politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in
That is the finding of a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, launched immediately after the result of the Labour leadership contest was announced yesterday.
Comments
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First!0
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Was there a standard VI question?0
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Who cares? Corbyn = 59.5%
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Not been released yet.RobD said:Was there a standard VI question?
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That juicy? Tories 50%?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not been released yet.RobD said:Was there a standard VI question?
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So a net loss of 6% for Labour by electing Corbyn. Like they could afford to go backwards.
Genius.0 -
not a bloody selfie stick!0
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Yes when some nutters blow-up a whole load of Brits the sight of Corbyn explaining the nuances of his relationships with the Jihadists will definitely go down well with the public.SeanT said:But don't worry, lefties, it will all get better as Corbyn's coherent and intriguing opinions come under proper scrutiny, likewise his agreeable friends.
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Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?0 -
could be worse0
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You are the definition of optimist if you think those DKs are going to break in a positive fashion for Corbyn.JWisemann said:Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?0 -
I like the idea that that its a stunning showing when a good deal less than half of the population actively think the actual prime minister is more prime ministerial than someone who we have been unceasingly informed is the second coming of bin laden.0
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Before his interview with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show last night, Donald Trump interviews his reflection in the mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA0 -
Any suggestions for:
Shadow For Sec?
Shadow NI Sec?
Shadow Scottish Sec? (Scottish MP is not a fan)
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On the other hand Corbyn will probably (if I get the phrase right) be ahead in his own poll ratings compared with his party.
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"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
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I love my Mum!
She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!" 0 -
I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.0
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I think as well he is something of a Mr Angry.SeanT said:
And that's BEFORE most voters even know his name. Cf my earlier anecdote (true) from a Highgate pub tonight. Half the drinkers had no idea who he is. Those that did had a vaguely mistrustful sense that he is a stupid "70s lefty".MarqueeMark said:So a net loss of 6% for Labour by electing Corbyn. Like they could afford to go backwards.
Genius.0 -
Corbyn = 59.5%
Your three Blairite Pseudo-Tories could only muster 40.5% between them! 0 -
Survation in poll shocker discovers what everyone already knew.0
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FPT:foxinsoxuk said:
There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.MrsB said:@pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.
Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?
I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.
Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.
On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.
The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.0 -
That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Won't his being moderate disappoint his supporters? They want him to transform politics and move away from the current policies of Labour in many areas.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.SeanT said:
A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.JWisemann said:Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?
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They aren't disappointing, they represent a negative for Labour, who are already starting from a pretty low base.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.0
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Did IOS mention something about Labour's ground game at some point?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Have either of those two reappeared?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Boost was probably the wrong word, people giving him the benefit of the doubt, no doubt.JWisemann said:
He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.SeanT said:
A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.JWisemann said:Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?0 -
And I'm already disappointed - I've not seen a single mob of peasants marching on Buckingham Palace and american air bases yet. Dull.JWisemann said:
He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.SeanT said:
A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.JWisemann said:Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?
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No, because they are just after unapologetic advocacy of moderate social democratic policies, by and large.kle4 said:
Won't his being moderate disappoint his supporters? They want him to transform politics and move away from the current policies of Labour in many areas.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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FPTMyBurningEars said:
Is 15 to 1 the odds of a Labour victory?SandyRentool said:PMQs will be like 15 to 1 - Bercow asks Corbyn 'Question or Nominate?'
Labour's been binging a lot of vintage gameshows recently.
I'm sorry I haven't a clue.
Pointless.
The weakest link.
Decimate.
Shipwrecked.
Shafted.
They think it's all over.
But the Knightmare continues.
The Tories Played Their Cards Right, Struck It Lucky and scored a Bullseye when Corbyn finally got his Big Break, officially crowned the Best Of The Worst. Didn't He Do Well? But You Bet the euphoria will last Just A Minute: if he isn't Wanted by the British public, it'll be The People Versus Labour.
The $64,000 Question is whether, with no Turnabout or Rebound, Jezza will reach for the Ejector Seat - or are his rivals playing The Waiting Game until the Opportunity Knocks to Go For Gold? We Need Answers. Can't see the support of Hamas and Argentina will be much use, Friends Like These don't go down well with the 8 out of 10 Brits who Love My Country, and Only Connect with the hard left. That's a Distraction from his plan of a Million Pound Drop, If He Ruled The World: something most economic Eggheads warn against. Yet Corbyn seems Oblivious. It's a Countdown to Total Wipeout, Labour are at Tipping Point and Every Second Counts.
Not long ago, Liz was favourite in The Chase to be Top Of The Form, but The Wheel Of Fortune turned at The Moment Of Truth! Now the Singled Out Blairites have shown 100% that they are The Biggest Losers after Corbyn's Epic Win, how many will stick it out and be Argumental in Labour politics Win, Lose or Draw, will there be any Defectors, and how many others will head for the Exit List, exploit their Connections and Want To Be Millionaires instead? (Greed! But a Family Fortune sounds more attractive than backbenching in The Bubble.) Oh how Labour miss their Golden Balls! Man Oh Man, Labour Had Talent, once.
According to the polls, It's a Knockout! Labour apparently consign themselves to Room 101. Were there many blue-leaning Moles involved? It's Perfection for the Tories.
Will the defeated candidates in this Dog Eat Dog contest stand Four Square behind their new leader? There'll be Scavengers over the mess when this is all over and Who Dares, Wins.0 -
Depending on my mood/events the morning thread talks about Labour's AWESOME ground game (no really it does)RobD said:
Did IOS mention something about Labour's ground game at some point?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Dan Hodges sums up one of Labours major problems though I suspect Corbyn and his followers won't care........
"When the new trade union bill is passed a similar collapse in the party’s union funding will follow. The last private sector donors are already walking away. Leaving Labour a party without a credible prime minister, a credible cabinet, a credible policy programme or a credible funding stream. In other words, it has ceased to be a political party at all."0 -
Many of us said explicitly before he won that the polling woudln't be too bad at first, but would get worse and worse with time. Also, positions like giving away northern Ireland and printing money to fund government are in no way reasonable or moderate.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,0
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I seem to recall that IOS was just a volunteer at head office, and had a regular dayjob, but Chilon (I suspected at the time) was either someone important or someone very well-connected.glw said:
Have either of those two reappeared?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.JWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?foxinsoxuk said:FPT:
foxinsoxuk said:
There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.MrsB said:@pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.
Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?
I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.
Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.
On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.
The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.0 -
Speaking of polls:
IOS Posts: 1,450
Titter.
May 5
all polls now looking at Ed being PM.
WELL DONE CROSBY - should have stuck to the economy.0 -
Is, was, always shall be, world without end AMEN./ Bryant will understand the reference.Alanbrooke said:Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
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What has Reverend Underpants done now?Alanbrooke said:Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
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Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
This is a dead parrot?Moses_ said:Dan Hodges sums up one of Labours major problems though I suspect Corbyn and his followers won't care........
"When the new trade union bill is passed a similar collapse in the party’s union funding will follow. The last private sector donors are already walking away. Leaving Labour a party without a credible prime minister, a credible cabinet, a credible policy programme or a credible funding stream. In other words, it has ceased to be a political party at all."0 -
The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.
The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.
The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.0 -
Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.0
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Generally poor reviews of Corbyn in Nuneaton on BBC news tonight, though 1 leftwinger and 1 2015 Kipper were more positive0
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Interview on BBC, he did a Palmer - he always supported Jezza and believes he will be PM.TheScreamingEagles said:
What has Reverend Underpants done now?Alanbrooke said:Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
Eastasia has always been our ally.0 -
Point out as you wish. He's a commie who wants to destroy the UK as we know it.kle4 said:Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
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To be read with a suitably Scottish burr. :-)Sunil_Prasannan said:"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"0 -
Eight Front bench resignations.. so far
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html0 -
I have no easy answers, because there are none.AnneJGP said:
Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?foxinsoxuk said:FPT:
foxinsoxuk said:
There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.MrsB said:@pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.
Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?
I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.
Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.
On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.
The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.0 -
For any PBers too young to know but curious as to what the 1970s was really like after the Corbyn / Watson nostalgiafest may I suggest you watch the new BBC comedy 'Cradle to Grave'.
And then add in strikes, power cuts and general crapness.
What do you do if your nose goes on strike ?
Picket / pick it.
Coming in 2020 if Labour gets its way.
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I see the PBTs are hedging their bets already in response to this disappointing nonsense polling.0
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The first poll after IDS was elected Tory leader had the Tories on 29%, Labour 46%, the LDs 20%. I would not be too surprised to see a similar result for Corbyn as IDS got, with UKIP swapped for the LDs, already this Survation has voters a net 6% less likely to vote for Corbyn than for himSeanT said:
A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.JWisemann said:Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-20050 -
It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.kle4 said:Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
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No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
This is the key polling finding
A total of 24 per cent of voters say Corbyn’s victory means they will be less likely to vote Labour; 18 per cent are more likely. Among Labour supporters 30 per cent are more likely and 15 per cent less likely.0 -
They also colluded with the IRA at certain levels.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
Pathetic comment.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
I hope Bryant has a rethink as Corby wants to be pals with ISIS. Not good if you are anyone who isn't a jihadist, but especially bad if you are someone like Bryant.Alanbrooke said:
Interview on BBC, he did a Palmer - he always supported Jezza and believes he will be PM.TheScreamingEagles said:
What has Reverend Underpants done now?Alanbrooke said:Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
Eastasia has always been our ally.0 -
After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
How is less people than voted Tory in the last election saying they think Corbyn is unfit to be PM a big thing when we've been told he will simultaneously enforce mandatory feminism, state-sponsored gayness and sharia law and put armed forces funding into scientific research to resurrect the prophet Muhammad and Saddam Hussein.0
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Quite possibly, but has any contemporary politician given the Loyalist paramilitaries the same platform and support that Jezza has given the IRA?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
0 -
Labour unitySunil_Prasannan said:I love my Mum!
She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!"0 -
He did not as you for easy answers.foxinsoxuk said:
I have no easy answers, because there are none.AnneJGP said:
Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?foxinsoxuk said:FPT:
foxinsoxuk said:
There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.MrsB said:@pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.
Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?
I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.
Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.
On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.
The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.0 -
?????SeanT said:
The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.SquareRoot said:Eight Front bench resignations.. so far
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html
Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?
It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
she's a bit of a posho herself.0 -
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
It's all relative!Alanbrooke said:
?????SeanT said:
The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.SquareRoot said:Eight Front bench resignations.. so far
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html
Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?
It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
she's a bit of a posho herself.0 -
That may be the case - I am interested to see if Corbyn in fact rises to the challenge - but my point was really to stop the claim, that will no doubt occur, when or if Corbyn gets a poll lead, that this shows that his detractors were wrong and never thought such a thing would occur. Many do think he will get a lead, but like Ed M it will not be a large enough lead (incidentally I thought Ed did get a large enough lead, and was wrong)glw said:
It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.kle4 said:Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
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Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
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Corbinite delusionJWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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So labourites won't be talking about Thatcher from this point on then ?JWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
How many of the 33% of the electorate who did not vote in 2015 were asked in the poll ? If they were asked what weight was attached to them ?TheScreamingEagles said:This is the key polling finding
A total of 24 per cent of voters say Corbyn’s victory means they will be less likely to vote Labour; 18 per cent are more likely. Among Labour supporters 30 per cent are more likely and 15 per cent less likely.
Many "Corbyn" Labour supporters do not vote currently ! Usual polling methodology will not necessarily apply.0 -
The rerating of labour support, as a consequence of getting it wrong in May will make any leads Corbyn have, look very paltry. But yes I expect Corbyn to have overall majority type leads for the bulk of this parliament. in November 2019 support will fall away and in 2020 Labour will get somewhere between 28% and 32% of the vote.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
I also expect a few local government successes. The Cons will be hoping to maybe squeeze a few gains in May, but following that we will see an attrition of councillors.
The Government is going to get a lot of grief following the autumn spending review.0 -
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
ordinariness - only by being so lamentably dull.SeanT said:
Sure. But she successfully evinced ordinariness.Alanbrooke said:
?????SeanT said:
The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.SquareRoot said:Eight Front bench resignations.. so far
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html
Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?
It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
she's a bit of a posho herself.
And of course Jezza grew up in a modest mansion and went to a private school.0 -
Were people in 1980 obsessing about elections in 1945? I don't know, I was 1.0
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So why is Jez, trying to solve today's issues with solutions from thirty five years ago?JWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.ReggieCide said:
Corbinite delusionJWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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Why are the Tories trying to solve today's issues with solutions from 135 years ago?saddened said:
So why is Jez, trying to solve today's issues with solutions from thirty five years ago?JWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
On topic: I agree very strongly with this comment. Polls at this stage are not only pretty meaningless, but these specific questions are particularly naff.William_H said:The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.
The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.
The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.
What they do suffice to show, is that the "Corbynmania" - this energising flood of euphoria that so many grassroots lefties have reported a surging tide of - hasn't broken through into mainstream opinion. It is still reminiscent of the early inklings of the SNP or Green surges - but that just goes to show it might yet catch light (not the bookies' favourite at the moment) or could simply fizzle out without translating into parliamentary gains (even if gets voting numbers up, they may well not be well-distributed electorally*).
* Corbynites suppose that he'll do well among working-class non-voters currently turned off of politics entirely, but history suggests this is a very hard group to break out into. Moreover turnout is generally lower in Labour safe seats, so these people are likely to be concentrated where they are least useful. There have also been glowing reports of Corbynmania across southern shires: but a word of caution here. There are still a core of Labour-voters (or sympathisers who, for local reasons, vote Lib Dem) in most places across the country, particularly wherever there are schools and colleges, large NHS facilities, civil service outposts and so on. Their enthusiasm may not be transmissible to the rest of the town they live, let alone the rural areas appended to the constituency. If Corbynism delivers a pro-Labour swing that is fairly evenly distributed across the country, it won't gain that many seats-per-point-of-swing. More likely, some of the effects (appeal to Old Labour types) are likely to be concentrated in Labour areas anyway, reducing the efficiency further.0 -
Broadly I am supportive of the approach taken by the Barnabas fund, and I have made donations in 4 figures to the fund in recent years.flightpath01 said:
He did not as you for easy answers.foxinsoxuk said:
I have no easy answers, because there are none.AnneJGP said:
Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?foxinsoxuk said:FPT:
foxinsoxuk said:
There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.MrsB said:@pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.
Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?
I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.
Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.
On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.
The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.
https://barnabasfund.org/appeals0 -
JC is the the way the truth and the life.alex. said:
But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.ReggieCide said:
Corbinite delusionJWisemann said:I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
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I would have thought the Daily Mail editors do it all the time !SeanT said:
I agree that most of this is bollocks. But the last is a killer. This is after 1 day. The media onslaught has barely begun.William_H said:The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.
The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.
The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.
I picture a Daily Mail comment editor literally wanking with joy, tonight.0 -
Yes, things could be a lot worse for Labour this time compared to 1983 because the party can't rely on working-class areas like Stoke-on-Trent to automatically vote Labour in the way they used to.JWisemann said:
Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
That's a significantly bigger margin than those of Boris.AndyJS said:Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
Now considering demographic trends if Labour loses by 10% in London it will be annhilalted elsewhere and suffer enormous loses in wwcland.
In Yorkshire there would be pit villages going Conservative or UKIP.
Which would be ironic after Watson's speech today.
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One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings0 -
Is NickP around tonight ?0
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I don't see any real reason to think he will have overall majority type leads. Why should he?notme said:
The rerating of labour support, as a consequence of getting it wrong in May will make any leads Corbyn have, look very paltry. But yes I expect Corbyn to have overall majority type leads for the bulk of this parliament. in November 2019 support will fall away and in 2020 Labour will get somewhere between 28% and 32% of the vote.AndyJS said:After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
I also expect a few local government successes. The Cons will be hoping to maybe squeeze a few gains in May, but following that we will see an attrition of councillors.
The Government is going to get a lot of grief following the autumn spending review.0 -
I hadn't realised that you judged this as a competition! Who qualified for Europe most? Am I getting the hang of it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0 -
proof of collusion please... who in the Govt authorised thisSunil_Prasannan said:
One example - almost exactly 40 years ago, the Miami Showband were murdered at a fake checkpoint manned by Loyalists, some of whom happened to be serving British Soldiers...SquareRoot said:
BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Showband_killings0 -
Jamie Reed and Emma Reynolds would not be recognised even in a Labour Party conference.SquareRoot said:Eight Front bench resignations.. so far
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231825/It-s-f-ing-disaster-Utter-dismay-senior-Labour-MPs-face-reality-led-Corbyn.html
Liz Kendall got 4% of the votes. She will be missed badly.0 -
And? Corbyns problem is that he openly associates with IRA members. The fact that he can't bring himself to speak to murdering scrum from the opposite side hardly improves his image.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.saddened said:
What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.SeanT said:Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.
Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".0
