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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can’t assume that the next CON leader will enjoy the same personal premium that Cameron has had

The big known unknown of British politics is what is going to happen when David Cameron, as he’s said he will, steps down and won’t pursue a third term.

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JohnLoony

Languidly but fast

JackW

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

RobD

JackW said:

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

JCWNBFLOTT.
Rolls of the tongue.

tlg86

JackW said:

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

Do you think he'll make it to the election? I was thinking 'Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Contest a General Election as Leader of the Opposition'.

JackW

RobD said:

JackW said:

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

JCWNBFLOTT.
Rolls of the tongue.

I await :

JCICIFLOTT

Robert_Of_Sheffield

My feeling is that Cameron will go fairly soon after the EU referendum. If he loses, his positions will be pretty weak, but if he wins, he'll get to go out on a high note, which has to be appealing.

This means the next Conservative leadership election will be fought while memories of the EU referendum are still fresh, and will be influenced by its result. I can't really see them selecting anyone who turned out to be on the losing side of the referendum campaign, but anyone who has a good referendum will improve their chances.

Even if Conservative MPs weren't allowed to openly campaign against Cameron in the referendum, the other MPs will still know which side they really supported, and judge them accordingly.

Thus, betting on the next conservative leader is partly a bet on the result of the EU referendum. Will George Osborne turn out to be on the winning side of that vote?

JackW

tlg86 said:

JackW said:

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

Do you think he'll make it to the election? I was thinking 'Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Contest a General Election as Leader of the Opposition'.

Political indulgence has a limited shelf life especially when faced with the harsh reality that Jezza non-believers will deliver at the ballot box.

2020 General Election - Jezza long gone but not forgotten.

blackburn63

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

My feeling is that Cameron will go fairly soon after the EU referendum. If he loses, his positions will be pretty weak, but if he wins, he'll get to go out on a high note, which has to be appealing.

This means the next Conservative leadership election will be fought while memories of the EU referendum are still fresh, and will be influenced by its result. I can't really see them selecting anyone who turned out to be on the losing side of the referendum campaign, but anyone who has a good referendum will improve their chances.

Even if Conservative MPs weren't allowed to openly campaign against Cameron in the referendum, the other MPs will still know which side they really supported, and judge them accordingly.

Thus, betting on the next conservative leader is partly a bet on the result of the EU referendum. Will George Osborne turn out to be on the winning side of that vote?

The EU referendum is going to be the defining moment of Cameron's career, whatever you think of him he's no fool and he'll be acutely aware of his place in history. If he loses his position is not pretty weak, it's untenable, you cannot campaign to stay in and then lead the negotiations to leave, he ends in dismal failure and humiliation. If he wins of course, he waves goodbye having saved both the Union and the EU, his legacy secured.

Latest polls show a significant move towards OUT, Corbyn has kept the EU out of the news for a while and the pro EU BBC has been happy to highlight rifts in the OUT campaign, but it's anybody's guess what the result will be when not long ago it was a shoo in for IN. His renegotiation has been exposed as a farce, the gun is well and truly against Cameron's head, his whole future is at stake.

david_herdson

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

TCPoliticalBetting

Talking of the Treasury.
Just look at who is undertaking a study for Labour.
http://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/bob-kerslake-carry-out-treasury-review-labour

After attacking the Govt on right to buy for housing associations....

NickPalmer

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

My feeling is that Cameron will go fairly soon after the EU referendum. If he loses, his positions will be pretty weak, but if he wins, he'll get to go out on a high note, which has to be appealing.

This means the next Conservative leadership election will be fought while memories of the EU referendum are still fresh, and will be influenced by its result. I can't really see them selecting anyone who turned out to be on the losing side of the referendum campaign, but anyone who has a good referendum will improve their chances.

Even if Conservative MPs weren't allowed to openly campaign against Cameron in the referendum, the other MPs will still know which side they really supported, and judge them accordingly.

Thus, betting on the next conservative leader is partly a bet on the result of the EU referendum. Will George Osborne turn out to be on the winning side of that vote?

Not really my business, but that makes sense. There's not been the faintest hint that Osborne will recommend Out, so we should assume he won't. The current shambolic Out campaign(s) make it look fairly unlikely to go that way. The main risk for Osborne is that the campaign is nasty and full of controversial promises which may not be delivered, leaving a "we wuz robbed" mood, akin to the SNP after losing the referendum. In that case, might members take revenge by voting for a sceptic?

Do we think Boris will recommend In? Electorally he may be best off becoming the most prominent Outer, and little in his career suggests a dedication to unchanging beliefs that would overcome his wanting to be PM.

RobD

JackW said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

Tis time for the latest JackW black spot to be officially presented :

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury.

JCWNBFLOTT.
Rolls of the tongue.

I await :

JCICIFLOTT

Surely you mean JCICIPCIFLOTT? (Jeremy Corbyn Is Crap Is Privy Counsellor Is First Lord of the Treasury).

Ok, enough

HYUFD

Osborne still has a higher favourable and net favourable rating than Corbyn and Boris has an even higher rating than Cameron. If Corbyn were still leader in 2020 I think Cameron would stay on anyway to see him off

CarlottaVance

It depends to an extent on how strongly Cameron campaigns in the GE - and whether his successor wants him to - with Osborne as Continuity Cameron I suspect we'll see a lot of him, with Boris, probably less so. Though I don't think Osborne has decided to run "GREAT CoE" may be a better place in history than "failed PM" - ask Gordon.

The Sturgeon numbers are interesting- and presumably even worse with Scotland (where her ratings remain very good) removed. That would make 2020 coalition negotiations interesting - a -18 allying with a -19 (or worse, in England)

Philip_Thompson

Being a Chancellor who is having to eliminate an inherited £150bn deficit is never going to be a popular task for anyone, the fact that his net ratings aren't even worse is a relative positive for Osborne.

TOPPING

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

HYUFD

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Jonathan

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Tories need to remember that while 37% was enough to win the election, even with Cameron its still a long way from being popular.

At present, flattered by FPTP like Labour in 2005, they are displaying signs of hubris.

Cyclefree

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

Plato_Says

The Amazing Automatic Jeremy Corbyn Speech Generator
Can't be bothered to watch another Jeremy Corbyn speech? Fear not: here's everything he might ever say http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11896822/Roll-up-roll-up-and-take-a-spin-on-the-Amazing-Automatic-Jeremy-Corbyn-Speech-Generator.html

RobD

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Tories need to remember that while 37% was enough to win the election, even with Cameron its still a long way from being popular.

At present, flattered by FPTP like Labour in 2005, they are displaying signs of hubris.

Flattered by FPTP? Just wait for the boundaries changes

richardDodd

J.. Hubris...where exactly...

Recidivist

Philip_Thompson said:

Being a Chancellor who is having to eliminate an inherited £150bn deficit is never going to be a popular task for anyone, the fact that his net ratings aren't even worse is a relative positive for Osborne.

That would be an excellent point had he actually reduced the deficit. As it is the Tories have been giving out sweets like an amiable uncle at Christmas. They have even been offering subsidised savings products to the retired. One might wonder why this profligacy hasn't bought a few more friends.

AlastairMeeks

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

HYUFD

The Times also reports party sources have said that if 20% of MPs endorse an alternative leader Corbyn would need 15% of MPs to get on a new ballot

RobD

richardDodd said:

J.. Hubris...where exactly...

Something about a PB Tory thousand year reich... oh wait, that wasn't us!

RobD

antifrank said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

Is your other half called Frank, hence your name? Have always wondered what it meant.

AlastairMeeks

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Tories need to remember that while 37% was enough to win the election, even with Cameron its still a long way from being popular.

At present, flattered by FPTP like Labour in 2005, they are displaying signs of hubris.

I'd differentiate between Tory supporters and Tory strategists. George Osborne in particular is showing no complacency.

Tory supporters, I agree, are overconfident.

TOPPING

Corbyn, sadly for him and his supporters, is finding out the grim, grinding, boring reality of politics in the UK.

Even Polly (although of course she is saying it is a good thing) admits there have been no fireworks. But of course fireworks are exactly what his £3-ers want.

And he, and McConnell (Shadow Chancellor in not raving bonkers trotskyist shock) are having to play normal politics. Which they are woefully ill-prepared for.

It's all very well answering "what have you got?", in response to the question: "what are you rebelling against?" But only if you are MP for Islington North. Not if you are LotO.

Plus his "more in sorrow than anger, look I'm a pretty straight-talking kind of guy" schtick will wear off pretty soon, if it hasn't already, for his supporters, his opponents and his enemies. In fact, his "on the one hand...on the other hand..." faux reasonableness is likely to be perceived as a weakness by all.

Scrapheap_as_was

Jeremy Corbyn will today give his first speech as party leader at the Labour Party Conference 2015.


Infinite monkeys with infinite typewriters couldn't have come up with that sentence.

AlastairMeeks

RobD said:

antifrank said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

Is your other half called Frank, hence your name? Have always wondered what it meant.

It's a nonsense name, vaguely career-related.

I may well switch to my real name in the near future. Everyone who wants to knows it now anyway.

HYUFD

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

RobD

antifrank said:

RobD said:

antifrank said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

Is your other half called Frank, hence your name? Have always wondered what it meant.

It's a nonsense name, vaguely career-related.

I may well switch to my real name in the near future. Everyone who wants to knows it now anyway.

So your real name will be the most opposite name to Frank as there can be? I look forward to the big reveal

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

It's a good example of an unintentionally leading question, I suspect. People will be subconsciously more reluctant to give big negative numbers than big positive numbers because negative is bad and positive is good, I'd wager.

RobD

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Jeremy Corbyn will today give his first speech as party leader at the Labour Party Conference 2015.


Infinite monkeys with infinite typewriters couldn't have come up with that sentence.

I think they would, at a probability of 2^260199 to one against.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

It's true the next blue leader's got some problems to deal with, but some advantages too. Both Major and Brown benefited from being someone new [to the top job].

A lot depends on whether Chairman Corbyn is still leading the People's Socialist Workers Party.

Plato_Says

Dan has his 2p http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11897131/Who-will-dare-to-confront-Corbyns-Children.html

...The general election has virtually ceased to exist as a point of political reference. So has the wider electorate. What do the members think? What do the members think of the MPs? What do the members think about what the MP’s think? As far as the average representative of the parliamentary Labour party is concerned, there is nothing out beyond the corn.

And who can blame them? How is any Labour MP meant to challenge the supremacy of the 150,000? Labour is now a pluralistic party. An open and democratic party. A party whose members have a real say in its policy development and broader political direction.

Or that is the current mantra being chanted from every corner of the Brighton Center. And who can stand against that? Who dares say they are not for democracy and pluralism? But of course this is not democracy. It’s the tyranny of the majority. Or the tyranny of the minority masquerading as the majority.

chestnut

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Tories need to remember that while 37% was enough to win the election, even with Cameron its still a long way from being popular.

At present, flattered by FPTP like Labour in 2005, they are displaying signs of hubris.

Labour would do well to remember that only four party leaders have secured 35% of the UK vote in forty years - Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron.

Three are Tories and the other one seems to have acquired the status.

HYUFD

antifrank said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

It's a good example of an unintentionally leading question, I suspect. People will be subconsciously more reluctant to give big negative numbers than big positive numbers because negative is bad and positive is good, I'd wager.

Brown and Ed Miliband were both far closer to the centre when yougov did it with them Howard well to the right and Blair and Clegg dead centre

RobD

antifrank said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

It's a good example of an unintentionally leading question, I suspect. People will be subconsciously more reluctant to give big negative numbers than big positive numbers because negative is bad and positive is good, I'd wager.

Were they asked to rate on a scale of -100 to 100, or 0-100 (left) or 0-100 (right). I'd agree that it would be a leading question by asking the former.

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

antifrank said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

It's a good example of an unintentionally leading question, I suspect. People will be subconsciously more reluctant to give big negative numbers than big positive numbers because negative is bad and positive is good, I'd wager.

Brown and Ed Miliband were both far closer to the centre when yougov did it with them Howard well to the right and Blair and Clegg dead centre

Relative positions on the same side are more use than comparisons of the different sides.

Gadfly

RobD said:

antifrank said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

Is your other half called Frank, hence your name?

That is what I always imagined too, although it appears that we were wrong in our assumptions.

SouthamObserver

Genuinely interested to see how Corbyn frames his love for this country. Presumably he does not count the Northern Irish bit.

Love of country is a strange thing. I am not sure what it actually means. I am proud to be British, I feel a kinship with other British people (though, being honest, with some more deeply than others) and I love the physical country in that I think it is beautiful, varied and linked inextricably to all that has come before. But an emotional love of an abstract thing, that's intriguing. How will he frame it?

If pushed, I guess that I would say I feel a deep attachment to this place because it is where I come from and there are parts of it and people within it that I genuinely do love. But that is to do with me and my experiences, rather than anything abstract.

Thinking out loud really.

It's complicated.

Scrapheap_as_was

RobD said:

antifrank said:

RobD said:

antifrank said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

My other half's reaction: "if you love this country then sing the **** national anthem". I doubt he will have been alone in thinking that.

Is your other half called Frank, hence your name? Have always wondered what it meant.

It's a nonsense name, vaguely career-related.

I may well switch to my real name in the near future. Everyone who wants to knows it now anyway.

So your real name will be the most opposite name to Frank as there can be? I look forward to the big reveal

got it.

Mr. Pitney Bowes?

Plato_Says

I do love the contrast at #Lab15 - Corbyn is going to be all Mr Kinder Politics, whilst his backer Len talks about Tory law reforms = sending people into gas chambers.

Scott_P

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

Scott_P

@paulhutcheon: 1. Fiona Hyslop: there are "limitations" in using State Aid for T in the Park

2. SNP Gov gives State Aid to TiTP http://t.co/jn1x708NL2

Scrapheap_as_was

Labour strap line 2015 - Straight Talking Honest Politics

2016 suggestions?

"there is none so blind as one who will not see"

MarqueeMark

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Jeremy Corbyn will today give his first speech as party leader at the Labour Party Conference 2015.


Infinite monkeys with infinite typewriters couldn't have come up with that sentence.

I think they would, at a probability of 2^260199 to one against.

Put me down for a pound....

RobD

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

Wow. Is that level of redaction common for government papers?

Plato_Says

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11897693/Conflict-and-revolution-at-Labour-Party-Conference.html

Visiting the souvenir stalls is one of the joys of party conference season. At Ukip conference in Doncaster, you could find Ukip teddy bears (£25), Ukip necklaces (£12), and even the knitting pattern for a Ukip jumper (£5). In Bournemouth, meanwhile, the Lib Dems were selling mugs decorated with the face of former Scotland Secretary Alistair Carmichael (the perfect gift for the Cybernat in your life).

But what will you find at this year’s Labour conference – Jeremy Corbyn’s first as leader? Disappointingly, they weren’t selling my all-time favourite conference souvenir, spotted at Labour conference in Manchester three years ago: a tea towel emblazoned with the faces of Marx and Lenin.

Nonetheless, I did find a fine range of anti-Tory merchandise, numerous souvenirs celebrating the life and work of Che Guevara – and the Palestine Solidarity Group protesting against the conference’s own security team.

John_M

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Jeremy Corbyn will today give his first speech as party leader at the Labour Party Conference 2015.


Infinite monkeys with infinite typewriters couldn't have come up with that sentence.

I think they would, at a probability of 2^260199 to one against.

Put me down for a pound....

Let me just contact the Governor of the Bank of England to issue a special bank note with 70,000 zeros, in case you win. This note may not be redeemable for good/services.

Scott_P

RobD said:

Wow. Is that level of redaction common for government papers?

I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you...

Scott_P

@HTScotPol: Remarkable. SNP MSP @GeorgeAdam tells #bbcgms T in the Park deal all above board before he even questions @FionaHyslop on it at cttee

@DrScottThinks: BBC Scotland Now: SNP member of the committee that will "question" @FionaHyslop on the T in the Park bung is DEFENDING her.
Accountability?

SquareRoot

All you will hear preached at the Labour Conference is:the new Labour acronym.-

Straight Honest Intelligent Thinking

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

RobD

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

malcolmg

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

Wow. Is that level of redaction common for government papers?

Rob, as ever with Scott's merde, it is a small sample from over 600 pages. These have commercial data on them, perfectly normal.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. M, any patriotic talk would immediately be juxtaposed with Corbyn's reluctance to sing the national anthem (and, to a lesser extent, attend the opening of a major international sporting event in the UK).

Edited extra bit: and his desire to axe the royal family.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

Wow. Is that level of redaction common for government papers?

Rob, as ever with Scott's merde, it is a small sample from over 600 pages. These have commercial data on them, perfectly normal.

Ah, but it looks like the first few pages, given the title on page 1.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@HTScotPol: Remarkable. SNP MSP @GeorgeAdam tells #bbcgms T in the Park deal all above board before he even questions @FionaHyslop on it at cttee

@DrScottThinks: BBC Scotland Now: SNP member of the committee that will "question" @FionaHyslop on the T in the Park bung is DEFENDING her.
Accountability?

What is the full membership of the committee? I hope the non-SNP members are pulling their weight.

Scott_P

The full 600 pages are here if anyone cares to look

http://www.gov.scot/About/People/Directorates/BusinessDirectorate/foireleased

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

which will contain financial details that are commercially sensitive and they will not wish the toerags on the committee to be in possession of them. These are donkeys of the first order, you would not want your business details to be in their hands.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

which will contain financial details that are commercially sensitive and they will not wish the toerags on the committee to be in possession of them. These are donkeys of the first order, you would not want your business details to be in their hands.

How can you tell, it has been so redacted there isn't even any context. I like to think it contains advice on how to get a larger mortgage than your property is worth, and the Scottish government deemed that so sensitive that it had to be redacted.

HYUFD

antifrank said:

HYUFD said:

antifrank said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

The Times reports yougov today has the public placing Corbyn at -80 on a left to right scale more extreme than Cameron on +53 and even Farage on +62

Left is negative; right is positive; the Times is a newspaper of record.

Left is -100 right is +100 but if you say so

It's a good example of an unintentionally leading question, I suspect. People will be subconsciously more reluctant to give big negative numbers than big positive numbers because negative is bad and positive is good, I'd wager.

Brown and Ed Miliband were both far closer to the centre when yougov did it with them Howard well to the right and Blair and Clegg dead centre

Relative positions on the same side are more use than comparisons of the different sides.

Nonetheless this poll has been done for the last ten years and Labour has gone from Blair, placed dead centre or a fraction right, to the most extreme leader of all Corbyn is even further from the centre than Farage

richardDodd

They could have saved a lot of black ink if they had just sent blank pages..

GIN1138

George Osborne will be very unpopular and will lead the Tories back to opposition...

But for 2020 Labour will be more unpopular so the Conservatives will have a third (and final) term in power.

Lab back 2025.

malcolmg

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@HTScotPol: Remarkable. SNP MSP @GeorgeAdam tells #bbcgms T in the Park deal all above board before he even questions @FionaHyslop on it at cttee

@DrScottThinks: BBC Scotland Now: SNP member of the committee that will "question" @FionaHyslop on the T in the Park bung is DEFENDING her.
Accountability?

What is the full membership of the committee? I hope the non-SNP members are pulling their weight.

LOL, all they have is weight, Labour and Tories in Scotland are pitiful. You know how this will end , they will look like idiots once again.

Plato_Says

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Some extracts have been released in advance. Here’s Patrick Wintour’s preview story, and here’s how it starts.

Jeremy Corbyn will tell the Labour party conference that he loves his country, shares British majority values and wants to forge a gentler politics in society. In his first conference speech as party leader, Corbyn will say on Tuesday he was elected to lead Labour because he offered a kinder politics and a more caring society.

He will say: “It is because I am driven by these British majority values, because I love this country, that I want to rid it of injustice to make it more fair, more decent, more equal.” He will also try to challenge preconceptions by promising to become the champion of the self-employed, suggesting they should have full access to statutory maternity and paternity pay. He will say all too often the current welfare state does not act as a safety net for the growing numbers classified as self-employed.

Corbyn’s avowal of his love for his country will be seen as a riposte to criticisms following his decision not to sing the national anthem at the Battle of Britain commemoration ceremony.

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@HTScotPol: Remarkable. SNP MSP @GeorgeAdam tells #bbcgms T in the Park deal all above board before he even questions @FionaHyslop on it at cttee

@DrScottThinks: BBC Scotland Now: SNP member of the committee that will "question" @FionaHyslop on the T in the Park bung is DEFENDING her.
Accountability?

What is the full membership of the committee? I hope the non-SNP members are pulling their weight.

LOL, all they have is weight, Labour and Tories in Scotland are pitiful. You know how this will end , they will look like idiots once again.

You sound gleeful in the idea of a one party state.

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

which will contain financial details that are commercially sensitive and they will not wish the toerags on the committee to be in possession of them. These are donkeys of the first order, you would not want your business details to be in their hands.

How can you tell, it has been so redacted there isn't even any context. I like to think it contains advice on how to get a larger mortgage than your property is worth, and the Scottish government deemed that so sensitive that it had to be redacted.

So you do not even know the topic that they are discussing then, it has nothing whatsoever to do with mortgages. I thought you were smart but appears that you are just like Scott, is it a Tory trait to just spout merde rather than actually understand what is being discussed.

rottenborough

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

Morning all,

Yes, Jez speech will be worth watching. I'm not so sure though that in general Tories should be so confident about things. Some of what McDonnell has been saying may be popular. I particularly think the tax credit reduction is a massive unforced error by Cons. We'll see.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

The full 600 pages are here if anyone cares to look

http://www.gov.scot/About/People/Directorates/BusinessDirectorate/foireleased

Assume you have looked at the over 600 pages worth then

PS: sure you will have done and formed a balanced view on the topic overall, you Tory donkeys are famous for that.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

which will contain financial details that are commercially sensitive and they will not wish the toerags on the committee to be in possession of them. These are donkeys of the first order, you would not want your business details to be in their hands.

How can you tell, it has been so redacted there isn't even any context. I like to think it contains advice on how to get a larger mortgage than your property is worth, and the Scottish government deemed that so sensitive that it had to be redacted.

So you do not even know the topic that they are discussing then, it has nothing whatsoever to do with mortgages. I thought you were smart but appears that you are just like Scott, is it a Tory trait to just spout merde rather than actually understand what is being discussed.

Yes, we are both guessing the content since 99% of the words on the page were blacked out

Plato_Says

Lucy Powell does it again

She sidestepped a question about whether she thought Corbyn would lead Labour to victory at the next election. Asked about this, she said:

He’s just been elected leader of the Labour Party, so I’m really not in the business of speculating how long he will last and how successful he will be. I wish he will be successful.

JohnLilburne

Plato_Says said:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Some extracts have been released in advance. Here’s Patrick Wintour’s preview story, and here’s how it starts.

Jeremy Corbyn will tell the Labour party conference that he loves his country, shares British majority values and wants to forge a gentler politics in society. In his first conference speech as party leader, Corbyn will say on Tuesday he was elected to lead Labour because he offered a kinder politics and a more caring society.

He will say: “It is because I am driven by these British majority values, because I love this country, that I want to rid it of injustice to make it more fair, more decent, more equal.” He will also try to challenge preconceptions by promising to become the champion of the self-employed, suggesting they should have full access to statutory maternity and paternity pay. He will say all too often the current welfare state does not act as a safety net for the growing numbers classified as self-employed.

Corbyn’s avowal of his love for his country will be seen as a riposte to criticisms following his decision not to sing the national anthem at the Battle of Britain commemoration ceremony.

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

Sounds like horseshit to me. I am interested in finding out what "values" he is imputing to the "majority". I am sure his ideas on equality and fairness are quite different to mine, for example.

Although his views on the self-employed are interesting. A former colleague who was a Labour party constituency chairman once commented that in France the shopkeeper and tradesman were treated as workers and supported the Socialist party, here they are seen as businessmen and Labour ignores them.

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@HTScotPol: Remarkable. SNP MSP @GeorgeAdam tells #bbcgms T in the Park deal all above board before he even questions @FionaHyslop on it at cttee

@DrScottThinks: BBC Scotland Now: SNP member of the committee that will "question" @FionaHyslop on the T in the Park bung is DEFENDING her.
Accountability?

What is the full membership of the committee? I hope the non-SNP members are pulling their weight.

LOL, all they have is weight, Labour and Tories in Scotland are pitiful. You know how this will end , they will look like idiots once again.

You sound gleeful in the idea of a one party state.

Just like England, reality cannot be ignored, if the opposition is crap it is not the party in powers problem. If you had actually looked at the topic and checked the papers you would see most are not redacted and most that are are marked as Government Sensitive Material. What I don't like is lying toerags like Scott feeding the gullible halfwits on here. They have an excuse but he is supposedly Scottish and supposedly lives here , yet he does everything he can to denigrate Scotland. A real sicko.
Why did you not just say you had not even looked at the topic and were just having fun poking at it rather than pretend.

Plato_Says

Is there much left of Corbynism? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11898076/Jeremy-Corbyn-backtracks-on-abolishing-free-schools.html

Labour will not abolish free schools under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in what marks another significant backtracking for the new leader.

Mr Corbyn had described free schools and academies as "unaccountable" during his bid to become leader. It had been suggested that he could return them all under the control of local authorities.

Now, after a series of backtracking announcements in his first two weeks as leader, Mr Corbyn will no longer seek a takeover of the schools.

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Today might be a good day for the SNP to bury Michelle Thomson bad news...

twitter.com/htscotpol/status/648625089269891072

well selected from the 600+ pages......... cuckoo, if only the Tories and Labour had any politicians in Scotland , their donkeys keep braying but do little to further their political aims.

It looks like the first few pages, given the bold face title at the top.

which will contain financial details that are commercially sensitive and they will not wish the toerags on the committee to be in possession of them. These are donkeys of the first order, you would not want your business details to be in their hands.

How can you tell, it has been so redacted there isn't even any context. I like to think it contains advice on how to get a larger mortgage than your property is worth, and the Scottish government deemed that so sensitive that it had to be redacted.

So you do not even know the topic that they are discussing then, it has nothing whatsoever to do with mortgages. I thought you were smart but appears that you are just like Scott, is it a Tory trait to just spout merde rather than actually understand what is being discussed.

Yes, we are both guessing the content since 99% of the words on the page were blacked out

Unlike you I have read a fair bit on it and it is in regard to a music festival , there are over 600 pages , most of which are not redacted. Sensitive Government and the company financial information has been redacted as is normal.

Plato_Says

There was a debate on FPT about Dan Jarvis and whether being a Services man would be a vote winner with the selectorate - well according to Ms Sylvester the The Labour Friends of the Forces stall has been abandoned.

The one next door campaigning for banning fur sales is buzzing. Oh and the free conference magazine has a cartoon of Corbyn rising phoenix like from the burning corpse of Tony Blair. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4570406.ece

alex.

Any word on whether Corbyn is going to come on to a background theme song? "Imagine" would be the obvious choice.

runnymede

'Labour Friends of the Forces'

Friends of the Argentine and Irish Republican Forces seem prominent enough - what's the problem?

malcolmg

Plato_Says said:

There was a debate on FPT about Dan Jarvis and whether being a Services man would be a vote winner with the selectorate - well according to Ms Sylvester the The Labour Friends of the Forces stall has been abandoned.

The one next door campaigning for banning fur sales is buzzing. Oh and the free conference magazine has a cartoon of Corbyn rising phoenix like from the burning corpse of Tony Blair. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4570406.ece

Nobody gives a monkeys chuff if someone has been in the Services. It is a career choice and nothing else, does not make them special. Just means they are happy to be told what to do and when to do it.

TOPPING

Plato_Says said:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Some extracts have been released in advance. Here’s Patrick Wintour’s preview story, and here’s how it starts.

Edit: snipped

He will say: “It is because I am driven by these British majority values, because I love this country, that I want to rid it of injustice to make it more fair, more decent, more equal.”

Corbyn’s avowal of his love for his country will be seen as a riposte to criticisms following his decision not to sing the national anthem at the Battle of Britain commemoration ceremony.

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

So a Lab LotO at his first conference finds it necessary to affirm the love he has for his country.

Le Roi est mort...vive le Roi...

Yes - it's a bit like someone having to protest their honesty. If they have to keep doing it, then you know they're not.

When I look at England I feel...respect.

Good morning all. I shall await the ramblings of the Dear Leader with bated breath.

Obviously the phrase "British majority values" has been chosen quite carefully.

I'm sure it means he doesn't share the values of the far right or the, um, loony left. But many will be scratching their heads trying to work out what on earth it does mean. And what values of which minority he is excluding.

He has even managed to turn something relatively simple (if nebulous, admittedly) into a trap for himself.

NickPalmer

Plato_Says said:

There was a debate on FPT about Dan Jarvis and whether being a Services man would be a vote winner with the selectorate - well according to Ms Sylvester the The Labour Friends of the Forces stall has been abandoned.

The one next door campaigning for banning fur sales is buzzing. Oh and the free conference magazine has a cartoon of Corbyn rising phoenix like from the burning corpse of Tony Blair. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4570406.ece

Sorry, but this is bollocks. There is no stand on the fur trade - the campaign that supports an end to it is not exhibiting this year, though there's a general Labour Animal Welfare Society stand. The Friends of the Forces stand is two away from the animal welfare stand that I'm running, and it's manned most of the time, next to Labour Friends of Israel, which is also flourishing (as is Labour Friends of Palestine round the corner).

Basically trying to judge party conferences by the exhibitors is a mug's game - there's also a stand selling posh cufflinks (though I've not seen Jeremy investing), and the Countryside Alliance has not one but two fringe events. If we wanted to fork out a few hundred quid, Politicallbetting could have a stand too next year - which might be an amusing idea (I expect that Laddies would sponsor it).

JEO

antifrank said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

The Conservatives could elect the resurrected corpse of Margaret Thatcher and she'd still be less unpopular than Corbyn will be come the election.

In any case, Cameron's favourability ratings aren't greatly ahead of his colleagues. He's behind Boris (though I think Boris' ratings would drop were he thought of in the context as a possible PM rather than London mayor), and only 10% ahead of Osborne - and it probably won't be Osborne.

Tories need to remember that while 37% was enough to win the election, even with Cameron its still a long way from being popular.

At present, flattered by FPTP like Labour in 2005, they are displaying signs of hubris.

I'd differentiate between Tory supporters and Tory strategists. George Osborne in particular is showing no complacency.

Tory supporters, I agree, are overconfident.

If we can win half the UKIP vote back we could be in the mid 40s. If the leadership splits the party by pretending a few scraps is a good EU negotiation then we could hit the mid 20s.

I'm increasingly feeling Cameron should recommend an out if he can't get a good deal. It would look politically bold and honest in the new politics, and would mean his legacy would be as a winner. There's a big danger he will go down as the loser who couldn't keep us in, or as seen by the party as the man that sold us out to Brussels based on lies.

DavidL

On topic I think that Cameron has been consistently underestimated as a leader, as a campaigner and as a PM. It is inevitable that the Tory appeal will be diminished without him.

A Labour party offering a serious choice and a credible platform would have had an excellent chance in 2020. The economy will simply not perform with the consistency that it did in 2010-2015. The road is going to get bumpier and this will diminish Osborne's standing along with the government's lead in competence (or at least it would all other things being equal).

But Labour have not chosen this path. They have chosen Corbyn and McDonnell. This means, Major like, pretty much any of the top Tories will lead them to a modest and slightly unenthusiastic victory in 2020. In fact, on reflection, that analogy is very unfair to Neil Kinnock. Whether Labour can then recover for 2025 depends upon the ability of their membership to learn painful but necessary lessons.

richardDodd

Re The Army and being told what to do..Deep field forces are not told what to do.. they act upon their own intelligence and decide what is the best way to achieve an objective..just what an MP should be doing..

TOPPING

richardDodd said:

Re The Army and being told what to do..Deep field forces are not told what to do.. they act upon their own intelligence and decide what is the best way to achieve an objective..just what an MP should be doing..

who sets the objective?

Scott_P

It does look like the word has gone out from Zoomer central

Michelle is on her own, it's all hands to the pumps to try and save Fiona...

Unlucky

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

NickPalmer said:

Plato_Says said:

There was a debate on FPT about Dan Jarvis and whether being a Services man would be a vote winner with the selectorate - well according to Ms Sylvester the The Labour Friends of the Forces stall has been abandoned.

The one next door campaigning for banning fur sales is buzzing. Oh and the free conference magazine has a cartoon of Corbyn rising phoenix like from the burning corpse of Tony Blair. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4570406.ece

If we wanted to fork out a few hundred quid, Politicallbetting could have a stand too next year - which might be an amusing idea (I expect that Laddies would sponsor it).

Yes, that sounds quite a laugh.

Scott_P

malcolmg said:

he does everything he can to denigrate Scotland.

I have never denigrated Scotland

The SNP (which is NOT SCOTLAND) are fair game

Scott_P

@faisalislam: Confirmed: @jeremycorbyn will mention Iraq in his speech but not today issue an apology for the Iraq War promised in his campaign...

The New Politics in action

blackburn63

As a self employed person I'm interested to hear Corbyn's plans but reserve the right to say they are total bollox. The maternity/paternity pay thing, for example, is totally unworkable, an administrative nightmare.

DecrepitJohnL

It is interesting because you could imagine both sentiments at the Conservative conference or even across the Atlantic. One has echoes of George Bush snr's kinder, gentler America.

The other is something George Osborne might well pinch/borrow/invent, though he'd more likely frame it in terms of putting a cushion under entrepreneurs, thus encouraging more people to start new businesses.

Plato_Says said:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/29/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyns-speech-politics-live

Some extracts have been released in advance. Here’s Patrick Wintour’s preview story, and here’s how it starts.

Jeremy Corbyn will tell the Labour party conference that he loves his country, shares British majority values and wants to forge a gentler politics in society. In his first conference speech as party leader, Corbyn will say on Tuesday he was elected to lead Labour because he offered a kinder politics and a more caring society.

He will say: “It is because I am driven by these British majority values, because I love this country, that I want to rid it of injustice to make it more fair, more decent, more equal.” He will also try to challenge preconceptions by promising to become the champion of the self-employed, suggesting they should have full access to statutory maternity and paternity pay. He will say all too often the current welfare state does not act as a safety net for the growing numbers classified as self-employed.

Corbyn’s avowal of his love for his country will be seen as a riposte to criticisms following his decision not to sing the national anthem at the Battle of Britain commemoration ceremony.

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

They have an excuse but he is supposedly Scottish and supposedly lives here , yet he does everything he can to denigrate Scotland.

I believe Mr P is a migrant. Perhaps he can confirm?

ReggieCide

Is JC about to have a Captain Sensible moment?

Happy talk, keep talking happy talk,
Talk about things you'd like to do,
You gotta have a dream, if you don't have a dream,
How you gonna have a dream come true?

In truth I think CS is miles more sincere than JC

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x15p6i_captain-sensible-happy-talk_music

watford30

richardDodd said:

Re The Army and being told what to do..Deep field forces are not told what to do.. they act upon their own intelligence and decide what is the best way to achieve an objective..just what an MP should be doing..

malcolm's frame of reference, are the actions of his fellow obsequious Nat foot soldiers, blindly plodding along behind their one true leader.