn't work. Look at the explosion cutting tax credits caused. Osborne is criticised for not cutting the deficit as fast as possible. What he is doing is cutting it as fast as is politically possible - a different thing.
Sorry, is there an election this year, or next year, or the year after?
FTSE 100 still falling. Now down 155 points or 2.56%
Flirting with a 3-year low at the moment. Oil still heading south too. And let's not look at the Chinese credit bubble.
2016 is going to be an 'interesting' year - in the Chinese proverb sense. All sorts of bubbles will inevitably come unstuck. China's debt fueled growth is petering out and its currency, stock market and banking system are going to get hammered. A giant Greece. Petrokleptocracies are going to go under. The global economy is going to be very weak and this will be reflected in corporate profits and falling stock markets. Those in debt will suffer. 2008 is already 8 years away in the rearview mirror and the next recession is now overdue. The Eurozone and its shite banking system is not ready for it.Few are ready.
Presumably Russian economy is really struggling, given renewal of sanctions, dreadful commodities prices and the costs of Syria war.
Will that be enough to get rid of Vlad?
Russia's economy is in deep deep doodoo. I have no idea if that weakens Vlad. It may empower him to become even more despotic. Russia simply has no tradition of open, free society, or trust based economy, or non 'strong man' politics or genuine democracy and free markets. They wasted utterly the opportunity that the fall of communism offered to become a normal western nation. What we all learned is that they are not a normal western nation. They're a bunch of drunk, bullying wannabees whose reach exceeds their capacity, whose dreams are at odds with their reality.
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Where on earth are you getting this assumption from?
Lets examine Trump.
He has built a very large company and become very rich, he has had best selling books, he has had a top rated telly show, he has had a succession of trophy wives and has well adjusted kids* he has an extremely high IQ of 160+.
He has an ego (just like everyone else).
His ego may well be very large but then he has achieved significant things.
He understands he COULD become the next president.
He has achieved everything else and this would cement his place in history.
And you think he is only going through the motions.
* Trump doesn't agree with corporal punishment and his kids all appear decent and well adjusted. Compare and contrast with Bush who does agree with corporal punishment and who has three feckless wasters.
Evidence of his IQ, please. Most successful entrepreneurs have IQs in the 120s.
You know Labour's in dire straits when even the most ardent champion in the commentariat give up expecting Labour success and start praying for Tory implosion.
Rubio has very high favourables among women in NH by a ratio of 1:2
Trump polls less than Bernie Sanders ; he only looks like a winner because the establishment have not yet picked their candidate ; furthermore , Trump already has maximum exposure as everyone in the US already knows who Trump is ...he has already hit his ceiling , while Rubio is still coming into focus , but the more that folks see of Rubio the more they like him ...he is the obvious winner to folks who actually know how to read between the lines !
The reason why Trump can get away with saying outrageous things is because all sensible voters realize he can never be president ...he is in fact just a cheerleader , a rodeo clown and court jester ! He is primarily an entertainer where crowds can live vicariously through him , unrestrained by politeness and political correctness
You are going to look like a right thicko if Trump becomes the next president.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
What makes you think Corbyn's gang can do better? Economic disaster would follow.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I agree and if he fails again then the next Tory PM should fire him
This is a purist view. Any sensible chancellor SHOULD apply the principles of sound money and move to a surplus ASAP. But the politics doesn't work. Look at the explosion cutting tax credits caused. Osborne is criticised for not cutting the deficit as fast as possible. What he is doing is cutting it as fast as is politically possible - a different thing.
Sorry, is there an election this year, or next year, or the year after?
"If I had just met her today I wouldn't want to marry her. But we are where we are. The relationship isn't great, but not so bad as to want a divorce. Just think of all the hassle it would cause. We'll just have to keep rubbing along together as best we can."
I'm puzzled by Saqid pulling ahead so much. What's he doing that's generated that change?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
a) polling is cobblers
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
You hate liberalism, then?
You've got to give me more to work on than that.
What do you mean? Zac is a liberalist and I don't like Zac so I hate liberalism?
Help me here.
I had a look at Bailey's Wikipedia article.
Yes well you spotted one half of that entry. Here is the balance of the quote, first used in a DT interview, where the DT puts liberalism in quotation marks and allows Shaun to explain what he means:
"The key wickedness that the Government has perpetrated is the idea that government can pay for everything. If you continually give people things and ask for nothing back you rob them of their will. People have to be involved in their own redemption. There are people sitting at home now who don't work because it's not worth their while to do it under the benefits system. That's wrong."
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
Would you rather the target met and the economy tanked? The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps'' '' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
I simply do not buy his explanations that his total failure to meet his targets is down to global events outside his control (if you use that as an explanation for failing all the time, you cannot take credit for upturns as that will presumably be based on the same measure) - even though you cannot predict with certainty what global ups and downs will occur, you know some will occur, and so I certainly gave Osborne and Cameron benefit of the doubt about slowing things down, being more cautious, to the tune of a few years. But if he cannot manage it in 10 bloody years, then his original claim to be able to do it in five, knowing there are always some pitfalls you cannot predict coming, was utter cobblers, and near to a lie.
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
I agree and if he fails again then the next Tory PM should fire him
This is a purist view. Any sensible chancellor SHOULD apply the principles of sound money and move to a surplus ASAP. But the politics doesn't work. Look at the explosion cutting tax credits caused. Osborne is criticised for not cutting the deficit as fast as possible. What he is doing is cutting it as fast as is politically possible - a different thing.
Sorry, is there an election this year, or next year, or the year after?
No - an EU referendum.
In what way does that stop Osborne doing his ******* job?
....if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
It makes Osborne's as Tory party leader more difficult to imagine (a position I already struggle with). I don't accept it affects the Tory v Labour position - not whilst ever Corbyn and his cronies populate the top of his party. And not whilst ever we have record levels of employment.
One thing Osborne has done is to make ridiculous the Labour chant that the Tories destroy jobs. It is one of the main reasons why Labour's offering on the economy in May 2015 was so rubbish. When Labour doesn't have the threat of "unemployment" in its weaponry against the Tories, it is truly fecked. By design or happy circumstance, Osborne gets credit for that.
"If I had just met her today I wouldn't want to marry her. But we are where we are. The relationship isn't great, but not so bad as to want a divorce. Just think of all the hassle it would cause. We'll just have to keep rubbing along together as best we can."
That's why, regrettably, I think Remain will win.
Always keep a hold of nurse For fear of meeting someone worse...
FTSE 100 still falling. Now down 155 points or 2.56%
Flirting with a 3-year low at the moment. Oil still heading south too. And let's not look at the Chinese credit bubble.
2016 is going to be an 'interesting' year - in the Chinese proverb sense. All sorts of bubbles will inevitably come unstuck. China's debt fueled growth is petering out and its currency, stock market and banking system are going to get hammered. A giant Greece. Petrokleptocracies are going to go under. The global economy is going to be very weak and this will be reflected in corporate profits and falling stock markets. Those in debt will suffer. 2008 is already 8 years away in the rearview mirror and the next recession is now overdue. The Eurozone and its shite banking system is not ready for it.Few are ready.
Presumably Russian economy is really struggling, given renewal of sanctions, dreadful commodities prices and the costs of Syria war.
Will that be enough to get rid of Vlad?
No, but he will be a Bear with a headache. Will that make him more or less adventurous in Ukraine? Hard to say - there are political points to both ramping up and pulling back but he needs to either get on or get out.
You know Labour's in dire straits when even the most ardent champion in the commentariat give up expecting Labour success and start praying for Tory implosion.
And start posting cat videos as a distraction to a disastrous reshuffle....
"If I had just met her today I wouldn't want to marry her. But we are where we are. The relationship isn't great, but not so bad as to want a divorce. Just think of all the hassle it would cause. We'll just have to keep rubbing along together as best we can."
That's why, regrettably, I think Remain will win.
Always keep a hold of nurse For fear of meeting someone worse...
Unless nurse is turning into a control freak, before your very eyes....
In what way does that stop Osborne doing his ******* job?
Really? Really? He can't swing the axe and seek electoral validation at the same time. I'm 100% with you on what he should do (I'm a firm BOO'er myself). I'd cut hard now and damn the electoral consequences while Corbyn is LOTO. But I do recognise that Ozzy and Dave are committed to Remain. Pissing off the electorate to a level of 'tax credits x 10' is not the way to go in a crucial electoral year. Welcome to Realpolitik.
Rubio has very high favourables among women in NH by a ratio of 1:2
Trump polls less than Bernie Sanders ; he only looks like a winner because the establishment have not yet picked their candidate ; furthermore , Trump already has maximum exposure as everyone in the US already knows who Trump is ...he has already hit his ceiling , while Rubio is still coming into focus , but the more that folks see of Rubio the more they like him ...he is the obvious winner to folks who actually know how to read between the lines !
The reason why Trump can get away with saying outrageous things is because all sensible voters realize he can never be president ...he is in fact just a cheerleader , a rodeo clown and court jester ! He is primarily an entertainer where crowds can live vicariously through him , unrestrained by politeness and political correctness
You are going to look like a right thicko if Trump becomes the next president.
He already looks a right thicko. He has gone from predicting that Trump would pull out before Iowa (on the basis that Trump saw himself as a winner and couldn't bear to lose the nomination, therefore to avoid losing would have to withdraw before the race started), to predicting that he will win NH.
You know Labour's in dire straits when even the most ardent champion in the commentariat give up expecting Labour success and start praying for Tory implosion.
You re fully entitled to your opinion, but as an old git, I hold to the old-fashioned "Sticks and Stones" axiom. What some loon on a website writes is of almost supreme indifference to me.
What next? Writing nasty things is the same as murder? Let's equate Polly Toynbee and Genghis Khan. Hitler was a nice man but his greatest crime was writing Mein Kampf?
Thanks for allowing me an opinion.
We're back to categorisation. Are wolf whistles and 'want a bit of this luv' molestation? Is an online exhortation to revenge rape 'Muslim bitches' just sticks & stones?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
Where on earth are you getting this assumption from?
Lets examine Trump.
He has built a very large company and become very rich, he has had best selling books, he has had a top rated telly show, he has had a succession of trophy wives and has well adjusted kids* he has an extremely high IQ of 160+.
He has an ego (just like everyone else).
His ego may well be very large but then he has achieved significant things.
He understands he COULD become the next president.
He has achieved everything else and this would cement his place in history.
And you think he is only going through the motions.
* Trump doesn't agree with corporal punishment and his kids all appear decent and well adjusted. Compare and contrast with Bush who does agree with corporal punishment and who has three feckless wasters.
Evidence of his IQ, please. Most successful entrepreneurs have IQs in the 120s.
Trumps IQ can be deduced from his SAT score.
I agree about most successful entreprenuers, very clever people tend to do more "intellectual" things which makes Trump a very interesting outlier.
Re Hodges, at least he kept to his promise, unlike an actress who promised to emigrate if Boris became Mayor of London.
Or like our own dear malcolmg, who could not face living in a nation of 'losers'.......
Lying again Vance , you really are a nasty piece of work. I am managing quite well thanks and your exaggerated lies about what I supposedly said are particularly repugnant even for a slimeball like yourself.
"If I had just met her today I wouldn't want to marry her. But we are where we are. The relationship isn't great, but not so bad as to want a divorce. Just think of all the hassle it would cause. We'll just have to keep rubbing along together as best we can."
That's why, regrettably, I think Remain will win.
When I met her 40 years ago she was pictured just like Anne of Cleves by Holbein - and hidden under a veil.
I wouldn't place too much stock in IQ equating to intelligence. It's an interesting, even useful, measure, but intelligence it is not.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, I think things will settle down. The fewer dissenters Corbyn has in Cabinet, the less dissent with which he must contend.
Labour will grumble but they've shown they won't do anything (well, secondary shadows have resigned, but Eagle has agreed to be demoted and Benn may or may not have negotiated hard over the colour scheme of the zips on his gimp suit - we shall see if he has indeed been muzzled).
You re fully entitled to your opinion, but as an old git, I hold to the old-fashioned "Sticks and Stones" axiom. What some loon on a website writes is of almost supreme indifference to me.
What next? Writing nasty things is the same as murder? Let's equate Polly Toynbee and Genghis Khan. Hitler was a nice man but his greatest crime was writing Mein Kampf?
Thanks for allowing me an opinion.
We're back to categorisation. Are wolf whistles and 'want a bit of this luv' molestation? Is an online exhortation to revenge rape 'Muslim bitches' just sticks & stones?
Do you actually not know the difference between rude comments and physical gropping that leaves bruises on breasts and buttocks?
That does look to be a weak link in the Leave case.
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
If pledging for the EEA won the referendum for Leave I would take it like a shot.
Priority 101 has to be getting out of the EU now or we're potentially stuck for decades. The EEA is a safe holding position whilst we then assess what we want our long-term relationship to be.
Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,
What makes you think Corbyn's gang can do better? Economic disaster would follow.
It was merely a flippant remark. I highly doubt I would vote for Corbynite Labour. But I don't see why I should vote or tacitly support the other lot if they fail.
I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
I am meeting Zac Goldsmith today for a chat. Anybody got any questions or points of view on his Mayoral strategy. What should he do? He will have his own views, clearly, but I wonder if we can have a politicalbetting.com strategy to win the London Mayoralty.
Comments
It isn't 'mood music' though, is it? It's more like an alarm bell and it has been ringing consistently for many years.
That said, Khan is quite adept at avoiding being identified with the more lunatic statements of Corbyn and McDonnell. And he'll probably be able to suggest enough distance between himself and them to prevent himself from being too damaged by the Corbynite chaos.
Global PMI dips in Dec to signal weakest quarterly growth for a year led by new EM downturn https://t.co/6UXQVrMKca https://t.co/G6A5TqA6by
That said, at least a couple of women were raped. We know that, as well as the many more robbed/groped. If people break the law online (such as when they encouraged looting in 2011 over here) that should be dealt with, but I don't think most people, here or in Germany, would agree that a racist, moronic comment online can be considered as bad as a horde of rapists, molesters and thieves menacing hundreds of women.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Labour MP Richard Burgon: “It amazes me that the media were content to hang around in Jeremy Corbyn’s stairwell for eight hours.” @bbc5live
Got me thinking. We are indeed moving towards taxing sugar in fizzy drinks - one of the leading causes of obesity. The HMRC has been going after the tax due from - ahem - 'immoral earnings'. On the 'illegal' front I note that the war on drugs has been an abject failure and in even the rather puritan USA there are now many states with legalised marijuana production. Actually some of these pot companies are now floating on the stock market and generating significant profits AND TAXES.
So if George Osborne is worrying about the money maybe one thing he could push for would be for the UK to go down the route of the USA and legalise, regularise, regulate and tax marijuana. Be worth billions I reckon.
I could live either with being part of the EEA, or having some bespoke arrangement. Both seem preferable to what we have at present, let alone further integration.
I can only assume you're trolling.
No Keith Vaz!
And here was me hoping his august personage would be adorning the cavalcade of wit & beauty that grace the Labour Front Bench.....
Must be some other reason for this then:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/07/keith-vaz-twitter-social-media-facebook-vanish_n_8927220.html
Ralf Jaeger may be a little unfair to women.
If you were female, would you rather be molested/raped or hear that someone has posted a racist comments online? Answer honestly.
"from the clips of the debate I've seen Senator Rubio struck me as the most impressive and Senator Cruz the least. Having a history of getting US elections wildly wrong I now expect the next President of the United States to be Senator Ted Cruz."
If we go there will be trouble
An' if we stay it will be double
Sums up the choices
Admittedly, that was for the 2012 election.
What a farce!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/everyone-loves-ruth-davidson-no-one-will-vote-for-her/
I'd like to think a bit more about that suggested turnout figure. It's the third major election in just over 18 months. Might the Scots start to suffer from ballot fatigue?
yet....
And if he had worn a Nigel Farage mask, there would have been the comedy gold of police investigating Nigel for streaking. That would do wonders for his "victim complex" after the Brussels equivalent of Kwik-Fit tried to, er, assassinate him...
I expect to see a rerun of the last G E insomuch that a certain amount of Labour supporters will tell the pollsters they are voting Labour out of party loyalty but will either stay at home or actually vote for Zac
Furthermore , in a recent poll last year 31% of Londoners claimed they were uncomfortable voting for a Muslim (they were the ones who actually admitted it )and that was before the Paris massacre
Khan is by far the best campaigner ; he is a devious and cunning little fox , but Lynton Crosby may well turn out to be a foxcatcher !
Guess which country is - by quite some margin - most often outvoted in the EU? https://t.co/rWhcwYflpR
It will get more awful yet for Labour when not only political obsessives are the ones paying attention, but Joe Public casts an eye over Labour.
Can you imagine what this lot are going to come up with as a Manifesto? Hur hur hur....
He only needs to come second in N H just so long as he is only beaten by a ''reality TV '' star ....second place is a defacto victory for Rubio
Rubio doesn't have to win S C , but he does have to win the Nevada Caucus !
Bill Clinton didn't win any of the first 4 primaries ; in fact he only won one out of the first eleven , but apparently Rubio must win one of the first 3 or die ?
Or is it just polling cobblers?
I 'honestly' would try not to make sweeping assumptions about what someone of a different gender in a different country in a set of circumstances of which I have no experience might feel.
On the whole I think it would be better if molestation, rape and racist online comments didn't exist, but I'm not a naive f***ing fool, so have no expectations in that regard.
Given his embarrassment when his mother was on screen baring all, perhaps he didn't wish to reciprocate.
Current Probability of possible outcomes #UKGE2020 by Electoral Calculus
CON MAJ 72%
LAB MAJ 1%
Link2data
https://t.co/t2zbEESN2t
b) I can't get enthused or behind Zac (yet, maybe ever). All I see is an entitled posho deciding that this is his latest plaything. Now of course Boris fits a lot of that but, as they say, Boris is Boris. I just wish Cons had someone who was more invested, more genuinely a Londoner (I'm sure Zac is a born and bred Londoner..).
I would have worked all day and night and then voted for Shaun Bailey, for example, in a heartbeat.
The tone of Osborne's remarks is in fact to justify his measures .... ''It is precisely because we live in an uncertain world. It is precisely because we have not abolished boom and bust as a nation, that you need to take these steps, difficult steps''
'' we have got to go on making the difficult decisions, precisely so that Britain can continue to enjoy the low unemployment and the rising wages that we see at the moment''
Low commodity prices spell trouble for those countries that rely on them, but for say Japan, the low oil price is a yahoo moment
You re fully entitled to your opinion, but as an old git, I hold to the old-fashioned "Sticks and Stones" axiom. What some loon on a website writes is of almost supreme indifference to me.
What next? Writing nasty things is the same as murder? Let's equate Polly Toynbee and Genghis Khan. Hitler was a nice man but his greatest crime was writing Mein Kampf?
Now, suggesting I'd vote for Corbyn was being flippant, I really do not like the man's principles in a lot of areas, but if Osborne cannot meet his own self appointed targets - which he has chosen to make all important - despite giving himself an extra 5 years, then he and his party hardly deserve my consideration either.
A Sadiq victory might be a bit Phyrric for Labour. Corbyn really needs to take something out of May. Scottish Labour may well go backwards, again; Welsh Labour will almost certainly lose seats too, reducing them to minority status; the English council elections are likely to produce net losses for Labour and gains for the Tories, UKIP and LDs; the PCC elections may not be any better. The one potential saving grace is London. If Sadiq can win that back then Corbyn has a major piece of good news to point to. If not, it will look bleak indeed and the vultures will circle anew.
What do you mean? Zac is a liberalist and I don't like Zac so I hate liberalism?
Help me here.
Will that be enough to get rid of Vlad?
It will of course all be about the undecideds, the currently unengaged, and who can make those who don't care vote for their side.
I would say almost nobody on here is representative of these kind of voters. Southam Obsever is surely right when he says that for Leave to win they need to present a coherent vision of what people are voting for. Not what they are voting against.
Leave need to understand that currently a vague dislike of the EU is very far from the same as wanting to leave and in doing so take a leap into the unknown. The question on the ballot is not "do you think the EU is wonderful" which would no doubt fall miles short of a majority. It is much more significant and daunting a choice than that. Staying in will be the lesser of two evils for a decisive number of people as it stands now IMHO.
Lets examine Trump.
He has built a very large company and become very rich,
he has had best selling books,
he has had a top rated telly show,
he has had a succession of trophy wives and has well adjusted kids*
he has an extremely high IQ of 160+.
He has an ego (just like everyone else).
His ego may well be very large but then he has achieved significant things.
He understands he COULD become the next president.
He has achieved everything else and this would cement his place in history.
And you think he is only going through the motions.
* Trump doesn't agree with corporal punishment and his kids all appear decent and well adjusted. Compare and contrast with Bush who does agree with corporal punishment and who has three feckless wasters.
That said, I think all governments should be aiming to bring it down to an acceptable level. External events will affect things, sure.
The arguments in 2009 that running a deficit of 10 % + was perfectly fine do remain utterly ludicrous.
@JonCisBack – sensible and perceptive comments like that could get you banned.
While we’re on the subject of the EU…
Owen Jones: Let a year that began with Labour’s tribulations end with Tory chaos.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/07/labour-tory-chaos-david-cameron-divided-europe
You know Labour's in dire straits when even the most ardent champion in the commentariat give up expecting Labour success and start praying for Tory implosion.
"If I had just met her today I wouldn't want to marry her. But we are where we are.
The relationship isn't great, but not so bad as to want a divorce. Just think of all the hassle it would cause. We'll just have to keep rubbing along together as best we can."
That's why, regrettably, I think Remain will win.
"The key wickedness that the Government has perpetrated is the idea that government can pay for everything. If you continually give people things and ask for nothing back you rob them of their will. People have to be involved in their own redemption. There are people sitting at home now who don't work because it's not worth their while to do it under the benefits system. That's wrong."
Is that sentiment something you disagree with?
One thing Osborne has done is to make ridiculous the Labour chant that the Tories destroy jobs. It is one of the main reasons why Labour's offering on the economy in May 2015 was so rubbish. When Labour doesn't have the threat of "unemployment" in its weaponry against the Tories, it is truly fecked. By design or happy circumstance, Osborne gets credit for that.
For fear of meeting someone worse...
If ever there was displacement activity
We're back to categorisation. Are wolf whistles and 'want a bit of this luv' molestation? Is an online exhortation to revenge rape 'Muslim bitches' just sticks & stones?
A cat you say? - I thought it was a squirrel.
I agree about most successful entreprenuers, very clever people tend to do more "intellectual" things which makes Trump a very interesting outlier.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/12085058/McLaren-to-double-production-work-of-its-200mph-sports-cars.html
Think of everything that's happened in the last four months, then think about what might happen in the next four!
Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, I think things will settle down. The fewer dissenters Corbyn has in Cabinet, the less dissent with which he must contend.
Labour will grumble but they've shown they won't do anything (well, secondary shadows have resigned, but Eagle has agreed to be demoted and Benn may or may not have negotiated hard over the colour scheme of the zips on his gimp suit - we shall see if he has indeed been muzzled).
Priority 101 has to be getting out of the EU now or we're potentially stuck for decades. The EEA is a safe holding position whilst we then assess what we want our long-term relationship to be.
Good day to all.