politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: The 2016 White Hous

Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

Mike said this was the best podcast yet, he was right.

Pong said:

If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

It was the 1922 that told Osborne to do something about the tax credit cuts and housing.

The Mail aren't happpy

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

nigel4england said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

It was a cultural revelation.

Has Tim tweeted yet?

He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

That seemed to be the take I heard from the experts on the radio earlier.

FPT:

JosiasJessop said:

I's like to believe that you're such an idiot. But you've sadly provided plenty of evidence otherwise in the past.

You've linked to stories that exhibit exactly the characteristics you mention above, yet oddly because they match your opinions you put them on here.

What is a 'professional outfit' on the Internet? 'Partial and one-sided' is also very much in the eye of the observer, and the test can easily be fooled by a good writer. 'Cross checking' is also difficult on the Internet, where many stories on different sites can all link back to the same single source.

And the source does matter: what do you call a 'proper' source? For instance, a source that is from a small media organisation owned by a friend of Assad's should be treated with a certain amount of criticism if it backs that regime. Yet you failed to mention that.

You just try to use arbitrary distinctions to rubbish sources you dislike, and forget those distinctions when the sources contain information you like.

This isn't really about politics any more, it's about a basic failure on your part to read and comprehend. Your first para here isn't even English as far as I can make out.

READ the source that Alistair cited and you might understand. My list of objections do not refer to any internet outfit, it refers to the 'Monitoring group' known as 'The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights' (it might sound a bit more credible if someone told him what an observatory actually is). This monitoring group IS an insurgent propaganda operation. It's not pretending to be otherwise. Furthermore it does not even endeavour to list sources for its claims on casualty numbers. It is this organisation that I claim is not a professional outfit. It is not in any way a credible or reliable source of casualty numbers, let alone trying to work out percentages. You would surely agree?

As for the rest of it, that's precisely what I DON'T do. I don't judge a book by it's cover - I note it for sure, but as to the rest, I recognise and have said frequently (including in discussions with you) that there is no such thing as an impartial or even a fully trustworthy media source, and you should read them all with full knowledge of their agenda.

I'm sorry I really can't make the distinction any clearer for you.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

I think it is going to go down very badly.

I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.

His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...

Pong said:

If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.

Charles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

And I agree with Mail, which makes me feel bad.

Osborne has ruined my Buy To Let dreams.

I think it is going to go down very badly.

I had dinner tonight with someone who watches the UK residential property market very very closely.

His view is that the government's major objective is to bring down house prices in a controlled way. This stamp duty reform was just part of increasing the pressure - expect to see more like this...

Way too many people are over invested in their property as a source of wealth. Any reduction of house prices, plus the inevitable rise in interest rates (that is going to be a killer for a lot of people), is going to leave a lot of people unhappy at the government (despite arguably being their own fault).

MP_SE said:

Pong said:

If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.

To put things in perspective:

@RBS_Economics

Thatcher left office with spending/GDP 6.4% lower than when she arrived. Osborne will hit 6% in 2015

To say Osborne isn't a Tory, is frankly ludicrous,

H/T Richard Nabavi

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway

Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.

MP_SE said:

Pong said:

If I were a good old fashioned tory right winger, I'd be absolutely fuming with Osborne.

The tories have a majority and no opposition, yet their true blue chancellor comes out with his chequebook.

How long until the 1922 flex their muscles?

The snippets I have seen have angered me so much I cannot bring myself to look at it in any detail. George Osborne is not a Tory.

Get over it. Could be worse for you. Take it from me.

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway

Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.

Are you trying to say Osborne is not omnipotent?

FrancisUrquhart said:

nigel4england said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

It was a cultural revelation.

Has Tim tweeted yet?

He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.

Where can that be found?

Evan Davis on Newsnight pushing another BBC conspiracy theory. Whatever happened to all those conspiracy theories on falls in unemployment?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

You know someone here said that this Autumn Statement was a win for the odler against the younger.


But I do not know anyone who owns a property which is entirely buy-to-let under the age of 40. Whilst such business no doubt exist, it is commerce for the young and an amateur hobby for the middle-aged.

Isn't Stamp Duty payable on the purchase of properties? So anyone old who already has one won't be affected and anyone in future planning on buying one (or another one) will be aware of the taxes up front and need to budget accordingly.

Moses_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

nigel4england said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Mao! Pinch me. This has to be a bad dream.

It was a cultural revelation.

Has Tim tweeted yet?

He is going bonkers...lets just say he isn't a fan of Laurel and Hardy double act e.g. He'll definitely have a copy of Ghaddafi's Green Book to bring in for his next show and tell.

Where can that be found?

He was tweeting at a Labour MP.

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

I wonder when the squealing starts again in 2-3 years what he will do, especially as we all know what his ambition is.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.

Lets just ensure all this goes through on a money bill so the Lords can go suck one please.

https://twitter.com/theredrag/status/669648032992993281

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.

But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway

Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.

I think events will be his undoing, plus we have the EU referendum in the meantime.

I still think the Greeks could lead to a tragedy for George.

Speedy said:

Paul Ryan, the guy who is not even running will be the GOP nominee?
There is a reason why I boycott Keiran Pedley's articles.

P.S.
The right will scream from Osborne's mass tax rises and spending hikes, however everyone else will be satisfied from this very Labour budget.
Basically the reasoning is that the fear of Corbyn will keep Tories dissatisfied with the government in the fold, even if the government follows most of Corbyn's policies.

Goodnight.

Satisfied up until the overdue recession hits.

Slightly off topic: The FTSE 100 has gone absolutely nowhere in what seems like forever.

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Very true, but maybe he is banking on easing up on austerity not causing a recession?

Of course the dreaded events may take it out of his hands anyway

Would mean we've gone more than a decade since our last recession and as you say, it also dependent on events not in Osborne's control.

I think events will be his undoing, plus we have the EU referendum in the meantime.

I wonder if Cammo will do a Blair. Be lucky and then just at the point the brown stuff hits the proverbial rotational machinery hand over to a successor and walk away.

Love him / hate him that's the one thing Blair got to a tee. The timing was to perfection , It was literally a week later and PM Brown was in the deep Doo Doo and stayed there until he was dragged by the feet , nails in the Tarmac , along Downing St.

If Labour had a half decent leader and shadow chancellor, they could have had an excellent day today and looked forward to opinion poll leads in the near future. But they're led by complete pricks.

Seriously how did the Labour party end up being led by apologists for the IRA, Jihadi John and Mao quoters?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.

But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.

I think it is as a part of a package of tax allowance changes etc.

But most people who are eligible for tax credits already earn so little that they are not paying tax anyway.

That's the core of the problem for the Tories here: because of the nature of the economy these days, because for many people the only work available is poorly-paid/insecure/erratic hours, there are a lot of workers out there who simply can't make ends meet without a top-up. That's the inevitable consequence of the non-industrial, all-private-sector economy which the Tories have created. I don't actually think it's that Osborne, Cameron et al are "cruel", I think they are genuinely (but staggeringly) unaware of the realities of household economics for many people.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.

If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and had a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.

Seems like a good statement.
Absolutely nobody seems to like it.

philiph said:

Seems like a good statement.
Absolutely nobody seems to like it.

Let's all just remember the July Budget was considered a roaring success for about 24 hours, before the IFS came along and pointed out that Osborne's spin was laughably misleading.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.

It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter

surbiton said:

The Osborne appointed OBR is coming up with neat political treats for Ozzy.

No change in growth forecasts since June and no change in interest rates. Yet the magic tree produces £25bn.

When can we expect them to be given the knighthoods ?

Hello lady c!!!

So the sacrificial front bencher sent onto Newsnight to try and defend the fuckwits leading the Labour party immediately disowns the spin that the Little Red Book was a team decision

@paulwaugh: Seema Malhotra on McDonnell Mao's red book...telling initial hesitation, then 'he made his own decisions on this..' #newsnight

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just a thought, Osborne has pushed the pain from tax credit cuts now, to cuts in Universal Credit, which people get moved over 2018-2020, isn't that terrible timing?

If I read this Times article correctly, it will happen as the National Living Wage kicks in, so should be a net gain.

But it was calculated that a £12 minimum wage was needed to offset losses from tax credit cuts.

Assuming static working patterns. All of these models assume zero behavioural change.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.

It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter

You sound like Mark Reckless

http://www.ukip.org/a_blairite_budget_from_a_spend_and_borrow_government

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.

If you're opponents are Corbyn and McDonnell you know you can't lose, even if George went round to every marginal voters' house and took a dump in their living rooms, he'd win a majority.

Well he might - but he wouldn't get my vote.

I've spent far too much of the last 48 hours with depressed Labour supporters.

To quote one them, Osborne as PM could announce he had appointed Herod the Great as Minister for Childcare and he'd still get a majority because his opponents are shite.

(I'm so using the Herod the Great line in a future thread)

If the Red team can have Margaret Hodge in charge of children, they'll not bat an eyelid if the Blues chose a posthumous King Herod.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Seems a losing gambit, quite frankly.

It was a brown budget... not impressed but I'm not the target voter

You sound like Mark Reckless

http://www.ukip.org/a_blairite_budget_from_a_spend_and_borrow_government

TPD ex MP?

That's the one.

Ouch.

He has a point though...

I stumbled on to the real reason why Osborne committed the u-turn:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qng2o5724u/InternalResults_151124_SpendingReview_Website.pdf

It took 5&1/2 years, but finally the Tories are more to blame than Labour on the cuts.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Mail aren't happpy

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/669643044950548482

Doesn't that nullify Labour's attack about austerity? I think the Spectator had a chart showing some departments were down 20% between now and 2020.

Kinda. I had drinks with someone who knows about economics. He said from his analysis, Osborne is betting the farm on there being no recession between now and 2020.

If there is a recession then Osborne is fecked.

Sod Osborne. UKplc is fecked if that happens. And I would put it slightly odds on. This is really no time to be throwing money about.

Speedy said:

I stumbled on to the real reason why Osborne committed the u-turn:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qng2o5724u/InternalResults_151124_SpendingReview_Website.pdf

It took 5&1/2 years, but finally the Tories are more to blame than Labour on the cuts.

Margin of error

Brilliant. All future Tory broadcasts will contain genuine footage of John McDonnell holding the Little Red Book saying "Let's quote Mao"

— Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) November 25, 2015

Could quoting Mao at the autumn statement conceivably backfire no I think it's fine lads no downside here let's do it

— Archie Bland (@archiebland) November 25, 2015

@BBCNewsnight: .@tnewtondunn : today will be remembered for one reason - and it'll be John McDonnell's little red book

@STJamesl: McDonnells little red book will fetch six figures at a Tory party fundraiser, labour MPs predict