politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s ratings tumble could impact on who runs the LEAVE

Morris_Dancer said:

Congrats, Mr. Eagles

blackburn63 said:

Wanderer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

blackburn63 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The BBC - Harold Wilson David Cameron to announce that UK ministers will be allowed to campaign for either side ahead of the EU referendum

Well, that's the first of my two assumptions fulfilled on why the Tories will not split post referendum.

David Cameron didn't really have a choice on this. My only surprise is that he's conceded the point this early in the process. It suggests to me that the vote may well be sooner rather than later.

In terms of time what is the least notice than can be given?

16 weeks. I'm expecting the least notice possible once David Cameron is ready.

One reason why David Cameron may well want to go early is that the Leave camps are squabbling for precedence and this is likely to continue for some time. Going later will give them more time to sort themselves out.

True. Everything favours going early from Cameron's point of view. I think even June vs September makes a real difference.

Plenty of people saying the refugee crisis will worsen in the summer, right or wrong plenty will link that with the EU.

It's a massive call for Dave in terms of timing, does Bottler Brown become Dithering Dave?

MikeK said:

Good morning all.

I hate to say it, but I will: it looks like SA are coming back at UK and may even overtake them by close of play today. That shows how unsound the early declaration by Cook was.

Most voters won’t have heard of Michael Dugher. He was a backroom boy for Gordon Brown in Number 10 and before that a special adviser to Geoff Hoon at the Ministry of Defence. Now he has been fired by Jeremy Corbyn from the shadow cabinet, in a move that was widely expected at Westminster but is still jarring now that it has happened. Dugher has voiced concerns about where the far-left leadership is taking Labour and in a tweet today he said simply: “Just been sacked by Jeremy Corbyn. I wished him a happy new year.”

Sacking Dugher will, I suspect, turn out to be one of the most stupid moves made by Corbyn in a long and growing list of stupid moves.

The mayor of Cologne has summoned police for crisis talks after about 80 women reported sexual assaults and muggings by men on New Year's Eve.
The scale of the attacks on women at the city's central train station has shocked Germany. About 1,000 drunk and aggressive young men were involved.
City police chief Wolfgang Albers called it "a completely new dimension of crime". The men were of Arab or North African appearance, he said.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

So now Ministers can campaign for Leave - which ones will?

From the cabinet, IDS, Grayling, Whittingdale for sure.

ThreeQuidder said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/04/indian-english-phrases-indianisms-english-americanisms-vocabulary?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Following on from last nights discussion of accents and dialect, this is an interesting article on Indian Idioms. I have had many letters asking me to "do the needful".

English is an evolving languge, and an increasingly international one.

I hate the use of "kindly" when what is meant is "please".

And the other one that's creeping into business communication, on a customer/supplier basis, is "please may you...". No. I can or I can't. This is, I know, a hyper-correction from people who've had it drilled into them at school to ask "may I go to the toilet?" but still.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Corbyn has done it again. Made himself look even weaker and more ridiculous than he was before. It is a magnificent achievement that really deserves wider recognition.

I mean, I can sort of understand why he thought it less than optimal to have his shadow foreign secretary completely disagreeing with him on the floor of the HoC and getting applause from the Tories. But to then find, after you have started and briefed the media that you are going to do something about it, that you simply cannot form a shadow cabinet unless you leave him in place is truly spectacular.

What I cannot get is why anyone vaguely serious wants to be in his shadow cabinet at all. Its just embarrassing. The PLP needs to set up alternative spokesmen and an alternative whipping operation so that the loyal opposition have a position on anything important. Ed's fatal mistake was to keep a blank sheet of paper for too long but at least he didn't write contradictory things on it in crayon.

Corbyn, Does. Not. Care.

His only interest is the wider Labour party and controlling it. For that reason, some of those who want to stop him believe that it helps him if they are seen to walk away. Much better, they believe, is to force him to fire them. I can see the logic. But what it tells us is that just about everyone in Labour has given up on seriously seeking power for the next decade at least.

I agree that Corbyn does not care and seems totally lacking in self awareness. What I find astonishing is that there are so few in the Party that do seem to care. Where are the latter day Gaitskell's willing to "fight, fight and fight again for the party" they love?

If they do not exist Labour may not just have written off the next election or the one after that. This could become an extinction event.

MaxPB said:

Excellent decision by Dave. No chance of the party splitting after the referendum now, whatever the result.

MikeK said:

Good morning all.

I hate to say it, but I will: it looks like SA are coming back at UK and may even overtake them by close of play today. That shows how unsound the early declaration by Cook was.

Scott_P said:

@cathynewman: It's suggested @MichaelDugher is the only sacking. #nightoftheshortknives

SouthamObserver said:

Leading a referendum campaign involves a lot of debating and in-depth interviews. Boris is not keen on either. I expect he'll make the odd pronouncement and write a few columns. I'd be very surprised if he spearheaded anything. It's not his style.

Scott_P said:

@hopisen: Why sacking @MichaelDugher dumb even for Corbyn-
1. Displacement sacking
2. Obvious pop at Watson
3. Swaps his irrelevant job for open enemy

Scott_P said:

@hopisen: Why sacking @MichaelDugher dumb even for Corbyn-
1. Displacement sacking
2. Obvious pop at Watson
3. Swaps his irrelevant job for open enemy

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/04/indian-english-phrases-indianisms-english-americanisms-vocabulary?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Following on from last nights discussion of accents and dialect, this is an interesting article on Indian Idioms. I have had many letters asking me to "do the needful".

English is an evolving languge, and an increasingly international one.

Very good! Anyone who's lived among diverse yet English-speaking communities will notice various phrases that come into use from the different cultures. In Arab countries if you need something done today, then "today itself" is the phrase to use, as "today" appears to mean a period of time somewhere in the future. "Today insh'allah" means not today, not tomorrow and probably not next week either!

"Insh' allah" is a very useful phrase, and its implications are very useful when discussing different treatment options. The phrase carries the clear implication that things may not work out as planned.

"You will get a date shortly for the procedure, Insh' allah!"

There is also the implication that you have no control over whether it happens or not. A recognition that we are just cogs in a bigger system.

Scott_P said:

@hopisen: Why sacking @MichaelDugher dumb even for Corbyn-
1. Displacement sacking
2. Obvious pop at Watson
3. Swaps his irrelevant job for open enemy

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leading a referendum campaign involves a lot of debating and in-depth interviews. Boris is not keen on either. I expect he'll make the odd pronouncement and write a few columns. I'd be very surprised if he spearheaded anything. It's not his style.

In an era of beige politicians, the most prominent outer is Farage -- unless Boris steps into the ring as he has a far larger media profile. He does not need to be the official leader, just make the odd pronouncement. See Trump, D, for examples.

MarqueeMark said:

Interesting to compare Cameron v Corbyn today. Cameron looks magnanimous, allowing his Cabinet colleagues to take a contrarian view to his own on the biggest vote of the coming year.

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/04/indian-english-phrases-indianisms-english-americanisms-vocabulary?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Following on from last nights discussion of accents and dialect, this is an interesting article on Indian Idioms. I have had many letters asking me to "do the needful".

English is an evolving languge, and an increasingly international one.

Very good! Anyone who's lived among diverse yet English-speaking communities will notice various phrases that come into use from the different cultures. In Arab countries if you need something done today, then "today itself" is the phrase to use, as "today" appears to mean a period of time somewhere in the future. "Today insh'allah" means not today, not tomorrow and probably not next week either!

"Insh' allah" is a very useful phrase, and its implications are very useful when discussing different treatment options. The phrase carries the clear implication that things may not work out as planned.

"You will get a date shortly for the procedure, Insh' allah!"

There is also the implication that you have no control over whether it happens or not. A recognition that we are just cogs in a bigger system.

In Yemen, there were two versions of IBM:

Insha'a allah bukra mumkin (God willing tomorrow maybe)
Insha'a allah bukra ma'alaash (God willing tomorrow, oh well!/who cares?)

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see lefties are losing their minds over the times table test on twitter (try saying that 20 times quickly ;-) )

http://michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/some-can-learn-tables-some-cant.html

"High Stakes" Test - He makes it sounds like if a kid doesn't pass their times test he will be shot or something.

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see lefties are losing their minds over the times table test on twitter (try saying that 20 times quickly ;-) )

http://michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/some-can-learn-tables-some-cant.html

"High Stakes" Test - He makes it sounds like if a kid doesn't pass their times test he will be shot or something.

All my kids did their times tables at primary school. Where are they not being taught currently?

Plato_Says said:

Labour Party
Jeremy wants your questions to put directly to Cameron tomorrow. Got a good one? → https://t.co/GeJePPUU7k #pmqs https://t.co/ufrVP6neFA

MikeK said:

JohnLilburne said:

MikeK said:

Good morning all.

I hate to say it, but I will: it looks like SA are coming back at UK and may even overtake them by close of play today. That shows how unsound the early declaration by Cook was.

Rubbish. SA may be playing well, England badly or the pitch doing nothing (or any permutation of those) but a declaration at 600+ is in no way early

It's a matter of psychology. If Cook had declared at teatime - just 20± minutes ahead - England would have been refreshed, bowled better as the days heat was beginning to wane, and probably got a couple of early wickets.

chestnut said:

So, Dugher, the right honourable member for Oop North, has been usurped by Barry Gardiner, another member of the London North Party.

Gardiner - Brent
Corbyn - Islington
Abbott - Hackney
McDonnell - Hayes

Must be space for Thornberry (Islington) and Osamor (Edmonton).

Policy to focus on railways (London Tube prices) and Housing (London rent prices) and appeasing all those terrorists in the middle east ( that's NE London Walthamstow and SE London Lewisham in their video enterprises out in Syria).

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see lefties are losing their minds over the times table test on twitter (try saying that 20 times quickly ;-) )

http://michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/some-can-learn-tables-some-cant.html

"High Stakes" Test - He makes it sounds like if a kid doesn't pass their times test he will be shot or something.

All my kids did their times tables at primary school. Where are they not being taught currently?

I believe all the blobist lefties are getting their knickers in a twist that kids will be tested on this, and that it is totally unfair because some kids can't learn them and its too much pressure and they are irrelevant and and and and and...

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see lefties are losing their minds over the times table test on twitter (try saying that 20 times quickly ;-) )

http://michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/some-can-learn-tables-some-cant.html

"High Stakes" Test - He makes it sounds like if a kid doesn't pass their times test he will be shot or something.

All my kids did their times tables at primary school. Where are they not being taught currently?

I believe all the blobist lefties are getting their knickers in a twist that kids will be tested on this, and that it is totally unfair because some kids can't learn them and its too much pressure and they are irrelevant and and and and and...

They're tested on it currently. It's almost as if the government has created a canard designed solely to wind certain people up and some on the left have fallen for it hook, line and sinker.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

MikeK said:

JohnLilburne said:

MikeK said:

Good morning all.

I hate to say it, but I will: it looks like SA are coming back at UK and may even overtake them by close of play today. That shows how unsound the early declaration by Cook was.

Rubbish. SA may be playing well, England badly or the pitch doing nothing (or any permutation of those) but a declaration at 600+ is in no way early

It's a matter of psychology. If Cook had declared at teatime - just 20± minutes ahead - England would have been refreshed, bowled better as the days heat was beginning to wane, and probably got a couple of early wickets.

England have dropped too many catches. That is the problem. As is the lack of a decent spinner. If we could find one of those we'd be on the way to having a very good team.

In an ideal world we would also have a rip snorting fast bowler and / or a left armer. But their aint many of the former about these days.

In Tests, Moeen Ali has a better strike rate than Graeme Swann (56.9 v 60.1), and we consider Swann our finest spinner in the last 40 years.

Pulpstar said:

One sacking ?!

Is that it.

Seriously, what a damp squib of a reshuffle.

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Interesting to compare Cameron v Corbyn today. Cameron looks magnanimous, allowing his Cabinet colleagues to take a contrarian view to his own on the biggest vote of the coming year.

As evidenced by Cameron's decision to impose a 3-line whip on whether we should take part in the war in Syria?

Luckyguy1983 said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with that. My beef is with people such as NickP who believe that a hard-leftist such as Jeremy Corbyn is the solution and see him as an innocent naïf intent on only doing good and promoting discussion when he has spentd himself since becoming leader with anti-Western advisers who actively campaigned against Labour in the not-too-distant past.

The starting point on the radical left on foreign policy has always been a scepticism about the splendours of the Western alliance and a willingness to give a sympathetic hearing to Third World people with a grievance - it goes right back to people like Nehru and Nkrumah and the elusive and ultimately unsuccessful search for a credible global third way. It doesn't mean they necessarily agree with them, and Corbyn has said repeatedly that he disagrees with Hamas and Hezbollah. (In some cases it extended to sympathy for Soviet communism, which isn't one of the things that Corbyn has ever nourished.)

You've consistently seen this as entirely beyond the pale and it seems to be the touchstone for you, much more than say the anti-austerity policies. I don't (and I see the Western alliance historically as necessary in e.g. Korea but not a consistent force for good), and see your preoccupation with this aspect as a bit obsessive, though I do see that it produces a history with contacts that are awkward if you suddenly become party leader. Perhaps that, more than naivete, is the area where we differ?

If you can produce a few Corbyn speeches that focus on the disagreements he has with terrorist sympathisers it would be helpful. I'd also like to see his repudiations of Stop the War's rhetoric around ISIS being like the International Brigades, as well as its calls for Iraqis to kill British soldiers. Ditto for Ken, John and Dianne, and the other members of the hard left Jezza has chosen to surround himself with since he became leader. In calling you naïve, Nick, I hope you understand I am giving you the benefit of the doubt.

Entirely unjustified sanctimony, given that other party's leaders are and have been heavily involved with repressive regimes and exporters of terror, and have given de facto material assistance to terrorists in the Middle East. Jezza's terrorists are just not 'our' terrorists. It's more of a novelty than a disgrace.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

MikeK said:

JohnLilburne said:

MikeK said:

Good morning all.

I hate to say it, but I will: it looks like SA are coming back at UK and may even overtake them by close of play today. That shows how unsound the early declaration by Cook was.

Rubbish. SA may be playing well, England badly or the pitch doing nothing (or any permutation of those) but a declaration at 600+ is in no way early

It's a matter of psychology. If Cook had declared at teatime - just 20± minutes ahead - England would have been refreshed, bowled better as the days heat was beginning to wane, and probably got a couple of early wickets.

England have dropped too many catches. That is the problem. As is the lack of a decent spinner. If we could find one of those we'd be on the way to having a very good team.

In an ideal world we would also have a rip snorting fast bowler and / or a left armer. But their aint many of the former about these days.

In Tests, Moeen Ali has a better strike rate than Graeme Swann (56.9 v 60.1), and we consider Swann our finest spinner in the last 40 years.

You are wrong my dear old thing - Moeen's test strike rate is 61.18.

Moeen has 1 5 fer in 21 tests

Swanny had 17 (!) in 60 tests.

Like comparing a Lada with a BMW.

Plato_Says said:

Ooh err

Ross Hawkins
Emily Thornberry and Sadiq Khan head towards Corbyn's office