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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldh

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  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).

    Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.

    Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.

    It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    edited December 2015

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment

    It is quite astonishing that a party that were part of the govt 7 months ago, but now lose more deposits than teenagers in a strip club, have the gall to mock ones that go from 3% to 23%
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,952
    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".
    Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.

    I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing
  • Options
    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".
    Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.

    I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.
    Netflix already streaming 4k video.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.
    O'Flynn's tweet sounded like the sort of thing you'd normally hear if you KNEW you were about 15 points in the lead.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,100
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".
    Completely mind boggling. They also in the US (and possibly elsewhere) put servers inside ISP data centres, loaded with a constantly updating top x videos, in order to reduce the load on the backbone channels. The scale is difficult to imagine, one service responsible for 40% of all US internet traffic.

    I would imagine that the BBC iPlayer accounts for a measurable percentage of traffic in the UK.
    A few years back ISPs wanted the BBC to pay for the traffic they generate

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7336940.stm
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,952
    TOPPING said:

    As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).

    Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.

    Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.

    It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).

    I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).

    I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.

    Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.

    Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.

    Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    edited December 2015

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    ...and still have million more voters than the Lib Dems

    Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.
    Yes, a mistake I agree... not everything has to be "the breakthrough moment", if it happens it happens, if it doesn't it doesn't
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,940

    slade said:

    Never mind Oldham West - here's the result we have all been waiting for. Bognor Regis Town Council ( Marine Ward): LD 265, Lab 216, Con 107, Green 25 - Lib Dem HOLD


    Bugger Bognor.....
    Sorry - that should be Orchard Ward - UKIP held Marine Ward.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    @MarqueeMark *bows*
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    But, still won nearly seven times as many votes as the Lib Dems in this contest.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,952

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister Nov 30
    Just stuck £25 on Lady C to win #ImACeleb at 25/1

    Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 29

    Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I had got on earlier!!

    Good betting week for Toby!!

    Ha. What are his tips for GOP and POTUS? It's high time we all started focusing on the next big betting event.
    SPOTY
    Andy McMurray bigger shoe in than Labour in Oldham West
    The value is in Tyson Fury.
    He seems to be the latest target of the SJW illiberal liberals, for having an incorrect opinion.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/sports-personality-of-the-year/12032967/BBC-urged-to-drop-Tyson-Fury-from-SPOTY-shortlist-over-homophobic-and-misogynist-comments.html
    BBC urged to drop Tyson Fury from SPOTY shortlist over homophobic and misogynist comments
    Boxer said fellow Sports Personality contender Jessica Ennis-Hill "looks quite fit when she's got a dress on" and believes homosexuality should be criminalised
    Well, it's at least a personality of some kind, which a few past winners were missing.
    Yes, but he is a boxer for goodness sake!
    Glad to see there is some constancy in this ever changing world.
    It does feel a bit 'What is the world coming to?' when we expect only politically correct opinions from boxers of all sportsmen.

    Do we really expect a heavyweight champ to be a supporter of gay marriage and women's rights?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    ...and still have million more voters than the Lib Dems

    Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted

    UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%
    LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%

    UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".

    Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.
    Quite a bit I imagine.

    So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good interview by the Guardian with Jim McMahon from 2012.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/26/jim-mcmahon-leader-oldham-council
    Easy to see that he had a huge personal vote in the area as someone who was young but cared about the place where his kids were growing up. He also got cross-party support for his reforms of the council.

    Yep - a really strong addition to the Labour parliamentary party. The Corbynistas will clearly grow to hate him, but he has a very strong mandate.

    Corbyn went up to Oldham to congratulate him and it was undoubtedly a boost for the leader after a torrid few weeks so I suspect Corbynistas will forgive him, McMahon even said he opposed airstrikes in Syria
    As I said last night, having seen a rather silly photo, I am quite pleased to see UKIPs expectations stuffed.
    Once again we see people actively voting against or restraining themselves to vote for UKIP. Given the low turn out there were clearly Labour abstentions but they chose to ignore UKIP as an alternative.
    .
    Would you apply that logic to the Conservatives' vote share?

  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited December 2015
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    But, still won nearly seven times as many votes as the Lib Dems in this contest.

    and succeeded in giving Labour its highest ever vote share in this seat and its predecessor seat since it was formed in 1950 .
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    ...and still have million more voters than the Lib Dems

    Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted

    Dr Johnson, prescient fellow that he was, obviously had UKIP and the LibDems in mind, when declaiming,

    "Sir, there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea."
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited December 2015
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".

    Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.
    Quite a bit I imagine.

    So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
    Its a bonkers world isn't it...
  • Options

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Expectations management on the part of UKIP makes it seem thus and in particular I think Nigel Farage's way of sounding confident about everything.
    I guess its tough for UKIP (and third parties generally) to do expectation management, since they need to convince people that voting for them isn't a wasted vote.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Never mind Oldham West - here's the result we have all been waiting for. Bognor Regis Town Council ( Marine Ward): LD 265, Lab 216, Con 107, Green 25 - Lib Dem HOLD


    Bugger Bognor.....
    Sorry - that should be Orchard Ward - UKIP held Marine Ward.
    LDems held Hotham ward and Orchard ward , UKIP held Marine ward in 3 by elections following resignations from the TC after a TC row over funding for the local cinema complex
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    Here's a good (though long) article on why twitter will probably fail eventually:

    https://www.baekdal.com/opinion/not-even-twitter-understands-twitter/

    Summary: twitter doesn't understand its own product at all.

    A fascinating article thank you. I'm interested in this idea that the key attraction of and use of Twitter is in focused communication, which the character limit which forces you to think about what you are posting actually helps with, and they may be undermining matters by going shallower and broader in an attempt to increase the user base, risking losing that key appeal.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited December 2015
    Sandpit said:


    Do we really expect a heavyweight champ to be a supporter of gay marriage and women's rights?

    No, we expect them to be good, black British boys xD

    Fury will hold the belt until Joshua knocks him out cold.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    As we are on this subject a bit, I am increasingly amused by the various complaints against Facebook (MZ's charity give away notwithstanding).

    Today on you and yours there was a complaint that someone had set up a false page purporting to be someone else (a 12-yr old girl). They were furious, going to the company, the police and their local council. They were concerned that there was effectively no customer service.

    Apart from the fact that with over a billion users if even .1% of them wanted to complain each day that would be 1m calls a day, the more interesting point is that people treat facebook like a public utility. They are as upset that it is or isn't doing something, or that someone is or isn't doing something on it as they would be if the NHS decided not to treat anyone whose surname began with T.

    It is a private company and never have the words caveat emptor been more appropriate (although of course FB is free, to boot).

    I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).

    I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.

    Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.

    Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.

    Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.

    Thanks v interesting.

    Yes I think (cf that article about twitter) is that in this case it is the users don't necessarily appreciate the relationship they have with the company. Not only is the UGC model now mature (bonjour, PB!) but in the facebook case, users are willingly providing the value for free and can, oh the horror, withdraw their "labour".

    It is not a right to be able to use Facebook. Or perhaps it is becoming one...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,952
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".

    Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.
    Quite a bit I imagine.

    So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
    LOL, we need the Like button back! :+1:
  • Options
    The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Jezza, for lack of a better word, is good. Jezza is right, Jezza works. Jezza clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the
    (R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
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    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    ...and still have million more voters than the Lib Dems

    Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted

    UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%
    LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%

    UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .
    Is there a website that keeps tabs on council by-election results?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,952
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    I can talk all night about this one (and I do professionally, to schools and parents).

    I think the complaint is that a company worth $45bn should have a serious amount of customer service.

    Mr Average expects someone posting eg photos of their children online to be able to have them taken down quickly and efficiently. They may have no existing relationship with the company and are used to dealing with large companies by phone.

    Service will come in response to police or from court orders, and while they are becoming more international they generally revert to US levels of free speech until told by authorities to act differently.

    Also, the users don't understand they they are the unpaid product, the customers (those who pay social media companies money) are the advertisers. They get very good customer service.

    Thanks v interesting.

    Yes I think (cf that article about twitter) is that in this case it is the users don't necessarily appreciate the relationship they have with the company. Not only is the UGC model now mature (bonjour, PB!) but in the facebook case, users are willingly providing the value for free and can, oh the horror, withdraw their "labour".

    It is not a right to be able to use Facebook. Or perhaps it is becoming one...
    Understanding the relationship is the key. The way I would explain it to parents is that if you're not paying for a product then you generally *are* the product, and *you* are what is being sold to others for their profits.

    Also to think of social media as "Someone Else's Website", when someone else owns whatever you post and can do what they like with it, including selling eg photos for their own profit. You did read the terms and conditions that gave them the copyright, didn't you?

    While there are "Privacy Settings" these are often deliberately complicated or randomly reset by the provider. Stop and think why you want to tell the world (as an example) that you will be out all day/week - so by extension your house will be empty - do you know who all your "Friends" are? How about all their "friends"?

    Now apply all of the above to your naive teenager and you'll see where I'm heading with this...
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.


    .
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yes but their BNP mates also got over 7% in 2010
    dribble dribble #seniormoment
    facts hard to take

    Since the GE UKIP have been losing councillors by defection and at by elections , members , votes plummeting at local council by elections and funding drying up like the Kalahari desert in summer .
    ...and still have million more voters than the Lib Dems

    Never mind old chap, the glory days were average while they lasted

    UKIP vote share in 84 council by elections fought since May 10.7%
    LDem vote share in 85 council by elections fought since May 18.1%

    UKIP GE voters vanished like snow in July .
    It looks petty for the silver medallist and the also ran to squabble like this, Labour won comfortably as initial instincts forecast.

    Neither of us can be happy; your party is on its last legs and mine isn't progressing as quickly as I would hope, lets leave it at that ;)
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    @Cyclefree

    Excellent news indeed!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @cyclefree,excellent news.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
    LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Or really weedy looking pasty white boys
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:


    Do we really expect a heavyweight champ to be a supporter of gay marriage and women's rights?

    No, we expect them to be good, black British boys xD

    Fury will hold the belt until Joshua knocks him out cold.
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited December 2015
    I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.

    The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.

    Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.
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    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.


    .
    The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.

    The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.

    Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
    LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.
    And 350ish in May alone.

    The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
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    glw said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".

    Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.
    Quite a bit I imagine.

    So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
    I think you're confusing Netflix with Prime/Lovefilm
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Netflix wouldn't be the service it is today without AWS. Can you imagine trying to handle that much data....I believe recently Netflix shut down their last datacenter that they ran themselves, instead letting AWS do all the work for them.

    And Netflix is huge, IIRC at peak times they account for 40% of all US internet traffic, whereas web surfing in total is something like 10%. It is mind boggling that Netflix can buy all technological capability "as a service".

    Wonder how much that is worth to Amazon's bottom line? A lot more than reselling s##t from China at razor thin margins I would think.
    Quite a bit I imagine.

    So you have a vast internet television company, that used to send DVDs by post as an alternative to customers visiting rental stores, using the massive computing infrastructure of a company that started by selling books by post.
    I think you're confusing Netflix with Prime/Lovefilm
    Netflix started life as a DVD by post service.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.


    .
    The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.

    The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.

    Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
    You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?
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    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
    LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.
    And 350ish in May alone.

    The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
    No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.
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    New Thread New Thread

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    MP_SE said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.


    .
    The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.

    The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.

    Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
    You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?
    Since a lot of them have gone from Labour to BNP to UKIP I'm not convinced they'd all return to the Tories.

    Seriously why do people still promote this myth that UKIP voters are all ex Blues?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
    LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.
    And 350ish in May alone.

    The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
    No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.
    How much does a 20,000 leaflet run cost ?

    Labour is surely free - local councillor and activists should be doing that.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015

    I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.

    The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.

    Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.

    You make that conclusion from Oldham West which is one of Labour's top 60 safest seats?

    The latest opinion polls have Labour's share down and UKIP's up:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    On Oldham, I'm thinking about this tweet (don't know who the tweeter is):
    https://twitter.com/realhansard/status/672787254239232000

    It's certainly true that UKIP has not been prominent in the news lately. However, is that any different from pre-H&M? I don't think so.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    MP_SE said:

    isam said:

    Whoever would have thought when UKIP got 3% in OW&R 5 years ago that not winning a by election there in 2015 would have meant it was all up for them?

    Yep,it will take time,just like it did for the SNP.


    .
    The difference is that the SNP cultivated a USP of "we look after Scotland" which worked for Scottish voters.

    The UKIP put a more polite Middle Class shine on the BNPs "we are angry white men" which attracts a certain amount of protest votes but is not a USP for a party of office. Especially under FPTP.

    Last night the polite veneer slipped once more though
    You do realise if UKIP fades into obscurity all those "angry white men" will return in large numbers to the Tories and retoxify them?
    Since a lot of them have gone from Labour to BNP to UKIP I'm not convinced they'd all return to the Tories.

    Seriously why do people still promote this myth that UKIP voters are all ex Blues?
    Maybe the billboards with illegal immigrants 'Go home' was attempt to get the angry white men back ?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    Wanderer said:

    On Oldham, I'm thinking about this tweet (don't know who the tweeter is):
    https://twitter.com/realhansard/status/672787254239232000

    It's certainly true that UKIP has not been prominent in the news lately. However, is that any different from pre-H&M? I don't think so.

    Yes - pre H&M was quiet summer, with Carswell's defection and re-standing. (and then half way through, Reckless's defection as well if I remember correctly)
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    AndyJS said:

    I think we may unfortunately have seen peak UKIP.

    The current political climate could not be better for them with Labour becoming a joke, the Lib Dems practically dead, the current EU and migrant crisis and the Tories moving towards the centre ground and yet they are actually going down in the polls.

    Farage is looking tired and well past his sell by date and even I'm starting to wince at the way he comes across and I agree with most of the things that he says. He doesn't seem to have the patience to be amiable anymore. They should have accepted his resignation and got someone fresh in instead.

    You make that conclusion from Oldham West which is one of Labour's top 60 safest seats?

    The latest opinion polls have Labour's share down and UKIP's up:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
    Do you really think you are going to attract voters driving a van round blaring 'dreaming of a white christmas'?
    Having seen the photos of gurning kippers in flat caps and 'barbours' I cannot help think the whole thing was a joke to them. From the outside looking in it looks like a party out of control.
    People keep saying Carswell is a clever bloke. Not to me he is.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Regarding postal voting, I would restrict it to those living and working overseas. I would, however, offer 2 new options:

    Advance voting - have a polling station open in the 2 weeks before the election at the council offices, where people can cast their ballot in person in advance

    Mobile polling teams - have a team of council workers who go round with a mobile ballot box visiting nursing homes and housebound people in the week before the election allowing them to vote in person without having to go to the polling station

    The Conservatives have had the Alzheimer nursing home vote sewn up in nursing homes for over 50 years why would they want to lose that advantage ?
    Do you know this from personal experience?

    Hobbling around your own nursing home canvassing the other decrepit senile dribblers?
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who would have thought the Lib Dems would come within 300 votes of saving their deposit ?

    #Amazing

    Keeping up their reputation of the Lost Deposit party?
    LibDems have now lost 12 deposits from the last 20 Great Britain Westminster by-elections.
    And 350ish in May alone.

    The cupboard must be very bare by now. If there was a snap election, they would surely struggle to stand in every seat.
    No the deposit is a tiny fraction of the costs of running candidates. If the Lib Dems ever reach the stage of failing to stand candidates it won't be due to deposits alone.
    How much does a 20,000 leaflet run cost ?

    Labour is surely free - local councillor and activists should be doing that.
    Will be interesting to see how many Lib Dem candidates there are in local elections next May, They may struggle to find people prepared to stand in some parts of the contrary.
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    I'm very disappointed for UKIP. I genuinely thought this would be their moment - the moment they revealed themselves to be what every UKIP supporter knows within the very core of his being: that this is a party, nay an epoch, on the verge electoral domination. Instead we were inflicted with yet another miserable flop. As for citizen Farage, he's coming across more and more as a hustler and full of wind. I fear that the public will get bored (if they haven't already) and UKIP will wither on the vine.
This discussion has been closed.