politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfo

GIN1138 said:

Plato said:

I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

" “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

“But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.

Indeed.

I can't understand why everyone is so slow to embrace Shale Gas. It could provide unlimited, cheap, energy for decades, thousands of jobs directly and countless more employment opportunities indirectly, in some of the most deprived places in the country - We should get on with it ASAP, IMO.

People have concerns about environmental damage and that it does nothing to reduce dependency on carbon fossil fuels. It just kicks the can down the road.

tim said:

GIN1138 said:

Plato said:

I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

" “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

“But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.

Indeed.

I can't understand why everyone is so slow to embrace Shale Gas. It could provide unlimited, cheap, energy for decades, thousands of jobs directly and countless more employment opportunities indirectly, in some of the most deprived places in the country - We should get on with it ASAP, IMO.

You're missing the point.
Shale Gas exploration has been licensed on the South Downs, Lord Howell is arguing that there are desolate and uninhabited areas of the NE (there aren't any licensed areas in the NE, no idea what he means by that)

There are very few licensed vehicles in the North East, tim.

Never stopped them driving.

"The question the North East needs to answer is whether it is possible to frack while sitting on a sofa and watching Sky TV."

It's also naive to lump everybody north of the wash into some lumpen 'its grim up North' mass.

I'm sure people in the north west, or yorkshire, have no special regard for those in the north east.

tim said:

Slackbladder said:

tim said:

Slackbladder said:

Neil said:

Plato said:

I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf

Presumably they would say the same about any housing developments etc being built nearby..

And Osbornes twit of a father in law is saying the same about the entire South.

I'm not really defending him. There's plenty of places both North and south which fracking should be considered.

And Lord Twit is ruling out the south.
He's such a twit that he can't see why that might help anti fracking arguments.

Lots of people (on both left and right) have made comments for and against fracking.

Why does this one bother you so much?

Incentivise them with say 25% of the revenue?

Neil said:

Plato said:

I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf

The North-East has some of the largest and lowest density populated counties on the whole of England. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_counties

Taken as a whole, he is obviously NOT referring to the middle of Newcastle, Hull, Sunderland or Middlesborough (Or other large urban) conurbations, rather the large areas of open geography outside these areas (North Yorkshire, Northumberland) where the shale would be found. Note he uses the word 'uninhabited' in the same sentence.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/desolate

@ 'solitary; lonely: a desolate place.' is the intended meaning no doubt.

There's plenty of shale gas under Lancashire, Merseyside and Cheshire, so let's get fracking. Hopefully, the NIMBYs will keep quiet. They tend to be the poshos anyway.

I thought the Sussex ones fitted the stereotypes - a few locals and loads of hangers-on, and the sight of children parading around with banners they didn't understand completed the picture.

Mind you, wine merchants tend to be posh fops, so I hope they don't get involved in the north-west

MaxPB said:

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

Desolate - by anyone's book.

Nice bit of fracking will give a welcome boost to the local economy.

There's no point in finding somwhere you consider desolate in the North and imagining there's shale gas underneath it just becasue a Troy twit has put his foot in it.

Here are the licensed areas for Shale gas exploration/

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/11/03/article-2227344-15D4713A000005DC-573_306x522.jpg

Which desolate areas in the NE can you see?

Hull and Blackpool will be immeasurably improved by fracking.

Since when was Blackpool in the North-East, by any definition o_O ?!

tim,

"I'm a replace NIMBY's with immigrants man myself."

You've probably lost your posh fop membership then.

The problem is as ever that the media give less time to a Professor of Geology than to a concerned mother who "knows" better.

Recently spent few days in Wrexham Maelor. Had first class treatment and a consultant who was available anytime. Thank you Labour Wales Government.
Can I post this on Trip Advisor?

tim said:

Time for a bit of Etonian on Etonian

@BBCNormanS: Archbishop of Cantebury @abcjustin joins in criticism of Tory peer Lord Howell over "desolate" North east -"NE beatiful,rugged, welcoming"

It might be "beautiful, rugged and welcoming" but I bet the Church Commissioners don't invest there.

AveryLP said:

It might be "beautiful, rugged and welcoming" but I bet the Church Commissioners don't invest there.

They do (well they send money there annually) as its the only way to keep the Dioceses going.

The Tory's are making fools of themselves ever time they open their mouths at the moment. I am quite happy for them to talk about the NHS as every sane person in this country knows they are fecking it up.

valleyboyrevisited said:

. I am quite happy for them to talk about the NHS as every sane person in this country knows they are fecking it up.

Unlike Wales where Labour are taking the NHS on to new heights?

Keep up the good work...

valleyboyrevisited said:

The Tory's are making fools of themselves ever time they open their mouths at the moment. I am quite happy for them to talk about the NHS as every sane person in this country knows they are fecking it up.

Wouldn't want to be getting ill in those valleys under the NHS in Wales...

Wonder if Cameron will send the Lord of wherever up to the north east like Howard send Johnson to Liverpool?

@Plato

False names or people (relatives and friends of the candidate) living somewhere else enrolled in the electoral register and fake signatures on postal votes.

http://www.wokinglabour.org/docs/Woking_Electoral_Fraud_Case.pdf

carl said:

AveryLP said:

carl said:

JackW said:

@edmundintokyo wrote :

"Yes, you were wrong. All the people you mention had more than a minimal chance of becoming PM, especially Kinnock."

Incorrect.

Odds are only ever relevant if you hold the winning slip !!

Since 1964 I have never been wrong about those who I considered to be a future Prime Minister and those who would clearly have minimal to zero chance of becoming the Queen's First Lord of the Treasury in contested elections.

What chance (in numerical terms, decimal or fraction) you think Ed Miliband has of being next PM?

1/1,000,000,000? Is that close enough to "minimal or zero"?

Another trio of noughts and that starts to look value, Carl.

Do you bet?

Not on known losers.

AndreaParma_82 said:

@Plato

False names or people (relatives and friends of the candidate) living somewhere else enrolled in the electoral register and fake signatures on postal votes.

http://www.wokinglabour.org/docs/Woking_Electoral_Fraud_Case.pdf

Do we have a comment from Mark Senior?

JackW said:

carl said:

JackW said:

@edmundintokyo wrote :

"Yes, you were wrong. All the people you mention had more than a minimal chance of becoming PM, especially Kinnock."

Incorrect.

Odds are only ever relevant if you hold the winning slip !!

Since 1964 I have never been wrong about those who I considered to be a future Prime Minister and those who would clearly have minimal to zero chance of becoming the Queen's First Lord of the Treasury in contested elections.

Yeah, OK. You won't enter into a bet. But, with no obligation of a wager, tell us roughly what chance (in numerical terms, decimal or fraction) you think Ed Miliband has of being next PM.

1/1,000,000,000? Is that close enough to "minimal or zero"?

NONE.

That'll be about 1/65*10^6 then :-)

Indeed he isn't. For one thing, Ed Miliband is yet another male establishment figure in a long line of Labour Leaders. As of 2013, and nearly forty years after Maggie won a leadership contest in that great male bastion of the Conservative party, Labour has still failed to elect a female leader. Maggie broke the political glass ceiling in UK politics by becoming the first female leader of the Conservative party, Ed on the other hand, was and remains the Unions anyone but David choice in the Labour contest.

You simple cannot compare their polling in Opposition nearly forty years apart without that context, it simple not comparing like with like. I suspect that back then, Maggie's achievements may have divided opinion, but it gave her a perception of strength as a female politician, as well as an Opposition Leader who aspired to become the UK's first female PM. Ed Miliband is currently perceived as weak and *effectual in the polls, and without any ground breaking positives going for him to counter this current perception he will continue to struggle between now and the next GE.

*edit

Slackbladder said:

Ed Miliband is no Maggie...

OldKingCole said:

This is off topic, and may well have been dealt with earlier today but how come Vicky Pryce loses her honour yet it's still Lords Archer and Hanningfield?

From HoL website FAQs:

Can a Member lose his or her peerage or membership?

A peerage is created by Letters Patent and it can only be removed by an Act of Parliament.

The last time a peerage was removed was in 1917 under the Titles Deprivation Act, which provided for peers who fought against the Crown in the First World War – and thus were guilty of treason – to be deprived of their titles.

Members convicted of a crime and sent to jail cannot sit due to their imprisonment but do not lose their peerage or membership (ie sitting and voting resumes when the custodial sentence finishes).

A Member who is declared bankrupt under the Insolvency Act 1986 is disqualified from sitting and voting in the House during the period of bankruptcy. Once the period is over he or she can resume sitting and voting.

SouthamObserver said:

On 31st July the US will be reworking GDP calculations by reclassifying R&D spending as an investment rather than as an expense. It's a very good idea and presumably everyone else will follow suit at some stage. Our companies' relative reluctance to spend on R£D will then become more of an issue; which will be good news as it may lead to some serious efforts and initiatives to change what is a pretty poor state of affairs. someone on here was posting about the UK's management class the other day. Its short-termism and saving money at all costs approach has really held us back over the years in my view.

Personally I'd rather we handled research and development in accordance with IAS 38: http://www.iasplus.com/en/standards/ias/ias38 I wish the states would too. Homogenized accounting standards allow for easier international tax agreements and so forth. I thought under US GAAP that they already classified R&D as an investment at any rate.

GIN1138 said:

@Plato,

I wonder if, before they started using coal to power the industrial revolution, whether NIMBYS, hand-wringers and luvvies tried to hold up the advancement of society because they thought the mines might spoil the "natural beauty" of the countryside and knock a few thousand off their house prices?

There was a 'Long View' programme on R4 recently which looked at exactly this issue. As I remember there was little problem with coal because most of the mines were sunk on land owned by aristocrats. The Fitzwilliams were a case in point in my part of the world.

I don't suppose now would be a good moment to mention Speaker Beckett.

antifrank said:

I don't suppose now would be a good moment to mention Speaker Beckett.

Why ever not? *innocent face*

According to Wikipedia, that fracking tory is Jeffreys father in law.

This is a comment on the YouGov site over the van posters


"Also why's this van not outside big businesses saying; "Do you pay your corporation tax? If not text this number and we'll help you pay or remove your business from this country!"

TGOHF said:

MikeSmithson said:

This is a comment on the YouGov site over the van posters


"Also why's this van not outside big businesses saying; "Do you pay your corporation tax? If not text this number and we'll help you pay or remove your business from this country!"

Labour party hq would be an appropriate spot too !

Why ?

MarkSenior said:

TGOHF said:

MikeSmithson said:

This is a comment on the YouGov site over the van posters


"Also why's this van not outside big businesses saying; "Do you pay your corporation tax? If not text this number and we'll help you pay or remove your business from this country!"

Labour party hq would be an appropriate spot too !

Why ?

Why not?

MarkSenior said:

AveryLP said:

MarkSenior said:

TGOHF said:

MikeSmithson said:

This is a comment on the YouGov site over the van posters


"Also why's this van not outside big businesses saying; "Do you pay your corporation tax? If not text this number and we'll help you pay or remove your business from this country!"

Labour party hq would be an appropriate spot too !

Why ?

Why not?

Because if there is no sensible reason they may as well park a van outside your home .

You never heard of the JML man?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

AveryLP said:

MarkSenior said:

TGOHF said:

MikeSmithson said:

This is a comment on the YouGov site over the van posters


"Also why's this van not outside big businesses saying; "Do you pay your corporation tax? If not text this number and we'll help you pay or remove your business from this country!"

Labour party hq would be an appropriate spot too !

Why ?

Why not?

Because if there is no sensible reason they may as well park a van outside your home .

You never heard of the JML man?

Nope

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Incentivise them with say 25% of the revenue?

Neil said:

Plato said:

I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf

Yes, on a non-political note I wonder why this isn't done more. It's commonplace in Denmark with communal licences, and accounts for the facts that wind turbines are ubiquitous - nearly every community was keen to get a share. And it's reasonable, really, isn't it? If you want to build a fracking well outside my window, of course I'll object. If you offer me £1000 to agree, I might warm to the idea.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mike, you do realise the vans say "illegal immigrants"?

No they don't.

They say 'In the UK Illegally?'..

...the word 'immigrant' does not appear....

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/7/26/1374860544056/In-the-UK-illegally-mobil-008.jpg

I guess that's why the Great British Public did not reckon they were 'racist'.....unlike our friends on the left.....

@tim - if you think I can be bothered to trawl through over 7,000 posts you'll be disappointed - however, I'm delighted to learn you do not believe they were racist....

Not sure about the North East,but a big metal structure would look completely out of place in the South-Downs...No wonder people in the area don`t want fracking nearby.Feel a bit sorry for Lord Howell who seemed to want to make a joke of it than anything else.

MikeSmithson said:

Those are not the full results as required under the British Polling Council code of conduct

I can't understand why they haven't been published - I was promised them during the day.

They have two working days following publication of the poll, which was last night, so I would expect to see it tomorrow.


Thats not the detail, it's the party/regional/age breakdown which they haven't published.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vyqeedhshs/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290713-immigration-van.pdf

Here.

When you say a big metal structure, do you mean something like a great big wind turbine or an oil rig because we have plenty of both up here in the real North.

SMukesh said:

Not sure about the North East,but a big metal structure would look completely out of place in the South-Downs...No wonder people in the area don`t want fracking nearby.Feel a bit sorry for Lord Howell who seemed to want to make a joke of it than anything else.

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No political party thought it was racist, net. (Dangerously low LD sample, save only by the fact that it is a priori considered representative.)