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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector
The East Coast Main Line should remain in public ownership, as it is now better run than it was when privatised and is returning profits to the Treasury
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Ministers will say that motorists living in isolated parts of Devon, Northumberland, North Yorkshire and Wales could be in line for a reduction of 5p a litre at the pumps. The scheme, similar to that already used in the Scottish islands, is designed to prevent rural drivers paying a premium for fuel.
Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said that for those in remote areas, “driving is not a choice but a necessity” and he wanted to make a “robust” case for helping them. The Treasury will issue a “call for evidence” and ask petrol retailers and customers in 35 counties to provide details of fuel prices.
Ministers will then apply to the European Commission for permission to extend the fuel rebate scheme to areas with prices as high as those in the Scottish islands.
The problem that the public ownership supporters have to address is where is the capital going to come from that will allow the services to be upgraded and renewed going to come from? One of the major problems with BR was that governments of both stripes deprived it of investment when they had other priorities such as health or indeed tax cuts.
The consequence of the Brown catastrophe is that any government of this country is going to have no spare cash for the next 20 years. Austerity will continue to rule after 2015 no matter who wins. So if this service remains in the public sector it will be deprived of cash. That is just inevitable.
If privatisation allows additional resources, which government does not have, to be invested in the service it at least needs to be looked at as a way of solving this problem. It may of course create other problems. Rail privatisation has been a mixed blessing at best and the implementation has been awful both under the last government and its predecessor. But unless we have found a money tree it does need to be looked at.
The article is by Christian Wolmar, so you can guess which side it comes down on. Still, it should be required reading for anyone attempting to get involved with this mess.
As I said yesterday, whether the ECML is profitable because it has been returned to public ownership is not proven.
The ATOC report is at: http://www.atoc.org/latest-publications/
The TUC report is at: http://www.tuc.org.uk/industrial/tuc-22263-f0.cfm
They are both well worth reading in conjunction with Wolmar's article.
Indeed - I used to be a regular EC traveller under both the old BR and then privatisation - its hard to compare each regime fairly in retrospect and your point re investment is very pertinent here.
I've been literally on the wrong end of a failed franchise that was forceably removed [Southern] because it was dreadful - but it's still better than it was in its previous BR form. The rolling stock turned up about 10yrs later than everywhere else - but its top quality and no doubt will last for several decades under its current franchise holder.
Clearly passenger numbers are rising like topsy despite the fare increases so how we manage capacity is another matter. Perhaps if we concentrated a bit more on creating job pockets closer to where people live, we could begin to address the creeping commuter-belt.
If the country doesn't agree with the decisions taken by the government, it will elect Ed the Bland as PM in 2015. It's called democracy. By all means comment on government policy, criticise it if you wish but stop your constant childish habit of insulting anything and everyone who doesn't happen to share your very personal opinions.
Everyone I know who uses trains tells me Virgin trains are excellent. I assume by their name, they are in the private sector. I don't use trains because the timetables do not enable me to get where I need to go when I need to be there.
1) Do you use this service?
2) Do you care very much about this question?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10215068/Wests-main-aid-group-for-Syrian-rebels-collapses-into-disarray.html
Cameron: 36 (+3)
Miliband: 19 (-1)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zh8oxrs8d1/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-310713.pdf
Given the subsidy that the last government and this one invest in the early part of a franchise this is really an unacceptable use of public money. But the failures that have occurred are fixable with sensible contracts, bonds etc.
The ATOC report Josias links to seems even a brief glance to substantially overstate the position. The run down of BR inevitably meant that there was substantial unmet demand for rail travel in this country. Once capacity was increased the use of the service would increase as well. This didn't require innovation and private sector flexibility. It required more capacity and trains.
The money spent under the last government by the public purse, either through Railtrack or through subsidy is simply not going to be repeated in the next 20 years. So where is the money going to come from? That is really the question.
Don't bother you're just wasting energy replying. It's better to ignore. Who knows? Perhaps it is a deliberate ploy and there are the occasional pearls of betting wisdom hidden amongst the thousands of vitriolic ejecta.
Take stock ordering, leaving aside the ordering vacuum immediately before privatisation. BR could only get the funding for small numbers of locomotives and carriages. Take the excellent Class 58's: only 50 were ordered, and 100 of the rather less excellent Class 60. Most (leaving aside the Romanian 56's) were built in Britain.
So what we ended up with was a plethora of rolling stock of different types, many over 30 yeas old. Governments of all flavours were hesitant to invest. When EWS got all three freight franchises, they ordered 250 Class 66's, which later became 446 from an American manufacturer, and scrapped many of the older types. The new locos had greater efficiency, were more easily maintained, and one-fleet costs were reduced.
There is no way BR could have done that investment, either financially or politically.
Another elephant in the room is Network Rail's massive indebtedness. This is potentially going to be a big problem:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/15/network-rail-debts-watchdog
More people are flying and using phones -since they entered the private sector.
And as ever, we should remember that railfreight is a massively important issue. It is too often forgotten, especially by some pressure groups who concentrate on passengers when talking about the railways as a whole.
However management style does matter and, with investment, the same growth may have occurred under BR. Sectorisation in BR in the 1980s saw some very promising improvements, from what I have heard. (AFAICR, Sectorisation was a change from a regional organisation to one of sectors, with each sector (e.g. railfreight) having more autonomy.)
But I cannot think that they would have got that investment. And that is the issue the pro-nationalisation people have to answer.
I am neither for or against nationalisation of the railways. But I want all options (including changing to a concessionary system) looked at, and I do not want the system to regress.
It should not be a decision made from a purely ideological viewpoint. And blindly talking about a change of ownership is exactly that.
" The British Medical Association (BMA) and NHS Employers will discuss changes after increasing criticism of the risks posed to patients because of shortages of senior staff outside regular hours.
NHS officals have said that more than 4,400 lives are lost each year because of poor care at weekends. Prof Sir Bruce Keogh, NHS England medical director, has said hospitals need to be “more like Tesco” and place higher priority on the convenience of patients, by offering routine procedures seven days a week.
Doctors at the BMA’s annual conference in June reacted angrily to the idea, describing it as “a folly” and a luxury the NHS cannot afford. The union and NHS Employers will now consider the terms over the summer before deciding whether to proceed to a formal renegotiation in the autumn.
... The average hospital consultant now earns around £120,000, including bonuses which 60 per cent are paid... * The first NHS dental surgery located inside a supermarket has opened at Tesco in Bedford. Senior managers behind the move, which offers check-ups and emergency care seven days a week, said they were working closely with the retailer and hope to open practices in more of their stores. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10214726/NHS-consultants-enter-talks-over-working-weekends.html
@electionista
UK - YouGov/Sun poll: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%
The summer doldrums continue. Ho hum.
An increase in operating profit from £1m to £7m frankly shows the problem. How on earth would that fund the sort of investment that Josias describes in terms of rolling stock? Given the level of turnover it is barely break even. And it is break even on a basis of subsidy through Network Rail.
The problem is how does the next generation of rolling stock as well as station and line improvements get funded? At the moment a lot of that cost is being borne by the taxpayer through Network Rail. Is any government really going to allow their guaranteed debts to run up to £50bn as described in the Guardian article? When government departments are being so tightly squeezed? I just don't believe it.
We need to improve our train capacity. I have no doubt it is an inhibitor on growth as well as encouraging excessive car use and congestion. How is this going to be funded if we do not bring in private money? In my non expert opinion the money being allocated to HS2 would be a start. It is excessive and can be better spent elsewhere. But the public purse is empty.
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)
Holy Kim!
Clearly lots of Tory voters have forgiven him for gay marriage or whatever else he's annoyed them about.
I saw a couple of comments about gay marriage over at the Times and my first reaction was 'that's so yesterday'. Given I was a little bit unsure about it re the CoE/religious angle at the start of the debate, I'm surprised by how far my own opinion has travelled.
Scrapheap will file to end his 40 year+ relationship and former part-owner of 'THFC' after the latest abject betrayal.
This is further to his final warning in January 2013 to stop messing about and get a new striker to ensure Champo League went unheeded.
Parties to this will be Modric, Berbatov and Carrick.
Forever a selling club.
Resurrection Clegg back for Cleggasm 2 ?
NOM back up at 2.4 on betfair - I've topped up.
Warning ahead! 98 per cent of drivers can't understand their dashboard lights (well, do YOU know what these symbols mean?)
Nine in 10 failed to recognise the sign for a faulty catalytic converter
Just 12 of the symbols were common across all car models
A Mercedes-Benz E Class has the most symbols with 41 compared to a Nissan Micra which has 21
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2381805/Warning-ahead-98-cent-drivers-understand-dashboard-lights.html#ixzz2ahWvvtAB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
If crossover is on the cards, i can see lefty anecdotes on why Ed is so much better versus PB polling on Nick being very nuch in vogue. ;-)
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2013/07/peter-cruddas-after-his-libel-victory-no-one-in-the-conservative-party-wanted-to-listen-to-my-side-o.html
"HS2 is a good example of why the govt doesn't think the public purse will be empty between 2017 and 2032, when the line will be built."
And perhaps they think that because they've been working to get public finances in order.
It is perhaps pertinent to reproduce that Guardian link about Network Rail's indebtedness. Remember, NR is in a strange situation where it is in public ownership but off the books. Perhaps the worst of all worlds.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/15/network-rail-debts-watchdog
Oh, and congratulations to all of the BenM family.
Hearty congratulations to BenM and family. I wish them great joy of their new arrival.
The Virgin coaches, partularly in standard class, are too cramped and the windows too small.
East Coast is pretty good - but then it always was in a former incarnation - GNER.
One of the great bargains on the rail system is an advance purchase 1st class. The service you get is superb and way ahead of Virgin first.
"One of the great bargains on the rail system is an advance purchase 1st class. The service you get is superb and way ahead of Virgin first."
....................................................
Time was Mike, when the now axed powdered wig service in 1st class was excellent. Happy days eh Mike, happy days !!
OA: +31
North East: +21 - area of lowest net support.....
Seeing the carnage in Spain, I did wonder if the BR Mark 4 carriages would have held up better.....
" Previously the documents remained secret for 30 years and were released by the National Archives in Kew, west London, at the end of every year.
The change to the rules means that two years worth of records will be made available each year from now until 2022 in order to catch up with the backlog of files. Documents from 1984 will be declassified in December this year.
After that the National Archives will revert to a single annual release of Government papers.
Releasing the records 10 years earlier will cost up to £38.5 million over the transition period, the Ministry of Justice said last month.
Lord McNally, the minister responsible for archives, said at the time: "The change to a 20-year rule is a key part of our transparency agenda and will see a wealth of historical material opened to the public much earlier than under current arrangements. " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10213570/New-20-year-rule-means-Government-records-will-be-released-earlier.html
Amber Valley Codnor & Waingroves Safe Labour seat fight between UKIP and Con for 2nd
Caerphilly Penyrheol Plaid seat close between Plaid and Labour , 3rd place fight between TUSC and Con
Norfolk CC Thetford West UKIP seat by 1 vote over Labour , Labour gain expected
Ribble Valley Littlemoor Conservative seat 3 way fight between LD , Con and an Independent ex UKIP who is now NOTA including UKIP , Labour will be 4th .
Worcs CC St Marys UKIP seat 5 way fight between UKIP , Con , Lab , an Independent with affiliations to both Liberal and Lib Dem and an Ind Health Concern . The Health Concern candidate is the least likely to win
Also Welsh Assembly by election for Ynys Mon , appears that everyone is expecting a comfortable Plaid hold with Labour 2nd and a fight for 3rd between Con and UKIP .
Heading into a wall did not much help. I also wonder if the fact that one of the carriages (I think the first to derail) had a heavy diesel generator set in it didn't help matters.
(Anecdote alert: I was involved in a very minor way with some crash tests in the 1990s to see if old Mark-I coaches could be made safe from over-ride in a low-speed crash. There's a funny story about that which sadly I can't tell...)
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.
Robert Hutton @RobDotHutton
Neil Kinnock on @BBCRadio4 : "I'd like to be remembered as a tall slim man with a deep voice who gave up the premiership after 25 years."
Manufacturing production increased for the fourth month running in July, as growth of new orders continued to strengthen. Companies reported improved domestic and export demand. New export business rose at the fastest pace for two years,reflecting increased sales to Australia, China, the euro area, Kenya, Mexico, the Middle East, Nigeria, Russia and the US....
Manufacturing employment rose for the third successive month in July, with the rate of job
growth reaching a two-year high."
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8b3b3e48988142f1a9c4a6c6491e6f4d
Precisely.
You sell your marquee player for ok a silly price but then you end up paying silly prices for players willing to accept a team in the Europa League.
Bale stays 1 more year you have a chance to get other big names to come as team is primed for Champs League.
They missed their chance last year when Bale renewed contract despite Modric going - we got ... Adebayor......
I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.
http://t.co/TbH2LXZapo
"Recent study conducted by ICM Research on domestic cat behaviour finds that nearly a two thirds (65%) of cat owners are not aware that purring can be a sign of pain as well as happiness.
Interestingly, just over a quarter (27%) of cat owners believe their cat intentionally sheds hair as a part of territorial marking, when in reality cats mark their territory by rubbing faces against furniture and other objects. About half (49%) of the cat owners do not know that when a cat licks its lips it is a sign of stress.
However, cat owners do not completely misunderstand their cats’ body language – nearly 7 in 10 (69%) correctly say that slowly blinking cat is relaxing. ICM interviewed 1138 GB cat owners online between 6th – 10th June 2013. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. http://www.icmresearch.com/how-well-do-you-know-your-cat
I find the best way of dealing with insect bites is to wear a Nosilife shirt which is impregnated with insect repellant and really does work. See
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlTNqH912Ig
Oh yes - the little flying buggers zzzzzzzzing about during the night have been driving me bonkers. There's a lot of standing water round here so that's not helping. I must have about 40 bites on my shins/feet.
Fleas haven't been an issue at all - its been too hot and dry for them. Last year was a nightmare.
Italians say you should sleep with a pig in the room to avoid getting bitten, Mrs Brooke likes to point out that she does :-(.
Now I'm just very tasty like you. Oh for being immune to them again!
some thoughts on mossies apparently 1 in 10 are magnets. My 2nd daughter takes more after me so when I'm not around she fills my place at the mosquito banquet.
http://www.webmd.com/allergies/features/are-you-mosquito-magnet
ps if you continue to UK site you can read on cat allergies .
"Lib Dem members swing in favour of Coalition’s economic policies. 41% (+15%) – "
"The Coalition is right to keep its focus on cutting the deficit and limiting the UK’s debt: sustainable growth is only possible if we stop spending more than we earn as a nation, even if it is painful in the short-term. "
If you aren't keen on creepy-crawlies - live away from water.
"Would it be nice to see a government enforced price cap on electricity ?"
http://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/news/10582777.Rethink_ordered_in_MP_s_re_selection_fight/?ref=twt&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Dr Taylor announces he will stand again in Wyre Forest. IIRC he's around 80 year old.
Well I'll be darned!
3 of my office coworkers visit the Sun "Best one going but I won't pay for it."
"Switch to the Mirror/Mail" was another response.
3 'page viewers', 3 Non payers.
Note I'm not writing it off, it could also mean a small jump in their physical sales too. We shall see in the fullness of time. Interesting experiment as it is the first Red Top to go paywall.
Also interesting to note it is one of my colleague's 'first' homepage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23528898
The share price is now about 73.8p - well into positive territory.