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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has

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    Mr. Notme, technically XNTP :p

    I like the Myers-Briggs approach, but no such personality test is flawless. I believe there's a question about preferring a book or a party [I'd say 'book', but if it were Courage, by Gordon Brown, or a party involving me, Jennifer Morrison, Olivia Wilde and a jacuzzi, I'd say 'party'].
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    glw said:

    A new generation of Trident swould presumably have less of a radar profile but its sheer size and small number place all our nuclear options in 3 to 4 places. Is a solution devised in the early 1960s really best for the 2040s? I doubt it.

    Do you think a silo on land or aircraft will be harder to detect than a submarine?

    FWIW I would favour two or more subs at sea at all times.
    I would not pretend to be an expert but circa 2020s multiple drones with nukes could swarm in on targets. It is afterall a weapon of retaliation.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
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    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488

    S Rentool No need for the Chinese involvement.. we make terrific submarines without their help.. right here in Barrow in Furness..

    I hope they don't need to use any steel to build them with though.
    Plenty of cheap Chinese stuff going , need lots of wadding to stuff the leaks after a few months in water mind you.
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    My last comment on this subject. I studies just war theory last year. (PPE wonk that I am) My conclusion is that the notion of just war is bogus, and that the only two coherent positions to take are pacifism and support for total war. I have not yet figured out which of those two positions I take, however.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488
    Charles said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    String out negotiations until the destroyers, sub-hunting planes and special forces get there.
    Using Denzel Washington no doubt.
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    S Rentool No need for the Chinese involvement.. we make terrific submarines without their help.. right here in Barrow in Furness..

    I hope they don't need to use any steel to build them with though.
    Show me where you lefty industry lovers complained when steel companies shut down during the New Labour years? Where were the marches against the government, the complaints that the government were EVIL?

    And then do the same for the coal mines.

    Labour types are only interested in industry when the Conservatives are closing it down. When Labour are in power, anything can be closed with barely a squeak of complaint.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stvharry: Corbyn has just pulled out of an interview I was about to do for STV.His staff say he's lost his voice. He'll have to mime the Red Flag then
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited September 2015
    Bless. When asked by PA if he'd gone too Left to win...
    Thirty-six percent of the electorate didn’t vote in the last election, 53% of young people didn’t vote in the last election. Some people were tempted away from us because we were not clear enough on an economic strategy that opposed austerity.
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    Mr. Rentool, that's a bit black and white. I agree Aquinas' conditions [covered in Religious Studies] are rarely met (WWII had most of them), but I don't think only pacifism and total war are the only options.
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    I would not want to get into a game of bluff with someone like Putin if he possessed nuclear weapons and we did not. He gives every impression of being willing to use them. So, what do you do if you do not have any and he starts threatening attacks if he does not get his way over something or other? That's the scenario their possession prevents. And it seems like a very possible one from where I am sitting.
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    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.

    This is true, although leaving aside political benefits I hope he has a long and enjoyable life to spend with his grandchildren.
    However I for one think that at his age and with his age long prejudices (and lack of well, intellect) then he is ripe for manipulation. Isn't McDonnell 65? Nothing wrong with being 65, but I would have liked my older politicians to have accumulated wisdom rather than ignorance and have earned their place to be still in the front line (on the front bench) by their own sagacity not the ineptness of others.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    My last comment on this subject. I studies just war theory last year. (PPE wonk that I am) My conclusion is that the notion of just war is bogus, and that the only two coherent positions to take are pacifism and support for total war. I have not yet figured out which of those two positions I take, however.

    I think this is a classic case of basing things in abstract principles rather than practical reality. It is very clear that the way the Second World War was waged on the Western Front, where just war principles were more maintained, relative to the Eastern Front shows that just war can really reduce human suffering. Still horrific, but nowhere near as bad as the East.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    INTJ
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited September 2015

    In other news:

    Three Libyan soldiers jailed for raping women in Cambridge have applied for Asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-34392667

    Can we as a country apply for asylum from them?

    This more than anything is the type of story that riles people against immigration and asylum.
    Joe Public doesn't understand how an asylum claim from a convicted rapist should not be simply dismissed out of hand, him being taken from prison to a waiting plane the day he finishes his sentence.
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    As an aside on steel production, perhaps one of the multitudinous PB experts can answer me this:

    Nowadays steel is rarely 'just' steel. Many speciality steels are required in massive amounts: vanadium, chromium, manganese, nickel and other elements are added to create alloys for specific purposes.

    How adaptive are plants like the Teeside one? Do they have to make only one alloy for long periods before swapping, or do they have different subplants for different steels? Or am I utterly and embarrassingly misunderstanding the process?
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    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Here is something to get the swivel-eyed in our midst foaming at the mouth:

    "Almost £6bn of the UK’s foreign aid budget will be spent on tackling climate change in poor countries over the next five years, David Cameron has said, as Britain steps up its contributions by 50 per cent to help meet international targets."

    Its certainly got me foaming at the mouth.
    So you don't want to invest in flood defences in Bangladesh?
    Or help them build less polluting factories?
    Well said.
    I do think we should be somewhat self serving in out aid, providing it fulfills the generally expected purpose of aid. We should take advantage of aid to become bigger trading partners of its recipients, as well as hoping the rise out of poverty and disaster will increase growth in the poorer economies of the world.
    Personally I think if we could not properly spend the budget in any one year we should keep the balance in some sort of ... umm ... escrow(?) and give ourselves even more financial clout in the world.
    Self-serving is fine, but it shouldn't just be trade: there is also a role for trying to reduce future threats. For instance, women's education programmes in Ethiopia have been helpful in reducing radicalism...thereby reducing the risk of it becoming a failed state with the impact in terms of security risk and immigration.

    To the extent that we can build these countries into desirable places to live, we benefit in many ways. Flood defences in Bangladesh would be part of that - and provided we get good value for money I have no problem working with British firms to implement policy.
    Whatever is being done in Ethiopia, it seems to be working:

    http://tinyurl.com/pjkbcwz

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    How many interviews has Corbyn run away from since he became leader?

    Must be a record.

    So authentic. So real.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well quite. I find the argument that they're pointless as we haven't had a Cold War in ages baffling.

    We haven't had a war because they are a deterrent. I wouldn't trust Putin either, but it's various hotheads in Sandpitland that worry me more if they got their hands on them.

    The horror of what happened in Japan was IMO a necessary evil - it stopped the war dead in its tracks - and we've not experienced anything like it since.

    I would not want to get into a game of bluff with someone like Putin if he possessed nuclear weapons and we did not. He gives every impression of being willing to use them. So, what do you do if you do not have any and he starts threatening attacks if he does not get his way over something or other? That's the scenario their possession prevents. And it seems like a very possible one from where I am sitting.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Bless. When asked by PA if he'd gone too Left to win...

    Thirty-six percent of the electorate didn’t vote in the last election, 53% of young people didn’t vote in the last election. Some people were tempted away from us because we were not clear enough on an economic strategy that opposed austerity.
    So Ed's problem was that he wasn't left wing enough. As Neil Kinnock might once have said - alrriiigggghhhttttttt!!!!
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    I would not want to get into a game of bluff with someone like Putin if he possessed nuclear weapons and we did not. He gives every impression of being willing to use them. So, what do you do if you do not have any and he starts threatening attacks if he does not get his way over something or other? That's the scenario their possession prevents. And it seems like a very possible one from where I am sitting.

    Not just Putin. Saddam undoubtedly had chemical weapons in 1991. He might have secretly destroyed them later but there's no question about their existence at the time of the earlier Gulf War. He showed his willingness to use them both against Iran and against his own people. Bush, Major and Mitterrand told him in no uncertain terms what would happen if he used them against their troops: I think the phrase in Major's autobiography is something like "immediate and catastrophic response". Saddam kept the warheads at home.
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    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    Did we ever have nuclear torpedoes? I know the US and USSR fielded them.
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    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    ENTP here. As are a good proportion of pb's regulars, judging by:

    ENTPs tend to have a perverse sense of humor as well, and enjoy playing devil's advocate. This sometimes confuses, even angers, those who don't understand or accept the concept of argument as a sport.

    http://www.humanmetrics.com/personality/entp
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    “Immigration is causing low wages and poverty for British workers, Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham will warn. He will say Labour must ‘face up’ to the fact that immigration has made the UK a more unequal society, in a blunt message to Labour’s annual conference… ‘It has made life harder for people in our poorest communities, where wages have been undercut and job security lost’” – Birmingham Mail

    and then there are the views of his Leader Corbyn on R4 Today.....

    The Labour party are becoming a political version of the USA series Soap. (For the over 50s).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soap_(TV_series)

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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited September 2015
    chestnut said:

    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_September-2015_Tables1.pdf

    A quick meander:

    1) Corbyn does best with under 35's - same losing demographic as Miliband;
    2) The only non Con/Lab voters who prefer Corbyn are SNP;
    3) A third of Labour voters do not affirm Corbyn as a better leader than Cameron;

    I think tactical voting, even in FPTP, is of ever growing significance particularly in marginal seats and "marginal" is now embracing larger majorities The SNP + Labour scare worked very well for the Tories in GE2015, and you can see why it did. That makes no.2 particularly significant although none look good for Labour. The extent of the delusion amongst Corbynistas is staggering. It seems that lefties are always delusional but I still think, what if ....
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    Sandpit said:

    In other news:

    Three Libyan soldiers jailed for raping women in Cambridge have applied for Asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-34392667

    Can we as a country apply for asylum from them?

    This more than anything is the type of story that riles people against immigration and asylum.
    Joe Public doesn't understand how an asylum claim from a convicted rapist should not be simply dismissed out of hand, him being taken from prison to a waiting plane the day he finishes his sentence.
    It's absurd. The point of the asylum process is to keep people safe from violence. By having them in this country, we are failing to protect British citizens from violence.

    Send them back.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    String out negotiations until the destroyers, sub-hunting planes and special forces get there.
    Using Denzel Washington no doubt.
    Why not. I've always liked his work ;)
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    Scott_P said:

    @stvharry: Corbyn has just pulled out of an interview I was about to do for STV.His staff say he's lost his voice. He'll have to mime the Red Flag then

    Now they are taking the p out of him.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    chestnut said:

    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_September-2015_Tables1.pdf

    A quick meander:

    1) Corbyn does best with under 35's - same losing demographic as Miliband;
    2) The only non Con/Lab voters who prefer Corbyn are SNP;
    3) A third of Labour voters do not affirm Corbyn as a better leader than Cameron;

    I think tactical voting, even in FPTP, is of ever growing significance particularly in marginal seats and "marginal" is now embracing larger majorities The SNP + Labour scare worked very well for the Tories in GE2015, and you can see why it did. That makes no.2 particularly significant although none look good for Labour. The extent of the delusion amongst Corbynistas is staggering. It seems that lefties are always delusional but I still think, what if ....
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    How many interviews has Corbyn run away from since he became leader?
    Must be a record.

    So authentic. So real.

    So f**ked
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I saw a tweet from a journo earlier saying Jezza has pulled out of his intv as he wanted to go back to the hall so attendees could hear from him.

    Nothing about a lost voice. It sounds like he's had enough of media time and going back to his comfort zone. There was nothing wrong with his voice on Sky or Today.

    Scott_P said:

    @stvharry: Corbyn has just pulled out of an interview I was about to do for STV.His staff say he's lost his voice. He'll have to mime the Red Flag then

    Now they are taking the p out of him.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488

    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
    More like delusions of grandeur
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    An interesting analysis of what is driving the support for Jeremy Corbyn and its/his (they are not the same it would seem) potential.

    Declaration of interest; he is a friend of mine.

    His knowledge of the use of research in campaigning is legendary amongst those in the NGO/pressure group world.

    Jeremy Corbyn: What The Media and Political Classes Don’t Get. It’s campaigning not politics as you know it.

    http://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/?p=800

    The job of Leader of the Opposition is to be ready to take over as PM. It's not a campaigning role; it's a (potential) governing one. That's what the political class and the media do get and Corbyn's supporters don't.
    I think a large part of the electorate gets it too
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.


    Week 3 and he's already knackered out? Corbyn won't make it to 2020.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    String out negotiations until the destroyers, sub-hunting planes and special forces get there.
    Using Denzel Washington no doubt.
    Why not. I've always liked his work ;)
    LOL
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    ENTP here. As are a good proportion of pb's regulars, judging by:

    ENTPs tend to have a perverse sense of humor as well, and enjoy playing devil's advocate. This sometimes confuses, even angers, those who don't understand or accept the concept of argument as a sport.

    http://www.humanmetrics.com/personality/entp
    Anyone considered to be "slacking," including superiors, will lose their respect -- and will generally be made aware of this; INTJs have also been known to take it upon themselves to implement critical decisions without consulting their supervisors or co-workers

    This sums me up to a T...

    Guess it's why I play in my own niche ;)
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    S Rentool No need for the Chinese involvement.. we make terrific submarines without their help.. right here in Barrow in Furness..

    I hope they don't need to use any steel to build them with though.
    Show me where you lefty industry lovers complained when steel companies shut down during the New Labour years? Where were the marches against the government, the complaints that the government were EVIL?

    And then do the same for the coal mines.

    Labour types are only interested in industry when the Conservatives are closing it down. When Labour are in power, anything can be closed with barely a squeak of complaint.
    That's because Labour are nice. They do things like...fail to build social housing...but with a heavy heart and a tear in their eye. Can't you see the difference?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    Did we ever have nuclear torpedoes? I know the US and USSR fielded them.
    We had Vince Cable
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
    Indeed, not only is fighting in a higher weight category a sure fire path to defeat but also to serious injury and at best a dockside hooker style pummelling.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2015

    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    ENTP here. As are a good proportion of pb's regulars, judging by:

    ENTPs tend to have a perverse sense of humor as well, and enjoy playing devil's advocate. This sometimes confuses, even angers, those who don't understand or accept the concept of argument as a sport.

    http://www.humanmetrics.com/personality/entp
    Confession time. I had MBTI assessed 3 times over about 5 years, by professional outfits as part of assessments on existing management. 2 assessed as ENTJ and one ENTP. I guess it depended on what I felt on the day, whether I wanted to invade Russia or just perceived their pain?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Day 18 - he's had quite a rollercoaster. I'd be tired too, but then again - I didn't apply for the job.

    Still it's the last day of conference for him and then it's the Tories!
    watford30 said:

    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.


    Week 3 and he's already knackered out? Corbyn won't make it to 2020.
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    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.

    It has been raised on pb before. We are in a phony war. Corbyn will probably retire before 2020, and as OGH's OP notes, David Cameron has announced he will do so.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've done loads of these and marked them. I started off in my 20s as a high ENTP, then in my 30s went INTP, and now am INTJ.

    I prefer Saville and Holdsworth OPQ for workplace assessments myself.

    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    ENTP here. As are a good proportion of pb's regulars, judging by:

    ENTPs tend to have a perverse sense of humor as well, and enjoy playing devil's advocate. This sometimes confuses, even angers, those who don't understand or accept the concept of argument as a sport.

    http://www.humanmetrics.com/personality/entp
    Confession time. I had MBTI assessed 3 times over about 5 years, by professional outfits as part of assessments on existing management. 2 assessed as ENTJ and one ENTP. I guess it depended on what I felt on the day, whether I wanted to invade Russia or just perceived their pain?
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    I have to say that this morning's pb thriller plot needs more work.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning all.
    Israel News Flash ‏@ILNewsFlash 2h2 hours ago
    BREAKING : The Federation Council has voted unanimously to approve the Russian air force's use of force in #Syria.

    So all nice and legal then. He, he! ;)
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
    More like delusions of grandeur
    Are you posting about Salmond or Sturgeon? That 'Arc of Prosperity' - how we laughed.
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    malcolmg said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    Did we ever have nuclear torpedoes? I know the US and USSR fielded them.
    We had Vince Cable
    :)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ouch http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11900788/labour-conference-day-four-live.html
    Kevan Jones, Labour's shadow defence minister, told our senior political correspondent Kate McCann that the Labour leader is "picking and choosing what he supports".

    He added: "Labour party policy on Trident, endorsed by conference, is clear. It would appear that as leader he is acting in the same way he was when he was on the back benches - picking and choosing what he supports".
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    Stunned to find something I agree with Wolf on.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/509c8f5a-65c3-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3nAAVdCs5

    "The benefits of migration are questionable"
    Martin Wolf
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.

    It has been raised on pb before. We are in a phony war. Corbyn will probably retire before 2020, and as OGH's OP notes, David Cameron has announced he will do so.
    Corbyn goes for health reasons, and Tom Watson steps up to the plate...
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    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
    Indeed, not only is fighting in a higher weight category a sure fire path to defeat but also to serious injury and at best a dockside hooker style pummelling.
    Like Sugar Ray Leonard who won titles at 5 weight divisions you mean ? :-)
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    No, sociopaths make up the majority of prisoners, psychopaths appear in leadership roles

    Mr. Barnesian, psychopaths tend to do quite well in leadership roles.

    Isn't it socio-paths that do well in leadership roles?
    Asking our wider well informed PB range of experts, under the Myers Briggs definitions, are psychopaths usually ENTP or ENTJ?
    Innocent face.
    I am both ENTP and INTP, having got 50/50 on the first one..
    ENTP here. As are a good proportion of pb's regulars, judging by:

    ENTPs tend to have a perverse sense of humor as well, and enjoy playing devil's advocate. This sometimes confuses, even angers, those who don't understand or accept the concept of argument as a sport.

    http://www.humanmetrics.com/personality/entp
    Confession time. I had MBTI assessed 3 times over about 5 years, by professional outfits as part of assessments on existing management. 2 assessed as ENTJ and one ENTP. I guess it depended on what I felt on the day, whether I wanted to invade Russia or just perceived their pain?
    The more important question, is not about whether psychopaths or sociopaths are ENTP, but based on the above, but are all trolls ENTP?

    Maybe we need some kind of Minority Report pre crime assessment, and all ENTP's have their twitter accounts disabled.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    We would not retaliate by killing millions of North Korean civilians. We can pretend that we would, in order to deter the bombing of London, but I maintain that no British PM would follow through with the threat to retaliate. Of course, we all hope that the theory does not have to be tested. Schrodinger's bomb, if you will.

    You seem certain about an issue involving a weapon which survives in large part because of the uncertainties associated with it. If you are right then why the hell does anyone have or want nuclear weapons? Or do you believe that, as a nation, we are psychologically different to every other nuclear power and individually psychologically identical (in terms of attitude to nuclear retaliation)? On the latter point I can tell you I would push the button without hesitation in retaliation. I shudder to think what that makes me in your eyes.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488

    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:


    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Basing a defence/nuclear strategy on what sounds like a particularly shite Steven Seagal movie? Well, it's a thought I suppose..
    TUD, do you think it is based on anything real , thought not. It is an expensive willy waving project and nothing else, US needed if you want any action from Willy as well makes it even more useless.
    I've never really got the 'punching above our weight' thing. I'd always assumed any smart & successful fighter punches at exactly his weight as much as possible.
    Indeed, not only is fighting in a higher weight category a sure fire path to defeat but also to serious injury and at best a dockside hooker style pummelling.
    Like Sugar Ray Leonard who won titles at 5 weight divisions you mean ? :-)
    Think you might find his weight increased as he matured thus meaning he had to go up the divisions. For sure he did not fight 5 divisions above his weight.
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    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    Did we ever have nuclear torpedoes? I know the US and USSR fielded them.
    come now, one nucealr deterrant system at a time, if you don't mind :)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I saw a tweet from a journo earlier saying Jezza has pulled out of his intv as he wanted to go back to the hall so attendees could hear from him.

    Nothing about a lost voice. It sounds like he's had enough of media time and going back to his comfort zone. There was nothing wrong with his voice on Sky or Today.

    Scott_P said:

    @stvharry: Corbyn has just pulled out of an interview I was about to do for STV.His staff say he's lost his voice. He'll have to mime the Red Flag then

    Now they are taking the p out of him.
    There must be something about the sound of silence being golden with dud political leaders.

    We had the quiet man IDS and now the mute Jezza.

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    sorry meant to spell that nucular
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    Did we ever have nuclear torpedoes? I know the US and USSR fielded them.
    come now, one nucealr deterrant system at a time, if you don't mind :)
    A torpedo falls into the Offensive category.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Stunned to find something I agree with Wolf on.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/509c8f5a-65c3-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3nAAVdCs5

    "The benefits of migration are questionable"
    Martin Wolf

    Well, well, well. I wonder why Wolf thinks that. LOL
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    I saw a tweet from a journo earlier saying Jezza has pulled out of his intv as he wanted to go back to the hall so attendees could hear from him.

    Nothing about a lost voice. It sounds like he's had enough of media time and going back to his comfort zone. There was nothing wrong with his voice on Sky or Today.

    Scott_P said:

    @stvharry: Corbyn has just pulled out of an interview I was about to do for STV.His staff say he's lost his voice. He'll have to mime the Red Flag then

    Now they are taking the p out of him.
    Surely he's surprised that the media even want to talk to him, given that yesterday he said how much he hated them all - and they replied with the expected front pages this morning!

    The Eamonn Holmes interview was a proper car crash from both interviewer and interviewee.
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    Lots of Rationals on here (there are four major groups, the Rational and Idealists [few in number, only 1% are INTJ, for example], and larger Guardians and Artisans).

    Mr. Jessop, old Damascus steel was 'contaminated' with vanadium impurities which made it stronger than other steel. Can't comment on stuff in the modern age, though.

    Mr. Charles, INTJ is also the group to which Spock belongs.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Gatestone Institute ‏@GatestoneInst Sep 28
    #Germany seizing property, evicting citizens to make room for migrants @SoerenKern http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6583/germany-migrants-housing

    I always said that Merkel was a Mover and Shaker. :)
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    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Breitbart London ‏@BreitbartLondon 38m38 minutes ago
    Farage in Brussels: 'I Feel That Christians Are Being Ignored' http://bit.ly/1YOaX6a
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
    I cant see circumstances in which they would take part in a first strike, but most certainly in a retaliatory strike.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    On topic. I think the polls should do as OGH suggests, but also continue to poll Cameron as there has to be a reasonable chance that he will change his mind. After all, his original comment that he would not continue came out as rather a spur-of-the-moment, throw-away comment, rather than a carefully planned and timed political announcement.
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    Ipsos-MORI's monthly issues index is out:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3628/EconomistIpsos-MORI-September-2015-Issues-Index

    Immigration has hit a new record of 56%, with 40% naming it as the single most important issue facing Britain. Concern about the economy is now down to 25%.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Rentool, might well be the case.

    The world's financial capital obliterated. Perhaps 10 million people dead (depending on the size and location of the strike). Swathes of southern England dangerously irradiated.

    Back to psychopaths: there's an interesting line of thought that far from being a problem, the condition arose on an evolutionary basis. If your tribe of cavemen is led by a psychopath and the enemy by an incredibly nice chap, the odds are you'll win. Psychopaths are charming, intelligent, and decisive. They're also overwhelmingly male (although not 100%, so you do occasionally meet a lady psychopath).

    I think that's right. In game theory, the psychopath usually wins by threatening convincingly to bring down the whole house on both parties.. That's the mistake the Greeks made. Schäuble was willing to risk the whole EU project to teach the Greeks a lesson.

    In nuclear deterence, it would be more effective to have a computer in charge (rather than a psychopath) that was programmed to automatically retaliate a la Dr Strangelove. No bluffing there.
    I think the Cuban missile crisis is interesting in this context. There is a line of thought which has Kennedy as a poker player and Khrushchev as a chess player, and that Kennedy prevailed because Khrushchev couldn't read him and the game became one of poker rather than chess. Dr Strangelove is a great film.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    notme said:

    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
    I cant see circumstances in which they would take part in a first strike, but most certainly in a retaliatory strike.
    Cameron yes, Corbyn no. The latter would enter into a dialogue with his 'friends' rather than irradiate them.
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    notme said:

    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
    I cant see circumstances in which they would take part in a first strike, but most certainly in a retaliatory strike.
    Who would deliberately strike first?
    It would have to be a state, the terrorist attack mentioned so far would be better handled by conventional forces.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Agence France-Presse ‏@AFP 4m4 minutes ago
    Australian sheep breaks world record with mammoth fleece http://u.afp.com/ZcvC

    Poor animal. That sheep must must be hoping to lead a dogs life soon.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm really torn on this issue - I think he's an excellent PM - I don't agree with some of what he says, but he says it very well.

    I don't want him to stand down. However, I'd rather he went out on a high than go mad/bad like other long standing PMs. Ho hum.

    Not keen on Ozzie. I think he's a good CoE, but not PM material.
    MTimT said:

    On topic. I think the polls should do as OGH suggests, but also continue to poll Cameron as there has to be a reasonable chance that he will change his mind. After all, his original comment that he would not continue came out as rather a spur-of-the-moment, throw-away comment, rather than a carefully planned and timed political announcement.

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    S Rentool.. I believe the steel may come from Workington.. just a few miles down the coast..
    MG Deep water Submarines do not leak..
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeK said:

    Gatestone Institute ‏@GatestoneInst Sep 28
    #Germany seizing property, evicting citizens to make room for migrants @SoerenKern http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6583/germany-migrants-housing

    I always said that Merkel was a Mover and Shaker. :)

    This is just the lunatic ravings of right-wing neocons and fascists. Everyone knows that immigration brings unparalleled benefits to the community - both in terms of cultural enhancement and economic prosperity.
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    watford30 said:

    aul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 57 mins57 minutes ago

    Corbyn has pulled out of interviews with ITV regions. Too tired and losing voice. Yesterday he said we must hold politicians to account.

    Has anyone actually asked if he's got the energy for the next 5 years, let alone be PM?

    He's 66, he'll be nearly dead or maybe actually dead if it's too much for him.

    It has been raised on pb before. We are in a phony war. Corbyn will probably retire before 2020, and as OGH's OP notes, David Cameron has announced he will do so.
    Corbyn goes for health reasons, and Tom Watson steps up to the plate...
    Watson's a walking stroke/heart attack.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34399503

    "Volkswagen has announced that nearly 1.2 million of its vehicles sold in the UK are fitted with the software behind the emissions scandal.
    It includes diesel-powered cars with the VW brand, Audi, Seat and Skoda as well as VW commercial vehicles."
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    antifrank said:

    Ipsos-MORI's monthly issues index is out:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3628/EconomistIpsos-MORI-September-2015-Issues-Index

    Immigration has hit a new record of 56%, with 40% naming it as the single most important issue facing Britain. Concern about the economy is now down to 25%.

    No mention of Re-nationalisation, the Human Rights Act, Climate Change, prisoners in Saudi Arabian jails or internet misogyny, while housing is only an issue to one in seven.

    Corbyn's mass debates seem to ignore the concerns of the masses.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited September 2015
    notme said:

    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
    I cant see circumstances in which they would take part in a first strike, but most certainly in a retaliatory strike.
    If Russia nuked Kiev, or NK lobbed something dirty at Seoul, we would retaliate and it would kick off big time. The reason that doesn't happen is that Putin and Kim KNOW what the response would look like, the fact that we have the deterrent is itself preventing the nuclear war.
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    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Rentool, might well be the case.

    The world's financial capital obliterated. Perhaps 10 million people dead (depending on the size and location of the strike). Swathes of southern England dangerously irradiated.

    Back to psychopaths: there's an interesting line of thought that far from being a problem, the condition arose on an evolutionary basis. If your tribe of cavemen is led by a psychopath and the enemy by an incredibly nice chap, the odds are you'll win. Psychopaths are charming, intelligent, and decisive. They're also overwhelmingly male (although not 100%, so you do occasionally meet a lady psychopath).

    I think that's right. In game theory, the psychopath usually wins by threatening convincingly to bring down the whole house on both parties.. That's the mistake the Greeks made. Schäuble was willing to risk the whole EU project to teach the Greeks a lesson.

    In nuclear deterence, it would be more effective to have a computer in charge (rather than a psychopath) that was programmed to automatically retaliate a la Dr Strangelove. No bluffing there.
    Anyone else remembering the hit 80s film Wargames?
    Absolutely!
    Perhaps (well no perhaps) 'the' best film on the subject was indeed 'Dr Strangelove'.
    I must confess my ignorance at having never seen Dr Strangelove (shock, horror, gasp).

    Wargames was a great 80s movie though.
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    Watson would waddle up to the plate..
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Lots of Rationals on here (there are four major groups, the Rational and Idealists [few in number, only 1% are INTJ, for example], and larger Guardians and Artisans).

    ...

    Mr. Charles, INTJ is also the group to which Spock belongs.

    Is that a good thing?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I can't stand Dr Strangelove.

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Rentool, might well be the case.

    The world's financial capital obliterated. Perhaps 10 million people dead (depending on the size and location of the strike). Swathes of southern England dangerously irradiated.

    Back to psychopaths: there's an interesting line of thought that far from being a problem, the condition arose on an evolutionary basis. If your tribe of cavemen is led by a psychopath and the enemy by an incredibly nice chap, the odds are you'll win. Psychopaths are charming, intelligent, and decisive. They're also overwhelmingly male (although not 100%, so you do occasionally meet a lady psychopath).

    I think that's right. In game theory, the psychopath usually wins by threatening convincingly to bring down the whole house on both parties.. That's the mistake the Greeks made. Schäuble was willing to risk the whole EU project to teach the Greeks a lesson.

    In nuclear deterence, it would be more effective to have a computer in charge (rather than a psychopath) that was programmed to automatically retaliate a la Dr Strangelove. No bluffing there.
    Anyone else remembering the hit 80s film Wargames?
    Absolutely!
    Perhaps (well no perhaps) 'the' best film on the subject was indeed 'Dr Strangelove'.
    I must confess my ignorance at having never seen Dr Strangelove (shock, horror, gasp).

    Wargames was a great 80s movie though.
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    chestnut said:

    antifrank said:

    Ipsos-MORI's monthly issues index is out:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3628/EconomistIpsos-MORI-September-2015-Issues-Index

    Immigration has hit a new record of 56%, with 40% naming it as the single most important issue facing Britain. Concern about the economy is now down to 25%.

    No mention of Re-nationalisation, the Human Rights Act, Climate Change, prisoners in Saudi Arabian jails or internet misogyny, while housing is only an issue to one in seven.

    Corbyn's mass debates seem to ignore the concerns of the masses.
    Concern about immigration seems to be strongest in the north of England, with fully 64% of respondents naming it. The new Labour leader's line on immigration seems adventurous, to say the least.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MTimT said:

    On topic. I think the polls should do as OGH suggests, but also continue to poll Cameron as there has to be a reasonable chance that he will change his mind. After all, his original comment that he would not continue came out as rather a spur-of-the-moment, throw-away comment, rather than a carefully planned and timed political announcement.

    You can't mean..... you don't mean... that Cammo would pull a belated Farage on us? ;)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,488

    S Rentool.. I believe the steel may come from Workington.. just a few miles down the coast..
    MG Deep water Submarines do not leak..

    You missed the joke I take it , "Chinese steel"
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    MG.. Rentool never jokes..
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    Mr. Charles, yes.

    All the coolest kids are INTJ.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    MikeK said:

    Gatestone Institute ‏@GatestoneInst Sep 28
    #Germany seizing property, evicting citizens to make room for migrants @SoerenKern http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6583/germany-migrants-housing

    I always said that Merkel was a Mover and Shaker. :)

    I cant see how this isnt going to get very ugly. Usually a culture of entitlement takes a generation or two:
    "Meanwhile, politicians are demanding that German citizens do more to ensure that the migrants feel at home. But a first-hand account of the goings-on in a refugee shelter articulates the frustration felt by many Germans that this is a one-way street:

    "For about a week now, 500 migrants and refugees are being housed in the gym in our neighborhood. So I went over there because I wanted to see the conditions there with my own eyes. There were about ten vehicles belonging to the Red Cross and volunteers.

    "Older men over 60 were unloading tables and benches from the trucks, cleaning them with a bucket of water and cloth, and then carrying them into the hall....

    "What made me really angry was to see the incredible lethargy of the young men. All of them in their 20s and 30s, all sitting there, smoking and looking at their cell phones, while the 60-year-old volunteers where laboring away....

    "While I was watching how the Red Cross volunteers were working and no one was helping them, I saw an unbelievable situation: an elderly gentleman was trying to carry a table into the hall when a refugee returned from the city center with a shopping bag. The elderly volunteer lifted the table halfway, looked at the migrant and moved his head asking the migrant to lend a hand. The migrant paused for a moment and then just walked away. I could hardly believe what I saw."
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sandpit said:

    notme said:

    watford30 said:



    Pop quiz: a rogue group acquires a nuclear sub. It starts blackmailing European leaders. London is first: pay or BOOM!!! We don't pay. London is nuked.

    We know the location of the sub from which the missile was fired. Let's say it is in a bay onthe Faroe Islands. We can nuke that sub and prevent Paris, Berlin, Rome also being nuked. Sadly, the Faroes is toast.

    Do you press the nuclear button?

    Don't suppose a weapon designed to explode above a city would be that good or effective at hitting a small target underwater....
    We had nuclear depth charges in the inventory for such that purpose until fairly recently.
    Hunter killer submarine with conventional torpedo or helicopter dropped conventional torpedo would be best under these hypothetical circumstances.
    Can't really foresee realistic circumstances that anyone, Cameron or Corbyn would press the nuclear button.
    I cant see circumstances in which they would take part in a first strike, but most certainly in a retaliatory strike.
    If Russia nuked Kiev, or NK lobbed something dirty at Seoul, we would retaliate and it would kick off big time. The reason that doesn't happen is that Putin and Kim KNOW what the response would look like, the fact that we have the deterrent is itself preventing the nuclear war.
    Russia will never nuke Kiev, which happens to be the cradle of Russia in history.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh dear

    Michael Deacon
    Labour speaker tells conference that Thatcher used Falklands War as "a diversion" against "our progressive policies"
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2015

    Lots of Rationals on here (there are four major groups, the Rational and Idealists [few in number, only 1% are INTJ, for example], and larger Guardians and Artisans).

    Mr. Jessop, old Damascus steel was 'contaminated' with vanadium impurities which made it stronger than other steel. Can't comment on stuff in the modern age, though.

    Mr. Charles, INTJ is also the group to which Spock belongs.

    Mr Dancer. I have never been able to work out which of those groups I belong to (each test seems to give a different result even though your group is suppose to be pretty much constant) and, even more so, if they are as scientifically valid as their promoters would imply.

    For example, I most frequently get INTJ or ENTJ, but I did a test just now to prove this point and ended up with ENFP. That's probably because I find most of the questions very ambiguous and some are multi-component where I agree with one and disagree with the other, so where I place myself on the scale is pretty variable.
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    I'm sure its been discussed already (not read the thread) but really poor of Corbyn to pull out of today's interviews etc as he's "too tired" after yesterday, same as he pulled out of them after winning the election.

    Yes I'm sure its a physically gruelling job for a 66 year old in today's 24/7 news media world. But this is a man seeking to be PM for five years starting from an election in 5 years time. I'm sure being Prime Minister for a 71-76 year old would be far more gruelling and demanding than anything Corbyn has faced in his couple of weeks as Leader of the Opposition.

    He does not seem physically up to the demands of the job he has sought. Which is no disrespect to his age, I'm sure there are 66 year olds out there who could do the job but he personally doesn't seem capable of it.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    notme said:

    MikeK said:

    Gatestone Institute ‏@GatestoneInst Sep 28
    #Germany seizing property, evicting citizens to make room for migrants @SoerenKern http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6583/germany-migrants-housing

    I always said that Merkel was a Mover and Shaker. :)

    I cant see how this isnt going to get very ugly. Usually a culture of entitlement takes a generation or two:
    "Meanwhile, politicians are demanding that German citizens do more to ensure that the migrants feel at home. But a first-hand account of the goings-on in a refugee shelter articulates the frustration felt by many Germans that this is a one-way street:

    "For about a week now, 500 migrants and refugees are being housed in the gym in our neighborhood. So I went over there because I wanted to see the conditions there with my own eyes. There were about ten vehicles belonging to the Red Cross and volunteers.

    "Older men over 60 were unloading tables and benches from the trucks, cleaning them with a bucket of water and cloth, and then carrying them into the hall....

    "What made me really angry was to see the incredible lethargy of the young men. All of them in their 20s and 30s, all sitting there, smoking and looking at their cell phones, while the 60-year-old volunteers where laboring away....

    "While I was watching how the Red Cross volunteers were working and no one was helping them, I saw an unbelievable situation: an elderly gentleman was trying to carry a table into the hall when a refugee returned from the city center with a shopping bag. The elderly volunteer lifted the table halfway, looked at the migrant and moved his head asking the migrant to lend a hand. The migrant paused for a moment and then just walked away. I could hardly believe what I saw."
    A Merkel thought that by importing these entitled slackers, she'd solve Germany's labour shortfall?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited September 2015

    I'm really torn on this issue - I think he's an excellent PM - I don't agree with some of what he says, but he says it very well.

    I don't want him to stand down. However, I'd rather he went out on a high than go mad/bad like other long standing PMs. Ho hum.

    Not keen on Ozzie. I think he's a good CoE, but not PM material.

    MTimT said:

    On topic. I think the polls should do as OGH suggests, but also continue to poll Cameron as there has to be a reasonable chance that he will change his mind. After all, his original comment that he would not continue came out as rather a spur-of-the-moment, throw-away comment, rather than a carefully planned and timed political announcement.

    I agree with you, my only hope is that he's not bitten off more than he can chew with the EU referendum, especially since the Leave side appear to have recruited Angela from Berlin to lead the charge out.

    If the current EU mess continues I wonder if he might see that the tide is turning and back Leave, taking the country with him. If that happens he will certainly have his place in history, but if he's wrong then all his good work of the last 12 years as leader could go up in smoke.

    As for next leader, I have a big lay on both GO and BJ. The former IMHO prefers the Mandleson role and will live or die with Cameron. The latter has no chance with the general membership, playing the clown works well for a mayor, less so for a PM.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    notme said:

    MikeK said:

    Gatestone Institute ‏@GatestoneInst Sep 28
    #Germany seizing property, evicting citizens to make room for migrants @SoerenKern http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6583/germany-migrants-housing

    I always said that Merkel was a Mover and Shaker. :)

    I cant see how this isnt going to get very ugly. Usually a culture of entitlement takes a generation or two:
    "Meanwhile, politicians are demanding that German citizens do more to ensure that the migrants feel at home. But a first-hand account of the goings-on in a refugee shelter articulates the frustration felt by many Germans that this is a one-way street:

    "For about a week now, 500 migrants and refugees are being housed in the gym in our neighborhood. So I went over there because I wanted to see the conditions there with my own eyes. There were about ten vehicles belonging to the Red Cross and volunteers.

    "Older men over 60 were unloading tables and benches from the trucks, cleaning them with a bucket of water and cloth, and then carrying them into the hall....

    "What made me really angry was to see the incredible lethargy of the young men. All of them in their 20s and 30s, all sitting there, smoking and looking at their cell phones, while the 60-year-old volunteers where laboring away....

    "While I was watching how the Red Cross volunteers were working and no one was helping them, I saw an unbelievable situation: an elderly gentleman was trying to carry a table into the hall when a refugee returned from the city center with a shopping bag. The elderly volunteer lifted the table halfway, looked at the migrant and moved his head asking the migrant to lend a hand. The migrant paused for a moment and then just walked away. I could hardly believe what I saw."
    The lowest of the low are coming our way and wanting to not only feed at our table, but take the table away from us too.
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    I can't stand Dr Strangelove.

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Rentool, might well be the case.

    The world's financial capital obliterated. Perhaps 10 million people dead (depending on the size and location of the strike). Swathes of southern England dangerously irradiated.

    Back to psychopaths: there's an interesting line of thought that far from being a problem, the condition arose on an evolutionary basis. If your tribe of cavemen is led by a psychopath and the enemy by an incredibly nice chap, the odds are you'll win. Psychopaths are charming, intelligent, and decisive. They're also overwhelmingly male (although not 100%, so you do occasionally meet a lady psychopath).

    I think that's right. In game theory, the psychopath usually wins by threatening convincingly to bring down the whole house on both parties.. That's the mistake the Greeks made. Schäuble was willing to risk the whole EU project to teach the Greeks a lesson.

    In nuclear deterence, it would be more effective to have a computer in charge (rather than a psychopath) that was programmed to automatically retaliate a la Dr Strangelove. No bluffing there.
    Anyone else remembering the hit 80s film Wargames?
    Absolutely!
    Perhaps (well no perhaps) 'the' best film on the subject was indeed 'Dr Strangelove'.
    I must confess my ignorance at having never seen Dr Strangelove (shock, horror, gasp).

    Wargames was a great 80s movie though.
    Dr Strangelove is a great film.

    "Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
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    I'm sure its been discussed already (not read the thread) but really poor of Corbyn to pull out of today's interviews etc as he's "too tired" after yesterday, same as he pulled out of them after winning the election.

    Yes I'm sure its a physically gruelling job for a 66 year old in today's 24/7 news media world. But this is a man seeking to be PM for five years starting from an election in 5 years time. I'm sure being Prime Minister for a 71-76 year old would be far more gruelling and demanding than anything Corbyn has faced in his couple of weeks as Leader of the Opposition.

    He does not seem physically up to the demands of the job he has sought. Which is no disrespect to his age, I'm sure there are 66 year olds out there who could do the job but he personally doesn't seem capable of it.

    I suspect he is physically capable. I doubt if he is mentally.

    Consider this: for 30 years he has basically done what HE wanted. Attended protests,Westminster, voted as he liked, said what he liked, ignored any attempts to organise him. He was a free spirit.

    Now he needs to be organised, have a schedule, persuade people to do what he wants, attend meetings he does not want.. etc..

    It's such a huge change of lifestyle, that mentally it must be very draining.
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