It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
No-one seems to want to talk about the LDs these days but they're probably fairly pleased at today's developments. Might get them back into double figures in the polls.
10% at most as Farron is on the left too, UKIP will be more delighted Labour have elected a pro immigration Islington leftie
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Ah sorry, you beat me to it. Wouldn't say "never happened" - more like, "it didn't last". That's for the USA, though, whereas for the UK it got down and stayed down.
(Looking in inflation-adjusted dollars terms only is a bit misleading: it'd be helpful also to see it in terms of % GDP, which would be a slightly different story.)
In the UK the position is not as you state, Mr. Ears.
The "Peace Dividend " was taken with the "options for Change" defence cuts of 1992. Since then defence spending and capability has been cut time and again. So not so much "got Down and stayed down" more "got down and then taken further down and down and down again". We now only make the NATO agreement of 2% of GDP by account tricks and including stuff in the defence spend that never was in there before.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies says UK defence spending $62bn; French $53bn; Japan $48; Germany $44. Israel $23. Russia just ahead of us at $70 BTW.
Quite bizarre that the so called party of equality utterly failed to elect a woman into one of the top positions. It basically means that by the time Labour get a Female leader is going to be around Half a century after the Tories. When they get a female PM is more than likely never.
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
Labour doing well in London in 1986 clearly benefitted the Conservatives in 1987, not only in London but nationwide.
The new Labour councils in Ealing and Waltham Forest putting up the rates by IIRC 65% and 62% respectively a few weeks before the general election was publicity beyong price to CCHQ.
It also helped cause dredful results for Labour in London - see Ealing North and Walthstow in 1987.
Which makes me wonder if London Labour was behaving itself after the 2014 local elections in anticipation of the 2015 general election.
And now they'll go all out Corbynista.
Katy Hoey said on the radio today that Lambeth/Vauxhall Labour have 600 new members. Those guys are going to Corbinistas. And with those numbers they'll soon have councillors controlling budgets and policy. So we may see some Derek Hatton-like action at local level. Conference will be lively too I should think.
The first time around HMG reacted to the Hatton style councils by emasculating local government and centralising power. A very Sir Humphrey solution but understandable in the circumstances of the time.
She we come in for a re-run it is to be hoped that HMG's response will be more in tune with the times and, of course, the doctrine of localism. A simple, "You voted for them, don't at me" approach perhaps If councils go bankrupt because of perverse decisions then so be it, and of course there are means in place to recover monies from councilors who make perverse decisions..
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Osborne will have become very familiar to the general electorate by then and only two people can be put to the Tory party electorate by the PCP. So assuming he wants to be leader then only one other candidate out of any challengers will have a chance of sharing that contest. Assuming I live that long I might well be one of that electorate by then.
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Neither of them have the appeal of Cameron, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Ummuna, Stella Creasey and Alan Johnson would all be competitive
Ah sorry, you beat me to it. Wouldn't say "never happened" - more like, "it didn't last". That's for the USA, though, whereas for the UK it got down and stayed down.
(Looking in inflation-adjusted dollars terms only is a bit misleading: it'd be helpful also to see it in terms of % GDP, which would be a slightly different story.)
In the UK the position is not as you state, Mr. Ears.
The "Peace Dividend " was taken with the "options for Change" defence cuts of 1992. Since then defence spending and capability has been cut time and again. So not so much "got Down and stayed down" more "got down and then taken further down and down and down again". We now only make the NATO agreement of 2% of GDP by account tricks and including stuff in the defence spend that never was in there before.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies says UK defence spending $62bn; French $53bn; Japan $48; Germany $44. Israel $23. Russia just ahead of us at $70 BTW.
Your loyalty to the cause does you credit, Mr. Path. None of what you said, however, has any but the most tangential bearing on what I said.
As an aside, if you want to think about defence spending in a useful way then stop thinking of it as a league table. Think about what bang what a country gets for their input. Specifically, you might want to compare Japan with the UK.
No-one seems to want to talk about the LDs these days but they're probably fairly pleased at today's developments. Might get them back into double figures in the polls.
10% at most as Farron is on the left too, UKIP will be more delighted Labour have elected a pro immigration Islington leftie
Oh please! I would have thought that Islington leftie Corbyn (otherwise known as Shouty Man) and his leadership will go down a storm in Cleckmathorp-on-Spittle Workingmen's Club.
Saving billions spent on a weapon of mass destruction that can't be used without another country's say so = being unpatriotic for some reason. Whereas hounding disabled people to death = patriotism.
Once again a fabrication. The control of the Trident weapons are entirely within the British chain of command. How many more times does this need to be pointed out to you?
Not sure the loony left are interested in facts right now.
Saving billions spent on a weapon of mass destruction that can't be used without another country's say so = being unpatriotic for some reason. Whereas hounding disabled people to death = patriotism.
Once again a fabrication. The control of the Trident weapons are entirely within the British chain of command. How many more times does this need to be pointed out to you?
You have hit upon a new and quite understandable definition of 'infinity'
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Neither of them have the appeal of Cameron, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Ummuna, Stella Creasey and Alan Johnson would all be competitive
Pretty weird to see as much praise as there has been for Cameron since the election, it was pretty rare before but understandably his unexpected win has led to something of reevaluation. He's still not beloved or super competent, but he's plausible and, to the chagrin of his opponents, very unthreatening, he doesn't seem to cause people to worry about what he is doing, and that has proven enough to get plenty done.
Last note for the night, shame Bradshaw did so poorly. Good night
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Neither of them have the appeal of Cameron, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Ummuna, Stella Creasey and Alan Johnson would all be competitive
Alan Johnson? Really? You are still touting him as a potential Labour leader? Come on be serious.
Javis has got a nice backstory, but who knows what his politics actually are? Additionally, he has just written a report giving his views on why Labour lost last May which I expect will be as welcome as a plague rat in the corridors of Labour HQ.
Ummuna? Skeletons, more than you can shake a bone at. He dropped out of the running very quickly for this election, did he not? Personal reasons, time was not right, something like that. He found out he would be crucified in public, more like. What will change before 2020.
It wouldn't surprise me if some Tories privately have mixed feelings about the London mayoral election next year. They'd like to win it obviously but if they do it would be a serious blow for Corbyn on his home turf, and his chances of facing the electorate in 2020 would go down considerably.
There's no mixed feelings they will *want* to win it. They will want to make gains in Council elections, they will want to see if they can manage any kind of improvement north of the border.
What would do for Corbyn would not be losing the London Mayor (as Labour will almost certainly win the London Assembly) but coming third in a by-election to UKIP in a former Labour seat. Remember it was coming third in Brent East behind Labour and the LDs which did for IDS in the end
The MPs were able to guillottine IDS when he underdelivered and when they were able to replace him. The MPs this time don't expect Corbyn to deliver anything and they know they can't choose who replaces him.
Except they replaced IDS with Howard and still lost
If Cameron fights another election the Tories will win regardless, if he does not another leader could have an outside chance, Corbyn next to no chance
A very outside chance indeed. Who have labour got that could compete with, say Liz Truss or Sajid Javid (one of whom I reckon will be the next Conservative leader - barring accidents)?
Neither of them have the appeal of Cameron, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Ummuna, Stella Creasey and Alan Johnson would all be competitive
Pretty weird to see as much praise as there has been for Cameron since the election, it was pretty rare before but understandably his unexpected win has led to something of reevaluation. He's still not beloved or super competent, but he's plausible and, to the chagrin of his opponents, very unthreatening, he doesn't seem to cause people to worry about what he is doing, and that has proven enough to get plenty done.
Last note for the night, shame Bradshaw did so poorly. Good night
Indeed and once Blair was removed from the scene he has comfortably led all the Labour alternatives as preferred PM, including Corbyn
No-one seems to want to talk about the LDs these days but they're probably fairly pleased at today's developments. Might get them back into double figures in the polls.
10% at most as Farron is on the left too, UKIP will be more delighted Labour have elected a pro immigration Islington leftie
Oh please! I would have thought that Islington leftie Corbyn (otherwise known as Shouty Man) and his leadership will go down a storm in Cleckmathorp-on-Spittle Workingmen's Club.
Ah sorry, you beat me to it. Wouldn't say "never happened" - more like, "it didn't last". That's for the USA, though, whereas for the UK it got down and stayed down.
(Looking in inflation-adjusted dollars terms only is a bit misleading: it'd be helpful also to see it in terms of % GDP, which would be a slightly different story.)
In the UK the position is not as you state, Mr. Ears.
The "Peace Dividend " was taken with the "options for Change" defence cuts of 1992. Since then defence spending and capability has been cut time and again. So not so much "got Down and stayed down" more "got down and then taken further down and down and down again". We now only make the NATO agreement of 2% of GDP by account tricks and including stuff in the defence spend that never was in there before.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies says UK defence spending $62bn; French $53bn; Japan $48; Germany $44. Israel $23. Russia just ahead of us at $70 BTW.
Your loyalty to the cause does you credit, Mr. Path. None of what you said, however, has any but the most tangential bearing on what I said. As an aside, if you want to think about defence spending in a useful way then stop thinking of it as a league table. Think about what bang what a country gets for their input. Specifically, you might want to compare Japan with the UK.
I am not trying to dispute anything - I am pointing out the facts as they seem to be. The figures projected to 2045 are based on what the relative value of each currency gives.
I am very open to argument about the efficiency of our defence procurement and the abilities of our top brass to select the right equipment etc.
CANADA: Liberals reviving, now a 3-horse race again SWEDEN: Far-right Sweden Democrats slipping back down, but still 6 points over last election. Main blocs tied after Social Democrat losses. DENMARK: Huge swing in favour of taking more refugees (from -21 last year to +21 this year). Virtually no change in party support. GERMANY: Merkel remains unchallenged - all parties near last election level, with Liberal FDP and anti-immigrant AfD down a bit and Left and Greens up a bit.
Overall, not much sign of a general anti-migrant backlash.
CANADA: Liberals reviving, now a 3-horse race again SWEDEN: Far-right Sweden Democrats slipping back down, but still 6 points over last election. Main blocs tied after Social Democrat losses. DENMARK: Huge swing in favour of taking more refugees (from -21 last year to +21 this year). Virtually no change in party support. GERMANY: Merkel remains unchallenged - all parties near last election level, with Liberal FDP and anti-immigrant AfD down a bit and Left and Greens up a bit.
Overall, not much sign of a general anti-migrant backlash.
Your reference to Canada is irrelevant firstly with respect to migrants. Italy has just seen LN+NCS begin to replace Forza Italia as the party of the right - and they are a member of Marine Le Pen's far-right Europe of Nations and Freedom.
Netherlands is seeing PVV beginning to break through as largest party although the polling has some disagreement at this point - this party is also a member of Europe of Nations and Freedom.
In Greece, pro-drachma and extreme (Communist, Golden Dawn and Popular Unity) parties make up around 17% of the vote.
Poland has an election in October and their centre-right Law&Justice party look set for a big win and they make Hungary look like child's play.
In Switzerland the Swiss People's Party cement their lead.
Obviously France has the National Front and Hollande is practically flat on his face, gifting a moderate centre-right win if things stay as they are.
Austria have the Freedom Party of Austria getting a recent high of 31% in the last opinion poll.
Not sure what poll you looked at for Sweden Democrats but from my perspective I see two recent polls showing leads for the first time ever - with a clear direction of travel. Especially considering this crisis is just getting started.
You can be naive or deny the facts to suit your agenda but it really doesn't look great Mr Palmer.
In other countries it is quite normal for the socialist party to have a socialist leader.
The hysteria in England is a consequence of the electoral system, which is maintained as first past the post to provide ‘stable government’. As representation in the formal public space, Parliament, is dependent on being a potential Government, a significant proportion of the British people find their views have no representation. What should they do? Many, in the large number of seats where change is, in practise, impossible, give up voting.
Some decide to reduce their chances of potential participation in Government in order to articulate a different narrative. Socialism and Social Democracy are, and have been for centuries, important to our national conversation.
Simply seeing events of which you do not approve as driven by madness is not analysis.
Having voted in around forty public elections and never once Labour, I wish the party and its new leader well.
Ah sorry, you beat me to it. Wouldn't say "never happened" - more like, "it didn't last". That's for the USA, though, whereas for the UK it got down and stayed down.
(Looking in inflation-adjusted dollars terms only is a bit misleading: it'd be helpful also to see it in terms of % GDP, which would be a slightly different story.)
In the UK the position is not as you state, Mr. Ears.
The "Peace Dividend " was taken with the "options for Change" defence cuts of 1992. Since then defence spending and capability has been cut time and again. So not so much "got Down and stayed down" more "got down and then taken further down and down and down again". We now only make the NATO agreement of 2% of GDP by account tricks and including stuff in the defence spend that never was in there before.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies says UK defence spending $62bn; French $53bn; Japan $48; Germany $44. Israel $23. Russia just ahead of us at $70 BTW.
That is tangential, and all the Euro nations have lower number because the Euro is on its backside vs the dollar. The £ is 20% higher relative to the Euro than 5 years ago, which accounts for your entire difference and then some.
Our Defence budget is about 38% of what it was in the early 1980s vs GDP, and half of what it was in 1990.
We are now back in uncertain times, so it needs to rise again.
Trident is an insurance just like any policy we have It is hoped that the car,house, contents and personal injury..etc...insurances are never called in..but we have to have them and of course some are mandatory,,just the same with Trident,,the RAF,,the Royal Navy,The Army.. it would be great if we never had to us any of them ..unfortunately we do..
Someone mentioned electoral systems in the EU. Ireland uses STV. Most of the rest use variations of party list PR, Additional Member etc. France uses two round (run off between top two after first round).
Wiki has a page: "Table of voting systems by country"
Can't find any reference to AV, but could be missing something. Not too much straight FPTP either.
Saving billions spent on a weapon of mass destruction that can't be used without another country's say so = being unpatriotic for some reason. Whereas hounding disabled people to death = patriotism.
Once again a fabrication. The control of the Trident weapons are entirely within the British chain of command. How many more times does this need to be pointed out to you?
Not sure the loony left are interested in facts right now.
It's like the issue of man portable missiles being used by terrorists. A number of passenger planes have been shot down by them over the years. All Russian (or copies thereof). Yet to some the risk is entirely American Stingers. When the facts are pointed out, they generally start to scream.....
Comments
You can also plough through this
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-strategic-trends-out-to-2045
We come out multiple billions ahead of France and 5th in the World.
She we come in for a re-run it is to be hoped that HMG's response will be more in tune with the times and, of course, the doctrine of localism. A simple, "You voted for them, don't at me" approach perhaps If councils go bankrupt because of perverse decisions then so be it, and of course there are means in place to recover monies from councilors who make perverse decisions..
Assuming I live that long I might well be one of that electorate by then.
But your suggestions otherwise are valid enough.
As an aside, if you want to think about defence spending in a useful way then stop thinking of it as a league table. Think about what bang what a country gets for their input. Specifically, you might want to compare Japan with the UK.
Last note for the night, shame Bradshaw did so poorly. Good night
Javis has got a nice backstory, but who knows what his politics actually are? Additionally, he has just written a report giving his views on why Labour lost last May which I expect will be as welcome as a plague rat in the corridors of Labour HQ.
Ummuna? Skeletons, more than you can shake a bone at. He dropped out of the running very quickly for this election, did he not? Personal reasons, time was not right, something like that. He found out he would be crucified in public, more like. What will change before 2020.
Creasey? Maybe, but who knows her? I dunno.
The figures projected to 2045 are based on what the relative value of each currency gives.
I am very open to argument about the efficiency of our defence procurement and the abilities of our top brass to select the right equipment etc.
CANADA: Liberals reviving, now a 3-horse race again
SWEDEN: Far-right Sweden Democrats slipping back down, but still 6 points over last election. Main blocs tied after Social Democrat losses.
DENMARK: Huge swing in favour of taking more refugees (from -21 last year to +21 this year). Virtually no change in party support.
GERMANY: Merkel remains unchallenged - all parties near last election level, with Liberal FDP and anti-immigrant AfD down a bit and Left and Greens up a bit.
Overall, not much sign of a general anti-migrant backlash.
Italy has just seen LN+NCS begin to replace Forza Italia as the party of the right - and they are a member of Marine Le Pen's far-right Europe of Nations and Freedom.
Netherlands is seeing PVV beginning to break through as largest party although the polling has some disagreement at this point - this party is also a member of Europe of Nations and Freedom.
In Greece, pro-drachma and extreme (Communist, Golden Dawn and Popular Unity) parties make up around 17% of the vote.
Poland has an election in October and their centre-right Law&Justice party look set for a big win and they make Hungary look like child's play.
In Switzerland the Swiss People's Party cement their lead.
Obviously France has the National Front and Hollande is practically flat on his face, gifting a moderate centre-right win if things stay as they are.
Austria have the Freedom Party of Austria getting a recent high of 31% in the last opinion poll.
Not sure what poll you looked at for Sweden Democrats but from my perspective I see two recent polls showing leads for the first time ever - with a clear direction of travel. Especially considering this crisis is just getting started.
You can be naive or deny the facts to suit your agenda but it really doesn't look great Mr Palmer.
In other countries it is quite normal for the socialist party to have a socialist leader.
The hysteria in England is a consequence of the electoral system, which is maintained as first past the post to provide ‘stable government’. As representation in the formal public space, Parliament, is dependent on being a potential Government, a significant proportion of the British people find their views have no representation. What should they do? Many, in the large number of seats where change is, in practise, impossible, give up voting.
Some decide to reduce their chances of potential participation in Government in order to articulate a different narrative. Socialism and Social Democracy are, and have been for centuries, important to our national conversation.
Simply seeing events of which you do not approve as driven by madness is not analysis.
Having voted in around forty public elections and never once Labour, I wish the party and its new leader well.
Our Defence budget is about 38% of what it was in the early 1980s vs GDP, and half of what it was in 1990.
We are now back in uncertain times, so it needs to rise again.
Wiki has a page: "Table of voting systems by country"
Can't find any reference to AV, but could be missing something. Not too much straight FPTP either.