politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked off the top slot in new national poll
With established politicians all making heavy weather in the polls the former neuro-surgeon, Ben Carson and Donald Trump have been leading with, until today, the latter having the edge. But now we have this one from CBS/NYT.
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Though please let it not be Ben Carson.
He makes Trump look good
FPT This, I feel, is a very important point to bear in mind with a lot of policies, much abused by all sides. The standard 'I've found examples where the policy negatively impacts someone, therefore you are heartless for doing it and it must be scrapped' approach. Sometimes it may be a fair representation of the general effect of a policy, but more often it is not and the actual merits, or lack of merits, of the policy itself may in fact outweigh the general harm that may arise, even though individuals will still lose out and suffer.
On this one that there has been so much internal opposition, not purely for the perceived political cost from the perception of policy, that it does lead me to believe some tinkering was probably in order to mitigate the impact, but I've yet to be convinced by the counter-arguments that something of this nature at least is not necessary in terms of a profligate system that was not working effectively needing to be tackled, and so on balance I currently have to feel moves should press ahead. Perhaps another approach could be taken, but with cuts getting harder to find, making hard choices seems to need to be done now, or soon at any rate, and is there time for such large revision.
Gah. There is a world beyond state subsidy and state sector.
And everyone has benefited from massive increases in personal allowances.
Why are all your examples negative?
Speaking of Walmart, George has now appeared as its low price line (wasn't that from subsidiary ASDA?). Nice cotton Oxford shirts for about 8 pounds.
Even the prequels can't ruin my love for it.
I'm hoping the films follow the expanded universe novels and have Luke turning to the dark side.
What qualification does this lady have to be a lifelong lawmaker?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorely_Burt
Per Hansard:
"5.28 pm
Division on Lord Kennedy’s Amendment
Contents 267; Not-Contents 257.
Lord Kennedy’s Amendment agreed.
As a result of a technical problem, the voting list was unavailable for Division No. 1, and will be published online as soon as it is available.
5.45 pm
Division on Lord Tyler’s Motion, as amended.
Contents 246; Not-Contents 257.
Lord Tyler’s Motion, as amended, disagreed.
As a result of a technical problem, the voting list was unavailable for Division No 2, and will be published online as soon as it is available."
So it APPEARS that the vote totals are correct.
Must say I am still very suspicious about this - whenever there is more than one vote a few peers from all sides normally drift home and only vote in the first vote.
Yet on this occasion the Govt retained its vote total at 257 precisely. Yet the opposition went down by 21. It's all very, very bizarre.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/lords/todays-lords-debates/read/unknown/108/
But really I think it's just that the hype campaign has been very well handled. George Lucas was seen as principally behind the creative decisions that made the prequel trilogy bad, and for the first new movie at least the stalwart fans of the original seem willing to give it another chance. Helped by J J Abrahms, though not universally liked, being generally considered a good director who rebooted another very tired franchise very well, and did so while being a bigger fan of Wars than Trek, so he's even more invested in making it good.
Add to that some stylish trailers, promise of new main characters for those who don't care about the old lot anymore, roles for the original cast for those who do care, and you get the nostalgia factor, an appeal to new audiences (the trailer would seem to indicate despite everything Han Solo has to explain things like the Force to the new characters) all adding to tremendous hype.
Personally I like the original trilogy but think people take it way too seriously and give it way too much credit, and though the prequels are bad, I can defend elements of them at least, but this one seems like it could be fun.
I don't even pretend to get the "expanded universe novels" comment.
Trump 31% (26%)
Carson 23% (21%)
Rubio 11% (10%)
Bush 6% (5%)
Cruz 6% (9%)
Fiorina 6% (12%)
Huckabee 5% (6%)
Kasich 5% (4%)
Christie 3% (2%)
Paul 2% (0%)
Santorum 2% (1%)
Gilmore 0% (0%)
Graham 0% (0%)
Jindal 0% (1%)
Pataki 0% (0%)
PPP- North Carolina Republican Head-to-Head
Carson 51% (54%)
Trump 40% (38%)
Trump 47% (44%)
Rubio 42% (47%)
Trump 52% (–)
Cruz 34% (–)
Trump 58% (56%)
Bush 29% (36%)
vs. Clinton
Carson 49% (51%)
Clinton 43% (41%)
Rubio 48% (50%)
Clinton 42% (40%)
Trump 48% (47%)
Clinton 42% (42%)
Huckabee 48% (48%)
Clinton 44% (41%)
Fiorina 45% (48%)
Clinton 43% (41%)
Cruz 46% (46%)
Clinton 45% (43%)
Clinton 44% (40%)
Kasich 42% (44%)
Clinton 46% (41%)
Bush 43% (46%)
vs. Sanders
Carson 48% (48%)
Sanders 37% (35%)
Trump 48% (46%)
Sanders 41% (43%)
Cruz 45% (–)
Sanders 41% (–)
Bush 46% (45%)
Sanders 40% (39%)
Clinton vs. Trump vs. Webb
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
Webb 8%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/clinton-rising-in-north-carolina.html
Though of course the other problem is I've seen the big moments of most of the others parodied so many times, they may lose impact upon actually watching them.
Plenty of people do
I wonder how many private sector workers had to take a big pay cut in order to keep their jobs.
Jack W is an honourable exception though, perhaps on some deepcover operation.
Chelsea are out of the League Cup following a penalty loss to Stoke City, and with that loss dies the dream of the quadruple.
Ben Hur was a stunner for its time - the chariot race is breathtaking even today - it runs 20 minutes. Citizen Kane was a film school exercise in how to make a movie. They are all worth watching. Casablanca is also a classic. Get the DVDs and see what movie making is really all about.
Politicians who lose their seats at elections should be barred from entering the HoL. Even better keep ex MP's of all political persuasions out of the place. It's nothing but a retirement club for the parasites that want to keep sucking on taxpayers teat.
'Kicked out of your cosy job by an ungrateful electorate? Never mind, become a Lord on £300 a day, plus subsidised food and drink, and keep meddling in the lives of the poor sods who gave you the boot.'
https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10424303_829527917087503_3859047470841269141_n.jpg?oh=e2dc2c6afe719dd1f215abb16b202f1f&oe=56CFC158
Thus far, Trump has neither raised nor spent much money. Maybe he will drop out once being famous is no longer enough and voters start paying attention to what he is saying.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/campaign-finance/
Don't call me Shirley.
Roger Roger. What's your vector Victor?
Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.
They have 50% of the voters that simply interchange between them, GOP voters don't like candidates with experience and those who don't give extreme statements, so that excludes Bush and Rubio who are too mild, bland, and have too much experience for republican voters.
More importantly, I am exceptionally drunk.
God Save The Queen.
There are Tykes world wide
At junior school we had a teacher who'd known T E Lawrence between the wars, in the west country, and would tell us the occasional story, usually involving motorbikes. Oddly, I can't recall what the man actually taught (although primary education in those days was mainly the 3Rs in various guises).
Just seen Lord Tyler's speech - he said 415,000 of the 1.9m names are in London - that's 22% are in London.
But London only has 73 out of 650 seats - ie 11% of seats.
That is a very substantial skew = Bad news for Labour.
Yes, he had a thing for speed, particularly on his Brough Superior motorcycle, which eventually killed him.
My father went to a Lowell Thomas lecture with his father and his benefactor in the Carchemish dig also funded my school chapel.
Jeremy Corbyn needs his bottom spanking says Game of Thrones star Diana Rigg
The Labour leader will have a hard time sitting on any throne once Olenna Tyrell is through with him
http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-10-26/jeremy-corbyn-needs-his-bottom-spanking-says-game-of-thrones-star-diana-rigg
"Chronic Fatigue Syndrome sufferers 'can overcome symptoms of ME with positive thinking and exercise'
Oxford University has found ME is not actually a chronic illness"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/11959193/Chronic-Fatigue-Syndrome-sufferers-can-overcome-symptoms-of-ME-with-positive-thinking-and-exercise.html
The Thing (Carpenter's one, not the recent remake)
The Bedford Incident
Thee's a list here: http://www.funtrivia.com/askft/Question113480.html . But it includes
10. Glengarry Glen Ross (1992)
11. Reservoir Dogs (1992)
- both of which do have (very) brief female speaking parts, IIRC
Having said that, looking forward to the new Star Wars as i can watch this good quality children's film with my 8 year old. (the 3 prequels were crap even for children's films. plotwise anyway. at least some of the action was good)
maybe slightly worrying that a doctor believes that a mental illness is not a real illness. Though, given the obvious ignorance of whoever wrote that article, I wouldn't be surprised if he is misquoted.
not even in English. Wonder if the DT would like to give me a job as science editor.
The Nevada Triangle seems to get the oddjobs wound up at the moment, seemingly only because a semi-famous person (Steve Fosssett) went missing there (although some of his remains were later found).
The idea that this proves CFS isn't "chronic" is also complete cow's dung. I can be keeping the exercise regimen for a couple of years, but if I go through a period where I'm so busy with work and the kids that I don't exercise, it starts creeping back. My body will start telling me to go to bed around 8pm, and then I'll feel groggy even after 10 hours sleep. If I go two weeks without a proper exercise session, I'll be a mess. It's a constant struggle that I will never cure, but can only keep at bay. Still, compared to all the health difficulties that other people suffer from, I'm very lucky. With active proper management, I can do everything everyone else can, so I don't really complain about it and most people I don't even mention it to.
For my money it will be one of these two.
In Rubio's case I prefer backing him at 13/2 with Laddies to go all the way to the White House, as I simply don't see Hillary as being any sort of value at her current odds.
As ever, DYOR.