politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decision

Makes sense. Can kicking is a venerable tradition in government of course, and this one does seem to be doing its best to master it.

The can kicking over Heathrow is shorely more to do with Zac rather than EUREF ?

Harry Smith
The Greys have it - Pollers admit they got 2015 election wrong by ignoring the views of pensioners - via @Telegraph https://t.co/Z15tYcIhqv

Two major polling companies – YouGov and ICM – have admitted they relied too heavily on a relative over-representation of politically engaged young voters in their polling analysis.

Polling companies have admitted that they failed to predict the result of last year’s general election because they did not listen enough to the views of elderly people, many of whom are more likely to vote Conservative.

MikeK said:

FPT.
The MikeK political predictions for 2016.

1. Dave will delay EU referendum until early 2017 after polls in May show LEAVE with 4% lead

2. Farage will resign Leadership of UKIP in March or April 2016

3. Corbyn suffers ill health June and guess who takes over the leadership?

4. The Donald wins in Iowa by a hair and handsomely in New Hampshire.

5. EU closes most of it's borders. Merkel is smothered.

Edit: My crystal Ball is too fogged up to predict the London Mayors race.

I would be interested in some odds on any or all of these!

Tim Montgomerie is a pretty poor pundit, particularly on anything concerning either Cameron or the EU

EPG said:

Pulpstar said:

The can kicking over Heathrow is shorely more to do with Zac rather than EUREF ?

No-one cares about the London mayoralty relative to EUref. If anything, Zac win may hasten Corb out, which hurts Cam.

Well Corbyn is popular in the N.E., N.W., Wales and London.
Also Crosby can't play his identity politics in London because the minorities are a majority.
And in the end London's economic development favour radical leftists, especially the strong decline in home ownership not to mention social tensions created by sky high economic inequality and local price inflation.
Not to forget Khan's a muslim in a city with a very large muslim population.

So adding all the above, it's logical that Khan at least is leading in the polls.

Turning to identity politics, this is ridiculous, Trump & family countdown 2016 on a Fox News special in N.Y:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z1zAKd1-xo&feature=youtu.be

Can you imagine any other candidate getting that much promotion by the media?

I take Montie's opinion as seriously as Eddie Izzard's campaigning nous.

Plato_Says said:

I take Montie's opinion as seriously as Eddie Izzard's campaigning nous.

Never forget that Eddie won Scotland for "No".

Happy New Year!

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

MikeK said:

MikeSmithson said:

MikeK said:

FPT.
The MikeK political predictions for 2016.

1. Dave will delay EU referendum until early 2017 after polls in May show LEAVE with 4% lead

2. Farage will resign Leadership of UKIP in March or April 2016

3. Corbyn suffers ill health June and guess who takes over the leadership?

4. The Donald wins in Iowa by a hair and handsomely in New Hampshire.

5. EU closes most of it's borders. Merkel is smothered.

Edit: My crystal Ball is too fogged up to predict the London Mayors race.

What happened to the 50+ MPs that you predicted UKIP were going to win at GE2015?

That was when I was reading the cards, now I'm using my crystal ball. Very different.

But just as wrong, 4) may be half right, all others are wrong.

Quite.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

People are questing his true Tory credentials? Bodes well for him as Cameron's potential successor then.

Correction to Montgomerie's post: he refers to the way Osborne has "cut defence, the police ..." - but against expectations he announce no further cuts to the Police and that defence will remain at 2% of GDP.

In one way this further goes towards Montgomerie's point if he wasn't so blinkered - the proposed cuts to the Police were unpopular so were cancelled. But he's still talking as if Osborne is slashing the spending on that as its a hobby horse for him.

Lots of treats from the magic money tree for pensioners too - the people most likely to vote and to be receptive to an Out message.

Foxinsox's predictions for the year:

1) LDs to do encouragingly well in the Locals, but badly in Scotland where they are too close to the SCon position.

2) Labour to form a minority govt in Wales, with UKIP to flop. Plaid and LDs in the doldrums here.

3) SCons to push SLab into 3rd place, as part of the absorption of all the other Unionist parties continues.

4) Zac to flop in London. Lab to also do well in the London Assembly.

5) September Brexit referendum to be won comfortably by remain. That 8/1 for 60-65% by Shadsy is tasty.

6) There to be a coup attempt against Corbyn, which he sees off leaving both factions looking weaker. No other party leader to change.

7) Clinton to beat Cruz comfortably in November.

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

A point that the article doesn't mention is that the possible shift towards taxing pension contributions but not taxing pensions would be spectacularly popular among grey voters, who would have had their tax-free cake and now see it miraculously reappear to be eaten. Osborne is such a political Chancellor that it's not impossible, though it would be a huge and logically indefensible bung.

Indeed, we need to encourage people to make more contributions for their retirement and not less

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

A final prediction. The China slowdown worsens and growth slows worldwide. I think that Osborne senses this too so needs to get the books better balanced by defacto tax increases on middle incomes.

These plans of Osbornes (if true) are a sign of weakness and fear rather than strength.

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

Truly, I hope Osborne will crash and burn.

Not quite sure why someone who has committed a triple murder is allowed out of prison. Especially after he supposedly threatened to kill a family he had worked for whilst on day release.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3381214/Notorious-police-killer-Harry-Roberts-killed-three-officers-Shepherd-s-Bush-strolls-high-street-carrying-errands-buying-milk-op.html

surbiton said:

@Plato

More

YouGov found that the party underestimated Tory support by 3.7 points and overestimated Labour by 2.8 points because of an excess of politically engaged young respondents.

-------------

Anthony Wells [ UKPR ] wrote about this 2 weeks back.

Something we all need to keep in mind as we look at new polls is that they are in the process of adjustment - I believe YouGov and ComRes have done so, but I'm not sure that others have. That makes polls non-comparable with polls at the same stage of e.g. the 2010-2015 cycle. To take the YouGov example, if they have fully compensated then they will, other things being equal, show an improved Tory lead by a margin of 6.5 points.

This affects both our assessment of how everyone is doing compared with history (for instance, it ceases to be true that governments have always lost ground by the end of their first year) as well as any betting on results like the Mayoral vote (because we risk double counting by taking the new method that picks up Tories better while still allowing for a shy Tory bonus).

What would be really useful on a non-partisan basis would be if someone could review what each pollster has done or has said they will do to correct.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

A final prediction. The China slowdown worsens and growth slows worldwide. I think that Osborne senses this too so needs to get the books better balanced by defacto tax increases on middle incomes.

These plans of Osbornes (if true) are a sign of weakness and fear rather than strength.

Perhaps but better to be prepared if that does come about

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

Truly, I hope Osborne will crash and burn.

As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader though he remains relatively secure

Incidentally, Twitter users, I've just begun a parody account for Sir Edric (https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska). Hard to say how often it'll be used, but it'll just be general mockery, and enable me to use some lines that don't work in a medieval fantasy world.

surbiton said:

MikeK said:

MikeSmithson said:

MikeK said:

FPT.
The MikeK political predictions for 2016.

1. Dave will delay EU referendum until early 2017 after polls in May show LEAVE with 4% lead

2. Farage will resign Leadership of UKIP in March or April 2016

3. Corbyn suffers ill health June and guess who takes over the leadership?

4. The Donald wins in Iowa by a hair and handsomely in New Hampshire.

5. EU closes most of it's borders. Merkel is smothered.

Edit: My crystal Ball is too fogged up to predict the London Mayors race.

What happened to the 50+ MPs that you predicted UKIP were going to win at GE2015?

That was when I was reading the cards, now I'm using my crystal ball. Very different.

It is quite possible that UKIP may have 0 MPs at the end of this parliament. Carswell may go home after the ref.

I wouldn't be devastated if this happened.

Mr. 1983, Conservatives would be daft to take Carswell back. They've set a good precedent for defections to UKIP [from a blue perspective], and just letting Carswell return would provide a safety net for those contemplating defection. Better for them to think of Reckless' fate.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1983, Conservatives would be daft to take Carswell back. They've set a good precedent for defections to UKIP [from a blue perspective], and just letting Carswell return would provide a safety net for those contemplating defection. Better for them to think of Reckless' fate.

Yes, there is that view.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, aim is to be equal opportunities as far as deriding politics goes. The new alcohol guidelines story has already provided an obvious line.

Oh, pish and tish! Being equal means heaping as much scorn onto good people proposing sensible policies (such as firing idiots into the Sun from giant space cannons) as that poured over busy-body cretins who come up with complete nonsense (like not drinking for arbitrary periods). Equality is a daft idea normally only resorted to by weak willed ninnies.

Mr. Llama, I meant non-partisan, of course.

One is shocked and appalled you'd ever think Sir Edric might have ill judgement.

3 halves of beer

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, aim is to be equal opportunities as far as deriding politics goes. The new alcohol guidelines story has already provided an obvious line.

I know I'm taking a reckless guess at this point, but I presume that the new guidelines are more, rather than less, restrictive.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, I meant non-partisan, of course.

One is shocked and appalled you'd ever think Sir Edric might have ill judgement.

Of course I don't think that. Sir Edric is in many ways the Acme of the English, what young Englishmen should aspire to become. That said he is not perfect as demonstrated by his lust for that bloody Elf, Lysandra.

@Sean_F

The doctors are now, supposedly, saying we should abstain two days a week. Never heard such nonsense. I am going to ask my medicus which days he will be choosing, I don't anticipate a straight answer.

If there’s one part of the UK that probably wasn’t waking up with a pounding headache and a sense of regret this morning, it was Foula, a Shetland Island that has yet to celebrate Christmas or New Year.
The residents of Foula celebrate the festive season according to the old Julian calendar, which means Christmas, or ‘Yule’ falls on 6 January and New Year’s Day falls on 13 January.


Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2016/01/01/theres-a-place-in-britain-that-still-hasnt-celebrated-christmas-or-new-year-5595838/#ixzz3w0wjaC8t

Mr. F, one of the beta readers did compare the two, although I've never actually read a Flashman book [and now I can't, because any coincidence is just that, but if I read them and see similarities I'll feel like I'm copying].

Mr. F (2), indeed. Puritans shrieking with delight as they get a new round of ordering everyone else about.

Plato_Says said:

3 halves of beer

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, aim is to be equal opportunities as far as deriding politics goes. The new alcohol guidelines story has already provided an obvious line.

I know I'm taking a reckless guess at this point, but I presume that the new guidelines are more, rather than less, restrictive.

The 3 halves thingy.
That is per hour you spend in the pub?
Seems quite reasonable to me.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Just how much of a Tory is George Osborne

George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget

'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html

Truly, I hope Osborne will crash and burn.

Do you see the picture of the 'middle class' that the telegraph chooses to use with this story? Shows what the telegraph thinks of its readers.
And do you see who is writing this article? Jeremy Warner? Ha - that dope?
And in any event his article is all about a 'pensions ISA'.
Only in the last sentence does he speculate without evidence that instead of this Osborne may simply cut tax relief to the basic 20%. Well why not... it gives the telegraph a spectacular headline and it ignores other measures that might be in the next budget measures that might give back some of this 30bn (if it ever happened).
And double whamy it gets you and HYUDF all worked into a lather as well.

Evening all.

The Airport delay is due to the Mayoral elections and bugger all to do with the EU Ref. Basically the usual bollox from Montie.

Plato_Says said:

Worthy of Bruegel, so much going on.

Startling to think that this will be the image on the new £10 note https://t.co/bQx1B1Mzqu

Nah ...this one.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/01/01/16/2FB9B2BC00000578-3381257-image-a-3_1451665502065.jpg

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, I meant non-partisan, of course.

One is shocked and appalled you'd ever think Sir Edric might have ill judgement.

Of course I don't think that. Sir Edric is in many ways the Acme of the English, what young Englishmen should aspire to become. That said he is not perfect as demonstrated by his lust for that bloody Elf, Lysandra.

@Sean_F

The doctors are now, supposedly, saying we should abstain two days a week. Never heard such nonsense. I am going to ask my medicus which days he will be choosing, I don't anticipate a straight answer.

Isn't Sir Edric basically Sir Harry Flashman, in a different time and place?

Sort of, Mr. F, but without the naughty bits. They are both examples of the archetypal English hero who has starred in literature for centuries.

I always love the blurb for the first Flashman novel:-

"Can a man who is expelled from Rugby School as a drunken bully,
Who wantonly seduces his father's mistress,
Who lies, cheats, and proves a coward on the battlefield.....

Be all bad?"

His only failing is that he cheated at cricket.

All the rest is fair game, but cheating at cricket, well that just isn't cricket sir....and we have to take a very dim view of it.

Sad news about Natalie Cole:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI7pr9HUWuQ

BREAKING NEWS: Soldiers open fire on car as it tried to ram mosque TWICE in France with bullets wounding driver, passenger and a nearby worshipper

The attacker had twice rammed his car - which was registered in Savoie, a department to the east - into the four soldiers guarding the mosque.

The mosque's spokesman Abdallah Imam Dliouah said the driver, who was 'unknown to the mosque', tried to deliberately slam into the four soldiers who were 'responsible for protecting' it.

-----

Bit of a weird report, was the guy really trying to ram the mosque or was he trying to get the soldiers. Reading between the lines, the quote from the mosque spokesman suggests that the perp was perhaps somebody who might look like they attend the mosque.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, I meant non-partisan, of course.

One is shocked and appalled you'd ever think Sir Edric might have ill judgement.

Of course I don't think that. Sir Edric is in many ways the Acme of the English, what young Englishmen should aspire to become. That said he is not perfect as demonstrated by his lust for that bloody Elf, Lysandra.

@Sean_F

The doctors are now, supposedly, saying we should abstain two days a week. Never heard such nonsense. I am going to ask my medicus which days he will be choosing, I don't anticipate a straight answer.

Isn't Sir Edric basically Sir Harry Flashman, in a different time and place?

Sort of, Mr. F, but without the naughty bits. They are both examples of the archetypal English hero who has starred in literature for centuries.

I always love the blurb for the first Flashman novel:-

"Can a man who is expelled from Rugby School as a drunken bully,
Who wantonly seduces his father's mistress,
Who lies, cheats, and proves a coward on the battlefield.....

Be all bad?"

His only failing is that he cheated at cricket.

All the rest is fair game, but cheating at cricket, well that just isn't cricket sir....and we have to take a very dim view of it.

It's his one important failing, but then, nobody is perfect.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, don't do that! I don't want to copy or seem to copy his shenanigans.

When Temple and Treasure get released later this year I hope you give it a shot.

Will do. My wife's just been given a kindle, so I'll be able to read it.

Mr. F, thanks. Hard copies will also be released

Speaking of technology, did you see about the Scio scanner? It's a bloody tricorder. Except it's real. And smaller than a deck of cards.

http://news.sky.com/story/1615005/diet-scanners-to-be-fitted-in-smartphones

Odd world we're living in, with rules on killer robots, VR, and now this.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Plato_Says said:

3 halves of beer

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, aim is to be equal opportunities as far as deriding politics goes. The new alcohol guidelines story has already provided an obvious line.

I know I'm taking a reckless guess at this point, but I presume that the new guidelines are more, rather than less, restrictive.

The 3 halves thingy.
That is per hour you spend in the pub?
Seems quite reasonable to me.

In the case of the recently deceased Lemme, that would be 3 halves of vodka per hour....

On topic, Tim Montgomerie? This Tim Montgomerie?

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/21/to-start-christmas-week-a-contender-for-the-tweet-exchange-of-the-year/

ThreeQuidder said:

Plato_Says said:

3 halves of beer

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, aim is to be equal opportunities as far as deriding politics goes. The new alcohol guidelines story has already provided an obvious line.

I know I'm taking a reckless guess at this point, but I presume that the new guidelines are more, rather than less, restrictive.

I imagine the point of these new recommendations is to be so laughable as to bring the whole concept of having recommended amounts into disrepute.

Actually it's 3 pints.

You will just have to drink the top three half's of the three pints to get to the bottom three half's which is where your daily allowance resides.