politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can’t assume that the next CON leader will enjoy the sam

Hi Fiona,

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If you require any further information please let me know.

Regards
Geoff

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Malcolm

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Tony

Hi Tony,

I've had a look at all the papers regarding DFC's request and Eileen and I have had a chat about it.

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[REDACTED]

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Let me know if you want to discuss further.
Kind regards
Hannah

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Only 10% ahead of Osborne?!?! A 10% differential is enough to entirely swing the result of an election.

PBTories often baffle me, but this idea that Osborne is some wildly popular giant who the public would adore if he became leader has been particularly odd. I know people IRL who aren't that interested in politics but who absolutely detest him, say they'd want to punch him if they met him, etc.

And as Brown found out, while being seen as "competent" might be enough to be Chancellor, a popular party leader these days needs to be likeable, no ifs no buts.

Danny565 said:

PBTories often baffle me, but this idea that Osborne is some wildly popular giant who the public would adore if he became leader has been particularly odd. I know people IRL who aren't that interested in politics but who absolutely detest him, say they'd want to punch him if they met him, etc.

blackburn63 said:

As a self employed person I'm interested to hear Corbyn's plans but reserve the right to say they are total bollox. The maternity/paternity pay thing, for example, is totally unworkable, an administrative nightmare.

NickPalmer said:

Sorry, but this is bollocks.

Jeremy Corbyn unveils his first official policy since becoming leader of the Labour Party, with plans for a “People’s Railway” under which his government would fast-track a renationalisation of England’s rail network.

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Being a Chancellor who is having to eliminate an inherited £150bn deficit is never going to be a popular task for anyone, the fact that his net ratings aren't even worse is a relative positive for Osborne.

That would be an excellent point had he actually reduced the deficit. As it is the Tories have been giving out sweets like an amiable uncle at Christmas. They have even been offering subsidised savings products to the retired. One might wonder why this profligacy hasn't bought a few more friends.

PeterC said:

Labour are talking too much about policy. Its far too early in the parliament and it will tie them up in knots. An Opposition should oppose.

malcolmg said:

Plato_Says said:

There was a debate on FPT about Dan Jarvis and whether being a Services man would be a vote winner with the selectorate - well according to Ms Sylvester the The Labour Friends of the Forces stall has been abandoned.

The one next door campaigning for banning fur sales is buzzing. Oh and the free conference magazine has a cartoon of Corbyn rising phoenix like from the burning corpse of Tony Blair. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4570406.ece

Nobody gives a monkeys chuff if someone has been in the Services. It is a career choice and nothing else, does not make them special. Just means they are happy to be told what to do and when to do it.

Pulpstar said:

blackburn63 said:

I don't understand the gist of that, but self employed people declare as little as poss, would be interesting to see the discrepancies when paternity pay is being claimed.

What's the situation regarding tax credits and self employed people... I can see that one being a mahoosive COI !

Slackbladder said:

Pulpstar said:

blackburn63 said:

I don't understand the gist of that, but self employed people declare as little as poss, would be interesting to see the discrepancies when paternity pay is being claimed.

What's the situation regarding tax credits and self employed people... I can see that one being a mahoosive COI !

SE people can claim tax credits it's generally best to be low on income so higher tax credits

Seems to reverse when they want a mortgage however...ho hum.

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Only 10% ahead of Osborne?!?! A 10% differential is enough to entirely swing the result of an election.

PBTories often baffle me, but this idea that Osborne is some wildly popular giant who the public would adore if he became leader has been particularly odd. I know people IRL who aren't that interested in politics but who absolutely detest him, say they'd want to punch him if they met him, etc.

And as Brown found out, while being seen as "competent" might be enough to be Chancellor, a popular party leader these days needs to be likeable, no ifs no buts.

DavidL said:

On topic I think that Cameron has been consistently underestimated as a leader, as a campaigner and as a PM. It is inevitable that the Tory appeal will be diminished without him.

A Labour party offering a serious choice and a credible platform would have had an excellent chance in 2020. The economy will simply not perform with the consistency that it did in 2010-2015. The road is going to get bumpier and this will diminish Osborne's standing along with the government's lead in competence (or at least it would all other things being equal).

But Labour have not chosen this path. They have chosen Corbyn and McDonnell. This means, Major like, pretty much any of the top Tories will lead them to a modest and slightly unenthusiastic victory in 2020. In fact, on reflection, that analogy is very unfair to Neil Kinnock. Whether Labour can then recover for 2025 depends upon the ability of their membership to learn painful but necessary lessons.

TOPPING said:

Plato_Says said:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Some extracts have been released in advance. Here’s Patrick Wintour’s preview story, and here’s how it starts.

Edit: snipped

He will say: “It is because I am driven by these British majority values, because I love this country, that I want to rid it of injustice to make it more fair, more decent, more equal.”

Corbyn’s avowal of his love for his country will be seen as a riposte to criticisms following his decision not to sing the national anthem at the Battle of Britain commemoration ceremony.

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

chestnut said:

malcolmg said:

Nobody gives a monkeys chuff if someone has been in the Services.

Corbyn is today having to justify whether he is a patriot or not. Do you think he'd be in that position if he'd served in Afghanistan or Iraq?

weejonnie said:

Osborne isn't liked because Chancellors are never liked (They take away my money). IF (and it is a big if) he balances the books by 2020 then he'll walk it due to his perceived competence. (And don't forget other demographics/ constituency changes/ SNP trashing Scotland over the next 4 years)

Philip_Thompson said:

PeterC said:

Labour are talking too much about policy. Its far too early in the parliament and it will tie them up in knots. An Opposition should oppose.

An opposition should oppose yes but just opposing everything without providing an alternative (ie the Ed Miliband policy) doesn't work either.

Slackbladder said:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 14 mins14 minutes ago

Corbyn will promise in his speech to give the self-employed access to maternity, paternity and sick pay http://bit.ly/1iHcYjG

I wonder how the state will be able to check sick days from the self-employed??

That'll be fun..

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: You can't look at the messenger in isolation from the message. You don't need to be a political genius to figure out what the Conservative message in 2020 is going to be, in fact they are already repeating it ad nauseam and will continue to do so for the next five years.

Thus, since the message is going to be one of stability, continuity and security, the next leader will be someone who can embody that message. That puts Osborne at a considerable advantage (and Boris at a considerable, probably fatal, disadvantage). At the very least I think we can be pretty sure that the next leader will be either Osborne, or Osborne-approved - perhaps one of his protegés - and that (because of the importance of continuity to the political message) he or she will be someone who is currently in the cabinet. He or she may, however, not be one of the obvious names.

Of course, all the above assumes that the referendum is won by the In side. If not, all bets are off and you need to look at whichever senior Conservative led the Out side. Owen Paterson at odds of 80/1 or 66/1 (or more on the Betfair Next PM market) remains value.

Plato_Says said:

More on rail nationalisation http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Jeremy Corbyn unveils his first official policy since becoming leader of the Labour Party, with plans for a “People’s Railway” under which his government would fast-track a renationalisation of England’s rail network.

Plato_Says said:

I'm getting really confused - Lisa Nandy is now saying Labour doesn't want to nationalise energy firms - but wants communities to own their local one instead, or something called *democratised energy* DT live

Philip_Thompson said:

ReggieCide said:

Slackbladder said:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 14 mins14 minutes ago

Corbyn will promise in his speech to give the self-employed access to maternity, paternity and sick pay http://bit.ly/1iHcYjG

I wonder how the state will be able to check sick days from the self-employed??

That'll be fun..

same as they do for the employed - self certification

Except for the employed those who are "sick" aren't working on their sick days.
For the self-employed they could be "sick" which still working on their business and claim sick pay for the sick period and then process business receipts for once they're 'healthy' again.

Charles said:

@NickPalmer

One important point: buying posh cufflinks is not "investing' it's "spending".

This may go some way towards explaining Labour's difficulties with a balanced budget.

Slackbladder said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ReggieCide said:

Slackbladder said:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 14 mins14 minutes ago

Corbyn will promise in his speech to give the self-employed access to maternity, paternity and sick pay http://bit.ly/1iHcYjG

I wonder how the state will be able to check sick days from the self-employed??

That'll be fun..

same as they do for the employed - self certification

Except for the employed those who are "sick" aren't working on their sick days.
For the self-employed they could be "sick" which still working on their business and claim sick pay for the sick period and then process business receipts for once they're 'healthy' again.

Or going on holiday... whats the chances you have plenty of self-employed sick for a couple of weeks during the summer?

Scott_P said:

@Politics_co_uk: The Labour party will now 'automatically' support all strikes http://t.co/QyG5RnKesM #lab15

Scott_P said:

@Politics_co_uk: The Labour party will now 'automatically' support all strikes http://t.co/QyG5RnKesM #lab15

bigjohnowls said:

WTF is Lilian Greenwood wearing

Jonathan said:

People are criticising Corbyn's speech in the wrong terms. It's not radically left wing. What we know of it so far is very close to Cameron's leadership speech.

Patriotism, compassion, the need to change the party, the need to engage the young, to move away from PMQ style politics.

It's all there.

Philip_Thompson said:

ReggieCide said:

Slackbladder said:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 14 mins14 minutes ago

Corbyn will promise in his speech to give the self-employed access to maternity, paternity and sick pay http://bit.ly/1iHcYjG

I wonder how the state will be able to check sick days from the self-employed??

That'll be fun..

same as they do for the employed - self certification

Except for the employed those who are "sick" aren't working on their sick days.
For the self-employed they could be "sick" which still working on their business and claim sick pay for the sick period and then process business receipts for once they're 'healthy' again.