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Ukip !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Plato said:

I can't help feeling this is a bit unfair to Kippers. Their councillors have been discovered doing naughty things or whatever and so have been found out very shortly after their election. If they'd had longer in post - perhaps a base would've been established another could have worked up from.

We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?

We have always talked about council by election results on here . Sean Fear used do a weekly thread on the results .

SeanT said:

Is there something I don't know about Anglesey? That looks like a spectacularly bad performance by Labour?

Labour run Wales. Nuff said.

Incidentally, I'd still lay Alonso to be top 3 at 1.49 or thereabouts (in the title race). His performances aren't quite as good as last year, Raikkonen and the Lotus are very reliable, and Hamilton/Mercedes seem to be improving at a rapid pace.

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, I'd still lay Alonso to be top 3 at 1.49 or thereabouts (in the title race). His performances aren't quite as good as last year, Raikkonen and the Lotus are very reliable, and Hamilton/Mercedes seem to be improving at a rapid pace.

You're ignoring the blatant favouritism shown towards Ferrari by the F1 authorities. Alonso will almost certainly finish within the top three.

@Plato

From the very early days of PB Sean Fear, who has become a good friend and is now my solicitor, used to do a good weekly round-up of the local by-elections.

Then other sites started covering these in depth but that waned and earlier in the year I invited Harry Hayfield to write a weekly preview.

Because of other commitments Sean F was unable to continue with his weekly piece but there's a long-standing invitation from me to write a column whenever he sees fit.

This came at a time when UKP was moving forward and since then there have been a lot of developments.

PB gets a very good audience Thurs night/Fri morning and I seem to attract a lot more Twitter followers.

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Plato said:

I can't help feeling this is a bit unfair to Kippers. Their councillors have been discovered doing naughty things or whatever and so have been found out very shortly after their election. If they'd had longer in post - perhaps a base would've been established another could have worked up from.

We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?

We have always talked about council by election results on here . Sean Fear used do a weekly thread on the results .

"Fear On Friday" - Happy days.

BTW Mark as our resident numismatic genius might you be able to give me a ball park figure for a James II touchpiece in decent but far from mint condition ??

Hi Jack . Does the touchpiece have the usual piercing for suspension ?

@Plato

A minor flirt with mortality and Mrs JackW put paid to "Against The Grain".

However I'm hopeful that suitably bribing the powers that be .... No not Mike Smithson but God and Mrs JackW will allow me to pen the odd missive as the GE looms.

MarkSenior said:

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Plato said:

I can't help feeling this is a bit unfair to Kippers. Their councillors have been discovered doing naughty things or whatever and so have been found out very shortly after their election. If they'd had longer in post - perhaps a base would've been established another could have worked up from.

We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?

We have always talked about council by election results on here . Sean Fear used do a weekly thread on the results .

"Fear On Friday" - Happy days.

BTW Mark as our resident numismatic genius might you be able to give me a ball park figure for a James II touchpiece in decent but far from mint condition ??

Hi Jack . Does the touchpiece have the usual piercing for suspension ?

Yes. The definition is good with just acceptable appropriate age related rubbing.

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Plato said:

I can't help feeling this is a bit unfair to Kippers. Their councillors have been discovered doing naughty things or whatever and so have been found out very shortly after their election. If they'd had longer in post - perhaps a base would've been established another could have worked up from.

We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?

We have always talked about council by election results on here . Sean Fear used do a weekly thread on the results .

"Fear On Friday" - Happy days.

BTW Mark as our resident numismatic genius might you be able to give me a ball park figure for a James II touchpiece in decent but far from mint condition ??

Hi Jack . Does the touchpiece have the usual piercing for suspension ?

Yes. The definition is good with just acceptable appropriate age related rubbing.

Is it a silver one or a gold one ?

tim,

"the PB Tories who believe black coffee was banned in London in the 80's can clear it up for us"

This sounds a bit unlikely to me. Obviously, you'll have the links, but could you name and shame them, please? Otherwise, some people (not me) might consider that you're indulging in what my granny used to call "a little romancing."

Miss Plato, presumably it means their support is wide enough to include blatant liars?

Yet another gang of rapists:
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/ten-charged-coventry-sex-gang-5429952

Miss DiCanio, I'm afraid that pleasure has eluded me.

tim said:

Depends what you think the point of UKIP is, to win power or to move the Tories to the right, on the latter they are succeeding.

If they move the Tories economically to the right while Dave holds firm socially then they will have done everyone a service.

TOPPING said:

tim said:

Depends what you think the point of UKIP is, to win power or to move the Tories to the right, on the latter they are succeeding.

If they move the Tories economically to the right while Dave holds firm socially then they will have done everyone a service.

And if they poll up to 10% and cost the Tories the next general election they'll have done Labour an even bigger service!

Plato said:

Ha! I read some pathetic justification from the SNP last night?

Try to grasp the truth for once instead constantly of parroting pitiful CCHQ spin for the tories.

Central to the attack was an image published on the group’s Facebook page last year. You can see it in full below, and you’ll understand what we mean by “in full” shortly.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/lfifb1.jpg

The caption attached to the picture is unambiguous, but we’ll add emphasis anyway: “Lab4Indy in Killie today campaigning alongside Yes East Ayrshire“.

The picture was actually taken by one of the Yes East Ayrshire campaigners in question. He tweeted it on his personal Twitter account the same day, 15 December

The picture was actually taken by one of the Yes East Ayrshire campaigners in question. He tweeted it on his personal Twitter account the same day, 15 December:

https://twitter.com/Graham_W_Barton/status/279978208135352321

You’ll have noted the caption, but again we’ll add some emphasis for extra clarity: “Big thanks to @labourforindy for attending todays EastAyrshire @YesScotland stall.”

So the facts couldn’t be clearer: absolutely nobody was pretending that everyone in the picture was a Labour For Independence campaigner. It was explicitly and publicly stated, in numerous locations, seven and a half months ago, that the image showed LFI helping out at a Yes Scotland stall with Yes campaigners.

Barton tweeted other images at the time which allow no room for doubt:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/barton2.jpg

So it’s mystifying that bad-tempered, emotionally-fragile Scotsman columnist Euan McColm could have been sufficiently confused as to publish a shock-horror report on right-wing blog ThinkScotland yesterday in which he revealed something everyone had already known since 2012 – that some of the people in the first pic were Yes Scotland campaigners, not Labour For Independence ones.

(Assuming, as apparently we’re being asked to do, that the bright blue “Yes” t-shirts they were wearing hadn’t already rather given the game away.)

People at a Yes campaign stand wearing Yes t-shirts were in fact Yes campaigners, he went on to drop an astonishing bombshell: that a lot of people in the Yes campaign are also in the SNP.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/

Plato said:

I still can't think of a single SLAB poster - Mr Pork comes closest as he spends a huge amount of time rubbishing the Tories but poses as SNP.

ajohnstone, oldlabour...?

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

tim said:

Depends what you think the point of UKIP is, to win power or to move the Tories to the right, on the latter they are succeeding.

If they move the Tories economically to the right while Dave holds firm socially then they will have done everyone a service.

And if they poll up to 10% and cost the Tories the next general election they'll have done Labour an even bigger service!

They're not getting anywhere near 10%, I would say 4-7% is about right. And some of those will be refugees from the very wonderful and forward looking Labour Party so not quite as clear cut.

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I'm not sure this statement from the African Union is one that fills me with confidence in them:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23546050

"Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections were "free, honest and credible", the African Union observer mission's head has said."

The BBC correspondent (from Harare) put it well. He said: "imagine you woke up after the General Election and the Conservatives had won every seat in Scotland...."

SeanT said:

uk pmi construction @ 57.0


That's massive. Boomtime data. The economy might be about to really motor. Which changes everything.

That'll be Osborne killing construction.... oh wait...

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I'm not sure this statement from the African Union is one that fills me with confidence in them:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23546050

"Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections were "free, honest and credible", the African Union observer mission's head has said."

I heard one political commentator say this morning that the scale of the electoral fraud was such that Mugabe had managed the electoral equivalent of the Conservatives sweeping all of Scotland.

Yes that bad !!!!!

MarkSenior said:

Plato said:

I can't help feeling this is a bit unfair to Kippers. Their councillors have been discovered doing naughty things or whatever and so have been found out very shortly after their election. If they'd had longer in post - perhaps a base would've been established another could have worked up from.

We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?

We have always talked about council by election results on here . Sean Fear used do a weekly thread on the results .

Why must you sully inept tory spin with the facts and the truth? For shame! ;^ )

Mick_Pork said:

Plato said:

Mr Pork comes closest as he spends a huge amount of time rubbishing the Tories but poses as SNP.

I can hardly be held responsible for inept tory spinners so staggeringly stupid and incompetent that they don't seem to realise the tories aren't popular in scotland and that labour doesn't have a monopoly on opposition to them.

Way, way before the PB 'brain trust' suddenly realised there was somewhere called Falkirk, and labour had extremely dodgy practices, some of us were highlighting the ongoing SLAB infighting and the battle for control between the Blairites and the Brownites involving the likes of wee Dougie and Murphy. So you'll forgive me for treating idiot posts on a subject you clearly know nothing about with vast amusement.

Plato said:

They're SNP councillors posing as reps of another rival party. That's taking sockpuppeting to a whole new level.

This from the self-proclaimed "serial labour voter" who spends all their time ineptly spinning for Cammie and ranting about lefties. Good thing you don't have a tory Financier sponsoring your witless spin, isn't it?
Unspoofable. ;^ )

Mr Pork I gladly concede that the Conservatives are not making progress in Scotland but are just treading water. I have been saying that from the start of Ms Goldie's time, even before they appointed her pseudo daughter. The Scottish Lib Dems are clearly dying, except in the eyes of the LDs. But Mr Pork, how about sharing some insights into how well SLAB will do in GE 2015? How many GE seats will SNP gain from SLAB? Fighting Mrs Rab C Nesbit cannot be a hard battle?

Penddu said:

LDs in Wales were originally non-conformists with their strength in rural Wales but over the years have lost this voter base to Plaid, although retaining this support in English speaking Powys. More recently and much like England they have built up a student base in places like Cardiff Central and Ceredigion, but which will be heavily hit by their flip-flop on student fees. They have also built up a middle class vote in many suburban seats, but which is not strong.

So in Wales I expect LDs to lose the student seats of Cardiff Central - to Lab - and to Ceredigion - to Plaid - but should just hang on in Brecon. But I also expect them to lose generally across the board and only retain a single regional seat, leaving a grand total of 2 WA seats.

@Penddu:

I expect Mark Williams to retain Ceredigion - he markedly increased his majority in 2010 over a weak PC candidate. Among the farming community, the PC AM does not appear to very popular and is nigh invisible a lot of the time.

However, it is possible that LD could hold on to Brecon - depends whether incumbent stands again. Agree with you on Cardiff Central.

Plato said:

@TCPoliticalBetting
Cripes - I missed that kitchen sink bit. And yet they got schooled.
A thread on Welsh Labour for GE2105 would be fascinating. All the horror stories re the NHS and education must be having an impact.

I agree that this would be worth some attention Mr Smithson OGH!
With the LDs in Wales likely to lose 2 of their 3 MPs, the two parties that have any chance of gains from Labour in Wales are PC and the Conservatives. Probably PC have the better chance, but are PC able to lay into Labour on the NHS?

SeanT said:

Alanbrooke said:

SeanT said:

Slackbladder said:

SeanT said:

uk pmi construction @ 57.0

That's massive. Boomtime data. The economy might be about to really motor. Which changes everything.

That'll be Osborne killing construction.... oh wait...

The economic news dwarfs the latest votes from Meaningless Ward South.

Some of the data we're getting now suggests UK growth might be accelerating MUCH faster than anticipated. To 2, 3, or even 4 percent.

If that happens, Cameron wins in 2015, I think.

He'll need to put some cash back in people's pockets first, but if growth has kicked in that becomes a lot easier.

Not sure that's true. In 2015 he just needs to say Look, we've got strong growth, falling unemployment, a falling deficit (which follows from good growth), are you really gonna let Labour, under Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, the men who bankrupted us the first time, cock it up all over again?!

That's a very powerful, simple story to sell. And hard to counter.

But it depends on the recovery sustaining and strengthening. Big if.

Agreed and with Crosby involved there is a better chance of a coherent campaign than in 2010.

Mr. Divvie, assuming that's a slightly unsubtle dig at my good self, no.

Some people who claim not to be Tories have consistently criticised the greenist way of Cameron, the Defence cuts, the ring-fencing of Health and Aid spending. Those same people have not pretended to be members of Labour against global warming, or suchlike.

@SeanT

The big unknown at Ynys Mon was which way the very large number of Independents' supporters would vote. It would appear that they threw in their lot with PC or UKIP. They have 14 seats to 12 for PC at the 2013 Council elections and 32% of the vote.

Labour have 3 seats and 17% of the vote and probably another scion of a previous Welsh politician was not the most popular choice.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, assuming that's a slightly unsubtle dig at my good self, no.

Some people who claim not to be Tories have consistently criticised the greenist way of Cameron, the Defence cuts, the ring-fencing of Health and Aid spending. Those same people have not pretended to be members of Labour against global warming, or suchlike.

MD, methinks you are barking up the wrong tree, it was very clear who it was aimed at , a serial labour voter who spins for the Tories does not suggest your good self to me, but it is obvious who it is.

tim said:

Biggest rise in construction for three years, ie since Osborne killed it.
What a shame that three years had to happen

Yup

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mr Pork I gladly concede that the Conservatives are not making progress in Scotland but are just treading water. I have been saying that from the start of Ms Goldie's time, even before they appointed her pseudo daughter. The Scottish Lib Dems are clearly dying, except in the eyes of the LDs. But Mr Pork, how about sharing some insights into how well SLAB will do in GE 2015? How many GE seats will SNP gain from SLAB? Fighting Mrs Rab C Nesbit cannot be a hard battle?

I've covered this many, many times before and yet for some bizarre reason you keep asking the same question after I answer it. The simple fact of the matter is that nobody can proclaim with any certainty on 2015 because of the Independence Referendum. Yes or No it's an unprecedented factor and nobody knows how the scottish VI will shake out after it it. I would strongly advise looking at what limited data we have on VI for 2015 and basically using that as a guide because it will at least give a good insight into the vote share the likes of the scottish lib dems and SCON are likely to get. The referendum won't change their VI very much so you are basically looking at the remaining SNP/SLAB split and allocating whatever number you fancy onto the current figures.

The scottish subsample from ICM's most recent poll showed


SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Conservatives 18%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

While the latest Holyrood VI shows

Constituency vote

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)

Regional list vote

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Greens 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)

The scottish subsample is of course an imperfect tool and you can't draw a straight line between Holyrood and Wesminster VI. Yet it's abundantly clear that the scottish lib dems are in deep, deep trouble while there is still no sign whatsoever of any supposed scottish tory surge. It's not very unreasonable to suppose that there is an SNP lead for 2015 at the moment though the size may be somewhat less than that indicates. You have to use your judgement on the core vote for the SNP and SLAB to then factor in how the Referendum will hit either party yet an overwhelming lead for either in 2015 is doubtful. Holyrood, maybe for the SNP. More unlikely at the GE because of the tory fear factor and a return to a two horse race with labour and the tories

Mick_Pork said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Fighting Mrs Rab C Nesbit cannot be a hard battle?

I've covered this many, many times before and yet for some bizarre reason you keep asking the same question after I answer it. The simple fact of the matter is that nobody can proclaim with any certainty on 2015 because of the Independence Referendum. Yes or No it's an unprecedented factor and nobody knows how the scottish VI will shake out after it it. I would strongly advise looking at what limited data we have on VI for 2015 and basically using that as a guide because it will at least give a good insight into the vote share the likes of the scottish lib dems and SCON are likely to get. The referendum won't change their VI very much so you are basically looking at the remaining SNP/SLAB split and allocating whatever number you fancy onto the current figures.

The scottish subsample from ICM's most recent poll showed


SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Conservatives 18%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

While the latest Holyrood VI shows

Constituency vote

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)

Regional list vote

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Greens 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)

The scottish subsample is of course an imperfect tool and you can't draw a straight line between Holyrood and Wesminster VI. Yet it's abundantly clear that the scottish lib dems are in deep, deep trouble while there is still no sign whatsoever of any supposed scottish tory surge. It's not very unreasonable to suppose that there is an SNP lead for 2015 at the moment though the size may be somewhat less than that indicates. You have to use your judgement on the core vote for the SNP and SLAB to then factor in how the Referendum will hit either party yet an overwhelming lead for either in 2015 is doubtful. Holyrood, maybe for the SNP. More unlikely at the GE because of the tory fear factor and a return to a two horse race with labour and the tories

What was the Scottish subsample in last night's Yougov

Lab 41% Con 21% SNP 15% LD 14%

Sub samples are not an imperfect tool , they are useless .

tim said:

@MarkSenior/SeanFear

The Ribble valley result looks unusual, who was the independent an ex Tory?
Can't imagine Nigel Evans travails will have made that much difference

The Independent is an ex UKIP member and former UKIP candidate involved in the local residents association .He is best described as a NOTA where the above includes UKIP

tim said:

CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 55s
Ukranian student accused of murdering grandfather during anti-Muslim terror campaign will stand trial in January.


Whose immigration status would David Cameron be checking first?

But tim all immigration is good isn't it ?

Strange , Yougov have corrected last night's poll figures . They are now giving Con 34 Lab 40 LD 11 UKIP 10

tim said:

CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 55s
Ukranian student accused of murdering grandfather during anti-Muslim terror campaign will stand trial in January.


Whose immigration status would David Cameron be checking first?

How many lefties were secretly disappointed it wasn't a white Brit I wonder? We'll never know

tim said:

OK

PB Tory false memory syndrome

London in the 80's

Baa Baa Black sheep was banned
Black coffeee was banned
Black bin liners were banned
References to manhole covers were banned.

Other race based

Immigrants use cats to stay in the country
Black children were restricted to playing oil drums in school music lessons
St George flag was banned for fear of upsetting Muslims
England football shirts banned at school for fear of upsetting immigrants.

1994 World Cup was played

With larger goals
In front of half empty stadiums
In quarters for US TV
With adverts obscuring half the screen

The Trade Union ones legion, too legion to mention

Must be more

You are making a fool of yourself


http://youtu.be/COt65HZCJaA

MarkSenior said:

Mick_Pork said:

MarkSenior said:

Sub samples are not an imperfect tool , they are useless .

It was the ICM subsample not YouGov which is why I quoted it but still gave the caveat.

Given that there is such limited data to work with it is not unreasonable to include the ICM subsample along with the Holyrood VI as long as that caveat is given

Either way anyone who thinks the lib dems are not in deep, deep trouble in scotland has their head up their arse, and not JackW's infamous one.

Well you could have given the Comres Scottish subsample

Lab 41 SNP 33 Con 9 LD 13

or for completeness the Populus one as well

Lab 39 SNP 36 Con 13 LD 11

I didn't have them but by all means put them into the pot as they confirm roughly where the scottish lib dem and SCON votes are while it underlines that the SNP and SLAB are well in front fighting for that large remaining split.

Like I said an imperfect tool but the better the pollster is and the more data there is to throw in for comparison the more likely it is to get at least a basic rough guide without a specific poll on scottish VI for 2015.

It's tempting to use the Holyrood VI as a base comparator for them all right now but it's usefulness as a guide to 2015 reduces the closer we get to the actual 2015 GE given the fundamental differences in an actual Westmisnter general election campaign from the Holyrood one.