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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s locals strategy takes a knock as it loses more of the seats won in May
It might be August but it’s been a big night of by-elections with PC having an easy victory in the Ynys Mon Welsh Assembly contest and UKIP losing both the county council seats that had been gained three months.
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I was just thinking about a suitable short response when stopped by the Border Force .... I'm all prepared in frontline Harpenden !!
We never used to pay much attention to ward level results in all the yrs I've been reading PB - why do we talk about them so much now?
Mildly amusing Ashton piece here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23514483
BBC chap marvels at how amazing she/the EU is, the comments are filled with people annoyed that she was unelected and that she and the EU are unaccountable.
On-topic: not too surprising. They've been out of the news for a bit, and the Conservatives seem to be getting their act rather more together.
The previous story re Rotherham fostering got loads of traction and no doubt helped to raise their profile.
That they're falling back a bit is what I'd expect - the media are also a bit bored of talking them up - we had a whole month of it around the LE's in May.
BTW Mark as our resident numismatic genius might you be able to give me a ball park figure for a James II touchpiece in decent but far from mint condition ??
UKIP couldn't have penned the article better themselves.
From the very early days of PB Sean Fear, who has become a good friend and is now my solicitor, used to do a good weekly round-up of the local by-elections.
Then other sites started covering these in depth but that waned and earlier in the year I invited Harry Hayfield to write a weekly preview.
Because of other commitments Sean F was unable to continue with his weekly piece but there's a long-standing invitation from me to write a column whenever he sees fit.
This came at a time when UKP was moving forward and since then there have been a lot of developments.
PB gets a very good audience Thurs night/Fri morning and I seem to attract a lot more Twitter followers.
Plato said:
I always thought of Wales as quite a LD powerbase - wrongly or rightly, but it seems to have fallen away. What's going on over there?
I thought a recent comment by another PBer about the *managerialism* of Welsh Labour vs their more *mafia* type colleagues in Scotland was fascinating.
@Plato:
At Westminster level the LDs hold 3 seats: Cardiff Central (Maj. 4,576 over Labour), Brecon -part of Powys (Maj: 3,747 over Cons) and Ceredigion (Maj.8,324 over Plaid).
At WA level, they were the junior partner in the Coalition with Labour at the first assembly, and since then have lost their way even with their newish leader. (1999: 6 seats, 2003: 6; 2007: 6 and 2011: 5).
At Council level, LDs in the country areas have lost way to PC and Cons, but the scene is confused as for example Powys (mainly Montgomery & Brecon) and Ceredigion have a lot of Independent Councillors, as in Ynys Mon.
In Wales, LDs were more old-fashioned Liberal than LD and the personality and character of the incumbent can count for a lot at election time. However, they have been accused of being Labour's moll (when Labour needs them) and many people are uncertain what they stand for, whereas both PC and Cons are more finite in their policies - even if you do not like them.
Yes, Ferrari International Assistance may help, but if the car can't qualify well and is fourth fastest when it comes to race pace then he won't be able to finish in the top 3. Raikkonen and Hamilton are no slouches.
A minor flirt with mortality and Mrs JackW put paid to "Against The Grain".
However I'm hopeful that suitably bribing the powers that be .... No not Mike Smithson but God and Mrs JackW will allow me to pen the odd missive as the GE looms.
The arguments seem to end up being a fight between SNP and England - with Wales barely mentioned. I still can't think of a single SLAB poster - Mr Pork comes closest as he spends a huge amount of time rubbishing the Tories but poses as SNP.
Harry's pieces are most informative - especially for those of us who do not know the political history of the locality.
Also find TSE's summary of the day on Nighthawks (with clickable links) very useful, as often I can only view PB very early am, lunchtime and later pm.
Heartfelt thanks to both and please may they continue.
tim,
"the PB Tories who believe black coffee was banned in London in the 80's can clear it up for us"
This sounds a bit unlikely to me. Obviously, you'll have the links, but could you name and shame them, please? Otherwise, some people (not me) might consider that you're indulging in what my granny used to call "a little romancing."
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/ten-charged-coventry-sex-gang-5429952
The main point of the by-elections for UKIP was that though it lost 2 very precarious seats the UKIP share of vote held up, and in fact went up in places. This trend belies the latest national polls.
In the chair for Any Questions tonight with Michael Howard, Paul Boateng, Owen Jones and Isobel Hardman
I did not have time to do the YouGov supplementaries today as I was in the office at 5.30am responding to our Far East clients.
In at that time, as this week and next, we have clients visiting us from eastern Europe. However, as the office is 20metres from the beach they have decided to bring their families with them. So from about 11.00 am we have young children (who speak no English) demanding paper and pens, and dipping into the biscuit barrel and fruit bowl. They are very well-behaved but a distraction.
As long as it is fine weather, they (children and mums) happily depart to the beach, after taking them to the ice cream stall, with a hamper, whilst we talk business.
So at present it is quiet time before the onslaught begins.
Those who thought Richard Nabavi had taken hyperbole as far as it would go describing Osborne as "the near perfect chancellor" will be delighted to know he managed to raise the bar even further. He described SeanT's Telegraph blog (the familiar Muslim's are rapists and murderers) as "a journalistic masterpiece"!
The second was from Fitilass who thought Toby Young had been treated shabbily by Stella Creasy because there was nothing wrong with a bit of gender banter!! (I had to check it really was Fitilass)
DELETED BY MODERATOR
TBH, I thought @NickPalmer's comment was a bit off. It's not your job to provide any data about anything.
If he wants to share it with us - he can.
There is a tendency for a few PBers to complain that others don't post about X - well they can do it themselves and save us all the pixels moaning about why AN Other didn't do it first.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23546050
"Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections were "free, honest and credible", the African Union observer mission's head has said."
I've been offered the gold one privately from another collector at an as yet undisclosed price.
I noted that auction. The condition is good but my silver one is really very good indeed. I tend not to replicate but will buy an improved piece.
I especially covet a Henry IX gold piece. I'll bag one eventually !!
Thanks again for the advice.
So in Wales I expect LDs to lose the student seats of Cardiff Central - to Lab - and to Ceredigion - to Plaid - but should just hang on in Brecon. But I also expect them to lose generally across the board and only retain a single regional seat, leaving a grand total of 2 WA seats.
Way, way before the PB 'brain trust' suddenly realised there was somewhere called Falkirk, and labour had extremely dodgy practices, some of us were highlighting the ongoing SLAB infighting and the battle for control between the Blairites and the Brownites involving the likes of wee Dougie and Murphy. So you'll forgive me for treating idiot posts on a subject you clearly know nothing about with vast amusement.
This from the self-proclaimed "serial labour voter" who spends all their time ineptly spinning for Cammie and ranting about lefties. Good thing you don't have a tory Financier sponsoring your witless spin, isn't it?
Unspoofable. ;^ )
Note none of the panel are elected reps of the HoC. Howard is a Lord, Boateng got to be a Big Wig in Africa via Tony, Jones is the BBC's pet and Isobel is the token indy journo.
Yes that bad !!!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-23506132
So even after throwing the proverbial kitchen sink Labour went backwards. Was it their infamous ground game that tim boasts about? Based on a common conclusion by some on here, this does of course mean that the 2010 Lib Dem voters will deliver for Ed Milliband a Labour majority in 2015 and that the LDs 1% of the vote also means that they keep all 3 of their Welsh MPs.
PS Is the moon made of green cheese?
Cripes - I missed that kitchen sink bit. And yet they got schooled.
A thread on Welsh Labour for GE2105 would be fascinating. All the horror stories re the NHS and education must be having an impact.
We can be sure you're tone deaf (like so many here) about Scottish politics though.
I expect Mark Williams to retain Ceredigion - he markedly increased his majority in 2010 over a weak PC candidate. Among the farming community, the PC AM does not appear to very popular and is nigh invisible a lot of the time.
However, it is possible that LD could hold on to Brecon - depends whether incumbent stands again. Agree with you on Cardiff Central.
25,717 personal insolvencies in England & Wales in Q2 2013, down 6% on the same time last year
With the LDs in Wales likely to lose 2 of their 3 MPs, the two parties that have any chance of gains from Labour in Wales are PC and the Conservatives. Probably PC have the better chance, but are PC able to lay into Labour on the NHS?
peterb @purpleline
Ed Balls placed on suicide watch as more economic good news from the UK hits his holiday dacha #PlanAworked Even Royal Baby named after him
Anyone who has been following the by election would know that Labour certainly did not throw everything including the kitchen sink into the campaign . The whole campaign was very strangely pretty much low key and it was clear early on that Plaid were going to win if not by such a large margin .
Some people who claim not to be Tories have consistently criticised the greenist way of Cameron, the Defence cuts, the ring-fencing of Health and Aid spending. Those same people have not pretended to be members of Labour against global warming, or suchlike.
Markit Economics @MarkitEconomics
Eurozone June PPI 0.0%m/m (RT poll 0.0%), +0.3% y/y in line with reuters forecast - Eurostat
The big unknown at Ynys Mon was which way the very large number of Independents' supporters would vote. It would appear that they threw in their lot with PC or UKIP. They have 14 seats to 12 for PC at the 2013 Council elections and 32% of the vote.
Labour have 3 seats and 17% of the vote and probably another scion of a previous Welsh politician was not the most popular choice.
"Comic Relief has called in Charity Commission investigators over concerns of possible fraud relating to a £450,000 donation to a Ugandan charity.
It is understood up to £200,000 of the donation, given by the British public via Comic Relief to the Ugandan charity the Busoga Association UK, is unaccounted for or is the subject of possible abuse.
It is alleged that £50,000 of the grant was used to pay for consultants to make the bid for a donation from Comic Relief – an extremely high amount for such consultancy work, according to those familiar with the case.
The scottish subsample from ICM's most recent poll showed
SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Conservatives 18%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%
While the latest Holyrood VI shows
Constituency vote
SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)
Regional list vote
SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Greens 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)
The scottish subsample is of course an imperfect tool and you can't draw a straight line between Holyrood and Wesminster VI. Yet it's abundantly clear that the scottish lib dems are in deep, deep trouble while there is still no sign whatsoever of any supposed scottish tory surge. It's not very unreasonable to suppose that there is an SNP lead for 2015 at the moment though the size may be somewhat less than that indicates. You have to use your judgement on the core vote for the SNP and SLAB to then factor in how the Referendum will hit either party yet an overwhelming lead for either in 2015 is doubtful. Holyrood, maybe for the SNP. More unlikely at the GE because of the tory fear factor and a return to a two horse race with labour and the tories
It would also be funny, because Miliband would then have to call on his own grandees. Blair perhaps? Or Brown? I think you could rule out any strong backing from Reid or Jowell or Blunkett or Hutton. Maybe he could call on Kinnock and Livinsgtone to sell his message.
Seriously, I think this is an angle the Tories and Lib Dems could use to trump Labour. And make Miliband look a little isolated.
Lab 41% Con 21% SNP 15% LD 14%
Sub samples are not an imperfect tool , they are useless .
Lab 48 Con 23 Plaid 9 LD 8 UKIP 8
Assembly Constituency poll has Labour with a wide lead with Con and Plaid neck and neck.
Assembly List voting intentions have Lab and Plaid neck and neck.
But Welsh nation wide polls are not the perfect tool.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2292188/Now-Brussels-wants-hold-elections-SUNDAYS-bring-Britain-line-rest-Europe.html
Now they want us all to vote as the lemmings vote; off the cliff.
So with Con, Lab, LD, SNP and Plaid done we can predict half of the elected MEPs. When UKIP finish its process, we could know 2/3 of the winning candidates without waiting for May 2014.
Given that there is such limited data to work with it is not unreasonable to include the ICM subsample along with the Holyrood VI as long as that caveat is given
Either way anyone who thinks the lib dems are not in deep, deep trouble in scotland has their head up their arse, and not JackW's infamous one.
"Using the Tory Grandees to sell that story on telly will also be a good move, I think. Getting the likes of Heseltine, Major and Portillo on the news underlining the achievements would work: people like hearing from the veterans; the like the gravitas and experience."
More likely these so called grandees would put them off and vote UKIP.
Major comes over as a wimp nowadays, Heseltine looks what he he is; tired and used up and Portillo is #sadmanonatrain.
"Either way anyone who thinks the lib dems are not in deep, deep trouble in scotland has their head up their arse, and not JackW's infamous one.
.................................................................................
Infamy, infamy .... The Scot Nats have got it infamy !!
How many lefties were secretly disappointed it wasn't a white Brit I wonder? We'll never know
Well you could have given the Comres Scottish subsample
Lab 41 SNP 33 Con 9 LD 13
or for completeness the Populus one as well
Lab 39 SNP 36 Con 13 LD 11
You are making a fool of yourself
http://youtu.be/COt65HZCJaA
Heseltine, a pro-European, would appeal to the middle-ground voters the Tories need to attract in the marginals. He and Portillo certainly wouldn't be attractive to UKIP.
My point is, grandees can be useful in a campaign, and the Tories may well have an advantage here in that Major and Heseltine and co will hugely back Cameron, whereas Miliband will struggle to get the equivalent support.
The more I see these posts - the more entertained I am. When Labour's online activists are reduced to such nonsense, they've nothing substantive to say.
When their party makes a hit that changes polling for more than a fortnight - I'll pay attention.
They usually have no constituency, are Lords, are past it for good reason and still yearn the limelight/back-seat drive.
I don't want to know what any Tory pre-97 thinks. They had their day and now its 16yrs later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23545955
I didn't have them but by all means put them into the pot as they confirm roughly where the scottish lib dem and SCON votes are while it underlines that the SNP and SLAB are well in front fighting for that large remaining split.
Like I said an imperfect tool but the better the pollster is and the more data there is to throw in for comparison the more likely it is to get at least a basic rough guide without a specific poll on scottish VI for 2015.
It's tempting to use the Holyrood VI as a base comparator for them all right now but it's usefulness as a guide to 2015 reduces the closer we get to the actual 2015 GE given the fundamental differences in an actual Westmisnter general election campaign from the Holyrood one.
Truth hurts
I read it was a Somalian and mistakenly repeated it.
But so what?
Do you think people who are racist would care at all whether it was a Somalian or someone of Nigerian descent? Are there racist white people out there that only have it in for Somalians?