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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

The East Coast Main Line should remain in public ownership, as it is now better run than it was when privatised and is returning profits to the Treasury

Read the full story here

malcolmg

tim said:

Thats why the Tories are determined to get it out of the public sector before the election.
The contrast with their cock up of the West Coast main line franchise is stark.

Even among Tory voters far more are against (48%) taking the East Coast out of public ownership than are in favour of it (28%), a margin that will be acutely embarrassing for the Government.

The PB Tory demographic won't reflect the real world of course

They will give it away to one of their buddies so that they can milk the public purse. They are not in it for the country, their interest is to fill both their own and their pals pockets at the expense of the mugs at the bottom of the heap.

RobD

Do you know the difference in the response ratio to the two questions?

Plato

I wondered if this would be extended - looks like it will. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fuel/10215207/Fuel-duty-to-be-cut-in-remote-regions.html

Ministers will say that motorists living in isolated parts of Devon, Northumberland, North Yorkshire and Wales could be in line for a reduction of 5p a litre at the pumps. The scheme, similar to that already used in the Scottish islands, is designed to prevent rural drivers paying a premium for fuel.

Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said that for those in remote areas, “driving is not a choice but a necessity” and he wanted to make a “robust” case for helping them. The Treasury will issue a “call for evidence” and ask petrol retailers and customers in 35 counties to provide details of fuel prices.

Ministers will then apply to the European Commission for permission to extend the fuel rebate scheme to areas with prices as high as those in the Scottish islands.

DavidL

I think that Mike is right in stating that there is always a preference in these polls for the status quo. That seems to me entirely logical on the part of the public because there is a perception, largely based on fact, that there has been fairly regular mucking about with the structure of railway ownership and finance to little obvious benefit.

The problem that the public ownership supporters have to address is where is the capital going to come from that will allow the services to be upgraded and renewed going to come from? One of the major problems with BR was that governments of both stripes deprived it of investment when they had other priorities such as health or indeed tax cuts.

The consequence of the Brown catastrophe is that any government of this country is going to have no spare cash for the next 20 years. Austerity will continue to rule after 2015 no matter who wins. So if this service remains in the public sector it will be deprived of cash. That is just inevitable.

If privatisation allows additional resources, which government does not have, to be invested in the service it at least needs to be looked at as a way of solving this problem. It may of course create other problems. Rail privatisation has been a mixed blessing at best and the implementation has been awful both under the last government and its predecessor. But unless we have found a money tree it does need to be looked at.

TGOHF

Did they ask if anyone liked apple pie ?

RobD

RobD said:

Do you know the difference in the response ratio to the two questions?

Oops I'm an idiot. I thought two different sets of questions were being asked, both with a agree/disagree response.

richardDodd

I see the panic that started in Cheshire has extencded to Scotland.

JosiasJessop

There is a very interesting article in the latest Rail magazine about whether privatisation has caused the successful growth in railway traffic. It is in response to an ATOC report (the organisation of train operating companies) that attempted to justify the current structure, which in itself is a response to a TUC report saying the opposite.

The article is by Christian Wolmar, so you can guess which side it comes down on. Still, it should be required reading for anyone attempting to get involved with this mess.

As I said yesterday, whether the ECML is profitable because it has been returned to public ownership is not proven.

The ATOC report is at: http://www.atoc.org/latest-publications/
The TUC report is at: http://www.tuc.org.uk/industrial/tuc-22263-f0.cfm

They are both well worth reading in conjunction with Wolmar's article.

TGOHF

Did they ask what was more important - who runs them or how they run ?

NickPalmer

Is there a LibDem position on this? Does the Government have a majority for privatising it?

Plato

@DavidL

Indeed - I used to be a regular EC traveller under both the old BR and then privatisation - its hard to compare each regime fairly in retrospect and your point re investment is very pertinent here.

I've been literally on the wrong end of a failed franchise that was forceably removed [Southern] because it was dreadful - but it's still better than it was in its previous BR form. The rolling stock turned up about 10yrs later than everywhere else - but its top quality and no doubt will last for several decades under its current franchise holder.

Clearly passenger numbers are rising like topsy despite the fare increases so how we manage capacity is another matter. Perhaps if we concentrated a bit more on creating job pockets closer to where people live, we could begin to address the creeping commuter-belt.

Easterross

Tim you really are a sad excuse for a human being. You seem incapable of making any comment without insulting someone. Are your wine sales down this year?

If the country doesn't agree with the decisions taken by the government, it will elect Ed the Bland as PM in 2015. It's called democracy. By all means comment on government policy, criticise it if you wish but stop your constant childish habit of insulting anything and everyone who doesn't happen to share your very personal opinions.

Everyone I know who uses trains tells me Virgin trains are excellent. I assume by their name, they are in the private sector. I don't use trains because the timetables do not enable me to get where I need to go when I need to be there.

AlastairMeeks

Two further questions would have been helpful:

1) Do you use this service?
2) Do you care very much about this question?

NickPalmer

What a pity Cameron ran into opposition preventing the dispatch of arms to these guys:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10215068/Wests-main-aid-group-for-Syrian-rebels-collapses-into-disarray.html

Plato

Big bump in profits at Lloyds - good news for George if he wants to sell off a chunk of our 39%.

Easterross

tim said:

@Easterross

Everyone I know who uses trains tells me Virgin trains are excellent. I assume by their name, they are in the private sector. I don't use trains because the timetables do not enable me to get where I need to go when I need to be there.

Thanks for that stunning contribution

I've posted four polls and you've posted one of the most laughable anecdotes possible

I rest my case.

CarlottaVance

Best Prime Minister
Cameron: 36 (+3)
Miliband: 19 (-1)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zh8oxrs8d1/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-310713.pdf

DavidL

Plato said:

@DavidL

Indeed - I used to be a regular EC traveller under both the old BR and then privatisation - its hard to compare each regime fairly in retrospect and your point re investment is very pertinent here.

I've been literally on the wrong end of a failed franchise that was forceably removed [Southern] because it was dreadful - but it's still better than it was in its previous BR form. The rolling stock turned up about 10yrs later than everywhere else - but its top quality and no doubt will last for several decades under its current franchise holder.

Clearly passenger numbers are rising like topsy despite the fare increases so how we manage capacity is another matter. Perhaps if we concentrated a bit more on creating job pockets closer to where people live, we could begin to address the creeping commuter-belt.

IANAE on this by any means but one of the frustrations has been how failed franchises have been dealt with. As with a lot of PFI, to which this is similar in effect, it turned out that a significant part of the financial risk of failure lay in the public hands after all.

Given the subsidy that the last government and this one invest in the early part of a franchise this is really an unacceptable use of public money. But the failures that have occurred are fixable with sensible contracts, bonds etc.

The ATOC report Josias links to seems even a brief glance to substantially overstate the position. The run down of BR inevitably meant that there was substantial unmet demand for rail travel in this country. Once capacity was increased the use of the service would increase as well. This didn't require innovation and private sector flexibility. It required more capacity and trains.

The money spent under the last government by the public purse, either through Railtrack or through subsidy is simply not going to be repeated in the next 20 years. So where is the money going to come from? That is really the question.

Blue_rog

@Easterross 8.04

Don't bother you're just wasting energy replying. It's better to ignore. Who knows? Perhaps it is a deliberate ploy and there are the occasional pearls of betting wisdom hidden amongst the thousands of vitriolic ejecta.

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

(snippetty-snip of some good stuff)

The consequence of the Brown catastrophe is that any government of this country is going to have no spare cash for the next 20 years. Austerity will continue to rule after 2015 no matter who wins. So if this service remains in the public sector it will be deprived of cash. That is just inevitable.

If privatisation allows additional resources, which government does not have, to be invested in the service it at least needs to be looked at as a way of solving this problem. It may of course create other problems. Rail privatisation has been a mixed blessing at best and the implementation has been awful both under the last government and its predecessor. But unless we have found a money tree it does need to be looked at.

Totally right on investment. As I asked Nick Palmer yesterday (or words to this effect): if BR had not been privatised, would the Labour government have invested the same amount in it, especially as that would have meant removing funding from other areas such as health and education?

Take stock ordering, leaving aside the ordering vacuum immediately before privatisation. BR could only get the funding for small numbers of locomotives and carriages. Take the excellent Class 58's: only 50 were ordered, and 100 of the rather less excellent Class 60. Most (leaving aside the Romanian 56's) were built in Britain.

So what we ended up with was a plethora of rolling stock of different types, many over 30 yeas old. Governments of all flavours were hesitant to invest. When EWS got all three freight franchises, they ordered 250 Class 66's, which later became 446 from an American manufacturer, and scrapped many of the older types. The new locos had greater efficiency, were more easily maintained, and one-fleet costs were reduced.

There is no way BR could have done that investment, either financially or politically.

Another elephant in the room is Network Rail's massive indebtedness. This is potentially going to be a big problem:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/15/network-rail-debts-watchdog

Jonathan

It's a bit of a stretch to say rail privitisation caused and increase in traveller numbers. The cost of property in London and the centralisation of employers in cities and congested roads is a more likely cause.

CarlottaVance

NickPalmer said:

What a pity Cameron ran into opposition preventing the dispatch of arms to these guys:

What a pity Blair didn't listen to the opposition to the intervention in Iraq.....

Plato

NickPalmer said:

What a pity Cameron ran into opposition preventing the dispatch of arms to these guys:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10215068/Wests-main-aid-group-for-Syrian-rebels-collapses-into-disarray.html

I don't want us interfering here at all. It's not our business, its up to them to sort out their own issues. Imagine if they'd stuck their oar in over NI Troubles?

TGOHF

Jonathan said:

It's a bit of a stretch to say rail privitisation caused and increase in traveller numbers. The cost of property in London and the central is action of employers in cities and congested roads is a more likely cause.

Perhaps trains are better and people are more content to commute ?

More people are flying and using phones -since they entered the private sector.

JosiasJessop

Jonathan said:

It's a bit of a stretch to say rail privitisation caused and increase in traveller numbers. The cost of property in London and the centralisation of employers in cities and congested roads is a more likely cause.

It is one of the great issues in this topic that really needs sorting. It is likely to be many issues combining, but perhaps the real question is whether privatisation enabled an increase in traffic.

And as ever, we should remember that railfreight is a massively important issue. It is too often forgotten, especially by some pressure groups who concentrate on passengers when talking about the railways as a whole.

However management style does matter and, with investment, the same growth may have occurred under BR. Sectorisation in BR in the 1980s saw some very promising improvements, from what I have heard. (AFAICR, Sectorisation was a change from a regional organisation to one of sectors, with each sector (e.g. railfreight) having more autonomy.)

But I cannot think that they would have got that investment. And that is the issue the pro-nationalisation people have to answer.

I am neither for or against nationalisation of the railways. But I want all options (including changing to a concessionary system) looked at, and I do not want the system to regress.

It should not be a decision made from a purely ideological viewpoint. And blindly talking about a change of ownership is exactly that.

Plato

Quite a shift in position. Something gave them a kick - I wonder what...

" The British Medical Association (BMA) and NHS Employers will discuss changes after increasing criticism of the risks posed to patients because of shortages of senior staff outside regular hours.

NHS officals have said that more than 4,400 lives are lost each year because of poor care at weekends. Prof Sir Bruce Keogh, NHS England medical director, has said hospitals need to be “more like Tesco” and place higher priority on the convenience of patients, by offering routine procedures seven days a week.

Doctors at the BMA’s annual conference in June reacted angrily to the idea, describing it as “a folly” and a luxury the NHS cannot afford. The union and NHS Employers will now consider the terms over the summer before deciding whether to proceed to a formal renegotiation in the autumn.

... The average hospital consultant now earns around £120,000, including bonuses which 60 per cent are paid... * The first NHS dental surgery located inside a supermarket has opened at Tesco in Bedford. Senior managers behind the move, which offers check-ups and emergency care seven days a week, said they were working closely with the retailer and hope to open practices in more of their stores. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10214726/NHS-consultants-enter-talks-over-working-weekends.html

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Jonathan said:

It's a bit of a stretch to say rail privitisation caused and increase in traveller numbers. The cost of property in London and the central is action of employers in cities and congested roads is a more likely cause.

Perhaps trains are better and people are more content to commute ?

More people are flying and using phones -since they entered the private sector.

More people are using the NHS, what a leap of logic that is.
Exactly the same percentage are drinking water, that's not related to whether the regional monopoly is privately or publicly owned

More people need health treatment under our public run health system - suprised you chose to point that out...

MikeK

‏@electionista
UK - YouGov/Sun poll: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%

The summer doldrums continue. Ho hum.

PBModerator

NO MORE INSULTS PLEASE

DavidL

@Tim

An increase in operating profit from £1m to £7m frankly shows the problem. How on earth would that fund the sort of investment that Josias describes in terms of rolling stock? Given the level of turnover it is barely break even. And it is break even on a basis of subsidy through Network Rail.

The problem is how does the next generation of rolling stock as well as station and line improvements get funded? At the moment a lot of that cost is being borne by the taxpayer through Network Rail. Is any government really going to allow their guaranteed debts to run up to £50bn as described in the Guardian article? When government departments are being so tightly squeezed? I just don't believe it.

We need to improve our train capacity. I have no doubt it is an inhibitor on growth as well as encouraging excessive car use and congestion. How is this going to be funded if we do not bring in private money? In my non expert opinion the money being allocated to HS2 would be a start. It is excessive and can be better spent elsewhere. But the public purse is empty.

CarlottaVance

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Clegg/ Ed switchover this month ?

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Hmm Ed and Cleggy heading for crossover at this rate.

Plato

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Cameron 94 ??!?!

Holy Kim!

Clearly lots of Tory voters have forgiven him for gay marriage or whatever else he's annoyed them about.

I saw a couple of comments about gay marriage over at the Times and my first reaction was 'that's so yesterday'. Given I was a little bit unsure about it re the CoE/religious angle at the start of the debate, I'm surprised by how far my own opinion has travelled.

DavidL

tim said:

@DavidL

HS2 is a good example of why the govt doesn't think the public purse is empty.

It is a good example of politicians who want to announce grand schemes not coming to grip with the painful realities of our position. Being one of our political leaders is going to be a lot less fun over the next 20 years. Not getting to play with new train sets will be the least of it.

Scrapheap_as_was

*** Divorce proceedings ***

Scrapheap will file to end his 40 year+ relationship and former part-owner of 'THFC' after the latest abject betrayal.

This is further to his final warning in January 2013 to stop messing about and get a new striker to ensure Champo League went unheeded.

Parties to this will be Modric, Berbatov and Carrick.

Forever a selling club.

TGOHF

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Hmm Ed and Cleggy heading for crossover at this rate.

With the union block vote Miliband doesn't need to panic until he's down to about 2% though

Resurrection Clegg back for Cleggasm 2 ?

NOM back up at 2.4 on betfair - I've topped up.

Alanbrooke

Plato said:

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Cameron 94 ??!?!

Holy Kim!

Clearly lots of Tory voters have forgiven him for gay marriage or whatever else he's annoyed them about.

I saw a couple of comments about gay marriage over at the Times and my first reaction was 'that's so yesterday'. Given I was a little bit unsure about it re the CoE/religious angle at the start of the debate, I'm surprised by how far my own opinion has travelled.

basically when he stops being a PR man he looks more prime ministerial, if Crosby has told him to STFU and just comment on major issues, then so much the better. Even Cleggy is climbing perhaps he's moving to national treasure status as the political vitriol wears off in a recovery and people just enjoy him tying himself in his own knots.

Plato

Speaking of transport... My Merc had an EAS light that occasionally came on and went off again for a few months - I've no idea what it was telling me and since it didn't stay on after I turned the ignition off/on - I assumed it wasn't that serious...

Warning ahead! 98 per cent of drivers can't understand their dashboard lights (well, do YOU know what these symbols mean?)

Nine in 10 failed to recognise the sign for a faulty catalytic converter

Just 12 of the symbols were common across all car models

A Mercedes-Benz E Class has the most symbols with 41 compared to a Nissan Micra which has 21


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2381805/Warning-ahead-98-cent-drivers-understand-dashboard-lights.html#ixzz2ahWvvtAB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Alanbrooke

TGOHF said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Best Prime Minister - among VI (change vs May)
Cameron: 94 (+4)
Miliband: 55 (-10)
Clegg: 51 (+6)

Hmm Ed and Cleggy heading for crossover at this rate.

With the union block vote Miliband doesn't need to panic until he's down to about 2% though

Resurrection Clegg back for Cleggasm 2 ?

NOM back up at 2.4 on betfair - I've topped up.

Go Cleggy go !

If crossover is on the cards, i can see lefty anecdotes on why Ed is so much better versus PB polling on Nick being very nuch in vogue. ;-)

Sunil_Prasannan

Didn't the Beeching Axe happen under Nationalisation?

RedRag1

Multi Blue on Blue action(though I do like Grant Shapps cameo, he is brilliant at acting and sounding like he is a bit clueless, all an act of course)....GO GO GO !!!!!


http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2013/07/peter-cruddas-after-his-libel-victory-no-one-in-the-conservative-party-wanted-to-listen-to-my-side-o.html

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

*** Divorce proceedings ***

Scrapheap will file to end his 40 year+ relationship and former part-owner of 'THFC' after the latest abject betrayal.

This is further to his final warning in January 2013 to stop messing about and get a new striker to ensure Champo League went unheeded.

Parties to this will be Modric, Berbatov and Carrick.

Forever a selling club.

Great player that he is, and pleased as an Arsenal fan that he looks like going, £85m is a great deal for Spurs... You could buy Rooney and Suarez as replacements and still have change in your pocket. Only problem is getting top players to a club in the Europa League

Plato

Is it my imagination or has electioneering started a little earlier than normal? Perhaps its because we know the GE will be May 2015 bar a black swan, but certainly HMG seem to be getting their ducks in a row.

JosiasJessop

tim said:

@DavidL

HS2 is a good example of why the govt doesn't think the public purse is empty.

What you mean is:

"HS2 is a good example of why the govt doesn't think the public purse will be empty between 2017 and 2032, when the line will be built."

And perhaps they think that because they've been working to get public finances in order.

It is perhaps pertinent to reproduce that Guardian link about Network Rail's indebtedness. Remember, NR is in a strange situation where it is in public ownership but off the books. Perhaps the worst of all worlds.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/15/network-rail-debts-watchdog

RedRag1

Three quarters of Free schools are classed as good or outstanding. So there are six schools, despite the fact they have had thousands upon thousands thrown at them that are classed at "inadequate or required improvement". Absolute Bargain!!!!

TGOHF

tim said:

@TGOHF

Here's a good graph for you and the other blind faith worshippers in the market in all spheres

http://www.sierrafoot.org/civics/health_care/oecd_2011_graphs_usa_highlighted/life_expectancy_at_birth_and_health_spending_per_capita.jpg

What went wrong with the theory that private systems necessarily outperform public ones and drive down costs there then?

tim - just to save you time in the future I hardly ever read your posts past the first line and would never click on a link you post.

Plato

In case @BenM has better things to do today - he's the proud father of a little boy George! Mum is doing fine.

RedRag1

tim said:

RedRag1 said:

Multi Blue on Blue action(though I do like Grant Shapps cameo, he is brilliant at acting and sounding like he is a bit clueless, all an act of course)....GO GO GO !!!!!


http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2013/07/peter-cruddas-after-his-libel-victory-no-one-in-the-conservative-party-wanted-to-listen-to-my-side-o.html

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft
Michael Fallon (who I rate) on Newsnight tells Cruddas he needs to get his apology from SundayTimes! AMAZING. Is this the Party line?

Bloody comprehensive school pupil getting uppity with the chums, who does he think he is?

Not seen much of Grant Shapps before.....does he always sound this bloody stupid?

JosiasJessop

tim said:

@JosiasJessop.

Given that the govt can find money for this fuel scheme I think we can safely ignore their preaching to other people about special interest pleading don't you?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-23520072

No, not really.

Oh, and congratulations to all of the BenM family.

JackW

Plato said:

In case @BenM has better things to do today - he's the proud father of a little boy George! Mum is doing fine.

George Alexander Louis has a nice ring to it !!

Hearty congratulations to BenM and family. I wish them great joy of their new arrival.

MikeSmithson

I am a very regular user of trains and Virgin are okay but not as good as East Coast.

The Virgin coaches, partularly in standard class, are too cramped and the windows too small.

East Coast is pretty good - but then it always was in a former incarnation - GNER.

One of the great bargains on the rail system is an advance purchase 1st class. The service you get is superb and way ahead of Virgin first.

Easterross said:

Tim you really are a sad excuse for a human being. You seem incapable of making any comment without insulting someone. Are your wine sales down this year?

If the country doesn't agree with the decisions taken by the government, it will elect Ed the Bland as PM in 2015. It's called democracy. By all means comment on government policy, criticise it if you wish but stop your constant childish habit of insulting anything and everyone who doesn't happen to share your very personal opinions.

Everyone I know who uses trains tells me Virgin trains are excellent. I assume by their name, they are in the private sector. I don't use trains because the timetables do not enable me to get where I need to go when I need to be there.

JackW

@MikeSmithson wrote :

"One of the great bargains on the rail system is an advance purchase 1st class. The service you get is superb and way ahead of Virgin first."

....................................................

Time was Mike, when the now axed powdered wig service in 1st class was excellent. Happy days eh Mike, happy days !!

JosiasJessop

tim said:

On Topic.

Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 2m
Our infographic on today's East Coast Rail data. Interesting regional support along the course of the line..

http://survation.com/2013/08/east-coast-rail-re-privatisation-universally-unpopular/

Some nice graphics, Tories on a loser there, the Lib Dems must have an incentive to stop it.

Support for nationalisation higher in the east.

Tim and others: when you say nationalisation, what do you envisage? How will it be structured? Will Open Access still be allowed? Would you put the entire railway back on the books?

CarlottaVance

tim said:

On Topic.

Support for nationalisation higher in the east.

Net support for remaining in Public Ownership:
OA: +31
North East: +21 - area of lowest net support.....

CarlottaVance

GNER was a great service - the Tees Tyne Pulman being a very civilised way to get a days business done in London - East Coast is not as good, but then Policemen are younger too......

Seeing the carnage in Spain, I did wonder if the BR Mark 4 carriages would have held up better.....

Plato

This is a great step forward - 20yrs rather than 30yrs rule. Seeing stuff from 1984 feels very recent for someone of my vintage. I like to think that being 18 wasn''t that long ago ;^ )

" Previously the documents remained secret for 30 years and were released by the National Archives in Kew, west London, at the end of every year.

The change to the rules means that two years worth of records will be made available each year from now until 2022 in order to catch up with the backlog of files. Documents from 1984 will be declassified in December this year.

After that the National Archives will revert to a single annual release of Government papers.

Releasing the records 10 years earlier will cost up to £38.5 million over the transition period, the Ministry of Justice said last month.

Lord McNally, the minister responsible for archives, said at the time: "The change to a 20-year rule is a key part of our transparency agenda and will see a wealth of historical material opened to the public much earlier than under current arrangements. " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10213570/New-20-year-rule-means-Government-records-will-be-released-earlier.html

MarkSenior

A brief look at today's by elections

Amber Valley Codnor & Waingroves Safe Labour seat fight between UKIP and Con for 2nd
Caerphilly Penyrheol Plaid seat close between Plaid and Labour , 3rd place fight between TUSC and Con
Norfolk CC Thetford West UKIP seat by 1 vote over Labour , Labour gain expected
Ribble Valley Littlemoor Conservative seat 3 way fight between LD , Con and an Independent ex UKIP who is now NOTA including UKIP , Labour will be 4th .
Worcs CC St Marys UKIP seat 5 way fight between UKIP , Con , Lab , an Independent with affiliations to both Liberal and Lib Dem and an Ind Health Concern . The Health Concern candidate is the least likely to win
Also Welsh Assembly by election for Ynys Mon , appears that everyone is expecting a comfortable Plaid hold with Labour 2nd and a fight for 3rd between Con and UKIP .

Plato

SeanT said:

Truly excellent economic news:

UK Manufacturing PMI = 54.6 vs 52.8 expected

Have you seen the creeping decline across China/Asian PMIs? Things are certainly slowing down over there. That PMIs are below 50 just feels so peculiar.

Grandiose

What a horrible polling question, with all those attached statements.

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

GNER was a great service - the Tees Tyne Pulman being a very civilised way to get a days business done in London - East Coast is not as good, but then Policemen are younger too......

Seeing the carnage in Spain, I did wonder if the BR Mark 4 carriages would have held up better.....

I doubt it. The energy to be dissipated in that crash was very large, and the rolling stock (I believe) relatively new, and therefore up to the latest European standards.

Heading into a wall did not much help. I also wonder if the fact that one of the carriages (I think the first to derail) had a heavy diesel generator set in it didn't help matters.

(Anecdote alert: I was involved in a very minor way with some crash tests in the 1990s to see if old Mark-I coaches could be made safe from over-ride in a low-speed crash. There's a funny story about that which sadly I can't tell...)

TCPoliticalBetting

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Plato

Great quip

Robert Hutton @RobDotHutton
Neil Kinnock on @BBCRadio4 : "I'd like to be remembered as a tall slim man with a deep voice who gave up the premiership after 25 years."

JonathanD

"The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing PMI rose to a 28-month high of 54.6 in July, up from a revised reading of 52.9 in June (originally published as 52.5)...

Manufacturing production increased for the fourth month running in July, as growth of new orders continued to strengthen. Companies reported improved domestic and export demand. New export business rose at the fastest pace for two years,reflecting increased sales to Australia, China, the euro area, Kenya, Mexico, the Middle East, Nigeria, Russia and the US....

Manufacturing employment rose for the third successive month in July, with the rate of job
growth reaching a two-year high."

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8b3b3e48988142f1a9c4a6c6491e6f4d

Scrapheap_as_was

"Only problem is getting top players to a club in the Europa League"

Precisely.

You sell your marquee player for ok a silly price but then you end up paying silly prices for players willing to accept a team in the Europa League.

Bale stays 1 more year you have a chance to get other big names to come as team is primed for Champs League.

They missed their chance last year when Bale renewed contract despite Modric going - we got ... Adebayor......

Plato

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )

I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Plato

I know we have a few Dr Who fans on here - here's one of the leading contenders for the role writing about it when he was 15yrs old...Peter Capaldi

http://t.co/TbH2LXZapo

MaxPB

SeanT said:

We really do seem to be exiting Planet Recession. Finally.

I'm sure an article from Stephanie Flanders is about to tell me otherwise and why this otherwise decent looking PMI figure actually means we're heading into a quadruple dip depression and why it's great news for her two ex boyfriends Ed and Ed.

Plato

Polling on cats by ICM - my perfect combination!

"Recent study conducted by ICM Research on domestic cat behaviour finds that nearly a two thirds (65%) of cat owners are not aware that purring can be a sign of pain as well as happiness.

Interestingly, just over a quarter (27%) of cat owners believe their cat intentionally sheds hair as a part of territorial marking, when in reality cats mark their territory by rubbing faces against furniture and other objects. About half (49%) of the cat owners do not know that when a cat licks its lips it is a sign of stress.

However, cat owners do not completely misunderstand their cats’ body language – nearly 7 in 10 (69%) correctly say that slowly blinking cat is relaxing. ICM interviewed 1138 GB cat owners online between 6th – 10th June 2013. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. http://www.icmresearch.com/how-well-do-you-know-your-cat

Financier

Plato said:

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )

I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

Try citonella (can get it liquid to rub on) - or Avon Skin So Soft or similar (Believe military use similar).

Depends whether you wish to small lemony or not.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

TCPoliticalBetting

Plato said:

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )
I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Are you sure they are not cat fleas?

AlastairMeeks

@MikeSmithson It's rare that I completely disagree with you, but the idea that East Coast First Class is better than Virgin's is one of your more outré ideas. The food is barely edible, the drink trolley is as elusive as the yeti and on about one in three trains the heating seems to have gone haywire.

MikeSmithson

@Plato

I find the best way of dealing with insect bites is to wear a Nosilife shirt which is impregnated with insect repellant and really does work. See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlTNqH912Ig

Plato

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Are you sure they are not cat fleas?


Oh yes - the little flying buggers zzzzzzzzing about during the night have been driving me bonkers. There's a lot of standing water round here so that's not helping. I must have about 40 bites on my shins/feet.

Fleas haven't been an issue at all - its been too hot and dry for them. Last year was a nightmare.

Plato

@MikeSmithson @Financier - thanks!

Plato

RT @ReutersJamie: UK manufacturing PMI of 54.6 consistent with GDP growth of around 1% on a 3-month on 3-month basis, says @MarkitEconomics.

Alanbrooke

Plato said:

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )

I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Miss P, perhaps I should come down and stay with you for a couple of weeks. On holiday there's always one person who attracts all the mossies, thereby giving everyone else bite-free evenings. Unfortunately that person is me in our family, I'm a mossie magnet, they bite the hell out of me and leave everyone else alone.

Italians say you should sleep with a pig in the room to avoid getting bitten, Mrs Brooke likes to point out that she does :-(.

dr_spyn

Plato said:

In case @BenM has better things to do today - he's the proud father of a little boy George! Mum is doing fine.

Congratulations - hope the sleepless nights are as rare as labour GE wins in the next 50 years.

currystar

A thought on todays Yougov, the tories are on 33% which is just 3% below their 2010 election performance. UKIP are on 14% which is 11% above their 2010 election performance. If the stories about UKIP attracting far more tory voters are true, then the tories must be attracting support from previous Lib and Labour voters, which according to some posters can not happen.

Plato

I never used to get bitten - my hubby did and I used to roll my eyes at his complaining. Then after a vicious assault by mossies in Jamaica I became allergic to them and came up in giant lumps that took days to go away.

Now I'm just very tasty like you. Oh for being immune to them again!

Alanbrooke said:

Plato said:

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )

I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Miss P, perhaps I should come down and stay with you for a couple of weeks. On holiday there's always one person who attracts all the mossies, thereby giving everyone else bite-free evenings. Unfortunately that person is me in our family, I'm a mossie magnet, they bite the hell out of me and leave everyone else alone.

Italians say you should sleep with a pig in the room to avoid getting bitten, Mrs Brooke likes to point out that she does :-(.

Plato

currystar said:

A thought on todays Yougov, the tories are on 33% which is just 3% below their 2010 election performance. UKIP are on 14% which is 11% above their 2010 election performance. If the stories about UKIP attracting far more tory voters are true, then the tories must be attracting support from previous Lib and Labour voters, which according to some posters can not happen.

It'd be interesting to know if any Kipper voters who were DNVers [something Mr Farage has claimed often] are now re-engaged and thinking of voting Tory.

MarkSenior

currystar said:

A thought on todays Yougov, the tories are on 33% which is just 3% below their 2010 election performance. UKIP are on 14% which is 11% above their 2010 election performance. If the stories about UKIP attracting far more tory voters are true, then the tories must be attracting support from previous Lib and Labour voters, which according to some posters can not happen.

Acoording to the Yougov data tables UKIP , they have in this poll 16% of 2010 Conservatives , 3% of 2010 Labour voters and 6% of 2010 LD voters .

Alanbrooke

@Plato

some thoughts on mossies apparently 1 in 10 are magnets. My 2nd daughter takes more after me so when I'm not around she fills my place at the mosquito banquet.

http://www.webmd.com/allergies/features/are-you-mosquito-magnet

ps if you continue to UK site you can read on cat allergies .

richardDodd

So far this year,here in Northern Italy we have not had one mosquito , anywhere. and we live out in the country..Is this the end of the world ...

Rexel56

Grandiose said:

What a horrible polling question, with all those attached statements.

Shhh... we're meant to be pretending that this poll is a clear mandate to bring back British Rail. The fact that the East Coast mainline is simply a TOC run by exceptional professionals drawn from other TOCs, benefitting from investments by the previous TOC is to be quietly ignored...

Plato

Facsinating! Thanks for that.

Alanbrooke said:

@Plato

some thoughts on mossies apparently 1 in 10 are magnets. My 2nd daughter takes more after me so when I'm not around she fills my place at the mosquito banquet.

http://www.webmd.com/allergies/features/are-you-mosquito-magnet

ps if you continue to UK site you can read on cat allergies .

Alanbrooke

richardDodd said:

So far this year,here in Northern Italy we have not had one mosquito , anywhere. and we live out in the country..Is this the end of the world ...

Are you near water ? Most of the times I've been bitten in Italy I've stayed near a pool, or lake. The worst was about 3 years ago when the accommodation had a fish pond - not a good idea.

TCPoliticalBetting

http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-members-views-on-economy-35568.html
"Lib Dem members swing in favour of Coalition’s economic policies. 41% (+15%) – "
"The Coalition is right to keep its focus on cutting the deficit and limiting the UK’s debt: sustainable growth is only possible if we stop spending more than we earn as a nation, even if it is painful in the short-term. "

JackW

richardDodd said:

So far this year,here in Northern Italy we have not had one mosquito , anywhere. and we live out in the country..Is this the end of the world ...

Yes it is the "end of the world". You forgot you moved to the Arctic Circle !!

TCPoliticalBetting

Grandiose said:

What a horrible polling question, with all those attached statements.

Yes the questions were loaded with the pro-Govt one offering the profits and the anti-Govt one not mentioning lower costs to our taxes... A bit of a magic money tree proposal.

TCPoliticalBetting

Plato said:

I never used to get bitten - my hubby did and I used to roll my eyes at his complaining. Then after a vicious assault by mossies in Jamaica I became allergic to them and came up in giant lumps that took days to go away.
Now I'm just very tasty like you. Oh for being immune to them again!

Alanbrooke said:

Plato said:

Can I moan about the final point? :^ )
I've been bitten to death by mosquitos.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

So to summarise the state of play, everybodys happy:-
1. The polls continue to show a further widening of the lead of Cam over EdMilli.
2. The polls show that the Labour lead is in a range of 0% to 7%.
3. UKIPs polling drop seems to have levelled off at a point well up on 2012.
4. Most Lefties are very happy as Ed's ratings apparently do not matter and they judge that he has 3 years to turn it around.
5. Liberals are happy as they believe that their 2010 voters will return and also these voters will simultaneously vote Labour. Also believe that opposing anti-immigration moves is a vote winner.
6. Righties are happier with the polling.
7. SNP types are happy as they think that the referendum is moving their way.
8. Most folk in the South are happy enjoying a very hot day.

Miss P, perhaps I should come down and stay with you for a couple of weeks. On holiday there's always one person who attracts all the mossies, thereby giving everyone else bite-free evenings. Unfortunately that person is me in our family, I'm a mossie magnet, they bite the hell out of me and leave everyone else alone.

Italians say you should sleep with a pig in the room to avoid getting bitten, Mrs Brooke likes to point out that she does :-(.

There are a lot of worse things to get from that place.

richardDodd

AB..We have a lot of garden which is constantly watered, we have our own well, and we are surrounded by vinyards which are sprayed a lot during the day, plus the run off dikes are fairly full..It was totally different last year when we lived a few hundred yards away in the centre of the village, lotsa mossies there..

Plato

Alanbrooke said:

richardDodd said:

So far this year,here in Northern Italy we have not had one mosquito , anywhere. and we live out in the country..Is this the end of the world ...

Are you near water ? Most of the times I've been bitten in Italy I've stayed near a pool, or lake. The worst was about 3 years ago when the accommodation had a fish pond - not a good idea.

We get hundreds of May flies here because of the high water table - I was really !!!!!!! about daddy-longlegs when I first moved in as they were everywhere in the kitchen, bathroom, wobbling about on the ceiling in the bedroom. Then I got used to them and barely notice.

If you aren't keen on creepy-crawlies - live away from water.

TGOHF

Grandiose said:

What a horrible polling question, with all those attached statements.

Can only be a matter of time before we see Survation polls on other great Ed wheezes - Energy price caps !

"Would it be nice to see a government enforced price cap on electricity ?"

richardDodd

JW..Cut back on the pies..

AndreaParma_82

It looks like CCHQ is trying to save Ann McIntosh
http://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/news/10582777.Rethink_ordered_in_MP_s_re_selection_fight/?ref=twt&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Dr Taylor announces he will stand again in Wyre Forest. IIRC he's around 80 year old.

isam

"Interestingly the East Coast line serves eastern parts of England..."

Well I'll be darned!

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Grandiose said:

What a horrible polling question, with all those attached statements.

Can only be a matter of time before we see Survation polls on other great Ed wheezes - Energy price caps !

"Would it be nice to see a government enforced price cap on electricity ?"

How about a poll on cutting fuel prices in Danny Alexander's constituency.

Peeved that again Labour are missing out on leading the way on a nice leftie policy ?

Pulpstar

Straw office poll

3 of my office coworkers visit the Sun "Best one going but I won't pay for it."

"Switch to the Mirror/Mail" was another response.

3 'page viewers', 3 Non payers.

Note I'm not writing it off, it could also mean a small jump in their physical sales too. We shall see in the fullness of time. Interesting experiment as it is the first Red Top to go paywall.
Also interesting to note it is one of my colleague's 'first' homepage.

RichardNabavi

Apologies for linking to a Robert Peston article, but this one on the likely sale of part of the taxpayer's stake in Lloyds is quite informative:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23528898

The share price is now about 73.8p - well into positive territory.