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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day
Airport delay. Tax cred Uturn. Slower cuts… Me for @CapX on No10's pre-referendum campaign https://t.co/mXTlrvH2nz pic.twitter.com/xkRM6je9xo
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The MikeK political predictions for 2016.
1. Dave will delay EU referendum until early 2017 after polls in May show LEAVE with 4% lead
2. Farage will resign Leadership of UKIP in March or April 2016
3. Corbyn suffers ill health June and guess who takes over the leadership?
4. The Donald wins in Iowa by a hair and handsomely in New Hampshire.
5. EU closes most of it's borders. Merkel is smothered.
Edit: My crystal Ball is too fogged up to predict the London Mayors race.
Gunman in action.
https://web.archive.org/web/20091230061832/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
(And I note that the Independent has now got so embarrassed by that article they've taken it down!)
The Greys have it - Pollers admit they got 2015 election wrong by ignoring the views of pensioners - via @Telegraph https://t.co/Z15tYcIhqv
Tim Montgomerie is a pretty poor pundit, particularly on anything concerning either Cameron or the EU
Also Crosby can't play his identity politics in London because the minorities are a majority.
And in the end London's economic development favour radical leftists, especially the strong decline in home ownership not to mention social tensions created by sky high economic inequality and local price inflation.
Not to forget Khan's a muslim in a city with a very large muslim population.
So adding all the above, it's logical that Khan at least is leading in the polls.
Turning to identity politics, this is ridiculous, Trump & family countdown 2016 on a Fox News special in N.Y:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z1zAKd1-xo&feature=youtu.be
Can you imagine any other candidate getting that much promotion by the media?
Good article on space and private enterprise. All I can say is; "maybe".
Happy New Year!
George Osborne is toying with the idea of removing a further £30bn in middle-class tax reliefs in his next Budget
'..It’s a strange irony: that supposedly Right-wing governments, in order to gain wider electoral appeal, find it necessary to ignore their core constituency and shift to the Left. We live in tough times, admittedly, but higher earners might reasonably think they were better off under Mr Blair, who in his own invasion of the centre ground unashamedly shifted Labour to the right and wooed them accordingly.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12076601/Just-how-much-of-a-Tory-is-George-Osborne.html
When you're wrong... Miliband: "I'd get rid of (Sir) Lynton (Crosby) if I were you. He doesn't do much for you."
https://t.co/2wtfsJUTn3
In one way this further goes towards Montgomerie's point if he wasn't so blinkered - the proposed cuts to the Police were unpopular so were cancelled. But he's still talking as if Osborne is slashing the spending on that as its a hobby horse for him.
1) LDs to do encouragingly well in the Locals, but badly in Scotland where they are too close to the SCon position.
2) Labour to form a minority govt in Wales, with UKIP to flop. Plaid and LDs in the doldrums here.
3) SCons to push SLab into 3rd place, as part of the absorption of all the other Unionist parties continues.
4) Zac to flop in London. Lab to also do well in the London Assembly.
5) September Brexit referendum to be won comfortably by remain. That 8/1 for 60-65% by Shadsy is tasty.
6) There to be a coup attempt against Corbyn, which he sees off leaving both factions looking weaker. No other party leader to change.
7) Clinton to beat Cruz comfortably in November.
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YouGov found that the party underestimated Tory support by 3.7 points and overestimated Labour by 2.8 points because of an excess of politically engaged young respondents.
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Anthony Wells [ UKPR ] wrote about this 2 weeks back.
These plans of Osbornes (if true) are a sign of weakness and fear rather than strength.
It's a daft approach by the blues. The principal opposition is also in favour. If blue were Remain and red were Leave, this would make sense.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3381214/Notorious-police-killer-Harry-Roberts-killed-three-officers-Shepherd-s-Bush-strolls-high-street-carrying-errands-buying-milk-op.html
This affects both our assessment of how everyone is doing compared with history (for instance, it ceases to be true that governments have always lost ground by the end of their first year) as well as any betting on results like the Mayoral vote (because we risk double counting by taking the new method that picks up Tories better while still allowing for a shy Tory bonus).
What would be really useful on a non-partisan basis would be if someone could review what each pollster has done or has said they will do to correct.
Startling to think that this will be the image on the new £10 note https://t.co/bQx1B1Mzqu
Lee Jasper
And here we have it. Proof positive that Twitter is totally mental. #TrollPoll https://t.co/dNVUC9SnXp
Perhaps George can restore parts of the unfair provisions in FAS and PPF. with the windfall from the fatcats.
One is shocked and appalled you'd ever think Sir Edric might have ill judgement.
I'm told the contents of this tweet are zoomtastic but I can't get past Eoin using the phrase "my humble opinion". https://t.co/OvDsACW3xn
@Sean_F
The doctors are now, supposedly, saying we should abstain two days a week. Never heard such nonsense. I am going to ask my medicus which days he will be choosing, I don't anticipate a straight answer.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-carson-idUSKBN0UE17520160101
You do wonder whether he'll even make it to Iowa at this rate. My guess would be yes, as you never know what that state might throw up via the caucus, but the odds ought to be heavily against him still being in the race come Super Tuesday.
Mr. F (2), indeed. Puritans shrieking with delight as they get a new round of ordering everyone else about.
That is per hour you spend in the pub?
Seems quite reasonable to me.
And do you see who is writing this article? Jeremy Warner? Ha - that dope?
And in any event his article is all about a 'pensions ISA'.
Only in the last sentence does he speculate without evidence that instead of this Osborne may simply cut tax relief to the basic 20%. Well why not... it gives the telegraph a spectacular headline and it ignores other measures that might be in the next budget measures that might give back some of this 30bn (if it ever happened).
And double whamy it gets you and HYUDF all worked into a lather as well.
The Airport delay is due to the Mayoral elections and bugger all to do with the EU Ref. Basically the usual bollox from Montie.
"Can a man who is expelled from Rugby School as a drunken bully,
Who wantonly seduces his father's mistress,
Who lies, cheats, and proves a coward on the battlefield.....
Be all bad?"
His only failing is that he cheated at cricket.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/01/01/16/2FB9B2BC00000578-3381257-image-a-3_1451665502065.jpg
Mr. F, that sounds (albeit in a fantasy context) strikingly similar to Sir Edric. Most of it, or similar things, happen in the first chapter of the first book
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI7pr9HUWuQ
There's nothing not to like.
The attacker had twice rammed his car - which was registered in Savoie, a department to the east - into the four soldiers guarding the mosque.
The mosque's spokesman Abdallah Imam Dliouah said the driver, who was 'unknown to the mosque', tried to deliberately slam into the four soldiers who were 'responsible for protecting' it.
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Bit of a weird report, was the guy really trying to ram the mosque or was he trying to get the soldiers. Reading between the lines, the quote from the mosque spokesman suggests that the perp was perhaps somebody who might look like they attend the mosque.
When Temple and Treasure get released later this year I hope you give it a shot.
Speaking of technology, did you see about the Scio scanner? It's a bloody tricorder. Except it's real. And smaller than a deck of cards.
http://news.sky.com/story/1615005/diet-scanners-to-be-fitted-in-smartphones
Odd world we're living in, with rules on killer robots, VR, and now this.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/21/to-start-christmas-week-a-contender-for-the-tweet-exchange-of-the-year/
Better guidance would be 'only drink real ale and single malt'. None of this wine nonsense or hipstery craft gin.
You will just have to drink the top three half's of the three pints to get to the bottom three half's which is where your daily allowance resides.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/wheres-all-the-joy-gone/