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SystemSystem Posts: 12,686
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battles between Corbyn and his MPs are not going to go away

Monday evening saw the regular Parliamentary Labour Party meeting in the Commons and by all accounts this was a pretty boisterous affair with the leader being shouted over.

Read the full story here


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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    SaveJez
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Eagles, never attribute to cunning what can be explained by rampant cowardice.

    We'll see how things develop, though.

    The by-election may be more interesting than earlier appeared to be the case.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    It's not so much the PLP and the leader, it's the PLP and the membership which are so much at odds.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Crosby, blimey.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    If that's true and they do manage to lose, can we expect mass resignations then? If so will it be SDP Mk 2?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2015
    FPT;
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's terrific the way the Lords have selflessly made the case for their abolition.

    There is an argument, not one I think I have more than 4% support for but which I can understand, which says that with FPTP there are millions of voters who didn't vote for the government and are effectively without a voice (especially so now, of course, with Jezza).

    Under such circumstances to have a combatative HoL which puts forward an alternative view but without final sanction is not wholly a bad thing.
    There is certainly an argument for that.

    Keep FPTP for the Commons and allow it primacy (i.e. it can always implement things via the Parliament act).

    But introduce PR for the Lords so that UKIP (and others) at least get a voice.
    There's no good reason to elect lords based on geographical constituencies.

    I'd favour STV -with each constituency being a strict age band.

    So every 6th May, only those aged 18, 28, 38, 48, , , vote.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    JC is not the problem. The problem is the people who voted him into the leadership: they despise Middle England (not that I'd ever live there either) and Labour's opponents will bang that drum for two or three Parliaments to come.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,704
    Slackbladder said:

    It's not so much the PLP and the leader, it's the PLP and the membership which are so much at odds.

    Too many “careerist” MP’s?
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Crosby, blimey.

    Yes indeed. Meantime the likes of David Davis, who lord be thnked never made it to be home secretary, witters on in his usual self serving way to try to hinder GCHQ and MI5 as much as possible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Pong, that's a silly system.

    Enormo-haddock Voting (EHV) is the only way to guarantee good governance, with the revising chamber becoming the House of Octo-Lemurs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    edited November 2015
    The interview last night on channel 4 summed up the tragedy-cum-farce that is the modern Labour Party. Well worth a view.

    It is between the Labour shadow defence minister and the man Corbyn put in charge to lead the review in the post Trident policy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClEn9twKyRM&sns=em
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    edited November 2015
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Eagles, it does seem especially bad.

    That said, Miliband lasted five years without challenge. Brown took Labour to 19% in one poll and they couldn't even unite to topple him.

    This may be different. But we'll see.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,446
    @Runnymede, @Morris_Dancer:

    Are there running battles between the Senate and the House of Representatives in Australia? (Which is PR - in effect - for the Upper House). IIRC, the PM has to be from the lower house.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Amusingly from Guido

    A Labour source texts:

    “It’s the worst day since Monday.”

    Now that is what an omnishambles looks like.

    FPT - Someone asked me about Quince (Colchester) - I have not met the man so have no strong opinion either way.

    I met Sir Bob several times and there was no doubt he worked hard for his constituents, the last time I saw him was on election day itself and he was visibly a different man from the other times I saw him, he knew what was coming.

    What I can also say is that the tories (with limited success) are now copying the "get stuck in " approach adopted by our lib dem councillors and both parties are in frequent contact to see what they can do for the people of our area.

    Our Lb Dem activists are a bit miffed by this it seems (well, some of them in any event)

    One Lib Dem in particular is very, very visible and also I have to say very attentive to the people of the area.

    If they chose him as their next candidate for here I would very sorely tempted to vote for him, but to be fair I and my wife were very conflicted about voting for Sir Bob but in the end keeping Labour out was deemed to be the overriding factor for both of us. Under Corbyn that would be true in spades.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,446
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    UKIP will win if Labour loses their Blairite voters to the LibDems, and their patriotic WWC voters to UKIP.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.

    Corbyn it seems to be turning out is just very bad at politics, even his own brand of politics. I would imagine he would want to make as few public statements and appearances as possible - at least until his minders get him to practice a bit more.
    However no matter how dim he is, there can be little doubt surely that those behind him are serious about transmogrifying the Labour Party and of course the PLP. I do not think they care about winning the next election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    I'm optimistic for UKIP. I put some money on them at 8/1 earlier on this week.

    Everything Corbyn has done this week is designed to help UKIP in Oldham
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it does seem especially bad.

    That said, Miliband lasted five years without challenge. Brown took Labour to 19% in one poll and they couldn't even unite to topple him.

    This may be different. But we'll see.

    I was thinking about how long they put up with Brown, but that was only a year or less from the GE.

    As said, 4 and a half years of this? Something has to give.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    There's always optimistic "canvassing" feedback from canvassers. It's one thing activists of all parties have in common.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    I'm optimistic for UKIP. I put some money on them at 8/1 earlier on this week.

    Everything Corbyn has done this week is designed to help UKIP in Oldham
    I hope you're right but the strategy is interesting, there is a fine line between whipping up the WWC and creating resentment in what I understand is a heavily muslim populated area. The word "racist" will be on the lips of every labour campaigner.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    I'm optimistic for UKIP. I put some money on them at 8/1 earlier on this week.

    Everything Corbyn has done this week is designed to help UKIP in Oldham
    Let's not forget that ISIS are doing their bit as well. I for one am not going to fall into their trap.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited November 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The interview last night on channel 4 summed up the tragedy-cum-farce that is the modern Labour Party. Well worth a view.

    It is between the Labour shadow defence minister and the man Corbyn put in charge to lead the review in the post Trident policy.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClEn9twKyRM&sns=em

    Continued on Newsnight - HE STARTED IT MISS!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImQn8UG3JOc

    Got better with Maria Eagle 'being very silly'.......

    And there should 'Absolutely not' be a free vote on Syria......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    There's always optimistic "canvassing" feedback from canvassers. It's one thing activists of all parties have in common.

    Ordinarily I agree, but in the GE Labour campaigners here were very disillusioned. The kippers are overly optimistic as a rule though.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. 1000, Australia isn't the UK. Does Australia have minor parties clamouring to alter the electoral system to their advantage?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    edited November 2015
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    The old 'definition of insanity' line springs to mind.


    Labour are now insane.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    flightpath01 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Crosby, blimey.

    Yes indeed. Meantime the likes of David Davis, who lord be thnked never made it to be home secretary, witters on in his usual self serving way to try to hinder GCHQ and MI5 as much as possible.
    If the government stopped fannying around and gave sweeping powers to the spooks in MI5 and GCHQ, and stopped trying to tack on totalitarian crap about giving a subset to the tax man and local councils it would fly through parliament.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    That really would put the cat amongst the pigeons
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    It shouldn't be. By-elections are quickly forgotten or written off even when they shouldn't be. OW&R will not be a watershed moment for Labour, whatever the result. If UKIP do win, Labour (or Corbynites) will put it down to a racist electorate (see the 2001 result, for example), and UKIP being willing to stir it in the aftermath of Paris. It won't be true but for Corbynites, it will be believable. Resignations, had they happened, would be secondary though you're right that Corbynites would still point the finger.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    I'm beginning to think Corbyn will resign soon, he must realise that he's way out of his depth in so many respects. He must crave the days he could go on protests in relative anonymity.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
    But only 2 months of Jez as leader. This is supposed to be his honeymoon period. Things generally go down hill from this point onwards for the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TSE I feel a thread header coming on.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    JC is not the problem. The problem is the people who voted him into the leadership: they despise Middle England (not that I'd ever live there either) and Labour's opponents will bang that drum for two or three Parliaments to come.

    IA is right. There are three parts to the equation and JC is the symptom of it rather than the problem itself. The issue - and Mike rightly flags up again the question of deselections in this context - is that the membership / Labour electorate is massively out of step with the PLP. However, Mike's right that the problem will not go away until that tension is resolved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
    But only 2 months of Jez as leader. This is supposed to be his honeymoon period. Things generally go down hill from this point onwards for the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    Hes breaking new ground, clearly.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Are there running battles between the Senate and the House of Representatives in Australia? (Which is PR - in effect - for the Upper House). IIRC, the PM has to be from the lower house.'

    Robert - the Australian Senate is a very different beast, designed to be similar to the US Senate in powers etc. And it played a key role in the crisis involving the Whitlam government in 1975...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
    But only 2 months of Jez as leader. This is supposed to be his honeymoon period. Things generally go down hill from this point onwards for the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    Strange to think there was a time when even Ed Miliband was on 40+ in the polls...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it does seem especially bad.

    That said, Miliband lasted five years without challenge. Brown took Labour to 19% in one poll and they couldn't even unite to topple him.

    This may be different. But we'll see.

    18% was Labour's low point in the GEVI polls under Brown, though they went even lower in the actual Europarliament vote.

    Corbyn could well go lower, though only if the Lib Dems and/or UKIP get their act together.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The interview last night on channel 4 summed up the tragedy-cum-farce that is the modern Labour Party. Well worth a view.

    It is between the Labour shadow defence minister and the man Corbyn put in charge to lead the review in the post Trident policy.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClEn9twKyRM&sns=em

    On reflection this appointment of Livingstone is perhaps the most totemic thing in the whole span of Corbyn's leadership to date. It is surely a clear indication of the way the Labour Party will go.

    BTW - given his actions it is now surely time to drop the happy chappy pally soubriquet 'Ken' when it comes to talking about the odious Livingstone.
    Indeed what with him effectively in charge of labour defence policy and the egregious Watson the deputy leader, just what have Labour come to?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TSE I feel a thread header coming on.

    Me too.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12004756/Paris-attacks-Abdelhamid-Abaaoud-police-France-terrorist-Islamic-State-flight-live.html
    France could face the risk of chemical or bacterial warfare in its fight against Islamist militants, Manuel Valls, the FR said on Thursday.

    "We must not rule anything out. I say it with all the precautions needed. But we know and bear in mind that there is also a risk of chemical or bacteriological weapons," Mr Valls told parliament.

    "The macabre imagination of the masterminds is limitless," he said in a speech in the lower house of parliament meant to gain approval to an extension of the state of emergency.
    Context is everything. Politician pulls every theoretical risk from the air in the hope his request for extended emergency powers wont receive too much scrutiny - shocker!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Slackbladder, the British are famous for their sense of humour ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,084
    Slackbladder

    "The old 'definition of insanity' line springs to mind."

    You're not allowed to use the word 'insane' anymore-or loopy or screwball or fruitcake or barking or batty or crackers or nutters-in case you insult someone who actually is.

    The English language is certainy going to lose its colour
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    flightpath01 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.

    Corbyn it seems to be turning out is just very bad at politics, even his own brand of politics. I would imagine he would want to make as few public statements and appearances as possible - at least until his minders get him to practice a bit more.
    However no matter how dim he is, there can be little doubt surely that those behind him are serious about transmogrifying the Labour Party and of course the PLP. I do not think they care about winning the next election.
    I don't know what else we expected? That he is not fit to be LotO, in terms that has sustained our political process for the past few decades, is no surprise to us or him. He is already in turmoil that he was required to compromise his views on the state's use of force (the UK state, hence the oppressor state), and going to see the Queen of all things.

    His endgame is to create an agit-group which pursues narrowly-defined left wing goals and needs all the agit-prop warriors of old. Once he has populated the group accordingly then he can sit and agitate. Against what? Whaddya got?

    Truly for him the present is a different country.

    It is far from an opposition or government in waiting but it is what he wants to do and I can't believe there is any surprise from anyone that this is the case.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    edited November 2015
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
    But only 2 months of Jez as leader. This is supposed to be his honeymoon period. Things generally go down hill from this point onwards for the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    Strange to think there was a time when even Ed Miliband was on 40+ in the polls...
    Next May, you can see Labour not winning the London Mayoralty, losing their majority in Wales, losing a plethora of English council seats, and the electoral money shot, finishing third behind the Tories in Scotland.

    Even worse than Ed Miliband isn't a sobriquet you want.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: 60% of voters back Syria air strikes. Further evidence of the way Corbynmania is sweeping the nation.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Crosby, blimey.

    Good time then for the Shadow Chancellor to talk of getting rid of MI5 and de-arming the police.

    Is it ideological foolishness or do they actively seek to harm the UK ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TOPPING said:

    flightpath01 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.
    n.
    I don't know what else we expected? That he is not fit to be LotO, in terms that has sustained our political process for the past few decades, is no surprise to us or him. He is already in turmoil that he was required to compromise his views on the state's use of force (the UK state, hence the oppressor state), and going to see the Queen of all things.

    His endgame is to create an agit-group which pursues narrowly-defined left wing goals and needs all the agit-prop warriors of old. Once he has populated the group accordingly then he can sit and agitate. Against what? Whaddya got?

    Truly for him the present is a different country.

    It is far from an opposition or government in waiting but it is what he wants to do and I can't believe there is any surprise from anyone that this is the case.
    The question is how much damage he does to the labour party either temporary or permanent.

    If it was just a matter of ousting him, and replacing with Benn/Cooper/Jarvis whoever then thats one thing.

    It's the fallout from the member which is the real issue, when the PLP reject the person which was very clearly elected by them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    One thing about Corbyn. He rewards his mates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,117
    Richie McCaw retired today.

    Two world cups and three times player of the year.

    Jonah Lomu was surely one of the greatest wingers ever.

    The Conservatives should aim to be like the All Blacks. Always striving to do their best, even if their level above the opposition is as great as NZ - France in the RWC quarters earlier this year.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The PLP is divorced from the membership. The membership is divorced from reality. NickP and his mates knew they were voting for someone who hangs out with apologists for terrorism and they knew that as leader he would surround himself with others who do the same. Thus, NickP and his mates are getting what they wanted: the end of Labour as a credible party of government. Lucky them. It's not everyday we get exactly what we vote for.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,308
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    JC is not the problem. The problem is the people who voted him into the leadership: they despise Middle England (not that I'd ever live there either) and Labour's opponents will bang that drum for two or three Parliaments to come.

    I actually think the problem is the utter lack of talent within the labour party. I'm really not sure how many people actually voted for JC as the perfect candidate and how many for JC can't be worse than the other 3 pigmies.

    The real weakness in Labour is two fold:

    1) its got an internal fight to make between remaining left wing or fighting for the middle ground.
    2) it has few MPs of talent due to past purges..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,117
    Indigo said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12004756/Paris-attacks-Abdelhamid-Abaaoud-police-France-terrorist-Islamic-State-flight-live.html
    France could face the risk of chemical or bacterial warfare in its fight against Islamist militants, Manuel Valls, the FR said on Thursday.

    "We must not rule anything out. I say it with all the precautions needed. But we know and bear in mind that there is also a risk of chemical or bacteriological weapons," Mr Valls told parliament.

    "The macabre imagination of the masterminds is limitless," he said in a speech in the lower house of parliament meant to gain approval to an extension of the state of emergency.
    Context is everything. Politician pulls every theoretical risk from the air in the hope his request for extended emergency powers wont receive too much scrutiny - shocker!

    And now it's the headline story on BBC News online.

    It'd be good to know if there's some hard intelligence behind this - it doesn't sound like it. But he's right; there is a risk. The question is how big that risk is, if it is in any way quantifiable.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That really needs to be a splash story - it was only in April.
    Floater said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Crosby, blimey.

    Good time then for the Shadow Chancellor to talk of getting rid of MI5 and de-arming the police.

    Is it ideological foolishness or do they actively seek to harm the UK ?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,519
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    I look forward to hearing Corbyn's views about such threats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Slackbladder, Zhuge Liang argued that choosing jobs for people rather than people for jobs leads to failure.

    Mr. Jonathan, I do sympathise. The country needs a credible alternative government, to hold the Conservatives to account during this Parliament and to be a viable option come the General Election.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Roger said:

    ...
    You're not allowed to use the word 'insane' anymore-or loopy or screwball or fruitcake or barking or batty or crackers or nutters-in case you insult someone who actually is.
    The English language is certainy going to lose its colour

    I would blame the lefty PC brigade for this. Who would you credit for it Rog?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    I'm beginning to think Corbyn will resign soon, he must realise that he's way out of his depth in so many respects. He must crave the days he could go on protests in relative anonymity.
    Corbyn's the lid on the Labour pressure cooker. He goes and all hell will break loose, as the various factions turn on each other.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I admire loyalty as a general rule - but Ken's remarks were beyond the pale and appointing him to be Maria's minder/Corbyn's man so transparent. Then we have Andrew Fisher apparently getting a slapped wrist for all his antics, and staying in their Party/keeping his job. And Diane's Christmas cards...

    If you're one of the Comrade Cronies - you can do anything you fancy.
    Slackbladder said:

    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    One thing about Corbyn. He rewards his mates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,117
    JosiasJessop said:

    Indigo said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12004756/Paris-attacks-Abdelhamid-Abaaoud-police-France-terrorist-Islamic-State-flight-live.html
    France could face the risk of chemical or bacterial warfare in its fight against Islamist militants, Manuel Valls, the FR said on Thursday.

    "We must not rule anything out. I say it with all the precautions needed. But we know and bear in mind that there is also a risk of chemical or bacteriological weapons," Mr Valls told parliament.

    "The macabre imagination of the masterminds is limitless," he said in a speech in the lower house of parliament meant to gain approval to an extension of the state of emergency.
    Context is everything. Politician pulls every theoretical risk from the air in the hope his request for extended emergency powers wont receive too much scrutiny - shocker!
    And now it's the headline story on BBC News online.

    It'd be good to know if there's some hard intelligence behind this - it doesn't sound like it. But he's right; there is a risk. The question is how big that risk is, if it is in any way quantifiable.

    I liked Putin's justification - this is revenge for the Metrojet, prepare to be flattened. Far more honest than the bullshit we got from Tony Blair over Iraq !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    I'm optimistic for UKIP. I put some money on them at 8/1 earlier on this week.

    Everything Corbyn has done this week is designed to help UKIP in Oldham

    If I were in Oldham I'd definitely be voting UKIP. I imagine many erstwhile Labour supporters up there to do so. Humiliating defeat in election after election is the only possible way party members might be brought to their senses.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    edited November 2015
    Slackbladder said:

    TOPPING said:

    flightpath01 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.
    n.
    I don't know what else we expected? That he is not fit to be LotO, in terms that has sustained our political process for the past few decades, is no surprise to us or him. He is already in turmoil that he was required to compromise his views on the state's use of force (the UK state, hence the oppressor state), and going to see the Queen of all things.

    His endgame is to create an agit-group which pursues narrowly-defined left wing goals and needs all the agit-prop warriors of old. Once he has populated the group accordingly then he can sit and agitate. Against what? Whaddya got?

    Truly for him the present is a different country.

    It is far from an opposition or government in waiting but it is what he wants to do and I can't believe there is any surprise from anyone that this is the case.
    The question is how much damage he does to the labour party either temporary or permanent.

    If it was just a matter of ousting him, and replacing with Benn/Cooper/Jarvis whoever then thats one thing.

    It's the fallout from the member which is the real issue, when the PLP reject the person which was very clearly elected by them.
    Indeed and I think @SouthamObserver has answered that well.

    Most Lab members I know would jump at an alternative centre-left party the idea of which I appreciate doesn't have a great historical track record. But the disconnect is so intense atm, and it is looking to intensify still more, that I can't see an alternative.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    SouthamObserver said:

    The PLP is divorced from the membership. The membership is divorced from reality. NickP and his mates knew they were voting for someone who hangs out with apologists for terrorism and they knew that as leader he would surround himself with others who do the same. Thus, NickP and his mates are getting what they wanted: the end of Labour as a credible party of government. Lucky them. It's not everyday we get exactly what we vote for.

    Quite, on QT last week a man in the audience berated the Sun editor for picking on Corbyn, as the Sun man said:

    "It's not us, its the labour party that are picking on him."

    It will get worse for the likes of Mr Palmer, when Corbyn goes the decision making process in selecting the replacement will be hilarious as they perform about turn after about turn.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,117
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    That gives them 52 months to find a strategy, a prospectus and a coherent alternative. They've wasted the last 8 months.
    But only 2 months of Jez as leader. This is supposed to be his honeymoon period. Things generally go down hill from this point onwards for the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    Strange to think there was a time when even Ed Miliband was on 40+ in the polls...
    Next May, you can see Labour not winning the London Mayoralty, losing their majority in Wales, losing a plethora of English council seats, and the electoral money shot, finishing third behind the Tories in Scotland.

    Even worse than Ed Miliband isn't a sobriquet you want.
    International Rescue being parachuted in to Huddersfield would be the icing on the cake of Labour's ongoing drama.

    PLEASE let it happen !
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Roger said:

    ...
    You're not allowed to use the word 'insane' anymore-or loopy or screwball or fruitcake or barking or batty or crackers or nutters-in case you insult someone who actually is.
    The English language is certainy going to lose its colour

    I would blame the lefty PC brigade for this. Who would you credit for it Rog?
    But that is not the issue. Livingstone used an extensive stream of rude invective invoking mental illness about a man who he and everyone knew was suffering from clinical depression. He did not simply say, 'Oh that's bonkers'.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    I'm beginning to think Corbyn will resign soon, he must realise that he's way out of his depth in so many respects. He must crave the days he could go on protests in relative anonymity.
    The stress may force him out. But do they then go for another lefty wild cat (McDonnel) or a sensible hard leftie such as Tricket.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Roger said:

    Slackbladder

    "The old 'definition of insanity' line springs to mind."

    You're not allowed to use the word 'insane' anymore-or loopy or screwball or fruitcake or barking or batty or crackers or nutters-in case you insult someone who actually is.

    The English language is certainy going to lose its colour

    Is that a feeble attempt to defend Ken Livingstone's attack on Kevan Jones yesterday?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Re Oldham I'm keen to see how ukip are approaching it, there are a couple of high profile very capable people locally such as Nuttall and Wolfe who could make a big difference.

    I'm also interested in what the core message is, in light of Paris do they play the jingoist WWC card or take a more moderate approach and hope that tories will vote for them.

    Fascinating scenario unfolding up there, I hear optimistic feedback albeit with a mountain to climb.

    I'm optimistic for UKIP. I put some money on them at 8/1 earlier on this week.

    Everything Corbyn has done this week is designed to help UKIP in Oldham
    I hope you're right but the strategy is interesting, there is a fine line between whipping up the WWC and creating resentment in what I understand is a heavily muslim populated area. The word "racist" will be on the lips of every labour campaigner.

    I am sure Labour would be dismayed if someone tried to make the white man angry.

    They never would have tried anything like that, right?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,519
    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    He was on Radio 5 this morning and flippantly, because he was as always getting narked, suggested spending £20 billion on mental health care rather than submarines. I can not see Ken seriously thinking about defence, he's been given the job to deliver an already chosen answer.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,084
    Watford

    " Is that a feeble attempt to defend Ken Livingstone's attack on Kevan Jones yesterday?"

    I thought Ken ws pathetic yesterday. Carlotta sums it up best "He started it miss..."

    I'm just bored with people being outraged at the wrong things.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    flightpath01 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.

    .
    Early signs are the Momentum is not living up to the hype - in my CLP membership has doubled but the numbers attending meetings is up by only 30-40% and the number actually taking part in doorstep work has not increased at all. A few hard left activists have appeared but their numbers are small. Momentum is certainly not an organised mass movement of new members - seems to me that many of the new members are a kind of political flashmob and they could melt away as quickly as they appeared when the electoral consequences of Corbyn become clear. This could be as soon as OWR but more likely the elections next May.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,117
    I think UKIP could well win the WWC vote in Oldham. The muslim vote will get Labour over the line there !
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TOPPING said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TOPPING said:

    flightpath01 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    Probably. But the best thing for them really, on reflection, is to wait for the result to see what happens.
    They will no doubt have a thought anyway that Corbyn is 66 anyway and may just get worn down. Not having any direct intelligence about how determined and successful 'Momentum' is at infiltrating and taking over the party then it is difficult to know how fatal it is for the 'moderates' to wait or hesitate before jumping ship.
    n.
    I don't know what else we expected? That he is not fit to be LotO, in terms that has sustained our political process for the past few decades, is no surprise to us or him. He is already in turmoil that he was required to compromise his views on the state's use of force (the UK state, hence the oppressor state), and going to see the Queen of all things.

    His endgame is to create an agit-group which pursues narrowly-defined left wing goals and needs all the agit-prop warriors of old. Once he has populated the group accordingly then he can sit and agitate. Against what? Whaddya got?

    Truly for him the present is a different country.

    It is far from an opposition or government in waiting but it is what he wants to do and I can't believe there is any surprise from anyone that this is the case.
    The question is how much damage he does to the labour party either temporary or permanent.

    If it was just a matter of ousting him, and replacing with Benn/Cooper/Jarvis whoever then thats one thing.

    It's the fallout from the member which is the real issue, when the PLP reject the person which was very clearly elected by them.
    Indeed and I think @SouthamObserver has answered that well.

    Most Lab members I know would jump at an alternative centre-left party the idea of which I appreciate doesn't have a great historical track record. But the disconnect is so intense atm, and it is looking to intensify still more, that I can't see an alternative.
    'Left wing politics has had its day,' you should tell your friends. It's failed time and again; all over the world. Don't save the labour party, put it out of its misery. A bunch of misfits led by Hilary Benn is hardly going to save the world.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    The Conservatives should aim to be like the All Blacks. Always striving to do their best, even if their level above the opposition is as great as NZ - France in the RWC quarters earlier this year.

    I fear the sight of semi naked Conservative warriors in the shape of Nicholas Soames and Eric Pickles doing the haka is one of the few possibilities left to send Jezza into Downing Street and much of the nation into lifelong therapy.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    Corbyn may as well get Gerry Adams to review his Northern Ireland policy.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    JosiasJessop said:

    Indigo said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12004756/Paris-attacks-Abdelhamid-Abaaoud-police-France-terrorist-Islamic-State-flight-live.html
    France could face the risk of chemical or bacterial warfare in its fight against Islamist militants, Manuel Valls, the FR said on Thursday.

    "We must not rule anything out. I say it with all the precautions needed. But we know and bear in mind that there is also a risk of chemical or bacteriological weapons," Mr Valls told parliament.

    "The macabre imagination of the masterminds is limitless," he said in a speech in the lower house of parliament meant to gain approval to an extension of the state of emergency.
    Context is everything. Politician pulls every theoretical risk from the air in the hope his request for extended emergency powers wont receive too much scrutiny - shocker!
    And now it's the headline story on BBC News online.

    It'd be good to know if there's some hard intelligence behind this - it doesn't sound like it. But he's right; there is a risk. The question is how big that risk is, if it is in any way quantifiable.

    From Libya?
    http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-chemical-weapons-libya-military-warns-islamic-state-might-have-mustard-gas-sarin-1824080
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Slackbladder said:

    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    One thing about Corbyn. He rewards his mates.
    or rewards those he mates with?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,795
    @election_data: Can we have ONE HOUR, or at least a morning, where Labour is not the news. Please.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SouthamObserver said:

    The PLP is divorced from the membership. The membership is divorced from reality. NickP and his mates knew they were voting for someone who hangs out with apologists for terrorism and they knew that as leader he would surround himself with others who do the same. Thus, NickP and his mates are getting what they wanted: the end of Labour as a credible party of government. Lucky them. It's not everyday we get exactly what we vote for.

    Personally whilst voting firmly against Corbyn in the election, I wanted to reserve judgement on his leadership until Christmas on the basis that the increased engagement in politics he inspired was interesting and potentially positive.

    I am not sure I am going to make it. :-(
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Regarding Hilary Benn, he seems rather too nice and accommodating to lead anything. Corbyn pushed him straight off the NEC.
    If Jezza goes, I'd be genuinely concerned about McIRA leadership. Trickett even more so.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2015
    glw said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: French PM warns of possible chemical weapon attacks...

    I look forward to hearing Corbyn's views about such threats.
    A good supply of fairy liquid to be handed out to the SAS
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    eek said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    JC is not the problem. The problem is the people who voted him into the leadership: they despise Middle England (not that I'd ever live there either) and Labour's opponents will bang that drum for two or three Parliaments to come.

    I actually think the problem is the utter lack of talent within the labour party. I'm really not sure how many people actually voted for JC as the perfect candidate and how many for JC can't be worse than the other 3 pigmies. [my italics - DH]

    The real weakness in Labour is two fold:

    1) its got an internal fight to make between remaining left wing or fighting for the middle ground.
    2) it has few MPs of talent due to past purges..
    But JC is now showing himself to be *a lot* worse than Cooper or Burnham would have been. Sure, they wouldn't have set the world on fire and Burnham looked horribly prone to succumbing to whatever pressure he was under at any given time, but they wouldn't be imploding the party in the way Corbyn is had one of them won.

    I've left Kendall out, partly as she was never going to win anyway and partly because there may well still have been some kind of civil war had she, by some extraordinary turn of events, done so.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :open_mouth:
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    One thing about Corbyn. He rewards his mates.
    or rewards those he mates with?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else thinking we've not had mass Labour resignations in the last few days was because they know if Labour lost Oldham West & Royton they'd get the blame?

    No. There's always an excuse not to act. That's just the current one.
    This can't go on like this for another four and a half years. Surely ?
    Tissue Price's quote from Waiting For Godot is the perfect summation of Labour right now:

    "I can't go on like this.'"
    "That's what you think."
    This time it'll be different.
    Why? The non-Corbynites have no strategy, no prospectus and no coherent alternative. All they have is an appalled sense of impending doom.
    Because they won't be able to deal with 52 more months of this.

    Labour MPs saw what happened in Scotland. They know no majority is safe now.
    I'm beginning to think Corbyn will resign soon, he must realise that he's way out of his depth in so many respects. He must crave the days he could go on protests in relative anonymity.
    The stress may force him out. But do they then go for another lefty wild cat (McDonnel) or a sensible hard leftie such as Tricket.
    I don't see the age issue with JC - That may be because I'm 61, but he could lead until he was 70 easily.

    I also don't get the stress argument. He is accustomed to having his views lampooned, ridiculed and dismissed by press,colleagues and the public outside his comfort blanket.
    The antagonism towards him will be water off a ducks back.

    He knows he is right in his mission to move the Labour Party left. A little temporary personal discomfort is a minor inconvenience to put up with when the project is moving ahead.

    Indeed, while the focus is on him and policy there is less scrutiny of the 'in party' amendments that are going on. A very satisfactory outcome.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,061
    I've gone from a Labour Party member to an ABC (Anyone but Corbyn) voter in the course of a few months. I can't blame Tories for revelling in the moment, technically as I live in a Labour super-marginal I could be classed as a Tory voter right now. However I think the existentialist talk about the Labour Party is way off the mark. Those clamouring for Corbyn to go need to be careful what they wish for - a replacement by someone like Dan Jarvis would have me switching back and rejoining in a moment. The focus would then move to things like the tax credits and Tory divisions on Europe which are going to get very nasty soon I suspect. 2020 is a long way away and I would have thought it was in the Tories best interests to keep Corbyn in place.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Floater said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Crosby, blimey.

    Good time then for the Shadow Chancellor to talk of getting rid of MI5 and de-arming the police.

    Is it ideological foolishness or do they actively seek to harm the UK ?
    I think it's foolishness. People don't generally go into politics because they're motivated by hatred.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    And to think this Labour pickle all traces back to bottler Brown and the election that wasn't...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    And to think this Labour pickle all traces back to bottler Brown and the election that wasn't...

    I think you're wrong. I reckon if he had gone for it, Labour would have gone down to heavier defeat in 2012 and the LDs would now be in a stronger position.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12002350/Paris-France-terror-attacks-isil-Saint-Denis-raid-Molenbeek-suspects-Syria-bombing-live.html
    The 19-year-old suspected of being the bomber who built the suicide belts used in the Paris attacks has reportedly turned himself in to police, writes Rory Mulholland in Paris.

    They found two sticks of plastic "C4" explosives. "There is no established link wih the Paris attacks," added a spokesman. A judicial investigation has been opened.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    One short sentence that encapsulates almost everything that is wrong the Labour party.

    "Ken Livingstone is chairing Labour's defence review"

    I'm mean, seriously.

    Corbyn may as well get Gerry Adams to review his Northern Ireland policy.
    Oh dear I fear that is his next appointment.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    And to think this Labour pickle all traces back to bottler Brown and the election that wasn't...

    Which means it has roots in the Blair / Brown Granita pact. A long slow simmer.
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