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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldh

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    Sean_F said:

    It sounds unbelievable, but it convinced a jury. Some people are just very naïve.

    There was a rape case from the 19th century in which a quack doctor convinced a woman that if he allowed him to have sex with her daughter, it would cure her daughter's mental illness.

    Did the treatment work?
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    Sandpit said:

    There should be a word of warning for Labour after this result: they handsomely won the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, only for the SNP to absolutely smash them in that constituency four years later.

    A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.

    In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
    The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.

    Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.

    Labour are on very dangerous ground.

    The new MP looks very likely to be in touch with his core vote of all ethnicities. I cannot see him talking down to anyone. If Labour had more people like him the Tories would be quaking in their boots.
    The new MP strikes me as a thoroughly sensible chap.

    In the parallel universe where Kendall won the leadership, and in the shad cab were Dan Jarvis and co., he would fit right in and the lot of them would be scaring the bejeesus out of Cameron and Osborne right now!

    I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
    What is it about Kendall and Jarvis that makes you think they are polished Commons performers or compelling speakers?

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900
    David Prescott ‏@DavidPrescott 2h2 hours ago
    So Labour wins #OldhamWest by-election with greatest ever share of vote since seat was created in 1950
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    £7,000 a year on cabs -- is that a lot compared to the cost of a dedicated car and driver? It does not seem excessive for swanning around central London.

    Yowser

    Beth Rigby
    Tweeting again cos it needs 2b seen: @thetimes data team reveal #Yentob's expenses bill = £123,720 5 yrs April to 2015. £35k of it on cabs

    What's wrong with the Tube?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,206

    The Asian population in the constituency isn't huge and as was pointed out beforehand turnout isn't always the highest amongst them.

    Isn't that kind of the point?!
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    MrHarryCole: Shots fired. @SuzanneEvans1: "the harsh reality is that even without block postal voting we would still have lost in Oldham."

    Will it be all over by Xmas?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Sandpit said:

    There should be a word of warning for Labour after this result: they handsomely won the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, only for the SNP to absolutely smash them in that constituency four years later.

    A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.

    In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
    The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.

    Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.

    Labour are on very dangerous ground.

    The new MP looks very likely to be in touch with his core vote of all ethnicities. I cannot see him talking down to anyone. If Labour had more people like him the Tories would be quaking in their boots.
    The new MP strikes me as a thoroughly sensible chap.

    In the parallel universe where Kendall won the leadership, and in the shad cab were Dan Jarvis and co., he would fit right in and the lot of them would be scaring the bejeesus out of Cameron and Osborne right now!

    I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
    What is it about Kendall and Jarvis that makes you think they are polished Commons performers or compelling speakers?

    Benn would be leading that particular Gov't, Jarvis at Defence or Foreign.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    They still intend to retain the old bridge and the expectation is that a low traffic crossing will have lower maintenance costs. I'm not convinced.

    However, if it does need to come down at some point, there are a lot of reasons why a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing.

    The cost would be absolutely minimal.
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    Only one person in the PB Oldham competition had LAB above 60%.

    MikeK, TSE and Patrick, based on provisional figures, came bottom

    TSE bottom?.

    I demand a recount
    I went for UKIP on 70%
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Whilst not going for a conspiracy here - Labour's ex Woollas election agent was working for UKIP.

    I know his Make The Whities Angry angle caused a lot of fuss - Kippers must be wondering how an ex-Lab man could be so useless in a similar seat.

    Did Meacher's team do much canvassing before now? They hadn't needed to for decades.

    Biggest by election surprise since Glenrothes? Not the result as such (who cares?) but the vote shares. Let the conspiracies begin.

    Just a word of caution though. The Asian population in the constituency isn't huge and as was pointed out beforehand turnout isn't always the highest amongst them. That can't explain the size of Labour's win. What IS odd though is that it goes against the vibe of what we were hearing from Oldham.

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    Sandpit said:

    There should be a word of warning for Labour after this result: they handsomely won the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, only for the SNP to absolutely smash them in that constituency four years later.

    A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.

    In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
    The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.

    Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.

    Labour are on very dangerous ground.

    The new MP looks very likely to be in touch with his core vote of all ethnicities. I cannot see him talking down to anyone. If Labour had more people like him the Tories would be quaking in their boots.
    I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
    Source?
    Possibly they have been provoked into action by John Mann saying that the new MP will one day be leader.
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    Good morning, everyone (again).

    Miss Plato, interesting observation.

    We should also recall the many Labour by-election seats Miliband held.
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    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister Nov 30
    Just stuck £25 on Lady C to win #ImACeleb at 25/1

    Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 29

    Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I had got on earlier!!

    Good betting week for Toby!!

    Ha. What are his tips for GOP and POTUS? It's high time we all started focusing on the next big betting event.
    SPOTY
    Andy McMurray bigger shoe in than Labour in Oldham West
    The value is in Tyson Fury.
    Not if he loses
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    Only one person in the PB Oldham competition had LAB above 60%.

    MikeK, TSE and Patrick, based on provisional figures, came bottom

    TSE bottom?.

    I demand a recount
    I went for UKIP on 70%
    Probably need a few recounts then
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited December 2015
    It is an indictment of our system that accusations of electoral foul play can be levelled at a by election and even be taken seriously.

    40 years ago they would have been utterly scorned. Everybody knew the system was safe.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Have to say, whilst normally Mann annoys me a lot with his I'm Writing A Letter schick, he was jolly good against the TUSC nitwit on the DP this week.

    Sandpit said:

    There should be a word of warning for Labour after this result: they handsomely won the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, only for the SNP to absolutely smash them in that constituency four years later.

    A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.

    In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
    The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.

    Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.

    Labour are on very dangerous ground.

    The new MP looks very likely to be in touch with his core vote of all ethnicities. I cannot see him talking down to anyone. If Labour had more people like him the Tories would be quaking in their boots.
    I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
    Source?
    Possibly they have been provoked into action by John Mann saying that the new MP will one day be leader.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister Nov 30
    Just stuck £25 on Lady C to win #ImACeleb at 25/1

    Toby Young @toadmeister Nov 29

    Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I had got on earlier!!

    Good betting week for Toby!!

    Ha. What are his tips for GOP and POTUS? It's high time we all started focusing on the next big betting event.
    SPOTY
    Andy McMurray bigger shoe in than Labour in Oldham West
    The value is in Tyson Fury.
    Not if he loses
    15/8 for a top three finish appears to be a money purchase opportunity.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    There should be a word of warning for Labour after this result: they handsomely won the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, only for the SNP to absolutely smash them in that constituency four years later.

    A combination of a poor, ill-regarded leader, a core vote they treated with contempt, internal rivalries (Falkirk), and a strong, credible alternative saw Scottish Labour get destroyed in May.

    In Corbyn, they have a weak leader.
    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.
    The internal rivalries are there for everyone to see.

    Their only advantage lies in the last factor: many WWC would never vote Conservative. This by-election also shows that they'll never vote UKIP either.

    Labour are on very dangerous ground.

    The new MP looks very likely to be in touch with his core vote of all ethnicities. I cannot see him talking down to anyone. If Labour had more people like him the Tories would be quaking in their boots.
    I note that he's been on the receiving end of Momentum's hatred already this morning for being the wrong sort of Labour MP, and he's not even taken the Oath yet!
    Source?
    It was mentioned on here earlier that there were calls for him to be deselected in 2020, but TBF I haven't seen it myself from a brief search of Twitter so will withdraw the comment for now.
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    Only one person in the PB Oldham competition had LAB above 60%.

    MikeK, TSE and Patrick, based on provisional figures, came bottom

    TSE bottom?.

    I demand a recount
    I went for UKIP on 70%
    Probably need a few recounts then
    I meant to put Labour at 70%. Honest.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    If @Kinga is reading - your WikiDair joke still has me chuckling.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    I'm liking that 1-2 I took for Labour to be 200+ seats when Corbyn is replaced :)
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    Pulpstar said:

    I'm liking that 1-2 I took for Labour to be 200+ seats when Corbyn is replaced :)

    On credit too!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    They still intend to retain the old bridge and the expectation is that a low traffic crossing will have lower maintenance costs. I'm not convinced.

    However, if it does need to come down at some point, there are a lot of reasons why a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing.

    The cost would be absolutely minimal.
    Yes but think of the poor coastal walkers who don't take ferries! The Scottish government should build a new bridge for walkers just to prevent us having to suffer Boness and Kincardine. ;)

    Will no-one think of the walkers!

    I'm not convinced the old bridge will remain open either. I'd be interested to know the details of the latest problems.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding postal voting, I would restrict it to those living and working overseas. I would, however, offer 2 new options:

    Advance voting - have a polling station open in the 2 weeks before the election at the council offices, where people can cast their ballot in person in advance

    Mobile polling teams - have a team of council workers who go round with a mobile ballot box visiting nursing homes and housebound people in the week before the election allowing them to vote in person without having to go to the polling station

    The Conservatives have had the Alzheimer nursing home vote sewn up in nursing homes for over 50 years why would they want to lose that advantage ?
    Any evidence for that slur?
    TSE said something similar yesterday although expressed in a slightly less inflammatory way "the old dears forget to vote" or similar.

    If UKIP do raise an election petition they would do all of us a favour. IMO it would be useful for the Electoral Commission to select a few constituencies with big postal votes and "audit" them, but I am not sure that is in their remit.
    A journalist reported on a UKIP meeting where an asian gentleman explained that Labour activists had been telling the muslim community that if UKIP gained power they would deport them and that they are the BNP mk2. It is entirely plausable that UKIP have links to the muslim community and have been informed that some of the postal voting was fraudulent. If this is the case they have a right to be annoyed.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Any Barclay Bros tipsters want a bet,I'll be happy to lay it -like taking candy off babies.Is Toby Young vying with Dan Hodges for the Torygraph's worst tipster of all time?
    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister Nov 25
    Just placed a bet on UKIP to win in Oldham West. 11/4. Wish I’d got on earlier!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    john_zims said:

    @kle4

    'Remarkably, Corbyn emerges from this week stronger than ever (most of the PLP support his position, which is also that of the members, and no negative impact electorally at this point). Who'd have believed it ? '

    Stronger than ever when 30% of his MP's vote against him including senior members of his shadow cabinet?

    Stronger than ever when he wins a by-election in a rock solid Labour seat ?

    No impact electorally,have you seen the national polls in what is Corbyn's honeymoon period ?

    Stronger than ever does not mean 'very strong'. Reporting makes it seem he has virtually no support or even common ground with most of the PLP, but the majority are it seems of an accord with him.

    I have seen the polls, but they had no impact on the first 'electoral' test, the by-election. That may prove to be an isolated case, and it was always a rock solid Labour seat, but there was not even a dip in support as had been expected, so though those saying he will inevitably be toxic at other elections, and particularly a GE, may well be right, there was not scraped victory or loss here to prove that to be definitively so.

    It's a relative judgement, but yes, he is stronger than ever now, even if we think that still means doomed.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    The mayor of Calais is facing jail after banning migrants from the swimming pool.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,594
    edited December 2015
    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html

    Mr Galloway, who is now running for Mayor of London, is alleged to have misused parliamentary funds as an MP, by reportedly asking his assistant to buy his underwear, sort his laundry and plan his wedding.
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    Though it hasn't been a brilliant betting week for me either.

    I backed Ukip early on then laid back for a small profit, in truth I'm still learning from you guys.

    I made good profits from football for over ten years but the last couple of seasons I have lost, I've always done well with horses now I couldn't tip rubbish. Taken a sabbatical from both and decided to just bet on the sport that these days I enjoy watching more than any other, cricket. However I shall only use the spread markets.
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    Really interesting story amidst a good piece on prison reform from Norman Fowler:

    http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/could-i-have-prevented-a-kray-murder/
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    Show's what state the Labour Party's is in when it's celebrating the winning of its 61st safest seat in the UK with six thousand fewer votes than in May
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    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing
    As someone who travelled on the old one as the Forth Bridge was going up, it was picturesque with the rail bridge looming above you (I also passed the Mauretania at the breakers in Rosyth on that trip) - the question would be, would you have enough traffic to support it?

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    Mr. Pete, shade unfair. Everyone who offers tips gets some wrong (this year was not a vintage one for F1, either as spectacle or for my tips).

    That said, I do agree Young is a bit excitable and has some poor judgement (he called for blue-purple tactical voting at the General Election, forgetting that blue voters are about as likely to vote tactically as Xi Jinping).
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    I think the government need to reform postal voting so that only retired people and those with disabilities can use them. The current system is too open to abuse
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    SNP can't even keep the bridges open

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Yeah they should be spending money on replacing this aging relic.

    Of course that would take years, it's a shame they lack the foresight to predict problems and start something back in, say, 2011, to replace it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensferry_Crossing
    A similar thing happened near Manchester a decade or so ago, as anyone who used the M6 will attest. The difference there being that they managed to get the new bridge open before the old one started crumbling.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelwall_Viaduct
    I might be wrong, but I'm not sure it was that clever. From memory, they aimed to build the second viaduct, and then close the first so it could be renovated. They did this, but shortly after reopening they realised that it was cracking up (or at least its bearings were). There was therefore another lengthy closure.

    Edit: for anyone wanting far too much information on this:
    http://www.constructionnews.co.uk/news/the-highways-agency-gets-its-bearings-right/860677.article
    Good article. Didn't realise they'd already refurbed the old bridge once when the bearings failed. Do remember the 10-mile queues and endless 40mph speed limits with the new-fangled SPECS cameras watching over them though! :(
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    £7,000 a year on cabs -- is that a lot compared to the cost of a dedicated car and driver? It does not seem excessive for swanning around central London.

    Yowser

    Beth Rigby
    Tweeting again cos it needs 2b seen: @thetimes data team reveal #Yentob's expenses bill = £123,720 5 yrs April to 2015. £35k of it on cabs

    What's wrong with the Tube?
    An annual oystercard for all zones would be over £3k.
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    Mr. England, as Musashi said, all things entail rising and falling.

    Had some good and bad years with F1. Hopefully your form (and mine) will improve soon.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is he marrying her?!
    Pulpstar said:

    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html

    Mr Galloway, who is now running for Mayor of London, is alleged to have misused parliamentary funds as an MP, by reportedly asking his assistant to buy his underwear, sort his laundry and plan his wedding.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html

    Mr Galloway, who is now running for Mayor of London, is alleged to have misused parliamentary funds as an MP, by reportedly asking his assistant to buy his underwear, sort his laundry and plan his wedding.
    I wonder if the two are currently sitting MPs though.
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    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    They still intend to retain the old bridge and the expectation is that a low traffic crossing will have lower maintenance costs. I'm not convinced.

    However, if it does need to come down at some point, there are a lot of reasons why a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing.

    The cost would be absolutely minimal.
    I'm not convinced the old bridge will remain open either. I'd be interested to know the detail of the latest problems.
    Its staying closed until the New Year......
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Though it hasn't been a brilliant betting week for me either.

    I backed Ukip early on then laid back for a small profit, in truth I'm still learning from you guys.

    I made good profits from football for over ten years but the last couple of seasons I have lost, I've always done well with horses now I couldn't tip rubbish. Taken a sabbatical from both and decided to just bet on the sport that these days I enjoy watching more than any other, cricket. However I shall only use the spread markets.
    Betting on football, especially the lower divisions, has become a minefield. I'm sure there's money in laying odds on shots away from home in the Prem, the gap between the teams is narrowing all the time

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Is he marrying her?!

    Pulpstar said:

    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html

    Mr Galloway, who is now running for Mayor of London, is alleged to have misused parliamentary funds as an MP, by reportedly asking his assistant to buy his underwear, sort his laundry and plan his wedding.
    Who on earth would marry George Galloway ?!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Dair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    SNP can't even keep the bridges open

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Yeah they should be spending money on replacing this aging relic.

    Of course that would take years, it's a shame they lack the foresight to predict problems and start something back in, say, 2011, to replace it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensferry_Crossing
    A similar thing happened near Manchester a decade or so ago, as anyone who used the M6 will attest. The difference there being that they managed to get the new bridge open before the old one started crumbling.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelwall_Viaduct
    The replacement bridge was blocked by the Labour Party for years, the SNP began the plans as soon as they formed the government.

    Any issues with the timing overlap are entirely the fault of SLAB.
    I'm not sure that's the case. The full extent of the problems in the bridge were discovered in 2005. The SNP minority government was formed in May 2007. In June 2007 the Forth Replacement Crossing Study (2007) was released, recommending a bridge. Earlier parts of the report were released in February 2007, before the SNP came to power.

    It seems sensible to do a study into the alternatives (I favoured a tunnel, but I would) before detailed planning. And the Labour government commissioned that report.

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/road/forth-replacement-crossing/forth-replacement-crossing-study-2007
  • Options

    Though it hasn't been a brilliant betting week for me either.

    I backed Ukip early on then laid back for a small profit, in truth I'm still learning from you guys.

    I made good profits from football for over ten years but the last couple of seasons I have lost, I've always done well with horses now I couldn't tip rubbish. Taken a sabbatical from both and decided to just bet on the sport that these days I enjoy watching more than any other, cricket. However I shall only use the spread markets.
    Betting on football, especially the lower divisions, has become a minefield. I'm sure there's money in laying odds on shots away from home in the Prem, the gap between the teams is narrowing all the time

    Strangely enough that is one area me and my betting mate are looking at, will let you know how it goes.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    They still intend to retain the old bridge and the expectation is that a low traffic crossing will have lower maintenance costs. I'm not convinced.

    However, if it does need to come down at some point, there are a lot of reasons why a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing.

    The cost would be absolutely minimal.
    I'm not convinced the old bridge will remain open either. I'd be interested to know the detail of the latest problems.
    Its staying closed until the New Year......
    Ouch. There must be a chance it won't reopen fully.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    They still intend to retain the old bridge and the expectation is that a low traffic crossing will have lower maintenance costs. I'm not convinced.

    However, if it does need to come down at some point, there are a lot of reasons why a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing.

    The cost would be absolutely minimal.
    Yes but think of the poor coastal walkers who don't take ferries! The Scottish government should build a new bridge for walkers just to prevent us having to suffer Boness and Kincardine. ;)

    Will no-one think of the walkers!

    I'm not convinced the old bridge will remain open either. I'd be interested to know the details of the latest problems.
    Latest press release suggests it will be closed for a month!
    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/news/forth-road-bridge-closed-until-new-year
    Chartered Engineer Mark Arndt, Amey's Account Director responsible for the bridge said:

    “This is a complex engineering challenge. The component failure is in a difficult to access location and our response is also highly dependent on weather conditions.

    “We continue to work around the clock on inspections, assessments and calculations along with the development of designs to effect the necessary repairs, while at the same time mobilising all the resources required to reopen the bridge as soon as is possible.”
  • Options
    Mr. Pulpstar, nobody would marry the Earl of Doncaster!

    Except, perhaps, the Duke of Beaufort...
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Masochists
    George Galloway, 58, marries fourth wife 31 years his junior as ex father-in-law accuses him of bigamy

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2207348/George-Galloway-58-marries-fourth-wife-ex-father-law-accuses-bigamy.html#ixzz3tLpYYFbC
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Pulpstar said:

    Is he marrying her?!

    Pulpstar said:

    By election(s) alert

    MPs are being investigated by police over their taxpayer-funded expenses, the Standard can reveal today.

    Scotland Yard has assessed at least three cases in the past year involving allegations against politicians or their staff. The revelation stunned MPs at Westminster. It will reignite concerns over MPs’ use of public cash after the 2009 expenses scandal which rocked Parliament.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/two-mps-in-new-expenses-inquiry-shock-scotland-yard-probe-into-use-of-public-cash-a3129911.html

    Mr Galloway, who is now running for Mayor of London, is alleged to have misused parliamentary funds as an MP, by reportedly asking his assistant to buy his underwear, sort his laundry and plan his wedding.
    Who on earth would marry George Galloway ?!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Labour's Oldham win will secure Jez in place until May at least...

    Then only another four years to go...

    #Tories4Corbyn
  • Options

    Biggest by election surprise since Glenrothes? Not the result as such (who cares?) but the vote shares. Let the conspiracies begin.

    Just a word of caution though. The Asian population in the constituency isn't huge and as was pointed out beforehand turnout isn't always the highest amongst them. That can't explain the size of Labour's win. What IS odd though is that it goes against the vibe of what we were hearing from Oldham.

    Reporters going in search of stories; top class Labour expectation management; a poor UKIP campaign that seems to have taken the WWC vote for granted (very Labour); and maybe one more thing: the Benn speech got a lot of coverage, almost all of it positive. That may actually have won Labour some votes on the day. It put a spring in many disillusioned steps.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    GIN1138 said:

    Labour's Oldham win will secure Jez in place until May at least...

    Then only another four years to go...

    #Tories4Corbyn

    Amen to that.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing
    As someone who travelled on the old one as the Forth Bridge was going up, it was picturesque with the rail bridge looming above you (I also passed the Mauretania at the breakers in Rosyth on that trip) - the question would be, would you have enough traffic to support it?

    Anecdotally, there are lots of people who walk over the bridge, but when the reach the other side they don't go down the steps and just head back across. It's like it is a walk in the park for locals.

    I've seen people do similar on the Humber Bridge, but not the Severn.

    However, cyclist commuters do seem to use it for 'proper' transport. They could perhaps be catered for by a bike-bus over the new bridge.

    All anecdotally, of course.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:


    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.

    Is this our perception, or a fact ?
    Perception. Hence 'seem to'

    Corbyn gives the impression of having as little idea about the WWC as Miliband or Cameron. He's been a politician for too long. And any views he does have are probably set firmly in the 1970s with the rest of his views.

    It'd be interesting to hear a defence of him on that charge.
    Treating the white working class as a single block is the first error. many WWC people work in low pay, public service jobs. Many others in low pay, private sector jobs. They have very different life experiences, but none will incline them towards the right.
  • Options
    Who the hell would want to walk across a bridge over a wide estuary in Scotland in December?
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Labour's Oldham win will secure Jez in place until May at least...

    Then only another four years to go...

    #Tories4Corbyn

    Amen to that.
    Obsorne is definitely a paid up member...

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/672687202611109888
  • Options

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing
    As someone who travelled on the old one as the Forth Bridge was going up, it was picturesque with the rail bridge looming above you (I also passed the Mauretania at the breakers in Rosyth on that trip) - the question would be, would you have enough traffic to support it?

    Anecdotally, there are lots of people who walk over the bridge, but when the reach the other side they don't go down the steps and just head back across. It's like it is a walk in the park for locals.
    I've done that! Parked in the car park on the Edinburgh side and walked across & back - pretty blustery mind!
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:


    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.

    Is this our perception, or a fact ?
    Perception. Hence 'seem to'

    Corbyn gives the impression of having as little idea about the WWC as Miliband or Cameron. He's been a politician for too long. And any views he does have are probably set firmly in the 1970s with the rest of his views.

    It'd be interesting to hear a defence of him on that charge.
    none will incline them towards the right.
    I hope Labour shares your analysis......
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Who the hell would want to walk across a bridge over a wide estuary in Scotland in December?

    A Scotsman looking for a lost coin.
  • Options
    KingaKinga Posts: 59

    Who the hell would want to walk across a bridge over a wide estuary in Scotland in December?

    Careful. Admiral Sigmund WikiDair has pronounced that not only will it be built at minimal cost, it is THE RIGHT THING TO DO.

    He's a Chartered Civil Engineer as well you know.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2015
    I know it doesn't seem immediately apparent but Labour and UKIP motivated the same proportion (73%) of their May 2015 vote to turnout. Labour did no better than UKIP, and UKIP no worse than Labour.

    The headline percentage change is almost entirely down to Tories not bothering to vote or take sides because:

    a) The seat is unwinnable;
    b) There is a Tory government in place until 2020;

    The big issue for UKIP is that Tories may see no reason to support them tactically whilst the parliamentary arithmetic is what it is. So, how can they break through?

    The only thing I can see to help them is Corbyn dragging Labour further left.
  • Options

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing
    As someone who travelled on the old one as the Forth Bridge was going up, it was picturesque with the rail bridge looming above you (I also passed the Mauretania at the breakers in Rosyth on that trip) - the question would be, would you have enough traffic to support it?

    Anecdotally, there are lots of people who walk over the bridge, but when the reach the other side they don't go down the steps and just head back across. It's like it is a walk in the park for locals.

    I've seen people do similar on the Humber Bridge, but not the Severn.

    However, cyclist commuters do seem to use it for 'proper' transport. They could perhaps be catered for by a bike-bus over the new bridge.

    All anecdotally, of course.
    A long time ago I cycled with a friend from John O'Groats to Land's End during the university summer holidays. To liven things up, we held a couple of competitive time trials each day, complete with stage name. One such was over the Forth Bridge, and was thus titled "Bored on the Forth in July".
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Labour's Oldham win will secure Jez in place until May at least...

    Then only another four years to go...

    #Tories4Corbyn

    Amen to that.
    Obsorne is definitely a paid up member...

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/672687202611109888
    George seems to be taking defeat alot better than Nige.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited December 2015
    Good interview by the Guardian with Jim McMahon from 2012.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/26/jim-mcmahon-leader-oldham-council
    Easy to see that he had a huge personal vote in the area as someone who was young but cared about the place where his kids were growing up. He also got cross-party support for his reforms of the council.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:


    Labour still seem to want to talk down to the WWC, rather than help them.

    Is this our perception, or a fact ?
    Perception. Hence 'seem to'

    Corbyn gives the impression of having as little idea about the WWC as Miliband or Cameron. He's been a politician for too long. And any views he does have are probably set firmly in the 1970s with the rest of his views.

    It'd be interesting to hear a defence of him on that charge.
    none will incline them towards the right.
    I hope Labour shares your analysis......

    It's kind of born out in the data. What seems clear is that there does not seem to be a rush to UKIP.

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited December 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    ...so I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Tremendous news, congratulations!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075

    Who the hell would want to walk across a bridge over a wide estuary in Scotland in December?

    Because you can. :)
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Huzzah
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    Never mind Oldham West - here's the result we have all been waiting for. Bognor Regis Town Council ( Marine Ward): LD 265, Lab 216, Con 107, Green 25 - Lib Dem HOLD
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    That's very good news.
  • Options
    @Cyclefree - Great news!
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Great news!
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Well done you, a sense of perspective is vital.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Superb news - enjoy the extra sunny sunshine.
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Woo, brilliant news Ms @cyclefree :D
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited December 2015
    NYT on the case of Zuckerberg tax planning, I mean giving his fortune away to himself. They dissect his latest spin about how it isn't tax efficient to do so and the claim that they will pay capital gains.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/dealbook/how-mark-zuckerbergs-altruism-helps-himself.html

  • Options
    Miss Cyclefree, huzzah!

    I knew that goat I sacrificed to Asclepius on your behalf would not be in vain.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Excellent news.
  • Options
    F1: Red Bull have Renault engines for 2016:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35004203

    Turns out the team whining like bitches didn't necessarily work well for them.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Great news Ms Cyclefree.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Good interview by the Guardian with Jim McMahon from 2012.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/26/jim-mcmahon-leader-oldham-council
    Easy to see that he had a huge personal vote in the area as someone who was young but cared about the place where his kids were growing up. He also got cross-party support for his reforms of the council.

    Yep - a really strong addition to the Labour parliamentary party. The Corbynistas will clearly grow to hate him, but he has a very strong mandate.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited December 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    There's nothing quite so good as being told you're "cancer free" is there?

    Congrats. :smiley:
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:


    They 'predicted' the problems six years after problems were uncovered in 2005. Great predictive powers there!

    Stupidly, AIUI they're not building a walkway across the new bridge. ISTR the old bridge is supposed to be kept open for buses and pedestrians (*), but as I've pointed out passim, the maintenance costs will be too great to keep it open long-term for those purposes.It'll either have to be massively upgraded or taken down. (**)

    So the great unwashed walkers will have to go via Kincardine, poor fools. ;)

    Whatever the answer, something went seriously wrong with either the construction or the maintenance of the Forth Road Bridge. It's 120+ year predicted lifespan started to look ropey at 40, and is looking imperilled at 50. Other bridge builders and maintainers will be anxiously looking at what's going on.

    (*) I'd love to know if that's still the case.
    (**) I can't think of a case where such a large suspension bridge has been intentionally demolished. It'll be tricky. My dad would have loved the job. ;)

    a new foot and cycle ferry between the Queensferry's would be a better option given both the length of the crossing and the potential to attract tourists to what would be a relatively pictureque crossing
    As someone who travelled on the old one as the Forth Bridge was going up, it was picturesque with the rail bridge looming above you (I also passed the Mauretania at the breakers in Rosyth on that trip) - the question would be, would you have enough traffic to support it?

    The Yoker ferry subsidy is only £400k a year and that crossing is pretty dead most of the time. I'd expect the summer tourist trade to cover the full cost for the year of a new Queensferry ferry. It might also boost North Queenferry's tourist trade which is negligible compared to South Queensferry.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    NYT on the case of Zuckerberg tax planning, I mean giving his fortune away to himself. They dissect his latest spin about how it isn't tax efficient to do so and the claim that they will pay capital gains.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/dealbook/how-mark-zuckerbergs-altruism-helps-himself.html

    WIth that amount of money, you aren't just giving it to say a hospice; you're building, running and managing a chain of hospices. It's interesting for sure.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    SNP can't even keep the bridges open

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Yeah they should be spending money on replacing this aging relic.

    Of course that would take years, it's a shame they lack the foresight to predict problems and start something back in, say, 2011, to replace it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensferry_Crossing
    A similar thing happened near Manchester a decade or so ago, as anyone who used the M6 will attest. The difference there being that they managed to get the new bridge open before the old one started crumbling.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelwall_Viaduct
    The replacement bridge was blocked by the Labour Party for years, the SNP began the plans as soon as they formed the government.

    Any issues with the timing overlap are entirely the fault of SLAB.
    I'm not sure that's the case. The full extent of the problems in the bridge were discovered in 2005. The SNP minority government was formed in May 2007. In June 2007 the Forth Replacement Crossing Study (2007) was released, recommending a bridge. Earlier parts of the report were released in February 2007, before the SNP came to power.

    It seems sensible to do a study into the alternatives (I favoured a tunnel, but I would) before detailed planning. And the Labour government commissioned that report.

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/road/forth-replacement-crossing/forth-replacement-crossing-study-2007
    Wouldn't a tunnel need to be very, very steep given the geology? Or very long and expensive to even out the gradient.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    For anyone not bored by it, here's the New Civil Engineer's take on the Firth Bridge problems:
    http://www.nce.co.uk/news/structures/forth-bridge-defective-member-previously-deemed-not-highly-stressed/8692911.article

    Sounds quite worrying that they didn't think the failed member was highly stressed. This has to put the medium-term future of the bridge in doubt.
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    BREAKING

    Met Police investigating two cases of alleged misuse of MPs' expenses - BBC
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello all,

    A beautiful day here in London. Perfect weather this weekend for me to finish planting my spring bulbs: allium and tulips and iris.

    A touch of hyperbole I think over Oldham: Labour holds onto safe seat with reduced majority 7 months after a general election doesn't strike me as sensational.

    Anyway, the reason for my good humour this morning is that I have finally got the all clear re the cancer scare - after a lot of tests etc and monitoring for quite some time, no immediate need to go off to radiotherapy and the rest of it. Various other things wrong that I need to deal with but these are not, fortunately, terminal.

    So I am like Tigger on speed today, bouncing around with happiness!!

    A big thank you to all PBers for your kind wishes.

    Good morning all. Huzzah! I'm very glad that my favourite contributor will be knocking it out of the park for years to come :). Have a lovely euphoric weekend!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    I wonder what her local Party thinks of this newbie http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12032792/Tory-MP-who-branded-George-Osborne-too-smooth-would-prefer-to-be-independent.html

    I'm all for independent mindedness, this seems a bit rich.
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    Delighted to hear you are ok Cyclefree. Fantastic news.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited December 2015

    NYT on the case of Zuckerberg tax planning, I mean giving his fortune away to himself. They dissect his latest spin about how it isn't tax efficient to do so and the claim that they will pay capital gains.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/dealbook/how-mark-zuckerbergs-altruism-helps-himself.html

    I wonder how much of this - apart from the good publicity - is a cover for huge sales of a stock that could be worthless in a few years' time as technology marches on?

    He would rather bank a billion in real money than rely on a theoretical multiple of that in his own company's shares.
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    Blimey (NB the actual tweet isn't asterisked!)

    @election_data@election_data 18 minutes ago

    Angry blog coming later. Nobody will be spared.

    @election_data@election_data 4 minutes ago

    You c*nts on Twitter have the front, the brass neck, to mock me on Twitter after all that I have done. This blog's gonna be fun.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    BREAKING

    Met Police investigating two cases of alleged misuse of MPs' expenses - BBC

    So long as they're not the members for Richmond Park or Tooting.......
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Have you seen Lighthouse Stevensons on BBC4? Good docu on engineering challeges and dynasty.

    For anyone not bored by it, here's the New Civil Engineer's take on the Firth Bridge problems:
    http://www.nce.co.uk/news/structures/forth-bridge-defective-member-previously-deemed-not-highly-stressed/8692911.article

    Sounds quite worrying that they didn't think the failed member was highly stressed. This has to put the medium-term future of the bridge in doubt.

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    I wonder what her local Party thinks of this newbie http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12032792/Tory-MP-who-branded-George-Osborne-too-smooth-would-prefer-to-be-independent.html

    I'm all for independent mindedness, this seems a bit rich.

    DESELECT THE WITCH
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    SNP can't even keep the bridges open

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Yeah they should be spending money on replacing this aging relic.

    Of course that would take years, it's a shame they lack the foresight to predict problems and start something back in, say, 2011, to replace it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensferry_Crossing
    A similar thing happened near Manchester a decade or so ago, as anyone who used the M6 will attest. The difference there being that they managed to get the new bridge open before the old one started crumbling.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelwall_Viaduct
    The replacement bridge was blocked by the Labour Party for years, the SNP began the plans as soon as they formed the government.

    Any issues with the timing overlap are entirely the fault of SLAB.
    I'm not sure that's the case. The full extent of the problems in the bridge were discovered in 2005. The SNP minority government was formed in May 2007. In June 2007 the Forth Replacement Crossing Study (2007) was released, recommending a bridge. Earlier parts of the report were released in February 2007, before the SNP came to power.

    It seems sensible to do a study into the alternatives (I favoured a tunnel, but I would) before detailed planning. And the Labour government commissioned that report.

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/road/forth-replacement-crossing/forth-replacement-crossing-study-2007
    Wouldn't a tunnel need to be very, very steep given the geology? Or very long and expensive to even out the gradient.
    Possibly. That would depend on whether it was a Medway or Conway style immersed tube tunnel or a bored one.

    It's been years since I read the report, and can't remember the details. But the following appears to be an outline of the decision:
    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/system/files/documents/tsc-basic-pages/FRC-Decision-Journalist-Briefing-Sheet-Dec07.pdf

    As an aside, something I found whilst looking for this: there was once a tunnel under the Forth:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/scotland-blog/2014/apr/30/scotland-firthofforth-coal
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    So Erm is this Labour's best ever week....under jc at least....
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    chestnut said:

    I know it doesn't seem immediately apparent but Labour and UKIP motivated the same proportion (73%) of their May 2015 vote to turnout. Labour did no better than UKIP, and UKIP no worse than Labour.

    The headline percentage change is almost entirely down to Tories not bothering to vote or take sides because:

    a) The seat is unwinnable;
    b) There is a Tory government in place until 2020;

    The big issue for UKIP is that Tories may see no reason to support them tactically whilst the parliamentary arithmetic is what it is. So, how can they break through?

    The only thing I can see to help them is Corbyn dragging Labour further left.

    By elections are a big opportunity for the challenger party to get a big swing, here's some examples https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records.

    It's clear that UKIP have failed to take advantage of that opportunity. Retaining 73% of their GE vote is not great when you're the obvious challenger.

    Here's what the UKIP candidate was saying a few days ago:
    "If Ukip doesn’t win — something Bickley is admits is very possible — he thinks Thursday’s vote will be a big moment for the party. ‘Either way, we are back in the game because we’ll either win it and it’s a game changer or we’ll get a brilliant second place’. He won’t be drawn on what would count as a success but the local Ukip operation is optimistic about their chances."
This discussion has been closed.