politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which Irish eyes will be smiling in 2016 – a look at next y
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which Irish eyes will be smiling in 2016 – a look at next years Irish election by Richard Nabavi
2016 is set to be a bumper year for political betting, with the Holyrood, London Mayoral and US Presidential elections coming up. But first there is another contest which should provide some excellent betting opportunities: the Irish General Election. It’s time to start doing our homework.
Comments
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Thirst?0
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Second like the Scottish Tories next May?0
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FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).0 -
Looking at that graph is it knit one and pearl?
A government that is delivering 6% growth should be rebounding quickly in the polls, surely? And yet your graph indicates they are declining. Weird. It suggests to me that those looking at this from outside are unlikely to judge it right.0 -
Surely Edinburgh is in future Tory country, outside of the students? Anyone who wants to live within their means, remain part of the Union and have a nuclear deterrent couldn't vote anything much lese.....Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).0 -
That's a very interesting comment, partly because of the implications.Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
If that is so it utterly reveals the devastation in SLAB fortunes. It also raises the question of what happens if SLAB now divert from policies designed to appeal to south of the border voters. And SLAB now claiming to have autonomy/distinct policy/etc from London may actually be counterproductive.
Interesting.
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The days when Edinburgh voted Tory are a very long time ago now -- most of the big English cities have swung heavily away from the Tories since the early 1990s (not least London), so I don't see why Edinburgh would be any different even without the Tories' specific Scottish problems.Mortimer said:
Surely Edinburgh is in future Tory country, outside of the students? Anyone who wants to live within their means, remain part of the Union and have a nuclear deterrent couldn't vote anything much lese.....Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).0 -
Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
I think Mortimer has a stronger argument than you perhaps allow. Some of the Edinburgh seats feel more like 3- or 4-way contests LD/SNP/Tpry/Lab with the Greens a bit of a wild card.Danny565 said:
The days when Edinburgh voted Tory are a very long time ago now -- most of the big English cities have swung heavily away from the Tories since the early 1990s (not least London), so I don't see why Edinburgh would be any different even without the Tories' specific Scottish problems.Mortimer said:
Surely Edinburgh is in future Tory country, outside of the students? Anyone who wants to live within their means, remain part of the Union and have a nuclear deterrent couldn't vote anything much lese.....Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
On the other hand, it's notable that Ms Davidson is moving from Glasgow to Edinburgh to stand. Rather remarkable given she is (AFAIK) going to be on the list and isn't even standing for the constituency vote.0 -
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.-1 -
I suppose it's possible could in a few years sneak a seat in Edinburgh on 20-25% vote with the opposition split.Carnyx said:
I think Mortimer has a stronger argument than you perhaps allow. Some of the Edinburgh seats feel more like 3- or 4-way contests LD/SNP/Tpry/Lab with the Greens a bit of a wild card.Danny565 said:
The days when Edinburgh voted Tory are a very long time ago now -- most of the big English cities have swung heavily away from the Tories since the early 1990s (not least London), so I don't see why Edinburgh would be any different even without the Tories' specific Scottish problems.Mortimer said:
Surely Edinburgh is in future Tory country, outside of the students? Anyone who wants to live within their means, remain part of the Union and have a nuclear deterrent couldn't vote anything much lese.....Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
On the other hand, it's notable that Ms Davidson is moving from Glasgow to Edinburgh to stand. Rather remarkable given she is (AFAIK) going to be on the list and isn't even standing for the constituency vote.
However, I do still stand by that, demographically, Edinburgh would not be a particularly good fit for the Tories these days even if it was in England, let alone in Scotland.0 -
I would not rule out Edinburgh to become an opposition bastion along with the borders region , but that is one or two elections away.Carnyx said:
I think Mortimer has a stronger argument than you perhaps allow. Some of the Edinburgh seats feel more like 3- or 4-way contests LD/SNP/Tpry/Lab with the Greens a bit of a wild card.Danny565 said:
The days when Edinburgh voted Tory are a very long time ago now -- most of the big English cities have swung heavily away from the Tories since the early 1990s (not least London), so I don't see why Edinburgh would be any different even without the Tories' specific Scottish problems.Mortimer said:
Surely Edinburgh is in future Tory country, outside of the students? Anyone who wants to live within their means, remain part of the Union and have a nuclear deterrent couldn't vote anything much lese.....Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
On the other hand, it's notable that Ms Davidson is moving from Glasgow to Edinburgh to stand. Rather remarkable given she is (AFAIK) going to be on the list and isn't even standing for the constituency vote.
It all depends on how quick the SNP alienate the left wing vote vs whatever right wing vote is in scotland to coalesce around the Tories.0 -
Are you sure it doesn't mean he is allowed to trigger referendums on constitutional changes? In which case your stupid suggestion would never pass...Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
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Do you have any details of "operation ballot stuffing" ?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
IANAE, but I think the two-thirds of seats allows the ruling party to change the constitution without a referendum, if they so choose. Which is why the prospect is watched with alarm by people who do not think Erdogan is not taking Turkey in a good direction.Pauly said:
Are you sure it doesn't mean he is allowed to trigger referendums on constitutional changes? In which case your stupid suggestion would never pass...Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
The current results still shows the Kurds HDP getting 10.7% of the votes and 60 seats. AKP is still projected to win 310 seats.Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
I do not know how much you know of Turkish politics but AKP is in the long line of parties called the Democrat Party of Adnan Menderes. They have always been the largest party since the 50's unless the Military prevented them by banning or overthrowing a legitimate government. It is fashionable to call Erdogan "Islamist". What the hell is he going to be with 98% of the population Muslims.
AKP can best be described as "Muslim Democrats"0 -
He needs 367 seats to change the constitution without a referendum 330 with a referendum, currently he sits on about 371.Pauly said:
Are you sure it doesn't mean he is allowed to trigger referendums on constitutional changes? In which case your stupid suggestion would never pass...Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours agoJosiasJessop said:
Do you have any details of "operation ballot stuffing" ?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Conflict News Retweeted Evrensel Gazetesi
#Turkey military shuts down road to #Lice due to “IED threat”, blocking ~200 from reaching polls - @HetavRojan
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted cumhuriyet.com.tr
BREAKING: Electricity has been cut off in districts of Sur and Baglar in #Diyarbakır #TurkeyElections - @dilkocer
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted Berîvan Aslan
TURKEY: Reports of foreign observers arrested in #Diyarbakir during #turkeyelections
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
VIDEO: Armed special forces inside polling station in #Cizre. (Prohibited by law) #TurkeyElections - @EPalazzotto
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
PHOTOS: Police presence in #Sur #Turkey #TurkeyElections - @Feleknasuca
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
Voter in #Sur: We are uncomfortable by the presence of masked police. Were the ones raiding our neighbourhood few weeks ago @ConstanzeLetsch
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
PHOTO: Voting conditions for Kurds in Şirnex #Turkey #TurkeyElections
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-police-raid-tv-stations-of-government-critics-1446038925
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-10/turkeys-hdp-party-says-bombing-death-toll-has-risen-to-97/
Bombings, arrests, raids, using the military and police to prevent people in opposition areas to vote, all of course lead to the opposition being crushed.0 -
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland, it probably preferred Ed Miliband to Corbyn (and indeed Miliband won his one seat in Scotland in Edinburgh). Glasgow is a far more Corbyn favourable city but I can't see him picking up any constituencies there although SLab may do a bit better on the listDanny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).0 -
Where do you get these figures from ? If the HDP gets less than 10% then, but they are currently on 10.56% now, many of the 60 seats could go to the AKP.Speedy said:
He needs 367 seats to change the constitution without a referendum 330 with a referendum, currently he sits on about 371.Pauly said:
Are you sure it doesn't mean he is allowed to trigger referendums on constitutional changes? In which case your stupid suggestion would never pass...Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
http://v.24liveblog.com/live/?id=1307714surbiton said:
The current results still shows the Kurds HDP getting 10.7% of the votes and 60 seats. AKP is still projected to win 310 seats.Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
I do not know how much you know of Turkish politics but AKP is in the long line of parties called the Democrat Party of Adnan Menderes. They have always been the largest party since the 50's unless the Military prevented them by banning or overthrowing a legitimate government. It is fashionable to call Erdogan "Islamist". What the hell is he going to be with 98% of the population Muslims.
AKP can best be described as "Muslim Democrats"
"Shouts of "Allah u akbar" and anti-Israel chants in the hall as AK Party Istanbul chairman Selim Temurci thanks God for "this feast of democracy"."
Indeed, democracy was the main course.0 -
Turkish NTV, they have them at 9.9% and falling with 88% counted.surbiton said:
Where do you get these figures from ? If the HDP gets less than 10% then, but they are currently on 10.56% now, many of the 60 seats could go to the AKP.Speedy said:
He needs 367 seats to change the constitution without a referendum 330 with a referendum, currently he sits on about 371.Pauly said:
Are you sure it doesn't mean he is allowed to trigger referendums on constitutional changes? In which case your stupid suggestion would never pass...Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
If they fall bellow 10% then Erdogan can change the constitution by will.0 -
On topic if Scotland were ever to become independent (which I still doubt) the SNP dream scenario would be to become for Scotland what Fianna Fail was in Ireland for so many years0
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Ah, so nothing unusual then.Speedy said:
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours agoJosiasJessop said:
Do you have any details of "operation ballot stuffing" ?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Conflict News Retweeted Evrensel Gazetesi
#Turkey military shuts down road to #Lice due to “IED threat”, blocking ~200 from reaching polls - @HetavRojan
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted cumhuriyet.com.tr
BREAKING: Electricity has been cut off in districts of Sur and Baglar in #Diyarbakır #TurkeyElections - @dilkocer
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted Berîvan Aslan
TURKEY: Reports of foreign observers arrested in #Diyarbakir during #turkeyelections
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
VIDEO: Armed special forces inside polling station in #Cizre. (Prohibited by law) #TurkeyElections - @EPalazzotto
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
PHOTOS: Police presence in #Sur #Turkey #TurkeyElections - @Feleknasuca
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
Voter in #Sur: We are uncomfortable by the presence of masked police. Were the ones raiding our neighbourhood few weeks ago @ConstanzeLetsch
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
PHOTO: Voting conditions for Kurds in Şirnex #Turkey #TurkeyElections
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-police-raid-tv-stations-of-government-critics-1446038925
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-10/turkeys-hdp-party-says-bombing-death-toll-has-risen-to-97/
Bombings, arrests, raids, using the military and police to prevent people in opposition areas to vote, all of course lead to the opposition being crushed.
To be frank, the presence of armed police at ballot boxes in some of these regions can be explained due to the security situation. I would never suggest that the government have helped create that security situation in the first place.
Hmmm. I need to be careful here.0 -
I think the SNP dream scenario is declaring Alex Salmond the supreme ruler of all of scotland.HYUFD said:On topic if Scotland were ever to become independent (which I still doubt) the SNP dream scenario would be to become for Scotland what Fianna Fail was in Ireland for so many years
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And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
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0
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The CNBC debate fallout continues. Even CNN cannot defend the incompetence and bias of the moderators performance, and they really tried hard.
But CNN raised an interesting question which captures the nub of the debate argument - should it be a test of the candidates or an infomercial for them?
The consensus seems to be that tough questions are good - biased questions are not.
Harwood's 2 outright lies - that he didn't correct his NY Times article on the Tax Foundation's critique of Rubio's tax plan, and that the debate format was always to be 2 hours long - have people scratching their heads because they are so obviously and demonstrably false.
Becky Quick's entanglement with Trump, when she alleged (correctly) that he had criticized Zuckerberg's quest to increase the number of H1B visas, which he denied outright and she asked him where she had read that (it was on Trump's website) and she then apologized, was proof of lack of debate prep.
The candidates representatives meet tonight. They apparently have no set agenda but want to hash something out.
The NY Times asked readers to send in the most ridiculous statement from the Republican debate. They did no such thing after the Democratic debate.
The liberal bias of the mainstream media was on full display this week. Outright lies, bias and incompetence don't go down well when exposed. The GOP was the winner and the media the loser after that debate.
What happens from here will be interesting. If the candidates insist on opening and closing statements then these things will get tedious. For the first time the Republican debates (and to a lesser extent the Dems) are getting fabulous ratings, which is unprecedented. That means commercial revenue for the networks, hence the desire for a 3 hour format.
The Republicans have suspended their agreement with NBC for the February debate in Houston. The NBC debate partner is Telemundo. The Republicans need to reach out to Hispanics, so how this is resolved will be interesting.
The CNBC debate debacle could be a game changer after all. As always, time will tell.0 -
Britain wants them to join the EU, due to the old american policy on european matters that if you put many countries inside the EU then that becomes dysfunctional (the reason why the USA wants Britain to remain at all costs inside the EU).perdix said:
And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Germany has proven it doesn't work though, as one country can take control of all the smaller ones to dominate over the whole structure. Germany would like it in purely because they have 3 million turks living in Germany that Merkel would like them to vote for her.
Erdogan would like to resurrect the Ottoman Empire rather than join the EU though.0 -
Thank you TimB0
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Irish elections are a hoot. Always throw up some oddball results due the constituency STV system. There is more a probability than possibility that there will be work done to keep Sinn Fein out so betting may need to be considered accordingly.
On the Russian airliner yesterday, there is a rumour that ISIS big chief Baghdadi is going to pour forth on the issue. Suspect if they have a case to make they are going to wait until everyone else tells their story, then sow doubt.0 -
Call a spade a spade, there has been intimidation and suppression throughout this campaign by the state.JosiasJessop said:
Ah, so nothing unusual then.Speedy said:
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours agoJosiasJessop said:
Do you have any details of "operation ballot stuffing" ?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Conflict News Retweeted Evrensel Gazetesi
#Turkey military shuts down road to #Lice due to “IED threat”, blocking ~200 from reaching polls - @HetavRojan
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted cumhuriyet.com.tr
BREAKING: Electricity has been cut off in districts of Sur and Baglar in #Diyarbakır #TurkeyElections - @dilkocer
Conflict News @Conflicts 6h6 hours ago
Conflict News Retweeted Berîvan Aslan
TURKEY: Reports of foreign observers arrested in #Diyarbakir during #turkeyelections
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
VIDEO: Armed special forces inside polling station in #Cizre. (Prohibited by law) #TurkeyElections - @EPalazzotto
Conflict News @Conflicts 8h8 hours ago
PHOTOS: Police presence in #Sur #Turkey #TurkeyElections - @Feleknasuca
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
Voter in #Sur: We are uncomfortable by the presence of masked police. Were the ones raiding our neighbourhood few weeks ago @ConstanzeLetsch
Conflict News @Conflicts 9h9 hours ago
PHOTO: Voting conditions for Kurds in Şirnex #Turkey #TurkeyElections
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-police-raid-tv-stations-of-government-critics-1446038925
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-10/turkeys-hdp-party-says-bombing-death-toll-has-risen-to-97/
Bombings, arrests, raids, using the military and police to prevent people in opposition areas to vote, all of course lead to the opposition being crushed.
To be frank, the presence of armed police at ballot boxes in some of these regions can be explained due to the security situation. I would never suggest that the government have helped create that security situation in the first place.
Hmmm. I need to be careful here.0 -
The Russians are saying the plane came apart in the air.Y0kel said:Irish elections are a hoot. Always throw up some oddball results due the constituency STV system. There is more a probability than possibility that there will be work done to keep Sinn Fein out so betting may need to be considered accordingly.
On the Russian airliner yesterday, there is a rumour that ISIS big chief Baghdadi is going to pour forth on the issue. Suspect if they have a case to make they are going to wait until everyone else tells their story, then sow doubt.
So are we into explosive decompression caused by catastrophic structural failure due to an engine, structural fatigue, a bomb or a missile?0 -
A debate should be a battle between the candidates with the journalists acting as the referees.Tim_B said:The CNBC debate fallout continues. Even CNN cannot defend the incompetence and bias of the moderators performance, and they really tried hard.
But CNN raised an interesting question which captures the nub of the debate argument - should it be a test of the candidates or an infomercial for them?
The consensus seems to be that tough questions are good - biased questions are not.
Harwood's 2 outright lies - that he didn't correct his NY Times article on the Tax Foundation's critique of Rubio's tax plan, and that the debate format was always to be 2 hours long - have people scratching their heads because they are so obviously and demonstrably false.
Becky Quick's entanglement with Trump, when she alleged (correctly) that he had criticized Zuckerberg's quest to increase the number of H1B visas, which he denied outright and she asked him where she had read that (it was on Trump's website) and she then apologized, was proof of lack of debate prep.
The candidates representatives meet tonight. They apparently have no set agenda but want to hash something out.
The NY Times asked readers to send in the most ridiculous statement from the Republican debate. They did no such thing after the Democratic debate.
The liberal bias of the mainstream media was on full display this week. Outright lies, bias and incompetence don't go down well when exposed. The GOP was the winner and the media the loser after that debate.
What happens from here will be interesting. If the candidates insist on opening and closing statements then these things will get tedious. For the first time the Republican debates (and to a lesser extent the Dems) are getting fabulous ratings, which is unprecedented. That means commercial revenue for the networks, hence the desire for a 3 hour format.
The Republicans have suspended their agreement with NBC for the February debate in Houston. The NBC debate partner is Telemundo. The Republicans need to reach out to Hispanics, so how this is resolved will be interesting.
The CNBC debate debacle could be a game changer after all. As always, time will tell.
Unfortunately that rarely happens as journalists want to be active participants in the battle (CNBC, Megan Kelly) and incumbents like the format to be as constrained as possible (Cameron).0 -
If they do they don't appear to be actually doing much to make it happen, nor the EU. Those with more knowledge may correct me, but it appears the extent of the 'plans' for Turkey to join, on either side, is limited to statements about maybe, one day doing it and it being ok, secure in the knowledge that day is at least decades away, if ever.perdix said:
And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.0 -
On the other hand if they were responsible as opposed to being surprised by a real accident then they would have been able to give chapter and verse from the beginning.Y0kel said:Irish elections are a hoot. Always throw up some oddball results due the constituency STV system. There is more a probability than possibility that there will be work done to keep Sinn Fein out so betting may need to be considered accordingly.
On the Russian airliner yesterday, there is a rumour that ISIS big chief Baghdadi is going to pour forth on the issue. Suspect if they have a case to make they are going to wait until everyone else tells their story, then sow doubt.0 -
O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment0 -
Calling a spade a spade is fine; it's rather more difficult when you have extended family who are not necessarily favoured by the state...Y0kel said:Call a spade a spade, there has been intimidation and suppression throughout this campaign by the state.
0 -
Not that rubbish again.Speedy said:(snip)
Erdogan would like to resurrect the Ottoman Empire rather than join the EU though.0 -
The facts that you -Speedy said:
A debate should be a battle between the candidates with the journalists acting as the referees.Tim_B said:The CNBC debate fallout continues. Even CNN cannot defend the incompetence and bias of the moderators performance, and they really tried hard.
But CNN raised an interesting question which captures the nub of the debate argument - should it be a test of the candidates or an infomercial for them?
The consensus seems to be that tough questions are good - biased questions are not.
Harwood's 2 outright lies - that he didn't correct his NY Times article on the Tax Foundation's critique of Rubio's tax plan, and that the debate format was always to be 2 hours long - have people scratching their heads because they are so obviously and demonstrably false.
Becky Quick's entanglement with Trump, when she alleged (correctly) that he had criticized Zuckerberg's quest to increase the number of H1B visas, which he denied outright and she asked him where she had read that (it was on Trump's website) and she then apologized, was proof of lack of debate prep.
The candidates representatives meet tonight. They apparently have no set agenda but want to hash something out.
The NY Times asked readers to send in the most ridiculous statement from the Republican debate. They did no such thing after the Democratic debate.
The liberal bias of the mainstream media was on full display this week. Outright lies, bias and incompetence don't go down well when exposed. The GOP was the winner and the media the loser after that debate.
What happens from here will be interesting. If the candidates insist on opening and closing statements then these things will get tedious. For the first time the Republican debates (and to a lesser extent the Dems) are getting fabulous ratings, which is unprecedented. That means commercial revenue for the networks, hence the desire for a 3 hour format.
The Republicans have suspended their agreement with NBC for the February debate in Houston. The NBC debate partner is Telemundo. The Republicans need to reach out to Hispanics, so how this is resolved will be interesting.
The CNBC debate debacle could be a game changer after all. As always, time will tell.
Unfortunately that rarely happens as journalists want to be active participants in the battle (CNBC, Megan Kelly) and incumbents like the format to be as constrained as possible (Cameron).
a) can't spell Megyn Kelly's name
b) Cameron isn't a participant
c) you put CNBC and Kelly on the same level
tell me you are not neutral on this - CNBC has been universally criticized for the debate, whereas the Fox debate and the CNN debate were generally praised.0 -
Turkey is a great power, and the 3rd strongest in the european area (after Germany and Russia).kle4 said:
If they do they don't appear to be actually doing much to make it happen, nor the EU. Those with more knowledge may correct me, but it appears the extent of the 'plans' for Turkey to join, on either side, is limited to statements about maybe, one day doing it and it being ok, secure in the knowledge that day is at least decades away, if ever.perdix said:
And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Why should Erdogan surrender that power and absolute control over it to some supranational institution that has no positives to show for anyone much less to him?0 -
F1: Sky buildup show has just started, weather is dry and the only clouds visible are fluffy cumulus.0
-
Well yes but really he or Sturgeon would aim to be De ValeraSpeedy said:
I think the SNP dream scenario is declaring Alex Salmond the supreme ruler of all of scotland.HYUFD said:On topic if Scotland were ever to become independent (which I still doubt) the SNP dream scenario would be to become for Scotland what Fianna Fail was in Ireland for so many years
0 -
There is of course significant doubt about any statements right now, and they could just be making mischief. It isn't, however, the first time they've let their opponents put out a line before pulling the rug from underneath them by producing some hard evidence to the contrary.flightpath01 said:
On the other hand if they were responsible as opposed to being surprised by a real accident then they would have been able to give chapter and verse from the beginning.Y0kel said:Irish elections are a hoot. Always throw up some oddball results due the constituency STV system. There is more a probability than possibility that there will be work done to keep Sinn Fein out so betting may need to be considered accordingly.
On the Russian airliner yesterday, there is a rumour that ISIS big chief Baghdadi is going to pour forth on the issue. Suspect if they have a case to make they are going to wait until everyone else tells their story, then sow doubt.
Like most of us, they are not always liars and not always honest.
0 -
I'm not saying he should, it was just my understanding it is still technically policy to support the idea from some in the EU and in Turkey. Clearly neither side sees much actual benefit or presumably there would have been more achieved in the decades since the process began.Speedy said:
Turkey is a great power, and the 3rd strongest in the european area (after Germany and Russia).kle4 said:
If they do they don't appear to be actually doing much to make it happen, nor the EU. Those with more knowledge may correct me, but it appears the extent of the 'plans' for Turkey to join, on either side, is limited to statements about maybe, one day doing it and it being ok, secure in the knowledge that day is at least decades away, if ever.perdix said:
And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Why should Erdogan surrender that power and absolute control over it to some supranational institution that has no positives to show for anyone much less to him?0 -
About a.Sorry I don't watch Fox News as much as you.Tim_B said:
The facts that you -Speedy said:
A debate should be a battle between the candidates with the journalists acting as the referees.Tim_B said:The CNBC debate fallout continues. Even CNN cannot defend the incompetence and bias of the moderators performance, and they really tried hard.
The candidates representatives meet tonight. They apparently have no set agenda but want to hash something out.
The NY Times asked readers to send in the most ridiculous statement from the Republican debate. They did no such thing after the Democratic debate.
The liberal bias of the mainstream media was on full display this week. Outright lies, bias and incompetence don't go down well when exposed. The GOP was the winner and the media the loser after that debate.
What happens from here will be interesting. If the candidates insist on opening and closing statements then these things will get tedious. For the first time the Republican debates (and to a lesser extent the Dems) are getting fabulous ratings, which is unprecedented. That means commercial revenue for the networks, hence the desire for a 3 hour format.
The Republicans have suspended their agreement with NBC for the February debate in Houston. The NBC debate partner is Telemundo. The Republicans need to reach out to Hispanics, so how this is resolved will be interesting.
The CNBC debate debacle could be a game changer after all. As always, time will tell.
Unfortunately that rarely happens as journalists want to be active participants in the battle (CNBC, Megan Kelly) and incumbents like the format to be as constrained as possible (Cameron).
a) can't spell Megyn Kelly's name
b) Cameron isn't a participant
c) you put CNBC and Kelly on the same level
tell me you are not neutral on this - CNBC has been universally criticized for the debate, whereas the Fox debate and the CNN debate were generally praised.
About b. Cameron restrained and made a boring mess of the GE leaders debates on purpose, I was referring to that as an example.
About c. Fox was after Trump and Kelly was counter-attacked by Trump as much as all the candidates were attacked by CNBC and counter-punched, both CNBC and Fox News did the same thing but Fox limited it to Trump only.0 -
GMB leader spoke for Trident at SLAB conference, so we have gone from the threat of Miliband being held hostage by the unions to the unions being held hostage by Corbyn's Labour within six months!0
-
The negotiations and the carrot of future membership suits both sides very well, without actually making much progress towards that membership.kle4 said:
I'm not saying he should, it was just my understanding it is still technically policy to support the idea from some in the EU and in Turkey. Clearly neither side sees much actual benefit or presumably there would have been more achieved in the decades since the process began.Speedy said:
Turkey is a great power, and the 3rd strongest in the european area (after Germany and Russia).kle4 said:
If they do they don't appear to be actually doing much to make it happen, nor the EU. Those with more knowledge may correct me, but it appears the extent of the 'plans' for Turkey to join, on either side, is limited to statements about maybe, one day doing it and it being ok, secure in the knowledge that day is at least decades away, if ever.perdix said:
And Turkey wants to join the EU?Speedy said:
Actually "operation ballot stuffing" is an extremes success for Erdogan, the projection now the kurds have been excluded from the turkish parliament, is that he will gain 2/3 rds of seats. Allowing Erdogan to change the turkish constitution and declare himself president for life, that means he will remain president for about 30 more years given that he is only 61.surbiton said:Looks like AK getting a comfortable majority. The losers are the two nationalist parties, the Kurds and the Turkish MHP. The social democratic CHP are keeping their June votes and may increase the number of MPs by one or two.
AK looks like winning 310 seats out of 550.
Why should Erdogan surrender that power and absolute control over it to some supranational institution that has no positives to show for anyone much less to him?0 -
I cannot see how the HDP will not be in the new Assembly. 99% of votes counted , HDP still above 10.3%. They will get 59 seats, down 21. The MHP have been the biggest loser.Speedy said:Talking about a nail-biter HDP at 10.01% with 95% counted:
http://secim.ntv.com.tr/0 -
They just scrapped through, 10.35% with 99% counted.surbiton said:
I cannot see how the HDP will not be in the new Assembly. 99% of votes counted , HDP still above 10.3%. They will get 59 seats, down 21. The MHP have been the biggest loser.Speedy said:Talking about a nail-biter HDP at 10.01% with 95% counted:
http://secim.ntv.com.tr/0 -
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
0 -
OT My sympathies re Supergirl. I saw the pilot when it escaped into the wild about 6 months ago - it was terrible.
They clearly haven't reshot it.Tim_B said:
The Russians are saying the plane came apart in the air.Y0kel said:Irish elections are a hoot. Always throw up some oddball results due the constituency STV system. There is more a probability than possibility that there will be work done to keep Sinn Fein out so betting may need to be considered accordingly.
On the Russian airliner yesterday, there is a rumour that ISIS big chief Baghdadi is going to pour forth on the issue. Suspect if they have a case to make they are going to wait until everyone else tells their story, then sow doubt.
So are we into explosive decompression caused by catastrophic structural failure due to an engine, structural fatigue, a bomb or a missile?0 -
I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.0
-
Well, it was a Russian airline that was flying to Russia, and carrying mostly Russian passengers, and IS have reasons to go after Russia.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
Depending on the triggering mechanism, they might not get too much choice of where geographically it goes off, only at time and/or altitude. If it was on a timer (I don't know how common those are nowadays), than a delay to the flight could have set it off earlier.
ISTR there was one flight where a bomb went off whilst the plane was on the tarmac, as the flight had been delayed.0 -
It's nothing to do with watching Fox News - the inability to spell someone's name that you are invoking as an example just shows ignorance and lack of command of the facts.Speedy said:
About a.Sorry I don't watch Fox News as much as you.Tim_B said:
The facts that you -Speedy said:
A debate should be a battle between the candidates with the journalists acting as the referees.Tim_B said:
Unfortunately that rarely happens as journalists want to be active participants in the battle (CNBC, Megan Kelly) and incumbents like the format to be as constrained as possible (Cameron).
a) can't spell Megyn Kelly's name
b) Cameron isn't a participant
c) you put CNBC and Kelly on the same level
tell me you are not neutral on this - CNBC has been universally criticized for the debate, whereas the Fox debate and the CNN debate were generally praised.
About b. Cameron restrained and made a boring mess of the GE leaders debates on purpose, I was referring to that as an example.
About c. Fox was after Trump and Kelly was counter-attacked by Trump as much as all the candidates were attacked by CNBC and counter-punched, both CNBC and Fox News did the same thing but Fox limited it to Trump only.
Cameron is not a factor in US debates. It's a ferret rouge. Let it go.
Fox - and to a slightly lesser extent CNN - asked detailed hard questions on major issues designed to get candidates out of their comfort zone and away from canned quotes. They were praised for that.
CNBC - Is this a clown campaign? Why don't you resign? Why are your numbers going down? Should the government regulate fantasy football? You closed a 401K and paid thousands in fees - are you equipped to run a $19 trillion economy? CNBC was universally panned. Not a single question on the major issues that people care about. All gotcha and biased questions designed to be mean-spirited and belittle. One moderator caught in 2 blatant lies and another exposed for lack of prep. The audience actively booed some questions.
Can you really not tell the difference?0 -
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
0 -
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.0 -
Maybe they wanted it to crash in the Med and the timing was off.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.0 -
Lockerbie being the perfect example. 45-60 minutes later and they would never have recovered all the wreckage, and would probably have not found the Toshiba cassette player.Y0kel said:
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
IIRC there was some delay in take off0 -
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
0 -
I feel anyone flying to Egypt would disagree - previous to this there was a sort of 'bubble' around the resort side of Egypt, however illusory. People felt safe. They won't any more, and it will seriously damage Egypt's tourist economy.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
0 -
Addition to my earlier post, this is the bomb that went off whilst the plane was still on the tarmac:
On December 12, 1981, an Aeronica Boeing 727 exploded while waiting at the Mexico City Airport. The bomb was timed to go off mid-air, but because of a 50-minute flight delay, it went off early, just before 150 passengers were about to board.[7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_airliner_bombing_attacks
And the ASN entry:
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19811212-00 -
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
0 -
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%
0 -
Sounds like shades of this disaster:JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_1230 -
Do any of those contain a city?Sunil_Prasannan said:
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%0 -
Yep, and this one, caused by incorrect repairs 22 years earlier:Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sounds like shades of this disaster:JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_6110 -
That will be the most straightforward explanation. A badly repaired and/or maintained plane will be much easier to mitigate than a plane problem potentially affecting thousands of aircraft or any sort of unlawful interference.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
0 -
Who knows we might then have blamed the correct people rather than one who was put up. Most believed Iran was behind it and they had a formidable intelligence capability. It was meant to be revenge for the American shooting down of 200 pilgrims to Makkah.Tim_B said:
Lockerbie being the perfect example. 45-60 minutes later and they would never have recovered all the wreckage, and would probably have not found the Toshiba cassette player.Y0kel said:
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
IIRC there was some delay in take off
But you cannot blame Iran as Libya was blamed for it and suitable scapegoats were put up. Incidentally, we still did business with Libya after one of their intelligence officers was convicted. Sounds a bit fishy, doesn't it ?0 -
It might be easier to mitigate, but if it is the cause, then it'll be the third aircraft lost to this cause in a couple of decades. And it's obvious when repairs due to a tailstrike have occurred.Sandpit said:
That will be the most straightforward explanation. A badly repaired and/or maintained plane will be much easier to mitigate than a plane problem potentially affecting thousands of aircraft or any sort of unlawful interference.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
If it is the cause, there should be immediate inspections of the bulkheads and other items of all pressurised passenger airframes that have suffered tailstrikes.
But we're talking hypotheticals. It should be fairly obvious from the wreckage and data recorders if it was a bulkhead failure.0 -
So it is indeed the most Unionist city in Scotland? Unless Lerwick has been promoted while I was distracted?Sunil_Prasannan said:
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%0 -
On the other hand, Libya had a track record of bombing civilian airliners.surbiton said:
Who knows we might then have blamed the correct people rather than one who was put up. Most believed Iran was behind it and they had a formidable intelligence capability. It was meant to be revenge for the American shooting down of 200 pilgrims to Makkah.Tim_B said:
Lockerbie being the perfect example. 45-60 minutes later and they would never have recovered all the wreckage, and would probably have not found the Toshiba cassette player.Y0kel said:
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
IIRC there was some delay in take off
But you cannot blame Iran as Libya was blamed for it and suitable scapegoats were put up. Incidentally, we still did business with Libya after one of their intelligence officers was convicted. Sounds a bit fishy, doesn't it ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTA_Flight_772
As an aside, that page mentions another terrorist bomb going off on the runway, this time on a DC8 after it had landed. It seems timers are not necessarily the most reliable method of setting off bombs on airliners.
As a further aside, UTA 772 has a rather sombre but spectacular memorial in the desert where it crashed.
http://www.snopes.com/photos/airplane/flight772.asp0 -
Well done England on beating New Zealand at Rugby league in the first game of three.0
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Any major repair since the JAL 747 crash will have come with its own inspection schedule from the manufacturer, whereby the affected area is regularly inspected for cracks and signs of fatigue that could lead to failure of the repair.JosiasJessop said:
It might be easier to mitigate, but if it is the cause, then it'll be the third aircraft lost to this cause in a couple of decades. And it's obvious when repairs due to a tailstrike have occurred.Sandpit said:
That will be the most straightforward explanation. A badly repaired and/or maintained plane will be much easier to mitigate than a plane problem potentially affecting thousands of aircraft or any sort of unlawful interference.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
If it is the cause, there should be immediate inspections of the bulkheads and other items of all pressurised passenger airframes that have suffered tailstrikes.
But we're talking hypotheticals. It should be fairly obvious from the wreckage and data recorders if it was a bulkhead failure.
As you say it should become clear within a couple of days what happened to cause this crash - they have all the wreckage and the black boxes are already recovered.0 -
I thought that it was the other way around - Blair felt able to do business with Libya because they admitted liability and handed over the man responsible? They had to make some sort of apology for the Yvonne Fletcher murder as well, not that I suppose anyone thought Gaddafi was terribly sincere.surbiton said:
Who knows we might then have blamed the correct people rather than one who was put up. Most believed Iran was behind it and they had a formidable intelligence capability. It was meant to be revenge for the American shooting down of 200 pilgrims to Makkah.Tim_B said:
Lockerbie being the perfect example. 45-60 minutes later and they would never have recovered all the wreckage, and would probably have not found the Toshiba cassette player.Y0kel said:
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
IIRC there was some delay in take off
But you cannot blame Iran as Libya was blamed for it and suitable scapegoats were put up. Incidentally, we still did business with Libya after one of their intelligence officers was convicted. Sounds a bit fishy, doesn't it ?0 -
The decline took place up to around mid-2014. Since then Fine Gael have recovered a little bit, but Labour as the junior coalition partner haven't. Bear in mind that the government has had to administer some very unpalatable medicine, so it's not surprising that the two parties have lost some popular support.DavidL said:A government that is delivering 6% growth should be rebounding quickly in the polls, surely? And yet your graph indicates they are declining.
However, I think it's likely that there will be some swingback to both Fine Gael and Labour as the election approaches. The message of 'Don't wreck the recovery' is a potent one, and the very large share currently showing for independents and minor parties is probably fairly soft.
0 -
F1: hot and sunny, combined with the altitude might mean lots of unreliable cars - brakes especially could overheat if there's not a safety car during the race. Lights out in 5 mins, I'm guessing this is a 'no spoilers' race so will keep quiet about it now.0
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You'd like to think so, except the China Air Line crash was caused by the same sort of failure of a repair, and occurred seventeen years after the JAL crash. I think the investigators found photographs of the repairs from a few years before the crash, and there were nicotine stains on the bulkhead, showing where pressurised air was escaping from the cabin. Maintenance engineers did not spot it.Sandpit said:
Any major repair since the JAL 747 crash will have come with its own inspection schedule from the manufacturer, whereby the affected area is regularly inspected for cracks and signs of fatigue that could lead to failure of the repair.JosiasJessop said:
It might be easier to mitigate, but if it is the cause, then it'll be the third aircraft lost to this cause in a couple of decades. And it's obvious when repairs due to a tailstrike have occurred.Sandpit said:
That will be the most straightforward explanation. A badly repaired and/or maintained plane will be much easier to mitigate than a plane problem potentially affecting thousands of aircraft or any sort of unlawful interference.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
If it is the cause, there should be immediate inspections of the bulkheads and other items of all pressurised passenger airframes that have suffered tailstrikes.
But we're talking hypotheticals. It should be fairly obvious from the wreckage and data recorders if it was a bulkhead failure.
(snip)0 -
Wow.
German Village of 102 Braces for 750 Asylum Seekers
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/01/world/europe/german-village-of-102-braces-for-750-asylum-seekers.html0 -
I'm not convinced by comparisons of Fianna Fail and suggestions they are a potential model for the SNP to follow. On the most basic points:
1) They failed to win the Irish Civil War, a war they themselves had launched in a futile bid to get better peace terms out of the British government. However, in the meanwhile they had managed to kill or otherwise incapacitate all of Ireland's ablest politicians or administrators apart from Richard Mulcahy and de Valera himself (accepting for the moment that while he had many admirable qualities, Cosgrave was not really a first-rank politician) which severely retarded Ireland's political development;
2) They failed to gain Irish independence, although they took some fairly important steps towards it;
3) Their mere existence made the already slender chances of ending Partition absolutely zero.
Surely the SNP would want something better than that, both for themselves and for Scotland?0 -
As pointed out I was referring to largest city. Edinburgh voted 61.1% No as you stated, Perth 60.2% No, Stirling 59.8% No, Aberdeen 58.6% No, Inverness 52.9% No. Dundee voted 57.3% Yes, Glasgow 53.5% YesSunil_Prasannan said:
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
0 -
On topic, it always seemed an odd decision of Labour to go into coalition rather than let FG govern as a minority. Yes, there was the 'national interest' argument and yes, Labour has acted as the minor party in government before but finishing second gave Labour their best ever chance of breaking through to be a main player. Instead, they've given FF a clearer road back and allowed SF to advance on the left.0
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Thanks for that JJ. That story is terribly sad by also amazingly inspiring and touching.JosiasJessop said:
On the other hand, Libya had a track record of bombing civilian airliners.surbiton said:
Who knows we might then have blamed the correct people rather than one who was put up. Most believed Iran was behind it and they had a formidable intelligence capability. It was meant to be revenge for the American shooting down of 200 pilgrims to Makkah.Tim_B said:
Lockerbie being the perfect example. 45-60 minutes later and they would never have recovered all the wreckage, and would probably have not found the Toshiba cassette player.Y0kel said:
Opportunity in that business is rarely that exact.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why bring it down over the Sinai? To stoke tensions in Egypt? Laxer controls?Moses_ said:O/T
Well this is interesting... Daily Telegraph.
16.30
Russia's top aviation official says the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt had broken up at high altitude.
French experts believe Isil may have placed bomb on plane that crashed in Egypt on Saturday, with 17 children and 207 adults on board. Latest news here
Just a 3 mile debris field and broke up at high altitude? DT also reports that The French are also leaning towards a bomb at the moment
Surely the way to terrorise people would to have brought it down just before it was due to land in Berlin or something.
IIRC there was some delay in take off
But you cannot blame Iran as Libya was blamed for it and suitable scapegoats were put up. Incidentally, we still did business with Libya after one of their intelligence officers was convicted. Sounds a bit fishy, doesn't it ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTA_Flight_772
As an aside, that page mentions another terrorist bomb going off on the runway, this time on a DC8 after it had landed. It seems timers are not necessarily the most reliable method of setting off bombs on airliners.
As a further aside, UTA 772 has a rather sombre but spectacular memorial in the desert where it crashed.
http://www.snopes.com/photos/airplane/flight772.asp0 -
Just pointing out that there were more Unionist council areas!HYUFD said:
As pointed out I was referring to largest city. Edinburgh voted 61.1% No as you stated, Perth 60.2% No, Stirling 59.8% No, Aberdeen 58.6% No, Inverness 52.9% No. Dundee voted 57.3% Yes, Glasgow 53.5% YesSunil_Prasannan said:
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_20140 -
FF wasn't around at the time of the Civil War!ydoethur said:I'm not convinced by comparisons of Fianna Fail and suggestions they are a potential model for the SNP to follow. On the most basic points:
1) They failed to win the Irish Civil War, a war they themselves had launched in a futile bid to get better peace terms out of the British government. However, in the meanwhile they had managed to kill or otherwise incapacitate all of Ireland's ablest politicians or administrators apart from Richard Mulcahy and de Valera himself (accepting for the moment that while he had many admirable qualities, Cosgrave was not really a first-rank politician) which severely retarded Ireland's political development;
2) They failed to gain Irish independence, although they took some fairly important steps towards it;
3) Their mere existence made the already slender chances of ending Partition absolutely zero.
Surely the SNP would want something better than that, both for themselves and for Scotland?
FF was formed by Dev in 1926, as he disagreed with the ongoing abstentionism (WRT the Dail) of the Anti-Treaty SF (as was).0 -
Indeed but they were all in largely rural areas. The original point was in response to Danny565's argument that Edinburgh offered Corbyn's best prospect in Scotland, I was pointing out Glasgow was more likely, although the SNP would still likely predominate. Edinburgh probably preferred Ed Miliband to Corbyn, after all it holds the only seat Miliband won north of the border in MaySunil_Prasannan said:
Just pointing out that there were more Unionist council areas!HYUFD said:
As pointed out I was referring to largest city. Edinburgh voted 61.1% No as you stated, Perth 60.2% No, Stirling 59.8% No, Aberdeen 58.6% No, Inverness 52.9% No. Dundee voted 57.3% Yes, Glasgow 53.5% YesSunil_Prasannan said:
"No" vote was larger in:HYUFD said:
Edinburgh is the most Tory and Unionist city in Scotland,Danny565 said:FPT:
Edinburgh is Labour's only chance of salvaging any dignity in Scotland next year. It's the only part of the country with a substantial young English-born population (the Highlands and the Borders also have a lot of English-borns, but I think they tend to be wealthy retirees).
Orkney 67.2%
Borders 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway 65.7
Shetland 63.7
East Renfrewshire 63.2
East Lothian 61.7
East Dunbartonshire 61.2
then:
Edinburgh 61.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_20140 -
I think it was probably purely reflexive - they have been forming coalitions ever since 1948 so they continued to do so. However, it doesn't seem wholly impossible that they were leaned on by the ECB observers to provide FG with their majority to ensure there would be enough political cover for the rescue package. It was still an unfortunate mistake though, although whether it will benefit F or S F I'm not sure yet (we all know how reliable opinion polls are)!david_herdson said:On topic, it always seemed an odd decision of Labour to go into coalition rather than let FG govern as a minority. Yes, there was the 'national interest' argument and yes, Labour has acted as the minor party in government before but finishing second gave Labour their best ever chance of breaking through to be a main player. Instead, they've given FF a clearer road back and allowed SF to advance on the left.
There remain some questions over the health of the Irish economy - in particular, see this article from last year:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/morgan-kelly-warns-our-real-economic-crisis-will-begin-if-ecb-credit-stops-1.1724130
Although this seems very pessimistic and certainly didn't forecast the current spectacular rebound, it is worth pointing out that Morgan Kelly was the only Irish economist to predict the failure of the initial bank bailout, and the full extent of the housing crash (hence why an irritable Bertie Ahern invited him to 'commit suicide'). It is worth considering carefully for that reason alone.0 -
How long ago was the tailstrike on the Russian jet? The Japan Airlines 123 must be among the worst. That they had to go through that ordeal, and apparently some surviving the crash only to die before being rescued. Miraculous that four did survive in the end.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sounds like shades of this disaster:JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_1230 -
Fianna Fail was formed out of the Anti-Treaty forces of the civil war. What is now Sinn Fein was the breakaway. Cummann na Gaedhael (as it then was) were the pro-Treaty forces, but later merged with other parties including the controversial 'Blueshirt' movement to form Fine Gael in the early 1930s.Sunil_Prasannan said:
FF wasn't around at the time of the Civil War!ydoethur said:I'm not convinced by comparisons of Fianna Fail and suggestions they are a potential model for the SNP to follow. On the most basic points:
1) They failed to win the Irish Civil War, a war they themselves had launched in a futile bid to get better peace terms out of the British government. However, in the meanwhile they had managed to kill or otherwise incapacitate all of Ireland's ablest politicians or administrators apart from Richard Mulcahy and de Valera himself (accepting for the moment that while he had many admirable qualities, Cosgrave was not really a first-rank politician) which severely retarded Ireland's political development;
2) They failed to gain Irish independence, although they took some fairly important steps towards it;
3) Their mere existence made the already slender chances of ending Partition absolutely zero.
Surely the SNP would want something better than that, both for themselves and for Scotland?
FF was formed by Dev in 1926, as he disagreed with the ongoing abstentionism (WRT the Dail) of the Anti-Treaty SF (as was).
PS - don't trust WP - it appears to have been edited by a SF fanatic.0 -
Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.0
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Poooo.
I love them, and with a few 1970s safety procedures we had great fun.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
2001, during landing in Cairo. Mentioned at http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20151031-0RobD said:
How long ago was the tailstrike on the Russian jet? The Japan Airlines 123 must be among the worst. That they had to go through that ordeal, and apparently some surviving the crash only to die before being rescued. Miraculous that four did survive in the end.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sounds like shades of this disaster:JosiasJessop said:
Yes, poor repairs from the tailstrike has to be the most likely cause at the moment, and it could explain the little firm information we have.flightpath01 said:
Plus the plane is 18 years old and has been operated by 3rd rate airlines. And it has been involved in a previous incident which must question its structural integrity.JosiasJessop said:
Not really. If it was a mechanical failure, then the causal factors will probably be identified, and there is a good chance they will be guarded against in the future. Terrorism is much harder and more costly to effectively guard against, especially in certain countries.SandyRentool said:I would rather the plane came down as a result of terrorism than mechanical failure. Lots more A32X out there, and a design fault could impact any of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_1230 -
I've no objection to them in moderation - but not every night for a whole month!Plato_Says said:Poooo.
I love them, and with a few 1970s safety procedures we had great fun.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
I've lived in 3 places in three years and fireworks lasted about 3 days over Hallowe'en and three over Guy Fawkes - these were in middle of nowhere and two places in Eastbourne.
I find it hard to believe that every night for a month is accurate.ydoethur said:
I've no objection to them in moderation - but not every night for a whole month!Plato_Says said:Poooo.
I love them, and with a few 1970s safety procedures we had great fun.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
Hardly any round us yet. We tend to get a lot at Diwali too (11 Nov this year). My cat and dog don't like them much.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
Sounds like the LD's to me.david_herdson said:On topic, it always seemed an odd decision of Labour to go into coalition rather than let FG govern as a minority. Yes, there was the 'national interest' argument and yes, Labour has acted as the minor party in government before but finishing second gave Labour their best ever chance of breaking through to be a main player. Instead, they've given FF a clearer road back and allowed SF to advance on the left.
Small parties should never ever enter coalitions, a coalition always allows the dominant party to get all the credit and the smaller one to get all the blame.0 -
I loved Diwali in India with all the painted animals - I'd paint mine but suspect the RSPCA would bitch about itfoxinsoxuk said:
Hardly any round us yet. We tend to get a lot at Diwali too (11 Nov this year). My cat and dog don't like them much.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
It certainly wasn't this bad last year. I don't think it helped that the local football club had fireworks rather early - everyone seems to have got the idea of holding them willy-nilly rather than just the few days they have near you.Plato_Says said:I've lived in 3 places in three years and fireworks lasted about 3 days over Hallowe'en and three over Guy Fawkes - these were in middle of nowhere and two places in Eastbourne.
I find it hard to believe that every night for a month is accurate.ydoethur said:
I've no objection to them in moderation - but not every night for a whole month!Plato_Says said:Poooo.
I love them, and with a few 1970s safety procedures we had great fun.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
0 -
Brilliant punPlato_Says said:I loved Diwali in India with all the painted animals - I'd paint mine but suspect the RSPCA would bitch about it
foxinsoxuk said:
Hardly any round us yet. We tend to get a lot at Diwali too (11 Nov this year). My cat and dog don't like them much.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
PS - there hasn't been a month yet - we've still got a week to go if my forecast is accurate.0 -
I'm watching an ancient DVR prog Kangaroo Dundee - it's brilliant!
I'd have a rescue kangaroo in an instant = they're called pinkies.ydoethur said:
Brilliant punPlato_Says said:I loved Diwali in India with all the painted animals - I'd paint mine but suspect the RSPCA would bitch about it
foxinsoxuk said:
Hardly any round us yet. We tend to get a lot at Diwali too (11 Nov this year). My cat and dog don't like them much.ydoethur said:Completely off topic, but one very good thing the New Labour government did do was place restrictions on the sale of fireworks, and one very bad thing this government has done is remove them again. We've had huge numbers of them going off every night for the last three weeks, and I have no doubt they will continue for at least the next week. I'm absolutely sick of them.
PS - there hasn't been a month yet - we've still got a week to go if my forecast is accurate.0
