politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guid

SeanT said:

Unexpectedly, the very best article on Cologne has come from... The Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/06/tensions-rise-in-germany-over-handling-of-mass-sexual-assaults-in-cologne

Brutally honest, comprehensive and depressing

Malmesbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Malmesbury said:

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mortimer said:

HurstLlama said:

Mortimer said:

Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.

Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?

ntil the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.

So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....

It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...

If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?

I think ...

Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...

It's all here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

and an animated GIF here:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Korean_war_1950-1953.gif

Yes, pretty much - but the scale of the Chinese losses was vast. The *official* Chinese numbers were half a million casualties including 114K dead. Probably a lot worse. So it became one of those "we must have won something" wars. The survival of North Korea is a totem for those who were in the Chinese army at the time.

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Unexpectedly, the very best article on Cologne has come from... The Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/06/tensions-rise-in-germany-over-handling-of-mass-sexual-assaults-in-cologne

Brutally honest, comprehensive and depressing

A really good article, one I wouldn't expect from the guardian. I even turned off my ad blocker and refreshed the page!

This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.

EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum

I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.

But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then.
Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.

From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.

AlastairMeeks said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

Brilliant article:

"I hate to break it to feminists, but ‘white male privilege’ is a myth — Brendan O'Neill"

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-hate-to-break-it-to-feminists-but-white-male-privilege-is-a-myth/

White male tells feminists that white male privilege is a myth does seem to have an element of self-interest about it!

eek said:

Keith Vaz MP seems to have deleted his twitter account https://twitter.com/keith_vaz

peter_from_putney said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Unexpectedly, the very best article on Cologne has come from... The Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/06/tensions-rise-in-germany-over-handling-of-mass-sexual-assaults-in-cologne

Brutally honest, comprehensive and depressing

A really good article, one I wouldn't expect from the guardian. I even turned off my ad blocker and refreshed the page!

This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.

Astonishingly, this hasn't received a fraction of the media coverage in the UK such an important and serious story as this undoubtedly warrants - perhaps it will prove to be a slow burner as we get over the mega news concerning who is about to appear on CBB, etc.

Charles said:

Drawing inspiration from @SeanT's undue modesty, I wanted to make sure people had seen the following article.

We've blagged a few pretty bits and pieces that we are putting on display at our pad in London from the end of January if any one is interested.

http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/attractions/treasure-trove-reveals-how-the-ancient-egyptians-really-lived-a3149846.html

Tissue_Price said:

eek said:

Keith Vaz MP seems to have deleted his twitter account https://twitter.com/keith_vaz

Interesting. Presumably he's about to accept a job and thought it best.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.

EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum

I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.

But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then.
Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.

From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.

If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.

EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum

I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.

But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then.
Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.

From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.

If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders

That's the big known unknown.

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

MP_SE said:

Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently 5 more nutters with travel bans have fled the UK

Imagine if labour wasn't lead by an idiot, the government / May would be in hot water.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

peter_from_putney said:

Scott_P said:

@joncraig: I see Emily Thornberry has told BFBS: "I have a member of my family who is in the armed forces. I have a brother-in-law who is a general."

Oh well, that's alright then.

glw said:

chestnut said:

The public want them to go and never come back.

Yes whenever I read a story about such things I look at the comments. Most of them are "good riddance". The public are only really concerned about them coming back.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

So best to wait then.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.

EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum

I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.

But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then.
Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.

From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.

If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders

That's the big known unknown.

Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us.
Seriously, spot on comment Sean.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

So best to wait then.

As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.

The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)

The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.

I thought I read the FN vote held up, but there was even more tactical voting than normal (in a place were such activity isn't exactly uncommon).

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

So best to wait then.

As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.

The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)

The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.

I thought I read the FN vote held up, but there was even more tactical voting than normal (in a place were such activity isn't exactly uncommon).

Speedy said:

Can anyone translate this?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?

Someone put him to bed....

Paul Flynn ‏@PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.

EPG said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?

Someone put him to bed....

Paul Flynn ‏@PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.

Well the analytical content is right
The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day

Scott_P said:

Briefly saw the front page of tomorrow's Sun

FrancisUrquhart said:

The floating of the idea of moving the exam timetables around for Ramadan is making a lot of front pages. I don't think it is going to do the government a lot of good some how.

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:

eek said:

Keith Vaz MP seems to have deleted his twitter account https://twitter.com/keith_vaz

Apparently Facebook too

It definitely looks like he's joining the shadow cabinet.

Is that good or bad? He seems well regarded by my Labour voting acquaintances (those I know vote Labour at any rate)

Cyclefree said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The floating of the idea of moving the exam timetables around for Ramadan is making a lot of front pages. I don't think it is going to do the government a lot of good some how.

Especially as it's not necessary. Children are excused from fasting. The exam boards should grow a pair.

Sean_F said:

EPG said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?

Someone put him to bed....

Paul Flynn ‏@PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.

Well the analytical content is right
The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day

I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.

EPG said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy

If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.

If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.

The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.

Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.

This is the same school of thought that says "we need more attacks on women to show people how nasty a fraction of Muslims are".

Sean_F said:

EPG said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?

Someone put him to bed....

Paul Flynn ‏@PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.

Well the analytical content is right
The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day

I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

In its newly released January 2016 poll yougov has Tories split 55% Leave 45% Remain. With UKIP voters strongly for Leave, 72% to 28% and the centre left parties almost as strongly for Remain (LDs split 64% to 36% Remain, Labour 62% to 38% Remain, the Greens 68% to 32% Remain and the SNP 63% to 38% for Remain) Tories will be the key swing voters in the Referendum with the overall result just 51% to 49% for Remain once Don't Knows are excluded
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/

More than a quarter of UKIP voters want us to stay in the EU! It just goes to show that there's nought as queer as folk.

Philip_Thompson said:

Talk of Le Pen become French President is utterly absurd. The French electoral system ensures that there is no chance of that happening at all.

Le Pen is about as likely to become President and Clegg was likely to become PM last election.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.

The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)

The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.

I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.

FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

EPG said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?

Someone put him to bed....

Paul Flynn ‏@PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.

Well the analytical content is right
The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day

I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.

By challenging them, I imagine.

Philip_Thompson said:

Talk of Le Pen become French President is utterly absurd. The French electoral system ensures that there is no chance of that happening at all.

Le Pen is about as likely to become President and Clegg was likely to become PM last election.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:

eek said:

Keith Vaz MP seems to have deleted his twitter account https://twitter.com/keith_vaz

Apparently Facebook too

It definitely looks like he's joining the shadow cabinet.

Is that good or bad? He seems well regarded by my Labour voting acquaintances (those I know vote Labour at any rate)

I could be wrong but I seem to recall he was very prominent in the Salman Rushdie book burning demonstrations in Bradford in the 1980's. Looking at back at those demonstrations now you can't help thinking we should have clamped down then and said it was not acceptable to call for the murder off A UK citizen simply because he offended your religion.

Vaz isn't a Muslim?