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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : October 1st 20

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  • Options
    JEO said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LAB: 31% (+1)
    UKIP: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    (via YouGov / 30 Sep - 01 Oct)

    Is that the biggest share for UKIP since the election?
    Yup, highest in this parliament was 16% a fortnight ago
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Spot on. The more I see of him, the more transparent it becomes - all that non-answering and deflecting/shutting down legitimate questioning with You Don't Understand The New Politics.

    It's not new - it's classic old Lefty. I remain amazed at some people being hookwinked by it or thinking he's some kindly old uncle. Just look at the company he keeps. That says it all.

    watford30 said:

    John_M said:

    Roger said:

    OKC

    "Somewhat to my surprise today several of my OAP friends...... "

    And as we keep being told they're the ones who vote. Perhaps the Tories on here really are seeing the zeitgeist change. I've been wondering why the plethora of pointless posts begging anyone who'll listen that Corbyn's a dud. Not since the last election have the Tories seemed so paranoid

    Having watched him for a week it's obvious he's not another Michael Foot. He was eccentric but appeared feeble and confused. Corbyn seems anything but......avuncular and confident and unlike Cameron-who seems like a cipher-a man with his own ideas

    Pfft, Corbyn can't even write an original conference speech. Foot had ten times the intellect of the current dimwit leading Labour. Foot was anti-appeasement, anti EU and an avowed anti-fascist.

    You seem to think that the Right are worried about Corbyn. Personally, I'm not. I'm terrified. The thought that there is even a miniscule chance of him being elected gives me the willies, in a way that Brown and Milliband never did. We could recover from those two. I'm not so sure about Corbyn and his motley crew.

    Fortunately, I'm confident that Corbyn's hollowness will be easily exposed once the electoral campaign begins in earnest.
    People admiring Corbyn are mistaking slyness for sincerity.
    Sort of on the subject. Did you see the DP on Tuesday try to tag JC on one of their silly balls polls about whether Labour members or MPs should make policy. As he walked away without responding, they tried to dig him out by telling him that it was in line with his calls for transparent democracy (or some such). JC turned and said "but you ask the questions". It was very light hearted but is not the first time JC has shown that he really thinks that the only questions he should be expected to answer are those that he wants asked.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Yes, that's only a micro-bounce! I suspect there's a lot of churn in that - I know people heading both ways.

    To reply to Omnium FPT - yes, of course, Corbyn's interview didn't offer a detailed programme for government. But for 10 minutes setting out the general approach it was really good for people like me, just as it was so bad for plato that she felt it was worth highlighting. "Marmite" sums it up.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    Essential reading for anyone who "liked what Corbyn was saying"

    @robertshrimsley: This is very good -Corbyn's Nirvana fallacy https://t.co/zuo3ylJp0J

    That is very good. He has lofty aims but very few plans to bring them about, he doesn't want to sully his hands with actually wielding any power which explains the last three decades of his career in Westminster.
    Re the nirvana article...
    It is repeating what I have been saying - problems do not have perfect or sometimes any solutions. And you cannot uninvent nuclear weapons. They are cheap they are easy. The nuclear mobilisation race would probably be more dangerous than the nuclear arms race.
    Nuclear weapons are neither cheap or easy. The theoretical science that underpins them is understood by pretty much any physics undergrad, but that isnt enough.

    Acquiring the necessary materials at the grade needed, the engineering of the actual bomb and then the development of a delivery system is very far from easy. Outside of devices of those five members of the non proliferation treaty, I would suspect the failure rate of a device to successfully hit a target and detonate would be close to 100%.
    Pakistan and North Korea have the bomb, that's how difficult it is. When no one has the bomb (allegedly) and then trust breaks down at some time in the then future are you saying that a country li!e India could not easily regain the bomb or say Brazil or Australia ?
    The argument that disarmament would be even more dangerous is certainly not a perfect one but it is valid.
    It took them both forty years of hard research, despite already standing on the shoulders of giants.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    If Mr Corbyn became Prime Minister, 44% of Britain said they would be dismayed compared to just 18% who would be delighted.

    In 2010, Ed Miliband’s figures in 2010 were 28% dismayed versus 20% delighted.

    Clear majorities also think Labour hasn’t faced up to the damage they did to the economy – a view backed by 56% – and they would put the country into even more debt – backed by 53%.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll - Corbyn judged worst new Opposition Leader since polls began in 1955; https://t.co/oewvcU7Jse https://t.co/EXq8cokRmz

    The only way is up then!
  • Options

    Correction, via Matt Singh.

    CON 37 (-2)
    LAB 31 (=)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 17 (+1)
    GRN 2 (-1)

    So no Lab bounce during conference week. In the grand scheme of things that not soooo bad

    The death of UKIP I see.
    Polls schmolls. Was only a week ago they were on 7%
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,081
    SeanT said:

    EPG said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    London's getting wealthier, which is great for London and you will mostly hear these stories about a small number of London schools.
    It's not money that has changed the school I visited, it's a change in attitude. It's a school saying - this is a Christian school, with BRITISH values. Wear your damn uniform, do your damn homework, call the teacher Sir or Madam, and you will prosper. If not, you will be punished and then expelled. And remember this is a school with a very tough intake, judging by free school meals.

    The head boy was a black kid doing 4 A levels, the girl who showed us around was a black girl bursting with pride about her school, and going on to Uni.

    It was quite inspiring. And encouraging. How often do you visit a school that has a poster of the Queen on the wall and another poster next to it, emblazoned with the Union Jack, saying Respect British Values.

    And you know what? The open day of the school was so over subscribed, this evening, they had to open a second hall for aspiring parents to hear the head's speech. I'd say 80% of them were immigrants or non-Brit.
    I'm not sure how one can say definitively it's not money. I'm sure it's lots of things but one always hears these stories about London schools in communities with lots of second-generation minorities. London is getting richer, more than ever attracting the most talented people in every field, including teachers. It's really good for London.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    edited October 2015
    If people don't like Assad, simply impose free and fair elections. If Assad gets his marching orders, fine. If he's returned with a rollicking majority and a three day street party, there's going to be a lot of red faces. The fact is the US coalition has said (though this position is rapidly slipping away) that he cannot have any part in Syria's future. Why? Surely this is for Syrians to decide.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    notme said:

    Finally installing Windows 10. Any tips?

    Go through the privacy settings with a fine tooth comb. If you are using a microsoft account , and the only one on the computer, go to the run command and type netplwiz, untick user must enter password every time, you will get a prompt put in your microsoft account email address and password.

    If you are moving from windows 8, you will breath a sigh of relief and go 'thank f***, that was awful, who thought windows 8 was good?'.

    From windows 7, it is a bit trickier. The start menu is not as useful or customisable and windows 7, though the machine is much quicker.
    Thanks. Shall do.
  • Options
    I remember last year there was a 5% swing to the Tories the day after Dave's speech with YouGov.

    Just saying, this might not be the low point for Labour.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    SeanT said:

    EPG said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    London's getting wealthier, which is great for London and you will mostly hear these stories about a small number of London schools.
    It's not money that has changed the school I visited, it's a change in attitude. It's a school saying - this is a Christian school, with BRITISH values. Wear your damn uniform, do your damn homework, call the teacher Sir or Madam, and you will prosper. If not, you will be punished and then expelled. And remember this is a school with a very tough intake, judging by free school meals.

    The head boy was a black kid doing 4 A levels, the girl who showed us around was a black girl bursting with pride about her school, and going on to Uni.

    It was quite inspiring. And encouraging. How often do you visit a school that has a poster of the Queen on the wall and another poster next to it, emblazoned with the Union Jack, saying Respect British Values.

    And you know what? The open day of the school was so over subscribed, this evening, they had to open a second hall for aspiring parents to hear the head's speech. I'd say 80% of them were immigrants or non-Brit.
    Very heartening.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll - Corbyn judged worst new Opposition Leader since polls began in 1955; https://t.co/oewvcU7Jse https://t.co/EXq8cokRmz

    The only way is up then!
    Except, he could go down even further. What's the lower limit?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Awesome Lib Dem bar chart via Shadsy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg

    You should warn people who might click on that they could end up choking or spraying their drink over the keyboard.
    PBers are well versed in Lib Dem bar charts

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
    They aren't usually quite that... umm... awesome?
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    John_M said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    The local elections like politics in general - too much SNP for my liking.

    But surely you're heavy into Labour wins tonight.

    After all the PB Tories are so certain that the Hyslop non story and Thomson poison are going to destroy the SNP. Not to mention that Corbyn is elected now and will destroy the SNP all on his own.
    What? I've not seen any such prediction from any of the right of centre folk on here. Thomson is a 9 day wonder. The only question about Scottish politics is that state of SLAB in 2016. Are they to be inconsequential or irrelevant?

    Scotland is lost to the Union. It's just taking a while to dawn on the folk down south. Scotland needs to be independent for it to develop the normal political spectrum.
    I agree with the sentiment of your last sentence but "lost" doesn't quite hit the spot - it lacks the "good riddance" factor.
  • Options
    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll - Corbyn judged worst new Opposition Leader since polls began in 1955; https://t.co/oewvcU7Jse https://t.co/EXq8cokRmz

    The only way is up then!
    Except, he could go down even further. What's the lower limit?
    Brown polled in the teens, but that was during the longest and deepest recession since records began.

    I think Corbyn will not better that paucity
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    notme said:

    notme said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    Essential reading for anyone who "liked what Corbyn was saying"

    @robertshrimsley: This is very good -Corbyn's Nirvana fallacy https://t.co/zuo3ylJp0J

    That is very good. He has lofty aims but very few plans to bring them about, he doesn't want to sully his hands with actually wielding any power which explains the last three decades of his career in Westminster.
    Re the nirvana article...
    It is repeating what I have been saying - problems do not have perfect or sometimes any solutions. And you cannot uninvent nuclear weapons. They are cheap they are easy. The nuclear mobilisation race would probably be more dangerous than the nuclear arms race.
    Nuclear weapons are neither cheap or easy. The theoretical science that underpins them is understood by pretty much any physics undergrad, but that isnt enough.

    Acquiring the necessary materials at the grade needed, the engineering of the actual bomb and then the development of a delivery system is very far from easy. Outside of devices of those five members of the non proliferation treaty, I would suspect the failure rate of a device to successfully hit a target and detonate would be close to 100%.
    Pakistan and North Korea have the bomb, that's how difficult it is. When no one has the bomb (allegedly) and then trust breaks down at some time in the then future are you saying that a country li!e India could not easily regain the bomb or say Brazil or Australia ?
    The argument that disarmament would be even more dangerous is certainly not a perfect one but it is valid.
    It took them both forty years of hard research, despite already standing on the shoulders of giants.
    Genie is out of the bottle. Cannot be uninvented.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @trewloy: More info on the Law Society handling of Hales case here. https://t.co/JnCC5lBHKr
    Legal sources said the Crown Office first asked the Law Society for details and extra information about the case in December 2014 and again in April 2015, but was not told that Thomson was linked to the alleged fraud until two months after the general election.

    Sturgeon then implied that had she known of the suspicions around Thomson’s property dealings, she would never have been selected to stand for the SNP. A large, full-colour photograph of Thomson was cut down from the window of the SNP’s Edinburgh West office on Wednesday.
  • Options

    UKIP at 17% - migration crisis having an effect maybe but 71% thinking labour need to make major changes to be fit for government and Corbyn the worst opposition leader ever when he has had wall to wall coverage with no other party receiving coverage is surely the end of the line. Interesting how the Conservative Conference will be covered with a positive aspirational message against Labour's doom and gloom

    Yes. The Cons don't need to go all out attack on Corbyn but do a compare and contrast. I predict we will see a lot more mentions of the word "British" not to mention "deficit" and immigration"

    Regarding Sweden, clearly not everyone agrees as this chart shows the ruling Social Democrats falling while the Sweden Democrats are on the rise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018
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    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Awesome Lib Dem bar chart via Shadsy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg

    You should warn people who might click on that they could end up choking or spraying their drink over the keyboard.
    PBers are well versed in Lib Dem bar charts

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
    They aren't usually quite that... umm... awesome?
    It was something JohnLoony came up with, it cheered us all up
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    It's not money that has changed the school I visited, it's a change in attitude. It's a school saying - this is a Christian school, with BRITISH values.

    I suspect there are very significant numbers of people in the UK who do not associate Nuns in the corridors with BRITISH values.

    Just the opposite, I would think.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Awesome Lib Dem bar chart via Shadsy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg

    You should warn people who might click on that they could end up choking or spraying their drink over the keyboard.
    PBers are well versed in Lib Dem bar charts

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
    They aren't usually quite that... umm... awesome?
    There surely has to be an example out there somewhere where they accidentally had the wrong numbers and the LD being the only one 'able to win' was actually lower than one of the other bars. I dearly hope so.

    IIRC UKIP's own take on dodgy bar charts is to use Euro results as showing only they can win, or that they can win, for Local and Parliamentary seats where obviously they poll a lot worse, generally.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    If it hasnt already being pointed out, 1 oct 2010, at the end of the lab party conference voting intention Yougov, so same point in the cycle:

    Lab 41
    Con 39
    lib 11
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I saw a comment elsewhere that delegates/speakers at #cpc15 have been asked not to go hard on Corbyn.

    No need to interrupt Labour here.

    UKIP at 17% - migration crisis having an effect maybe but 71% thinking labour need to make major changes to be fit for government and Corbyn the worst opposition leader ever when he has had wall to wall coverage with no other party receiving coverage is surely the end of the line. Interesting how the Conservative Conference will be covered with a positive aspirational message against Labour's doom and gloom

    Yes. The Cons don't need to go all out attack on Corbyn but do a compare and contrast. I predict we will see a lot more mentions of the word "British" not to mention "deficit" and immigration"

    Regarding Sweden, clearly not everyone agrees as this chart shows the ruling Social Democrats falling while the Sweden Democrats are on the rise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2015

    Correction, via Matt Singh.

    CON 37 (-2)
    LAB 31 (=)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 17 (+1)
    GRN 2 (-1)

    So no Lab bounce during conference week. In the grand scheme of things that not soooo bad

    The death of UKIP I see.
    Yes so it seems.. by any measurable standard they have just faded away after that record breaking, vote quadrupling, humiliating election disaster

    How they misjudged the public mood with their constant immigration concerns
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Roger said:

    OKC

    "Somewhat to my surprise today several of my OAP friends...... "

    And as we keep being told they're the ones who vote. Perhaps the Tories on here really are seeing the zeitgeist change. I've been wondering why the plethora of pointless posts begging anyone who'll listen that Corbyn's a dud. Not since the last election have the Tories seemed so paranoid

    Having watched him for a week it's obvious he's not another Michael Foot. He was eccentric but appeared feeble and confused. Corbyn seems anything but......avuncular and confident and unlike Cameron-who seems like a cipher-a man with his own ideas

    I think most of the posters on here have watched him for more than a week and come to the completely opposite conclusion. Avuncular? I had to look it up to make sure there isn't a definition I wasn't aware of. I'd say "Child Catcher" was a more appropriate description.
    Narky
    Thank you
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Tonights YG GICIPM
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015
    Roger said:
    Were you a friend of the Krays?

    "Oh, that Bashar, he's a lovely boy. Never forgets to take a bottle of Arak and some Baklava over to his mum's on a Friday. Such a pretty wife - the way she decorates those barrel bombs with hand painted flowers is delightful. And you can always leave your front door unlocked in Damascus, no one ever gets burgled...'
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11904376/Oxford-University-Student-Union-bans-free-speech-magazine-because-it-is-offensive.html

    Student journalists at the University of Oxford were dismayed to find out that their magazine - which promotes free speech - was banned from Fresher's Fair because the Student's Union was worried people would find it offensive.

    VERSA news, another student publication at the prestigious university, reported that the magazine, 'No Offence', was banned from being handed out to new students during Fresher's week.
    One expects student unions to be stupid, bigoted, and intolerant, but even allowing for that, there seems to be something wrong with British universities right now.
    Don't the union have the right not to be forced to publicise a set of views just because some contrarian Brendan O'Neill-type young fogey wants to?
    I'm sure the Union do have the legal right to prevent the distribution of opinions that dissent from their own ultra-left views. But, I doubt if that is desirable or reasonable.
    Is it desirable for a student union to organise and finance publicity for jokes or levity about "racism, sexual violence, and homophobia"?

    It depends if they're funny.
  • Options
    How does that change with the new boundaries
  • Options

    How does that change with the new boundaries
    I reckon probably a Tory majority of 20ish.

    That's a guessetimate
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: More info on the Law Society handling of Hales case here. https://t.co/JnCC5lBHKr

    Legal sources said the Crown Office first asked the Law Society for details and extra information about the case in December 2014 and again in April 2015, but was not told that Thomson was linked to the alleged fraud until two months after the general election.

    Sturgeon then implied that had she known of the suspicions around Thomson’s property dealings, she would never have been selected to stand for the SNP. A large, full-colour photograph of Thomson was cut down from the window of the SNP’s Edinburgh West office on Wednesday.


    The Crown Office is not an investigatory body.

    This claim is bullshit.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,868
    notme said:

    notme said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    Essential reading for anyone who "liked what Corbyn was saying"

    @robertshrimsley: This is very good -Corbyn's Nirvana fallacy https://t.co/zuo3ylJp0J

    That is very good. He has lofty aims but very few plans to bring them about, he doesn't want to sully his hands with actually wielding any power which explains the last three decades of his career in Westminster.
    Re the nirvana article...
    It is repeating what I have been saying - problems do not have perfect or sometimes any solutions. And you cannot uninvent nuclear weapons. They are cheap they are easy. The nuclear mobilisation race would probably be more dangerous than the nuclear arms race.
    Nuclear weapons are neither cheap or easy. The theoretical science that underpins them is understood by pretty much any physics undergrad, but that isnt enough.

    Acquiring the necessary materials at the grade needed, the engineering of the actual bomb and then the development of a delivery system is very far from easy. Outside of devices of those five members of the non proliferation treaty, I would suspect the failure rate of a device to successfully hit a target and detonate would be close to 100%.
    Pakistan and North Korea have the bomb, that's how difficult it is. When no one has the bomb (allegedly) and then trust breaks down at some time in the then future are you saying that a country li!e India could not easily regain the bomb or say Brazil or Australia ?
    The argument that disarmament would be even more dangerous is certainly not a perfect one but it is valid.
    It took them both forty years of hard research, despite already standing on the shoulders of giants.
    In neither case did their bomb programs take 40 years. The main issue they had was cost - they are very, very poor countries.

    An interesting counterpoint was the South African program - which was a minimum cost effort in a more developed economy. 10 years from start to first bomb.
  • Options

    How does that change with the new boundaries
    I reckon probably a Tory majority of 20ish.

    That's a guessetimate
    Thanks for that
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited October 2015
    Has all the hallmarks of the abolition of the 10p tax

    George Osborne must ring fence the working poor from his huge cuts to tax credits – or face political disaster, Boris Johnson has warned him.

    The Tory Mayor of London has emerged at the head of a growing cross-party revolt to soften the blow of the Chancellor’s landmark £4.5bn axe to state wage subsidies for workers who earn under £30,000.

    The controversial move from next April will see Britain’s 3.2 million lower paid households lose an average of £1,350 a year.

    http://bit.ly/1KUomQK
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    It's not money that has changed the school I visited, it's a change in attitude. It's a school saying - this is a Christian school, with BRITISH values.

    I suspect there are very significant numbers of people in the UK who do not associate Nuns in the corridors with BRITISH values.

    Just the opposite, I would think.
    We used to have an Irish nurse who was a muslim convert for a period. She wore a UHL coloured headscarf that matches the nurses uniform. Once I asked a patient which nurse was looking after her. Her reply "the Irish Nun"! It took me a few moments before the penny dropped and I realised who she meant!

    Nuns? Chador? Whats the difference?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see Sweden has received 6,827 asylum claims over the past week. This, in a nation of 8.5 m people. This is a country whose government is mad.

    Yes, I believe Sweden may be the country where the Ideal of Multiculturalism is first tested to total destruction. A quick Google of the words "Malmo" added to "bombs" or "rape" shows why.

    Not so much a nation heaping up its own funeral pyre as standing on top of it, pouring a can of petrol over its head, and setting light to it.
    Yes it is obvious that Sweden's long-term policy of welcoming refugees has led to massive destruction of its wealth and massive dissatisfaction with life outcomes according to all domestic and international observers. In fact, you cannot get flights to Sweden any more because all the demand is for flights out of the country by Swedish refugees looking for safe havens in St Helens and other mainly-white towns where they feel safe among their fellow white people and which are better-off than Sweden.
    If you say so, it must be even worse than I thought.
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    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Awesome Lib Dem bar chart via Shadsy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg

    You should warn people who might click on that they could end up choking or spraying their drink over the keyboard.
    PBers are well versed in Lib Dem bar charts

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
    They aren't usually quite that... umm... awesome?
    There surely has to be an example out there somewhere where they accidentally had the wrong numbers and the LD being the only one 'able to win' was actually lower than one of the other bars. I dearly hope so.

    IIRC UKIP's own take on dodgy bar charts is to use Euro results as showing only they can win, or that they can win, for Local and Parliamentary seats where obviously they poll a lot worse, generally.
    Lib Dems fighting hard to keep the distrust of voters?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Isn't that a majority of 4 thanks to Sinn Fein?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Awesome Lib Dem bar chart via Shadsy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg

    You should warn people who might click on that they could end up choking or spraying their drink over the keyboard.
    PBers are well versed in Lib Dem bar charts

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
    They aren't usually quite that... umm... awesome?
    There surely has to be an example out there somewhere where they accidentally had the wrong numbers and the LD being the only one 'able to win' was actually lower than one of the other bars. I dearly hope so.

    IIRC UKIP's own take on dodgy bar charts is to use Euro results as showing only they can win, or that they can win, for Local and Parliamentary seats where obviously they poll a lot worse, generally.
    Worst ever bar chart I have ever seen was by Labour.

    It was "Only Labour can beat the Tories here" with Labour in second place ahead of the Lib Dems.

    Is only when you read the back of the leaflet that numbers they had used was for a recent national poll and not the last result in the seat where they were about 20% behind in third place.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school. Children need structure and values, the more so if they are from unstructured and valueless family backgrounds.

    This is why free schools and academies were such a brilliant idea. You free headteachers to make the reforms that both they and parents know work. The left-wing local authorities and unions that allow ideology to triumph over experience are removed from the equation.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    It's not money that has changed the school I visited, it's a change in attitude. It's a school saying - this is a Christian school, with BRITISH values.

    I suspect there are very significant numbers of people in the UK who do not associate Nuns in the corridors with BRITISH values.

    Just the opposite, I would think.
    I think there are quite a lot of people who would regard Sean T's daughter's school as conflicting with British values.
  • Options
    Dair said:

    Isn't that a majority of 4 thanks to Sinn Fein?
    On paper becomes a majority of 6.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2015
    Dair said:

    The Crown Office is not an investigatory body.

    This claim is bullshit.

    Why do you post stuff like this?
    The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) is Scotland’s prosecution service. We receive reports about crimes from the police and other reporting agencies and then decide what action to take, including whether to prosecute someone.
    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/about-us/about-us

    Stick to VAT
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Just for doubters re how relatively popular cable news networks are in the US http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/10/01/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-september-30-2015/474972/

    Look at the Fox numbers.
  • Options
    Urgh Charlotte Church on #BBCQT I wonder who the loony left individual this week is going to be?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Just for doubters re how relatively popular cable news networks are in the US http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/10/01/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-september-30-2015/474972/

    Look at the Fox numbers.

    - and the truly dire MSNBC
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    John_M said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    The local elections like politics in general - too much SNP for my liking.

    But surely you're heavy into Labour wins tonight.

    After all the PB Tories are so certain that the Hyslop non story and Thomson poison are going to destroy the SNP. Not to mention that Corbyn is elected now and will destroy the SNP all on his own.
    What? I've not seen any such prediction from any of the right of centre folk on here. Thomson is a 9 day wonder. The only question about Scottish politics is that state of SLAB in 2016. Are they to be inconsequential or irrelevant?

    Scotland is lost to the Union. It's just taking a while to dawn on the folk down south. Scotland needs to be independent for it to develop the normal political spectrum.
    I agree with the sentiment of your last paragraph but "lost" doesn't quite hit the spot - it lacks the "good riddance" factor.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Urgh Charlotte Church on #BBCQT I wonder who the loony left individual this week is going to be?

    Charlotte Church
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278

    How does that change with the new boundaries
    Biggest gainers since the election then are UKIP and EU ref still two years away
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    The Crown Office is not an investigatory body.

    This claim is bullshit.

    Why do yopu post stuff like this?
    The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) is Scotland’s prosecution service. We receive reports about crimes from the police and other reporting agencies and then decide what action to take, including whether to prosecute someone.
    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/about-us/about-us

    Stick to VAT

    The Crown Office is therefore, by your own quote, not an investigatory body.

    There is no way the Crown Office would approach the Law Society to ask for the outcome of an investigation. It relies on reports of recognised bodies which it will then consider for prosecution.

    That;s how the body works. It is a receiving body not an investigatory body. There is no system, and no process by which the Crown Office could know about this case and no way it can "request a report and further information" from the Law Society.

    The story is utter bullshit. FFS, it's in the Guardian. That should be setting off alarm bells without reading the text.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The NY Jets are playing in London.

    They are taking 350 rolls of toilet paper with them.

    Why?
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
    Indeed it is.

    Out of curiosity what do you view as the worst/unfairest result?

    Polling 13% and getting only 1 MP.

    or polling 25% and getting only 23 MPs
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Stephen Kinnock being made to look like an idiot by Corbyn's policy on QT.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    SeanT said:

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school. Children need structure and values, the more so if they are from unstructured and valueless family backgrounds.

    This is why free schools and academies were such a brilliant idea. You free headteachers to make the reforms that both they and parents know work. The left-wing local authorities and unions that allow ideology to triumph over experience are removed from the equation.
    Absolutely right. Ask the 100s of parents who crowded into that state school tonight, desperate to get their kids into a rigid, disciplined, aspirational environment. You could see it in their eyes. My son lacks a father, my daughter lacks respect, in this school they will be guided and disciplined and, most of all, given a chance.

    It was actually quite moving.

    The school is in the top 1% in the country for science.
    If it wasn't beneath a best selling author I would advise you to write this up and flog it, it would make excellent DM copy. (I'm not being disparaging I think it would be a genuinely 'good news' type piece for that type of publication)
  • Options
    Wow Kinnock is absolutely floundering on QT.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    There is no system, and no process by which the Crown Office could know about this case and no way it can "request a report and further information" from the Law Society.

    The Law Society "informally" told the Crown Office, so they knew about it

    The Crown Office were asking for the formal report
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Just for doubters re how relatively popular cable news networks are in the US http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/10/01/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-september-30-2015/474972/

    Look at the Fox numbers.

    You do understand what MSNBC and HLN are? Or are you just compring CNN to Fox?
  • Options
    antifrank said:

    My anecdotal experience is quite the reverse of Old King Cole's. I've come across vaguely right-on lawyers who are embarrassed at the shambles of Labour under Jeremy Corbyn. Quiet Conservatives are now openly making their preference known. Right now it would be embarrassing to admit to seeing any appeal in Jeremy Corbyn among the professionals that I know, which would certainly never have been the case even with Ed Miliband.

    Jeremy Corbyn has a real problem brewing with those who value professionalism.

    I'd thought that left-leaning urban professionals would stay loyal to Labour but I can envisage quite a few of them drifting to abstention or a harmless vote for the Lib Dems.

    It's OK, Jeremy will make up for that with his views on immigration which appeal so strongly to traditional white working-class ex-Labour supporters and white-van man. Or something.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school. Children need structure and values, the more so if they are from unstructured and valueless family backgrounds.

    This is why free schools and academies were such a brilliant idea. You free headteachers to make the reforms that both they and parents know work. The left-wing local authorities and unions that allow ideology to triumph over experience are removed from the equation.
    I'm very much on side. It was an observation, not a particularly astute one
  • Options
    Even Plaid Cymru tearing Corbyn apart on this idiocy.

    Corbyn should have changed Labour's policy on Trident to abolitionism if he's not prepared to use it. To keep it but never use it is the most inane policy imaginable.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    For the hard of understanding...
    Messer first informally told the Crown Office in December 2014 that Hales had been struck off by the SSDT for suspected mortgage fraud, during a routine quarterly meeting between the two organisations. Crown Office lawyers asked Messer to provide them with detailed case files but failed to get them.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dair said:

    Just for doubters re how relatively popular cable news networks are in the US http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/10/01/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-september-30-2015/474972/

    Look at the Fox numbers.

    You do understand what MSNBC and HLN are? Or are you just compring CNN to Fox?
    What are they?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Sean_F said:

    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
    Looks like 37% for economically right parties and 63% for centrist and left parties.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
    Indeed it is.

    Out of curiosity what do you view as the worst/unfairest result?

    Polling 13% and getting only 1 MP.

    or polling 25% and getting only 23 MPs
    I think the Alliance did get a rough deal. I'd say they had it worse. Most UKIP people were disappointed with one seat, but no one expected more than 10, on an extraordinary night (4-6 was the consensus). But, you'd expect 100 seats with 25%.
  • Options
    watford30 said:

    Urgh Charlotte Church on #BBCQT I wonder who the loony left individual this week is going to be?

    Charlotte Church
    Yes the question was rhetorical lol
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:
    JEO said:

    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...

  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    JEO said:

    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...

    Church is a key Corbynite demographic. Thick as two short planks.
    Well these days she is off key.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
    Indeed it is.

    Out of curiosity what do you view as the worst/unfairest result?

    Polling 13% and getting only 1 MP.

    or polling 25% and getting only 23 MPs
    I think the Alliance did get a rough deal. I'd say they had it worse. Most UKIP people were disappointed with one seat, but no one expected more than 10, on an extraordinary night (4-6 was the consensus). But, you'd expect 100 seats with 25%.
    Thanks, that was I was thinking, just wanted other people's opinions on it.

    I had a discussion with someone on it this evening, it could have been much worse for UKIP, say Carswell hadn't defected, then UKIP would have polled 13% and got no MPs.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    How does that change with the new boundaries
    Biggest gainers since the election then are UKIP and EU ref still two years away
    Looks like it and Corbyn has no answers to the refugee/migrant crisis other than open our borders. The Syria Russia/USA/ Iran conflict will dominate for ages and the EU will become a political conflict zone itself as individual Nations will act in their own interests as their population will demand it. Looking at the economy and geo-political matters Labour have become a self indulgent irrelevance and that is not at all good for the UK
  • Options
    Tim_B said:

    The NY Jets are playing in London.

    They are taking 350 rolls of toilet paper with them.

    Why?

    Because the UK paper is too thin for the big US lard arses.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    She's coming across as rather dim, irrespective of her political persuasion.

    JEO said:

    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...

    Church is a key Corbynite demographic. Thick as two short planks.
    Well these days she is off key.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    watford30 said:

    Urgh Charlotte Church on #BBCQT I wonder who the loony left individual this week is going to be?

    Charlotte Church
    Yes the question was rhetorical lol
    The blurb in the paper giving the panel listed her as a 'campaigner'.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Stephen Kinnock was trying very hard not to say Corbyn's a nitwit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    JEO said:

    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...

    As encouraging as the scale of his victory within the party was, that would indeed be an awful narrow definition of a mandate, although I suppose if what you want is a realignment of a political party rather than achieve victory for the policies of that party, he does have the largest mandate ever for that.
  • Options
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11904376/Oxford-University-Student-Union-bans-free-speech-magazine-because-it-is-offensive.html

    Student journalists at the University of Oxford were dismayed to find out that their magazine - which promotes free speech - was banned from Fresher's Fair because the Student's Union was worried people would find it offensive.

    VERSA news, another student publication at the prestigious university, reported that the magazine, 'No Offence', was banned from being handed out to new students during Fresher's week.
    One expects student unions to be stupid, bigoted, and intolerant, but even allowing for that, there seems to be something wrong with British universities right now.
    How are student unions even allowed to ban what can be given to new students? Why are they allowed the power to control literature?

    Not just literature...
    A Mexican restaurant has been banned from handing out free sombreros to students because the publicity stunt was branded ‘racist’ by university officials.
    Pedro’s Tex-Mex Cantina, a Norwich restaurant, gave the hats to University of East Anglia students at a freshers’ fair in the city in a bid to drum up business from the student population.
    But officials at the students’ union, where the fair was held last week, took the sombreros from students and ordered the restaurant to stop giving them out because they thought it was offensive for non-Mexicans to wear them.
    The union said it breached an advertising policy sent to stallholders, which said: ‘Discriminatory or stereotypical language or imagery aimed towards any group or individual based on characteristics will not be permitted as part of our advertising.’
    The policy specifies 15 types of discrimination, some of which include colour, ethnic origin, and nationality.
    The union said the sombreros were seen as racist and a form of ‘cultural appropriation’.
    It's got to be true, it's in the Mail.
  • Options
    Dair said:

    Sean_F said:

    54% for right wing parties is pretty hefty.
    Looks like 37% for economically right parties and 63% for centrist and left parties.
    If you say so
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:


    Absolutely right. Ask the 100s of parents who crowded into that state school tonight, desperate to get their kids into a rigid, disciplined, aspirational environment. You could see it in their eyes. My son lacks a father, my daughter lacks respect, in this school they will be guided and disciplined and, most of all, given a chance.

    It was actually quite moving.

    The school is in the top 1% in the country for science.

    Yet throughout Scandinavia, pupils succeed without this iron discipline, without uniforms or Nuns or any form of coertion.

    The problem is that you, like much of the UK, are an ideologue. You don't think beyond the narrow perspective of right and left, you equate (for some bizarre reason) the iron disciplines of a Roman education as being rightist and automatically believe it is the best.

    Whereas the reality is that it doesn't appear to matter whether the government or the education system is right or left, authoritarian or liberal. What actually matters is the engagement of parents in the education of their children.

    Chinese kids succeed, despite or because of authoritarian education because children are encouraged and/or coerced by their parents to succeed. Danish kids succeed, despite or because of the liberal education because children are encourages and/or coerced by their parents to succeed.

    The system of education does not appear to matter, what matters is the involvement or lack therefore of the parents.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited October 2015
    "The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) is Scotland’s prosecution service. We receive reports about crimes from the police and other reporting agencies and then decide what action to take, including whether to prosecute someone."

    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/about-us/about-us

    "Over 50 specialist reporting agencies, other than the Police, report cases to the Procurator Fiscal each year. The types of offences reported can range from benefit fraud to pollution of drinking water, from illegal dumping of waste to infringement of trading standards"

    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what-we-do/10-about-us/296-specialist-reporting-agencies


    One of those specialist reporting agencies is the Law Society of Scotland so the Guardian report does have internal consistency.

    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/images/Documents/Freedom_of_Information/Foi-Reply-Attachments/Specialist Reporting Agencies - R008646 .pdf

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    The Crown Office is not an investigatory body.

    This claim is bullshit.

    Why do yopu post stuff like this?
    The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) is Scotland’s prosecution service. We receive reports about crimes from the police and other reporting agencies and then decide what action to take, including whether to prosecute someone.
    http://www.crownoffice.gov.uk/about-us/about-us

    Stick to VAT
    The Crown Office is therefore, by your own quote, not an investigatory body.

    There is no way the Crown Office would approach the Law Society to ask for the outcome of an investigation. It relies on reports of recognised bodies which it will then consider for prosecution.

    That;s how the body works. It is a receiving body not an investigatory body. There is no system, and no process by which the Crown Office could know about this case and no way it can "request a report and further information" from the Law Society.

    The story is utter bullshit. FFS, it's in the Guardian. That should be setting off alarm bells without reading the text.
  • Options

    Stephen Kinnock was trying very hard not to say Corbyn's a nitwit.

    I had to laugh at Corbyn saying thank you to an audience member saying he felt sorry for the position he has put Kinnock in.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm feeling 18yrs old again watching QT - arguing about not pushing the button being a possibility...
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    The NY Jets are playing in London.

    They are taking 350 rolls of toilet paper with them.

    Why?

    Because the UK paper is too thin for the big US lard arses.
    I remember growing up in England we had IZAL toilet paper. It was like a combination of greaseproof and tracing paper.

    It was awful.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2015
    JEO said:


    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school.

    Within limits, presumably?

    I dunno if ISIS have a kinda ofsted thing going on, but on your criteria this school would probably come top;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVxZfP1fC_I

  • Options
    Very interesting on QT. If Labour's review commits the party to Trident how can Corbyn continue as the party's leader given he would not be able to abide by the results of a process he initiated.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Stephen Kinnock was trying very hard not to say Corbyn's a nitwit.

    I had to laugh at Corbyn saying thank you to an audience member saying he felt sorry for the position he has put Kinnock in.
    Will we have five years of this? The Labour representative on things like Question Time hinting that their leader holds a ridiculous position?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    She's coming across as rather dim, irrespective of her political persuasion.

    JEO said:

    Charlotte Church claim Corbyn had the biggest mandate of any party leader in British history. I would have thought winning three general elections would be a bigger mandate...

    Church is a key Corbynite demographic. Thick as two short planks.
    Well these days she is off key.
    I always get this nagging worry when seeing someone talking about politics who appears to be quite dim, because quite often they also espouse, directly or otherwise, the idea that everyone would agree with them if they understood things properly - that is, that everyone else is being dim if they disagree, so if I say they are wrong because they are dim, am I doing the same thing?

    I may be overthinking things in fairness- I think I have too much self doubt for political activity, as you either need to be arrogant or confident enough to be near certain you are correct in your beliefs, and for that you need to be someone of rare assurance and ability and fully aware of the worth of your knowledge and sight, or pretty thick and not knowing any better.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    If Ukip really are a right wing party isn't it about time they started proudly selling their right wing economic policies? What happened to selling off the NHS? Come on Nigel!
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    My mother once bought 24 rolls of that back in the 70s, several of us ruined many rolls by getting it *accidently* wet falling into the bog - it failed every feature required of loo paper.
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    The NY Jets are playing in London.

    They are taking 350 rolls of toilet paper with them.

    Why?

    Because the UK paper is too thin for the big US lard arses.
    I remember growing up in England we had IZAL toilet paper. It was like a combination of greaseproof and tracing paper.

    It was awful.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11904376/Oxford-University-Student-Union-bans-free-speech-magazine-because-it-is-offensive.html

    Student journalists at the University of Oxford were dismayed to find out that their magazine - which promotes free speech - was banned from Fresher's Fair because the Student's Union was worried people would find it offensive.

    VERSA news, another student publication at the prestigious university, reported that the magazine, 'No Offence', was banned from being handed out to new students during Fresher's week.
    One expects student unions to be stupid, bigoted, and intolerant, but even allowing for that, there seems to be something wrong with British universities right now.
    How are student unions even allowed to ban what can be given to new students? Why are they allowed the power to control literature?
    Not just literature...
    A Mexican restaurant has been banned from handing out free sombreros to students because the publicity stunt was branded ‘racist’ by university officials.
    Pedro’s Tex-Mex Cantina, a Norwich restaurant, gave the hats to University of East Anglia students at a freshers’ fair in the city in a bid to drum up business from the student population.
    But officials at the students’ union, where the fair was held last week, took the sombreros from students and ordered the restaurant to stop giving them out because they thought it was offensive for non-Mexicans to wear them.
    The union said it breached an advertising policy sent to stallholders, which said: ‘Discriminatory or stereotypical language or imagery aimed towards any group or individual based on characteristics will not be permitted as part of our advertising.’
    The policy specifies 15 types of discrimination, some of which include colour, ethnic origin, and nationality.
    The union said the sombreros were seen as racist and a form of ‘cultural appropriation’.
    It's got to be true, it's in the Mail.

    In the Times as well.

    I'm sure EPG would approve.
  • Options
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school. Children need structure and values, the more so if they are from unstructured and valueless family backgrounds.

    This is why free schools and academies were such a brilliant idea. You free headteachers to make the reforms that both they and parents know work. The left-wing local authorities and unions that allow ideology to triumph over experience are removed from the equation.

    The flaw in your argument is that schools run by left wing local authorities in London are among the best performing in the UK.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278

    Very interesting on QT. If Labour's review commits the party to Trident how can Corbyn continue as the party's leader given he would not be able to abide by the results of a process he initiated.

    Simple, he just would not press the button rendering it effectively redundant anyway
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    The NY Jets are playing in London.

    They are taking 350 rolls of toilet paper with them.

    Why?

    Because the UK paper is too thin for the big US lard arses.
    I remember growing up in England we had IZAL toilet paper. It was like a combination of greaseproof and tracing paper.

    It was awful.
    Sounds like the stuff they used to have in most public toilets - bizarre stuff, entirely unable to do the one job it was supposed to do. I was convinced as a child it was designed to get people not to use such facilities (that it was often found in ones with stainless steel toilets with no seat rims only seemed to back that up).
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    On a more positive and harmonious note, I've just been to see a school in north London, on their open day (I'm checking out secondaries for my older daughter).

    The particular school we visited tonight is a state comp: it used to be terrible, it almost closed down a few years ago, it has majority non-white British intake, lots of kids with special needs, lots of kids entitled to free school meals. A recipe for disaster.

    In the last few years, the new staff have imposed a very strict code of discipline: absolute insistence on uniform, 2 hours homework a night, all the teachers called Sir or Madam. Also, it has gone from being mildly Catholic to fiercely Catholic - prayers every day, nuns in the corridor, 3 hours RE a week, etc etc. There are British flags on the wall in several classrooms, demanding respect for British values.

    It is now a Good school with some Outstanding aspects, sending black, WWC and Muslim kids to Cambridge, UCL, Imperial, etc, last year.

    Something is going RIGHT in some multicultural London schools, yet it is being done by a reversion to quite old-fashioned British schooling.

    Conservatism works.
    This is not a very wide sample
    It's true across schools. The firmer the discipline, the greater the emphasis on character, the deeper the culture of respect, the better the school. Children need structure and values, the more so if they are from unstructured and valueless family backgrounds.

    This is why free schools and academies were such a brilliant idea. You free headteachers to make the reforms that both they and parents know work. The left-wing local authorities and unions that allow ideology to triumph over experience are removed from the equation.

    The flaw in your argument is that schools run by left wing local authorities in London are among the best performing in the UK.

    The best performing schools in London are virtually all academies and free schools outside of local authority control.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting on QT. If Labour's review commits the party to Trident how can Corbyn continue as the party's leader given he would not be able to abide by the results of a process he initiated.

    Simple, he just would not press the button rendering it effectively redundant anyway
    Just not electable - simple
  • Options

    Very interesting on QT. If Labour's review commits the party to Trident how can Corbyn continue as the party's leader given he would not be able to abide by the results of a process he initiated.

    He can spend £100bn on nuclear weapons that are not a nuclear deterrent since there is no deterrence if the button would never be pressed. Totally barmy.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322

    Very interesting on QT. If Labour's review commits the party to Trident how can Corbyn continue as the party's leader given he would not be able to abide by the results of a process he initiated.

    Yes.

    But Corbyn is going to ensure it's decided by a full vote of party members / affiliates / supporters - and that means that Corbyn will win - they will vote to scrap Trident.
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