politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s ratings tumble could impact on who runs the LEAVE
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s ratings tumble could impact on who runs the LEAVE campaign
While all the focus of late had been on Corbyn’s LAB another big political decision which could have huge consequences is so far unresolved. Who is going to lead and be the public voice of the LEAVE campaign?
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UKIP failed last May not because of the electoral system but because in 649/650 seats UKIP failed to come first. Come the referendum we won't have a bizarre prizes for losers electoral system but an all or nothing straight choice. Either come fist nation wide or you lost that is the only way to win the referendum.
What the *#%=@? He's now looks even weaker than he did yesterday, and I didn't think that was possible.
Let the Leave supporters from the other main parties make the case to their own people (the Hoeys and Hannans for now, probably a few more from Lab and Con once the campaign starts).
Six months ago, I thought Farage was a busted flush who had done an amazing job taking UKIP to 15%, but could take it - or the Brexit cause - no further.
But three things have made me change my mind:
1. Farage is still a fabulous advocate of Out. Go and rewatch the debates between him and Clegg. He is brilliant and ruthless. No-one else (not Kate Hoey, Douglas Carswell or Dan Hannan) articulates the case like he does.
2. Turnout is not going to be as high as at the general election. On this board, we're all fanatics. Not everyone is. In a 50% turnout referendum - which is entirely possible - motivating the base is going to be at least as important as convincing the undecided.
3. Immigration is still the hot button issue. Yes, I am far more open to people working across Europe without paperwork, without regulation, and without restrictions than most on the BOO side. But immigration concerns are a much greater issue than abstract concepts as sovereignty. Farage understands this.
"A wall that Mexico will pay for."
I have one serious question: how does Donald Trump plan on making the Mexicans pay for the wall?
"Senor Trump, you have asked us to spend tens of billions of dollars building a wall. Our response is best articulated by that given in the British case of Arkell vs Pressdram."
But yes, the Arkell vs Pressdram response is what would be expected from Señor Mexican President!
Interesting to see your about-turn on Farage. I think he has a place in the campaign but the leader needs to be more generally likeable. Agree completely that they need to have mastered the brief and arguments though, Clegg got a thorough beating in that debate.
Following on from last nights discussion of accents and dialect, this is an interesting article on Indian Idioms. I have had many letters asking me to "do the needful".
English is an evolving languge, and an increasingly international one.
*buys shares in popcorn makers*
Am I alone in wondering what a webcam would see as David Cameron reads the news, hour by hour?
Labour are stuffed.
His spinners and George are probably working out if there's any bad news they can release today, as no-one in the media will care about reporting it.
"You will get a date shortly for the procedure, Insh' allah!"
There is also the implication that you have no control over whether it happens or not. A recognition that we are just cogs in a bigger system.
In theory, there doesn't need to be a single leader: there wasn't in 1975 on either side (though arguably Heath came to dominate In, simply because of the energy he was prepared to commit). In practice, there'll be debates demanded and staged and someone has to step up to the plate, literally. And Farage will expect that to be him. He leads the party whose whole existence is to get Britain out of the EU; a party which finished third in the last GE and top in the last EP election. It's what his entire political career has been about.
And yet he's a divisive figure. Does that matter if his points have resonance anyway - it's not an election after all: you can back the position without the man? Well, yes, it does. Some people will vote Remain just because they don't like Farage (just as some will vote Leave because they don't like Cameron or want to cause the Tories trouble). But is there a better option? Not unless some very senior and widely-respected person comes out for Leave.
Even if they do, though, Farage will still fight for the job. Why wouldn't he? And there will be an instinct in any Tory to avoid having to go head-to-head with the PM. The instinct may not be strong enough to prevent it but it'll be a pull all the same. To have Conservatives leading both sides will both muddy the debate (as there'll be a whole Tory infighting meme running throughout), and damage the party. It would, ideally, be better for a Labour politician to lead but there's no-one who holds the opinion who could.
Which defaults back to Farage, for lack of a better option. But all this will take months to play out; months that could have been spent organising and campaigning.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farages-volvo-hadnt-been-7115944#
The Mirror is now claiming that the car hadn't been recalled.
So the reshuffle looks set to be pointless (on yet another level) if Benn stays on.
Punters should perhaps also note that betting against UKIP has been a nice little earner for a long time, and likely to continue to be so.
Tell you what INNERS, put your best man up against Nigel in a TV debate on the EU and let's see the outcome. I'd fallen for the nonsense that he alienated too many people, I've decided they're now running scared.
To clarify, I don't believe he's the best man to lead the Out campaign, but in any circumstances he'll play a prominent part.
I believe turnout will be low and that the more motivated side will win, complacency is IN's biggest enemy.
Wasn't the whole point of the reshuffle to punish Benn for defying the leader on a free vote?
If he's forced to keep Benn in place then the whole thing is a farce, and several news cycles have been devoted to what a disorganised shambles the whole party is - without them actually going through with the reorganisation.
Armani Iannucci must be finding it all most perplexing, as real life is more farcical than the satire.
"Lets be brutally honest, those are not the only nuts to come loose in the UKIP camp!"
Harsh but fair.
I mean, I can sort of understand why he thought it less than optimal to have his shadow foreign secretary completely disagreeing with him on the floor of the HoC and getting applause from the Tories. But to then find, after you have started and briefed the media that you are going to do something about it, that you simply cannot form a shadow cabinet unless you leave him in place is truly spectacular.
What I cannot get is why anyone vaguely serious wants to be in his shadow cabinet at all. Its just embarrassing. The PLP needs to set up alternative spokesmen and an alternative whipping operation so that the loyal opposition have a position on anything important. Ed's fatal mistake was to keep a blank sheet of paper for too long but at least he didn't write contradictory things on it in crayon.
Leave need someone who can reach the undecided. Nigel Farage has never looked like that man. He should be used to rally the base, not to win converts.
And I think you're wrong to (1) lump all politicians together and (2) claim that Farage's 'evangelical following' will be relevant.
It's true that no politician is well loved. It's not true to say that they're all disliked equally, either in breadth or in depth. On the second point, UKIP scored well in 2015 mainly as a not-the-others party. It wasn't pro-Farage; it was anti-Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.
His only interest is the wider Labour party and controlling it. For that reason, some of those who want to stop him believe that it helps him if they are seen to walk away. Much better, they believe, is to force him to fire them. I can see the logic. But what it tells us is that just about everyone in Labour has given up on seriously seeking power for the next decade at least.
On a different note, the Flying Scotsman had a pressure test yesterday, will be interesting to see if it does get back on the rails this week.
If they do not exist Labour may not just have written off the next election or the one after that. This could become an extinction event.
2) If he was that smitten with the reporter's charms he could have waited the 30 seconds until the interview was over to ask her out.
It was a bit disrespectful to someone doing her job. That said, it's the biggest storm in a teacup of the year so far. I wish I could say that being asked out on a date is the worst indignity I'd suffered in my professional career.
I mean, it's not even an LMS locomotive, just one of those inferior LNER types...
"Benn,I want you out"
"Not going"
"Oh, alright then"
Farage is an asset for Remain. Leave should lock him in a shed for the next few years.
F1: apparently, in a bid to lose the last few viewers, the first race of the season will have a start time of... 2am, UK time.
https://twitter.com/superlicense/status/684154031615389696
Farage simply has too much baggage and is too easily caricatured to be a unifying figure for Leave to gather around. No matter how effective he may be or how much he may thrill us on PB debating vs Dan Hannan.
The reason for this is that the race can last up to 4 hours, so has to start at least that long before sunset - they have done the same with a number of races in the past year or two.
Labour are floundering in almost every respect. He.is.awful. and he's made himself (somehow) look even weaker.
@bbclaurak: Corbyn's office said last night no final decisions taken but seems that moves will be extremely limited, despite three weeks of frenzy...
@bbclaurak: One shad cabinet member, 'it was all on, and then it was all off again'
Mr. Sandpit, hmm, cheers for that (surprised he made the mistake though, he's from Melbourne). I do remember the start time stuff from last year (a few races kicked off at 5am).
I daresay NPXMPMPMPXX and other born-again Corbynites will be along to say: "he's listening to his MPs," or somesuch. But you don't match the army up to the top of the hill only to march them down again.
He should have worked out whether he could get what he wanted (at least the big posts) well before a reshuffle. Not doing so just makes you look incompetent and impotent.
There were some interesting posts the other day about the characteristics of a good leader. Corbyn is most certainly not a good leader.
Malasiya and Korea were always the worst ones, as its in monsoon season and they needed to finish before the daily washout.
Malaysia and Singapore are back-to-back this year, which will screw with everyone's body clock - the cities are one hour apart by plane and on the same line of latitude, but the races are 8 hours apart by timing - in Singapore everyone stays on UK time for the night race.
I seem to dimly recall that Blair wasn't very good at reshuffles. Is Corbyn a Blairite? Why doesn't he f-off and join the Tories?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Borough, I said that, when Kuenssberg[sp] was on the news saying reshuffles were difficult.
Cameron's seem to go smoothly, possibly because he only has them when he has to, or every few years.
It's an interesting one. There are two kinds of Corbynite - the hard leftists, such as Livingstone, Abbott and McDonnell (and Corbyn himself) who see him as a means to take Labour over, and the wide-eyed useful idiots who see him much as NickP does, a doe-eyed, gentle man of principle who wants only to bring a kinder, gentler form of politics to Labour and the UK generally. There are a lot more of the latter than the former, so that is where the battle has to be fought. Hence the reluctance of people like Hillary Ben just to walk away.
Ken Livingstone tells @bbc5live he doesn't beleive Jeremy Corbyn ever planned to get rid of Hilary Benn #reshuffle
Corbyn's barely been there three months, and the unwillingness of people such as Benn to move only shows up the leader's lack of authority in being able to make the changes he wants.
Oh, and if you ever get the opportunity, go to Singapore to watch the night race. The best sporting event I've ever attended by a mile. It's a wonderful city and the whole place comes alive for the weekend. I've not been to Monaco though, I imagine that would be the same but even more expensive!
Meanwhile, Docs are talking to themselves on fb.
This might, finally, make the public realise that the staff in the NHS are often part of the problem with it.
I'm not sure that the vast majority of public sector workers understand the change in working practices, pay and pensions that the private sector have gone through in the last few years.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/04/jeremy-corbyn-reshuffle-labour-party-past-george-lansbury
As for me, Rottenborough sums up what I think more succinctly than I've done, so I'll leave it at that for now.
And cue Ken...
"We regret to announce the following layoffs, which I will read in alphabetical order:
Eagle, Maria.
That is all" https://t.co/LTREvqCdYp
I do wonder how stupid Ken thinks we all are. Very apparently. After the famous Seamus press operation completely derailed (literally) Labour's only good policy announcement for months yesterday with rolling coverage of a reshuffle that didn't happen, I was curious how they could surpass themselves today.
And cue Ken...
The May elections, perhaps the English locals will be crucial. If there is a collapse everywhere then a summer leadership challenge would be viable.
Indeed even if the results are more lacklustre than disaster, that is the only viable time for a challenge.
"It's an interesting one. There are two kinds of Corbynite - the hard leftists, such as Livingstone, Abbott and McDonnell (and Corbyn himself) who see him as a means to take Labour over, and the wide-eyed useful idiots who see him much as NickP does, a doe-eyed, gentle man of principle who wants only to bring a kinder, gentler form of politics to Labour and the UK generally. There are a lot more of the latter than the former, so that is where the battle has to be fought."
Interesting how quickly this metamorphosis has happened. I'm even noticing a new breed of aggressive Labour women not heard since the 70's with names like Joss Kat and Spike...
......must be escaping the floods in Hebden Bridge
Will the reshuffle that never was do the same for Jezza?
His sympathies leaked out all over his reports.
They had an outstanding local candidate there, a potential leader in 10 years' time maybe, replace a longstanding and well liked MP who died in office. With hindsight the result was as expected, not some massive victory for Corbyn and his fellow travellers, as they would like to have us all believe.
Absolutely cackhanded and weak. Still, they've knobbled Danzcuk in the most improbable way.
Those 12% will almost certainly all vote out anyway no matter who leads the campaign so the trick for Leave has to be to pick a figurehead who can appeal to a wider audience. Farage, for all his speaking ability, has too much baggage and cannot be that person.
Incidently I see that 6 more of the 2015 new Tory intake have said they will campaign to Leave over the last 24 hours.
.@MattChorley off to a flying start as @timesredbox supremo https://t.co/aURpPqhhkB
If no reshuffle were planned, all Corbyn had to do was say "There's no reshuffle" instead of "TRAINS!"
I think this is the problem. You may look at Corbyn and see a principled man with essential decency. I look at him and see a man whose 'principles' are far from essentially decent.
Perhaps you could explain his 'principles' and 'essential decency'?