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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes/Mail EU referendum poll finds CON voters more inclin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes/Mail EU referendum poll finds CON voters more inclined to vote to stay than the electorate as a whole
With the coming EU referendum dominating much of the discussion at the CON conference in Manchester ComRes has new poll for the Mail out showing some quite remarkable findings. As can be seen from the chart CON voters are more inclined to say they want to stay in the EU than the electorate as a whole.
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Us Pro EUers are in the majority.
Tories even more in favour of remaining than the rest of the public and less likely to want to leave than the rest of the public.
That's genuinely amusing (one poll caveat etc etc)
Dave is extremely popular with the party and voters, if he announces he wants to leave, that's the game changer.
Have other polls not shown the leave/remain split much closer than this?
Boris is something of a risk in that he potentially throws away the Cameron strength of gravitas, but he also has strengths which Cameron doesn't: namely people who would ordinarily detest the Tories like him and will be willing to listen to him (especially youngsters).
Osborne conversely lacks many of Cameron's strengths, but doesn't bring anything to the table which Cameron doesn't: he doesn't come across as a natural leader with "gravitas", he's not likeable in the slightest, and he's very transparent at playing political games which the public just doesn't like (see Brown). Yet the Tories are apparently intent on shooting themselves in the foot by choosing him.
Dair said:
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The hanging or burning of effigies has a long and illustrious history in Great Britain.
I believe there is even a national festival dedicated to just such things.
The Tories were all cheering when it was Alex Salmond effigy, now we have fake outrage.
On a serious note, polls can, very occasionally, be wrong.
I did a piece on it a few months ago, saying it was older voters and apathy that might win it for Leave
http://bit.ly/1L4h78T
I still want Dave to convince Brussels and Paris and Berlin that if he doesn't get what he wants to protect the interests of those centre-ground voters, he will - however reluctantly - advice them to vote to leave the EU in the Referendum. Until the Eurocrats believe that, Cameron may ultimately just be remembered as a shit negotiator...
That seems somewhat optimistic to me given other recent polling.
Egging, flouring, soaking, to me these are reasonably borderline activities. I'll faux outrage when the other side do it but laugh if it's my own side.
Burning or hanging effigies, absolutely fine. The Tory hypocrisy over this is stunning but not unexpected.
In the meantime, polls like this don't help Cameron's efforts IMHO as it doesn't give him much leverage to achieve his goals.
Off topic, since when have the Institute of Directors and CBI gone rogue?
The IoD invited Corbyn. Now they're laying into May for anti-immigration rhetoric with all the usual left-wing shibboleths - helpfully quoted by the BBC:
"Director general Simon Walker said:
We are astonished by the irresponsible rhetoric and pandering to anti-immigration sentiment from the home secretary. It is yet another example of the home secretary turning away the world’s best and brightest, putting internal party politics ahead of the country, and helping our competitor economies instead of our own."
Eh? That wasn't her pitch or purpose at all. He sounds like Christian Aid.
I can't recall the last time the CBI were right about anything, and are also now just a bit pathetic - they seem to be a big business producer bureaucracy to me - and they weighed in with:
"Its director general John Cridland says economic migrants "add to the wellness of society". He accepts there are social implications - such as pressures on public services - but concludes that "economic migration is positive for society"."
Back in the day, these institutions were the Thatcherite praetorian guard.
I think anyone relying on the polls is just tossing a coin in the air. I wouldn't touch this market with a bargepole right now.
With regard to public perceptions, that probably comes from the rhetoric. Cameron used to hug huskies, he now hugs kippers.
They don't want to hand victory to a man who has said he wants to destroy the Tory party.
Voting to leave opens a new can of worms and hastens Dave's departure
The poll looks like an outlier to me.
2) The big fault line in the Tory party going forward in my opinion will be those who want to do what is the best for big business and those who want to do best for SMEs
Show me evidence of any Tories hanging/burning an image of a lefty...
Any...
And before you wheel out the Salmond bonfire story, let me refresh you:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29921797
This was not Tories burning Salmond in protest.
In fact, I seem to remember several people on here saying how distasteful it was.
I won't vote, or reconsider my vote, on how the whole country is fundamentally governed in future based upon antipathy to one (now irrelevant) and slightly ridiculous politician.
I am wondering though if Farage truly does want us to leave if it means his power and position is eclipsed (which is another way of looking at it, and should be another reason for Tories to vote "no")
As for the new can of worms, will the losing Inners in the party really want to undermine the party's chances in 2020 just because they are sore losers?
Hadn't realized the Tory membership was full of such wusses.
Anyway, must roam round the Tory stands. See some of you at 1745, maybe.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29921797
Hypocrites R US.....
It seems to be contagious.
But that doesn't change that it's completely untrue to say that the Tories are in the "centre-ground".
(And that Frau Merkel is doing her best to ensure a UK departure)
Typical 'crackdown' 'we've got this covered' modern senior politician.
In reality 300,000 net immigrants shows the gap between her rhetoric and her results is yawning.
May goes for the Kippers.
Boris goes for the young vote and metropolitan professionals.
Osborne goes for the soft Labourites.
All your votes belong to us.
The ANC have long outlasted Apartheid in SA.
India's Congress Party are still around, decades after independence, though they did get a rogering at the 2014 election!
I think you're right but time is short for people (even Cam supporters) to work out what they have or haven't got. We already have, literally, uncontrolled immigration (the govt wanted and failed to control it).
People are therefore pretty aware of what is to come with "IN".
I'm not 100% sure Cam can do anything about it either so he will have to come back with something super-amazing to change set opinions.
The hypocrisy is how these identical events are dealt with on PB. There is no calls of disgust from SeanT to the Salmond effigies (or anyone else who is complaining in this thread about the bankster hanging over a motorway).
I think that journey has still a way to go. And I certainly don't think a vote to Remain in the 52% to 58% box (and I think it will be in that box) will settle anything.
There is nothing, I don't think, resting on the renegotiation itself.
2 - Yes but l don't think that there is anything new in this. CBl is usually the corporatist bellyacher though not the lOD
The greatest danger our country faces is the ignorance of do-gooders.
The EU's faults lie in incompetence, bureaucracy and democratic deficit, not racism (which ultimately underpinned both colonialism and apartheid). Somewhat less visceral, and hence less lasting ...
Theresa may...
2) Cameron will recommend staying In. There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of him recommending Out.
What it comes down to is that, both for Cameron and for a very large proportion of Conservative voters, membership of the EU is seen as an economic necessity. There's lots about it that they don't like, but on balance the idea of leaving doesn't seem a serious option. In any case leaving wouldn't necessarily free the country from the things about the EU which people don't like, so why take the economic risk?
I am with Ruth Davidson on this. It is not a first order issue for me at all. It is a cost benefit analysis and the balance is pretty finely struck. If we had a credible and cohesive plan for Out I think (unlike Ruth) I would probably vote for it but this is looking less likely by the day.
In some ways it is a pity; if Cameron persuaded the other EU leaders that out was really possible it would strengthen their hand but those of that mind set seem much more focussed on grumbling about trivia than making the case.
Revealing
Theresa May speech:
Rivers of Crud
#CPC15
I think it's probably because s lot of people on here just want to be seen to be backing a winner and so are creating a narrative that makes it easy to say they were on the right side whatever the result is.
2/5 stay a good bet in your opinion?
which is linked to from here
http://wingsoverscotland.com/indyref-finances-at-a-glance/
But she has been Home Secretary for the past 5 years..
If it's Lewes you are getting upset about, that's a largely non-party-political regional heritage event.
I think the EU migrant crisis will die down as a factor when the press get bored with it, but it's still a bit of a wildcard and could flare up again next year.
But it seems to work. Ask people on here and they say she has done a really good job as Home Sec, despite failing at her own measure of success. It seems that if she keeps on saying too much immigration is bad and something must be done, that is enough, even if it gets worse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11913626/Great-British-Bake-Off-rocked-by-10000-betting-scandal-allegations.html
For me, the reasons for leaving are political.
Cameron did a grand tour in June. Since then he's focussed on trying to square Merkel, who he thinks is the solution to all his problems. Osborne has clearly been up to something EU-wise, but this is the guy who "halved the bill" (no you didn't, George) and there have been a couple of grand international summits on top where the British problem barely got a look in.
And that's about it.
Cameron said he's making "good progress" today, but then the EU say they haven't heard anything from the British "for ages". That probably means British politicians, not technocrats, and that Cameron/Osborne are stalling as there are weekly talks going on all the time:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11893572/Britains-EU-renegotiation-has-stalled-Cameron-told.html
What are we to believe?
If I were a betting man (*ahem*.. sometimes I am) I'd say there's an outline of a deal on a paper opt-out of ever-closer union in a future EU treaty (TBC) and something on extending competitiveness in the single market, probably a lot of verbal technical wrangling between officials about how QMV could be modified (with little political involvement, and no conclusion yet) and absolutely no progress at all on free movement and restricting EU migrant benefits.
It's possible Cameron/May are plotting something semi-nuclear on EU migration to compensate (not sure exactly what yet) judging from their mysterious speeches and comments today, and James Forsyth's analysis.