politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldh
Comments
-
As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).
Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.
Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.
It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).0 -
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
It is quite astonishing that a party that were part of the govt 7 months ago, but now lose more deposits than teenagers in a strip club, have the gall to mock ones that go from 3% to 23%0 -
Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.0 -
Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing0 -
Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
0 -
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .0 -
Netflix already streaming 4k video.Sandpit said:
Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.0 -
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing0 -
O'Flynn's tweet sounded like the sort of thing you'd normally hear if you KNEW you were about 15 points in the lead.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
0 -
A few years back ISPs wanted the BBC to pay for the traffic they generateSandpit said:
Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7336940.stm0 -
I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).TOPPING said:As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).
Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.
Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.
It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).
I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.
Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.
Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.
Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.
0 -
...and still have million more voters than the Lib DemsMarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted
0 -
Yes, a mistake I agree... not everything has to be "the breakthrough moment", if it happens it happens, if it doesn't it doesn'tTheWhiteRabbit said:
Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
0 -
Sorry - that should be Orchard Ward - UKIP held Marine Ward.MarqueeMark said:slade said:Never mind Oldham West - here's the result we have all been waiting for. Bognor Regis Town Council ( Marine Ward): LD 265, Lab 216, Con 107, Green 25 - Lib Dem HOLD
Bugger Bognor.....0 -
@MarqueeMark *bows*0
-
But, still won nearly seven times as many votes as the Lib Dems in this contest.MarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
0 -
It does feel a bit 'What is the world coming to?' when we expect only politically correct opinions from boxers of all sportsmen.flightpath01 said:
Yes, but he is a boxer for goodness sake!kle4 said:
Well, it's at least a personality of some kind, which a few past winners were missing.Sandpit said:
He seems to be the latest target of the SJW illiberal liberals, for having an incorrect opinion.Dair said:
The value is in Tyson Fury.bigjohnowls said:
Andy McMurray bigger shoe in than Labour in Oldham WestPulpstar said:
SPOTYrottenborough said:
Ha. What are his tips for GOP and POTUS? It's high time we all started focusing on the next big betting event.bigjohnowls said:Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 30
Just stuck £25 on Lady C to win #ImACeleb at 25/1
Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 29
Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I had got on earlier!!
Good betting week for Toby!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/sports-personality-of-the-year/12032967/BBC-urged-to-drop-Tyson-Fury-from-SPOTY-shortlist-over-homophobic-and-misogynist-comments.html
BBC urged to drop Tyson Fury from SPOTY shortlist over homophobic and misogynist comments
Boxer said fellow Sports Personality contender Jessica Ennis-Hill "looks quite fit when she's got a dress on" and believes homosexuality should be criminalised
Glad to see there is some constancy in this ever changing world.
Do we really expect a heavyweight champ to be a supporter of gay marriage and women's rights?0 -
UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%isam said:
...and still have million more voters than the Lib DemsMarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted
LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%
UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .0 -
Quite a bit I imagine.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.0 -
Would you apply that logic to the Conservatives' vote share?flightpath01 said:
As I said last night, having seen a rather silly photo, I am quite pleased to see UKIPs expectations stuffed.HYUFD said:
Corbyn went up to Oldham to congratulate him and it was undoubtedly a boost for the leader after a torrid few weeks so I suspect Corbynistas will forgive him, McMahon even said he opposed airstrikes in SyriaSouthamObserver said:
Yep - a really strong addition to the Labour parliamentary party. The Corbynistas will clearly grow to hate him, but he has a very strong mandate.Sandpit said:Good interview by the Guardian with Jim McMahon from 2012.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/26/jim-mcmahon-leader-oldham-council
Easy to see that he had a huge personal vote in the area as someone who was young but cared about the place where his kids were growing up. He also got cross-party support for his reforms of the council.
Once again we see people actively voting against or restraining themselves to vote for UKIP. Given the low turn out there were clearly Labour abstentions but they chose to ignore UKIP as an alternative.
.
0 -
and succeeded in giving Labour its highest ever vote share in this seat and its predecessor seat since it was formed in 1950 .Sean_F said:
But, still won nearly seven times as many votes as the Lib Dems in this contest.MarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .0 -
Dr Johnson, prescient fellow that he was, obviously had UKIP and the LibDems in mind, when declaiming,isam said:
...and still have million more voters than the Lib DemsMarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted
"Sir, there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea."0 -
Its a bonkers world isn't it...glw said:
Quite a bit I imagine.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.0 -
I guess its tough for UKIP (and third parties generally) to do expectation management, since they need to convince people that voting for them isn't a wasted vote.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
0 -
LDems held Hotham ward and Orchard ward , UKIP held Marine ward in 3 by elections following resignations from the TC after a TC row over funding for the local cinema complexslade said:
Sorry - that should be Orchard Ward - UKIP held Marine Ward.MarqueeMark said:slade said:Never mind Oldham West - here's the result we have all been waiting for. Bognor Regis Town Council ( Marine Ward): LD 265, Lab 216, Con 107, Green 25 - Lib Dem HOLD
Bugger Bognor.....0 -
A fascinating article thank you. I'm interested in this idea that the key attraction of and use of Twitter is in focused communication, which the character limit which forces you to think about what you are posting actually helps with, and they may be undermining matters by going shallower and broader in an attempt to increase the user base, risking losing that key appeal.AlastairMeeks said:Here's a good (though long) article on why twitter will probably fail eventually:
https://www.baekdal.com/opinion/not-even-twitter-understands-twitter/
Summary: twitter doesn't understand its own product at all.0 -
Thanks v interesting.Sandpit said:
I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).TOPPING said:As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).
Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.
Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.
It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).
I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.
Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.
Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.
Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.
Yes I think (cf that article about twitter) is that in this case it is the users don't necessarily appreciate the relationship they have with the company. Not only is the UGC model now mature (bonjour, PB!) but in the facebook case, users are willingly providing the value for free and can, oh the horror, withdraw their "labour".
It is not a right to be able to use Facebook. Or perhaps it is becoming one...0 -
LOL, we need the Like button back!glw said:
Quite a bit I imagine.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
0 -
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Jezza, for lack of a better word, is good. Jezza is right, Jezza works. Jezza clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the
(R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.0 -
Is there a website that keeps tabs on council by-election results?MarkSenior said:
UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%isam said:
...and still have million more voters than the Lib DemsMarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted
LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%
UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .0 -
Understanding the relationship is the key. The way I would explain it to parents is that if you're not paying for a product then you generally *are* the product, and *you* are what is being sold to others for their profits.TOPPING said:
Thanks v interesting.Sandpit said:
I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).TOPPING said:
I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.
Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.
Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.
Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.
Yes I think (cf that article about twitter) is that in this case it is the users don't necessarily appreciate the relationship they have with the company. Not only is the UGC model now mature (bonjour, PB!) but in the facebook case, users are willingly providing the value for free and can, oh the horror, withdraw their "labour".
It is not a right to be able to use Facebook. Or perhaps it is becoming one...
Also to think of social media as "Someone Else's Website", when someone else owns whatever you post and can do what they like with it, including selling eg photos for their own profit. You did read the terms and conditions that gave them the copyright, didn't you?
While there are "Privacy Settings" these are often deliberately complicated or randomly reset by the provider. Stop and think why you want to tell the world (as an example) that you will be out all day/week - so by extension your house will be empty - do you know who all your "Friends" are? How about all their "friends"?
Now apply all of the above to your naive teenager and you'll see where I'm heading with this...0 -
Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
.0 -
It looks petty for the silver medallist and the also ran to squabble like this, Labour won comfortably as initial instincts forecast.MarkSenior said:
UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%isam said:
...and still have million more voters than the Lib DemsMarkSenior said:
facts hard to takeisam said:
dribble dribble #seniormomentMarkSenior said:
Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted
LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%
UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .
Neither of us can be happy; your party is on its last legs and mine isn't progressing as quickly as I would hope, lets leave it at that
0 -
0
-
@cyclefree,excellent news.0
-
LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing0 -
-
I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.
The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.
Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.0 -
The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
.
The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.
Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though0 -
And 350ish in May alone.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing
The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.0 -
I think you're confusing Netflix with Prime/Lovefilmglw said:
Quite a bit I imagine.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.0 -
Netflix started life as a DVD by post service.DaemonBarber said:
I think you're confusing Netflix with Prime/Lovefilmglw said:
Quite a bit I imagine.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.glw said:
And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".FrancisUrquhart said:Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.
So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.0 -
You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?Philip_Thompson said:
The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
.
The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.
Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though0 -
No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.Dair said:
And 350ish in May alone.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing
The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.0 -
New Thread New Thread
0 -
Since a lot of them have gone from Labour to BNP to UKIP I'm not convinced they'd all return to the Tories.MP_SE said:
You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?Philip_Thompson said:
The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
.
The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.
Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
Seriously why do people still promote this myth that UKIP voters are all ex Blues?0 -
How much does a 20,000 leaflet run cost ?Philip_Thompson said:
No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.Dair said:
And 350ish in May alone.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing
The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
Labour is surely free - local councillor and activists should be doing that.0 -
You make that conclusion from Oldham West which is one of Labour's top 60 safest seats?CopperSulphate said:I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.
The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.
Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.
The latest opinion polls have Labour's share down and UKIP's up:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20150 -
On Oldham, I'm thinking about this tweet (don't know who the tweeter is):
https://twitter.com/realhansard/status/672787254239232000
It's certainly true that UKIP has not been prominent in the news lately. However, is that any different from pre-H&M? I don't think so.0 -
Maybe the billboards with illegal immigrants 'Go home' was attempt to get the angry white men back ?Philip_Thompson said:
Since a lot of them have gone from Labour to BNP to UKIP I'm not convinced they'd all return to the Tories.MP_SE said:
You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?Philip_Thompson said:
The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.isam said:Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?
.
The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.
Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
Seriously why do people still promote this myth that UKIP voters are all ex Blues?0 -
Yes - pre H&M was quiet summer, with Carswell's defection and re-standing. (and then half way through, Reckless's defection as well if I remember correctly)Wanderer said:On Oldham, I'm thinking about this tweet (don't know who the tweeter is):
https://twitter.com/realhansard/status/672787254239232000
It's certainly true that UKIP has not been prominent in the news lately. However, is that any different from pre-H&M? I don't think so.0 -
Do you really think you are going to attract voters driving a van round blaring 'dreaming of a white christmas'?AndyJS said:
You make that conclusion from Oldham West which is one of Labour's top 60 safest seats?CopperSulphate said:I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.
The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.
Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.
The latest opinion polls have Labour's share down and UKIP's up:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
Having seen the photos of gurning kippers in flat caps and 'barbours' I cannot help think the whole thing was a joke to them. From the outside looking in it looks like a party out of control.
People keep saying Carswell is a clever bloke. Not to me he is.0 -
Do you know this from personal experience?MarkSenior said:
The Conservatives have had the Alzheimer nursing home vote sewn up in nursing homes for over 50 years why would they want to lose that advantage ?GarethoftheVale2 said:Regarding postal voting, I would restrict it to those living and working overseas. I would, however, offer 2 new options:
Advance voting - have a polling station open in the 2 weeks before the election at the council offices, where people can cast their ballot in person in advance
Mobile polling teams - have a team of council workers who go round with a mobile ballot box visiting nursing homes and housebound people in the week before the election allowing them to vote in person without having to go to the polling station
Hobbling around your own nursing home canvassing the other decrepit senile dribblers?0 -
Will be interesting to see how many Lib Dem candidates there are in local elections next May, They may struggle to find people prepared to stand in some parts of the contrary.Pulpstar said:
How much does a 20,000 leaflet run cost ?Philip_Thompson said:
No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.Dair said:
And 350ish in May alone.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?Pulpstar said:Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?
#Amazing
The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
Labour is surely free - local councillor and activists should be doing that.0 -
I'm very disappointed for UKIP. I genuinely thought this would be their moment - the moment they revealed themselves to be what every UKIP supporter knows within the very core of his being: that this is a party, nay an epoch, on the verge electoral domination. Instead we were inflicted with yet another miserable flop. As for citizen Farage, he's coming across more and more as a hustler and full of wind. I fear that the public will get bored (if they haven't already) and UKIP will wither on the vine.0
