politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Sunday Trading vote: Dave/Osbo’s problem is not the SNP
Comments
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Tories at 7-2 is enormous according to that analysis.isam said:
Try againlogical_song said:
Badly worded "UKIP third if they're lucky and saved deposit."isam said:
October 23rdlogical_song said:
Did you read my entry?isam said:
You still think UKIP will poll under 10%?logical_song said:rcs1000 said:
It'll also be a very low turnout by-election. I reckon turnout will be down 40-50%. And if the LDs get out 75-80% of their vote in that environment, without picking up a single new voter, then they'll keep their deposit.isam said:rcs1000 said:
£500?isam said:
How much at evs?rcs1000 said:
Shadsy's smarter than I look.isam said:rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps
)
I was saying that if UKIP were seriously challenging Labour then others Libdems, Greens etc would get very squeezed.
When did I say that UKIP would get under 10% in Oldham? Do you think they will lose half their votes there?
logical_song • Posts: 1,426
October 23
Yes but UKIP have been down in every election and poll since the GE sometimes by quite large percentages. Haven't they lost all their defences since the GE, except for one hold? They have also lost their one Council.
Labour win easily, Tories 2nd, UKIP third and saved deposit if they're lucky.
logical_song • Posts: 1,427
October 23
Sorry but I think it quite likely that UKIP will only lose 75% of their vote and end up with a deposit saving 5%, so no thanks.
But then again they are 1000 on Betfair whereas UKIP are around 9s, implying UKIP 1-6 is a stonker.
UKIP 1-6 feels about right to me. Tories at 1000-1 for the seat perhaps a bit long. Not going into that as a backer or layer though.0 -
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.0
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Also on the important fashion question, one should avoid wearing clothes with labels ostentatiously displayed or at all. You are not an advertising hoarding and it is quite vulgar.
Also when you buy something new change the buttons. They are invariably cheap and nasty. New nice buttons will in subtle ways improve the outfit no end.
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There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.0 -
What do they say about tattoos? Indicative of those who are incapable of thinking about the future?Plato_Says said:
I bought a 'bollocks to Blair' polo shirt over 10 years ago for the hunting ban protests.
It still embarrasses me now even though it's just sitting in a draw, and is so dreadfully dated.0 -
Just back from Pope watching in Florence. It is difficult to imagine a more inspirational figure. I think the atmosphere around the stadium where he conducted mass was better than when Fiorentina trounced Juve 4-20
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In what way are his 'concessions' not embarrassingly modest?antifrank said:My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
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I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.antifrank said:My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
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Is she actually referring to the renegotiation?Richard_Nabavi said:
Quite a good reference to counter those who say the renegotiation doesn't amount to a hill of beans, though.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The endorsement he didn't want? French FN's Marine Le Pen: "I am so happy to see David Cameron doing in the UK what I want to do for France"
In reality, almost every single reaction has been entirely predictable and tells you about the preconceptions of the person concerned, not about the renegotiation itself.
I will pocket that last statement Richard for its ironic value!0 -
Well, there's the daddy Jean-Marie Le Pen of course, and just fromUK reports, Marine's niece, Marion Le Pen, apparently takes more after her granddad than her aunt and is already significant party figure.OldKingCole said:
“Least” or “less”? How many of them are there?kle4 said:
She's apparently the least crazy Le Pen, if it helps?Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The endorsement he didn't want? French FN's Marine Le Pen: "I am so happy to see David Cameron doing in the UK what I want to do for France"
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I'd try selling it on e-bay. Definitely think there's a market for that one.Casino_Royale said:
What do they say about tattoos? Indicative of those who are incapable of thinking about the future?Plato_Says said:
I bought a 'bollocks to Blair' polo shirt over 10 years ago for the hunting ban protests.
It still embarrasses me now even though it's just sitting in a draw, and is so dreadfully dated.0 -
Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.Cyclefree said:
Yes - being comfortable and being stylish/elegant are not incompatible. I can't abide achingly fashionable clothes and shoes which look and are uncomfortable. Being elegant is also about wearing the right clothes for the right occasion.JosiasJessop said:
On the other hand, some of us would prefer to be comfortable. I tried following fashion for a fortnight when I was 18, and had a gf who was very much into fashion.Cyclefree said:I can't understand the fuss about Sunday trading, TBH, and don't much care.
I'm amazed at how much shopping people are doing all the time. Where can they possibly put it all? What do they want it for? Look at the numbers of people in clothes shops, for instance. And yet when you walk the streets so many people are so appallingly dressed looking as if (a) they haven't bought new clothes in years; and/or (b) as if they got dressed in the dark or, in some cases, as if they fell into their wardrobes with glue on their bodies.
They could do with mirrors, in some cases, rear view ones.
I soon realised how much she and her friends were getting fleeced for by trying to follow fashion (e.g. jackets by a Japenese designer whose name I cannot remember, fakes of which were available on Camden Market, which cost much less and didn't disintegrate after a few weeks).
Since then, I've much preferred comfort over style. Why does anyone want to do the same as everyone else anyway, especially when it costs them such a great amount of money? Worse are the football shirts: people spending a fortune to advertise a business and also look the same as so many others.
Although I'll admit that a tailored jacket can be extremely comfortable, but also very expensive. At the moment I'm wearing Craghooppers trousers, a Helly Hansen base layer and a thin pair of base layer socks. Would you bet you're more comfortable than me?
In public one should try and avoid being an eyesore.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...0 -
What's a nautican walker?JosiasJessop said:Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...0 -
Yes, he's a truly impressive figure. Saying this as an atheist, he seems to be returning moral authority to the Catholic Church that it had lost over the child abuse scandals and cover-ups.tyson said:Just back from Pope watching in Florence. It is difficult to imagine a more inspirational figure. I think the atmosphere around the stadium where he conducted mass was better than when Fiorentina trounced Juve 4-2
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He starts from the position that he wants us to leave the EU completely. Unsurprisingly, therefore, he's not satisfied with a renegotiation which is not, and never has been, about leaving the EU completely.Luckyguy1983 said:So you'll have no issue with telling us which part of Hannan's verdict on the 'renegotiation points' you disagree with then.
So I don't disagree with his verdict, in the sense that, from his point of view, it's correct. I wouldn't have needed to know anything about what Cameron was going to say, or to read Dan Hannan's response, to be able to predict that in advance.
Edit: I'm not knocking Dan, by the way. I think he's one of most thoughtful and persuasive of the Leavers, and a very nice and engaging guy.0 -
I was waiting for someone to do that.Tissue_Price said:
What's a nautican walker?JosiasJessop said:Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ... 0 -
Or. to turn my point round, can anyone cite any response to Cameron's speech and letter, by anyone, which is surprising?
Ms Le Pen's perhaps comes closest, actually.0 -
Well, we don't know what he's going to get yet. So, they are going to be somewhere on the "modest" to "embarrassingly modest" scale depending on how much of the speech he gets.Luckyguy1983 said:
In what way are his 'concessions' not embarrassingly modest?antifrank said:My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
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Cameron's four measures appear meagre in the extreme ..... suddenly it seems appreciably more likely that the nation will vote to leave in the referendum next June.0
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Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015
Very useful link for the upcoming Spanish GE polling. PP clearly on the rise this month with PSOE falling back. A PP/Ciudadanos coalition looking more likely which would be excellent for economic stability. Interestingly the Catalonia push for independence seems to be uniting the rest of Spain in favour of the centre-right parties.0 -
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.0
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What would it take for Cameron to get change that isn't characterised as "modest"?
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But that's not up there with your most Nostradamus-like predictions, and you've had far more than most.antifrank said:My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
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As I've been randomly number crunching today.
LD in OWR got 5.7% of council wards within the constitency at GE2015, so deposit saving could be based on a slight bump in support plus GOTV in their stronger ward of Coldwell, and hoping UKIP aren't a threat to Labour.
UKIP strength relative to Heywood & Middleton: votes running at 1300-1700 across all H&M wards, 1100-1400 across 7/9 wards in OWR but down to 500 in Coldwell and below 300 in Werneth, so potential by-election vote share around 1/3 lower than H&M. Easily out vote Tories 5:3 in the locals - by-election circumstances, even with their current weakness should mean easy 2nd
Tories - 3rd...
Labour - I can only find hagiography of McMahon, lots of positive vibes, seems well regarded locally and looks good to blunt UKIP advance, carpetgate notwithstanding. I think he will have decent incumbency bonus and drive not too bad a turnout. Still liking the cut of his gib - and looking forward to his price on next Labour leader market, with Labour as they are I'd go as low as 40 on day 1, newbie or not - supported Kendall which by rights should be a no-no but think he will re-position as centrist / fresh/ communitarian and definitely ambitious enough. Could he use parliament to jump back as Manchester mayor, which was his previous presumed route? - tbh, think that train may have passed and even though he is out to 20/1 (from 4/1 fav at one point), I'd leave it.0 -
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!0 -
@nigelfletcher: So, assuming she is still in office on Thursday, Theresa May will be the longest-serving Conservative Home Secretary since 1892.0
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Some would not be happy unless the UK severed all ties with the EU and dropped a bomb on Brussels as we whistled goodbye. Others think it should be Strasbourg…chestnut said:What would it take for Cameron to get change that isn't characterised as "modest"?
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Nonsense: you look ideally dressed for a walker. Perhaps we could have a PB meet in one of the better Cumbrian pubs. That would be fun.JosiasJessop said:
Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.Cyclefree said:
Yes - being comfortable and being stylish/elegant are not incompatible. I can't abide achingly fashionable clothes and shoes which look and are uncomfortable. Being elegant is also about wearing the right clothes for the right occasion.JosiasJessop said:
On the other hand, some of us would prefer to be comfortable. I tried following fashion for a fortnight when I was 18, and had a gf who was very much into fashion.Cyclefree said:I can't understand the fuss about Sunday trading, TBH, and don't much care.
I'm amazed at how much shopping people are doing all the time. Where can they possibly put it all? What do they want it for? Look at the numbers of people in clothes shops, for instance. And yet when you walk the streets so many people are so appallingly dressed looking as if (a) they haven't bought new clothes in years; and/or (b) as if they got dressed in the dark or, in some cases, as if they fell into their wardrobes with glue on their bodies.
They could do with mirrors, in some cases, rear view ones.
I soon realised how much she and her friends were getting fleeced for by trying to follow fashion (e.g. jackets by a Japenese designer whose name I cannot remember, fakes of which were available on Camden Market, which cost much less and didn't disintegrate after a few weeks).
Since then, I've much preferred comfort over style. Why does anyone want to do the same as everyone else anyway, especially when it costs them such a great amount of money? Worse are the football shirts: people spending a fortune to advertise a business and also look the same as so many others.
Although I'll admit that a tailored jacket can be extremely comfortable, but also very expensive. At the moment I'm wearing Craghooppers trousers, a Helly Hansen base layer and a thin pair of base layer socks. Would you bet you're more comfortable than me?
In public one should try and avoid being an eyesore.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...0 -
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.0 -
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/10 -
Righto £10 at 9/1 you're onPong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 13/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
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@whatukthinks: Latest @ICMResearch #euref weekly tracker. Remain 55 (+1) Leave 45 (-1). Fwork 6-8.11.150
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Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".0 -
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.Richard_Nabavi said:One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
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What an embarrassingly modest ambition. You should be campaigning for zero coverage whatsoever.Danny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".0 -
isam said:
Righto £10 at 9/1 you're onPong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
I think 22.5% is the largest overround I've ever bet on.
You'd make a good bookie, isam 0 -
Why don't you join party Scrapheap and I have set up, we've got four members so far, it's calledDanny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject.
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"0 -
My main interest in betting tends numerological not financial (though the last Christmas party at the dogs easily covered the entry and chicken in a bucket), but I would favour 20-25 at the prices given.Pong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/10 -
Colour me a cynic but this is probably the only thing I disagree with you on: I don't think there's some secret eurosceptic meat behind the scenes.JEO said:
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.Richard_Nabavi said:One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
What we see is what we'll get, and probably less.0 -
Yes count me in. I was much more energised by Scottish Independence and even AV.Danny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".0 -
Simple question, can you envisage any circumstances in which you'd vote to remain in the EU, if so, what are those circumstances?Casino_Royale said:
Colour me a cynic but this is probably the only thing I disagree with you on: I don't think there's some secret eurosceptic meat behind the scenes.JEO said:
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.Richard_Nabavi said:One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
What we see is what we'll get, and probably less.0 -
HahaPong said:isam said:
Righto £10 at 9/1 you're onPong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
I think 22.5% is the largest overround I've ever bet on.
You'd make a good bookie, isam
Defensive earlies while flying solo! 0 -
I could just about go for that. The troublesome word, though, is 'Tory'TheScreamingEagles said:
Why don't you join party Scrapheap and I have set up, we've got four members so far, it's calledDanny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject.
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"0 -
Go on then, I'll take 130/20 on 5-10.isam said:
Righto £10 at 9/1 you're onPong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 13/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/10 -
And a robber button is?Tissue_Price said:
What's a nautican walker?JosiasJessop said:Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...0 -
Which goes to show that Cameron has a really strong hand - if he has the balls to play it. "Give us meaningful reform - or I recommned LEAVE. And the country will follow my instruction...and then the EU is fecked. Your call guys. And don't try to fob me off. That will make me angry. And that is the quickest way to the exit..."TheScreamingEagles said:@whatukthinks: Latest @ICMResearch #euref weekly tracker. Remain 55 (+1) Leave 45 (-1). Fwork 6-8.11.15
I can only hope to God that this is being said behind closed doors in Brussels...0 -
Most of the beggars I see now on the streets of London seem to be Roma.blackburn63 said:
Its the Roma that most people resent in my experience. I know some Romanians that disown them.taffys said:d) random scare story in the Mail about a new EU law forcing everyone to learn Polish.
And I'm not sure people really care about EU immigration that much. Its Asian subcontinent and African immigration that really gets people going.
Immigration is also a codeword for antipathy to certain communities who largely hold British passports.0 -
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.MarqueeMark said:
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!0 -
The oddschecker red pounced upon!!Tissue_Price said:
Go on then, I'll take 130/20 on 5-10.isam said:
Righto £10 at 9/1 you're onPong said:
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?isam said:
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwisedavid_herdson said:
A Labour win range market would be interesting.isam said:How about a Labour Oldham Hcap Mkt
Lab (-16) 5/6
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 13/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
You're on
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 12/5
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
0 -
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/left-wing-media-caught-out-by-the-corbyn-vip-lunch-lie/?CMP=spklr-_-S9SunSocial-_-TWITTER-_-SunNation-_-20151109-_-Politics-_-273276335-_-Imageandlink
Putting aside the ridiculous OTT criticism of Corbyn on Remembrance Sunday from Mail/Sun, it is interesting how this "story" about the Corbyn vs PM and his VIP lunch has been filling up my timelines / twitter feed, despite also not being true.
When will people learn, yes you Huffington Post and alike, you can't believe everything you read on twitter.0 -
Cameron has the Midas touch to voters. He will get enough of it to proclaim success and win the vote.peter_from_putney said:Cameron's four measures appear meagre in the extreme ..... suddenly it seems appreciably more likely that the nation will vote to leave in the referendum next June.
I'm still thinking 55/45. Which is awful because it will make me one of the 45.
0 -
Excellent. I think we also had a little chat about Bath - what with there being no incumbency...?Casino_Royale said:
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.MarqueeMark said:
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!0 -
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11983818/The-Man-in-the-High-Castle-stars-stripes-and-swastikas.html
There is the 20th / 21st November written off then...0 -
Yes, I was very bullish on Bath. Also because it was a posh English spa town and there's been a track record of similar areas - Winchester, Harrogate and Richmond - moving the same way over previous years.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent. I think we also had a little chat about Bath - what with there being no incumbency...?Casino_Royale said:
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.MarqueeMark said:
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
I didn't see the LDs holding it with their incumbent MP standing down.0 -
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.0 -
What Mike was privy to about the true state of the LibDem vote is one of the more fascinating questions yet to be aired...TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.0 -
^TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.0 -
I must be due a loss with a forum member though, so LDs probably save their deposit and I'll need to eat some humble pie !0
-
Is there some kind of Numpty award that can go to the first person to use Labour romping home in Oldham as justification that Corbyn is a vote winner?0
-
We were expecting the Lib Dems to put up a rearguard to rival Rorke's Drift, what we got was a defence that rivalled the Maginot Line.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
Heh, I'm going to use that in a thread.0 -
Ah, one nation libertarianism, that nice well meaning rightist tiny government nightmare of Christmas future! The new Corbynistas!TheScreamingEagles said:
Why don't you join party Scrapheap and I have set up, we've got four members so far, it's calledDanny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject.
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"
Much as I get on alright with you people, I'll take my chances with proper nasty party Toryism any day of the week.
Yours - strictly Keynesian, natural party of broader fiscal responsibility because we actually want to do stuff with the money we save, pragmatic about the state's role, socially liberal but slowly slowly catchee monkey and take the electorate with us, not obsessed by class Labour.0 -
I gave that award to some Corbynite on twitter in August who told me Corbyn is a vote winner because he has a 20k majority in IslingtonFreggles said:Is there some kind of Numpty award that can go to the first person to use Labour romping home in Oldham as justification that Corbyn is a vote winner?
0 -
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.0 -
Why oh why do I no longer have Amazon Prime....FrancisUrquhart said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11983818/The-Man-in-the-High-Castle-stars-stripes-and-swastikas.html
There is the 20th / 21st November written off then...
Loved the pilot0 -
اپنے منہ میاں مٹھو ! ۔0
-
For me, the final confirmation that the Ashcroft polls were way too flattering to the Lib Dems was that North Cornwall poll about a week before Election Day.
That poll showed on the standard "how would you vote?" question that the Tories had a comfortable lead, yet on the "thinking specifically about your local area" question, there was a big turnaround and the Lib Dems were ahead. But, that close to an election, anyone who was genuinely intending to vote LibDem on the day would surely be answering that way to ANY voting question by that point.
In truth, a lot of people don't vote in a General Election "thinking specifically about their local area" - they vote on national issues.0 -
O/T - Leftwing coalition defeats centre-right in Portugal's parliament this afternoon. Fun and games ahead....0
-
Communists to support new government in Portugal. Another headache for Merkel.0
-
Re Cameron on Europe
Is that it!!0 -
taffys said:
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.taffys said:''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.0 -
Will Conservative be acceptable instead of Tory?ThomasNashe said:
I could just about go for that. The troublesome word, though, is 'Tory'TheScreamingEagles said:
Why don't you join party Scrapheap and I have set up, we've got four members so far, it's calledDanny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject.
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"0 -
The obvious candidates will say that's just the obvious candidates saying thatbigjohnowls said:0 -
You should avoid Cumbria if I'm there. They decide to refill the lakes every time I visit.Cyclefree said:Nonsense: you look ideally dressed for a walker. Perhaps we could have a PB meet in one of the better Cumbrian pubs. That would be fun.
The Dark Peak of Derbyshire's a different matter. A PB meet on Kinder Scout per'aps? I can just imagine SeanT chatting up a sheep, Richard Navabi up to his neck in the peat, OGH floundering in Kinder Downfall (which is actually an upfall most of the time) or iSam standing on the edge of the Madwoman's Stones as he tries to place bets with passing walkers.
Oh, and Bev stuck on Jacob's Ladder with a broken high heel on one of her shoes. Or TSE sitting at the edge of a stream as he tries to wash a speck of dirt off his.0 -
Ditto. - But would anyone listen to YouGov a second time?JEO said:taffys said:''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.taffys said:''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.0 -
I wonder how many vote swaps actually happen. It must be a sore temptation to just renege within the privacy of the polling booth. Does one take a picture of the ballot paper?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.0 -
He was quite confident on here and on the podcasts that they'd clock at least 20-25 seats.MarqueeMark said:
What Mike was privy to about the true state of the LibDem vote is one of the more fascinating questions yet to be aired...TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.0 -
Excellent. It reminded more of the 'exercise' that the inept base commander loses in Buffalo Soldiers.TheScreamingEagles said:
We were expecting the Lib Dems to put up a rearguard to rival Rorke's Drift, what we got was a defence that rivalled the Maginot Line.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.Casino_Royale said:
There's your mistake right there.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.Casino_Royale said:
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.Tissue_Price said:
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...rcs1000 said:
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)isam said:
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each otherPulpstar said:
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanksrcs1000 said:I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
I shake my head in despair
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps)
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
Heh, I'm going to use that in a thread.0 -
Most of the British public would join you I'm sure, but they have an excuse, as they're completely politically unengaged and more interested in The X-factor. For someone interested enough in politics to post on a political betting forum, there is really no excuse to casually dismiss an organisation which holds legal supremacy over our own Government and from which a conservative 75% of our laws originate. Personally I think you're being disingenuous, possibly because you know that the EU is an anti-democratic farce, but most of your own side support our continued membership.Danny565 said:Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".0 -
But how would a 'Vow' situation even work? How would the EU even offer worthwhile concessions to a Government that hasn't even asked for them?SimonStClare said:
Ditto. - But would anyone listen to YouGov a second time?JEO said:taffys said:''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.taffys said:''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.0 -
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.0 -
Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class.
Surely a very slow boat could be organised0 -
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.bigjohnowls said:Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
0 -
It could hardly be less.JEO said:
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.Richard_Nabavi said:One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
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I'd expect the renegotiation to be almost exactly what's in the letter. I expect that what's taken the time to this point has been finding the things to put in the letter that will be acceptable all round.
If I were David Cameron I'd be trying to make sure that he keeps as many wait-and-seers as possible on board at this stage because they won't be able to get off later. MPs who aren't making a noise now will find it hard later to explain why they didn't do so if David Cameron basically gets everything he's asked for now.0 -
As hissy fits go not quite in the same league as the MP who lost out on the chance to buy a pair of £200 Star Wars shoes. She's also from the North West I think.AndyJS said:
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.bigjohnowls said:Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
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I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.Casino_Royale said:
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.0 -
Any more for anymore?
Oldham by election
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 12/5
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/10 -
Aww, but he's a big and important person. An MP no less. Why should he be expected to slum it like the little people on a freebie trip to China?AndyJS said:
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.bigjohnowls said:Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
No doubt someone will suggest that his time would be better spent in Business Class, but since he's merely a Labour backbencher, it's hardly a valid argument.0 -
The odds on 0-20 can't have been that much shorter?rcs1000 said:
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.Casino_Royale said:
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.0 -
Bloody Cambridge cost me a little on the night !rcs1000 said:
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.Casino_Royale said:
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.0 -
That was a very sensible prediction and you were the most bearish on the LDs here.rcs1000 said:
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.Casino_Royale said:
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
No one seriously thought they'd drop below 10 seats. But also, no one also really knew what would happen to them.
At the BES polling day seminar in London a couple of forecasts had the LDs on zero or one seat. And everyone dismissed that of course.0 -
Apparently he claims to be illAndyJS said:
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.bigjohnowls said:Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
Bad case of verbal Diarrhea perhaps0 -
I think everyone on here is wrong about the renegotiation.antifrank said:I'd expect the renegotiation to be almost exactly what's in the letter. I expect that what's taken the time to this point has been finding the things to put in the letter that will be acceptable all round.
If I were David Cameron I'd be trying to make sure that he keeps as many wait-and-seers as possible on board at this stage because they won't be able to get off later. MPs who aren't making a noise now will find it hard later to explain why they didn't do so if David Cameron basically gets everything he's asked for now.
I don't think there will even be an outline in place by this time next year. I think that the negotitations with the other 27 countries will be significantly more tortuous than is expected. That being said, I think newly Eurosceptic countries (Finland, Denmark), plus places where there are Eurosceptic parties challenging (such as the Netherlands), mean we will probably have more support than people think.
My view is that it will require Germany emphasising firmly the financial consequences of our departure to some of the other countries to finally secure any kind of agreement.
And because every government in the EU seeks to be re-elected, and has their own interests they wish to protect, the end agreement could look absolutely nothing like the current plan.
In other words, the idea this is all "stage managed" is ridiculous.
It is also by no means impossible that we cannot secure the agreement of all 27 other EU states, and that therefore David Cameron backs exit.0 -
I bet against the LDs in about 25 constituencies. The only one I lost was Cambridge!Pulpstar said:
Bloody Cambridge cost me a little on the night !rcs1000 said:
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.Casino_Royale said:
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.Danny565 said:
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.Casino_Royale said:
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
I was at university with a Labour member and activist in Cambridge. He was deeply unimpressed with the Labour candidate, and thought Huppert would walk it. He was as surprised as anyone - despite three weeks of constant campaigning - that Cambridge was won.0
