politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the parties should be looking for in Oldham

PB coverup of the SENSATIONAL Tory surge in Scotland.

Moses_ said:

Whoa!!
I think I left my stomach on the previous thread.....

Agreed, some of us do not want to get vertigo and dizzyness riding from thread to thread on a Friday night, I think the last one must have been one of the shortest in PB history

For me, I think the key argument against a UKIP win is that, even in the 2014 European elections (which is surely close to UKIP's absolute ceiling of support even in a best-case scenario), they still "only" got 30% in Oldham. That's before you even consider the damage Carswell's votes in Parliament are doing to UKIP's Red Kipper appeal.

My expectation is that UKIP themselves probably can't get over 35-40% at absolute max, and they would need a strong LibDem or Green candidate to take extra chunks out of the Labour vote for them to have a chance.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting.

Are you known these days as Two Threads Eagles ??

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/662773499921088512

Why do I feel a bar chart is incoming from the Lib Dems?

MikeSmithson said:

htts://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/662773499921088512

If he can say that seriously without cracking, he's missed his calling as a deadpan comedian.

Good night all.

I did read this one! Actually I do usually read David's thread headers

One small snag, it was Heywood and Middleton that John Bickley almost won last year, not Wythenshawe... And at the end of the Conservative section, is it supposed to say 'a consequence of Conservative success' or 'conservative failure'?

Maybe I've misread

And that's two snags

These prices are almost identical to those in Heywood and Middleton... Ukip 8/1... I can't see it, it seems like an easy labour hold... Hope I'm wrong and Ukip win but can't find a bet personally

The derivatives may offer some value perhaps

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

PB coverup of the SENSATIONAL Tory surge in Scotland.

And the sensational LD surge in Torquay

C'mon - when was the time anyone surged in Torquay? It's like having a surge in Budleigh Salterton or Bognor Regis.

Speaking of surges, I'm noticing many many Jeb Bush commercials on TV.

Tim_B said:

Speaking of surges, I'm noticing many many Jeb Bush commercials on TV.

Which state are you in?

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

slade said:

I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.

Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?

He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin

From PM to porn star!

There was a movie some time back called "Can You Keep It Up For a Week". Apparently many folks thought it was a porn movie when in fact it turned out to be whether the guy could keep a job.

I expect there were a lot of demands for refunds

I have been tied up for most of the day and we should have published the local election results earlier.

Most PB users don't open the comments

Tim_B said:

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

PB coverup of the SENSATIONAL Tory surge in Scotland.

And the sensational LD surge in Torquay

C'mon - when was the time anyone surged in Torquay? It's like having a surge in Budleigh Salterton or Bognor Regis.

Careful, Mr B., there is a very big, and young, Polish community in Bognor Regis these days. Bexhill or even Worthing, both known for being God's waiting rooms, might have been better examples for your purpose.

MikeSmithson said:

Tim_B said:

Speaking of surges, I'm noticing many many Jeb Bush commercials on TV.

Which state are you in?

Fairly sober, most of the time.

I live in the north eastern suburbs of Atlanta GA.

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

slade said:

I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.

Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?

He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin

From PM to porn star!

There was a movie some time back called "Can You Keep It Up For a Week". Apparently many folks thought it was a porn movie when in fact it turned out to be whether the guy could keep a job.

I expect there were a lot of demands for refunds

Did you get yours?

MikeSmithson said:

I have been tied up for most of the day and we should have published the local election results earlier.

Most PB users don't open the comments

Harsh truth. In fact, we even know from surveys that PB users are politically representative of the nation, which you would never guess from down here.

MikeSmithson said:

I have been tied up for most of the day and we should have published the local election results earlier.

Most PB users don't open the comments

I understand why they are often posted like this, as it gets them on the record, but doesn't waste an opportunity to have a more content-heavy thread put up. People that don't venture below the line are missing out!

We now have the lineup for Tuesday's GOP debate on Fox Business -

Prime time Debate - Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Paul.

Happy hour debate - Santorum, Christie, Huckabee, Jindal.

Not debating at all - Graham, Pataki, Gilmore

HurstLlama said:

Tim_B said:

HurstLlama said:

Tim_B said:

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

PB coverup of the SENSATIONAL Tory surge in Scotland.

And the sensational LD surge in Torquay

C'mon - when was the time anyone surged in Torquay? It's like having a surge in Budleigh Salterton or Bognor Regis.

Careful, Mr B., there is a very big, and young, Polish community in Bognor Regis these days. Bexhill or even Worthing, both known for being God's waiting rooms, might have been better examples for your purpose.

So we've established that big, young, Polish folks can surge, whereas oldies in Bexhill or Worthing cannot?

Sounds about right. Mr. B. To "surge" is to increase suddenly and powerfully. Oldies tend increase, if at all, with proper planning and gently, but perhaps sustain the peak longer as a result.

Which reminds me of a bit of graffiti I once read:

"Age and experience will always triumph over youth and energy"

Underneath which was written in an obviously feminine hand:

"Dream on, grandad"

HurstLlama said:

Tim_B said:

HurstLlama said:

Tim_B said:

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

PB coverup of the SENSATIONAL Tory surge in Scotland.

And the sensational LD surge in Torquay

C'mon - when was the time anyone surged in Torquay? It's like having a surge in Budleigh Salterton or Bognor Regis.

Careful, Mr B., there is a very big, and young, Polish community in Bognor Regis these days. Bexhill or even Worthing, both known for being God's waiting rooms, might have been better examples for your purpose.

So we've established that big, young, Polish folks can surge, whereas oldies in Bexhill or Worthing cannot?

Sounds about right. Mr. B. To "surge" is to increase suddenly and powerfully. Oldies tend increase, if at all, with proper planning and gently, but perhaps sustain the peak longer as a result.

Which reminds me of a bit of graffiti I once read:

"Age and experience will always triumph over youth and energy"

Underneath which was written in an obviously feminine hand:

"Dream on, grandad"

Actually I'm a frequent and successful surger

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

slade said:

I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.

Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?

He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin

From PM to porn star!

There was a movie some time back called "Can You Keep It Up For a Week". Apparently many folks thought it was a porn movie when in fact it turned out to be whether the guy could keep a job.

I expect there were a lot of demands for refunds

Did you get yours?

Still appealing!

Has anyone other than me received a "message from beyond the grave" from Simon Regan with a lot of old Scallywag articles?

Am I the only PBer to be dismayed when I read the words "The Donald Brind Friday Column" as I did above his piece yesterday? This appears to treat him with a degree of authority and legitimacy as well as permanence, not even claimed by the likes of site owner OGH and in the eyes of many of us, judging by comments levelled at some of his previous contributions, certainly not as yet earned.

peter_from_putney said:

Am I the only PBer to be dismayed when I read the words "The Donald Brind Friday Column" as I did above his piece yesterday? This appears to treat him with a degree of authority and legitimacy as well as permanence, not even claimed by the likes of site owner OGH and in the eyes of many of us, judging by comments levelled at some of his previous contributions, certainly not as yet earned.

It serves as a useful health warning

Dair said:

The Farron article in the MEN mentioned above is absolutely comical

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/lib-dem-leader-tim-farron-10399785#ICID=sharebar_twitter

When the leader of the barely registering a vote, seldom saving a deposit, dead parrot party which has never come better than third in the seat and indeed came fourth behind the BNP in 2001 is claiming another party's "reason to exist" has gone, perhaps he should be looking in a mirror first.

That he could even suggest a party that recorded 3.7% of the vote in May and lost their deposit could be remotely meaningful in the by-election doesn't actually come across as desperation. It's delusional fantasy.

OFCOM really have to get into gear and award them minor party status. Wasting coverage on their irrelevant nonsense does the electorate a dis-service.

The coverage of the LDs on the BBC does seem to be drastically reduced. Often it is just Tory/Labour on Daily Politics, for example.

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

Am I the only PBer to be dismayed when I read the words "The Donald Brind Friday Column" as I did above his piece yesterday? This appears to treat him with a degree of authority and legitimacy as well as permanence, not even claimed by the likes of site owner OGH and in the eyes of many of us, judging by comments levelled at some of his previous contributions, certainly not as yet earned.

It serves as a useful health warning

Babelfish translates 'Donald Brind' into English as "Don't read"

Given Russia has now stopped flights to Egypt, is the UK government going to receive any plaudits for having cancelled its flights a day earlier?

I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.

It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?

In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.

These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?

Pulpstar said:

@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?

Indeed. But the interview went a little far IMO. I'd need to listen to it again, but there seemed little acknowledgement that the government's aim was to try to keep people safe. It wasn't the government doing it casually for no reason.

The important immediate thing is to try to ensure we get our citizens back safely. Humphreys seemed unable to grasp that.

It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.

JosiasJessop said:

Given Russia has now stopped flights to Egypt, is the UK government going to receive any plaudits for having cancelled its flights a day earlier?

I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.

It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?

In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.

These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?

Not my period, or my area, but I seem to remember some Victorian gunboat diplomacy involving Egypt (Gladstone?). Seems to have had lawless elements since ever, really.

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Given Russia has now stopped flights to Egypt, is the UK government going to receive any plaudits for having cancelled its flights a day earlier?

I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.

It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?

In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.

These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?

Not my period, or my area, but I seem to remember some Victorian gunboat diplomacy involving Egypt (Gladstone?). Seems to have had lawless elements since ever, really.

You're probably referring to Agadir - which was Morocco

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agadir_Crisis

Origin of the term "gunboat diplomacy" I believe

RobD said:

Charles said:

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Given Russia has now stopped flights to Egypt, is the UK government going to receive any plaudits for having cancelled its flights a day earlier?

I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.

It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?

In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.

These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?

Not my period, or my area, but I seem to remember some Victorian gunboat diplomacy involving Egypt (Gladstone?). Seems to have had lawless elements since ever, really.

You're probably referring to Agadir - which was Morocco

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agadir_Crisis

Origin of the term "gunboat diplomacy" I believe

Wasn't it that guy in Greece that we sent the navy in to protect, sometime in the 1800s?

I think the method was well established, but the term was only applied later!

blackburn63 said:

The key to this seat is postal votes, labour will know exactly who voted for them by post last time and their activists will be out collecting the envelopes. As in Heywood last year, more people will vote ukip in the booths but that won't be enough. UKIP simply don't have the data, resources or infrastructure to win a seat such as this. Not enough people in the party have experience of not just running but winning campaigns, they are well meaning and enthusiastic but very amateurish. And I hate to say it, the fruitcakes love an opportunity when the cameras are around.

Mr Herdson also touches on the fine line between appealing to the WWCs without opening yourself up to allegations of racism, Labour won't hesitate to play dirty if they have to whereas UKIP have to appear to be whiter than white ( that doesn't sound good).

8/1 UKIP isn't value, I make Bickley 25/1 as much as I'd love to see him win.

I agree. UKIP are pretty inept at by elections and GOTV. In May (apart from Essex) they were quite poor at identifying target seats, or knowing where their areas of strength are. The Faragist tendency just do not get it. Suzanne Evans put together a much more professional manifesto but seems sidelined as a threat to the glorious leader.

Labour have picked a good candidate and should win comfortably, the interest will be in percentage shares. I think that the Con and LD parties would rather push UKIP into 3rd or 4th place than tacity support them. I forecast that they will fail to do so.

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?

It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.

Are you thinking of the Libyan evacuation? Our planes were a day later than those of other nations to arrive in Tripoli, but when they did get there there were a few diplomats on board.

From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!

They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.

There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.

David Herdson, thanks for a useful article.

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?

It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.

Are you thinking of the Libyan evacuation? Our planes were a day later than those of other nations to arrive in Tripoli, but when they did get there there were a few diplomats on board.

From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!

They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.

There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.

That was it, thanks.

Was in 2011. Here is a good write up of it http://www.defencetalk.com/british-military-involvement-in-libyan-evacuation-32463/

I remember Hague as foreign secretary at the time was getting it from the media, I thought there must be a reason behind the delay. And so it turned out.

Plato_Says said:

3.7% is hilariously low as a Winning Here base.

AndyJS said:

Has Farron checked the general election result? The LDs got 3.7%.

It doesn't seem on the cards, but getting to the point of saving the deposit is realistic as a target.

Other parties will be attacking Labour over Corbyn. It will be interesting to see how these pan out. UKIP have started with both barrels. The Labour candidate is clearly not a Corbynista so we could see the Labour party washing its dirty linen in public if the Labour candidate wins on an explicitly anti-Corbyn campaign.

Plato_Says said:

3.7% is hilariously low as a Winning Here base.

AndyJS said:

Has Farron checked the general election result? The LDs got 3.7%.

Liberal Democrats, Winning Saving Deposits Here!

Excellent piece, David.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/662899206181535744


I think their deposit is safe

JEO said:

Tim_B said:

We now have the lineup for Tuesday's GOP debate on Fox Business -

Prime time Debate - Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Paul.

Happy hour debate - Santorum, Christie, Huckabee, Jindal.

Not debating at all - Graham, Pataki, Gilmore

Still far too many people. They really need to get it down to five.

Remind me again why they don't simply ask people to cough up to Party funds. They do believe in the price mechanism, don't they?

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/662899206181535744


I think their deposit is safe

Some secondary markets such as LDs deposit, second place, 3rd place, percent shares would be interesting. Are there any up yet?

@STJamesl: Ken livingstone there, condemning the undermining of a labour leader as "completely unacceptable" #Today

@juliahobsbawm: The Soley/Livingstone @BBCr4today interview formed single impression: Meltdown

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Given Russia has now stopped flights to Egypt, is the UK government going to receive any plaudits for having cancelled its flights a day earlier?

I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.

It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?

In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.

These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?

Not my period, or my area, but I seem to remember some Victorian gunboat diplomacy involving Egypt (Gladstone?). Seems to have had lawless elements since ever, really.

I think you're referring to the blockade of 1840, after Mehmet Ali had declared independence from Turkey against the wishes of the Foreign Office. Palmerston was involved, but not Gladstone. Agadir was a later edition based on this earlier model.

Essentially, a compromise was reached which allowed Ali to be the hereditary governor of a semi-independent Egypt (including the Sudan at that time) while the Ottomans officially controlled it for another 60 years. The only problem was, it was a mess.

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

The key to this seat is postal votes, labour will know exactly who voted for them by post last time and their activists will be out collecting the envelopes. As in Heywood last year, more people will vote ukip in the booths but that won't be enough. UKIP simply don't have the data, resources or infrastructure to win a seat such as this. Not enough people in the party have experience of not just running but winning campaigns, they are well meaning and enthusiastic but very amateurish. And I hate to say it, the fruitcakes love an opportunity when the cameras are around.

Mr Herdson also touches on the fine line between appealing to the WWCs without opening yourself up to allegations of racism, Labour won't hesitate to play dirty if they have to whereas UKIP have to appear to be whiter than white ( that doesn't sound good).

8/1 UKIP isn't value, I make Bickley 25/1 as much as I'd love to see him win.

I agree. UKIP are pretty inept at by elections and GOTV. In May (apart from Essex) they were quite poor at identifying target seats, or knowing where their areas of strength are. The Faragist tendency just do not get it. Suzanne Evans put together a much more professional manifesto but seems sidelined as a threat to the glorious leader.

Labour have picked a good candidate and should win comfortably, the interest will be in percentage shares. I think that the Con and LD parties would rather push UKIP into 3rd or 4th place than tacity support them. I forecast that they will fail to do so.

I think UKIP's record is variable. I went to canvass in both Clacton and Rochester. I thought the Clacton campaign was excellent (which you'd expect with Carswell in charge) and Rochester was shambolic. By all accounts, Eastleigh and Heywood & Middleton were good, while Newark was another shambles.

I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.

Scott_P said:

@STJamesl: Ken livingstone there, condemning the undermining of a labour leader as "completely unacceptable" #Today

@juliahobsbawm: The Soley/Livingstone @BBCr4today interview formed single impression: Meltdown

That's rich, coming from a man who spent his entire career undermining multiple Labour leaders. Are the Labour left actually as ghastly and unselfaware as they appear to be, or is it all an act to add the gaiety of the nation?

@Dair - don't forget that while they only have a few MPs, the Liberal Democrats were in government more recently than Labour (and on current trends, are about as likely to win the next general election as Labour are). It is also far from impossible that after May, Labour will not be in power anywhere in the UK* but the Liberal Democrats might still be part of a coalition government in Wales. Moreover they still have - however wrongly - 139 members of the upper house of parliament, where they are the third-largest actual group. So I think for the moment we should go easy on the 'minor party' status.

If after the next election they are making no progress, on the other hand...

*Labour will lose badly in Scotland - I think we all agree on that! Indeed, the interesting question is whether they are certain to come second. Sadiq Khan is not by any means out of the London mayoral race, but at the moment he's not the favourite. That leaves Carwyn Jones in Wales. At the moment I would say his chances of staying in power are no better than even. I think Corbyn will shore up Labour's vote in the valleys, but it could easily come at the cost of forfeiting every other seat they hold including list seats. If that vote moved to the Conservatives instead of Plaid Cymru, a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition in the Bay might be the most viable option. And, given Plaid Cymru is essentially a Socialist party at the moment, after a few years of trying to broaden its appeal, I doubt if many of the fairly small-c conservative voters of Wales outside the Valleys will look kindly on it. I don't know what the odds are, but there seems to be more value in that outcome than in a UKIP gain in Oldham.

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

The key to this seat is postal votes, labour will know exactly who voted for them by post last time and their activists will be out collecting the envelopes. As in Heywood last year, more people will vote ukip in the booths but that won't be enough. UKIP simply don't have the data, resources or infrastructure to win a seat such as this. Not enough people in the party have experience of not just running but winning campaigns, they are well meaning and enthusiastic but very amateurish. And I hate to say it, the fruitcakes love an opportunity when the cameras are around.

Mr Herdson also touches on the fine line between appealing to the WWCs without opening yourself up to allegations of racism, Labour won't hesitate to play dirty if they have to whereas UKIP have to appear to be whiter than white ( that doesn't sound good).

8/1 UKIP isn't value, I make Bickley 25/1 as much as I'd love to see him win.

I agree. UKIP are pretty inept at by elections and GOTV. In May (apart from Essex) they were quite poor at identifying target seats, or knowing where their areas of strength are. The Faragist tendency just do not get it. Suzanne Evans put together a much more professional manifesto but seems sidelined as a threat to the glorious leader.

Labour have picked a good candidate and should win comfortably, the interest will be in percentage shares. I think that the Con and LD parties would rather push UKIP into 3rd or 4th place than tacity support them. I forecast that they will fail to do so.

I think UKIP's record is variable. I went to canvass in both Clacton and Rochester. I thought the Clacton campaign was excellent (which you'd expect with Carswell in charge) and Rochester was shambolic. By all accounts, Eastleigh and Heywood & Middleton were good, while Newark was another shambles.

I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.

Incidentally, it was assumed by all parties. Labour most of all.

Stand by my feelings that Farage is good thing for the Tories. Hives off the social conservative malcontents in safe seats, detoxifies the brand and gives the right a fighting chance up north.

richardDodd said:

Mortimer...tis a pity I moved from there .. I had a place round the corner on Egerton Crescent..Try the Admiral Codrington for lunch... two blocks down from Walton Street..

Small world. I used to work next to the Cod!

Am waiting for the orange colour scheme cafe nearby the Cod and Egerton crescent to open - best cinnamon rolls in the world.

blackburn63 said:

Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.

It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.

Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.

John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.

Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.

I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning

Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?

Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here

Sean_F said:

I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.

I remember winding up tim, when he was so smug about the damage UKIP was supposedly doing to the Tories, that UKIP 2.0* would be a bigger danger to Labour in the northern seats they have taken for granted for decades.

I think there was something he used to say about pb.Tories...?

(*I still think UKIP is fobbing us off with version UKIP 1.89....They won't deliver UKIP 2.0 until Farage fecks off though. He still gives the impression of having more interest in hurting the Tories than he does of making UKIP a Westminster electoral force.)

0_o

Mr Fisher told a trade union fringe meeting in 2014: “I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was sat in a room with James Purnell. I sometimes have very violent, bloody nightmares about it actually. Fantasies possibly.”

Scott_P said:

@dylsharpe: Suspended Corbyn advisor Andrew Fisher threatens to hit James Purnell in exclusive video. Top @MrHarryCole scoop > https://t.co/4VFhqetOJo