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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow we might get an indication if Corbynmania is all mouth and no ballots
Assuming no more problems, sometime on Friday Labour will announce who has won the race to be their candidate for London Mayor. It could be that the result of this race could help be a pointer to the Labour leadership result.
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(Unless you're a Lib Dem)
I do better with Khan... (and I'd be pleased as a Tory)
In the fifties, the phrase was "all mouth and trousers", meaning all talk and assumption of authority, but nothing else.
Mouth = talk, and trousers meant maleness i.e. assumption of authority. But that's all there was.
"All mouth and no trousers" would mean a talkative person who made no assumption about his right to give orders. Clearly that isn't what was meant.
It's become confused with "Fur coat and no knickers." which makes sense in a different way.
I supposed I could stay glued to Betfair and watch what it does on Friday night and early Saturday morning, but that is neither productive nor reliable.
In the fifties, usually said by a woman of a man assuming authority because of his sex.
Reading that has given me a headache
On the other hand The Mayoral election is very different from the Leadership election that whoever comes out top, make no difference at all.
I presume if like OGH you've traded yourself into an all-green outcome, there's not much point getting involved in any last-minute trading except to play up your profits.
To be honest, I'm much more interested in the Irish Champion Stakes at 6.50pm on Saturday evening which has a stellar cast (if they all run).
As for London, the oddly irrational Evening Standard, which ran an op-ed piece on Tuesday evening by its owner praising Russian actions supporting Assad in Syria, last night filled space with a piece on "poll of polls" type sampling showing Jowell as the only likely Labour winner in a Mayoral race with Goldsmith.
The figures in the piece were contradictory and confusing but I had a sense of a big Jowell lead in Inner London balancing out and neutralising a small Goldsmith lead in the outer suburbs.
Still, a very long way to go as it is nationally - we are just over four months into a sixty month political cycle - the water has barely begun to think about flowing under the bridge which hasn't been built yet. Two years from now and we won't be halfway through the parliament yet everyone on here seems so certain of everything.
"Events, dear boy, events" was, I believe, the response of a former Prime Minister when asked what worried him most.
And the LibDem option is Caroline Pidgeon. 'Who?' ask millions of Londoners.
* Yes, @MrsB, I'm trolling you. Personally.
I think it'll be closer than originally thought, but I don't see any change that he'll not make it.
It is a rather ruder version than the original but it makes more sense today.
I'd assume Sadiq is far too sensible to try to overturn the result, but a narrow Jowell victory would be tainted and might cause issues with the unions and some of the activists.
Unlike the LP leadership race where none of the 4 candidates have any real chance of winning in 2020 , Labour is the favourite to win the Mayoral race under Jowell
The Labour voters don't mind taking a risk with Corbyn because they feel they are going to be on the losing side anyway and figure (wrongly ) that they haven't much to lose ...it's OK to be ''principled losers ''
But the London Mayoral race is quite different insomuch they have a great deal to lose by rejecting the best candidate and taking a principled risk with a lessor candidate like Khan
Indeed , it seems to me that pragmatism will override ''principle '' in this case and that the lure of victory will prevail ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34192447
http://imgur.com/a/oVM14
Passports in just four years there.
"Europe faces political war on two fronts as backlash builds
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The EU's Eastern states shocked to lose their sovereignty over borders, just as southern Europe lost economic sovereignty by joining the euro."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11854259/Europe-faces-political-war-on-two-fronts-as-backlash-builds.html
Unlikely? Yes, but not as unlikely as I'd have said it would be for Labour to elect Corbyn less than 3 months ago.
Mr. JS, quite. Been banging on about that for ages.
I predicted a Cooper victory because I was convinced she was the sensible , pragmatic choice but it's clear the voters are in no mood for sense or pragmatism , but prefer emotion , ideology and so called ''principle ''
I will do my best.
The closest parallel I can think of (visually) is to the partition of India, except it's one way rather than two way and there's been no major violence.
Stefan Löfven has called for Sweden’s entire public sector to unite to ensure the swift resettlement of the latest influx of refugees."
http://www.thelocal.se/20150910/prime-minister-launches-sweden-together-push
If you want the best for unskilled british workers; leave the EU and have a points based immigration system
It's unsustainable to simply allow everyone from a country less nice than Germany to go and live there. It's also dictatorial for the Chancellor to say everyone can come over, and then demand other countries take some of the horde she's invited.
There is nothing bold (nor should there be) in a centre left set of policies because we don't live in a country where that is appropriate. We live in a centrist, free market economy. That, of course, is the problem with YC, AB, LK - they have no bid idea to entice people away to a mildly different flavour of centrism. The "what changed between five to and five past 10pm on May 7th" conundrum.
Of course JC has a big idea but boy is it the wrong one.
My contribution to this (and ofc it's something that each govt has promised and failed to deliver): actually follow through on promises to build more houses. Lack of housing is at the very centre of many of the problems the UK faces today. I would build more in a way that balances the interest of developers, young people, urbanites, rural dwellers, nimbys, et al.
in fact @tim and I pretty much speak with one voice on this.
In terms of movement of peoples, nothing like the forced expulsion of Germans from central and eastern Europe in 1945-46 but the scenes of people walking along German motorways reminded me of the refugees fleeing the Russians in 1945.
The post-Warsaw Pact states of eastern Europe are relatively "new" and have seen a significant depopulation of their own as their own young people have headed to Germany and the UK and elsewhere.
AEP has a point in that the eastern European states were as ill-suited to the concept of freedom of movement (though good news for us in terms of street cleaners, plumbers, baristas and betting shop customers) as the southern European states were to the concept of a common currency with the likes of Germany and the Low Countries.
My view has always been we should have held the post-Warsaw Pact countries as associate EU members while their societies and economies integrated more fully with other parts of Europe (while keeping some countries out of the Euro until their economies caught up).
The failure of the EU is that, however laudable freedom of movement and a common currency
would be in a fully integrated Europe, the impact of the events of 1989 in particular led some leaders to do too much too soon.
The failing is on the part of the politicians that refused to see the problems their policies create and the virtue signallers egging them on
You could do it, so could I.
Does power, once gained, then corrupt? Perhaps. Certainly there are temptations along the line but mostly, the vision that got each MP elected in the first place (which is a hugely competitive and demanding process for 90% of candidates btw in case you think that anyone can waltz in there) is the vision they bring to the HoC.
As to the general public's centre. You are right, the less well the public does, the more extreme some demands can become but as we saw (IMO) at the last election, generally the public is a sensible bunch.
Of course it's always much easier to blame an unseen "elite" or even a murky international conspiracy, not that I am saying you are doing that; I'm sure nothing could be further from your thoughts.
But does she support the Bulgarian cricket team?
I'm off to bed and if anything major happens in the next few hours and it's not covered straight away you know why.
It's not all bad news. I've set the AV thread to auto publish for 3pm.
@nedsimons: I hope Liz Kendall just stands up and just screams and sets fire to everything.
@charlotteahenry: Come on @Liz4Leader - just say "I fucking warned you" and then mic drop!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34198390
@PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour leadership hotline was closed down because it was receiving too many calls. http://t.co/xsOrLkhbpX http://t.co/0Z9XCbOES4
twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/641916672941670400?lang=en