politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in
Comments
-
In all likelihood, every case is a deserving case, in one way or another. Sooner or later, someone is going to have to say things that will sound (and be) lacking in compassion for the would-be entrants, because to allow them in will be lacking in compassion for those who are already here.foxinsoxuk said:
I have no easy answers, because there are none.
It is perfectly true that the poorest of the people already here are vastly wealthy compared to the destitute in other lands. But it is the poorest of the people here already who will suffer first & suffer most as more & more poor people from abroad are added to their number.
For example, when food/clothing collections were organised here, many people donated. But only a few weeks previously, when a similar appeal was made for local homeless people, very little was forthcoming.
So there was all this stuff stacked up waiting to go to Calais when people literally on our doorstep were in urgent need of it.0 -
At a time when unemployment was rocketing, the economy was in recession and the Tories were led by Thatcher, a far more rightwing leader than Cameron. Unlike 1980 the economy is now growing. By February 1982 those stats show the Tories were already back in the lead, 2 months before Argentina invaded the Falklands. IDS is a better comparison for Labour than FootAndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
Remember that EdM became MORE crap the longer he was Labour leader.glw said:
It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.kle4 said:Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
His high point was showing some guts and initative in beating his brother.
He then morphed into the worst parts of his brother - the cowardice and complacency.
0 -
stupid example. The muderers were tried and sent to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings0 -
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.0 -
And in many ways Ed did improve enormously. He had some good runs. His public speaking became much much better, his early attempts to master NLP was bad as to be laughable. Like watching a learner driver trying to change gears but not knowing how to use the clutch properly.glw said:
It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.kle4 said:Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
I did notice that Jezza has been getting some serious toastmaster speech training. You can see his use of techniques. The content was drivel, just the left wing version of "we'll fight them on the beaches" designed to motivate the morons, but he delivered it surprisingly well. I dont think I've seen him speak that well in public.
Tom Watson though was just a tub of lard. 0/10 for grace, 0/10 for content.0 -
How is Corbyn going to persuade the public that he is a moderate, reasonable politician when after three months of campaigning he can't even persuade his own Labour parliamentary colleagues?0
-
Our loyal Armed forces and the RUC did. In fact, in some cases, the RUS and Loyalists were interchangeable.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
None of which seems germane to the discussion anyway. I still don't understand what point you were attempting to make Sunil? Corbyn and McDonnell are closely associated at a personal level with supporters of Physical Force Republicanism, in a way that mainstream politicans (in Labour, Tories, LibDems, SNP...) simply aren't with either Republicans or their Loyalist equivalents. Both Labour and the Tories would be prepared to court the NI Unionists as part of a Rainbow/Unionist coalition, if electorally required. But Paisley and Robinson and Trimble and Nesbitt are neither now nor historically tied to the various Loyalist paramilitary groups.Alanbrooke said:
They also colluded with the IRA at certain levels.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
(I'll grant you that some pretty grubby details could come out at some point should details of UK government involvement with paramilitaries be declassified, but what does that have to do with the price of fish? And more particularly, public reaction to the price of fish?)0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenanne_gangAlanbrooke said:
stupid example. The muderers were tried and sent to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings0 -
You do know what an opinion poll is?William_H said:The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.
The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.
The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.0 -
Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.0 -
'Loyalists' is the giveaway, Sunil. They may not have done nice things, but they do associate with being British.Sunil_Prasannan said:Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
Corbyn stinks to high heaven among Mr and Mrs Ordinary.
My other half and her daughter expressed incredulation that Corbyn had won - they were lifelong Labour voters until 2010. Lifelong, 2015 Labour voter friends (Ilford North voters) have already drawn the line at Corbyn
My extended in laws, Labour voters since Jesus was a twinkle in his mother's eye, think Corbyn is a Tory stitch up.
Add a Muslim Mayor on offer as well?
Labour have taken every wrong turn possible.
0 -
Pathetic even by your own low standards. When your stuck for a sensible answer, it's better just to shut up, rather than look as much of a fool as you just have.JWisemann said:
Why are the Tories trying to solve today's issues with solutions from 135 years ago?saddened said:
So why is Jez, trying to solve today's issues with solutions from thirty five years ago?JWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
I imagine he'll fine enough of the parliamentary colleagues who will tell us he is moderate and reasonable. Unity and loyalty after all.JEO said:How is Corbyn going to persuade the public that he is a moderate, reasonable politician when after three months of campaigning he can't even persuade his own Labour parliamentary colleagues?
0 -
Your miserable feking point being? I remember watching the News the day when the British Army came out of barracks in NI - to protect the Catholics. Despite what you would like to pretend in another post the Govt and the tory party did not collude in or support or encourage Loyalist murderers. There is not a sheet of paper long enough to list the terrorists Corbyn has apologised for.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
As I recall the joke was:another_richard said:For any PBers too young to know but curious as to what the 1970s was really like after the Corbyn / Watson nostalgiafest may I suggest you watch the new BBC comedy 'Cradle to Grave'.
And then add in strikes, power cuts and general crapness.
What do you do if your nose goes on strike ?
Picket / pick it.
Coming in 2020 if Labour gets its way.
'If the Tories get up your nose, picket!'0 -
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
3% more than the Warmonger himself !Sunil_Prasannan said:Who cares? Corbyn = 59.5%
0 -
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.
0 -
You rather miss the point they went to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenanne_gangAlanbrooke said:
stupid example. The muderers were tried and sent to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings
Unlike Mr Stakekife0 -
Well exactly, has any party leader ever started off with as little parliamentary support? Most of Corbyn's fellow Labour MPs must think he's a crank, and are likely to be bitterly regretting his nomination..JEO said:How is Corbyn going to persuade the public that he is a moderate, reasonable politician when after three months of campaigning he can't even persuade his own Labour parliamentary colleagues?
0 -
Did I mention Pat Finucane?Alanbrooke said:
You rather miss the point they went to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenanne_gangAlanbrooke said:
stupid example. The muderers were tried and sent to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings
Unlike Mr Stakekife0 -
I hadn't heard that. That's truly frightening - sharia law and enforced feminism - that's revolutionaryJWisemann said:How is less people than voted Tory in the last election saying they think Corbyn is unfit to be PM a big thing when we've been told he will simultaneously enforce mandatory feminism, state-sponsored gayness and sharia law and put armed forces funding into scientific research to resurrect the prophet Muhammad and Saddam Hussein.
0 -
Some are looking for lucrative Directorships. They will be disappointed. Even the *ankers won't take them.Sunil_Prasannan said:I love my Mum!
She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!"
0 -
What odds of Prescott or some other dinosaurs having to be dragged out of the woodwork in order to fill up places in the Shadow Cabinet? Two Jags seems to have been on TV much more often than usual during this campaign, or maybe he only appeared once and it's just me having a recurring nightmare.0
-
Yes, you have special powers of being able to read all of our BME minds!another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.0 -
Bloody hell- the BBC pre MoD news- not very pretty for Jezza on his first day. I cannot think of any other occasion when the BEEB have gone after a party leader in quite such a vicious way.
If I was a conspiracy, paranoid theorist I would suspect that the higher management of the BEEB have a political agenda........0 -
I now understand where Idi Amin was coming from.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did I mention Pat Finucane?Alanbrooke said:
You rather miss the point they went to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenanne_gangAlanbrooke said:
stupid example. The muderers were tried and sent to jail.Sunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings
Unlike Mr Stakekife0 -
Anyone that supports Labour under Corbyn is supporting a party that endorses sharing a platform with Islamists and handing over British territory over the heads of the British people that live there. I have been told by many over the years that it is a right wing myth that Labour dislikes Britain, but they are clearly prepared to elect an anti-British ideologue as leader.SeanT said:
What's your opinion on Corbyn? Will you loyally follow and support him?Jonathan said:Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.0 -
Any message there ?SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.0 -
There will I guess be two London by elections on the same day in due course. Presumably these will be used by both sides to set the scene for the Mayoral election.surbiton said:
We need to record this one ! Also, Goldsmith will get 75% of the votes in Kingston !AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
0 -
In what way is this going to make Corbyn any more palatable to the British people?Sunil_Prasannan said:
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I think most Brits will deny there was collusion, either because they are unaware of the allegations (about Nairac or Stakeknife or whoever) or because they don't believe them.
When John McDonnell praised the "bravery and sacrifice" of the IRA ("It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA.") Labour did their best to shut him up because they knew it was bad news electorally. When Jeremy Corbyn has such close personal ties to the leadership of Sinn Fein, it is hardly going to make him more popular.
If he tried to justify it by getting into a tit-for-tat argument about who did what and who knew about it, decades ago, it would just be digging a deeper hole for himself.0 -
I feel inclined to accept what you say since you are clearly an expert on insanityJWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
Yup. Don't forget the flag-bearer received 4.5% of the votes !saddened said:0 -
Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland -poll Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) Changes since July
Poll finds 55% of voters as a whole do not want another referendum in the next 5 years while 36% do and nine 9% DK
Poll finds 45% of Scots think they will financially worse off under independence. 36% say they will be better off
Poll finds electing 56 SNP MPs. 59% say this makes indepdence more likely. 29% No Diff. 3% Less likely 9% unsure
Poll finds on Const VI SNP 52 Labour 23% Con 14% LD 6%, Greens 3% Ukip 2%.
Poll finds on List VI SNP 48% Lab 22% Cons 15%, Greens 6% LDs 6% and Ukip on 3%
Poll finds 67% viewing Independence as likely within 5 to 30 years 22% think it unlikely in the next few decades. 1/2
2/2 31% say independence is likely in the next 5 to 10 years 24% believe it will happen in 10-15 years 12% expect it but not for 20-30 years0 -
Brilliant from Fallon!Tim_B said:Before his interview with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show last night, Donald Trump interviews his reflection in the mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA0 -
LOL, sell turnips.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland -poll Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) Changes since July
Poll finds 55% of voters as a whole do not want another referendum in the next 5 years while 36% do and nine 9% DK
Poll finds 45% of Scots think they will financially worse off under independence. 36% say they will be better off
Poll finds electing 56 SNP MPs. 59% say this makes indepdence more likely. 29% No Diff. 3% Less likely 9% unsure
Poll finds on Const VI SNP 52 Labour 23% Con 14% LD 6%, Greens 3% Ukip 2%.
Poll finds on List VI SNP 48% Lab 22% Cons 15%, Greens 6% LDs 6% and Ukip on 3%
Poll finds 67% viewing Independence as likely within 5 to 30 years 22% think it unlikely in the next few decades. 1/2
2/2 31% say independence is likely in the next 5 to 10 years 24% believe it will happen in 10-15 years 12% expect it but not for 20-30 years0 -
They aren't stupid, they must be thinking that Corbyn will lead to more years of Tory government, which will lead to more cuts to the BBC, and they are probably correct.saddened said:0 -
Not a fan thus far, but will watch closely this Autumn. WRT loyalty he can expect the same loyalty he has shown to others.SeanT said:
What's your opinion on Corbyn? Will you loyally follow and support him?Jonathan said:Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.0 -
Unless, of course, his name was Sajid Javed !another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.0 -
By-election will only happen after the Mayoralty vote.flightpath01 said:
There will I guess be two London by elections on the same day in due course. Presumably these will be used by both sides to set the scene for the Mayoral election.surbiton said:
We need to record this one ! Also, Goldsmith will get 75% of the votes in Kingston !AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
0 -
An evidential statement of the extent of that delusionalex. said:
But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.ReggieCide said:
Corbinite delusionJWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
0 -
Are you totally stupid? So what? We know that there were Loyalist paramilitaries and we do not praise them. We know both sides paramilitaries themselves colluded with each other in their smuggling and protection rackets and their other common criminal activities.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
He's made a bit of a rod for his own back over the loyalty issue, hasn't he?Jonathan said:
Not a fan thus far, but will watch closely this Autumn. WRT loyalty he can expect the same loyalty he has shown to others.SeanT said:
What's your opinion on Corbyn? Will you loyally follow and support him?Jonathan said:Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.
I'm not surprised he wants to devolve a lot of decision-making to the grassroots: that way people would be rebelling against the Labour membership (naughty, naughty MPs, especially if you need to win selection among the new constituencies) as opposed to rebelling against the former arch-rebel himself (something they may feel no compunction against).0 -
Sajid Javid is not a Muslim.surbiton said:
Unless, of course, his name was Sajid Javed !another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.0 -
It's the way of things, except it seems to Blair who seemed to be immune to many of the rules of politics. It wasnt until Cameron became leader of the Cons that they managed to get in positive figures over Labour.alex. said:
I don't see any real reason to think he will have overall majority type leads. Why should he?notme said:
The rerating of labour support, as a consequence of getting it wrong in May will make any leads Corbyn have, look very paltry. But yes I expect Corbyn to have overall majority type leads for the bulk of this parliament. in November 2019 support will fall away and in 2020 Labour will get somewhere between 28% and 32% of the vote.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
I also expect a few local government successes. The Cons will be hoping to maybe squeeze a few gains in May, but following that we will see an attrition of councillors.
The Government is going to get a lot of grief following the autumn spending review.
We will see a cross over at some point and sustained leads after that.
Next May we have some massive tests to his position though:
Scottish Parliament
Police and Crime Commissioners
Mayor of London
Local Elections.
He could have done with these happening in 2017, he will get the natural opposition bounce that happens at a local level. Scottish Parliament will be a blood bath. Labour will be expecting to take the mayorality in London, to not get it will be a nail in Jezza's coffin.
0 -
Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc0 -
Poor result for Out.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland -poll Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) Changes since July
I do wonder what the dynamic would be if, perhaps, Galloway rejoined Labour and was let loose in Scotland by Corbyn - not that Corbyn seems to care about leading on anything.0 -
It is an imperfect world, and not how I would like it. I do what I can.AnneJGP said:
In all likelihood, every case is a deserving case, in one way or another. Sooner or later, someone is going to have to say things that will sound (and be) lacking in compassion for the would-be entrants, because to allow them in will be lacking in compassion for those who are already here.foxinsoxuk said:
I have no easy answers, because there are none.
It is perfectly true that the poorest of the people already here are vastly wealthy compared to the destitute in other lands. But it is the poorest of the people here already who will suffer first & suffer most as more & more poor people from abroad are added to their number.
For example, when food/clothing collections were organised here, many people donated. But only a few weeks previously, when a similar appeal was made for local homeless people, very little was forthcoming.
So there was all this stuff stacked up waiting to go to Calais when people literally on our doorstep were in urgent need of it.
Petsonally I would make any asylum seekers status contingent on them agreeing to abide by a list of British values (the rule of law, non-violent resolution of political disputes, equality of races, sexes and LBGT people, freedom of speech and expression, freedom of religion and apostasy etc). If they refuse the terms then their asylum claim is discarded. Having been granted status then this should be automatically reviewed if they cease to respect the terms and deportation to follow.
I welcome real refugees provided they do not bring their feuds with them. If they want that then they would be better suited to a different country.0 -
hallelujah, hallelujah, hosannah, hosannahkle4 said:
JC is the the way the truth and the life.alex. said:
But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.ReggieCide said:
Corbinite delusionJWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
0 -
So you think you speak for all BME votes do you ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, you have special powers of being able to read all of our BME minds!another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.
Though you clearly have reading inabilities when it comes to the word 'some'.
Making yourself look silly TWICE on the same thread is rather unbecoming to you Sunil.
0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenanne_Gangflightpath01 said:
Your miserable feking point being? I remember watching the News the day when the British Army came out of barracks in NI - to protect the Catholics. Despite what you would like to pretend in another post the Govt and the tory party did not collude in or support or encourage Loyalist murderers. There is not a sheet of paper long enough to list the terrorists Corbyn has apologised for.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_Research_Unit
0 -
Surely not. Just a coincidence that their current affairs department has been a revolving door for Tories and Blairites.tyson said:Bloody hell- the BBC pre MoD news- not very pretty for Jezza on his first day. I cannot think of any other occasion when the BEEB have gone after a party leader in quite such a vicious way.
If I was a conspiracy, paranoid theorist I would suspect that the higher management of the BEEB have a political agenda........
0 -
I certainly donot have the dislike of the BBC many here do, but I recall an article theorising that while they are slanted left, what the BBC is above all is Establishment, so Corbyn pitching as anti that may override any leftness.SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.0 -
She should have a head-to-head with some of the Labour nobs, they have common problems.SeanT said:Sturgeon surely knows this. A 2nd referendum in the next few years would be lost, killing the dream and destroying her party. But how does she manage the expectations of her mad new members?
0 -
Sunil, old chap, you have been plugging these one liners about the "loyalist" terrorists for a couple of days now. It seems to me that you wish to make a point but nobody is biting. So why not just come out and say what you want to say?Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_Research_Unitflightpath01 said:
Are you totally stupid? So what? We know that there were Loyalist paramilitaries and we do not praise them. We know both sides paramilitaries themselves colluded with each other in their smuggling and protection rackets and their other common criminal activities.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
That's about it.kle4 said:
I certainly donot have the dislike of the BBC many here do, but I recall an article theorising that while they are slanted left, what the BBC is above all is Establishment, so Corbyn pitching as anti that may override any leftness.SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.
0 -
They are just establishment through and through - socially a little liberal, economically firmly neoliberal, the status quo gets their collective genitals frothing. Anything out of the London upper middle class dinner party consensus deserves comic derision.0
-
Why ? Only one can win. Rich Boy may resign earlier if the government does a U-turn on Heathrow, which it will.flightpath01 said:
There will I guess be two London by elections on the same day in due course. Presumably these will be used by both sides to set the scene for the Mayoral election.surbiton said:
We need to record this one ! Also, Goldsmith will get 75% of the votes in Kingston !AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Let's see if he does keep his word.0 -
'C'est magnifique, mais n'est pas l'aptitude'MyBurningEars said:
He's made a bit of a rod for his own back over the loyalty issue, hasn't he?Jonathan said:
Not a fan thus far, but will watch closely this Autumn. WRT loyalty he can expect the same loyalty he has shown to others.SeanT said:
What's your opinion on Corbyn? Will you loyally follow and support him?Jonathan said:Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.
I'm not surprised he wants to devolve a lot of decision-making to the grassroots: that way people would be rebelling against the Labour membership (naughty, naughty MPs, especially if you need to win selection among the new constituencies) as opposed to rebelling against the former arch-rebel himself (something they may feel no compunction against).0 -
Ridicule is nothing to be scared of, my dear!another_richard said:
So you think you speak for all BME votes do you ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, you have special powers of being able to read all of our BME minds!another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.
Though you clearly have reading inabilities when it comes to the word 'some'.
Making yourself look silly TWICE on the same thread is rather unbecoming to you Sunil.0 -
You massacring the Gloria Patri?SquareRoot said:
Is, was, always shall be, world without end AMEN./ Bryant will understand the reference.Alanbrooke said:Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
0 -
The story Cameron and Osborne are going to paint to the country (remorselessly and with ruthless, repetitive use of messaging opportunities) is that people voting for Labour are voting for a party with all those negatives. I think they may be successful in doing so.JEO said:
Anyone that supports Labour under Corbyn is supporting a party that endorses sharing a platform with Islamists and handing over British territory over the heads of the British people that live there. I have been told by many over the years that it is a right wing myth that Labour dislikes Britain, but they are clearly prepared to elect an anti-British ideologue as leader.SeanT said:
What's your opinion on Corbyn? Will you loyally follow and support him?Jonathan said:Voted for Cooper, got Corbyn. Oh well.
Silver lining, those on the centre left can not afford to be dull, wet and wooly any more.
But.
I don't think the Labour membership as a whole (though I might be wrong) support handing over the Falklands/Gibraltar/NI. I don't think they feel the same sympathy for the IRA (though the younger cohorts of voters may not see what all the fuss was about, it all having washed into the Peace Process as far as they're concerned) and their sympathy with militant islamists is almost certainly restricted to foreign policy and civil rights issues, rather than social policy.
And Corbyn in charge of the party is not likely to be pressing a hard-left agenda. It sounds like he has put his personal feelings about abolition of the monarchy on the back-burner. I imagine a lot of his other baggage will join it there - not that that will stop the Tories attacking him over it.0 -
In case you missed it Part I
I love Jezbollah. Rumours say he is bringing back Lady Nugee* as Shadow Justice Secretary
*That's Emily Thornberry to you fecking plebs.0 -
She could start by getting independence for Rockall, give it a few years to see how it goes, then Orkney, then Shetland, then proceed to the mainland, hoping the oil price has recovered by then.SeanT said:
Matches my suspicions. Indy is an *aspiration* for Scots. Ideally, they'd like it, but in reality, aaaah, not quite now. No. Maybe in the 2020s. Aye.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland -poll Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) Changes since July
Poll finds 55% of voters as a whole do not want another referendum in the next 5 years while 36% do and nine 9% DK
Poll finds 45% of Scots think they will financially worse off under independence. 36% say they will be better off
Poll finds electing 56 SNP MPs. 59% say this makes indepdence more likely. 29% No Diff. 3% Less likely 9% unsure
Poll finds on Const VI SNP 52 Labour 23% Con 14% LD 6%, Greens 3% Ukip 2%.
Poll finds on List VI SNP 48% Lab 22% Cons 15%, Greens 6% LDs 6% and Ukip on 3%
Poll finds 67% viewing Independence as likely within 5 to 30 years 22% think it unlikely in the next few decades. 1/2
2/2 31% say independence is likely in the next 5 to 10 years 24% believe it will happen in 10-15 years 12% expect it but not for 20-30 years
Sturgeon surely knows this. A 2nd referendum in the next few years would be lost, killing the dream and destroying her party. But how does she manage the expectations of her mad new members?0 -
In case you missed it Part II
Sunday Times:
A POLICE investigation into claims of murder by a VIP paedophile ring has been halted after detectives could find no evidence to support the allegations.
Officers from the Suffolk force became so worried by the behaviour of the “witness” who made the claims — known only as Darren — that they have referred his son to social services.
Darren has now said that he will no longer co-operate with the police. He had previously given lurid accounts of two incidents in which he claimed people died at the hands of a paedophile gang that included a senior Conservative politician.0 -
Yes, hi. Just back from a party branch meeting - apparently 6000 further people joined the party (nationally) this afternoon. Local membership is up to 8% of the electorate, but this is home territory for Jeremy.HopiSen said:Is NickP around tonight ?
Various people at the meeting who have been going around with Vote Corbyn stickers reported a fair amount of interest (some enthusiasm, some just curiosity) from people on buses and tubes.MyBurningEars said:
On topic: I agree very strongly with this comment. Polls at this stage are not only pretty meaningless, but these specific questions are particularly naff.
What they do suffice to show, is that the "Corbynmania" - this energising flood of euphoria that so many grassroots lefties have reported a surging tide of - hasn't broken through into mainstream opinion. It is still reminiscent of the early inklings of the SNP or Green surges - but that just goes to show it might yet catch light (not the bookies' favourite at the moment) or could simply fizzle out without translating into parliamentary gains (even if gets voting numbers up, they may well not be well-distributed electorally*).
Yes, I think that's fair comment. People who are interested in politics are reacting strongly, People who aren't haven't really reacted much, either to the enthusiasm or to the IRA/Hamas stuff. I suspect they'll take more interest (either way!) as coverage builds in the coming weeks.
0 -
Leader. YC,LK,AB
Dep SC
YC has gravitas and the ability to hurt Cameron.
LK should have been able to win my vote, but ran a poor campaign that seemed actively to aggravate people. Dumb.
0 -
Wise up.... It was an extremely dirty war.SquareRoot said:
proof of collusion please... who in the Govt authorised thisSunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Reaction_Force0 -
The top brass of BBC News are Tories !kle4 said:
I certainly donot have the dislike of the BBC many here do, but I recall an article theorising that while they are slanted left, what the BBC is above all is Establishment, so Corbyn pitching as anti that may override any leftness.SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.0 -
Hate on them all you like, but when they are on the hunt for something the Mail can be very, very good at it.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc0 -
It's interesting how the radio 4 comedy shows such as dead ringers, now show and news quiz have changed their tune. They never really coped with the Conservative been out of power under Blair. It was confusing for them. So they just carried on making jokes about Thatcher. When the coalition took charge it was business as usual. Angry ranty preachy about baby eating conservatives. About half way through the parliament it started to change tack. Humour was now directed at how awful Labour and specifically Ed Miliband was.kle4 said:
I certainly donot have the dislike of the BBC many here do, but I recall an article theorising that while they are slanted left, what the BBC is above all is Establishment, so Corbyn pitching as anti that may override any leftness.SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.
It was their total irrelevance. Dead Ringers this week ripped into Labour in a way I havent heard on the BBC for some time. There was a lot of less than subtle humour about Corbyn's association with a whole load of very dodgy religious nut cases. He was getting chunks ripped out of him.0 -
Is it not dangerous to call Jeremy Corbyn JC - won't that confuse some people into thinking you are talking about either Julius Caesar or Jesus Christ?
0 -
Well this is just an anecdote, but I had lunch with my parents today. Normal not particularly political couple of pensioners. They read the Daily Express so these aren't socialists in any way. They always vote but make their minds up afresh each election. Vote Tory most often but voted for Blair and Brown. Ruled Miliband out early on - (as did I nearer the actual vote). Said they didn't like the sound of Corbyn much. It took me about 15 minutes to talk them round. He is still untested and could easily louse things up, but I think he is a much easier sell than Brown or Miliband.
What the partisans on here don't seem to appreciate, even though it is really really obvious, is that the people Labour need to win back are not the die hard partisan Tories. They are the waverers who were in two minds back in May. These people are neither left wing nor right wing. There are arguments that can be deployed that they will buy. Admittedly in my story I know the things that work with my parents - I have been talking to them about politics for 40 years. But on the other hand I am not a Labour Party member nor much of a salesman.
Despise him if you choose. I think he is a decent and patriotic man personally, but you are entitled to your opinion. Disagree with his policies if you like, but I'd forgive a lot to get a national investment bank. But you'd be unwise to assume he is no hoper.0 -
I've got a thread coming up where I compare Corbyn to Julius CaesarTim_B said:Is it not dangerous to call Jeremy Corbyn JC - won't that confuse some people into thinking you are talking about either Julius Caesar or Jesus Christ?
0 -
Her formal title is Chief Patroniser of St. George, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:In case you missed it Part I
I love Jezbollah. Rumours say he is bringing back Lady Nugee* as Shadow Justice Secretary
*That's Emily Thornberry to you fecking plebs.0 -
So it's true! I'd heard some people could do that and some other people believed it. Now I know it's true. Praise be to JC.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, you have special powers of being able to read all of our BME minds!another_richard said:
Perhaps an equivalent of New York - where many Hispanics wont vote for an Afro-American and many Afro-Americans wont vote for a Hispanic.AndyJS said:
I was a bit surprised by the polling showing black voters less likely to vote Labour with Khan as candidate but if that happens you could get a 55/45 result like I forecast.another_richard said:
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
Tribal politics.
Certainly there will be some Black Christian Londoners who wont vote for a Muslim.
Ditto Jews / Hindus / Sikhs.
'Celebrate the mosaic'.0 -
You only have to watch that and then you realise that Donald Trump will probably be the next POTUS. Trump combines the folksy charm of Bush, the dumbness of Reagan and the A star, testosterone charisma of Clinton. He is masterclass of parody....even I liked him after watching that sketch.
The Democrats and GOP have to dig a lot deeper if they are to find someone who can stop him. Biden maybe the only and last hope for both the Democrats and GOP to stop Trump...and even then I somehow doubt it.HYUFD said:
Brilliant from Fallon!Tim_B said:Before his interview with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show last night, Donald Trump interviews his reflection in the mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA0 -
I was with some retired Nepalese soldiers today and a few retired officers from other regiments of the Army, they came to me and spontaneously started talking about how a man like him could not ever become Prime Minister, not with his view on defence. It was a disbelief that Labour had gone down this path.JWisemann said:
Surely not. Just a coincidence that their current affairs department has been a revolving door for Tories and Blairites.tyson said:Bloody hell- the BBC pre MoD news- not very pretty for Jezza on his first day. I cannot think of any other occasion when the BEEB have gone after a party leader in quite such a vicious way.
If I was a conspiracy, paranoid theorist I would suspect that the higher management of the BEEB have a political agenda........0 -
Do as I say not as I do.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc
Eagles
You rally need to send this up the CCHQ chain of command:
Get the next set of Conservatives Tshirts / mugs / badges/ tat made at a British factory.
Getting them made in Britain would bring more beneficial publicity than whatever the logo they sport says.
0 -
I cannot say I am surprised.TheScreamingEagles said:In case you missed it Part II
Sunday Times:
A POLICE investigation into claims of murder by a VIP paedophile ring has been halted after detectives could find no evidence to support the allegations.
Officers from the Suffolk force became so worried by the behaviour of the “witness” who made the claims — known only as Darren — that they have referred his son to social services.
Darren has now said that he will no longer co-operate with the police. He had previously given lurid accounts of two incidents in which he claimed people died at the hands of a paedophile gang that included a senior Conservative politician.0 -
The general positions of the organisation are more traditionally seen as sympathetic to the left. But I think many Tories just look for bias wherever they can, and the BBC makes a very good stab a political neutrality, too often you get something like 'The BBC spent too much on pens; this shows the licence fee must be abolished'. The same argument is made for more substantive reasons, but it loses its impact on me as a result of repitition.surbiton said:
The top brass of BBC News are Tories !kle4 said:
I certainly donot have the dislike of the BBC many here do, but I recall an article theorising that while they are slanted left, what the BBC is above all is Establishment, so Corbyn pitching as anti that may override any leftness.SeanT said:
Agreed - amazingly. I'm surprised how nasty the BBC has been about Corbyn.surbiton said:
This is , of course, the left biased BBC we are talking about.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I guess it is a combo of their being afraid of the Tories, and many of them being sincerely Blairite centre-lefties who despise Corbynism. e.g. I cannot imagine Danny Cohen, the head of the BBC, or his wife Noreena Hertz, is hugely delighted by Corbyn's ascent.
I agree with nome though that Ed M in particular got it pretty hard from much of the BBC in some quarters.0 -
Is it true the Ulster Defence Association were legal from their inception in 1971 until as late as 1992?MyBurningEars said:
In what way is this going to make Corbyn any more palatable to the British people?Sunil_Prasannan said:
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I think most Brits will deny there was collusion, either because they are unaware of the allegations (about Nairac or Stakeknife or whoever) or because they don't believe them.
When John McDonnell praised the "bravery and sacrifice" of the IRA ("It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA.") Labour did their best to shut him up because they knew it was bad news electorally. When Jeremy Corbyn has such close personal ties to the leadership of Sinn Fein, it is hardly going to make him more popular.
If he tried to justify it by getting into a tit-for-tat argument about who did what and who knew about it, decades ago, it would just be digging a deeper hole for himself.0 -
The Tories and I have been in discussions about Corbyn.another_richard said:
Do as I say not as I do.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc
Eagles
You rally need to send this up the CCHQ chain of command:
Get the next set of Conservatives Tshirts / mugs / badges/ tat made at a British factory.
Getting them made in Britain would bring more beneficial publicity than whatever the logo they sport says.
This is a prelude of what the Tories are going to do.
It's going to get brutal
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COuPCloWsAA3KOn.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COuPZiRWwAA91CR.png0 -
That's good wages in a Third World country ! I hope people in other TW countries could earn that.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc0 -
Thanks Nick. Corbyn is a high-risk option, the possible upside and downside really haven't been fully explored yet and won't show up in the polls til stuff has seeped through to soceity as a whole (a process that might take a couple of years). My feeling is that his potential upside and downside are very large compared to a typical politician. It is entirely possible that they will more or less cancel each other out exactly! So it will be worth paying close attention to churn figures, as well as headline ones.NickPalmer said:MyBurningEars said:
On topic: I agree very strongly with this comment. Polls at this stage are not only pretty meaningless, but these specific questions are particularly naff.
What they do suffice to show, is that the "Corbynmania" - this energising flood of euphoria that so many grassroots lefties have reported a surging tide of - hasn't broken through into mainstream opinion. It is still reminiscent of the early inklings of the SNP or Green surges - but that just goes to show it might yet catch light (not the bookies' favourite at the moment) or could simply fizzle out without translating into parliamentary gains (even if gets voting numbers up, they may well not be well-distributed electorally*).
Yes, I think that's fair comment. People who are interested in politics are reacting strongly, People who aren't haven't really reacted much, either to the enthusiasm or to the IRA/Hamas stuff. I suspect they'll take more interest (either way!) as coverage builds in the coming weeks.0 -
Or Jeremy Clarkson?Tim_B said:Is it not dangerous to call Jeremy Corbyn JC - won't that confuse some people into thinking you are talking about either Julius Caesar or Jesus Christ?
0 -
Corbyn will balance the books faster and keep it there. Cancel Trident saves many billions.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories and I have been in discussions about Corbyn.another_richard said:
Do as I say not as I do.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc
Eagles
You rally need to send this up the CCHQ chain of command:
Get the next set of Conservatives Tshirts / mugs / badges/ tat made at a British factory.
Getting them made in Britain would bring more beneficial publicity than whatever the logo they sport says.
This is a prelude of what the Tories are going to do.
It's going to get brutal
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COuPCloWsAA3KOn.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COuPZiRWwAA91CR.png
Some QE. QE will be inflationary unless it was done under the Tories.0 -
"All of the workers we spoke to earned £101.29 a month – just pennies more than the country’s minimum wage of £100.95. "surbiton said:
That's good wages in a Third World country ! I hope people in other TW countries could earn that.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
@ianbirrell: Workers who made 'Team Corbyn' T-shirts earned just 49p an hour
http://dailym.ai/1Nw7iGc
0 -
Reagan was apparantly highly intelligent and interested in 'intellectual' p[olitical debate.tyson said:You only have to watch that and then you realise that Donald Trump will probably be the next POTUS. Trump combines the folksy charm of Bush, the dumbness of Reagan and the A star, testosterone charisma of Clinton. He is masterclass of parody....even I liked him after watching that sketch.
The Democrats and GOP have to dig a lot deeper if they are to find someone who can stop him. Biden maybe the only and last hope for both the Democrats and GOP to stop Trump...and even then I somehow doubt it.HYUFD said:
Brilliant from Fallon!Tim_B said:Before his interview with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show last night, Donald Trump interviews his reflection in the mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA
His 'dumbness' being an effect of increasing old age and the effects of being shot.
0 -
Why don't you just fecking tell us what you want to say? If you have a point to make then make it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Is it true the Ulster Defence Association were legal from their inception in 1971 until as late as 1992?MyBurningEars said:
In what way is this going to make Corbyn any more palatable to the British people?Sunil_Prasannan said:
The first RUC man (ie. police) to be killed in the Troubles, Victor Arbuckle, was shot dead by Loyalists on 11/10/69, who were, irony of ironies, protesting against the planned disarming of the RUC.saddened said:
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
I think most Brits will deny there was collusion, either because they are unaware of the allegations (about Nairac or Stakeknife or whoever) or because they don't believe them.
When John McDonnell praised the "bravery and sacrifice" of the IRA ("It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA.") Labour did their best to shut him up because they knew it was bad news electorally. When Jeremy Corbyn has such close personal ties to the leadership of Sinn Fein, it is hardly going to make him more popular.
If he tried to justify it by getting into a tit-for-tat argument about who did what and who knew about it, decades ago, it would just be digging a deeper hole for himself.0
