politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Labour share of the vote in 2020
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Since London pays the highest amount of tax, who exactly is subsidised then ? Scotland, NI and Cornwall ? Really ?Sean_F said:
At a guess, I imagine that all the counties in the South, except Cornwall, plus Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northants., Warwickshire, Rutland, Leicestershire, Cheshire, North Yorkshire, and East Yorkshire would be net contributors to the public purse, when the budget is close to balance.surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.0 -
Surbiton Maybe you would like to pay the real cost of the food on your plate...0
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We are spending money on flood defences. Whether it's worth it or not is another matter.surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
2.3bn was announced for a 6 year programme of 1400 schemes. This was just about 12 months ago. This rate of spend is pretty much in line with the last 10 years as far as I can see, so has not been affected by spending elsewhere.
It's worth noting that satellite measurements by whatever source you care to take them show no atmospheric global warming for up to the last 15 - 18 years or so, so whatever causes the current rainfall it cannot be that 'global warming' is causing the atmosphere to hold more water.0 -
LR reportedly winning in Provence on 56% of voteSpeedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
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I don't think that UKIP is going to disappear after any referendum, it's a party of protest of those who are right wing but too poor to vote Tory or who don't like blairism in general but are not left wing.DavidL said:
What is your evidence that the majority of the current membership of the Tory party are Eurosceptic? I would be interested to see it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Cameron's successor is IMHO likely to be a Eurosceptic, because that is where most of the members are. If Cameron does step down in 2018 we are more likely to have going into GE 2020.CornishBlue said:
The Tory party is NOT going to split - I keep hearing this and it is the most ludicrous wishful thinking from the Left/UKIP.surbiton said:
There could also be two Tory parties after the referendum ! Wouldn't it be better if we had AMS ?Pong said:
20% is a bit low, 22.5% perhaps?surbiton said:
Only 50% to be between 20% - 40% ? The lowest ever [ in the last 80 years ] being 27%Pong said:What's labour's vote share going to be in 2020?
I'm roughly X% confident it will be between Y% & Z%
X, Y-Z;
99%, 0%-60%
75%, 17.5%-45%
50%, 20%-40%
Basically, I dunno. These are strange times. 2020 may well be an even stranger time.
Can anyone predict the 50% confidence band with any more certainty?
I wouldn't have it any higher than the 24.3% Lab got in Scotland.
4 years is a hell of a long time long time and politics is speeding up. Parties can collapse in real-time.
There is no God-given right for the labour party to exist.
If anything, whatever the outcome, and once things settle down, the Tories will benefit from a UKIP that has lost its core/original raison d'être... and then UKIP will no doubt focus mainly on immigration and that will hurt Labour more in t'North.
A Labour party led by Corbyn or a hard left successor to him.
A Conservative party led by a Eurosceptic and probably more right wing than Cameron.
A UKIP party that after the referendum has no main purpose (In or out the EC), those votes are more likely going to the Conservatives.
Which leaves the question as to whether we are going to have a significant europhile/centrist/Blairite/Progress/establishment/statist party come together? Will it be a new party or will it be formed from the Lib Dems? As an army it will have the Officers at the start, but will it have many troops and the finance?
I think that this was once undoubtedly true but given the growth of UKIP and the number of sceptics that left I really doubt it is now. If able people such as SeanF came back to the party it might be different but I think that will only happen if UKIP becomes even more embarrassing than it is now.0 -
Fair enough. But I'm fairly confident there will be others to which my comment "oh, if only Cameron had negotiated X I'd've voted STAY, but he didn't, such a pity..." will be appositeLukeInLondon said:
The quote you bolded was referring to what was said in about 2011 when the UK tried to negotiate on the budget, and the rest of the EU criticised us, not the current discussions. As I mentioned earlier, the significant part of this renegotiation is whether the Eurogroup will be able to force new law through on its own or not. That is still all to play for. As I'm saying this before the result is known, I don't think I can be criticised for having a variable X!viewcode said:
But we are negotiating a change. You may consider it inadequate[1] but the negotiation is ongoing and will produce a resultLukeInLondon said:
I always find that I go into any discussion on the EU starting off pro-EU and the discussion putting me off. I find it frustrating why there's always a reason a reform the UK wants can't be done. We can't negotiate a change because right now they're having to deal with the Eurozone crisis. Then when that's done, we can't talk about reform because the migration crisis is happening. We can't negotiate migration limits because it's one of the 'four fundamental freedoms'. We can't put in place changes to benefits because it goes against a 'founding principle'. A treaty amendment can't be made to protect non-Euro members because it would be too much of a convoluted process for it to happen. There's a point where you think "well, what the bloody hell is allowed then!?"CornishBlue said:
It really would be a lot simpler to just leave and create a new relationship from scratch.LukeInLondon said:@Edmund in Tokyo
If treaty change isn't possible we should at least have a legally binding agreement separate from the big treaties. If we avoid the agreement being legally binding because we don't trust oppositions to co-operate with them, then that suggests the agreement wouldn't be upheld should one of those oppositions get into power.
The other option would be a binding agreement that it will be integrated into the next treaty, which should come along shortly to sort out the Eurozone. We could sign it into law that if this isn't done in X years, then it automatically triggers another UK referendum.
[1] given the tenor of this board, I assume everybody will clasp their hand to their forehead and say "oh, if only Cameron had negotiated X I'd've voted STAY, but he didn't, such a pity..." where X = 10% more of Y
and Y = whatever Cameron negotiates.0 -
Pay the farmers even more ? No, I would import it from Ireland !richardDodd said:Surbiton Maybe you would like to pay the real cost of the food on your plate...
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As a Shire dweller, I can't wait for that there London to get independence.0
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Who is reporting that?Alanbrooke said:
LR reportedly winning in Provence on 56% of voteSpeedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
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If anyone needs reminding why Yvette Cooper did not/will not become Labour Leader, then they need to watch her interview on the Sunday Politics with Andrew Neil.0
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you subsidise Irish farmers via the CAP.surbiton said:
Pay the farmers even more ? No, I would import it from Ireland !richardDodd said:Surbiton Maybe you would like to pay the real cost of the food on your plate...
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The opinion pollsters also predicted EICIPM!Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
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Surbiton Irish Farmers are subsidised too..CAP...If you don't want to pay the farming community for the food you eat Then you will have a poor choice at the supermarket...almost none in fact...maybe you should get an allotment..grow your own... apparently you think it is easy..0
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Anyone who disdains the ability of a country to feed itself has a pitiably poor grasp on the cyclical nature of history.0
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As a future "FTS" (First time seller) I'm in favour of anything that helps grease the liquidity along of buyers.viewcode said:
At the expense of othersPulpstar said:The Help to Buy ISA obviously won't be enough on it's own, but it puts FTBs in a position that is better than they otherwise would have been.
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You make public fools of yourselves.surbiton said:
We pay the taxes, they spend it !ThreeQuidder said:
People in London and surrounds need to remember that we are a minority of the country.surbiton said:
£650 max. What interest rates do these ISAs offer ? What other conditions ? In London and surrounds, this is practically useless.Innocent_Abroad said:
If the deposit is 15k in total, what's the maximum price? £300k? How far out of London do you have to go to find a 2-bed for that money? Lincolnshire?Plato_Says said:Whatever one thinks of Osborne's personal ambitions - he seems keen to prise those soft centre/right-Labour voters off to the Tories.
I saw an advert earlier today about the Homeowners ISA - for every £200 deposited, you'll get £50 from HMG up to £3k.
It looked a very attractive and simple offer to me.Tom said:Speedy, don't think we are disagreeing here. But there are severe diminishing returns on attracting leftish Lib Dems (are there now any left?) whereas i reckon there are still a lot of centrist/rightish Labour voters who are sticking with Labour for the time being. As that poll shows Labour below its 2015 level i don't see much upside.
We watch.
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FWIW, the autoregressive component of the L&N model suggests a near-tie in the popular vote at the next election, with the actual outcome dependent on the popularity or otherwise of the PM at that time.
New PMs tend to get a bounce, however...0 -
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
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Northern Ireland, Merseyside, Cumbria, the North East, Wales, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Birmingham/Coventry and the surrounding conurbation, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Wales.surbiton said:
Since London pays the highest amount of tax, who exactly is subsidised then ? Scotland, NI and Cornwall ? Really ?Sean_F said:
At a guess, I imagine that all the counties in the South, except Cornwall, plus Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northants., Warwickshire, Rutland, Leicestershire, Cheshire, North Yorkshire, and East Yorkshire would be net contributors to the public purse, when the budget is close to balance.surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.0 -
If you're a future first-time-seller, then you're a future second-time-buyerPulpstar said:
As a future "FTS" (First time seller) I'm in favour of anything that helps grease the liquidity along of buyers.viewcode said:
At the expense of othersPulpstar said:The Help to Buy ISA obviously won't be enough on it's own, but it puts FTBs in a position that is better than they otherwise would have been.
So, here's the question: "Have you had a look at the prices of the next layer up?"
see www.zoopla.co.uk0 -
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.0 -
This is the first time in history that your L&N model is predicting a better picture for Labour than I do.RodCrosby said:FWIW, the autoregressive component of the L&N model suggests a near-tie in the popular vote at the next election, with the actual outcome dependent on the popularity or otherwise of the PM at that time.
New PMs tend to get a bounce, however...0 -
Radio Londres @RadioLondres_fr 2m2 minutes ago View translation
Dans le Nord, la nuance de bleu ne serait ne serait pas Marine.
Is that an indication that the centre-right cannot surpass Marine Le Pen in the North?0 -
You can buy houses in Bicester, Oxfordshire, from £250k. Wallingford ditto. And Didcot.Innocent_Abroad said:
If the deposit is 15k in total, what's the maximum price? £300k? How far out of London do you have to go to find a 2-bed for that money? Lincolnshire?Plato_Says said:Whatever one thinks of Osborne's personal ambitions - he seems keen to prise those soft centre/right-Labour voters off to the Tories.
I saw an advert earlier today about the Homeowners ISA - for every £200 deposited, you'll get £50 from HMG up to £3k.
It looked a very attractive and simple offer to me.Tom said:Speedy, don't think we are disagreeing here. But there are severe diminishing returns on attracting leftish Lib Dems (are there now any left?) whereas i reckon there are still a lot of centrist/rightish Labour voters who are sticking with Labour for the time being. As that poll shows Labour below its 2015 level i don't see much upside.
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I think it's a real dereliction on the part of the PS to disenfranchise their supporters in two Regions for the next 6 years. Left wing voters will now be represented exclusively by FN (who have won hundreds of seats across France, regardless whether they win any Presidencies) or LR.kle4 said:
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
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They pay their rates in rich counties but use London services during the week.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.0 -
From memory, the centres of Dorset, Cornwall and Devon are not within 100 miles of the centre of London. Wiltshire is, tho.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.0 -
And yet, Cornwall, Lincolnshire and Cumbria votes Tory. They probably think they are rich ! Poor sods !Sean_F said:
Northern Ireland, Merseyside, Cumbria, the North East, Wales, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Birmingham/Coventry and the surrounding conurbation, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Wales.surbiton said:
Since London pays the highest amount of tax, who exactly is subsidised then ? Scotland, NI and Cornwall ? Really ?Sean_F said:
At a guess, I imagine that all the counties in the South, except Cornwall, plus Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northants., Warwickshire, Rutland, Leicestershire, Cheshire, North Yorkshire, and East Yorkshire would be net contributors to the public purse, when the budget is close to balance.surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.0 -
Crossrail starts well out of London. It goes from Reading to Gravesend. It was first proposed in 1941, so it's hardly showing favoritism.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.
PS Shropshire has a new town called Telford. It's linked to the rest of the world by the M54.0 -
Will there be any exit poll in France ?0
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London has subsidised the north east to the tune of three points this afternoon. Howay the Toon!0
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Bollocks. Predictable as ever.0
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False consciousness, naturally enough.surbiton said:
And yet, Cornwall, Lincolnshire and Cumbria votes Tory. They probably think they are rich ! Poor sods !Sean_F said:
Northern Ireland, Merseyside, Cumbria, the North East, Wales, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Birmingham/Coventry and the surrounding conurbation, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Wales.surbiton said:
Since London pays the highest amount of tax, who exactly is subsidised then ? Scotland, NI and Cornwall ? Really ?Sean_F said:
At a guess, I imagine that all the counties in the South, except Cornwall, plus Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northants., Warwickshire, Rutland, Leicestershire, Cheshire, North Yorkshire, and East Yorkshire would be net contributors to the public purse, when the budget is close to balance.surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.0 -
Ha, ha, ha ! Spurs can never be fourth.SandyRentool said:London has subsidised the north east to the tune of three points this afternoon. Howay the Toon!
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There is an actual danger for the french socialists in the parliamentary elections, ever since they cut the presidential term from 7 years to 5 it coincides with the presidential ones with a few weeks delay. That has an effect that the party that wins the presidential elections get's a honeymoon period which results in domination of the parliamentary elections.Sean_F said:
I think it's a real dereliction on the part of the PS to disenfranchise their supporters in two Regions for the next 6 years. Left wing voters will now be represented exclusively by FN (who have won hundreds of seats across France, regardless whether they win any Presidencies) or LR.kle4 said:
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
Due to the use of the presidential system for parliament too, you can see why opinion polls predict a complete LD style wipeout for the French Socialist party, since they will come third in almost all constituencies. Therefore there is talk of Hollande changing the system to PR for parliament in order to avoid a wipeout.0 -
First estimations from France reported by Belgium media.....the majority of polling places close at 7 PM...but they can't be reported in France until 8 PM when the rest ends voting...however they are already counting...
anyway they indicate it doesn't look like FN has won any presidency0 -
Yes, and the Thameslink Programme (originally Thameslink 2000) was delayed 20 years too because people couldn't see past "we don't need it at the moment" until it was too late. Hopefully HS2 isn't allowed to go the same way.flightpath01 said:Crossrail starts well out of London. It goes from Reading to Gravesend. It was first proposed in 1941, so it's hardly showing favoritism.
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The talk is that they lost in Calais and in the south by 55-45.AndreaParma_82 said:First estimations from France reported by Belgium media.....the majority of polling places close at 7 PM...but they can't be reported in France until 8 PM when the rest ends voting...however they are already counting...
anyway they indicate it doesn't look like FN has won any presidency
The Centre-right will win all regions but 2 which will go to the socialists, Sarkozy's gamble that the socialists will be forced to support him against Le Pen payed off.0 -
Don't forget Shenfield via Stratford, Ilford and Romfordflightpath01 said:
Crossrail starts well out of London. It goes from Reading to Gravesend. It was first proposed in 1941, so it's hardly showing favoritism.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.
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Well, if FN get in, I assume that many Poles will be exited.surbiton said:Will there be any exit poll in France ?
See what I did there? Polls/poles? Exploit a homonym for comic purposes, with the juxaposition of sound and meaning creating the dissonance on which all comedy arises...
..as I said in the Glasgow Empire...0 -
I'm all for Crossrail - my point is that we as a nation pay for stuff in rural and urban areas. The idea that rural areas are a drain on the nation's finances though is stupid. Even if in monetary terms (to the Treasury) it was the case, you still have to factor in that most of the nation's resources come from/are processed in rural areas, including food, water, energy, waste...ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, and the Thameslink Programme (originally Thameslink 2000) was delayed 20 years too because people couldn't see past "we don't need it at the moment" until it was too late. Hopefully HS2 isn't allowed to go the same way.flightpath01 said:Crossrail starts well out of London. It goes from Reading to Gravesend. It was first proposed in 1941, so it's hardly showing favoritism.
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And if they change to PR, that will give FN scores of seats.Speedy said:
There is an actual danger for the french socialists in the parliamentary elections, ever since they cut the presidential term from 7 years to 5 it coincides with the presidential ones with a few weeks delay. That has an effect that the party that wins the presidential elections get's a honeymoon period which results in domination of the parliamentary elections.Sean_F said:
I think it's a real dereliction on the part of the PS to disenfranchise their supporters in two Regions for the next 6 years. Left wing voters will now be represented exclusively by FN (who have won hundreds of seats across France, regardless whether they win any Presidencies) or LR.kle4 said:
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
Due to the use of the presidential system for parliament too, you can see why opinion polls predict a complete LD style wipeout for the French Socialist party, since they will come third in almost all constituencies. Therefore there is talk of Hollande changing the system to PR for parliament in order to avoid a wipeout.0 -
It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
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You see the socialist dilemma, support the centre-right to exclude the right from political representation and get wiped-out, or allow the right political representation and remain a political force.Sean_F said:
And if they change to PR, that will give FN scores of seats.Speedy said:
There is an actual danger for the french socialists in the parliamentary elections, ever since they cut the presidential term from 7 years to 5 it coincides with the presidential ones with a few weeks delay. That has an effect that the party that wins the presidential elections get's a honeymoon period which results in domination of the parliamentary elections.Sean_F said:
I think it's a real dereliction on the part of the PS to disenfranchise their supporters in two Regions for the next 6 years. Left wing voters will now be represented exclusively by FN (who have won hundreds of seats across France, regardless whether they win any Presidencies) or LR.kle4 said:
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
Due to the use of the presidential system for parliament too, you can see why opinion polls predict a complete LD style wipeout for the French Socialist party, since they will come third in almost all constituencies. Therefore there is talk of Hollande changing the system to PR for parliament in order to avoid a wipeout.
So far they prefer political suicide if it means preventing the french right to be represented in politics.0 -
The high income commuters are national benefactors - they pay huge amounts in income tax and pay huge chunks of their already taxed wages in rail fares!surbiton said:
They pay their rates in rich counties but use London services during the week.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.0 -
BBC1 coverage of Spurs v Newcastle has been move to 5.30 tomorrow.0
-
Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?viewcode said:
Well, if FN get in, I assume that many Poles will be exited.surbiton said:Will there be any exit poll in France ?
See what I did there? Polls/poles? Exploit a homonym for comic purposes, with the juxaposition of sound and meaning creating the dissonance on which all comedy arises...
..as I said in the Glasgow Empire...
He became a Voodoo Pole
0 -
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
0 -
Belgium RTBF confirms Les Républicains win in
Pays-de-la-Loire
Rhône-Alpes-Auvergne
Gilles Simeoni (Per la Corsica) wins in Corse0 -
Rail fares , which we subsidise.CornishBlue said:
The high income commuters are national benefactors - they pay huge amounts in income tax and pay huge chunks of their already taxed wages in rail fares!surbiton said:
They pay their rates in rich counties but use London services during the week.CornishBlue said:
Last time I was in Shropshire I didn't notice a £umpteen billion underground railway under construction ("paid by us") nor huge council estates of scroungers (natives or new arrivals).surbiton said:
Shires, pay the taxes. You are having a laugh ! Agricultural subsidies...Red diesel....miles and miles of roads with three cars.... the same postal charges......flood defence costs after building houses in river valleys. All paid by us !CornishBlue said:
Ha. The government rather spends billions on flood defences all over the bloody world, but not in the English shires... you know, the shires that not only elect the government but also fund it.surbiton said:
They have enough problems coping with floods and waiting for government funds to pour in !CornishBlue said:
Well, they're hardly going to occur in Somerset or Shropshire or Cumbria.Plato_Says said:Evening Standard
More than half of all new cases of FGM occurred in London, official figures show
https://t.co/7bl1DAezJ1 https://t.co/0vj3rKZ8wi
You import third world people, you get third world problems.
Many of the counties near London (ie within 100 miles of the centre of the Metropolis) are also inhabited by those who earn the most in the country and pay the most in income tax etc.0 -
I don't hear Val de Loire but Languedoc as a Socialist hold.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire0 -
Belgium TV was giving 4 regions to PS. So the 4th is likely Languedoc and co.
They gave Centre-VdL to them but other sources says it's too close to callSpeedy said:
I don't hear Val de Loire but Languedoc as a Socialist hold.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire0 -
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.0 -
One thing I'm fairly sure of, irrespective of what Labour does, I'm fairly sure an Osborne-led Tories in 2020 would be down on the Tories' voteshare this year. Much as PBTories might like to think their victory this year was due to the public being all in ecstasy at right-wing austerity economics, the reality is that for many swing voters it was as simple as people thinking Cameron "looked the part" on the world stage and seemed like a decent enough bloke for a politician who you could have a drink with - there is just no conceivable argument that Osborne would appeal to people that Cameron couldn't.
That said, it would be distinctly possible for a Corbyn-led Labour to drop in votes at the same time as Osborne's Tories (I think an Osborne v Corbyn match-up could actually be the kiss of life for the Lib Dems, as Tim Farron might seem refreshingly likeable and sane if he's compared to those two).0 -
Sarkozy now knows he needs to offer nothing to the French Left. The French Left is his bitch.Speedy said:
You see the socialist dilemma, support the centre-right to exclude the right from political representation and get wiped-out, or allow the right political representation and remain a political force.Sean_F said:
And if they change to PR, that will give FN scores of seats.Speedy said:
There is an actual danger for the french socialists in the parliamentary elections, ever since they cut the presidential term from 7 years to 5 it coincides with the presidential ones with a few weeks delay. That has an effect that the party that wins the presidential elections get's a honeymoon period which results in domination of the parliamentary elections.Sean_F said:
I think it's a real dereliction on the part of the PS to disenfranchise their supporters in two Regions for the next 6 years. Left wing voters will now be represented exclusively by FN (who have won hundreds of seats across France, regardless whether they win any Presidencies) or LR.kle4 said:
I actually feel a little sorry for them if that is the case. Irrespective of a party's worth, it must be hard to have considerable support but not enough to overcome combined dislike of all others even if it is earned.Speedy said:A reminder that today is the second round of the French Regional elections, the opinion pollsters expect that the FN will fail to win a single region.
Due to the use of the presidential system for parliament too, you can see why opinion polls predict a complete LD style wipeout for the French Socialist party, since they will come third in almost all constituencies. Therefore there is talk of Hollande changing the system to PR for parliament in order to avoid a wipeout.
So far they prefer political suicide if it means preventing the french right to be represented in politics.
0 -
It looks CVdL is something PS 35 LR 34 FN 30 at the moment. So too close to be safely predicted right nowSpeedy said:
I don't hear Val de Loire but Languedoc as a Socialist hold.0 -
Why don't the French have an instant runoff?0
-
I think that in the LibDems' current state the reaction to someone defecting to them would be amusement rather than fury.Beverley_C said:As a purely random thought .... if Labour MPs wanted to split away from Corbyn's Labour, the "conventional wisdom" is SDP Mk 2. What if, instead of that, they defected to the Lib Dems? An established party that is not a million miles away from the Labour Right and could do with the extra MPs as a way of beefing up their Westminster presence.
0 -
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.0 -
-
So you were willing to write about French AV.. but not glorious British AV.... I see.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
0 -
The UK AV thread is mostly written. I'm really proud of it.RobD said:
So you were willing to write about French AV.. but not glorious British AV.... I see.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
But the French one would have been better, I had mocked the French and UKIP all in one thread, would have been glorious.0 -
Official projections in 2 minutes...0
-
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN0 -
Bourgogne France Comté is a total 3 way fight0
-
0
-
Well the Tories have been doing quite well in the localsEPG said:
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN.. although not the EU election as your observation notes. 0 -
tie in Normandy so far...0
-
Dr. Parma, that's interesting. Do the French use 'comte' to mean 'count' for voting as well in the nobility sense of the word?
[Did a tiny bit of research into this for writing purposes].
Mr. D, an unfair comparison as no other country in the world had Ed Miliband leading the opposition.0 -
There are differences of course, the FN gets 30-40% rather than 10-20% of UKIP and the french have a 2 round system for most elections rather just FPTP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
So in France the threshold for victory will always be around 50% for the FN, while in Britain the threshold for UKIP would be around 35-40%.
Though I expect that if even UKIP did score 35-40% then most Labour voters would vote Tory to exclude UKIP just like in France (which would lead to the collapse of Labour just like the collapse of the Socialists) but not immediately and not in all constituencies since it's impossible to know how good UKIP will do in each 650 constituencies on GE day and there is no second round to galvanize left wingers against them.
In 2015 it did happen in constituencies where people already knew that UKIP could probably win their seats, thanks to Lord A's polls, and voted tactically against them, but in 2020 you won't have any Lord A polls after the fiasco of 2015.0 -
The last incumbent UK government was two parties and overall they lost a lot of votes. But it was concentrated on one side.RobD said:
Well the Tories have been doing quite well in the localsEPG said:
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN.. although not the EU election as your observation notes.0 -
Xavier Bertrand (who have beaten Marine): it is a victory of Northern people tonight. I thank you voters who protected this beautiful region.0
-
The best way to pay the farmers for the food we eat is by paying the price you think the produce is worth! There is no need to distort it all with subsidies on top. Farmers and retirees seem to be the two special interests that no-one ever dares to confront.richardDodd said:Surbiton Irish Farmers are subsidised too..CAP...If you don't want to pay the farming community for the food you eat Then you will have a poor choice at the supermarket...almost none in fact...maybe you should get an allotment..grow your own... apparently you think it is easy..
0 -
Le Pen beaten 58-42. Her deputy beaten 47-38 in Alsace (the left didn't withdraw there). Currntly looks like 5 centre-right, 5 centre-left, 2 toss-ups and one Corsican. FN not within 10 points anywhere so far.0
-
-
First projections gives PS ahead by a very small margin in both Centre - Val de Loire and Bourgogne & Co.0
-
I think Bertrand just said "vive le Nord Pas de Calais"0
-
The FN's chance will be in 2022 not 2017, Sarkozy is already detested by most french voters (he's the first french president to lose re-election) but they still prefer him over the FN, but the future is not rosy for France, if the centre-right collapses it won't go to the socialists who have collapsed already, but to the FN.EPG said:
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN
And the FN only needs an extra 10% to win outright.0 -
What is beautiful in his region?AndreaParma_82 said:Xavier Bertrand (who have beaten Marine): it is a victory of Northern people tonight. I thank you voters who protected this beautiful region.
0 -
0
-
The new Eurostar trainsSpeedy said:
What is beautiful in his region?AndreaParma_82 said:Xavier Bertrand (who have beaten Marine): it is a victory of Northern people tonight. I thank you voters who protected this beautiful region.
0 -
I love how this is being spun as a massive defeat for the far-right rather than an unconfronted surge due to the refusal of the established parties to properly address certain issues. If it carries on this is an unignorable stepping stone to new policies, hardly a setback.0
-
@Sean_Fear
Could you liase with @Pulpstar. If you send him the money from our bet, it will net off my losses on the LibDem deposits bet :-)0 -
British AV, 2011:RobD said:
So you were willing to write about French AV.. but not glorious British AV.... I see.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
68 % against
32% in favour0 -
I don't think the FN have ever got into the 30s on any national election in France. They got 28% in the first round this time.Speedy said:
There are differences of course, the FN gets 30-40% rather than 10-20% of UKIP and the french have a 2 round system for most elections rather just FPTP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
So in France the threshold for victory will always be around 50% for the FN, while in Britain the threshold for UKIP would be around 35-40%.
Though I expect that if even UKIP did score 35-40% then most Labour voters would vote Tory to exclude UKIP just like in France (which would lead to the collapse of Labour just like the collapse of the Socialists) but not immediately and not in all constituencies since it's impossible to know how good UKIP will do in each 650 constituencies on GE day and there is no second round to galvanize left wingers against them.
In 2015 it did happen in constituencies where people already knew that UKIP could probably win their seats, thanks to Lord A's polls, and voted tactically against them, but in 2020 you won't have any Lord A polls after the fiasco of 2015.0 -
Hear, hear.LukeInLondon said:
The best way to pay the farmers for the food we eat is by paying the price you think the produce is worth! There is no need to distort it all with subsidies on top. Farmers and retirees seem to be the two special interests that no-one ever dares to confront.richardDodd said:Surbiton Irish Farmers are subsidised too..CAP...If you don't want to pay the farming community for the food you eat Then you will have a poor choice at the supermarket...almost none in fact...maybe you should get an allotment..grow your own... apparently you think it is easy..
0 -
In the last few days I have read various comments on here and on the internet and Twitter from people claiming that "XYZ number of people don't believe in freedom of speech". The XYZ seems to be the number of people who have signed the petition demanding that Donald Trump should be banned from entering the UK.
It is bizarre and incomprehensible to me that some people seem to be equating the two issues as if they are the same thing. Since when does the maintaining the security of national borders mean restricting free speech? It's almost as if the internet is a virus which causes some people to become mentally deranged and illogical.0 -
Yes, but that was before second preferences were counted.Sunil_Prasannan said:
British AV, 2011:RobD said:
So you were willing to write about French AV.. but not glorious British AV.... I see.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I was going to do a thread about that today, but time got away from me.RobD said:Why don't the French have an instant runoff?
I also compared the Front National to UKIP.
Both get screwed by the electoral voting system and aren't very transfer friendly. They don't get tactical voters, just tactical voters against them.
68 % against
32% in favour0 -
Compte is countMorris_Dancer said:Dr. Parma, that's interesting. Do the French use 'comte' to mean 'count' for voting as well in the nobility sense of the word?
[Did a tiny bit of research into this for writing purposes].
Mr. D, an unfair comparison as no other country in the world had Ed Miliband leading the opposition.
Conté is county
Think the nobility one is Conte0 -
More likely they will replace Sarko with PS in that caseSpeedy said:
The FN's chance will be in 2022 not 2017, Sarkozy is already detested by most french voters (he's the first french president to lose re-election) but they still prefer him over the FN, but the future is not rosy for France, if the centre-right collapses it won't go to the socialists who have collapsed already, but to the FN.EPG said:
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN
And the FN only needs an extra 10% to win outright.
The French centre-left are "collapsing" so much that they have already won 4 regions and may win 6 out of 12. Some collapse. The FN have no regions. So this proves they will definitely win in 2022 I guess0 -
It'll certainly fall IMO.0
-
Sure.rcs1000 said:@Sean_Fear
Could you liase with @Pulpstar. If you send him the money from our bet, it will net off my losses on the LibDem deposits bet :-)
0 -
Morris
I think Comte is the nobility word...le Comte de Chartres
As said by Freggles the verb counting is compter
I think they use the dépouillement term for the counting process...depouillment des voix0 -
Overall, though, the Right/Left split is about 60/36%.EPG said:
More likely they will replace Sarko with PS in that caseSpeedy said:
The FN's chance will be in 2022 not 2017, Sarkozy is already detested by most french voters (he's the first french president to lose re-election) but they still prefer him over the FN, but the future is not rosy for France, if the centre-right collapses it won't go to the socialists who have collapsed already, but to the FN.EPG said:
It's no coincidence that the incumbent President of France is a Socialist, and the Socialists are doing badly. Since 2007, incumbents in almost every country have almost always done badly in second-order elections like locals, European Parliament, midterm Congressional, etc etc etc. Yet we keep being surprised by the phenomenon, when we should just discount the current incumbent party hugely in (only) second-order elections.Speedy said:
The socialists never have a chance, they are a party on UKIP levels of support.surbiton said:
This means the LR candidate will win in 2017 unless there is a dramatic improvement in Hollande's rating.AndreaParma_82 said:It looks Socialists held
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire
Sarkozy looks to be yet again french president since I can't envision Le Pen winning the presidency on the first round, and the socialists will support anyone but Le Pen just like Le Pen would support anyone but the socialists.
Ergo, center-right domination in France will continue until either there is political reform that throws out the negative vote aspect of the 2 rounds, or the FN wins outright on the first rounds. Since the first 2 parties will always be the FN and the centre-right.
tl;dr if Sarko wins then locals will be PS v FN
And the FN only needs an extra 10% to win outright.
The French centre-left are "collapsing" so much that they have already won 4 regions and may win 6 out of 12. Some collapse. The FN have no regions. So this proves they will definitely win in 2022 I guess0 -
(Two threads ago)
Yesterday I went to the monthly Poetry Hour at Croydon library. The theme was "art" and my poem was about the paintings of Piet Mondrian. While I was writing it, I considered the thought that a Jackson Pollock painting is a Piet Mondrian painting which has been released from prison.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should see the shirt I've ordered for the Christmas do next Friday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.
Someone said it were if Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunken fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs0 -
http://tinyurl.com/pnaucje
Turns out that over 50% of the signatures on the infamous "keep Trump out" petition came from outside the UK. I'm shocked. So, so shocked.0
This discussion has been closed.