I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Shadsy's smarter than I look.
How much at evs?
£500?
It'll also be a very low turnout by-election. I reckon turnout will be down 40-50%. And if the LDs get out 75-80% of their vote in that environment, without picking up a single new voter, then they'll keep their deposit.
You still think UKIP will poll under 10%?
Did you read my entry? I was saying that if UKIP were seriously challenging Labour then others Libdems, Greens etc would get very squeezed. When did I say that UKIP would get under 10% in Oldham? Do you think they will lose half their votes there?
October 23rd
logical_song • Posts: 1,426 October 23
Yes but UKIP have been down in every election and poll since the GE sometimes by quite large percentages. Haven't they lost all their defences since the GE, except for one hold? They have also lost their one Council.
Labour win easily, Tories 2nd, UKIP third and saved deposit if they're lucky.
Badly worded "UKIP third if they're lucky and saved deposit."
Try again
logical_song • Posts: 1,427
October 23
Sorry but I think it quite likely that UKIP will only lose 75% of their vote and end up with a deposit saving 5%, so no thanks.
Tories at 7-2 is enormous according to that analysis.
But then again they are 1000 on Betfair whereas UKIP are around 9s, implying UKIP 1-6 is a stonker.
UKIP 1-6 feels about right to me. Tories at 1000-1 for the seat perhaps a bit long. Not going into that as a backer or layer though.
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
Also on the important fashion question, one should avoid wearing clothes with labels ostentatiously displayed or at all. You are not an advertising hoarding and it is quite vulgar.
Also when you buy something new change the buttons. They are invariably cheap and nasty. New nice buttons will in subtle ways improve the outfit no end.
Just back from Pope watching in Florence. It is difficult to imagine a more inspirational figure. I think the atmosphere around the stadium where he conducted mass was better than when Fiorentina trounced Juve 4-2
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
In what way are his 'concessions' not embarrassingly modest?
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.
@paulwaugh: The endorsement he didn't want? French FN's Marine Le Pen: "I am so happy to see David Cameron doing in the UK what I want to do for France"
Quite a good reference to counter those who say the renegotiation doesn't amount to a hill of beans, though.
In reality, almost every single reaction has been entirely predictable and tells you about the preconceptions of the person concerned, not about the renegotiation itself.
Is she actually referring to the renegotiation?
I will pocket that last statement Richard for its ironic value!
@paulwaugh: The endorsement he didn't want? French FN's Marine Le Pen: "I am so happy to see David Cameron doing in the UK what I want to do for France"
She's apparently the least crazy Le Pen, if it helps?
“Least” or “less”? How many of them are there?
Well, there's the daddy Jean-Marie Le Pen of course, and just fromUK reports, Marine's niece, Marion Le Pen, apparently takes more after her granddad than her aunt and is already significant party figure.
I can't understand the fuss about Sunday trading, TBH, and don't much care.
I'm amazed at how much shopping people are doing all the time. Where can they possibly put it all? What do they want it for? Look at the numbers of people in clothes shops, for instance. And yet when you walk the streets so many people are so appallingly dressed looking as if (a) they haven't bought new clothes in years; and/or (b) as if they got dressed in the dark or, in some cases, as if they fell into their wardrobes with glue on their bodies.
They could do with mirrors, in some cases, rear view ones.
On the other hand, some of us would prefer to be comfortable. I tried following fashion for a fortnight when I was 18, and had a gf who was very much into fashion.
I soon realised how much she and her friends were getting fleeced for by trying to follow fashion (e.g. jackets by a Japenese designer whose name I cannot remember, fakes of which were available on Camden Market, which cost much less and didn't disintegrate after a few weeks).
Since then, I've much preferred comfort over style. Why does anyone want to do the same as everyone else anyway, especially when it costs them such a great amount of money? Worse are the football shirts: people spending a fortune to advertise a business and also look the same as so many others.
Although I'll admit that a tailored jacket can be extremely comfortable, but also very expensive. At the moment I'm wearing Craghooppers trousers, a Helly Hansen base layer and a thin pair of base layer socks. Would you bet you're more comfortable than me?
Yes - being comfortable and being stylish/elegant are not incompatible. I can't abide achingly fashionable clothes and shoes which look and are uncomfortable. Being elegant is also about wearing the right clothes for the right occasion.
In public one should try and avoid being an eyesore.
Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...
Just back from Pope watching in Florence. It is difficult to imagine a more inspirational figure. I think the atmosphere around the stadium where he conducted mass was better than when Fiorentina trounced Juve 4-2
Yes, he's a truly impressive figure. Saying this as an atheist, he seems to be returning moral authority to the Catholic Church that it had lost over the child abuse scandals and cover-ups.
So you'll have no issue with telling us which part of Hannan's verdict on the 'renegotiation points' you disagree with then.
He starts from the position that he wants us to leave the EU completely. Unsurprisingly, therefore, he's not satisfied with a renegotiation which is not, and never has been, about leaving the EU completely.
So I don't disagree with his verdict, in the sense that, from his point of view, it's correct. I wouldn't have needed to know anything about what Cameron was going to say, or to read Dan Hannan's response, to be able to predict that in advance.
Edit: I'm not knocking Dan, by the way. I think he's one of most thoughtful and persuasive of the Leavers, and a very nice and engaging guy.
Iain Martin has an interesting article arguing things might be getting a little trickier for the SNP, faced as they are with the difficult choices of government.
Iain Martin has been saying the honeymoon is over for the snp since 2007
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
In what way are his 'concessions' not embarrassingly modest?
Well, we don't know what he's going to get yet. So, they are going to be somewhere on the "modest" to "embarrassingly modest" scale depending on how much of the speech he gets.
Cameron's four measures appear meagre in the extreme ..... suddenly it seems appreciably more likely that the nation will vote to leave in the referendum next June.
Very useful link for the upcoming Spanish GE polling. PP clearly on the rise this month with PSOE falling back. A PP/Ciudadanos coalition looking more likely which would be excellent for economic stability. Interestingly the Catalonia push for independence seems to be uniting the rest of Spain in favour of the centre-right parties.
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
My prediction that David Cameron would secure a modest (but not embarrassingly modest) set of concessions for Britain from the rest of the EU and that he will then advocate a Remain vote with measured enthusiasm is looking fairly good this evening.
But that's not up there with your most Nostradamus-like predictions, and you've had far more than most.
LD in OWR got 5.7% of council wards within the constitency at GE2015, so deposit saving could be based on a slight bump in support plus GOTV in their stronger ward of Coldwell, and hoping UKIP aren't a threat to Labour.
UKIP strength relative to Heywood & Middleton: votes running at 1300-1700 across all H&M wards, 1100-1400 across 7/9 wards in OWR but down to 500 in Coldwell and below 300 in Werneth, so potential by-election vote share around 1/3 lower than H&M. Easily out vote Tories 5:3 in the locals - by-election circumstances, even with their current weakness should mean easy 2nd
Tories - 3rd...
Labour - I can only find hagiography of McMahon, lots of positive vibes, seems well regarded locally and looks good to blunt UKIP advance, carpetgate notwithstanding. I think he will have decent incumbency bonus and drive not too bad a turnout. Still liking the cut of his gib - and looking forward to his price on next Labour leader market, with Labour as they are I'd go as low as 40 on day 1, newbie or not - supported Kendall which by rights should be a no-no but think he will re-position as centrist / fresh/ communitarian and definitely ambitious enough. Could he use parliament to jump back as Manchester mayor, which was his previous presumed route? - tbh, think that train may have passed and even though he is out to 20/1 (from 4/1 fav at one point), I'd leave it.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
What would it take for Cameron to get change that isn't characterised as "modest"?
Some would not be happy unless the UK severed all ties with the EU and dropped a bomb on Brussels as we whistled goodbye. Others think it should be Strasbourg…
I can't understand the fuss about Sunday trading, TBH, and don't much care.
I'm amazed at how much shopping people are doing all the time. Where can they possibly put it all? What do they want it for? Look at the numbers of people in clothes shops, for instance. And yet when you walk the streets so many people are so appallingly dressed looking as if (a) they haven't bought new clothes in years; and/or (b) as if they got dressed in the dark or, in some cases, as if they fell into their wardrobes with glue on their bodies.
They could do with mirrors, in some cases, rear view ones.
On the other hand, some of us would prefer to be comfortable. I tried following fashion for a fortnight when I was 18, and had a gf who was very much into fashion.
I soon realised how much she and her friends were getting fleeced for by trying to follow fashion (e.g. jackets by a Japenese designer whose name I cannot remember, fakes of which were available on Camden Market, which cost much less and didn't disintegrate after a few weeks).
Since then, I've much preferred comfort over style. Why does anyone want to do the same as everyone else anyway, especially when it costs them such a great amount of money? Worse are the football shirts: people spending a fortune to advertise a business and also look the same as so many others.
Although I'll admit that a tailored jacket can be extremely comfortable, but also very expensive. At the moment I'm wearing Craghooppers trousers, a Helly Hansen base layer and a thin pair of base layer socks. Would you bet you're more comfortable than me?
Yes - being comfortable and being stylish/elegant are not incompatible. I can't abide achingly fashionable clothes and shoes which look and are uncomfortable. Being elegant is also about wearing the right clothes for the right occasion.
In public one should try and avoid being an eyesore.
Methinks we'd better not meet at a PB meet then.
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...
Nonsense: you look ideally dressed for a walker. Perhaps we could have a PB meet in one of the better Cumbrian pubs. That would be fun.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.
Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".
What an embarrassingly modest ambition. You should be campaigning for zero coverage whatsoever.
Ok this is in small size as I am only doing it because I am bored and these (Farage -6.5 in Thanet) bets often prove unwise
Labour win by 0-5 8/1 5-10 6/1 10-15 5/2 15-20 9/4 20-25 5/1 25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
I'll take a tenner on 25+ if you're offering?
My main interest in betting tends numerological not financial (though the last Christmas party at the dogs easily covered the entry and chicken in a bucket), but I would favour 20-25 at the prices given.
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.
Colour me a cynic but this is probably the only thing I disagree with you on: I don't think there's some secret eurosceptic meat behind the scenes.
Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".
Yes count me in. I was much more energised by Scottish Independence and even AV.
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.
Colour me a cynic but this is probably the only thing I disagree with you on: I don't think there's some secret eurosceptic meat behind the scenes.
What we see is what we'll get, and probably less.
Simple question, can you envisage any circumstances in which you'd vote to remain in the EU, if so, what are those circumstances?
Which goes to show that Cameron has a really strong hand - if he has the balls to play it. "Give us meaningful reform - or I recommned LEAVE. And the country will follow my instruction...and then the EU is fecked. Your call guys. And don't try to fob me off. That will make me angry. And that is the quickest way to the exit..."
I can only hope to God that this is being said behind closed doors in Brussels...
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.
Putting aside the ridiculous OTT criticism of Corbyn on Remembrance Sunday from Mail/Sun, it is interesting how this "story" about the Corbyn vs PM and his VIP lunch has been filling up my timelines / twitter feed, despite also not being true.
When will people learn, yes you Huffington Post and alike, you can't believe everything you read on twitter.
Cameron's four measures appear meagre in the extreme ..... suddenly it seems appreciably more likely that the nation will vote to leave in the referendum next June.
Cameron has the Midas touch to voters. He will get enough of it to proclaim success and win the vote.
I'm still thinking 55/45. Which is awful because it will make me one of the 45.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.
Excellent. I think we also had a little chat about Bath - what with there being no incumbency...?
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
I did my best to give you feedback from the ground. I did report that the Home Secretary was going on from Torbay to Yeovil, which looked a bit "Huh? Yeovil's in play?" at the time. I did report back later that those who had been to Cheltenham reported that it was looking very, very good - and that Yeovil was indeed in range. I did relay how wretched Miliband was on the doorstep - and that the SNP link to Labour was utterly toxic. And I did say my best guess was Torbay would have a Tory majority of 2,000 - 3,000 (it was slightly over 4,000 on the day).
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
I should thank you: I topped up on Cheltenham on the back of your post saying it was looking very, very good.
Excellent. I think we also had a little chat about Bath - what with there being no incumbency...?
Yes, I was very bullish on Bath. Also because it was a posh English spa town and there's been a track record of similar areas - Winchester, Harrogate and Richmond - moving the same way over previous years.
I didn't see the LDs holding it with their incumbent MP standing down.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
What Mike was privy to about the true state of the LibDem vote is one of the more fascinating questions yet to be aired...
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
We were expecting the Lib Dems to put up a rearguard to rival Rorke's Drift, what we got was a defence that rivalled the Maginot Line.
Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject.
Why don't you join party Scrapheap and I have set up, we've got four members so far, it's called
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"
Ah, one nation libertarianism, that nice well meaning rightist tiny government nightmare of Christmas future! The new Corbynistas!
Much as I get on alright with you people, I'll take my chances with proper nasty party Toryism any day of the week.
Yours - strictly Keynesian, natural party of broader fiscal responsibility because we actually want to do stuff with the money we save, pragmatic about the state's role, socially liberal but slowly slowly catchee monkey and take the electorate with us, not obsessed by class Labour.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
For me, the final confirmation that the Ashcroft polls were way too flattering to the Lib Dems was that North Cornwall poll about a week before Election Day.
That poll showed on the standard "how would you vote?" question that the Tories had a comfortable lead, yet on the "thinking specifically about your local area" question, there was a big turnaround and the Lib Dems were ahead. But, that close to an election, anyone who was genuinely intending to vote LibDem on the day would surely be answering that way to ANY voting question by that point.
In truth, a lot of people don't vote in a General Election "thinking specifically about their local area" - they vote on national issues.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.
Nonsense: you look ideally dressed for a walker. Perhaps we could have a PB meet in one of the better Cumbrian pubs. That would be fun.
You should avoid Cumbria if I'm there. They decide to refill the lakes every time I visit.
The Dark Peak of Derbyshire's a different matter. A PB meet on Kinder Scout per'aps? I can just imagine SeanT chatting up a sheep, Richard Navabi up to his neck in the peat, OGH floundering in Kinder Downfall (which is actually an upfall most of the time) or iSam standing on the edge of the Madwoman's Stones as he tries to place bets with passing walkers.
Oh, and Bev stuck on Jacob's Ladder with a broken high heel on one of her shoes. Or TSE sitting at the edge of a stream as he tries to wash a speck of dirt off his.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.
Ditto. - But would anyone listen to YouGov a second time?
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I wonder how many vote swaps actually happen. It must be a sore temptation to just renege within the privacy of the polling booth. Does one take a picture of the ballot paper?
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
What Mike was privy to about the true state of the LibDem vote is one of the more fascinating questions yet to be aired...
He was quite confident on here and on the podcasts that they'd clock at least 20-25 seats.
I've just taken the 5/6 on the LDs to save their deposit in Oldham West.
If anyone wants to offer me some more, I'd be glad to it.
Pulpstar?
Nah, I'm happily on the other side of that with Ladbrokes Thanks
Truly incredible that people on here are backing opposite sides of a two way mkt at 5/6 w LADBROKES rather than at Evens w each other
I shake my head in despair
I would have happily taken it with Pulpstar instead :-)
Come on isam, you want to be other side of the trade with me?
(I would point out that I lost a bet on the LDs in Cambridge, if that helps )
Indeed, don't you have substantial form in overestimating the Lib Dems? I seem to remember you backing 11-20 seats quite heavily...
I made a handsome sum in May on Robert's tip of Skybet at 16/1 on LD seats in the 0-10 band.
I took too much notice of OGH and Mark Senior's optimism to bet against the Lib Dems.
There's your mistake right there.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
Mike gave us all a huge tip off that the Lib Dems were in trouble when he mentioned his vote swap in Twickenham.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
We were expecting the Lib Dems to put up a rearguard to rival Rorke's Drift, what we got was a defence that rivalled the Maginot Line.
Heh, I'm going to use that in a thread.
Excellent. It reminded more of the 'exercise' that the inept base commander loses in Buffalo Soldiers.
Does anyone else want to join my new "Who Gives A Flying Fuck About The EU" campaign?
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".
Most of the British public would join you I'm sure, but they have an excuse, as they're completely politically unengaged and more interested in The X-factor. For someone interested enough in politics to post on a political betting forum, there is really no excuse to casually dismiss an organisation which holds legal supremacy over our own Government and from which a conservative 75% of our laws originate. Personally I think you're being disingenuous, possibly because you know that the EU is an anti-democratic farce, but most of your own side support our continued membership.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
''I am willing to predict that Britain will vote Remain and that it will make no difference whatsoever i.e. Britain's role in the EU and the future direction of the EU will continue to be a grumbling sore within British politics.''
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
I'm hoping the polls show Leave ahead of Remain at least some point. It would be nice for the EU to have a similar reaction to UK politicians towards Scotland when that happened during IndyRef.
Ditto. - But would anyone listen to YouGov a second time?
But how would a 'Vow' situation even work? How would the EU even offer worthwhile concessions to a Government that hasn't even asked for them?
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
One further thought: that letter to Tusk is not the meat of the requests. It reads like a speech, not a diplomatic statement of position. It's for public consumption.
Yes. I suspect the renegotiation will be rather more than is in the letter.
I'd expect the renegotiation to be almost exactly what's in the letter. I expect that what's taken the time to this point has been finding the things to put in the letter that will be acceptable all round.
If I were David Cameron I'd be trying to make sure that he keeps as many wait-and-seers as possible on board at this stage because they won't be able to get off later. MPs who aren't making a noise now will find it hard later to explain why they didn't do so if David Cameron basically gets everything he's asked for now.
Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.
As hissy fits go not quite in the same league as the MP who lost out on the chance to buy a pair of £200 Star Wars shoes. She's also from the North West I think.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
Simon Danczuk pulls out of China trip because organisers wouldn't upgrade him to business class
I hope everyone in Rochdale is made aware of this development. Not great publicity for Labour with Oldham West being a neighbouring constituency.
Aww, but he's a big and important person. An MP no less. Why should he be expected to slum it like the little people on a freebie trip to China?
No doubt someone will suggest that his time would be better spent in Business Class, but since he's merely a Labour backbencher, it's hardly a valid argument.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
The odds on 0-20 can't have been that much shorter?
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
That was a very sensible prediction and you were the most bearish on the LDs here.
No one seriously thought they'd drop below 10 seats. But also, no one also really knew what would happen to them.
At the BES polling day seminar in London a couple of forecasts had the LDs on zero or one seat. And everyone dismissed that of course.
I'd expect the renegotiation to be almost exactly what's in the letter. I expect that what's taken the time to this point has been finding the things to put in the letter that will be acceptable all round.
If I were David Cameron I'd be trying to make sure that he keeps as many wait-and-seers as possible on board at this stage because they won't be able to get off later. MPs who aren't making a noise now will find it hard later to explain why they didn't do so if David Cameron basically gets everything he's asked for now.
I think everyone on here is wrong about the renegotiation.
I don't think there will even be an outline in place by this time next year. I think that the negotitations with the other 27 countries will be significantly more tortuous than is expected. That being said, I think newly Eurosceptic countries (Finland, Denmark), plus places where there are Eurosceptic parties challenging (such as the Netherlands), mean we will probably have more support than people think.
My view is that it will require Germany emphasising firmly the financial consequences of our departure to some of the other countries to finally secure any kind of agreement.
And because every government in the EU seeks to be re-elected, and has their own interests they wish to protect, the end agreement could look absolutely nothing like the current plan.
In other words, the idea this is all "stage managed" is ridiculous.
It is also by no means impossible that we cannot secure the agreement of all 27 other EU states, and that therefore David Cameron backs exit.
I may revisit my blogpost from the time. I think I said I couldn't see the LDs going below 17 seats.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
The bottom line was, there is simply no way a party can lose two-thirds of its vote, yet magically not drop at all in the seats they held. Forget all the talk of incumbency votes and whatnot - it just wasn't arithmetically possible unless the Lib Dems were to drop into minus scores in about half of seats or something.
I factored that in. In fact, I ran a model back in April that applied a UNS to the LD voteshare in their existing seats based on them only holding onto 65% of their 2010 votes.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
I produced a model showing seat numbers for every nationwide vote share. At the 8% mark it had nine seats.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
Bloody Cambridge cost me a little on the night !
I bet against the LDs in about 25 constituencies. The only one I lost was Cambridge!
I was at university with a Labour member and activist in Cambridge. He was deeply unimpressed with the Labour candidate, and thought Huppert would walk it. He was as surprised as anyone - despite three weeks of constant campaigning - that Cambridge was won.
Comments
But then again they are 1000 on Betfair whereas UKIP are around 9s, implying UKIP 1-6 is a stonker.
UKIP 1-6 feels about right to me. Tories at 1000-1 for the seat perhaps a bit long. Not going into that as a backer or layer though.
Also when you buy something new change the buttons. They are invariably cheap and nasty. New nice buttons will in subtle ways improve the outfit no end.
Easily done though: OGH has a fantastic track record. However, we must all be wary of overconfidence in our own team.
Not everyone else will see them as we do.
I bought a 'bollocks to Blair' polo shirt over 10 years ago for the hunting ban protests.
It still embarrasses me now even though it's just sitting in a draw, and is so dreadfully dated.
I will pocket that last statement Richard for its ironic value!
My profile pic shows the sort of look I favour. I call it 'scruffy nautical walker'. Some replace an 'l' in that with an 'n' ...
So I don't disagree with his verdict, in the sense that, from his point of view, it's correct. I wouldn't have needed to know anything about what Cameron was going to say, or to read Dan Hannan's response, to be able to predict that in advance.
Edit: I'm not knocking Dan, by the way. I think he's one of most thoughtful and persuasive of the Leavers, and a very nice and engaging guy.
Ms Le Pen's perhaps comes closest, actually.
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 9/1
Labour lose 8/1
Very useful link for the upcoming Spanish GE polling. PP clearly on the rise this month with PSOE falling back. A PP/Ciudadanos coalition looking more likely which would be excellent for economic stability. Interestingly the Catalonia push for independence seems to be uniting the rest of Spain in favour of the centre-right parties.
LD in OWR got 5.7% of council wards within the constitency at GE2015, so deposit saving could be based on a slight bump in support plus GOTV in their stronger ward of Coldwell, and hoping UKIP aren't a threat to Labour.
UKIP strength relative to Heywood & Middleton: votes running at 1300-1700 across all H&M wards, 1100-1400 across 7/9 wards in OWR but down to 500 in Coldwell and below 300 in Werneth, so potential by-election vote share around 1/3 lower than H&M. Easily out vote Tories 5:3 in the locals - by-election circumstances, even with their current weakness should mean easy 2nd
Tories - 3rd...
Labour - I can only find hagiography of McMahon, lots of positive vibes, seems well regarded locally and looks good to blunt UKIP advance, carpetgate notwithstanding. I think he will have decent incumbency bonus and drive not too bad a turnout. Still liking the cut of his gib - and looking forward to his price on next Labour leader market, with Labour as they are I'd go as low as 40 on day 1, newbie or not - supported Kendall which by rights should be a no-no but think he will re-position as centrist / fresh/ communitarian and definitely ambitious enough. Could he use parliament to jump back as Manchester mayor, which was his previous presumed route? - tbh, think that train may have passed and even though he is out to 20/1 (from 4/1 fav at one point), I'd leave it.
And, oh the temerity, I did suggest to JackW that he was too low on the SNP and too high on the LibDems. I could do no more guys!
Not sure.
I think there will a period where remain slides below Leave, especially as we get closer to the actual vote.
It will be interesting to see what the elite in London and Brussels do then.
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 13/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 9/4
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
It will campaign for a limit (say, about an hour a week) of how much coverage each media outlet can give to this deathly dull subject. As well as campaigning for internment for any of the evangelists on either side who claim this is "the most important decision of our lifetimes".
I think 22.5% is the largest overround I've ever bet on.
You'd make a good bookie, isam
"The fiscally dry, socially liberal, not obsessed by the gays and the EU new Tory party"
What we see is what we'll get, and probably less.
Defensive earlies while flying solo!
I can only hope to God that this is being said behind closed doors in Brussels...
You're on
New prices
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 12/5
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
Putting aside the ridiculous OTT criticism of Corbyn on Remembrance Sunday from Mail/Sun, it is interesting how this "story" about the Corbyn vs PM and his VIP lunch has been filling up my timelines / twitter feed, despite also not being true.
When will people learn, yes you Huffington Post and alike, you can't believe everything you read on twitter.
I'm still thinking 55/45. Which is awful because it will make me one of the 45.
I was like, if Saint Vince is in trouble, the Lib Dems must be fecked^
The high point of it all for me was when the boss of ComRes disbelieving his own poll which showed the Lib Dems getting absolutely marmalised in the South West.
^Even then I wasn't expecting the carnage that came for the Lib Dems.
There is the 20th / 21st November written off then...
I didn't see the LDs holding it with their incumbent MP standing down.
But, oh boy, did they. My theory is that incumbency and local factors became irrelevant and they basically were subject to UNS the same way as everyone else.
Heh, I'm going to use that in a thread.
Much as I get on alright with you people, I'll take my chances with proper nasty party Toryism any day of the week.
Yours - strictly Keynesian, natural party of broader fiscal responsibility because we actually want to do stuff with the money we save, pragmatic about the state's role, socially liberal but slowly slowly catchee monkey and take the electorate with us, not obsessed by class Labour.
Loved the pilot
That poll showed on the standard "how would you vote?" question that the Tories had a comfortable lead, yet on the "thinking specifically about your local area" question, there was a big turnaround and the Lib Dems were ahead. But, that close to an election, anyone who was genuinely intending to vote LibDem on the day would surely be answering that way to ANY voting question by that point.
In truth, a lot of people don't vote in a General Election "thinking specifically about their local area" - they vote on national issues.
Is that it!!
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/10/uk-britain-eu-conservatives-idUKKCN0SZ23B20151110
The Dark Peak of Derbyshire's a different matter. A PB meet on Kinder Scout per'aps? I can just imagine SeanT chatting up a sheep, Richard Navabi up to his neck in the peat, OGH floundering in Kinder Downfall (which is actually an upfall most of the time) or iSam standing on the edge of the Madwoman's Stones as he tries to place bets with passing walkers.
Oh, and Bev stuck on Jacob's Ladder with a broken high heel on one of her shoes. Or TSE sitting at the edge of a stream as he tries to wash a speck of dirt off his.
On that model they ended up with... *drumroll*... eight seats.
Surely a very slow boat could be organised
If I were David Cameron I'd be trying to make sure that he keeps as many wait-and-seers as possible on board at this stage because they won't be able to get off later. MPs who aren't making a noise now will find it hard later to explain why they didn't do so if David Cameron basically gets everything he's asked for now.
Personally, I thought the LibDems would get 10.0-10.5%, and would end up at 13-14 seats. The 4-1 on 11-20 therefore looked like an absolute no-brainer.
Oldham by election
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 12/5
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
No doubt someone will suggest that his time would be better spent in Business Class, but since he's merely a Labour backbencher, it's hardly a valid argument.
No one seriously thought they'd drop below 10 seats. But also, no one also really knew what would happen to them.
At the BES polling day seminar in London a couple of forecasts had the LDs on zero or one seat. And everyone dismissed that of course.
Bad case of verbal Diarrhea perhaps
I don't think there will even be an outline in place by this time next year. I think that the negotitations with the other 27 countries will be significantly more tortuous than is expected. That being said, I think newly Eurosceptic countries (Finland, Denmark), plus places where there are Eurosceptic parties challenging (such as the Netherlands), mean we will probably have more support than people think.
My view is that it will require Germany emphasising firmly the financial consequences of our departure to some of the other countries to finally secure any kind of agreement.
And because every government in the EU seeks to be re-elected, and has their own interests they wish to protect, the end agreement could look absolutely nothing like the current plan.
In other words, the idea this is all "stage managed" is ridiculous.
It is also by no means impossible that we cannot secure the agreement of all 27 other EU states, and that therefore David Cameron backs exit.
I was at university with a Labour member and activist in Cambridge. He was deeply unimpressed with the Labour candidate, and thought Huppert would walk it. He was as surprised as anyone - despite three weeks of constant campaigning - that Cambridge was won.