Today we're discussing whether Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia, is right to say that being a racist tosser online is at least as bad as sexual assault.
I don't like Zac. I think he's a TINO and he's looking for another rich man's play thing. He's like Prince Charles.
He needs to talk to the aspirational voters, not just the soulmate recycling Twickers. What's he going to do to give them a more successful place to live and educate their kids. Take lessons from Boris and Cameron style.
I'm sick of his green hobby horses.
Thank you. I don't know what a TINO is but I will tell him he is one.
But the second preference of Waitrose shoppers and Indy readers could well determine who is Mayor.... (I'm assuming UKIP voters aren't going for Labour.)
Max a candidate will get in 1st round will be 40%. 2nd prefs will be crucial.
Dixie: Schools: Boast about new academies, UTCs and free schools opening across the city. Khan is against school choice Jobs: Boast about rapidly falling unemployment, the new living wage and the opportunities for apprenticeships Environment: Boast - It'll be cleaner under Zac Housing: Boast about Help to Buy, low interest rates, low council taxes - only a Conservative can deliver Taxes: Boast about low taxes. Livingstone put up precept every year - 300% over 8 years (or something like it) - Khan voted every year for higher council tax in Wandsworth London at the centre of the global economy: Boast about London's success as the driver of the British economy and its role at the centre of world trade, business and, yes, banking. Boast that whatever happens in the referendum, Zac the Mayor will ensure it stays there. Khan is a job destroying tax and spender... just watch the jobs disappear.
I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.
Sure, but I think that we might be misled into thinking that Trump's lead (assuming he remains in the lead) is bigger than it appears because of the fragmentation of the establishment vote. Both in terms of transfers of delegates from the early states, and later on as the big winner-takes-all states come into play, the eventual establishment leader might do better than looks likely early on.
Of course this assumes that Trump doesn't win the big winner-takes-all states. Basically the GOP establishment needs to whittle down the field PDQ.
I'd look at it the other way round. If Trump wins all four early states then he'll be practically unassailable, even if he's only polling around 25-30%. Chances are on that basis he'd also take a majority of Super Tuesday states too. That won't get him near the winning post in delegates but it will give him such massive momentum that he will undoubtedly suck up support from withdrawing candidates. The transfer of votes between professional candidates will be leaky.
And one reason for that is that there aren't many establishment candidates. Trump clearly isn't but Carson and Fiorina aren't politicians either, though one's campaign looks in terminal decline and the other practically dead. Cruz is Tea Party. Rubio is no centrist and his more liberal immigration stance is more to do with local factors than ideological ones. The 'establishment' candidate is Bush, and he's polling about 5% having already been considered and discarded by the electorate once.
That piece and Henry G Manson yesterday have got me thinking that Corbyn may not last that long after all. Yes, Labour has no history of ousting leaders but it has also never had a leader so extreme and inept.
Has it ever had a PLP so supine?
David Cameron openly mocking Hilary Benn and others for agreeing to sit in Jezza's shadow cabinet at PMQs, as they tacitly support his entire lunatic agenda.
The PM and his aides must have had so much fun yesterday morning writing jokes about Corbyn and Labour. PMQs is being played on 'easy' level at the moment.
That piece and Henry G Manson yesterday have got me thinking that Corbyn may not last that long after all. Yes, Labour has no history of ousting leaders but it has also never had a leader so extreme and inept.
Has it ever had a PLP so supine?
David Cameron openly mocking Hilary Benn and others for agreeing to sit in Jezza's shadow cabinet at PMQs, as they tacitly support his entire lunatic agenda.
The PM and his aides must have had so much fun yesterday morning writing jokes about Corbyn and Labour. PMQs is being played on 'easy' level at the moment.
Bet his Candy Crush scores are through the roof....
Today we're discussing whether Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia, is right to say that being a racist tosser online is at least as bad as sexual assault.
I wonder if Ralf Jaeger is prepared to test his theory with for instance, his daughter?
On the London mayoral election: don't underestimate Zac. He's a canny campaigner. His 2010 Richmond campaign was very smart and largely below the radar.
Didn`t he grossly ooverspend on his campaign exxpenses? And was then let off, by the establishment?
I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.
Yes, that's exactly right. After NH we should see a shake-out of the mainstream (Bush, Kasich, Rubio, etc.) candidates. I think Cruz will stay in regardless of NH, but if he doesn't win South Carolina, up next, he could be in trouble - in fact SC may well prove a watershed for Trump too,
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow
Interesting:
Lab 2010 GE: 1.246m votes - 2012 Mayor 890k = 71.5% retention Con 2010 GE: 1.175m votes - 2012 Mayor 972k = 82.7% retention
French President Francois Hollande has promised 5,000 extra police posts in an "unprecedented" strengthening of French security, a year after the attack on Charlie Hebdo magazine by jihadists. Soon after he spoke, Paris police shot and killed a suspect who allegedly tried to break into a police station.
I expect to hear JJ on the media exclaiming disgust at the police. They should have asked his gentleman to go for a nice goat's milk latte to discuss his issues.
Corbyn and McDonnell would probably give him a Shadow Cabinet post, and a hug.
... That won't get him near the winning post in delegates but it will give him such massive momentum that he will undoubtedly suck up support from withdrawing candidates. ...
That is the $64K question. The alternative possibility is that he's such a Marmite candidate that whoever emerges as second to him sucks up the support from the drop-outs. The betting conundrum is essentially which of the two scenarios is going to play out.
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow
Interesting:
Lab 2010 GE: 1.246m votes - 2012 Mayor 890k = 71.5% retention Con 2010 GE: 1.175m votes - 2012 Mayor 972k = 82.7% retention
If you apply 2015 GE figures at same retention, would would outcome be?
If you look at Assembly Member voting patterns they are closer to GE patterns. IE, Mayor's election is to some extent a vacuum.
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow
Interesting:
Lab 2010 GE: 1.246m votes - 2012 Mayor 890k = 71.5% retention Con 2010 GE: 1.175m votes - 2012 Mayor 972k = 82.7% retention
If you apply 2015 GE figures at same retention, would would outcome be?
If you look at Assembly Member voting patterns they are closer to GE patterns. IE, Mayor's election is to some extent a vacuum.
Labour 1.105m Con 1.019m
A gap of about 90k before UKIP, LD, Green second preferences.
In 2012, the economy was in a pickle and Miliband was doing as well as he ever was at any point in the parliament.
Contrast that to the current economy and Corbyn. General sentiment favours the Tories presently.
I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.
Yes, that's exactly right. After NH we should see a shake-out of the mainstream (Bush, Kasich, Rubio, etc.) candidates. I think Cruz will stay in regardless of NH, but if he doesn't win South Carolina, up next, he could be in trouble - in fact SC may well prove a watershed for Trump too,
Mr Dixie, I don;t know if this has been said, but if there's one thing all Londoners (of whatever political hue) cannot abide it is a good politically motivated tube strike.
If Goldsmith can paint himself as firmly on the side of the commuter and hang the RMT albatross around Khan's neck, that will help him.
It would have more impact if Khan were painted not as Corbyn's puppet, but as Len's.
... That won't get him near the winning post in delegates but it will give him such massive momentum that he will undoubtedly suck up support from withdrawing candidates. ...
That is the $64K question. The alternative possibility is that he's such a Marmite candidate that whoever emerges as second to him sucks up the support from the drop-outs. The betting conundrum is essentially which of the two scenarios is going to play out.
The other conundrum is which of the Establishment candidates (if any) benefits. Kasich and Christie, for instance, are polling quite well in the state polls considering they can barely be sighted in the nationals.
Say what you like, Khan is a divisive candidate. His plans for affirmative action prove it. Goldmsmith should proclaim he stands for ALL Londoners, and that posts will be doled out on one basis and one basis alone. Merit.
As a point of reference regarding the London Mayoral contest:
London Votes - 2015
Labour 1.545m (43.7%) Tory 1.233m (34.9%) UKIP 0.287m (8.1%) Lib Dems 0.273m (7.7%) Green 0.172m (4.9%)
UKIP supporters are highly unlikely to back Khan, which leaves the main two fairly closely matched. It's the LD/Greens who hold the balance.
If they vote 2nd pref they will mostly go Khan (London Greens are IMO generally left-wingers more than they're environmentalists) but for UKIP and Greens it's a mistake to assume that they will all give a second preference: lots of them feel that everyone stinks except their chosen party. LibDems are more used to multiple choices.
But I agree that it will come down to turnout and the impact of the change in registration.
As for McBride, if he wants a fight he can have one, and his gang will lose - he was very dependent on claiming leadership backing (with debatable authority), and the membership will see off any challenge like that. But I don't think that most Labour MPs think it's going to be time to rock any more boats before May.
To re-ask an earlier question, if Trump does gain the nomination, is Rubio a good fit for running mate and does anyone have any idea as to whether either he or Trump would go with it (and if not, who Trump should go for)?
A sensible plan on the face of it. Would be even more sensible to stop the subsidised razing of the hillsides by grouse moors (ludicrous amounts of subsidies spent) and farmers (more understandable so trickier to work out the logistics of) and get some tree cover back up there as well.
On an information point, the full phrase is "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me."
I believe there is a lot of difference between being angry and writing silly things, and carrying out an act of violence. Otherwise we'd have a jail in every street.
Ralf may think that it's more important to investigate some spotty seventeen-year-old who posts on-line than stop rape and sexual assault taking place in the middle of his city.
Perhaps some of the Rotherham officials had the same opinion. I prefer to think Ralf is trying to muddy the waters and deflect attention from his own inadequacies.
Both are wrong. The actions in Germany are criminal in two ways the harassment and molestation (1) were the shield for organised robbery (2). There is a long history of organised robbery at this place at that time. The German police do seem quite culpable, so perhaps they are happy to see all sorts of blame go elsewhere. As far as I can see there is no official sanction for a so called code of conduct for women, only a crass remark from the Mayor of Cologne, which has been shouted down.
I am interested by this claim of a "long history" of robbery in this location. I have been to Cologne on a number of occasions, but not for the past 3 years. It never struck me as a dangerous place after dark, never seen large gangs of dodgy people hanging around and none of those yellow signs warning of such.
In comparison, if this had been Las Ramblas in Barcelona, I would agree with the statement. My whole adult life that has been an area where tourists are warned of potential issues after dark.
Well if I am wrong then the BBC is wrong. It says that similar organised gangs of robbers have been active at this location on new years eve for at least the last 5 years. Its something the police were aware of. The Mayor of Cologne, who made the stupid remarks, I now realise is a woman BTW. Frankly if you cannot see these very serious issues being used to ferment a witchhunt then you need to look again. These are serious events, very serious, in their own right, there have been similar happenings in Dusseldorf apparently over the last 3 years, but the accusations of thousands of attackers and the implications of multiple rape are not at all clear
Foment. Fermenting is something altogether different.
I always thought so, but apparently ferment can also mean stir or incite trouble, if Google is to be believed.
Mr Dixie, I don;t know if this has been said, but if there's one thing all Londoners (of whatever political hue) cannot abide it is a good politically motivated tube strike.
If Goldsmith can paint himself as firmly on the side of the commuter and hang the RMT albatross around Khan's neck, that will help him.
It would have more impact if Khan were painted not as Corbyn's puppet, but as Len's.
Londoners hate disruptions to their busy lives.
Thank you. Zac is distributing leaflets asking to ban such strikes. I will bring it up with him.
Mr Dixie, I don;t know if this has been said, but if there's one thing all Londoners (of whatever political hue) cannot abide it is a good politically motivated tube strike.
If Goldsmith can paint himself as firmly on the side of the commuter and hang the RMT albatross around Khan's neck, that will help him.
It would have more impact if Khan were painted not as Corbyn's puppet, but as Len's.
Londoners hate disruptions to their busy lives.
Thank you. Zac is distributing leaflets asking to ban such strikes. I will bring it up with him.
Ask him why he supports a totalitarian state where the right to withdraw one's labour would be denied.
Mr Dixie, I don;t know if this has been said, but if there's one thing all Londoners (of whatever political hue) cannot abide it is a good politically motivated tube strike.
If Goldsmith can paint himself as firmly on the side of the commuter and hang the RMT albatross around Khan's neck, that will help him.
It would have more impact if Khan were painted not as Corbyn's puppet, but as Len's.
Londoners hate disruptions to their busy lives.
Thank you. Zac is distributing leaflets asking to ban such strikes. I will bring it up with him.
Ask him why he supports a totalitarian state where the right to withdraw one's labour would be denied.
The right isn't withdrawn by the state, it is withdrawn contractually when you sign your employment contract. Except it applies to all such contracts.
I'm not sure why 2008 was so much higher than the rest - maybe it was seen as closer.
Looking at 2012, Boris had 972k and Ken 890k in the first round, which shows how much differential turnout helps the Tories. The key is the candidates need to find issues to get their supporters motivated to vote. I'm not seeing much so far as they both agree about Heathrow
Interesting:
Lab 2010 GE: 1.246m votes - 2012 Mayor 890k = 71.5% retention Con 2010 GE: 1.175m votes - 2012 Mayor 972k = 82.7% retention
If you apply 2015 GE figures at same retention, would would outcome be?
If you look at Assembly Member voting patterns they are closer to GE patterns. IE, Mayor's election is to some extent a vacuum.
Labour 1.105m Con 1.019m
A gap of about 90k before UKIP, LD, Green second preferences.
In 2012, the economy was in a pickle and Miliband was doing as well as he ever was at any point in the parliament.
Contrast that to the current economy and Corbyn. General sentiment favours the Tories presently.
Say what you like, Khan is a divisive candidate. His plans for affirmative action prove it. Goldmsmith should proclaim he stands for ALL Londoners, and that posts will be doled out on one basis and one basis alone. Merit.
Yes, that's why he should champion anonymous/nameless job applications. That way there is no chance of discrimination at least in the initial sorting phase. It would be a good wedge "I stand for everyone in London, not just one minority which thinks it has a bad deal".
I wouldn't worry about the delegate count early on. What matters are victories and the momentum that comes with them (and conversely, the deadening effect that a lack of victories brings). It's unlikely that there's be more than one serious candidate left long after Super Tuesday but if there are, that's what the winner-take-all states are there for.
Yes, that's exactly right. After NH we should see a shake-out of the mainstream (Bush, Kasich, Rubio, etc.) candidates. I think Cruz will stay in regardless of NH, but if he doesn't win South Carolina, up next, he could be in trouble - in fact SC may well prove a watershed for Trump too,
By watershed you mean he storms it, right ?
He's further ahead there than he is in NH.
Well, yes - if he storms it as the polls currently suggest (+15), I think he'll have seen off Cruz.
"But the leaked police report, published in Bild newspaper and Spiegel, a news magazine, claims that one of those involved told officers: “I am Syrian. You have to treat me kindly. Mrs Merkel invited me.”
Another tore up his residence permit before the eyes of police, and told them: “You can’t do anything to me, I can get a new one tomorrow.” "
So Corbyn now has his wishes in Northern Ireland policy (after forcing out Ivan Lewis) and now Trident. Hilary Benn appears to be the only remaining barrier to him enacting his entire ideology on the whole party.
Ask him why he supports a totalitarian state where the right to withdraw one's labour would be denied.
I'm against banning too, and I'm a thatcherite tory. Goldsmith needs to conjour up the image to Londoners of constant wildcat strikes by already well off tube drivers, as a powerless Khan, in hock to union barons, says much and does nothing.
''Wanna go to work? No you Khant.''
When it comes to striking tube drivers, there's no doubt which side of the fence Sadiq Khan is on.
Wow, looking at NATO membership now? Labour have really just gone mental. There is no way any party in the UK could advocate NATO withdrawal and not get obliterated in the election. Even the SNP had to knuckle under and accept NATO membership as part of their independence platform.
Wow, looking at NATO membership now? Labour have really just gone mental. There is no way any party in the UK could advocate NATO withdrawal and not get obliterated in the election. Even the SNP had to knuckle under and accept NATO membership as part of their independence platform.
Didn`t he grossly ooverspend on his campaign exxpenses? And was then let off, by the establishment?
You've answered your own question. If he was "let off, by the establishment", then no, he didn't grossly overspend on his campaign expenses.
No, I have not, Mr Navabi. It would be hard to find a more "establishment" figure than Goldsmith. Letting him off was a legal fix. He ought to have been disqualified as an MP.
On an information point, the full phrase is "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me."
I believe there is a lot of difference between being angry and writing silly things, and carrying out an act of violence. Otherwise we'd have a jail in every street.
Ralf may think that it's more important to investigate some spotty seventeen-year-old who posts on-line than stop rape and sexual assault taking place in the middle of his city.
Perhaps some of the Rotherham officials had the same opinion. I prefer to think Ralf is trying to muddy the waters and deflect attention from his own inadequacies.
Both are wrong. The actions in Germany are criminal in two ways the harassment and molestation (1) were the shield for organised robbery (2). There is a long history of organised robbery at this place at that time. The German police do seem quite culpable, so perhaps they are happy to see all sorts of blame go elsewhere. As far as I can see there is no official sanction for a so called code of conduct for women, only a crass remark from the Mayor of Cologne, which has been shouted down.
I am interested by this claim of a "long history" of robbery in this location. I have been to Cologne on a number of occasions, but not for the past 3 years. It never struck me as a dangerous place after dark, never seen large gangs of dodgy people hanging around and none of those yellow signs warning of such.
In comparison, if this had been Las Ramblas in Barcelona, I would agree with the statement. My whole adult life that has been an area where tourists are warned of potential issues after dark.
Well if I am wrong then the BBC is wrong. It says that similar organised gangs of robbers have been active at this location on new years eve for at least the last 5 years. Its something the police were aware of. The Mayor of Cologne, who made the stupid remarks, I now realise is a woman BTW. Frankly if you cannot see these very serious issues being used to ferment a witchhunt then you need to look again. These are serious events, very serious, in their own right, there have been similar happenings in Dusseldorf apparently over the last 3 years, but the accusations of thousands of attackers and the implications of multiple rape are not at all clear
Foment. Fermenting is something altogether different.
I always thought so, but apparently ferment can also mean stir or incite trouble, if Google is to be believed.
Google isn't to be believed. They're trying to excuse people's ignorance.
Comments
Today we're discussing whether Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia, is right to say that being a racist tosser online is at least as bad as sexual assault.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35248601
Schools: Boast about new academies, UTCs and free schools opening across the city. Khan is against school choice
Jobs: Boast about rapidly falling unemployment, the new living wage and the opportunities for apprenticeships
Environment: Boast - It'll be cleaner under Zac
Housing: Boast about Help to Buy, low interest rates, low council taxes - only a Conservative can deliver
Taxes: Boast about low taxes. Livingstone put up precept every year - 300% over 8 years (or something like it) - Khan voted every year for higher council tax in Wandsworth
London at the centre of the global economy: Boast about London's success as the driver of the British economy and its role at the centre of world trade, business and, yes, banking. Boast that whatever happens in the referendum, Zac the Mayor will ensure it stays there.
Khan is a job destroying tax and spender... just watch the jobs disappear.
And one reason for that is that there aren't many establishment candidates. Trump clearly isn't but Carson and Fiorina aren't politicians either, though one's campaign looks in terminal decline and the other practically dead. Cruz is Tea Party. Rubio is no centrist and his more liberal immigration stance is more to do with local factors than ideological ones. The 'establishment' candidate is Bush, and he's polling about 5% having already been considered and discarded by the electorate once.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35246752
Lab 2010 GE: 1.246m votes - 2012 Mayor 890k = 71.5% retention
Con 2010 GE: 1.175m votes - 2012 Mayor 972k = 82.7% retention
If you look at Assembly Member voting patterns they are closer to GE patterns. IE, Mayor's election is to some extent a vacuum.
#BREAKING Man shot dead by Paris police was wearing 'fake' suicide vest: sources
Con 1.019m
A gap of about 90k before UKIP, LD, Green second preferences.
In 2012, the economy was in a pickle and Miliband was doing as well as he ever was at any point in the parliament.
Contrast that to the current economy and Corbyn. General sentiment favours the Tories presently.
He's further ahead there than he is in NH.
If Goldsmith can paint himself as firmly on the side of the commuter and hang the RMT albatross around Khan's neck, that will help him.
It would have more impact if Khan were painted not as Corbyn's puppet, but as Len's.
Londoners hate disruptions to their busy lives.
But I agree that it will come down to turnout and the impact of the change in registration.
As for McBride, if he wants a fight he can have one, and his gang will lose - he was very dependent on claiming leadership backing (with debatable authority), and the membership will see off any challenge like that. But I don't think that most Labour MPs think it's going to be time to rock any more boats before May.
Sophie Ridge
The person I feel most sorry for post reshuffle? @BarryGardiner MP... https://t.co/ebC2gshugG
Livingstone clearly emboldened by new Shadow Defence team. Says his review will now look at whether UK should leave NATO.
Ken Livingstone on UK leaving NATO: "There will be many people who want to do that. I don't think it's a particularly big issue..."
Perhaps someone needs to tell him that the Warsaw Pact no longer exists.
How will this go down with states in Central and Eastern Europe. Livingstone is a deluded fool.
Jonathan Reynolds calls Diane Abbott a "sell out " and "hypocrite" for sending her son to a private school:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12086224/Diane-Abbott-Jonathan-Reynolds-twitter-spat-private-school-hypocrisy-Labour-reshuffle.html
Does Labour want UK to remain a #NATO member? “That’s one of the things we will look at” in defence review, @ken4london tells @afneil #bbcdp
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12086473/Suspects-in-Cologne-sex-attacks-claimed-to-be-Syrian-refugees.html
"But the leaked police report, published in Bild newspaper and Spiegel, a news magazine, claims that one of those involved told officers: “I am Syrian. You have to treat me kindly. Mrs Merkel invited me.”
Another tore up his residence permit before the eyes of police, and told them: “You can’t do anything to me, I can get a new one tomorrow.” "
Hilary Benn appears to be the only remaining barrier to him enacting his entire ideology on the whole party.
I'm against banning too, and I'm a thatcherite tory. Goldsmith needs to conjour up the image to Londoners of constant wildcat strikes by already well off tube drivers, as a powerless Khan, in hock to union barons, says much and does nothing.
''Wanna go to work? No you Khant.''
When it comes to striking tube drivers, there's no doubt which side of the fence Sadiq Khan is on.
Stuff like that
New Thread New Thread
To work up into a ferment or agitation; to excite, stir up.
or
To exacerbate; to foment, inflame.
Giving examples from the 1600s and 1700s onwards.