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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has said that he won’t serve a third term
Last night we saw the release of the monthly ComRes phone poll for the Daily Mail showing the CON lead down 5 to 9%. There was much focus on best PM figures showing Cameron 24% ahead of the new LAB leader.
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Whcameron does not seem to be suffering any lame duck effect. When Blair made much the same announcement it was described as a huge blunder. That does not seem to have happened.
People have either forgotten about Cameron'ss departure or maybe yhey do not believe it.
Conservative conference next week?
I think Cameron is a remarkable and exceptionally able politician. The fact that he, against pretty crap opposition, got his party a majority of 12 suggests to me that there is absolutely no room for Tory complacency, despite Labour's best efforts to stimulate it.
It deserved an award.
There is no damage to Nicola.
https://twitter.com/scotsw12/status/648959988103258112
(drag to 6 mins 45 secs)
http://tinyurl.com/NPconference
However, all polling on Jeremy Corbyn for now is of limited value. He's got off to a shaky start but the public probably haven't finally settled their view of him in the same way that they have of longer established politicians.
"Did anyone just see Eamonn intv Jezza? It was hilarious. Eamonn's face was a mix of incredulity, boredom and laughing to himself.
It deserved an award."
Have you ever thought about writing something interesting? Surely you can post something that isn't drivel and gossip
You are morphing into tim in terms of personal abuse.
Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.
I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.
Are any bookies offering odds that the Conservatives decide to start each day of their conference with everyone standing for the National Anthem..?
Scots, Welsh polling and a couple of tasty byelections in Scotland could be interesting though
"Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."
And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 53 secs54 seconds ago
I'm delighted to say some Tory voters helped me in my leadership campaign - @jeremycorbyn @BBCr4today
So the next PM is really an unknown against an unknown. Perhaps the pollsters shouldn't bother.
The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
He was CCHQ's first choice until Corbyn got involved.
The Tories have and would wrapped Stafford round his neck. It would have been utterly brutal.
Andy Burnham the Westminster village idiot.
As an aside the Lib Dems are utterly toxic.
Every Lib Dem who served in cabinet in the last parliament apart from Clegg either lost their seat or ended up in court.
And yet some respite from the never-ending bleating would be very welcome.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, they're trying to improve the aerodynamic situation by having wider front wings and smaller rear wings which should make it easier to follow a car through the corners.
How can F1 attract more chassis / engine manufacturers in if they get treated as Red Bull have treated Renault?
I was tempted to go to Labour's, but then I decided that the torture wouldn't be worth the amusement value. Tory one is too far for me - have fun
http://youtu.be/pSWN6Qj98Iw
How bad must the losers' brands be?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014
They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.
(In my usual style, it was a purely accidental meeting and I did not realise who he was for a few minutes).
I must admit that I have a lot of time for Bernie. He made F1 into the worldwide success it has become, and has been involved on-and-off from the very first championship race in 1950. Having said that, it's becoming clear that the F1 he created of backroom deals and handshake agreements is not particularly fit for the modern world.
And he's not the man to change that.
Good day to all.
Still, I look forward to our reparations from the Germans, Scandinavians, Normans, Romans, Irish (Scots invading the Picts) and the Spanish [for the Armada].
On a more serious note, in early America it's my understanding that Irish and Chinese immigrants had terrible conditions. But that rarely gets mentioned.
And what about the steps which Britain took to stop the slave trade? Do we get credit for that?
The past has happened. Those who suffered cannot be apologised to because they are dead and those living now are not responsible for what their ancestors did. The sins of the father are not borne by the sons etc.
The best we can do is to stop it happening again and deal with its modern day equivalent. May deserves some credit for what she is trying to do in this area. More power to her elbow, frankly.
@politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast
What odds/size?
"Almost £6bn of the UK’s foreign aid budget will be spent on tackling climate change in poor countries over the next five years, David Cameron has said, as Britain steps up its contributions by 50 per cent to help meet international targets."
I also query the value, other than as gossip fodder here of a hypothetical match up between Sajid Javid, say, an Jeremy Corbyn. Nobody knows who the hell the former is, let alone how he'd perform leading his party. It all just seems ludicrously early... I appreciate DC won't be the candidate, but the voting public know so little about who may be and what their pitch would be that the exercise seems worthless other than as a way for experienced gamblers to steal a few quid off those who overreact.
It's also much more honest about it than football.
Three Libyan soldiers jailed for raping women in Cambridge have applied for Asylum.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-34392667
Can we as a country apply for asylum from them?
The positioning and stall which Osborne, Boris, Javid etc would make their play on would by its very nature effect how the public see them.
As for Corbyn, the day after and his speech is even worse than it was yesterday. As he sees it, the UK is divided into the Tories and the desperately poor who are being shafted by them. What he genuinely does not seem to understand is that most people do not live in poverty and that the only way to do anything about the ones who do is to form a prospectus that has some relevance to the majority.
Note that 'before', or am I missing something? Interesting implications if so, especially as we all know when the next election is (or it will be even sooner), so it would be hard to deny prior knowledge.
The BBC is planning an X Factor-style UK national final for the 2016 Eurovision entries
http://bit.ly/1JBR2vK