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See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

Is the Tory subsample statistically significant & correctly internally weighted ?

JEO said:

I struggle to believe that the views of Conservative voters are almost exactly in line with the rest of the public on this. That goes against what pretty much every other poll has shown, and my personal experience. I would have to see it across a number of polls to believe it.

I think it is a Cameron effect.

Dave is extremely popular with the party and voters, if he announces he wants to leave, that's the game changer.

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

I wouldn't be surprised if the most anti-EU are non-voters.

FPT
Dair said:

» show previous quotes
The hanging or burning of effigies has a long and illustrious history in Great Britain.

I believe there is even a national festival dedicated to just such things.

The Tories were all cheering when it was Alex Salmond effigy, now we have fake outrage.

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

Danny565 said:

I think Theresa May is the closest the Tories have to a "continuity Cameron" candidate. She has the same brand strengths as him: she naturally has a leader's "gravitas", she projects steady competence, she's good at atleast pretending she's doing what she thinks is best for the country rather than playing political games. Plus, although she doesn't exactly ooze charm, she doesn't come across as outright dislikeable in the way Osborne does either.

Boris is something of a risk in that he potentially throws away the Cameron strength of gravitas, but he also has strengths which Cameron doesn't: namely people who would ordinarily detest the Tories like him and will be willing to listen to him (especially youngsters).

Osborne conversely lacks many of Cameron's strengths, but doesn't bring anything to the table which Cameron doesn't: he doesn't come across as a natural leader with "gravitas", he's not likeable in the slightest, and he's very transparent at playing political games which the public just doesn't like (see Brown). Yet the Tories are apparently intent on shooting themselves in the foot by choosing him.

I'm all in favour of George's plans so long as he's not building those new homes too near me.

Tory Europhiles are the KIm Philby's de nos jours!

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Dair said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

The hanging or burning of effigies has a long and illustrious history in Great Britain.

I believe there is even a national festival dedicated to just such things.

I agree. The line should be drawn at actual physical violence. I do however include spitting in that. Personally I am of the view that spitting at someone should be considered to be assault. It is a disgusting habit which, in the past, has been associated with the spread of disease. And I would hate to think what diseases some of the protesting crusties are harbouring.

Yes, physical violence and bodily fluids cross the line.

Egging, flouring, soaking, to me these are reasonably borderline activities. I'll faux outrage when the other side do it but laugh if it's my own side.

Burning or hanging effigies, absolutely fine. The Tory hypocrisy over this is stunning but not unexpected.

The reality is that Cameron will get the benefit of the doubt with tory voters for the time being. When nothing comes of the renegotiation re uncontrolled immigration then Tory voters will start to move to an "out" position.

Dair said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

“It's like a dream, but who cares? I want a dream. Right this minute, that's exactly what I want. Because reality has been pretty f*cking crap for a while now.”

Dair said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

Personally I don't care what the protestors in Manchester get up to. But I would suggest that there is a subtle difference between what they're doing and what goes on at Lewes.

Danny565 said:

MarqueeMark said:

What politics is showing us at the moment is that the Tories ARE the centre-ground - both the Party and its voters.

YouGov last week said the public consider the Tories currently to be more right-wing than at any point since 2002.

IMO the Tories have been moving constantly to the left since the early 1990s. This is a testament to Blair and his heirs. This is underlined by them adopting a (not the) living wage, a policy they would have once decried as dangerous.

With regard to public perceptions, that probably comes from the rhetoric. Cameron used to hug huskies, he now hugs kippers.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

Danny565 said:

MarqueeMark said:

What politics is showing us at the moment is that the Tories ARE the centre-ground - both the Party and its voters.

YouGov last week said the public consider the Tories currently to be more right-wing than at any point since 2002.

And they are fine with that. They gave them a majority in May.

Casino_Royale said:

FPT:

Off topic, since when have the Institute of Directors and CBI gone rogue?

The IoD invited Corbyn. Now they're laying into May for anti-immigration rhetoric with all the usual left-wing shibboleths - helpfully quoted by the BBC:

"Director general Simon Walker said:

We are astonished by the irresponsible rhetoric and pandering to anti-immigration sentiment from the home secretary. It is yet another example of the home secretary turning away the world’s best and brightest, putting internal party politics ahead of the country, and helping our competitor economies instead of our own."

Eh? That wasn't her pitch or purpose at all. He sounds like Christian Aid.

I can't recall the last time the CBI were right about anything, and are also now just a bit pathetic - they seem to be a big business producer bureaucracy to me - and they weighed in with:

"Its director general John Cridland says economic migrants "add to the wellness of society". He accepts there are social implications - such as pressures on public services - but concludes that "economic migration is positive for society"."

Back in the day, these institutions were the Thatcherite praetorian guard.

Is there any evidence at all that the world's best and brightest are being turned away from the UK?

The poll looks like an outlier to me.

Casino_Royale said:

FPT:

Off topic, since when have the Institute of Directors and CBI gone rogue?

The IoD invited Corbyn. Now they're laying into May for anti-immigration rhetoric with all the usual left-wing shibboleths - helpfully quoted by the BBC:

"Director general Simon Walker said:

We are astonished by the irresponsible rhetoric and pandering to anti-immigration sentiment from the home secretary. It is yet another example of the home secretary turning away the world’s best and brightest, putting internal party politics ahead of the country, and helping our competitor economies instead of our own."

Eh? That wasn't her pitch or purpose at all. He sounds like Christian Aid.

I can't recall the last time the CBI were right about anything, and are also now just a bit pathetic - they seem to be a big business producer bureaucracy to me - and they weighed in with:

"Its director general John Cridland says economic migrants "add to the wellness of society". He accepts there are social implications - such as pressures on public services - but concludes that "economic migration is positive for society"."

Back in the day, these institutions were the Thatcherite praetorian guard.

1) The IOD always offer an invite to a (new) Opposition leader don't they?

2) The big fault line in the Tory party going forward in my opinion will be those who want to do what is the best for big business and those who want to do best for SMEs

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

In that case, all the Conservative leadership have to do is to campaign to Leave. Then Farage can't claim the credit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

In jest, I'm sure. Because who in all seriousness gives a toss about Farage (or his face) if we do vote to Leave?

I won't vote, or reconsider my vote, on how the whole country is fundamentally governed in future based upon antipathy to one (now irrelevant) and slightly ridiculous politician.

I am wondering though if Farage truly does want us to leave if it means his power and position is eclipsed (which is another way of looking at it, and should be another reason for Tories to vote "no")

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

But that is nonsensical. If the country votes to leave, Farage may be smug, but the raison d'être for UKIP is removed and so is the threat to the Tories (from that direction). And it will not be Farage's victory if the Tories say "we didn't get enough from Europe, so we recommend leave" - it will be the government's victory at that point.

As for the new can of worms, will the losing Inners in the party really want to undermine the party's chances in 2020 just because they are sore losers?

Hadn't realized the Tory membership was full of such wusses.

Theresa Mays speech included most of the arguments I have made on here, which have been argued against vehemently by Tory supporters

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT:

Off topic, since when have the Institute of Directors and CBI gone rogue?

CBI = Conservative Business Interests

I don't think they are. They are furthering their own interests only and they now throw in a little bit of moral grandstanding as well - as the 3rd sector have learnt to do in recent years.

It seems to be contagious.

Peter Hitchens on the daily politics saying he makes political bets.... Must say I am surprised

tlg86 said:

Dair said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

Personally I don't care what the protestors in Manchester get up to. But I would suggest that there is a subtle difference between what they're doing and what goes on at Lewes.

That subtle difference being that if what they do at the culmination of the Lewes bonfire was proposed as a new event and not an old tradition, it would almost certainly fall found of the Religious Hatred Act.

isam said:

Peter Hitchens on the daily politics saying he makes political bets.... Must say I am surprised

I wonder what his PB.com name is!

isam said:

Peter Hitchens on the daily politics saying he makes political bets.... Must say I am surprised

Has he given any tips ?

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

That's like voting against AV just to spite Clegg. UKIP gets destroyed on an out vote I reckon anyway.

The thing is the result in May showed the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP. It's all about building the a big tent that occupies the centre-right ground.

Yep, it's my point - worrying about Farage's ego with your vote on the EU referendum is ludicrous though. Vote out if you think it's a good idea, or "in" if you think that is better !

For 25 years the Tory party has had a major fault line over the EU, Leave possibly makes it worse, a comprehensive vote to remain settles the matter for a generation

I'm guessing Owen Patterson isn't going to be announcing much today... seeing as it is "National badger day"

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

That's like voting against AV just to spite Clegg. UKIP gets destroyed on an out vote I reckon anyway.

The thing is the result in May showed the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP. It's all about building the a big tent that occupies the centre-right ground.

Yep, it's my point - worrying about Farage's ego with your vote on the EU referendum is ludicrous though. Vote out if you think it's a good idea, or "in" if you think that is better !

It would seem like the very definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face, to vote against your own beliefs just to make someone else unhappy.

Danny565 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Danny565 said:

MarqueeMark said:

What politics is showing us at the moment is that the Tories ARE the centre-ground - both the Party and its voters.

YouGov last week said the public consider the Tories currently to be more right-wing than at any point since 2002.

And they are fine with that. They gave them a majority in May.

Sure, and they may well do it again in 2020 - I think the public cares much more about competence and integrity, rather than how left-wing or right-wing a party is. As shown by the fact the Lib Dems were perceived this year as being as centrist as possible, yet they got smashed because they were seen as liars who couldn't run a piss-up in a brewery.

But that doesn't change that it's completely untrue to say that the Tories are in the "centre-ground".

Of course it's true. Labour has currently left the field of battle and gone off to the far outer reaches of God knows where. The LibDems are marked by a grave stone. UKIP are - who knows where? Some dogging car-park in Essex. The Tories currently occupy the centre ground, the centre-left and the centre-right unopposed. Not a happy state of affairs for democracy, but it is hardly our fault. (OK, we take a little of the blame, for burying the LibDems under that grave stone.... But they had it coming.)

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

I struggle to believe that the views of Conservative voters are almost exactly in line with the rest of the public on this. That goes against what pretty much every other poll has shown, and my personal experience. I would have to see it across a number of polls to believe it.

I think it is a Cameron effect.

Dave is extremely popular with the party and voters, if he announces he wants to leave, that's the game changer.

That was exactly my thought. Still a bit surprised by this though. Presumably a significant number of those who thought otherwise are now in UKIP.

OTOH Yougov found Conservative voters split 55/33% in favour of leaving.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

That's like voting against AV just to spite Clegg. UKIP gets destroyed on an out vote I reckon anyway.

The thing is the result in May showed the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP. It's all about building the a big tent that occupies the centre-right ground.

Yep, it's my point - worrying about Farage's ego with your vote on the EU referendum is ludicrous though. Vote out if you think it's a good idea, or "in" if you think that is better !

For 25 years the Tory party has had a major fault line over the EU, Leave possibly makes it worse, a comprehensive vote to remain settles the matter for a generation

THe purpose of the Tories is power. They'll be fine come "in" or "out"

"Think back to your early teachings, TSE. All those who gain power are afraid to lose it, even the Cameroons."

Manchester is going to need some very clever marketing to rebuild its image as a party city.

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

Dair said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

Personally I don't care what the protestors in Manchester get up to. But I would suggest that there is a subtle difference between what they're doing and what goes on at Lewes.

Not a peep when Cameron was burnt in effigy at Lewes in 2010 - but complaints to the police when Salmond got the same treatment:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29921797

Hypocrites R US.....

Neither of us are in a postion to pass comment about who out in the wider world is taking offence at specific incidents. Or indeed who is responsible. I am sure some of the Lewes people were Tories. I am also pretty certain that the effigy of a bankster (I'm pretty sure its a bankster not a Tory hanging there) is the work of the Labour party.

The hypocrisy is how these identical events are dealt with on PB. There is no calls of disgust from SeanT to the Salmond effigies (or anyone else who is complaining in this thread about the bankster hanging over a motorway).

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

That's like voting against AV just to spite Clegg. UKIP gets destroyed on an out vote I reckon anyway.

The thing is the result in May showed the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP. It's all about building the a big tent that occupies the centre-right ground.

Yep, it's my point - worrying about Farage's ego with your vote on the EU referendum is ludicrous though. Vote out if you think it's a good idea, or "in" if you think that is better !

It would seem like the very definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face, to vote against your own beliefs just to make someone else unhappy.

Making someone unhappy who has vowed to destroy the Tory party.

Farage will be gone from the political scene in 15 years time, max. As will Junker and Merkel. As @JEO says it's a very wrong round of looking at things.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See I knew I wasn't the only Pro EU Tory in the party.

Us Pro EUers are in the majority.

Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.

That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)

This poll shows a Remain lead amongst all age groups (including the over 65s) all social classes (including C2s and DEs) and all nations and regions.

That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.

I've been chatting to a few Tories at conference who want to vote to Leave, but the one thing that is stopping them is they won't be able to deal Farage's smug [moderated] face the day after we've voted to Leave.

They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.

Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure

That's like voting against AV just to spite Clegg. UKIP gets destroyed on an out vote I reckon anyway.

The thing is the result in May showed the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP. It's all about building the a big tent that occupies the centre-right ground.

Yep, it's my point - worrying about Farage's ego with your vote on the EU referendum is ludicrous though. Vote out if you think it's a good idea, or "in" if you think that is better !

For 25 years the Tory party has had a major fault line over the EU, Leave possibly makes it worse, a comprehensive vote to remain settles the matter for a generation

But its not that simple: the Tory party has become progressively more sceptical, and less divided, on the EU as time has worn on. For example, the party is fully united on no-euro, repatriation of powers and no more integration now. That certainly wasn't the case from c.1988 to c.2001.

I think that journey has still a way to go. And I certainly don't think a vote to Remain in the 52% to 58% box (and I think it will be in that box) will settle anything.

dr_spyn said:

Manchester is going to need some very clever marketing to rebuild its image as a party city.

Well it's certainly not a Conservative Party city ;p.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MTimT said:

If the country votes to leave, Farage may be smug, but the raison d'être for UKIP is removed .

Not necessarily.

The ANC have long outlasted Apartheid in SA.

India's Congress Party are still around, decades after independence, though they did get a rogering at the 2014 election!

Granted, but independence from colonialism, or overthrowing apartheid are somewhat mightier causes in most of the public's mind than shedding the shackles of Brussels (and increasingly Berlin). Leaving the EU would be correcting a decision we voluntarily took - not true of colonialism or apartheid.

The EU's faults lie in incompetence, bureaucracy and democratic deficit, not racism (which ultimately underpinned both colonialism and apartheid). Somewhat less visceral, and hence less lasting ...

Pulpstar said:

dr_spyn said:

Manchester is going to need some very clever marketing to rebuild its image as a party city.

Well it's certainly not a Conservative Party city ;p.

depends how the boundaries are drawn...

Pulpstar said:

dr_spyn said:

Manchester is going to need some very clever marketing to rebuild its image as a party city.

Well it's certainly not a Conservative Party city ;p.

Beat me to it

isam said:

The kind of attitude the screaming Eagles talks of is why UKIP couldn't just stand aside and let the Tories have the votes they got as Richard Nabavi likes to suggest they should have. Cameron as PM holds massive sway over the referendum result, simply because many conservatives will blindly do whatever he recommends...I would like to see odds on him recommending to leave from people suggesting he may do so....

1) Conservatives won't blindly follow Cameron on this.

2) Cameron will recommend staying In. There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of him recommending Out.

What it comes down to is that, both for Cameron and for a very large proportion of Conservative voters, membership of the EU is seen as an economic necessity. There's lots about it that they don't like, but on balance the idea of leaving doesn't seem a serious option. In any case leaving wouldn't necessarily free the country from the things about the EU which people don't like, so why take the economic risk?

Dair said:

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

Dair said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

SeanT said:

Has the "hanging Tory effigy" story been discussed here already, or something?

To me it is astonishing.

Hasn't been mentioned, as far as I'm aware.

I think it is horrific. It reminds me of Isis or those drug cartels in Mexico.

Yet the kind of person who does such a thing probably seriously thinks of themselves as a caring, compassionate decent sort - not like those Tory scum.

Yes, it's the crass, sickening imagery that shocks - it looks exactly like an ISIS stunt, or a clip in some gays-being-executed snuff movie, from Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The people doing this must know it provokes these associations. Yet do it anyway.

Incredible.

I don't recall your fervent hysteria over the burning of effigies of Alex Salmond last year.

Personally I don't care what the protestors in Manchester get up to. But I would suggest that there is a subtle difference between what they're doing and what goes on at Lewes.

Not a peep when Cameron was burnt in effigy at Lewes in 2010 - but complaints to the police when Salmond got the same treatment:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29921797

Hypocrites R US.....

The hypocrisy is how these identical events are dealt with on PB.

You see these as "identical events"?

Revealing

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

The kind of attitude the screaming Eagles talks of is why UKIP couldn't just stand aside and let the Tories have the votes they got as Richard Nabavi likes to suggest they should have. Cameron as PM holds massive sway over the referendum result, simply because many conservatives will blindly do whatever he recommends...I would like to see odds on him recommending to leave from people suggesting he may do so....

1) Conservatives won't blindly follow Cameron on this.

2) Cameron will recommend staying In. There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of him recommending Out.

What it comes down to is that, both for Cameron and for a very large proportion of Conservative voters, membership of the EU is seen as an economic necessity. There's lots about it that they don't like, but on balance the idea of leaving doesn't seem a serious option. In any case leaving wouldn't necessarily free the country from the things about the EU which people don't like, so why take the economic risk?

Yeah I agree completely on 2. I don't get why people are suggesting he might recommend leave. It's a million to one.

I think it's probably because s lot of people on here just want to be seen to be backing a winner and so are creating a narrative that makes it easy to say they were on the right side whatever the result is.

2/5 stay a good bet in your opinion?

Turning to May, it's all very well and good saying immigration is too high etc.

But she has been Home Secretary for the past 5 years..

Pulpstar said:

Turning to May, it's all very well and good saying immigration is too high etc.

But she has been Home Secretary for the past 5 years..

Andrew Neil pulled her in this on Daily Politics... V strange thing to say considering she is in charge of it.

But it seems to work. Ask people on here and they say she has done a really good job as Home Sec, despite failing at her own measure of success. It seems that if she keeps on saying too much immigration is bad and something must be done, that is enough, even if it gets worse

blackburn63 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

The kind of attitude the screaming Eagles talks of is why UKIP couldn't just stand aside and let the Tories have the votes they got as Richard Nabavi likes to suggest they should have. Cameron as PM holds massive sway over the referendum result, simply because many conservatives will blindly do whatever he recommends...I would like to see odds on him recommending to leave from people suggesting he may do so....

1) Conservatives won't blindly follow Cameron on this.

2) Cameron will recommend staying In. There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of him recommending Out.

What it comes down to is that, both for Cameron and for a very large proportion of Conservative voters, membership of the EU is seen as an economic necessity. There's lots about it that they don't like, but on balance the idea of leaving doesn't seem a serious option. In any case leaving wouldn't necessarily free the country from the things about the EU which people don't like, so why take the economic risk?

But what is the economic risk? We are net contributors.

I don't see Leave or Remain making more than a marginal economic difference either way.

For me, the reasons for leaving are political.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

isam said:

The kind of attitude the screaming Eagles talks of is why UKIP couldn't just stand aside and let the Tories have the votes they got as Richard Nabavi likes to suggest they should have. Cameron as PM holds massive sway over the referendum result, simply because many conservatives will blindly do whatever he recommends...I would like to see odds on him recommending to leave from people suggesting he may do so....

I'm not one of those people, I would say assuming the referendum is 2017 rather than 2016, maybe a 10% chance - the possibility of somethign blowing up which really changes the perceptions of his European colleagues and the European project in his own mind.

There is nothing, I don't think, resting on the renegotiation itself.

I'm not sure what real renegotiation is actually taking place at all.

Cameron did a grand tour in June. Since then he's focussed on trying to square Merkel, who he thinks is the solution to all his problems. Osborne has clearly been up to something EU-wise, but this is the guy who "halved the bill" (no you didn't, George) and there have been a couple of grand international summits on top where the British problem barely got a look in.

And that's about it.

Cameron said he's making "good progress" today, but then the EU say they haven't heard anything from the British "for ages". That probably means British politicians, not technocrats, and that Cameron/Osborne are stalling as there are weekly talks going on all the time:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11893572/Britains-EU-renegotiation-has-stalled-Cameron-told.html

What are we to believe?

If I were a betting man (*ahem*.. sometimes I am) I'd say there's an outline of a deal on a paper opt-out of ever-closer union in a future EU treaty (TBC) and something on extending competitiveness in the single market, probably a lot of verbal technical wrangling between officials about how QMV could be modified (with little political involvement, and no conclusion yet) and absolutely no progress at all on free movement and restricting EU migrant benefits.

It's possible Cameron/May are plotting something semi-nuclear on EU migration to compensate (not sure exactly what yet) judging from their mysterious speeches and comments today, and James Forsyth's analysis.