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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: The 2016 White Hous

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: The 2016 White House race with Stan Greenberg

On this week’s episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran discusses the 2016 US Presidential race with Democratic pollster and strategist Stan Greenberg.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    First like UKIP in Oldham.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    edited November 2015
    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Trump for ever!
  • Mike said this was the best podcast yet, he was right.
  • Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
  • Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2015
    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?
  • Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    It was the 1922 that told Osborne to do something about the tax credit cuts and housing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pong said:

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    Loud banging of desks for Osborne at the 1922 tonight
  • Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    100 years since they were formed if they have any sense, let the Tories waltz the next GE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2015

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
  • And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
  • And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    I think it is going to go down very badly.
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
  • And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    The stamp duty change doesn't apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland, I understand.

    Good rental returns in Northern Ireland...
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    That seemed to be the take I heard from the experts on the radio earlier.
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    FPT:



    I's like to believe that you're such an idiot. But you've sadly provided plenty of evidence otherwise in the past.

    You've linked to stories that exhibit exactly the characteristics you mention above, yet oddly because they match your opinions you put them on here.

    What is a 'professional outfit' on the Internet? 'Partial and one-sided' is also very much in the eye of the observer, and the test can easily be fooled by a good writer. 'Cross checking' is also difficult on the Internet, where many stories on different sites can all link back to the same single source.

    And the source does matter: what do you call a 'proper' source? For instance, a source that is from a small media organisation owned by a friend of Assad's should be treated with a certain amount of criticism if it backs that regime. Yet you failed to mention that.

    You just try to use arbitrary distinctions to rubbish sources you dislike, and forget those distinctions when the sources contain information you like.

    This isn't really about politics any more, it's about a basic failure on your part to read and comprehend. Your first para here isn't even English as far as I can make out.

    READ the source that Alistair cited and you might understand. My list of objections do not refer to any internet outfit, it refers to the 'Monitoring group' known as 'The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights' (it might sound a bit more credible if someone told him what an observatory actually is). This monitoring group IS an insurgent propaganda operation. It's not pretending to be otherwise. Furthermore it does not even endeavour to list sources for its claims on casualty numbers. It is this organisation that I claim is not a professional outfit. It is not in any way a credible or reliable source of casualty numbers, let alone trying to work out percentages. You would surely agree?

    As for the rest of it, that's precisely what I DON'T do. I don't judge a book by it's cover - I note it for sure, but as to the rest, I recognise and have said frequently (including in discussions with you) that there is no such thing as an impartial or even a fully trustworthy media source, and you should read them all with full knowledge of their agenda.

    I'm sorry I really can't make the distinction any clearer for you.


  • And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    The stamp duty change doesn't apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland, I understand.

    Good rental returns in Northern Ireland...
    So I could start buying properties in Scotland.

    Interesting.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    I think it is going to go down very badly.
    I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.

    His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...
  • You know someone here said that this Autumn Statement was a win for the odler against the younger.


    But I do not know anyone who owns a property which is entirely buy-to-let under the age of 40. Whilst such business no doubt exist, it is commerce for the young and an amateur hobby for the middle-aged.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2015
    Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Newsnight: So Tories get to put up the Chief Sec to Treasury + Chancellor's former chief of staff. Left gets Alexi Sayell praising Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2015
    Charles said:

    And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    I think it is going to go down very badly.
    I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.

    His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...
    Way too many people are over invested in their property as a source of wealth. Any reduction of house prices, plus the inevitable rise in interest rates (that is going to be a killer for a lot of people), is going to leave a lot of people unhappy at the government (despite arguably being their own fault).
  • Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Newsnight: So Tories get to put up the Chief Sec to Treasury + Chancellor's former chief of staff. Left gets Alexi Sayell praising Corbyn

    Sorry you what...this is just surreal.
  • MP_SE said:

    Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.
    To put things in perspective:

    @RBS_Economics

    Thatcher left office with spending/GDP 6.4% lower than when she arrived. Osborne will hit 6% in 2015

    To say Osborne isn't a Tory, is frankly ludicrous,

    H/T Richard Nabavi
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Clearly the Mail is mistaken. Austerity is here to stay...

    @ScotNational: Tomorrow's front page: UK braced for a decade of Osborne austerity, despite tax credits u-turn https://t.co/cfGFtj2xLb
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Charles said:

    And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    I think it is going to go down very badly.
    I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.

    His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...
    Although the Daily Mail seems to think it is the end of buy-to-let and second homes. Who knew that the buy to let business model was entirely populated by people who couldn't figure out to offer 97% of the asking price....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    MP_SE said:

    Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.
    Get over it. Could be worse for you. Take it from me.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited November 2015

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
    Karma is such a bitch
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    Are you trying to say Osborne is not omnipotent? :o
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    That seemed to be the take I heard from the experts on the radio earlier.
    If tax receipts fall below predictions or interest rates rise by more than a little bit the Osborne will be in the smelly stuff. I don't think there has to be an actual recession just things not going according to the best case.

    He will probably fail but the awful thing is, politically, it won't matter - who is offering an reasonable alternative?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
    Where can that be found?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    If there is a recession he's fucked whatever he did PROVIDED there is someone else to vote for. The Tories would give the electorate someone else to vote for. It's Osborne's career that's on the line not the Tories as "someone else to vote for" stands at present.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2015
    Evan Davis on Newsnight pushing another BBC conspiracy theory. Whatever happened to all those conspiracy theories on falls in unemployment?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    Are you trying to say Osborne is not omnipotent? :o
    I fear John McDonnell will allow Osborne to relax.

    Ozzy like Dave is at his best when he's under pressure.

    Ozzy had to be at the top of his game when dealing with Ed Balls. He doesn't have to be when his shadow is McDonnell.
  • You know someone here said that this Autumn Statement was a win for the odler against the younger.


    But I do not know anyone who owns a property which is entirely buy-to-let under the age of 40. Whilst such business no doubt exist, it is commerce for the young and an amateur hobby for the middle-aged.

    Isn't Stamp Duty payable on the purchase of properties? So anyone old who already has one won't be affected and anyone in future planning on buying one (or another one) will be aware of the taxes up front and need to budget accordingly.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    The stamp duty change doesn't apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland, I understand.

    Good rental returns in Northern Ireland...
    You can get your walls painted for free too.
  • Moses_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
    Where can that be found?
    He was tweeting at a Labour MP.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Jonathan said:

    MP_SE said:

    Pong said:

    If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

    The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

    How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

    The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.
    Get over it. Could be worse for you. Take it from me.
    * throws Jonathan his copy of The Little Book of Calm across the Dispatch Box *
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    I think events will be his undoing, plus we have the EU referendum in the meantime.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2015
    Paul Ryan, the guy who is not even running will be the GOP nominee?
    There is a reason why I boycott Keiran Pedley's articles.

    P.S.
    The right will scream from Osborne's mass tax rises and spending hikes, however everyone else will be satisfied from this very Labour budget.
    Basically the reasoning is that the fear of Corbyn will keep Tories dissatisfied with the government in the fold, even if the government follows most of Corbyn's policies.

    Goodnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2015
    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    I wonder when the squealing starts again in 2-3 years what he will do, especially as we all know what his ambition is.
  • And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

    Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

    The stamp duty change doesn't apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland, I understand.

    Good rental returns in Northern Ireland...
    You can get your walls painted for free too.
    LOL
  • Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    Balls said there was a triple dip in 2011.
  • Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    Lets just ensure all this goes through on a money bill so the Lords can go suck one please.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2015
    Ladbrokes put UKIP within a 4% swing of winning the Oldham by-election:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/669476312562704384
  • Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    Lets just ensure all this goes through on a money bill so the Lords can go suck one please.
    Everything's going to be a money bill from now on, even the boundary changes/reduction to 600 seats bill is going to be a Finance Bill
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
    Where can that be found?
    He was tweeting at a Labour MP.
    Sorry ....Where on Twitter I meant. Twitter address or whatever it's called?
  • RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    I think events will be his undoing, plus we have the EU referendum in the meantime.
    I still think the Greeks could lead to a tragedy for George.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2015
    Trump ahead in almost every poll on this page, whether national or state:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Speedy said:

    Paul Ryan, the guy who is not even running will be the GOP nominee?
    There is a reason why I boycott Keiran Pedley's articles.

    P.S.
    The right will scream from Osborne's mass tax rises and spending hikes, however everyone else will be satisfied from this very Labour budget.
    Basically the reasoning is that the fear of Corbyn will keep Tories dissatisfied with the government in the fold, even if the government follows most of Corbyn's policies.

    Goodnight.

    Satisfied up until the overdue recession hits.

    Slightly off topic: The FTSE 100 has gone absolutely nowhere in what seems like forever.
  • Danny565 said:

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.
    I think it is as a part of a package of tax allowance changes etc.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

    Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway
    Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.
    I think events will be his undoing, plus we have the EU referendum in the meantime.
    I wonder if Cammo will do a Blair. Be lucky and then just at the point the brown stuff hits the proverbial rotational machinery hand over to a successor and walk away.

    Love him / hate him that's the one thing Blair got to a tee. The timing was to perfection , It was literally a week later and PM Brown was in the deep Doo Doo and stayed there until he was dragged by the feet , nails in the Tarmac , along Downing St.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    I wonder when the squealing starts again in 2-3 years what he will do, especially as we all know what his ambition is.

    People who are on tax credits will have transitional arrangements and will not lose out. New claimants who start on Universal Credit will have a more austere regime.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited November 2015
    If Labour had a half decent leader and shadow chancellor, they could have had an excellent day today and looked forward to opinion poll leads in the near future. But they're led by complete pricks.

    Seriously how did the Labour party end up being led by apologists for the IRA, Jihadi John and Mao quoters?
  • perdix said:

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    I wonder when the squealing starts again in 2-3 years what he will do, especially as we all know what his ambition is.

    People who are on tax credits will have transitional arrangements and will not lose out. New claimants who start on Universal Credit will have a more austere regime.

    The way the media have gone on tax credits, they only need to find a few losers and the squealing will cause Osborne onto the defensive.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.
    I think it is as a part of a package of tax allowance changes etc.
    But most people who are eligible for tax credits already earn so little that they are not paying tax anyway.

    That's the core of the problem for the Tories here: because of the nature of the economy these days, because for many people the only work available is poorly-paid/insecure/erratic hours, there are a lot of workers out there who simply can't make ends meet without a top-up. That's the inevitable consequence of the non-industrial, all-private-sector economy which the Tories have created. I don't actually think it's that Osborne, Cameron et al are "cruel", I think they are genuinely (but staggeringly) unaware of the realities of household economics for many people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited November 2015
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
  • If Labour had a half decent leader and shadow chancellor, they could have had an excellent day today and looked forward to opinion poll leads in the near future. But they're led by complete pricks.
    ...

    True. We have a Chancellor completely abandoning the key part of his plan within a few months and getting away with it. Amazing stuff.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Seems like a good statement.
    Absolutely nobody seems to like it.

  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
    Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

    No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

    When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?
  • Burp....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    philiph said:

    Seems like a good statement.
    Absolutely nobody seems to like it.

    Let's all just remember the July Budget was considered a roaring success for about 24 hours, before the IFS came along and pointed out that Osborne's spin was laughably misleading.
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
    Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
    I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.

    To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.

    (I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
  • If there were a recession, 2020 would be like 1992 on steroids.
  • surbiton said:

    The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

    No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

    When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?

    Hello lady c!!!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    I wonder when the squealing starts again in 2-3 years what he will do, especially as we all know what his ambition is.

    It only affects new claims.

    And how many tax credit claimants are Tory voters?

    85% of the electorate don't get Tax credits. It's a very sly cut. Almost as though the tax credits thing was a diversionary tactic.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So the sacrificial front bencher sent onto Newsnight to try and defend the fuckwits leading the Labour party immediately disowns the spin that the Little Red Book was a team decision

    @paulwaugh: Seema Malhotra on McDonnell Mao's red book...telling initial hesitation, then 'he made his own decisions on this..' #newsnight
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
    When did Brown cut local council budgets by 20% with the knock-on effects that has on the police and health services, and make £12bn of cuts to housing benefit for low-paid workers??

    I don't think even the most ardent Corbynista would accuse Brown of being that much of a "Red Tory".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Danny565 said:

    Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

    If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.
    But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.
    Assuming static working patterns. All of these models assume zero behavioural change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Interview with Justin Trudeau by Evan Davis on Newsnight now as he visits London
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
    You sound like Mark Reckless

    http://www.ukip.org/a_blairite_budget_from_a_spend_and_borrow_government
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    I can only equate it to being drunk and vomiting over your mother-in-law. A terrible day for Labour . It wasn't the little red book but watching the once powerful Labour Party reduced to a laughing stock.

    I don't know where they go from here but watching brave Labour spokespeople pretending there's nothing to see is beyond sad

  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
    Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
    I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.

    To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.

    (I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)

    If the Red team can have Margaret Hodge in charge of children, they'll not bat an eyelid if the Blues chose a posthumous King Herod.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
    You sound like Mark Reckless

    http://www.ukip.org/a_blairite_budget_from_a_spend_and_borrow_government
    TPD ex MP?
  • RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
    You sound like Mark Reckless

    http://www.ukip.org/a_blairite_budget_from_a_spend_and_borrow_government
    TPD ex MP?
    That's the one.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    surbiton said:

    The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

    No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

    When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?

    Same time as the 'independent' Bank of England - where the Governor is appointed by who? Who sets their inflation target/remit?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

    No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

    When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?

    Same time as the 'independent' Bank of England - where the Governor is appointed by who?
    Oh yes ! That man who said interest rates would go up when the Unemployment Rate hit 7%. I am still waiting ! Another Tory .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Difference between the two men:
    McDonnell has read Chairman Mao's 'Little Red Book'.
    Osborne has read Sun Tzu's 'Art of War'.
    #Newsnight
  • Ouch.

    He has a point though...
  • Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

    It was a cultural revelation.
    Has Tim tweeted yet?
    He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
    Where can that be found?
    He was tweeting at a Labour MP.
    Sorry ....Where on Twitter I meant. Twitter address or whatever it's called?
    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I stumbled on to the real reason why Osborne committed the u-turn:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qng2o5724u/InternalResults_151124_SpendingReview_Website.pdf

    It took 5&1/2 years, but finally the Tories are more to blame than Labour on the cuts.
  • Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
    It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter
    When did Brown cut local council budgets by 20% with the knock-on effects that has on the police and health services, and make £12bn of cuts to housing benefit for low-paid workers??

    I don't think even the most ardent Corbynista would accuse Brown of being that much of a "Red Tory".
    No more boom and bust and relying on that...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    RobD said:

    The Mail aren't happpy

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

    Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
    Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

    If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
    Sod Osborne. UKplc is fecked if that happens. And I would put it slightly odds on. This is really no time to be throwing money about.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    surbiton said:

    Oh yes ! That man who said interest rates would go up when the Unemployment Rate hit 7%. I am still waiting ! Another Tory .

    Indeed.

    Osborne's independent OBR and the Welfare Cap are just like Brown's Golden Rules and 'Independent' Bank of England..... they are all bollocks.

    Didn't the EU's Maastricht Treaty have some similar nonsense?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Speedy said:

    I stumbled on to the real reason why Osborne committed the u-turn:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qng2o5724u/InternalResults_151124_SpendingReview_Website.pdf

    It took 5&1/2 years, but finally the Tories are more to blame than Labour on the cuts.

    Margin of error ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    If there were a recession, 2020 would be like 1992 on steroids.

    Manufacturing is in recession right now. And this quarter is going to be worse. That will make it 4 negative quarters in a row.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Brilliant. All future Tory broadcasts will contain genuine footage of John McDonnell holding the Little Red Book saying "Let's quote Mao"

    — Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) November 25, 2015

    Could quoting Mao at the autumn statement conceivably backfire no I think it's fine lads no downside here let's do it

    — Archie Bland (@archiebland) November 25, 2015
  • surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

    No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

    When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?

    Same time as the 'independent' Bank of England - where the Governor is appointed by who?
    Oh yes ! That man who said interest rates would go up when the Unemployment Rate hit 7%. I am still waiting ! Another Tory .
    You are just another incoherent leftie.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: .@tnewtondunn : today will be remembered for one reason - and it'll be John McDonnell's little red book

    @STJamesl: McDonnells little red book will fetch six figures at a Tory party fundraiser, labour MPs predict
This discussion has been closed.