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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

Polling day came a few days later May 3rd 1979. The Tories won an emphatic victory with an 8% lead on votes and an overall majority of 44 seats and went on to secure overall majorities in the next three general elections. They stayed in power for eighteen years.

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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Primus inter pares
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ed takes comfort from Maggie ....

    Hhmm .... it's a thought .... but a horrible one !!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Ed Miliband is no Maggie...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Oh dear,story getting bigger.

    Fracking OK for 'desolate' North East, says Tory peer

    Fracking should be carried out in the North East of England, where there are large, "desolate" areas, a former energy secretary has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23505723#

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's not the "best PM" ratings that should worry Ed Miliband. It's the polling that shows that the public think he's weak and ineffectual.

    There's time to turn round that perception, but if he's got any sense, it should be his number one priority right now.
  • It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Winter of Discontent 2015 anyone ??

    Thought not .... well apart from some in the Cheshire farming community as Ed and Labour head for the exit.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike,you can look for all the excuses for ed,maybe they is only one excuse,he's crap.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited July 2013
    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lord Howell's comments are a classic gaffe. Classic because:

    1) they're 100% true
    2) they powerfully reinforce stereotypes about the political party he represents
    3) they result in this kind of guff:

    "She [Baroness Verma] told Baroness Farrington: "I'm sure that my noble friend did not say that Lancashire was [not] as beautiful. All parts of this great country are beautiful." "

    I can only assume that the good baroness hasn't been to south Essex, where fracking would dramatically improve the scenery.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    Well we know it's going big in the north east.

    Baroness Quin (Labour peer from NE) is writing to Lord Howell to ask him exactly where these 'uninhabited and desolate' parts of NE are


    http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/story/2013-07-30/desolate-ne-fine-for-fracking/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Further off topic, and shamelessly stolen from another website, it appears that some of the twitterati are concerned about Prince George not being given a fair chance to express his individuality:

    http://i.imgur.com/6hDIbNn.png
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    My goodness the left/BBC are really having to scrape the barrel for their attack stories at the moment.

    PM's fish purchasing behaviors

    NHS customers no longer drinking from vases but non urgent referral line could be improved

    Tory peer describes uninhabited areas as "uninhabited"

    You can gauge the way the wind's blowing by the shrillness of the bleaters on either side and there's one side bleating very loud and very shrill at the moment
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_England

    North East England is one of the nine regions of England that are classified at the first level of NUTS for statistical purposes. It covers Northumberland, County Durham, Tyne and Wear, and Teesside, which is partly in North Yorkshire

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    I don't think Ed should take much comfort that people in 1979 did not see a woman as the best Prime minister. He doesn't have the same prejudices to overcome. He would have more comfort if a man had been in the same posistion.
  • I agree with the topic today that Labour should keep Ed Milliband in place.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

    Well you can always move to Conservativehome if you want a more pro tory site - perhaps not !!
  • scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

    OGH is doing a lot of wishful thinking. Who would have thought that the polls have actually narrowed?

  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    And yet again the Conservative major offensive during the recess is looking for seriously big wholes to take a run and jump in. The fact that the idiot that mentioned fracking the north east is George Osbornes father-in-law adds is a few extra shovels.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If you see that you must be barmy. If you don't like it then go elsewhere.

    I am getting sick of your partisan whining.
    scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Ed Miliband is no Maggie...

    Maggie wasn't Maggie until she was Maggie.

    (Not that I think Miliband is on Thatcher's level, but the point being that what we see in hindsight is very different from what people see at the time and especially ahead of time).
  • It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    We are very glad to know that. Bears antics in woods?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

    Well you can always move to Conservativehome if you want a more pro tory site - perhaps not !!
    Well mark you seem to know what post go on at con home,you keep telling us.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    The 1970s were another age (now largely forgotten, thank goodness). In particular, elections were much less presidential.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'Some have also sought to defend Howell’s comments by saying that this will bring manufacturing jobs to the North East. But if the rural North East is so “desolate”, where are these workers going to come from?' No-one wants to see more manufacturing jobs in the North East than I do'

    They would like the jobs but no workers are available if the job's more than 10 minutes walk from home.
    And when immigrants come in and take the jobs lefties will be whining again about British jobs for British workers..

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yes - all Labour need is a massive strike by the right wing unions bringing the country to a halt and the GE is NAILED ON !


    it's deja vu with Miliband and Brown - he's misunderstood - he has a plan - wait until he has a chance to shine - his vision is coming - he can turn it around - he's a deep thinker - he's great one to one - he lights up a room - he's the future of the left etc etc...

    Sorry but there is no evidence that Miliband has anything behind the curtain - nowt , nil , nada, zip.

    Not being Cameron isn't enough.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    corporeal said:

    (Not that I think Miliband is on Thatcher's level, but the point being that what we see in hindsight is very different from what people see at the time and especially ahead of time).

    Absolutely. There is much rewriting of history - even after she became PM, she was regarded by many in the Conservative Party as a lightweight or worse; it was only with the Falklands that sentiment changed.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I could see Lord Howell's gaffe as being a marvelous gift for away supporters heading for St. James Park over the coming season.

    'you're gonna get your fracking heads kicked in'

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RedRag1 said:

    And yet again the Conservative major offensive during the recess is looking for seriously big wholes to take a run and jump in. The fact that the idiot that mentioned fracking the north east is George Osbornes father-in-law adds is a few extra shovels.

    Better big wholes than big whalves.

  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    taffys said:

    I could see Lord Howell's gaffe as being a marvelous gift for away supporters heading for St. James Park over the coming season.

    'you're gonna get your fracking heads kicked in'

    Waiting for the headline "Lord Howell can Frack Off"
  • If you see that you must be barmy. If you don't like it then go elsewhere.

    I am getting sick of your partisan whining.


    scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

    Lol - QED.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RedRag1 said:

    taffys said:

    I could see Lord Howell's gaffe as being a marvelous gift for away supporters heading for St. James Park over the coming season.

    'you're gonna get your fracking heads kicked in'

    Waiting for the headline "Lord Howell can Frack Off"
    A couple of days of bad headlines for the tories,just keep ed away from the tv ;-)

  • At this point in the electroral cycle last time from ICM 20 Jul 2008 C=43 LAB= 28 LD=19. Comapred to C=36, Lab = 36 and LD = 13 on 14 July 2013.
    So will the main opposition lose 8 points from the 36 they had reached in July 2013?
    Will the main Govt party add 1 point on their 36? Will the LDs gain 4?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Yes - all Labour need is a massive strike by the right wing unions bringing the country to a halt and the GE is NAILED ON !


    it's deja vu with Miliband and Brown - he's misunderstood - he has a plan - wait until he has a chance to shine - his vision is coming - he can turn it around - he's a deep thinker - he's great one to one - he lights up a room - he's the future of the left etc etc...

    Sorry but there is no evidence that Miliband has anything behind the curtain - nowt , nil , nada, zip.

    Not being Cameron isn't enough.

    And Cameron couldn't win a majority against Brown.

    Whatever keeps you warm at night timmy - 71% of the country cracked open the champers when the useless Brown - your champion - was thrown out of office for being crap.


  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

    "Minimal to zero chance"?!

    Something is clearly amiss, then...

    Next Prime Minister
    Ed Miliband 4/6
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    tim said:

    The very smart Tory running the campaign to broaden Tory appeal in the North and among people who don't have kitchen suppers tweets

    David Skelton ‏@DJSkelton 5m
    The North East isn't "desolate". It's one of the most beautiful parts of the country. I'm happy to give Lord Howell a tour if he fancies.

    And so yet again this party of privileged chinless southern public schoolboy twits reinforces the stereotype it thinks is unfair.

    Try doing the stretch of the Pennine Way between Byrness and the border before Kirk Yetholm and tell me it's not desolate! Every time I've been up there the weather's been rather unkind. There's nothing like a guidebook saying 'the views are wonderful' when you are walking through thick cloud.

    The fact it is bleak and depressingly empty is one of its wonders. And it's not alone in the northeast of England. Which I have to remind people does not end at Newcastle.

    The Cheviots and the hills just south of the border are possibly one of England's last wildernesses. A fantastic place. It's just a shame that the forestry commission ruined large tracts, although the need was there.

    So yes, parts are desolate. And wonderfully so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    Mrs. T was a force of nature, Ed Miliband is not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

    Desolate - by anyone's book.

    Nice bit of fracking will give a welcome boost to the local economy.

  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527

    RedRag1 said:

    taffys said:

    I could see Lord Howell's gaffe as being a marvelous gift for away supporters heading for St. James Park over the coming season.

    'you're gonna get your fracking heads kicked in'

    Waiting for the headline "Lord Howell can Frack Off"
    A couple of days of bad headlines for the tories,just keep ed away from the tv ;-)

    In some ways you are right. The Conservative Party, after holding the party line for a week or two, are back to the round circle firing squad. Amazing how one party can constantly shoot each other at so regular occurrence.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    Ed can of course take comfort from the precedent Mike mentions. However, as RichardN rightly notes, politics is more presidential now - and will be especially so if we see a re-run of the election debates. Also, there are far more options on the ballot paper and there is far less of a view that voting is a civic duty, so those who like neither Miliband nor Cameron have other alternatives, from minor parties to not voting at all.

    Ed's biggest problem, as also noted down-thread, is *why* he's not seen as best PM: it's because he's not seen as PM material at all by far too many. He'll continue to be seen as weak, wonkish and in the hands of the unions, because it's all too easy to paint him as such. Indeed, he often does the job himself.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    The 1970s were another age (now largely forgotten, thank goodness). In particular, elections were much less presidential.

    I agree with that.

    Nevertheless, "best PM" ratings are froth, no-one should pay much attention to them.

    I also think Antifrank is right to highlight polling internals. Not so much amongst the public at large (who cares if Tories think Ed is crap?) but amongst the crucial 2010 Lib & Lab group.

    Ed needs solid ratings amongst that group, not so much to win their support for Labour - it's looking solid enough as it is - but to motivate them to turn out, to pursuade them that Ed's Labour will indeed be a massive improvement on the hated Cameron's Tories.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    At this point in the electroral cycle last time from ICM 20 Jul 2008 C=43 LAB= 28 LD=19. Comapred to C=36, Lab = 36 and LD = 13 on 14 July 2013.
    So will the main opposition lose 8 points from the 36 they had reached in July 2013?
    Will the main Govt party add 1 point on their 36? Will the LDs gain 4?

    The question, put as neutrally as possible, is whether the relatively modest Labour gain since 2010 is different in content from the usual surge that oppositions get, or whether it's (as someone said, apologies but have forgotten who) a realignment (of left LibDems) rather than a bounce. Nearly all such questions have the answer "It's a bit of both", so I can easily imagine Labour on 35-36% in 2015, but down to 32? Probably not.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anyone smell that prawn toast ?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Anyone who has been around the North East and does not think some parts are desolate and would benefit from fracking and the ensuing jobs must be completely blind
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    North East Desolate?

    Men - Highest rate of heart attacks, highest lung cancer rate in UK.
    Women - Highest lung cancer among women in England.

    Highest unemployment among youths aged 16–24.

    Most multiple deprivation in England.

    Unemployment is a severe problem in the North East, where many children grow up in households where no adult works.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_England

    Oh, and the North East has a strong tendency to vote Labour...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Ed Miliband is no Maggie...

    Thanks heavens. A leader with a bit of humanity!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    Mrs. T was a force of nature, Ed Miliband is not.

    Does a wet weekend in the desolate NE count as a "force of nature" ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    At this point in the electroral cycle last time from ICM 20 Jul 2008 C=43 LAB= 28 LD=19. Comapred to C=36, Lab = 36 and LD = 13 on 14 July 2013.
    So will the main opposition lose 8 points from the 36 they had reached in July 2013?
    Will the main Govt party add 1 point on their 36? Will the LDs gain 4?

    At this stage, I think the Conservatives will lead the popular vote in 2015, which is not necessarily the same as leading in terms of seats.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    OGH tweets:

    Still waiting for @YouGov to publish the detail from their immigration van ad polling

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fjbakrwrnl/YouGov-Sun-results-130729-Immigration-Van.pdf

    There this morning....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Lord Howell's comments are a classic gaffe. Classic because:

    1) they're 100% true
    2) they powerfully reinforce stereotypes about the political party he represents
    3) they result in this kind of guff:

    "She [Baroness Verma] told Baroness Farrington: "I'm sure that my noble friend did not say that Lancashire was [not] as beautiful. All parts of this great country are beautiful." "

    I can only assume that the good baroness hasn't been to south Essex, where fracking would dramatically improve the scenery.

    "I can only assume that the good baroness hasn't been to south Essex, where fracking would dramatically improve the scenery"

    or seen the rascal suits you wear

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Anyone who has been around the North East and does not think some parts are desolate and would benefit from fracking and the ensuing jobs must be completely blind

    For decades the left were banging on about bring up the lovely black fossil fuel from under the North East - now they are against it - "eeeh - I don't like that Tory carbon - I want nice Labour carbon..."

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    antifrank said:

    Lord Howell's comments are a classic gaffe. Classic because:

    1) they're 100% true
    2) they powerfully reinforce stereotypes about the political party he represents
    3) they result in this kind of guff:

    "She [Baroness Verma] told Baroness Farrington: "I'm sure that my noble friend did not say that Lancashire was [not] as beautiful. All parts of this great country are beautiful." "

    I can only assume that the good baroness hasn't been to south Essex, where fracking would dramatically improve the scenery.

    I was interviewed regularly by BBC Radio Cambridgeshire whilst on my coastal walk, but I did not know the presenter also presented on BBC Radio Essex. He was rather displeased with my less-than-flattering comments about the Essex coastline on my website.

    At least it wasn't as bad as Lincolnshire, which I kept on misspelling as Lincolnshi*te when typing on my Psion 5. A large number of these typos mysteriously went live on my website. ;-)

    The highlight of the Essex coast for me was the chapel at Bradwell-on-Sea, one of the oldest churches in Britain. The stretch of the coastline south from Bradwell to the River Crouch and Foulness Island is extremely desolate.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapel_of_St_Peter-on-the-Wall

    Which is little to do with politics, but at least doesn't contain the word 'fop' or 'twit'. Until now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    I love it when right wing "patriots" reveal their profound dislike of large parts of the country they profess to love.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:


    Which desolate areas in the NE can you see?

    I think it's that bit labelled 'Hull', isn't it?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    At this point in the electroral cycle last time from ICM 20 Jul 2008 C=43 LAB= 28 LD=19. Comapred to C=36, Lab = 36 and LD = 13 on 14 July 2013.
    So will the main opposition lose 8 points from the 36 they had reached in July 2013?
    Will the main Govt party add 1 point on their 36? Will the LDs gain 4?

    The question, put as neutrally as possible, is whether the relatively modest Labour gain since 2010 is different in content from the usual surge that oppositions get, or whether it's (as someone said, apologies but have forgotten who) a realignment (of left LibDems) rather than a bounce. Nearly all such questions have the answer "It's a bit of both", so I can easily imagine Labour on 35-36% in 2015, but down to 32? Probably not.

    I think a very real danger to Labour over the next couple of years is if the improving economy feeds through to a feel good factor in the aspirational WC, this includes the infamous white van man. And if this group associates the feel good with the Coalition. If the coalition position themselves in such a way that another coalition is not excluded, the so called toxicity of the tories will be diluted.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @carl You shouldn't just follow those groups. The motivation to vote against Labour will also be influenced by the views of unsympathetic voters about Ed Miliband.

    Many on the right are fairly contemptuous of David Cameron, but if they regard Ed Miliband as dangerously weak and in hock to the unions, they might well still hold their noses and vote for the Conservatives to keep Labour out.

    You can already see that phenomenon on here. Neither Sean Fear nor Plato are exactly enthusiastic Cameroons, but both are currently back on the Tory bus, it seems.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    tim thinks the South Downs is a desolate area and needs fracking..cl*t
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    Yes, the NE was so keen to get out of the fossil fuel mining business, they have annual parades to celebrate the fact. Oh, hang on ...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

    Desolate - by anyone's book.

    Nice bit of fracking will give a welcome boost to the local economy.

    There's no point in finding somwhere you consider desolate in the North and imagining there's shale gas underneath it just becasue a Troy twit has put his foot in it.

    Here are the licensed areas for Shale gas exploration/

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/11/03/article-2227344-15D4713A000005DC-573_306x522.jpg

    Which desolate areas in the NE can you see?
    Hull - first rig in Prezza's back garden please.




  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    If you see that you must be barmy. If you don't like it then go elsewhere.

    I am getting sick of your partisan whining.


    scampi said:

    Look back at the last 4 thread headers - each one is tory negatived by ogh - I know he used to work for the BBC but this site should be renamed the 'i don't like the tories site'

    Lol - QED.
    Mike,this site is full of partisan whining posters but you are a lib dem and by looks of it,have you banned scampi for whining you don't like ?



  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

    Desolate - by anyone's book.

    Nice bit of fracking will give a welcome boost to the local economy.

    There's no point in finding somwhere you consider desolate in the North and imagining there's shale gas underneath it just becasue a Troy twit has put his foot in it.

    Here are the licensed areas for Shale gas exploration/

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/11/03/article-2227344-15D4713A000005DC-573_306x522.jpg

    Which desolate areas in the NE can you see?

    Tim, I assume Lord Howell thinks East Yorkshire and Humberside are the desolate North East.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2013
    Northern Echo's new headline is:
    Tory peer "foolish and ill-informed" to say fracking should take place in the "desolate" North-East

    http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10580087.Tory_peer__foolish_and_ill_informed__to_say_fracking_should_take_place_in_the__desolate__North_East/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    OGH tweets:

    Still waiting for @YouGov to publish the detail from their immigration van ad polling

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fjbakrwrnl/YouGov-Sun-results-130729-Immigration-Van.pdf

    There this morning....

    Thats not the detail, it's the party/regional/age breakdown which they haven't published.

    On a 733 base size I doubt they'll publish them.....do you?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:


    or seen the rascal suits you wear

    Sadly, the tartan suit is way too big for me now.

    I had some of the younger generation over for the weekend. At their prompting, I showed off a few of the items in the wardrobe. They were a bit disappointed that the silver suit wasn't more silvery, but the gold suit completely lived up to their expectations.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tim thinks the South Downs
    ...

    tim thought South Downs is a disease toffs get from too much inbreeding of blue blood.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    carl said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

    "Minimal to zero chance"?!

    Something is clearly amiss, then...

    Next Prime Minister
    Ed Miliband 4/6
    No nothing is "clearly amiss". Odds don't vote in general elections.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    antifrank said:

    @carl You shouldn't just follow those groups. The motivation to vote against Labour will also be influenced by the views of unsympathetic voters about Ed Miliband.

    Many on the right are fairly contemptuous of David Cameron, but if they regard Ed Miliband as dangerously weak and in hock to the unions, they might well still hold their noses and vote for the Conservatives to keep Labour out.

    You can already see that phenomenon on here. Neither Sean Fear nor Plato are exactly enthusiastic Cameroons, but both are currently back on the Tory bus, it seems.

    Yes I suppose that's partly true, but only in terms of denying Miliband a majority, since the Tories will need to retain the bulk of their 2010 vote to do so (assuming the key 2010 Lib / Lab group votes as tactically and efficiently as ever against the Tories).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    carl said:

    The 1970s were another age (now largely forgotten, thank goodness). In particular, elections were much less presidential.

    I agree with that.

    Nevertheless, "best PM" ratings are froth, no-one should pay much attention to them.

    I also think Antifrank is right to highlight polling internals. Not so much amongst the public at large (who cares if Tories think Ed is crap?) but amongst the crucial 2010 Lib & Lab group.

    Ed needs solid ratings amongst that group, not so much to win their support for Labour - it's looking solid enough as it is - but to motivate them to turn out, to pursuade them that Ed's Labour will indeed be a massive improvement on the hated Cameron's Tories.
    The Lib Dems will win back some of their 2010 voters, and left-leaning voters in Con/Lab marginal seats have mostly always been in the Labour camp. There are seats that Labour could win back with such voters, like Manchester Withington, East Dunbartonshire, Burnley, Redcar, but I don't think they're decisive.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    antifrank said:

    @carl You shouldn't just follow those groups. The motivation to vote against Labour will also be influenced by the views of unsympathetic voters about Ed Miliband.

    Many on the right are fairly contemptuous of David Cameron, but if they regard Ed Miliband as dangerously weak and in hock to the unions, they might well still hold their noses and vote for the Conservatives to keep Labour out.

    You can already see that phenomenon on here. Neither Sean Fear nor Plato are exactly enthusiastic Cameroons, but both are currently back on the Tory bus, it seems.

    If I still live in Luton South, then I'll vote Conservative. If I lived in a safe seat, I'd vote UKIP.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike Smithson.

    I urge you re-instate "scampi"

    This site and you as founder are robust enough to brush off a minor mid afternoon spat.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson.

    I urge you re-instate "scampi"

    This site and you as founder are robust enough to brush off a minor mid afternoon spat.

    Seconded...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited July 2013
    On Topic: "Mrs Thatcher, however, continued to trail in the MORI “best PM” ratings for another year until Jim Callaghan stepped down."

    Which only goes to prove that Leader ratings are a nonsense. A PM is always in the news and usually has an unfair advantage whatever he/she does. Obviously a party leader who is not even a leader of the main opposition will be nowhere in these polls.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    On 31st July the US will be reworking GDP calculations by reclassifying R&D spending as an investment rather than as an expense. It's a very good idea and presumably everyone else will follow suit at some stage. Our companies' relative reluctance to spend on R£D will then become more of an issue; which will be good news as it may lead to some serious efforts and initiatives to change what is a pretty poor state of affairs. someone on here was posting about the UK's management class the other day. Its short-termism and saving money at all costs approach has really held us back over the years in my view.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/rachelsylvester/article3828964.ece

    I don't subscribe. The main concern is clearly whether the said 'billions' in savings will actually happen. I wonder if any other poster could indicate if the rest of the article illuminates that?
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    JackW said:

    carl said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

    "Minimal to zero chance"?!

    Something is clearly amiss, then...

    Next Prime Minister
    Ed Miliband 4/6
    No nothing is "clearly amiss". Odds don't vote in general elections.

    You think Ed's got "minimal to zero chance". So clearly you think the next PM price is way out of line, yes?

    So Jack, what would you price it at (given "minimal to zero chance"?). Being generous to you, will you give me 1,000/1 on Ed Miliband being our next Prime Minister?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    YouGov are required to publish the detail within two working days

    tim said:

    OGH tweets:

    Still waiting for @YouGov to publish the detail from their immigration van ad polling

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fjbakrwrnl/YouGov-Sun-results-130729-Immigration-Van.pdf

    There this morning....

    Thats not the detail, it's the party/regional/age breakdown which they haven't published.

    On a 733 base size I doubt they'll publish them.....do you?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    tim said:

    OGH tweets:

    Still waiting for @YouGov to publish the detail from their immigration van ad polling

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fjbakrwrnl/YouGov-Sun-results-130729-Immigration-Van.pdf

    There this morning....

    Thats not the detail, it's the party/regional/age breakdown which they haven't published.

    On a 733 base size I doubt they'll publish them.....do you?


    No idea, but trying to appear clever by telling Mike they had wasn't very clever.

    As clever as you telling us how it was 'racist'?

    'Net agree': -30.......

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    RE: Fracking

    I see that current estimates of potential gas resources in the North of the UK are in the region of £1trillion. Certainly the amount of work clients are and have been putting our way shows their interest is not casual.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @CarlottaVance The last of those questions is terrible, because people who think that it's not in poor taste and people who think that it's not necessary will both be obliged to disagree, which leaves us in some doubt about the balance of the popular will.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited July 2013
    1. Ed Miliband is NOT Mrs Thatcher.

    2. For all her skill's Maggie probably wouldn't have beaten Callaghan if the Unions hadn't totally lost the plot and committed Hari-Kari during the long cold winter of 1979.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

    Desolate - by anyone's book.

    Nice bit of fracking will give a welcome boost to the local economy.

    There's no point in finding somwhere you consider desolate in the North and imagining there's shale gas underneath it just becasue a Troy twit has put his foot in it.

    Here are the licensed areas for Shale gas exploration/

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/11/03/article-2227344-15D4713A000005DC-573_306x522.jpg

    Which desolate areas in the NE can you see?
    Hull and Blackpool will be immeasurably improved by fracking.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    carl said:

    JackW said:

    carl said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

    "Minimal to zero chance"?!

    Something is clearly amiss, then...

    Next Prime Minister
    Ed Miliband 4/6
    No nothing is "clearly amiss". Odds don't vote in general elections.

    You think Ed's got "minimal to zero chance". So clearly you think the next PM price is way out of line, yes?

    So Jack, what would you price it at (given "minimal to zero chance"?). Being generous to you, will you give me 1,000/1 on Ed Miliband being our next Prime Minister?
    I understand you are fairly new on the site otherwise you might have been aware that on principle I never wager with PBers and haven't done so since the foundation of the site.

    I used similar terms like "minimal to zero chance" about IDS and Howard on here and prior Foot, Kinnock and Hague enjoyed the same treatment.

    Wasn't wrong was I ?!?

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    TGOHF said:

    Drive the A66 from Penrith to Scotch corner.

    Desolate - by anyone's book.


    Wonderful road - I can remember the steam trains with a banker going over Stainmore - alongside that road!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    Fracking - Has been put in clumsy language by the Tory peer, but I've thought for a couple of years that fracking could well provide some VERY interesting employment opportunities/benefits for many of the the northern towns and cities that were decimated by the demise of Coal and Steal...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

    " “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

    “But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

    I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    JackW said:

    carl said:

    JackW said:

    carl said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    It still looks like it'll be PM Milliband to me.

    Anything can happen between now and 2015, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

    Indeed Sean but to my mind it's been "increasingly unlikely" that Ed would be PM from the moment he was selected by the unions to be Labour leader.

    Ed joins Foot, Kinnock, IDS and Howard in being part of a lengthening list of LotO who had a minimal to zero chance of becoming PM. We know it, enough Labour voters know it, the wider public know it and Ed probably knows it.

    Sadly we all have almost two years for the clock to run down to the inevitable !!

    "Minimal to zero chance"?!

    Something is clearly amiss, then...

    Next Prime Minister
    Ed Miliband 4/6
    No nothing is "clearly amiss". Odds don't vote in general elections.

    You think Ed's got "minimal to zero chance". So clearly you think the next PM price is way out of line, yes?

    So Jack, what would you price it at (given "minimal to zero chance"?). Being generous to you, will you give me 1,000/1 on Ed Miliband being our next Prime Minister?
    I understand you are fairly new on the site otherwise you might have been aware that on principle I never wager with PBers and haven't done so since the foundation of the site.

    I used similar terms like "minimal to zero chance" about IDS and Howard on here and prior Foot, Kinnock and Hague enjoyed the same treatment.

    Wasn't wrong was I ?!?

    Yes, you were wrong. All the people you mention had more than a minimal chance of becoming PM, especially Kinnock.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited July 2013
    Plato said:

    I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

    " “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

    “But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

    I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.

    Indeed.

    I can't understand why everyone is so slow to embrace Shale Gas. It could provide unlimited, cheap, energy for decades, thousands of jobs directly and countless more employment opportunities indirectly, in some of the most deprived places in the country - We should get on with it ASAP, IMO.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Balcombe here in Sussex is an old stomping ground of mine and is a potential fracking site - its now infested with luvvies and professional protesters.

    I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say. We had them near me over a bypass/road improvement and they're nothing but aggro/pushing their views onto everyone else. And then they bugger off to somewhere else and do the same again.
    GIN1138 said:

    Plato said:

    I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

    " “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

    “But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

    I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.

    Indeed.

    I can't understand why everyone is so slow to embrace Shale Gas. It could provide unlimited, cheap energy for decades, thousands of jobs directly and countless more employment opportunities indirectly, in some of the most deprived places in the country - We should get on with it ASAP, IMO.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Fracking could well provide some VERY interesting employment opportunities/benefits for many of the the northern towns and cities that were decimated by the demise of Coal and Steel...'

    Luckily labour were able to engineer a meaningful regeneration in these deprived heartland areas in their 13 years in government.

    Oh wait.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited July 2013
    @Plato,

    I wonder if, before they started using coal to power the industrial revolution, whether NIMBYS, hand-wringers and luvvies tried to hold up the advancement of society because they thought the mines might spoil the "natural beauty" of the countryside and knock a few thousand off their house prices? ;)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Plato said:


    I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

    82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

    http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Neil said:

    Plato said:


    I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

    82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

    http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf
    Presumably they would say the same about any housing developments etc being built nearby..
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    taffys said:

    'Fracking could well provide some VERY interesting employment opportunities/benefits for many of the the northern towns and cities that were decimated by the demise of Coal and Steel...'

    Luckily labour were able to engineer a meaningful regeneration in these deprived heartland areas in their 13 years in government.

    Oh wait.....

    The question the North East needs to answer is whether it is possible to frack while sitting on a sofa and watching Sky TV.



  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited July 2013

    Neil said:

    Plato said:


    I wish they'd bugger off and let the locals have their own say.

    82% expressed the view that the Parish Council should oppose fracking.

    http://balcombeparishcouncil.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/fracking-poll-results.pdf
    Presumably they would say the same about any housing developments etc being built nearby..
    Presumably pollution of the water supply wouldnt be a concern cited in relation to a housing development so that is a reason to expect the numbers opposed to something like that to be lower.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    GIN1138 said:

    Plato said:

    I'm late to this appalling 'gaffe' but he said this

    " “I mean there obviously are, in beautiful natural areas, worries about not just the drilling and the fracking, which I think are exaggerated, but about the trucks, and the delivery, and the roads, and the disturbance, and those about justified worries,” he said.

    “But there are large and uninhabited and desolate areas. Certainly in part of the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking, well away from anybody’s residence where we could conduct without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”

    I'm struggling to see what's so bad about it if it helps create jobs - coal mining isn't exactly the most picturesque industry either.

    Indeed.

    I can't understand why everyone is so slow to embrace Shale Gas. It could provide unlimited, cheap, energy for decades, thousands of jobs directly and countless more employment opportunities indirectly, in some of the most deprived places in the country - We should get on with it ASAP, IMO.
    Well, there's the fact that finding new and innovative ways of extracting fossil fuel and further exacerbating the CO2 emissions / climate change problem is bordering on insane (regardless of whether you think it's too late, or "the US and China will do it anyway").

    But if it's profitable and companies desperately want to do it here in the UK, what exactly is holding them back? Government policy?

    Or the same kind of NIMBYism that holds back renewables (though I'd much rather have a pretty wind farm that enhances the environment in my back yard than a dirty hulking fracking rig)

    But the stupidity of the comments from this Tufftington Buffington Tory idiot aren't about fracking, they're about his prejudice and ignorance (which is all too common in the Tory Party).
This discussion has been closed.