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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : October 1st 20
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : October 1st 2015
George Street and Harbour (SNP defence) and Midstocket and Rosemount (Con defence) on City of Aberdeen
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 17, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 3, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Result of wards at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
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I posted.
Somewhat to my surprise today several of my OAP friends ...... all retired professional people, some admittedly from public service, but some not ...... told me that having seen Corbyn on the box they thought he was a breath of fresh air, and they liked what he was saying. They weren't people with whom I normally discuss politics, either.
I hadn't expected that from them; personally I'm not sure about Jezza. Yet anyway. Can see him getting me to move to Lab from LD though.
And Rob replied.
Liked what he was saying, as in they would vote for him? Nurse!
To which I would say that one of them probably votes Labour anyway. As I say, I was surprised how positive they all were about him.
@robertshrimsley: This is very good -Corbyn's Nirvana fallacy https://t.co/zuo3ylJp0J
I'm surprised Assad doesn't just piss off to Russia and see what Obama does about the massacre and blood bath that is certain to follow. As so often the West have chosen the wrong side
Assad is a vile and disgusting human being. Anyone defending him likewise.
If Con want to maximise their chances of winning in 2020 then Theresa May looks like by far the best bet - and the safest bet - ie low risk - she is unlikely to lead to any massive swings in voting intention in either direction.
Solid, stable, boring should be enough - plus being a woman can only help.
Social planning has "wicked problems"; the trouble with people like Corbyn is that they seek to cut the Gordian knot by (in the article's example) unilateral nuclear disarmament. It's more complicated than that, but his personal philosophy will never allow him to admit it.
Or, more succinctly, to borrow from a better mind than mine:
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
"Somewhat to my surprise today several of my OAP friends...... "
And as we keep being told they're the ones who vote. Perhaps the Tories on here really are seeing the zeitgeist change. I've been wondering why the plethora of pointless posts begging anyone who'll listen that Corbyn's a dud. Not since the last election have the Tories seemed so paranoid
Having watched him for a week it's obvious he's not another Michael Foot. He was eccentric but appeared feeble and confused. Corbyn seems anything but......avuncular and confident and unlike Cameron-who seems like a cipher-a man with his own ideas
My commiserations.
It is repeating what I have been saying - problems do not have perfect or sometimes any solutions. And you cannot uninvent nuclear weapons. They are cheap they are easy. The nuclear mobilisation race would probably be more dangerous than the nuclear arms race.
Ski-ing ... Spending the Kid's Inheritance.
Jeremy Corbyn has a real problem brewing with those who value professionalism.
I'd thought that left-leaning urban professionals would stay loyal to Labour but I can envisage quite a few of them drifting to abstention or a harmless vote for the Lib Dems.
Even the Tories can do better than that.
You seem to think that the Right are worried about Corbyn. Personally, I'm not. I'm terrified. The thought that there is even a miniscule chance of him being elected gives me the willies, in a way that Brown and Milliband never did. We could recover from those two. I'm not so sure about Corbyn and his motley crew.
Fortunately, I'm confident that Corbyn's hollowness will be easily exposed once the electoral campaign begins in earnest.
Acquiring the necessary materials at the grade needed, the engineering of the actual bomb and then the development of a delivery system is very far from easy. Outside of devices of those five members of the non proliferation treaty, I would suspect the failure rate of a device to successfully hit a target and detonate would be close to 100%.
"Assad is a vile and disgusting human being. Anyone defending him likewise"
I'm not sure. Saddam was as was Gaddafi but but that didn't alter the fact that getting rid of them has proved a disaster for Libya and Iraq.
Assad senior was certainly a monster. I think it's less clear cut with junior. He was faced with an insurrection. Are there many regimes who wouldn't react similarly when their existence is threatened? Not the Israelis for sure who would stop at nothing if their security was under threat
David Cameron In December 2001 was a back bench MP who had been an MP for 5 months.
Michael Howard in November 1999 was a backbench MP having stood down from frontline politics
In September 1997 IDS was Shadow Social Security Secretary, mostly known for being a Maastricht rebel
In June 1993 William Hague was Minister for the Disabled
In November 1986 John Major was a Minister of State at the DHSS
In February 1971 Margaret Thatcher was Education Secretary.
In July 1961 Ted Heath was Lord Privy Seal.
After all the PB Tories are so certain that the Hyslop non story and Thomson poison are going to destroy the SNP. Not to mention that Corbyn is elected now and will destroy the SNP all on his own.
It's not new - it's classic old Lefty. I remain amazed at some people being hookwinked by it or thinking he's some kindly old uncle. Just look at the company he keeps. That says it all.
Scotland is lost to the Union. It's just taking a while to dawn on the folk down south. Scotland needs to be independent for it to develop the normal political spectrum.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQeXLhW8AA1edm.jpg
Will make for interesting reading.
Blonde flamboyant MP for Henley the favourite to be the next Tory leader but never gets, but I'll stop talking about Michael Heseltine
I'm fairly certain between 1983 to 1990 Michael Heseltine was the favourite.
Don't the union have the right not to be forced to publicise a set of views just because some contrarian Brendan O'Neill-type young fogey wants to?
The argument that disarmament would be even more dangerous is certainly not a perfect one but it is valid.
(* presumably, but I've never asked her...)
I'm sure the Union do have the legal right to prevent the distribution of opinions that dissent from their own ultra-left views. But, I doubt if that is desirable or reasonable.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQQoD6zWoAAATz0.jpg
See this from at 4:02 onwards
Lord Lester "We had no idea...."
and the quote he attributes to Roy Jenkins
"We just didn't realise..."
As Enoch said they would say
"Enoch Powell was right, & it will no doubt develop as he says. But its better for us to do nothing now and let it happen, perhaps after our time, than to seize the many poisonous nettles that we would have to seize at this time to avert the outcome"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCgHh29Vhhg
That way you can unlock the functionality you are used to.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3256642/If-safe-place-Tony-Blair-s-astonishing-phonecall-Colonel-Gaddafi-net-closed-Libyan-dictator-revealed.html#ixzz3nLtuaHW9
was 8 points last time
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/corbyn-is-most-unpopular-opposition-leader/
...YouGov/Sun poll: 71% think Labour needs to make major changes before it is fit for government again; http://www.sunnation.co.uk/corbyn-is-most-unpopular-opposition-leader/ …
Under most circumstances, this would be seen as an odd, mildly amusing academic quirk.
It would now seem to be relevant.
Although it will not help his ambition of becoming PM, maybe it ought to.
How are student unions even allowed to ban what can be given to new students? Why are they allowed the power to control literature?
CON: 37% (-2)
LAB: 31% (+1)
UKIP: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(via YouGov / 30 Sep - 01 Oct)
CON 37 (-2)
LAB 31 (=)
LIB 7 (+1)
UKIP 17 (+1)
GRN 2 (-1)
So no Lab bounce during conference week. In the grand scheme of things that not soooo bad
I would like a simple windows laptop with long battery life, light weight, just geared to word processing.
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
If you are moving from windows 8, you will breath a sigh of relief and go 'thank f***, that was awful, who thought windows 8 was good?'.
From windows 7, it is a bit trickier. The start menu is not as useful or customisable and windows 7, though the machine is much quicker.
Is it desirable for a student union to organise and finance publicity for jokes or levity about "racism, sexual violence, and homophobia"?