politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2016 London Mayoral race: Tories open their anti-Sadiq
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2016 London Mayoral race: Tories open their anti-Sadiq negative campaign
Like many PBers I’m on Sadiq Khan for London Mayor at longish odds following the excellent HenryG tip here two and a half years ago. My best price is 50/1 with PaddyPower so I’ve got a reasonably sized financial interest in the outcome.
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"Vote Zac Goldsmith, he likes his chicken Kentucky fried"
Heathrow makes Zac a complete lock for the Tory mayoralty candidacy methinks (99 -> 99.9% probability of him being the candidate on the day)
Still on Zac overall.
Since neither of these are very big personalities (in the way Johnson and Livingstone were), one would expect the result this time will largely reflect however strong/weak the Labour/Tory brands are at the time.
Khan himself is aware of his own negatives - as can be seen by the recent speech he gave about Islamist extremism, post-Paris.
I received through the letter box this weekend a two page spread from Zac. All about him and his policies. On the back, it listed 4 negatives about Khan. Chicken outlets was not one of them.
I loathe the Top Trumps Identity Competition approach adopted by Labour, the view that people should be seen and approached only as part of groups (based on one shared usually involuntary characteristic). It was an approach which Livingstone perfected and which is poisonous to harmonious social cohesion. My biggest concern with Khan is whether he is in that Livingstonian tradition - which now seems uppermost within Labour - or not. If he is, he's not getting my vote.
Incidentally, kudos to Messrs Llama and John_M for their posts on the previous thread on this topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=078Ehi1F7kY
At the end of the clip she hints that she would quit the party if he became leader.
It is about issues, and principles:
- Apparently changing mind about Heathrow
- Nominating Corbo but then attacking him
- Night tube: pro despite connections with fervent antis.
Lynton is doing a STUNNING job already.
Central planning and setting prices of good didn't work for goods in the USSR or Venezuela and has never really worked successfully when it is tried, leading to too much of some things and shortages of others. Interest rates are a 'price' the price of money like all other goods should also be set at the interaction of supply of and demand (savers and borrowers) and not set by a committee, however talented we think the Monetary Policy Committee are, they fundamentally have the same problems that the central planers in the USSR.
If I have whetted anybody's appetite then see a simple explanation here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrCMUBppDd4
Or if you what a more amusing video of Austrian economics V Keynes .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
It must be a contender for the weakest attack ad ever?
A Muslim who joins the police force is a police officer and should deal with all people without fear or favour in accordance with the law. His religion is - or should be - irrelevant to his role as an officer. He or she is not there to represent anyone or any one group because the role of the police is not to represent people but to keep the peace and enforce the law, treating all equally under the law and in accordance with the law.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2755035/This-man-s-stalked-seven-years-t-police-stop-A-horrifying-account-life-lived-fear-savage-indictment-UK-justice-NADINE-DORRIES-MP.html
but didn't get much sympathy from leftwing journalists at the time:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-mcsmiths-diary-when-stalking-isn-t-really-what-you-would-call-stalking-9736760.html
You wonder whether they now feel any more sympathetic towards her given the treatment of some Labour MPs?
What they don't have this time is Ken's unrepentant abrasiveness and the Evening Standard running effectively a two year campaign against the Labour candidate which made it much easier for Lynton to do the negative stuff without its being associated with Boris. Much harder this time and i don't think Zak is a particularly strong candidate. Sadiq is also fairly ruthless and rarely for a politician aware of his weaknesses and is trying to deal with them.
I have a little bit of money on Zak but i reckon Khan is 60/40 to win at present.
Individuals don't just say more Muslims/Blacks/women etc should join the Police force no reason. I know in regard to encouraging more Black people to join the Police Force it was related to the historically strained relationships between Black people in London and the Police Force.
I'd expect it's the build up to a more serious sounding double standard like knocking about w islamic extremists then making a speech warning against islamic extremism
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/hillary-clinton-trump-rubio-cruz-216516
When a person puts on the uniform their personal views, their personal characteristics should be put to one side, in the same way that I have no interest whatever in the personal views, background, religion or sex life of a doctor treating me, merely his or her ability as a doctor.
On Khan, I'm sure they'll have better attack ads to come, but he seems reasonable on the face of it, though if I recall my reaction to his victory speech he seemed lacking in charisma. But if Corbyn is putting off droves of Labour voters, he should be doing ok unless the Tories can damage him significantly, and being a flip flopper probably won't do that.
@Wanderer I personally do find Osborne (along with IDS) to be the most unlikable Conservative on the front bench.
@AlistairMeeks I'm sorry to hear that. Not surprised at the behaviour of Corbynites though.
However, I can totally understand that people wouldn't think quotas were a good idea - but, even if you think it's not a good idea, calling Khan a "threat to London" or comparing him to Islamic extremists, like some PBTories have done, seems like a huge overreaction to me.
I quite like Osborne. I know people who have worked with him who say that he is a much nicer person, more rounded,funnier than he appears. That may not be enough to make him a good PM but I too don't get why people dislike him.
Mind you, I have met Bercow and he was much nicer than his public image. In some roles, politics often forces people to hide their full selves, which can be a pity.
What organizations need to do is examine their recruitment process (including outreach programs and advertising) to ensure that there is no systemic bias against people who differ from the existing workforce norms. That's particularly important during the paper sift and interview process.
For Tories, not including Benn (who saw his stock with Tories rise this past week), who's the most likable Shadow Cabinet figure? I don't know many of them so am finding it hard to say. Maybe Chris Bryant?
Thanks for that, very interesting. I'm not an economist but something feels very wrong about our economy. The irony is that house prices are so high that I'm saving as much as I can irrespective of the low interest rates. House prices should very much be part of the inflation assessment, but our politicians - of all colours - seem to think that inflation is bad...unless it is house price inflation.
Or to be European about it, its the English version of Italian clientilismo.
And lefties are bemused as to what the problem is... god help us
*It's amazing how much this can help matters - Corbyn and McDonnell I find to both have pretty trustworthy sounding voices, they have some authority to them.
Interesting makeover.
I am a huge fan of Margaret Thatcher, but I think even I might have struggled to spend a relaxed fun evening with her. Because she didn't do that. I liked her politics but perhaps wouldn't have liked her personality.
Conversely, John Major was a great guy to have a beer with and good fun - as is Farage, actually - the former is obviously likeable, and I although I also liked socialising with the latter he has some dislikeable political features too.
Cameron is rated as likeable. But he can be aloof and distant unless he's known you for a very long time, and doesn't trust those not a longstanding member of his inner circle.
Does that make him likeable, or not?
Like is as meaningful as 'nice'. Not very.
Given the sort of friends Corbyn has, it is understandable that people are focusing on the friends of other senior Labour politicians, particularly one vying to be Mayor of a city which has faced terrorist attacks and is highly likely to face more.
Khan recognises this issue and recognised, at least post-Paris, that it has the potential to harm him.
What on earth is an 'unrepresented' community?? We have universal franchise in this country, and government by democracy.
Everybody is as 'represented' as any human being in any society that has ever existed.
As with many similar scandals before, it won't be the substance but the cover up that will do for it. On what was already a very controversial project.
If you're going to go all red and black and scary and dangerous, why have the tagline that he's not going to deliver on his (presumably) scary agenda?
Fried chicken restaurants? Does anyone care about fried chicken restaurants?
Really?
D-
That will partly be down to political persuasion, we know Tories will dismiss something Corbyn says more instinctively than considering it fully, and Labour would do the same with Cameron. But if we like someone (even if the general sense, not in the like to have a beer with sense), we'll give even someone from the 'wrong' party more of the time of day. Past views and actions will contribute to that likability, but a certain instinctual level is there I think.
You can manage without it if able enough, authoritative enough, but it can be very useful, and lacking it can be fatal to some leadership ambitions. Osborne may be a natural number 2.
as for KLE 4 thinking Chris Bryant is likeable, now Ive heard it all.
They police are not there to represent people, they are there to enforce the law of the land.
And of course the officer speaking to the person in the street has to make the same assessment about whether or not that person is Muslim and would welcome ("why?") knowing that the officer is also a Muslim. Of course if he isn't he might be a tad surprised to find that the police officer is willing to share such information with him, much as I might be if the bus driver or police officer or my local traffic warden or doctor suddenly announced to me that they were gay or had a disabled child or were a born-again Christian.
Who Suffers, everybody in as much as we are lining are selves up for a painful correction. and the pore, or at least those that don't currently own at least one house, who are paying bigger rents, and will need to spend more if they chose to buy.
Who benefits, well in the long run nobody, but in the shout run the people who already own houses, see there equity increase, even if this is balanced out by the extra pain of the next reception and house price falls when they come. O and the politicians that do this because it makes things seem better in the shout run than they would otherwise be, so get credit and votes.
Don't misunderstand me I think Osborn and Co are better than any other lot, especially the Corbynes, but I do want to point out where and when I disagree, perhaps only in the vague hope that people will start to take not, and next time there may be a better option.
Bryant takes the friendliest picture of the shadow cabinet on the labour website
http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet
@Cyclefree There are exceptions, but most of the time you can tell when someone is a Muslim - a lot of the White Muslim women I've encountered tend to wear headscarf, for instance. It's not that an officer would say literally 'I'm a Muslim so trust me'. From what I've seen (in relation to Black people in London) it's a more far instinct thing, it is subtle and unsaid. I also don't think that the officer would have to make any kind of 'assessment'. They would most probably instinctively know whether someone is a Muslim like them or not.
I thought we were talking about which politicians we personally liked, or not. And to me that is a complex question that can mean a variety of things so not that relevant or meaningful for me.
Anyone who can have that lack of judgement is lacking in decision making skills.
If I lived in, say Nigeria, I would expect to be policed by black christian or possibly muslim police personnel. I wouldn't expect white police, even if I lived in a white enclave.
Minorities should expect to be policed by white police, given that Britain is 90% white.
It's called 'integrating'.
And that depends on his ability to build a coalition. The Netherlands is a completely proportional system with 150 seats. If he's got 40, he needs to persuade parties with 35 MP's to back him.
If he's on 30, it will be very tough
Terrible, woeful and shite.
He could post on a BSDM website I wouldn't care.
@taffys And if the police hadn't had an extensive history of racism in recent decades towards minorities in this country, that'd be a fine expectation. But the police have, in that history of racism - epitomised by the Stephen Lawrence case - damaged that relationship. And while most of the country is white, London especially is far more diverse.
If you lived in Nigeria and there was a white community, and people began discriminating against you, I'd expect that the Police would have to do something to restore that trust back, and re-build relationships.
I used to think/hope likeability didn't matter much, but I've heard FAR too many people say over the last few years that they wouldn't be voting Labour because "I couldn't have a drink with that Brown/Miliband" - and Osborne will IMO have the same problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Bryant
Heathrow, can we build it, no we cant.
Conservative opposition research fail shocker as it's revealed that Chicken Shop sells "free range rotisserie chicken", not fried chicken.
Incidentally, that well-known bleeding-heart liberal Theresa May also shares that view.
Yes and many of those people are white British
I have no confidence in several layers of government; but it doesn't make me disobey them...