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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn
This week’s podcast reacts to a momentous week in British politics as parliament votes to approve airstrikes in Syria and Labour convincingly holds Oldham West and Royton in Thursday’s by-election. What role has polling played? How strong is Jeremy Corbyn after a tough week and should public opinion really influence complex foreign policy decisions?
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Golly, she was a virgin and never seen a penis - totally ignorant of what sex was.
Ask anyone involved in databases or computer security if it's possible to conduct a free and fair election using computers and they will all say no. Even voting machines at polling stations suffer from being unable to provide proof that they have recorded votes accurately, added to the problems of training both voters and election workers in the correct use and being on the lookout for interference.
A UK general election conducted via the Internet would be big enough to attract the hacking community who like to break these things for LOLz, as well as assorted Russian and Chinese groups who like to do it for money and to undermine democracy.
With a bit of tweaking around postal votes, the system works quite well enough now without adding unnecessary complexity
"UKIP is to make a formal complaint about what it claims was evidence of electoral fraud in the Oldham West and Royton by-election.
The party, which came second to Labour, claims people had turned up at polling stations with "bundles of postal votes" and in some areas people had voted almost exclusively voted for Labour. "
i can understand if it was close, and might make a difference, or if there is proof of something seriously wrong, but this is not going to help UKIP
I think we need a secret ballot which neither postal voting nor, at present, e-voting allow. That's not to say it will never be possible.
Also, one should consider that ease of voting is relative. If people with the requisite technology can vote with the touch of a button from their lavatory then people without the required technology (say because they are poor or technophobic) will be *relatively* less likely to vote. It strikes me that Tories will tend to be wary of this change but it could very well advantage them.
Apparently *man* had two previous charges for sex by fraud.
There was a rape case from the 19th century in which a quack doctor convinced a woman that if he allowed him to have sex with her daughter, it would cure her daughter's mental illness.
But, it doesn't alter the truly appalling polling which Labour now enjoys, nor the likely outcome of May's local elections.
The two previous convictions and the innocence of the victim explain the severity of the sentence passed though.
If the only reason someone did not a)go to a polling station or b) use a postal or proxy vote, was they would have had to move from their computer desk to do so, then they clearly don't give a crap about voting in the first place. Or second place for that matter. Some people just don't want to participate in the process despite multiple methods to ensure if the main way to participate is problematic they can still participate. It really is not asking much of people to at least request a postal vote.
It always makes me think of '24 hours to save the NHS' and other such hyperbolic (if, presumably, passionately motivated) claims, where the proponents of how bad/great something is just goes overboard and loses its effectiveness as a message. if someone genuinely believes there are these barriers that are putting people off voting and that online voting will solve that injustice, I just cannot see it. If people are not engaged it is not because of the process of voting, it is the state of politics. You might well increase turnout, but people will be just as disengaged in actual terms.
In any case, if all we care about is getting higher turnout regardless of how engaged a person is (and they would have to be pretty effing unengaged if they would not vote at present but would if they could do so online), then we should just go with compulsory voting.
Nigel Farage should get straight to the police if he has evidence of electoral malpractice. Otherwise, he should shut up fast.
Or he could sound off like a pillock of course.
Camera shy anti Corbyn MP appears to overshadow Jezza triumph.
Advance voting - have a polling station open in the 2 weeks before the election at the council offices, where people can cast their ballot in person in advance
Mobile polling teams - have a team of council workers who go round with a mobile ballot box visiting nursing homes and housebound people in the week before the election allowing them to vote in person without having to go to the polling station
That will play better for UKIP in a more sympathetic environment than one of the safest labour seats in the country with a large muslim voting bloc.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12031842/Winning-the-Oldham-by-election-isnt-a-triumph-for-Jeremy-Corbyn.-Its-the-minimum.html
Excellent!
I'm not a supporter of either party so have no axe to grind, however it wouldn't be the first time that these sort of rumours and allegations have appeared in areas with large Asian populations.
Whether there is any substance to them or not it would appear a great result for Labour with a credible and engaging candidate.
http://politics.slashdot.org/story/12/03/02/1940236/in-theory-and-practice-why-internet-based-voting-is-a-bad-idea
Do a search on that site for "voting machines" and you'll see dozens of stories about experiences of the things in countries all over the world. Let's say that not many of the stories are positive.
I am sympathetic to JackW's point of view but the secrecy of the ballot is paramount.
Just stuck £25 on Lady C to win #ImACeleb at 25/1
Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 29
Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I had got on earlier!!
Good betting week for Toby!!
It is said that security through obscurity is no security at all, here is a prime example.
http://slashdot.org/?fhfilter=voting+machines for dozens of stories about the things, they're a stupid idea when we have a system that works.
A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.
In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.
Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.
Labour are on very dangerous ground.
'Remarkably, Corbyn emerges from this week stronger than ever (most of the PLP support his position, which is also that of the members, and no negative impact electorally at this point). Who'd have believed it ? '
Stronger than ever when 30% of his MP's vote against him including senior members of his shadow cabinet?
Stronger than ever when he wins a by-election in a rock solid Labour seat ?
No impact electorally,have you seen the national polls in what is Corbyn's honeymoon period ?
If UKIP do raise an election petition they would do all of us a favour. IMO it would be useful for the Electoral Commission to select a few constituencies with big postal votes and "audit" them, but I am not sure that is in their remit.
The best way to do that is the way they have always done it.
Of course that would take years, it's a shame they lack the foresight to predict problems and start something back in, say, 2011, to replace it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensferry_Crossing
Corbyn gives the impression of having as little idea about the WWC as Miliband or Cameron. He's been a politician for too long. And any views he does have are probably set firmly in the 1970s with the rest of his views.
It'd be interesting to hear a defence of him on that charge.
That's a keeper.
Perhaps this will convince Osborne that he can ape Brown all he wants, but he will never, ever get the respect or thanks of solid labour constituencies.
When you govern, you can;t please everybody. Unfortunate but true.
The likelihood that postal voting fraud is rife is much more reasonable an assumption than that it is secure and reliable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelwall_Viaduct
How much is that ?
Think he is Tony somebody used to do ballet i think.
Do i need to know the name or will the bookie accept "the one with the big tits"?
Only Labour could give this serial example of Electoral Poison work.
Just got an email from the Times about this month's free book. The Ice Twins by someone called SK Tremayne.
SeanT - when sales talked about doing x,y and z did you say no to anything?
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner-2/the-oldham-by-election-means-corbyn-is-safe-for-now
Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)
So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools.
Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.
(*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
(**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job.
1. Be @shadsy.
2. Lay Donald Trump @ 11/2
In the parallel universe where Kendall won the leadership, and in the shad cab were Dan Jarvis and co., he would fit right in and the lot of them would be scaring the bejeesus out of Cameron and Osborne right now!
I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
Beth Rigby
Tweeting again cos it needs 2b seen: @thetimes data team reveal #Yentob's expenses bill = £123,720 5 yrs April to 2015. £35k of it on cabs
MikeK, TSE and Patrick, based on provisional figures, came bottom
Any issues with the timing overlap are entirely the fault of SLAB.
Just a word of caution though. The Asian population in the constituency isn't huge and as was pointed out beforehand turnout isn't always the highest amongst them. That can't explain the size of Labour's win. What IS odd though is that it goes against the vibe of what we were hearing from Oldham.
Prediction: Lab: 8,912 (41.9%) / UKIP 7,780 (36.6%) / Con 3,381 (15.9%) / LD 801 (3.8%) / Greens 373 (1.8%). Make that a 14.5% swing. 1/2
@election_data @election_data 12h12 hours ago
Good night, this thing's cooked.
I demand a recount
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner
Do we know how the vote will be conducted, will it be a phone-in on the night as last year?
Edit: for anyone wanting far too much information on this:
http://www.constructionnews.co.uk/news/the-highways-agency-gets-its-bearings-right/860677.article