Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in
That is the finding of a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, launched immediately after the result of the Labour leadership contest was announced yesterday.
0
Comments
Genius.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA
Shadow For Sec?
Shadow NI Sec?
Shadow Scottish Sec? (Scottish MP is not a fan)
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!"
Your three Blairite Pseudo-Tories could only muster 40.5% between them!
According to the polls, It's a Knockout! Labour apparently consign themselves to Room 101. Were there many blue-leaning Moles involved? It's Perfection for the Tories.
Will the defeated candidates in this Dog Eat Dog contest stand Four Square behind their new leader? There'll be Scavengers over the mess when this is all over and Who Dares, Wins.
"When the new trade union bill is passed a similar collapse in the party’s union funding will follow. The last private sector donors are already walking away. Leaving Labour a party without a credible prime minister, a credible cabinet, a credible policy programme or a credible funding stream. In other words, it has ceased to be a political party at all."
The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.
The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.
Eastasia has always been our ally.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html
And then add in strikes, power cuts and general crapness.
What do you do if your nose goes on strike ?
Picket / pick it.
Coming in 2020 if Labour gets its way.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
A total of 24 per cent of voters say Corbyn’s victory means they will be less likely to vote Labour; 18 per cent are more likely. Among Labour supporters 30 per cent are more likely and 15 per cent less likely.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
she's a bit of a posho herself.
Many "Corbyn" Labour supporters do not vote currently ! Usual polling methodology will not necessarily apply.
I also expect a few local government successes. The Cons will be hoping to maybe squeeze a few gains in May, but following that we will see an attrition of councillors.
The Government is going to get a lot of grief following the autumn spending review.
What they do suffice to show, is that the "Corbynmania" - this energising flood of euphoria that so many grassroots lefties have reported a surging tide of - hasn't broken through into mainstream opinion. It is still reminiscent of the early inklings of the SNP or Green surges - but that just goes to show it might yet catch light (not the bookies' favourite at the moment) or could simply fizzle out without translating into parliamentary gains (even if gets voting numbers up, they may well not be well-distributed electorally*).
* Corbynites suppose that he'll do well among working-class non-voters currently turned off of politics entirely, but history suggests this is a very hard group to break out into. Moreover turnout is generally lower in Labour safe seats, so these people are likely to be concentrated where they are least useful. There have also been glowing reports of Corbynmania across southern shires: but a word of caution here. There are still a core of Labour-voters (or sympathisers who, for local reasons, vote Lib Dem) in most places across the country, particularly wherever there are schools and colleges, large NHS facilities, civil service outposts and so on. Their enthusiasm may not be transmissible to the rest of the town they live, let alone the rural areas appended to the constituency. If Corbynism delivers a pro-Labour swing that is fairly evenly distributed across the country, it won't gain that many seats-per-point-of-swing. More likely, some of the effects (appeal to Old Labour types) are likely to be concentrated in Labour areas anyway, reducing the efficiency further.
https://barnabasfund.org/appeals
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings
Liz Kendall got 4% of the votes. She will be missed badly.