Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
But surely they won't be his opponents (assuming for the moment it is Osborne who will be leader in 2020)? If, as predicted, they are terrible for Labour prospects irrefutable electoral evidence to that effect will emerge long before then and resistance will become strong enough to displace the pair of them.
So then it becomes a question of if they have done too much damage to the Labour image for his prospects to be reduced, or if Osborne's financial chicanery will collapse under the weight of circumstance to the degree that Labour are once again credible.
Now, that seems obvious that the Labour due would do more harm than Osborne being undermined by his own failings, but there are still millions of people who say they will vote Labour, and even if not all of them will and it wouldn't be enough, that's still a lot more than it seems should say that, given some of the things the pair come out with, so I cannot entirely discount the possibility that as quickly as they have descended into the current mess, a new, even bland leader and Osborne collapsing could see them ascend back equally quickly.
Likely? Probably not. But even though I should know not to trust my gut, it just seems...wrong that things could possibly go so well for the Tories that nothing that happens to them could prevent them from winning.
He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
Where can that be found?
He was tweeting at a Labour MP.
Sorry ....Where on Twitter I meant. Twitter address or whatever it's called?
He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.
Where can that be found?
He was tweeting at a Labour MP.
Sorry ....Where on Twitter I meant. Twitter address or whatever it's called?
Very interesting Greenberg tipping the new Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, as an outside bet to be nominee at a brokered convention, though I think he will stick with being third line of succession to the presidency and running Congress
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
But surely they won't be his opponents (assuming for the moment it is Osborne who will be leader in 2020)? If, as predicted, they are terrible for Labour prospects irrefutable electoral evidence to that effect will emerge long before then and resistance will become strong enough to displace the pair of them.
So then it becomes a question of if they have done too much damage to the Labour image for his prospects to be reduced, or if Osborne's financial chicanery will collapse under the weight of circumstance to the degree that Labour are once again credible.
Now, that seems obvious that the Labour due would do more harm than Osborne being undermined by his own failings, but there are still millions of people who say they will vote Labour, and even if not all of them will and it wouldn't be enough, that's still a lot more than it seems should say that, given some of the things the pair come out with, so I cannot entirely discount the possibility that as quickly as they have descended into the current mess, a new, even bland leader and Osborne collapsing could see them ascend back equally quickly.
Likely? Probably not. But even though I should know not to trust my gut, it just seems...wrong that things could possibly go so well for the Tories that nothing that happens to them could prevent them from winning.
If Corbyn is deposed then the Tories will just repeat that Labour are a heartbeat away from another hard left takeover.
If Labour had a half decent leader and shadow chancellor, they could have had an excellent day today and looked forward to opinion poll leads in the near future. But they're led by complete pricks.
Seriously how did the Labour party end up being led by apologists for the IRA, Jihadi John and Mao quoters?
Don't forget the pricks that voted for them. I believe they gave the Chuckle Brothers a massive mandate to be pricks.
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.
His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...
Although the Daily Mail seems to think it is the end of buy-to-let and second homes. Who knew that the buy to let business model was entirely populated by people who couldn't figure out to offer 97% of the asking price....
Mr Mark thank you for a tiny breath of sanity. The entire political comentariat is populated by hysterical incompetents. And this is before you get to the labour front bench. The level of comments on here as an example (with your exception as illustrated here) are laughably off beam and frankly quite pathetic.
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.
No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.
When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?
Mainly an increase in tax receipts and smaller debt interest payments. Simples really.
Smaller debt interest payments compared to what was calculated in June - 5 months ago, you simpleton !
Interest rates have not changed and borrowing this year will be higher by £4bn than was announced in June.
Growth rates remain unchanged.
You are gullible !
Interest rates aren't the same as bond yields.
Have bond yields dropped since June ? Also that only applies to new debt. Governments pay existing debt on the coupon rate, the yield , of course, based on what price it was sold. However, once sold, that rate will remain fixed for the government.
The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.
No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.
When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?
Mainly an increase in tax receipts and smaller debt interest payments. Simples really.
Smaller debt interest payments compared to what was calculated in June - 5 months ago, you simpleton !
Interest rates have not changed and borrowing this year will be higher by £4bn than was announced in June.
Growth rates remain unchanged.
You are gullible !
Interest rates aren't the same as bond yields.
Have bond yields dropped since June ? Also that only applies to new debt. Governments pay existing debt on the coupon rate, the yield , of course, based on what price it was sold. However, once sold, that rate will remain fixed for the government.
Bonds are maturing all the time, they aren't simply selling new bonds to pay for the deficit, so the bond rate is crucial to estimate what the level of debt interest would be. This probably accounts for the drop in debt interest payments perdix mentioned.
A century ago yesterday Albert Einstein set out a general theory of relativity that identified parts of the universe where space and time have become so distorted that all light has been swallowed up. This is what it must feel like to be a moderate Labour MP.
I can only equate it to being drunk and vomiting over your mother-in-law. A terrible day for Labour . It wasn't the little red book but watching the once powerful Labour Party reduced to a laughing stock.
I don't know where they go from here but watching brave Labour spokespeople pretending there's nothing to see is beyond sad
As I observed earlier, these are the pricks (courtesy TSE) who voted for the Chuckle Brothers and who now sustain them. For "brave" read "fucking idiotic".
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
You are even more incoherent than I thought. Carney is managing the economy stupid. He is taking note of what is actually happening in the real world . You meanwhile do not even know what planet you are living on.
Please keep it up. The comments I read on here are delighting me. Far too many people have learned nothing and are repeating the same gibberish from 5 years ago. And this on a betting site where you all pretend to be better at finding 'value'.
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
But surely they won't be his opponents (assuming for the moment it is Osborne who will be leader in 2020)? If, as predicted, they are terrible for Labour prospects irrefutable electoral evidence to that effect will emerge long before then and resistance will become strong enough to displace the pair of them.
So then it becomes a question of if they have done too much damage to the Labour image for his prospects to be reduced, or if Osborne's financial chicanery will collapse under the weight of circumstance to the degree that Labour are once again credible.
Now, that seems obvious that the Labour due would do more harm than Osborne being undermined by his own failings, but there are still millions of people who say they will vote Labour, and even if not all of them will and it wouldn't be enough, that's still a lot more than it seems should say that, given some of the things the pair come out with, so I cannot entirely discount the possibility that as quickly as they have descended into the current mess, a new, even bland leader and Osborne collapsing could see them ascend back equally quickly.
Likely? Probably not. But even though I should know not to trust my gut, it just seems...wrong that things could possibly go so well for the Tories that nothing that happens to them could prevent them from winning.
How do you post a "whistle" whilst referencing the time of day?
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
But surely they won't be his opponents (assuming for the moment it is Osborne who will be leader in 2020)? If, as predicted, they are terrible for Labour prospects irrefutable electoral evidence to that effect will emerge long before then and resistance will become strong enough to displace the pair of them.
So then it becomes a question of if they have done too much damage to the Labour image for his prospects to be reduced, or if Osborne's financial chicanery will collapse under the weight of circumstance to the degree that Labour are once again credible.
Now, that seems obvious that the Labour due would do more harm than Osborne being undermined by his own failings, but there are still millions of people who say they will vote Labour, and even if not all of them will and it wouldn't be enough, that's still a lot more than it seems should say that, given some of the things the pair come out with, so I cannot entirely discount the possibility that as quickly as they have descended into the current mess, a new, even bland leader and Osborne collapsing could see them ascend back equally quickly.
Likely? Probably not. But even though I should know not to trust my gut, it just seems...wrong that things could possibly go so well for the Tories that nothing that happens to them could prevent them from winning.
How do you post a "whistle" whilst referencing the time of day?
Forgive me, but I have no idea what your question means.
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
A century ago yesterday Albert Einstein set out a general theory of relativity that identified parts of the universe where space and time have become so distorted that all light has been swallowed up. This is what it must feel like to be a moderate Labour MP.
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I've never seen you say "Yes Night"
I may or may not have said "Yes, Minister" on some occasions
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I've never seen you say "Yes Night"
I may or may not have said "Yes, Minister" on some occasions
Sir Humphrey would have called that very courageous and brave
By the way - Happy Thanksgiving, safe travels and Merry Christmas!
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I've never seen you say "Yes Night"
I may or may not have said "Yes, Minister" on some occasions
Sir Humphrey would have called that very courageous and brave
Much more eloquent than "rue the day", don't you agree?
I'd understand why they do it though... helps to usher people on without having to say anything to interrupt conversations etc. The image in the link you posted is nothing on what Keating did, he had his entire arm around HM!
Indeed, though Keating is of course an ardent Republican
Trying to hug her to death?
A cunning plan, night
Night
He never says "Good" night, does he?
I've definitely said "Good for Yes" on numerous occasions. LOL
I've never seen you say "Yes Night"
I may or may not have said "Yes, Minister" on some occasions
Sir Humphrey would have called that very courageous and brave
Much more eloquent than "rue the day", don't you agree?
George Osborne has shown he is an artful chancellor of the exchequer and, so far, a lucky one. A marked improvement in forecast tax revenue, together with an inept Opposition that considers it clever to quote Chairman Mao, allowed him to make tactical retreats in his Autumn Statement, while cleverly masking the size of other more controversial moves.
Let there be no doubt: Mr Osborne’s strategic direction remains unchanged. He wants to continue to shrink the size of government. His plans will leave the state to focus ever more on health and welfare. The first goal is defensible; the second carries risks.
The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.
No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.
When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?
Same time as the 'independent' Bank of England - where the Governor is appointed by who?
Oh yes ! That man who said interest rates would go up when the Unemployment Rate hit 7%. I am still waiting ! Another Tory .
No he did not!
Carney gave forward guidance that interest rates would not be expected to go up at least until the unemployment rate reached 7% at which point it will be reviewed.
The Tory Jobs Miracle (TM) made the unemployment rate come down much faster than expected despite external shocks and problems so the situation was reviewed. And quite rightly given that we currently have very either no inflation or very mild deflation (cf. the global situation) the decision was made not to raise interest rates yet - as doing so would make deflation worse.
Suggesting you won't do something before at least something else happens makes that something else what economists call a "Necessary but not sufficient condition". For you to convert it into anything else like saying "would go up" is either complete ignorance on your part or deception. I'm not sure which.
This isn't really about politics any more, it's about a basic failure on your part to read and comprehend. Your first para here isn't even English as far as I can make out.
READ the source that Alistair cited and you might understand. My list of objections do not refer to any internet outfit, it refers to the 'Monitoring group' known as 'The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights' (it might sound a bit more credible if someone told him what an observatory actually is). This monitoring group IS an insurgent propaganda operation. It's not pretending to be otherwise. Furthermore it does not even endeavour to list sources for its claims on casualty numbers. It is this organisation that I claim is not a professional outfit. It is not in any way a credible or reliable source of casualty numbers, let alone trying to work out percentages. You would surely agree?
As for the rest of it, that's precisely what I DON'T do. I don't judge a book by it's cover - I note it for sure, but as to the rest, I recognise and have said frequently (including in discussions with you) that there is no such thing as an impartial or even a fully trustworthy media source, and you should read them all with full knowledge of their agenda.
I'm sorry I really can't make the distinction any clearer for you.
You start off each of your posts with a little sneery attack. It's not a sign that you think you're on firm ground.
As for the first paragraph of my post: it's perfectly understandable.
Please read my objections to your post. You have created a series of false distinctions that make you think you can accept or reject information. On the face of it they sound good. Sadly, they are also utterly arbitrary, and it's clear you don't stick to them yourself. In fact, taken to extremes they're contradictory.
And you just use them to confirm 'facts' which match your world view, and reject those that do not.
As for your main claim, which is an attack on the SOHR. You claim: "This monitoring group IS an insurgent propaganda operation." That's quite a claim, and I hope you have full sources for that which match your criteria. So please post them, so we can all see how well your links 'proving' that assertion follow what you claim you do. (BTW, I like the way you put 'IS' in capitals, to associate it with IS).
Remember, according to you they must not be: -totally and self-confessedly partial and one sided -not on the ground -not a professional outfit -not cross-checked
The one thing Labour have is the truth that come 2020 the Tories will not be able to play any sort of deficit card.
Not so sure about that. They could say they were shackled by the LibDems for 5 years. They were then thwarted by the Lords etc etc. Then they point out who originally caused such a massive problem. Whether it's true or not really dosent matter, it's what the electorate believes in the end. The antics of the opposition front bench may well make it much easier for the Tories to sell the line than it would normally have been. TBH I suspect something will go tits up long before 2020 due to "events" anyway so it may not even come into play anyway as you say
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
If turnout is atrocious enough but the tories somehow manage to get most of their voters out, they could just snatch it. Remember, 8000 people voted tory in OW&R in May despite it being a very safe labour seat AND UKIP being perceived as the challenger.
A tory win isn't likely, but isn't impossible either.
Not that they'd have a cats chance in hell of holding it in 2020!
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
Morning. Are you abroad or just insomniac today?
If the turnout goes as low as 20% there might be some value in the Tories to come at least second - Osborne handing out sweets and Labour emulating Mao will be the news for the next few days, and the Tory demographic are those who will turn out on a cold and wet December day.
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
If turnout is atrocious enough but the tories somehow manage to get most of their voters out, they could just snatch it. Remember, 8000 people voted tory in OW&R in May despite it being a very safe labour seat AND UKIP being perceived as the challenger.
A tory win isn't likely, but isn't impossible either.
Not that they'd have a cats chance in hell of holding it in 2020!
Agree with that. But I just think it'll be an election of two opposing forces: Labourites enthused by Corbyn enough to go to the polls, and UKIP voters enraged by immigration. I'm not sure the Conservatives will be able to get traction between those two forces.
It would be interesting to know if the 'Northern Powerhouse' meme has cut through in that part of the north. It might be worth a few votes.
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
Morning. Are you abroad or just insomniac today?
If the turnout goes as low as 20% there might be some value in the Tories to come at least second - Osborne handing out sweets and Labour emulating Mao will be the news for the next few days, and the Tory demographic are those who will turn out on a cold and wet December day.
No, I had to get up as my son woke up, and if I wake after four in the morning I find it the devil's work to get back to sleep. So after I settled him, it was a choice of either waking Mrs J up as I tried to get back to sleep, the spare bed, or try to do a little work (*). Oh, and read PB.
(1) "The seizure of power by armed force, the settlement of the issue by war, is the central task and the highest form of revolution."
(2) "The only way to settle questions of an ideological nature or controversial issues among the people is by the democratic method, the method of discussion, criticism, persuasion and education, and not by the method of coercion or repression."
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
Morning. Are you abroad or just insomniac today?
If the turnout goes as low as 20% there might be some value in the Tories to come at least second - Osborne handing out sweets and Labour emulating Mao will be the news for the next few days, and the Tory demographic are those who will turn out on a cold and wet December day.
No, I had to get up as my son woke up, and if I wake after four in the morning I find it the devil's work to get back to sleep. So after I settled him, it was a choice of either waking Mrs J up as I tried to get back to sleep, the spare bed, or try to do a little work (*). Oh, and read PB.
(*) Basically playing with compilers.
Ouch! Oh well, as you say better to take advantage of a couple of quiet hours to get stuff done. Speaking of which, work to be done here too!
Someone posted the other day that the ED stone would no longer get into the top ten gaffes, and you can see why. I watched McDonnell throw the red book over to George, and I thought WTF WTF WTF...
Its almost impossible to see how much more inept the Labour opposition gaffes can get.. Where will it all end..
Labour 9,000 UKIP 6,000 Conservative 3,000 Lib Dem 1,000 Green 500 OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
It would be nice to have a little competition on this.
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 2000 Lib Dem 900 Others 621
Good morning fellow insomniacs!
isam was offerring 7/2 on Tories outpolling UKIP. I am on for a tenner (though also on UKIP at 8/1 with shadsy).
The by election is a difficult one to call. A PB NoJam contest may be amusing.
Perhaps:
Labour 9000 UKIP 5000 Conservative 3500 LibDem 1750 Others 750
No, I had to get up as my son woke up, and if I wake after four in the morning I find it the devil's work to get back to sleep. So after I settled him, it was a choice of either waking Mrs J up as I tried to get back to sleep, the spare bed, or try to do a little work (*). Oh, and read PB.
(*) Basically playing with compilers.
Ouch! Oh well, as you say better to take advantage of a couple of quiet hours to get stuff done. Speaking of which, work to be done here too!
On the other hand, when I go to bed I can close my eyes and just go to sleep. Hence if it's my turn to look after him at night, I go to bed early and wake early.
This has proved really useful when backpacking: however uncomfortable I might be, I can often just close my eyes and sleep. Then, when I wake up early listen to the radio and pack up my tent to be on the trail for first light.
The early mornings are when I do most of my reading and trying to keep up with what's happening in the industry. Oh, and playing Elite.
Someone posted the other day that the ED stone would no longer get into the top ten gaffes, and you can see why. I watched McDonnell throw the red book over to George, and I thought WTF WTF WTF...
Its almost impossible to see how much more inept the Labour opposition gaffes can get.. Where will it all end..
BBC seemed to quite like the exchange. Just saying.
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.
To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.
(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
What do you think of the new fiscally wet, socially liberal, not obsessed with the Gays or Europe Tory Party?
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.
To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.
(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
What do you think of the new fiscally wet, socially liberal, not obsessed with the Gays or Europe Tory Party?
You mean "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party", of course not to be confused with the "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party (Monarchist)"
As the Russians are operating alongside the Iraqi and Syrian governments they have superior intelligence on targets so logically they would likely be inflicting less civilian casualties due to mistakes in targeting.
Because if there is one thing the Russians are known for it is taking care not to kill civilians in a war zone.
LOL - they took a lot of care in Chechnya - or was that a lot of care to flatten it?
They seem to be dropping iron bombs too rather than PGM's?
Ypu, here's a video of a Russian Helicopter(!) dropping unguided bombs.
I've just gone from watching John McDonnell on the BBC News to the Teletubbies. It showed several things: Po has a better sense of the economy than McDonnnell, and the Teletubbies live in a more realistic world than the one that exists in his mind.
Time for new campaigns: Teletubbies for the shadow cabinet! McDonnell to have a new comedy show on CBeebies!
Mr. P, that's indicative of McDonnell's stupidity.
Incidentally, I can recommend Wild Swans by Jung Chang to anyone who hasn't read it yet. Not my standard fare by any stretch (covers the lives of three women in the same family during the rise of Communism), but it's a great read.
Labour's front-bench score day-day this week = 0/3, one more test to go.
Strategic Defence Review response - x Trident - x Autumn statement - x Syria statement - to go
@BBCLouise: John McDonnell denies he's having a bad week - says "I think it's going alright" says has got issues on the agenda @BBCr4today
@kevverage: Jeremy Corbyn - a man with such poor political judgement that he appoints a shadow chancellor with McDonnell's political judgement
@janemerrick23: Just think if Jeremy Corbyn had appointed the woman better qualified for the job of shadow chancellor, Angela Eagle, rather than his mate
Mr. Scrapheap: Strategic Defence Review response - quotes about abolishing the army (in August of this year) and disbanding MI5 (April) sunk Corbyn/McDonnell Trident - Corbyn lost this before it started Autumn statement - McDonnell quoted from Mao [who is next? Stalin?] Syria statement - if the top 2 can avoid quoting Stalin, they may just scrape a draw.
More seriously, the Russian plane going down will give an easy line for Labour. By not saying something utterly demented, they can improve dramatically.
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.
To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.
(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
What do you think of the new fiscally wet, socially liberal, not obsessed with the Gays or Europe Tory Party?
You mean "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party", of course not to be confused with the "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party (Monarchist)"
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.
To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.
(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
What do you think of the new fiscally wet, socially liberal, not obsessed with the Gays or Europe Tory Party?
You mean "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party", of course not to be confused with the "Dry but not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe New Tory Party (Monarchist)"
I've just gone from watching John McDonnell on the BBC News to the Teletubbies. It showed several things: Po has a better sense of the economy than McDonnnell, and the Teletubbies live in a more realistic world than the one that exists in his mind.
Time for new campaigns: Teletubbies for the shadow cabinet! McDonnell to have a new comedy show on CBeebies!
Its been a while since I had that particular delight but am I not right in recalling that the Teletubbies don't really speak? I mean in McDonnell's case one can immediately see the attraction of that but it is not really opposition is it? Mind you....
Mr. P, that's indicative of McDonnell's stupidity.
Incidentally, I can recommend Wild Swans by Jung Chang to anyone who hasn't read it yet. Not my standard fare by any stretch (covers the lives of three women in the same family during the rise of Communism), but it's a great read.
Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.
Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.
If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.
Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.
If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.
Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.
I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.
To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.
(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)
What do you think of the new fiscally wet, socially liberal, not obsessed with the Gays or Europe Tory Party?
Osborne is still drier than Thatcher, see the comment from RBS economics up thread.
@BBCNormanS: Spending Review not the end of the austerity - Paul Johnson @TheIFS
Comments
So then it becomes a question of if they have done too much damage to the Labour image for his prospects to be reduced, or if Osborne's financial chicanery will collapse under the weight of circumstance to the degree that Labour are once again credible.
Now, that seems obvious that the Labour due would do more harm than Osborne being undermined by his own failings, but there are still millions of people who say they will vote Labour, and even if not all of them will and it wouldn't be enough, that's still a lot more than it seems should say that, given some of the things the pair come out with, so I cannot entirely discount the possibility that as quickly as they have descended into the current mess, a new, even bland leader and Osborne collapsing could see them ascend back equally quickly.
Likely? Probably not. But even though I should know not to trust my gut, it just seems...wrong that things could possibly go so well for the Tories that nothing that happens to them could prevent them from winning.
@PickardJE Spending a day clarifying that the police could shoot a suicide bomber topped by having to clarify you oppose 45million deaths
So much for the ‘decision by committee’ spin. – Osbo was right, it was his on signed copy.
Interest rates have not changed and borrowing this year will be higher by £4bn than was announced in June.
Growth rates remain unchanged.
You are gullible !
http://www.pertemps.co.uk/en/about-us/news/bank-of-england-governor-mark-carney-interest-rates-held-until-unemployment-falls
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334114/The-Prime-Minister-Cameron-look-old-patronising-handshake-pair-met-outside-Number-Ten.html
Time for bed. Boing..
The level of comments on here as an example (with your exception as illustrated here) are laughably off beam and frankly quite pathetic.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/royal-tour-prince-charles-awkward-encounter-down-under/story-fni0cx12-1227606310964
https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/669651822202650626
Please keep it up. The comments I read on here are delighting me. Far too many people have learned nothing and are repeating the same gibberish from 5 years ago. And this on a betting site where you all pretend to be better at finding 'value'.
Obama has taken to pardoning 2 turkeys. Last year it was Macaroni and Cheese. This year it's Honest and Abe.
He hasn't lost his charm has he :-)
(eat your heart out, Sean T!
Black Hole Friday?
By the way - Happy Thanksgiving, safe travels and Merry Christmas!
George Osborne has shown he is an artful chancellor of the exchequer and, so far, a lucky one. A marked improvement in forecast tax revenue, together with an inept Opposition that considers it clever to quote Chairman Mao, allowed him to make tactical retreats in his Autumn Statement, while cleverly masking the size of other more controversial moves.
Let there be no doubt: Mr Osborne’s strategic direction remains unchanged. He wants to continue to shrink the size of government. His plans will leave the state to focus ever more on health and welfare. The first goal is defensible; the second carries risks.
If Cameron had pulled that stunt it would be a joke. When Labour Labour lefties do it, it just reinforces how left they are.
Carney gave forward guidance that interest rates would not be expected to go up at least until the unemployment rate reached 7% at which point it will be reviewed.
The Tory Jobs Miracle (TM) made the unemployment rate come down much faster than expected despite external shocks and problems so the situation was reviewed. And quite rightly given that we currently have very either no inflation or very mild deflation (cf. the global situation) the decision was made not to raise interest rates yet - as doing so would make deflation worse.
Suggesting you won't do something before at least something else happens makes that something else what economists call a "Necessary but not sufficient condition". For you to convert it into anything else like saying "would go up" is either complete ignorance on your part or deception. I'm not sure which.
I predict
Labour 9,000
UKIP 6,000
Conservative 3,000
Lib Dem 1,000
Green 500
OMRLP 300
turnout 27%
As for the first paragraph of my post: it's perfectly understandable.
Please read my objections to your post. You have created a series of false distinctions that make you think you can accept or reject information. On the face of it they sound good. Sadly, they are also utterly arbitrary, and it's clear you don't stick to them yourself. In fact, taken to extremes they're contradictory.
And you just use them to confirm 'facts' which match your world view, and reject those that do not.
As for your main claim, which is an attack on the SOHR. You claim: "This monitoring group IS an insurgent propaganda operation." That's quite a claim, and I hope you have full sources for that which match your criteria. So please post them, so we can all see how well your links 'proving' that assertion follow what you claim you do. (BTW, I like the way you put 'IS' in capitals, to associate it with IS).
Remember, according to you they must not be:
-totally and self-confessedly partial and one sided
-not on the ground
-not a professional outfit
-not cross-checked
Good luck.
The antics of the opposition front bench may well make it much easier for the Tories to sell the line than it would normally have been. TBH I suspect something will go tits up long before 2020 due to "events" anyway so it may not even come into play anyway as you say
I think it'll be like Manchester Central back in 2012, with a very low turnout. I'll say 20% (just so Lucy Powell can still have the recent record for low turnouts). I just cannot see people being enthused enough by this election, especially at this time of year. There's not enough push or pull factors to send them to their local polling station.
Labour 6000
UKIP 5000
Conservative 2000
Lib Dem 900
Others 621
A tory win isn't likely, but isn't impossible either.
Not that they'd have a cats chance in hell of holding it in 2020!
If the turnout goes as low as 20% there might be some value in the Tories to come at least second - Osborne handing out sweets and Labour emulating Mao will be the news for the next few days, and the Tory demographic are those who will turn out on a cold and wet December day.
Edit: @Pong - Snap!
It would be interesting to know if the 'Northern Powerhouse' meme has cut through in that part of the north. It might be worth a few votes.
(*) Basically playing with compilers.
https://twitter.com/_itssep_/status/669559080550166529
(1) "The seizure of power by armed force, the settlement of the issue by war, is the central task and the highest form of revolution."
(2) "The only way to settle questions of an ideological nature or controversial issues among the people is by the democratic method, the method of discussion, criticism, persuasion and education, and not by the method of coercion or repression."
Its almost impossible to see how much more inept the Labour opposition gaffes can get.. Where will it all end..
isam was offerring 7/2 on Tories outpolling UKIP. I am on for a tenner (though also on UKIP at 8/1 with shadsy).
The by election is a difficult one to call. A PB NoJam contest may be amusing.
Perhaps:
Labour 9000
UKIP 5000
Conservative 3500
LibDem 1750
Others 750
This has proved really useful when backpacking: however uncomfortable I might be, I can often just close my eyes and sleep. Then, when I wake up early listen to the radio and pack up my tent to be on the trail for first light.
The early mornings are when I do most of my reading and trying to keep up with what's happening in the industry. Oh, and playing Elite.
@DPJHodges: Woman on Today talking about how she was give Little Red Book in forced labour camp as a child. Flamboyance. Humour.
@DPJHodges: "Not funny for the millions of people who died", she says. Come on. Where's your sense of humour. Stop being so pompous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nj5lqGD8cY
Time for new campaigns:
Teletubbies for the shadow cabinet!
McDonnell to have a new comedy show on CBeebies!
Maybe this is how we should have decided GE2015. Ed "Mauler" Miliband vs Dave "Crusher" Cameron in a fight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYlWiZMhaLE
Brazeau was the considerable favourite according to news articles but Trudeau really knocked him about.
Mr. P, that's indicative of McDonnell's stupidity.
Incidentally, I can recommend Wild Swans by Jung Chang to anyone who hasn't read it yet. Not my standard fare by any stretch (covers the lives of three women in the same family during the rise of Communism), but it's a great read.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/24/early-state_polls_arent_predictive_--_yet__128828.html
Carson is IMO clearly not going to stay the course; Trump however...
Strategic Defence Review response - x
Trident - x
Autumn statement - x
Syria statement - to go
@kevverage: Jeremy Corbyn - a man with such poor political judgement that he appoints a shadow chancellor with McDonnell's political judgement
@janemerrick23: Just think if Jeremy Corbyn had appointed the woman better qualified for the job of shadow chancellor, Angela Eagle, rather than his mate
labour front bench are rebrov and bobby sol.
Strategic Defence Review response - quotes about abolishing the army (in August of this year) and disbanding MI5 (April) sunk Corbyn/McDonnell
Trident - Corbyn lost this before it started
Autumn statement - McDonnell quoted from Mao [who is next? Stalin?]
Syria statement - if the top 2 can avoid quoting Stalin, they may just scrape a draw.
More seriously, the Russian plane going down will give an easy line for Labour. By not saying something utterly demented, they can improve dramatically.
J McDonnell: 'She got the joke.' #r4today
@Claire_Phipps: Maosplaining https://t.co/gDaSU6dFfF
There are different types of courage. Just because someone gets in the ring doesn't mean he'll be brave politically.
@BBCNormanS: Spending Review not the end of the austerity - Paul Johnson @TheIFS