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edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has said that he won’t serve a third term

Last night we saw the release of the monthly ComRes phone poll for the Daily Mail showing the CON lead down 5 to 9%. There was much focus on best PM figures showing Cameron 24% ahead of the new LAB leader.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    First
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2015
    Second!

    Whcameron does not seem to be suffering any lame duck effect. When Blair made much the same announcement it was described as a huge blunder. That does not seem to have happened.

    People have either forgotten about Cameron'ss departure or maybe yhey do not believe it.
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    The thread is alive!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good morning, everyone.

    Conservative conference next week?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    It is a valid point Mike but the pollsters don't know who the Tory alternative PM will be yet. Cameron has extended the reach of the Tory party to voters others may find hard to reach. If they focus more on getting some of the UKIP 4m back then they will lose those voters.

    I think Cameron is a remarkable and exceptionally able politician. The fact that he, against pretty crap opposition, got his party a majority of 12 suggests to me that there is absolutely no room for Tory complacency, despite Labour's best efforts to stimulate it.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited September 2015
    Did anyone just see Eamonn intv Jezza? It was hilarious. Eamonn's face was a mix of incredulity, boredom and laughing to himself.

    It deserved an award.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Conservative conference next week?

    D*mn! That means central Manchester will be all bunged up
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is it over though ? Why the delay in the police getting involved ? Surely it wasn't because there was a referendum due ?

    Depends how toxic the whole thing is for Nicola, given how prominent Michelle was in the campaign, and how many photo opps they did together
    Another logical cul de sac.

    There is no damage to Nicola.
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,270
    Beverley_C said:

    Second!

    Whcameron does not seem to be suffering any lame duck effect. When Blair made much the same announcement it was described as a huge blunder. That does not seem to have happened.

    People have either forgotten about Cameron'ss departure or maybe yhey do not believe it.

    I suggest the latter.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    Another logical cul de sac.

    There is no damage to Nicola.

    Another keeper

    https://twitter.com/scotsw12/status/648959988103258112
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    For the (limited!) number of personal fans here, a snippet from ITV news with my comments from the conference:

    (drag to 6 mins 45 secs)

    http://tinyurl.com/NPconference

  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    DavidL said:

    It is a valid point Mike but the pollsters don't know who the Tory alternative PM will be yet. Cameron has extended the reach of the Tory party to voters others may find hard to reach. If they focus more on getting some of the UKIP 4m back then they will lose those voters.

    I think Cameron is a remarkable and exceptionally able politician. The fact that he, against pretty crap opposition, got his party a majority of 12 suggests to me that there is absolutely no room for Tory complacency, despite Labour's best efforts to stimulate it.

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I agree with Mike.

    However, all polling on Jeremy Corbyn for now is of limited value. He's got off to a shaky start but the public probably haven't finally settled their view of him in the same way that they have of longer established politicians.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    OldKingCole said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Second!

    Whcameron does not seem to be suffering any lame duck effect. When Blair made much the same announcement it was described as a huge blunder. That does not seem to have happened.

    People have either forgotten about Cameron'ss departure or maybe yhey do not believe it.

    I suggest the latter.
    It does seem strange that there are no preparations for his departure. I could believe that he intends to hang on to the EU referendum and then go taking any blame from his successor but they need to start organising something soon
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited September 2015
    Plato

    "Did anyone just see Eamonn intv Jezza? It was hilarious. Eamonn's face was a mix of incredulity, boredom and laughing to himself.

    It deserved an award."

    Have you ever thought about writing something interesting? Surely you can post something that isn't drivel and gossip
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    It is a valid point Mike but the pollsters don't know who the Tory alternative PM will be yet. Cameron has extended the reach of the Tory party to voters others may find hard to reach. If they focus more on getting some of the UKIP 4m back then they will lose those voters.

    I think Cameron is a remarkable and exceptionally able politician. The fact that he, against pretty crap opposition, got his party a majority of 12 suggests to me that there is absolutely no room for Tory complacency, despite Labour's best efforts to stimulate it.

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.
    Crosby certainly helped but he is a salesman dependent on the quality of his product. I think it is doubtful that whoever is doing the selling the next time around will have a product as sellable as Cameron.

  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger...maybe you should show Plato how to do that...we will wait..
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Firstly if Corbyn is still Labour leader in 2020 I think Cameron will probably fight a third election anyway to ensure he is beaten. Even if Corbyn is replaced, perhaps by Hilary Benn, Cameron may stay on if EU ref was a narrow In to ensure stability. Third Comres have already given net favourabilty scores comparing Corbyn to the likes of Boris and May and Osborne and Corbyn trails all of them, Boris by even more than Cameron. Finally we are in the equivalent of 2001 to 2005 not 2005 to 2010
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato_Says said:

    Did anyone just see Eamonn intv Jezza? It was hilarious. Eamonn's face was a mix of incredulity, boredom and laughing to himself.

    It deserved an award.

    @elashton: Eamonn Holmes on interviewing Jeremy Corbyn: "It's like clubbing a seal"
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    NickPalmer said:

    For the (limited!) number of personal fans here, a snippet from ITV news with my comments from the conference:

    (drag to 6 mins 45 secs)

    http://tinyurl.com/NPconference

    Blimey Nick, you are turning into Tony Benn.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    Plato

    "Did anyone just see Eamonn intv Jezza? It was hilarious. Eamonn's face was a mix of incredulity, boredom and laughing to himself.

    It deserved an award."

    Have you ever thought about writing something interesting? Surely you can post something that isn't drivel and gossip

    Oh Roger.. You wrote this and you are PB's Golden Duck.. Never call anything right, PB relies on you so they can bet the opposite..

    You are morphing into tim in terms of personal abuse.

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Yes, it would be good to see polling along these lines. But the new Tory leader will be the sitting PM at the next election, if they have any sense.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited September 2015
    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Root, not the case for the Oscars.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Morning all! Been away for a few days so catching up. Reading yesterday's threads, oh to be a fly on the wall of Neil Kinnock's office today, realising that the people he spend the best part of a decade throwing out of the party are not just back, but back with a vengeance and being welcomed to Conference by th new leader. Including the speech writers!!

    Are any bookies offering odds that the Conservatives decide to start each day of their conference with everyone standing for the National Anthem..?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    With five years less 4 months to go, it is hard to get excited on Westminster polling. Imagine a Jezza 5 years older and looking more haggard, vs the master strategist.

    Scots, Welsh polling and a couple of tasty byelections in Scotland could be interesting though
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JC would lose to any of the top 10 Con candidates frankly. The Pollsters and the dogs on the street know this.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    fair point
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Root, not the case for the Oscars.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Foxinsox, but Corbyn saying he'll form a coalition with the SNP (if needs be) means the 2015 campaign can be dusted off, and this time they can add lots of quotes about Hamas, the Falklands and so on.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited September 2015
    On topic, assuming the referendum is won for the PM, he would surely either resign immediately having cemented his legacy, or will wait until the election. Maybe he might hand over to a new Conservative leader a year before the election while remaining as PM, allowing his successor to concentrate on policy to win another majority. DC can then implement what's left of the manifesto and get some contentious stuff like Trident, Fracking and HS2 through, without having to fight the election himself.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    hmm.... TSE was it you?

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 53 secs54 seconds ago
    I'm delighted to say some Tory voters helped me in my leadership campaign - @jeremycorbyn @BBCr4today
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    hmm.... TSE was it you?

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 53 secs54 seconds ago
    I'm delighted to say some Tory voters helped me in my leadership campaign - @jeremycorbyn @BBCr4today

    Nope. I was a Tory4Burnham
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, was it the mascara that tempted you?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    foxinsoxuk said:

    With five years less 4 months to go, it is hard to get excited on Westminster polling. Imagine a Jezza 5 years older and looking more haggard, vs the master strategist.

    Scots, Welsh polling and a couple of tasty byelections in Scotland could be interesting though

    That is the other fallacy. Does anyone really believe that Corbyn is actually going to lead Labour into the next election? At 69 or whatever? Surely he will have run out of old speeches long before then.

    So the next PM is really an unknown against an unknown. Perhaps the pollsters shouldn't bother.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Scrapheap as was...A brilliant move on the part of those particular Tory voters...and Corbyn and co don't really understand it yet... Cameron has got the perfect opposition eader..
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited September 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Mr Dancer, F1 is looking more and more a complete shambles every day at the moment. The idea that the teams help write the rules, and that the contracts are shrouded in secrecy is just not acceptable for what is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Any sport.
    The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxinsox, but Corbyn saying he'll form a coalition with the SNP (if needs be) means the 2015 campaign can be dusted off, and this time they can add lots of quotes about Hamas, the Falklands and so on.

    The Scottish question could be much less pertinent in 2020, depending on how events work out, but the prospect of Ms Sturgeon pulling Corbyn's strings or even as PM is not going to have the same effect. Indeed Ms Sturgeon being in the driving seat may up the Labour vote!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, was it the mascara that tempted you?

    No. It was that he's so crap.

    He was CCHQ's first choice until Corbyn got involved.

    The Tories have and would wrapped Stafford round his neck. It would have been utterly brutal.

    Andy Burnham the Westminster village idiot.
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Conservative conference next week?

    Yes, i have my pass!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Sandpit, the issue that only some teams get to write the rules. And some teams get more money (typically, those who already have larger budgets). And the engines. And the tyres.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.

    Crosby certainly helped but he is a salesman dependent on the quality of his product. I think it is doubtful that whoever is doing the selling the next time around will have a product as sellable as Cameron.
    And he certainly won´t have the Lib Dems in government with him, helping to de-toxify the Tory brand.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    With five years less 4 months to go, it is hard to get excited on Westminster polling. Imagine a Jezza 5 years older and looking more haggard, vs the master strategist.

    Scots, Welsh polling and a couple of tasty byelections in Scotland could be interesting though

    That is the other fallacy. Does anyone really believe that Corbyn is actually going to lead Labour into the next election? At 69 or whatever? Surely he will have run out of old speeches long before then.

    So the next PM is really an unknown against an unknown. Perhaps the pollsters shouldn't bother.
    The Soviets managed with old speeches for 70 yrs or more
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    PClipp Getting rid of the Limp Debs was like shaking off the randy dog trying to shag your leg..
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.

    Crosby certainly helped but he is a salesman dependent on the quality of his product. I think it is doubtful that whoever is doing the selling the next time around will have a product as sellable as Cameron.
    And he certainly won´t have the Lib Dems in government with him, helping to de-toxify the Tory brand.
    The Lib Dems? Who are they?

    As an aside the Lib Dems are utterly toxic.

    Every Lib Dem who served in cabinet in the last parliament apart from Clegg either lost their seat or ended up in court.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Dont' forget: and if they don't get a guaranteed top step of the podium for whoever is their favoured driver.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.

    Crosby certainly helped but he is a salesman dependent on the quality of his product. I think it is doubtful that whoever is doing the selling the next time around will have a product as sellable as Cameron.
    And he certainly won´t have the Lib Dems in government with him, helping to de-toxify the Tory brand.
    Or such easy pickings either. A Corbyn led Labour party would offer another slew of seats but I still can't see Labour being that stupid. If Labour get their act together and there is a slow down before the next election (which I think is likely) it will be tough.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the issue that only some teams get to write the rules. And some teams get more money (typically, those who already have larger budgets). And the engines. And the tyres.

    ...and the pay TV deals that enrich FOM while reducing exposure for teams and their sponsors. And the obsession with government-backed races in backwards countries at the expense of the classic circuits. And the massively complicated front wings making it difficult to follow the car in front. And the lack of allowed engine development or car testing entrenching the performance differentials across several seasons.... I would carry on but this isn't f1betting.com Grr.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited September 2015
    Indeed, Mr. Jessop. Losing 4 cars (potentially 6, with Lotus, that's still not secure) would be a bad state of affairs, especially as Ricciardo, Kvyat, Sainz and Verstappen are all good drivers.

    And yet some respite from the never-ending bleating would be very welcome.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, they're trying to improve the aerodynamic situation by having wider front wings and smaller rear wings which should make it easier to follow a car through the corners.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SquareRoot said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    With five years less 4 months to go, it is hard to get excited on Westminster polling. Imagine a Jezza 5 years older and looking more haggard, vs the master strategist.

    Scots, Welsh polling and a couple of tasty byelections in Scotland could be interesting though

    That is the other fallacy. Does anyone really believe that Corbyn is actually going to lead Labour into the next election? At 69 or whatever? Surely he will have run out of old speeches long before then.

    So the next PM is really an unknown against an unknown. Perhaps the pollsters shouldn't bother.
    The Soviets managed with old speeches for 70 yrs or more
    Yeah, but they also skipped the getting elected thing.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    One other point: if I was Bernie, I would be more pi***ed off at Red Bull annoying Renault, who have a much longer and prestigious position in the sport than the drinks company.

    How can F1 attract more chassis / engine manufacturers in if they get treated as Red Bull have treated Renault?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    I thought it was Crosby who won it for the Tories.

    Crosby certainly helped but he is a salesman dependent on the quality of his product. I think it is doubtful that whoever is doing the selling the next time around will have a product as sellable as Cameron.
    And he certainly won´t have the Lib Dems in government with him, helping to de-toxify the Tory brand.
    That job is already done, as much as is possible at any rate, so it depends if the Tories actually go hard right crazy or are just accused of doing so. If they are cautious and sensible then accusations won't have as much impact.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Will you be live posting from there for us?

    I was tempted to go to Labour's, but then I decided that the torture wouldn't be worth the amusement value. Tory one is too far for me - have fun
    notme said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Conservative conference next week?

    Yes, i have my pass!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    This will be the reaction in the country when Dave quits

    http://youtu.be/pSWN6Qj98Iw
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    The people that keep winning have a 'toxic' brand?

    How bad must the losers' brands be?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited September 2015
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    Given he would surely only stay on if what counts as evidence suggested he would win, I think people would forgive him on that. Not to mention it is possible to change your mind on things, unlike stating you had not done something which you definitely did, so it is not quite the same.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Mr Dancer, F1 is looking more and more a complete shambles every day at the moment. The idea that the teams help write the rules, and that the contracts are shrouded in secrecy is just not acceptable for what is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Any sport.
    The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
    Am I the only PBer to have met Bernie? ;)

    (In my usual style, it was a purely accidental meeting and I did not realise who he was for a few minutes).

    I must admit that I have a lot of time for Bernie. He made F1 into the worldwide success it has become, and has been involved on-and-off from the very first championship race in 1950. Having said that, it's becoming clear that the F1 he created of backroom deals and handshake agreements is not particularly fit for the modern world.

    And he's not the man to change that.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    Having thought about it more last night the one limitation on the broader interpretation given by the Court of Session is that there has to be an election in which the liar is a candidate. Carmichael's mistake was to lie about the leak in the election period. Lies at any other time, for example about having independent legal advice about EU membership, still won't count.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

    Bloody economic migrants going over there...changing the fabric of the colonies.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I wanted to smack the TV. The best bit is we're building a prison there for 300 prisoners - they cost us £10m pa here and we're finally getting rid of them.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

    Ugh, and an apology. Look, you cannot make up for a thing like slavery, the best you can do is stop doing it and trying to stop others doing it. Isn't that a type of apology?

    Good day to all.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Fink has his 2p "Bad news for Labour: you’re stuck with him" http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4571387.ece
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. kle4, intriguing how nobody asks for reparations from the 'other side' (the sellers of slaves, who were black Africans...), or other forms of slavery (those who continued it after we abolished it, or those who had white slaves).

    Still, I look forward to our reparations from the Germans, Scandinavians, Normans, Romans, Irish (Scots invading the Picts) and the Spanish [for the Armada].

    On a more serious note, in early America it's my understanding that Irish and Chinese immigrants had terrible conditions. But that rarely gets mentioned.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    chestnut said:

    The people that keep winning have a 'toxic' brand?

    How bad must the losers' brands be?

    Yes, that's about the size of it.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

    Ugh, and an apology. Look, you cannot make up for a thing like slavery, the best you can do is stop doing it and trying to stop others doing it. Isn't that a type of apology?

    Good day to all.
    Are they going to seek reparations from all the African and Arab traders who were involved in the trade as well?

    And what about the steps which Britain took to stop the slave trade? Do we get credit for that?

    The past has happened. Those who suffered cannot be apologised to because they are dead and those living now are not responsible for what their ancestors did. The sins of the father are not borne by the sons etc.

    The best we can do is to stop it happening again and deal with its modern day equivalent. May deserves some credit for what she is trying to do in this area. More power to her elbow, frankly.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @philipjcowley: Deep inside CCHQ, the press team have just decided to take the day off... https://t.co/M5FtfeYTt1
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RupertMyers: People pretending Corbyn only ruled out killing millions: he didn't, he just rendered the UK's nuclear deterrent pointless if Labour wins
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

    Ugh, and an apology. Look, you cannot make up for a thing like slavery, the best you can do is stop doing it and trying to stop others doing it. Isn't that a type of apology?

    Good day to all.
    Are they going to seek reparations from all the African and Arab traders who were involved in the trade as well?

    And what about the steps which Britain took to stop the slave trade? Do we get credit for that?

    The past has happened. Those who suffered cannot be apologised to because they are dead and those living now are not responsible for what their ancestors did. The sins of the father are not borne by the sons etc.

    The best we can do is to stop it happening again and deal with its modern day equivalent. May deserves some credit for what she is trying to do in this area. More power to her elbow, frankly.

    Not that there are natives left, but if we're diggi g up the past, perhaps the Jamaicans should vacate the island? Their presence perpetuates the ongoing legacy of slavery on other regions. Granted, that's a stupid, offensive idea, but stupid ideas seem usual in these manufactured outrage diplomatic issues.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    @thedailymash: Tests on Audi cars find they contain tossers http://t.co/cC5A68BcEi http://t.co/VfvxOqIRNe
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all! Been away for a few days so catching up. Reading yesterday's threads, oh to be a fly on the wall of Neil Kinnock's office today, realising that the people he spend the best part of a decade throwing out of the party are not just back, but back with a vengeance and being welcomed to Conference by th new leader. Including the speech writers!!

    Are any bookies offering odds that the Conservatives decide to start each day of their conference with everyone standing for the National Anthem..?

    I'll take the other side of that bet.

    What odds/size?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Here is something to get the swivel-eyed in our midst foaming at the mouth:

    "Almost £6bn of the UK’s foreign aid budget will be spent on tackling climate change in poor countries over the next five years, David Cameron has said, as Britain steps up its contributions by 50 per cent to help meet international targets."
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Mr Dancer, F1 is looking more and more a complete shambles every day at the moment. The idea that the teams help write the rules, and that the contracts are shrouded in secrecy is just not acceptable for what is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Any sport.
    The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
    Am I the only PBer to have met Bernie? ;)

    (In my usual style, it was a purely accidental meeting and I did not realise who he was for a few minutes).

    I must admit that I have a lot of time for Bernie. He made F1 into the worldwide success it has become, and has been involved on-and-off from the very first championship race in 1950. Having said that, it's becoming clear that the F1 he created of backroom deals and handshake agreements is not particularly fit for the modern world.

    And he's not the man to change that.
    F1 is a "sport" for lawyers, and a sport that someone owns. I cannot take it seriously.
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,270
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, intriguing how nobody asks for reparations from the 'other side' (the sellers of slaves, who were black Africans...), or other forms of slavery (those who continued it after we abolished it, or those who had white slaves).

    Still, I look forward to our reparations from the Germans, Scandinavians, Normans, Romans, Irish (Scots invading the Picts) and the Spanish [for the Armada].

    On a more serious note, in early America it's my understanding that Irish and Chinese immigrants had terrible conditions. But that rarely gets mentioned.

    Further, what reparations should be asked/demanded by the likes of Tanzania for the slaves obtained from there and sent to Arabia? And from whom. Turkey, as the then occupying poers? Or Saudi Arabia and Yemen?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    He never expected a majority or Labour to elect Corbyn
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Mr Dancer, F1 is looking more and more a complete shambles every day at the moment. The idea that the teams help write the rules, and that the contracts are shrouded in secrecy is just not acceptable for what is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Any sport.
    The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
    Am I the only PBer to have met Bernie? ;)

    (In my usual style, it was a purely accidental meeting and I did not realise who he was for a few minutes).

    I must admit that I have a lot of time for Bernie. He made F1 into the worldwide success it has become, and has been involved on-and-off from the very first championship race in 1950. Having said that, it's becoming clear that the F1 he created of backroom deals and handshake agreements is not particularly fit for the modern world.

    And he's not the man to change that.
    I think that's a very fair assessment.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast

    We have already had one EU referendum though this would be the second
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    How much use are polls five years out from an election anyway? They weren't much use five days out from the last one, let alone....

    I also query the value, other than as gossip fodder here of a hypothetical match up between Sajid Javid, say, an Jeremy Corbyn. Nobody knows who the hell the former is, let alone how he'd perform leading his party. It all just seems ludicrously early... I appreciate DC won't be the candidate, but the voting public know so little about who may be and what their pitch would be that the exercise seems worthless other than as a way for experienced gamblers to steal a few quid off those who overreact.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    edited September 2015
    foxinsoxuk said:

    With five years less 4 months to go, it is hard to get excited on Westminster polling.

    Lucy Powell was saying yesterday that "it is at least five years until the next general election", I know what she meant but it made me grin to hear the new shadow education secretary put it like that.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Plato_Says said:

    The Fink has his 2p "Bad news for Labour: you’re stuck with him" http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4571387.ece

    Still think Hillary Benn will take over
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    foxinsoxuk said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: had to laugh at this, from the BBC gossip page:
    "Ecclestone has warned that Red Bull could walk out of Formula 1 if European Union investigators demand that they hand back £46m in special payments."

    And if they don't get the engine they want. And if they don't start winning. And if every race doesn't start with the drivers enjoying the great benefits of a certain energy drink.

    Mr Dancer, F1 is looking more and more a complete shambles every day at the moment. The idea that the teams help write the rules, and that the contracts are shrouded in secrecy is just not acceptable for what is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Any sport.
    The best thing that could happen to it right now is either a breakaway series or for a certain octogenarian dwarf to shuffle off the scene permanently.
    Am I the only PBer to have met Bernie? ;)

    (In my usual style, it was a purely accidental meeting and I did not realise who he was for a few minutes).

    I must admit that I have a lot of time for Bernie. He made F1 into the worldwide success it has become, and has been involved on-and-off from the very first championship race in 1950. Having said that, it's becoming clear that the F1 he created of backroom deals and handshake agreements is not particularly fit for the modern world.

    And he's not the man to change that.
    F1 is a "sport" for lawyers, and a sport that someone owns. I cannot take it seriously.
    As I've said many times passim, F1 is not a sport. It is a business masquerading as a sport. Once you realise that, it's much easier to watch.

    It's also much more honest about it than football.
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast

    They should open a spread market on how many hours Nigel will stick to that line after the result is announced and before adoring and tearful fans on the UKIP exec successfully prevail upon him to reverse his position.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    In other news:

    Three Libyan soldiers jailed for raping women in Cambridge have applied for Asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-34392667

    Can we as a country apply for asylum from them?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    How much use are polls five years out from an election anyway? They weren't much use five days out from the last one, let alone....

    I also query the value, other than as gossip fodder here of a hypothetical match up between Sajid Javid, say, an Jeremy Corbyn. Nobody knows who the hell the former is, let alone how he'd perform leading his party. It all just seems ludicrously early... I appreciate DC won't be the candidate, but the voting public know so little about who may be and what their pitch would be that the exercise seems worthless other than as a way for experienced gamblers to steal a few quid off those who overreact.

    I agree with this, the future leader of the tories is unknown, so it would be silly dealing with the future unknown unknowns, and of very little value.

    The positioning and stall which Osborne, Boris, Javid etc would make their play on would by its very nature effect how the public see them.
  • blackburn63
    blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    SandyRentool said:

    Here is something to get the swivel-eyed in our midst foaming at the mouth:

    "Almost £6bn of the UK’s foreign aid budget will be spent on tackling climate change in poor countries over the next five years, David Cameron has said, as Britain steps up its contributions by 50 per cent to help meet international targets."

    Its certainly got me foaming at the mouth.

  • blackburn63
    blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast

    We have already had one EU referendum though this would be the second
    That's not true though is it.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Marvellous, I knew £3 was a bargain.
    Corbyn tells @BBCr4today he would never push the nuclear button, immigration is not a problem + clear strategy to appeal non-voters
    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: Deep inside CCHQ, the press team have just decided to take the day off... https://t.co/M5FtfeYTt1

  • blackburn63
    blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Jamaica wants reparations for slavery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34398014

    They can sod off. Be interesting to hear the Chairman's view on it, though.

    Ugh, and an apology. Look, you cannot make up for a thing like slavery, the best you can do is stop doing it and trying to stop others doing it. Isn't that a type of apology?

    Good day to all.
    Are they going to seek reparations from all the African and Arab traders who were involved in the trade as well?

    And what about the steps which Britain took to stop the slave trade? Do we get credit for that?

    The past has happened. Those who suffered cannot be apologised to because they are dead and those living now are not responsible for what their ancestors did. The sins of the father are not borne by the sons etc.

    The best we can do is to stop it happening again and deal with its modern day equivalent. May deserves some credit for what she is trying to do in this area. More power to her elbow, frankly.

    Perhaps we can pay Jamaica out of the money we get from the Romans and Vikings
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    SandyRentool said:

    Here is something to get the swivel-eyed in our midst foaming at the mouth:

    "Almost £6bn of the UK’s foreign aid budget will be spent on tackling climate change in poor countries over the next five years, David Cameron has said, as Britain steps up its contributions by 50 per cent to help meet international targets."

    Foaming completely justified. Serious doubts about the efficacy of such expenditure.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Cameron's great legacy to the Tories will be Labour's post-GE implosion and the election of Jeremy Corbyn. After the EU election is out of the way, what more can he reasonably hope to achieve in politics? He will also not want to deal with the end of the Union, which will become a very live issue again after the Tory victory in 2020. Better to leave that to his successor.

    As for Corbyn, the day after and his speech is even worse than it was yesterday. As he sees it, the UK is divided into the Tories and the desperately poor who are being shafted by them. What he genuinely does not seem to understand is that most people do not live in poverty and that the only way to do anything about the ones who do is to form a prospectus that has some relevance to the majority.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    Having thought about it more last night the one limitation on the broader interpretation given by the Court of Session is that there has to be an election in which the liar is a candidate. Carmichael's mistake was to lie about the leak in the election period. Lies at any other time, for example about having independent legal advice about EU membership, still won't count.
    Morning, DavidL. Interesting comment. Yet I can't quite get my head around it, as the ROPA does say in section 106 "A person who [...] before or during an election [...] ".

    Note that 'before', or am I missing something? Interesting implications if so, especially as we all know when the next election is (or it will be even sooner), so it would be hard to deny prior knowledge.


  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ScottP..I think the CCHQ team are hard at it supplying Corbyn with interview material..
  • flightpath01
    flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Most voters will not have heard of Javed, as an example of how still pointless such polls will be. Most will not have heard of 'former soldier' Dan Jarvis as a labour alternative to Corbyn.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Indeed.

    Dave will be gone by 2019 to give the next Tory leader an incumbency boost as PM.

    I think Dave likes the position of being one of the few PMs who went at the time of their own choosing nor as he gone 'mad' in power as some PMs have.

    I think Cameron will fight one more election if Corbyn is leader and could also stay for stability post EU ref
    You mean you think Cameron lied to the electorate. Good job he doesn't represent a Scottish seat.
    He never expected a majority or Labour to elect Corbyn
    "I'll only serve one more term as long as I lose the election"
  • flightpath01
    flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast

    They should open a spread market on how many hours Nigel will stick to that line after the result is announced and before adoring and tearful fans on the UKIP exec successfully prevail upon him to reverse his position.
    He is in danger of turning this into a referendum on Nigel Farage.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    OMG - Think of the betting opportunities and the PB threads I'll be able to write on this

    The BBC is planning an X Factor-style UK national final for the 2016 Eurovision entries

    http://bit.ly/1JBR2vK
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I agree with Nigel shocker

    @politicshome: Farage: "I don't want to become like the @theSNP," by calling for another EU referendum if Britain votes to stay. #playbookbreakfast

    We have already had one EU referendum though this would be the second
    No we haven't. We have only had a Common Market (EEC) referendum.

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