If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
One of the main reasons I left London TBH. Unless you were loaded and you liked doing expensive things with your loaded mates (I'm thinking of nightlife in particular) all of the old scenes seemed to fragment and disappear. I left behind a world of chain pubs selling £5 pints of piss lager, or boutique craft cocktail popup Old Street wankholes where a ludicrous thimble of alcoholic fruit juice requires a visit to mr Wonga. Things are happier in Manchester.
A sensible piece Mr Pedley, a lone voice of reason, amongst the chatter of fools. But too late?
Who knows. It is not impossible that we are about to see a major surprise when the 2nd or 3rd prefs come in. The pollsters and the pundits could be wrong - as they were when D Millband stood. 43% 1st prefs seems to be the magic number - above that Corbyn has won.
Relatedly, I have yet to receive my ballot paper or email-that-lets-me-vote, despite having paid my £3 and despite my receiving several hundred plaintive texts from various Labour candidates (proving that I have successfully registered).
How many are in my position? What is the problem?
I wonder if there is an upset to be had, amidst the (deliberate?) chaos
NB I registered so I could vote Corbyn and screw Labour, as per this excellent threader, but that was before it was revealed he was a nasty fellow travelling quasi Islamist Trot. If I did get a ballot now i'd chuck it in the bin.
I reported you as an entryist so you may have been chucked out anyway.
By the time these people get German passports they will have homes and jobs there, will speak German and will have very little reason or desire to come to the UK.
I'll wager that they don't learn German or integrate, and that they'll move at their earliest opportunity.
I'm with Dair in that I think terrorism is overblown as a threat. We'd get considerably better outcomes diverting CT funds into improved cancer treatments, as just one example. Of course, realpolitik prevents our leaders being as insouciant.
But it's not merely realpolitik forcing governments to act as they do.
There are genuine benefits to a government in having a cowering, fearful population. It makes their job much easier and their continuation all but guaranteed.
This is true but what happens when the fear turns to anger?
Consider this, the great british public don't want to be swamped with ragheads. What happens when the govt allows boatlods in AND this is coupled with proper, real austerity when the govt runs out of money.
Violent crime has been on a downward slope for the past 30 years, last year it went up.
Following the rules is what makes you the "good guys".
I understand that point perfectly well. But how to fight a war against an enemy which will not abide by any of the laws of war? That's the question I'm asking.
While we argue about legal niceties, IS are smuggling into Europe any number of operatives who will have no hesitation in carrying out the most bestial and brutal of attacks, unless we stop them. I want my government to focus on that. I suspect I'm not alone.
In the last ten years there has been one successful Islamist terror attack in the United Kingdom - the beheading of Lee Rigby. That itself was only the second successful Islamist terror attack in recorded history. Neither of which are directly related to ISIS
There have also been two failed attacks, both of which failed entirely due to the incompetence of the attackers. Neither of which are direcrtly related to ISIS.
That pales compard to the number of people killed by the IRA over a 40 years campaign.
And yet. We refused to give up our fundamental rights to the IRA and when governments capitulated to fear and on occasion broke the principles of decency and Human Rights, it was abandoned under public pressure (such as internment).
Yet despite this, you appear to be TERRIFIED of being murdered in your bed by ISIS and/or Islamic extremists who have virtually no historic of successful attacks and a strong record of incompetence. And for this you will give up not only your own rights but the principle that the United Kingdom is a beacon of democracy and respecter of Human rights.
It sickens me to see people cower in fear and allow their government to control THEM not terrorists by using the excuse of fear and threat which has never been realised to any meaningful extent.
This site is full of wobbly jellies , who hate foreigners and are happy for the government to murder them on their behalf based on media manipulation by said governments. Fools are easily pleased.
The Mayor of Calais is whinging about the UK's uptake of her refugees again.
Says that we're showing contempt to her people. Whatever.
Indeed. Cameron is elected to look after our interests not the Mayor of Calais'. Now we should foster sensible cooperation with her Govt in Paris ( we seem to be ), but that doesn't include giving to her. I'd suggest she does something radical and raises it in Paris to get the camps sorted out that are on er .... French territory.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
Have they?
I've seen claimed attributes about "The West" but that appears no different to Marx' call to "The Workers Of The World".
Really, there is no difference.
While I know you are going to guffaw at this, didn't Cameron allude to a threat in his statement?
That Yougov poll shows Cameron has pitched his refugee numbers almost exactly right, IMHO.
would be when the 'support' figure was a bit higher, and the 'fewer' and 'more' numbers polled almost the same, but the Tory leadership are within the MoE for that and should be pretty happy with this.
Cameron is actually listening to public opinion in his country, unlike most other European leaders.
As Robert Peston of the biased BBC makes clear in this article, the same dynamics do not exist in the UK:
If Merkel just followed public opinion, it would do Germany significant damage further down the line. Sometimes leaders have to lead.
The problem is that Free Movement in the EU means her decision to set people on the path to getting passport affects us all. We do not have Germany's dynamics, but we will be affected by Germany's "solution".
By the time these people get German passports they will have homes and jobs there, will speak German and will have very little reason or desire to come to the UK.
.
Instead,"
Last time I looked the Netherlands was not part of Germany.
That's one of the stupidest things you've ever said on PB. And I suspect you know it. But you can be forgiven. I suspect you are tired and depressed by the state of Labour.
I am afraid I just don't buy the idea that swarms of people will abandon the biggest and most successful economy in Europe after having lived there for at least eight years (the period it takes to begin to qualify for German citizenship) in order to come to the UK. Why would they?
Because, for a start, its economy is not the gleaming success you imply.
German growth has been sluggish for years (slower than ours). They've got low-ish debt and low unemployment - but then they've got a shrinking population (unlike us). Output and wages are stagnant. Germany looks good because it is in a fixed currency zone which benefits its exporters, and it is flattered by comparison with weaker neighbours, but dig deeper and things are not so rosy. At all.
It has a shrinking working age population, a growing elderly population. That's why the Germans need the Syrians and why they are likely to find opportunities there. To get here they will then have to wait eight years at a minimum.
That Yougov poll shows Cameron has pitched his refugee numbers almost exactly right, IMHO.
would be when the 'support' figure was a bit higher, and the 'fewer' and 'more' numbers polled almost the same, but the Tory leadership are within the MoE for that and should be pretty happy with this.
Cameron is actually listening to public opinion in his country, unlike most other European leaders.
Germany has a demographic problem. It needs more people of working age and does not have them. Its population is ageing. Merkel understands this, but her problem is that the German public does not want more immigration. However, it is reasonably sympathetic to refugees right now. So what Merkel has done is seize an opportunity. It is realpolitik.
As Robert Peston of the biased BBC makes clear in this article, the same dynamics do not exist in the UK:
If Merkel just followed public opinion, it would do Germany significant damage further down the line. Sometimes leaders have to lead.
The problem is that Free Movement in the EU means her decision to set people on the path to getting passport affects us all. We do not have Germany's dynamics, but we will be affected by Germany's "solution".
By the time these people get German passports they will have homes and jobs there, will speak German and will have very little reason or desire to come to the UK.
.
Instead, in 2003, she told her father Jibril that she wanted to move to Britain, where she would have to pay for university. He wasn't upset – in fact he decided to quit his job in a printing firm and bring the whole family to London."
Last time I looked the Netherlands was not part of Germany.
That's one of the stupidest things you've ever said on PB. And I suspect you know it. But you can be forgiven. I suspect you are tired and depressed by the state of Labour.
I am afraid I just don't buy the idea that swarms of people will abandon the biggest and most successful economy in Europe after having lived there for at least eight years (the period it takes to begin to qualify for German citizenship) in order to come to the UK. Why would they?
Not long after that, isn't the UK economy supposed to overtake the German? [I have read reports about how the UK is supposed to overtake Germany by 2030 or some such - do not really believe it]
The attitude of the mayor of Calais showcases everything that's wrong with French politics. Including, amazingly, blaming another country for not sorting out the problems of a French town.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
I genuinely don't know. Wouldn't surprise me. Still, on par with FARC, apparently.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
Any examples Rob, I for one have never heard of any.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
Yes, and the attack specifically targeted British nationals over others. I fail to understand the outpouring of grief (crocodile tears?) over their assassination of these vile terrorists from the left. Thankfully it seems like a few useful idiots rather than the majority as shown by the YouGov poll.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
Have they?
I've seen claimed attributes about "The West" but that appears no different to Marx' call to "The Workers Of The World".
Really, there is no difference.
While I know you are going to guffaw at this, didn't Cameron allude to a threat in his statement?
One of the reasons why I find this reliance on "Security Services Information" as the basis for "threats" is that ISIS do not appear to be shy about making claims in their propaganda.
But perhaps there is an opportunity to save some government money in this period of belt tightening. Just fish out the Dodgy Dossier and redact different bits. Then he can do what he wants if ISIS can attack us with WMD in 45 minutes.
Cameron is actually listening to public opinion in his country, unlike most other European leaders.
The problem is that Free Movement in the EU means her decision to set people on the path to getting passport affects us all. We do not have Germany's dynamics, but we will be affected by Germany's "solution".
By the time these people get German passports they will have homes and jobs there, will speak German and will have very little reason or desire to come to the UK.
Why would you think that? Thousands of British citizens aren't at all integrated despite being born here. At one level it makes for a lack of social cohesion, at the extremes we are killing them in Syria.
I think we need to distinguish between those who are not integrated and those who, despite seemingly being integrated here, are prey to extremist ideology and radicalisation. One of the answers to the latter which, I think encompasses some of the young jihadi men, is to provide an alternative narrative and to challenge, much much more robustly, the extremist ideology. We have had a tendency to leave a void which the radicals find it easy to fill.
This extract sums it up - "I could continue, but in its hypocrisies Hope not Hate's response illuminates a wider cultural crisis. Teachers, musicians, comedians, authors and liberal-left intellectuals and politicians ignore the Islamist far-Right. They are frightened of accusations of racism. They think the cause of liberal Muslims hopeless, and not worth arguing for. As a result, the young men who end up killing, enslaving, raping and dying in Syria and Iraq — and maybe soon in Britain too — have not grown up hearing arguments against extremism. British culture has presented them with racism on the one hand and silence on the other. A potentially violent young man attracted to neo-Nazi extremism will take a cultural battering. But when it comes to the equally fascistic doctrines of radical Islam, fair-weather feminists and pseudo-leftists don't want to argue. Hope not Hate and part-time anti-fascists will protest only if extremism topples over into violence, by which time the battle of ideas has been lost and the time for protest gone."
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
Have they?
I've seen claimed attributes about "The West" but that appears no different to Marx' call to "The Workers Of The World".
Really, there is no difference.
While I know you are going to guffaw at this, didn't Cameron allude to a threat in his statement?
One of the reasons why I find this reliance on "Security Services Information" as the basis for "threats" is that ISIS do not appear to be shy about making claims in their propaganda.
But perhaps there is an opportunity to save some government money in this period of belt tightening. Just fish out the Dodgy Dossier and redact different bits. Then he can do what he wants if ISIS can attack us with WMD in 45 minutes.
While they are nutters, I doubt they have the audacity to claim credit for an attack which hadn't happened yet.... Blimey.
Last time I looked the Netherlands was not part of Germany.
That's one of the stupidest things you've ever said on PB. And I suspect you know it. But you can be forgiven. I suspect you are tired and depressed by the state of Labour.
I am afraid I just don't buy the idea that swarms of people will abandon the biggest and most successful economy in Europe after having lived there for at least eight years (the period it takes to begin to qualify for German citizenship) in order to come to the UK. Why would they?
Whether or not you buy it is neither here nor there. We have a clear example of large numbers of Dutch Somalis doing it, and your very weak argument that "the Netherlands is not part of Germany" does not have any compelling reason for why Germany would be different. Besides, the very article I linked mentions that it was happening from across Northern Europe.
"But what if we were told that thousands of people from Africa we've seen arriving here are not, in fact, fleeing poverty at all? Or that, legally speaking, they're not even Africans, but rather nationals of such generous welfare utopias as Sweden, Denmark and Holland?"
"Indeed, we met so many Nigerians from Germany, or Somalis from Denmark, that we asked Oxford University's Migration Observatory to crunch the numbers on how many EU migrants are not originally from Europe. They found that 141,000 people, 7% of those who came to the UK under EU rules were born outside the continent."
You might not agree with their logic, but clearly it's happening on a large scale and you are hand-waving the effect away based on speculation. It does not even need a large percentage to: even a small share of several million is a huge number of migrants.
Think about it: on pretty much every issue you feel strongly about, there will be more than 10% of people that disagree with you. And yet you don't believe that 10% of refugees will disagree with your view on incentives and move to the UK? Even when there is an established track record of large numbers doing it in the past.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
Meanwhile, in that other selection contest which everyone keeps forgetting is happening:
the Labour Party’s mayoral contest descended further into chaos today as it emerged the result would be delayed so votes could be verified.
The six candidates held a meeting at Labour HQ in Westminster to discuss the hold-up. The result of the race to represent the party in the City Hall election was planned for 9am on Friday — but is now expected after midday.
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset (it hosts music). Yet London's property market is so distorted it makes financial sense to buy this profitable pub for £1m, close it down, and turn it into flats which you can sell for £10m.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it would not help anyway as you say the pub is profitable.
Furthermore it would seem that a great many of the new arrivals in London are not pub people. So, just like the rest of the country if for some different reasons, you can expect boozers to continue to close at the current rate if not faster.
As an side, I was talking to the owner of my local the other day who told me he is giving up as trade is so awful. He was a great proponent of the smoking ban and was convinced he would get a whole new set of wealthy customers flocking to his pub. They didn't but on some Sunday lunchtimes you can't move for pushchairs or have a conversation for the noise of screaming children running riot. He had plenty of time to chat as at one in the afternoon on a weekday we were the only people in there, so I pointed out that his menu included a cheese and pickle sandwich for £6 (six fecking quid for a cheese sarnie) and my pint of bitter cost me £4. The people who used to use his pub now either can't afford to or don't want to because of what it has become.
The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack, and threatened to commit further attacks.[16] However, the Tunisian government blamed a local splinter group of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, called the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, for the attack.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack, and threatened to commit further attacks.[16] However, the Tunisian government blamed a local splinter group of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, called the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, for the attack.
So you are saying we shouldn't trust ISIS propaganda? Well, glad we have those intelligence reports after all!
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack, and threatened to commit further attacks.[16] However, the Tunisian government blamed a local splinter group of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, called the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, for the attack.
They claimed it. If they did not do it, they clearly wanted to. They want to kill British citizens. If you join such an organisation, you become a legitimate target.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Hmm, but population does not equal economic strength. It is very much a case of quality over quantity... and I'm not sure about the "quality" (ie the skills, etc) of these new immigrants to Germany.
Does anyone know the exact timing for the Special Conference for announcing the new leader this Saturday? (ie is there an exact, or even rough, time for the announcement?)
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
Although claiming responsibility for, and being responsible for are two different things.
That said, there is clearly a set of individuals who are susceptible to engaging in Islamicist terrorism in a way that there isn't a Marxist equivalent.
Does anyone know the exact timing for the Special Conference for announcing the new leader this Saturday? (ie is there an exact, or even rough, time for the announcement?)
Does anyone know the exact timing for the Special Conference for announcing the new leader this Saturday? (ie is there an exact, or even rough, time for the announcement?)
Around 11.30, I believe
Will church bells ring out across the country to herald in Corbyn?
Does anyone know the exact timing for the Special Conference for announcing the new leader this Saturday? (ie is there an exact, or even rough, time for the announcement?)
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
I think that is an unfair characterisation, the YouGov poll had the majority of Labour supporters in favour of the assassination of the terrorists and of having a limit on more migrants. It is just a very vocal minority who are trying to claim this was wrong and are trying to paint a false narrative of widespread discontent with the decision.
We need more polls on the migrant crisis and more polls on government action.
One of the by-products of the failure at the GE has meant fewer overall polls despite there being many subjects and policies which need the light of public opinion shone on them. Without it the loudest voices get to project their views as speaking for the majority.
That is exactly right. And to undo that we need to attack the intellectual foundations of the belief system. It's not good enough for scholars to argue that terrorism is wrong on "Islamic grounds" pointing to some scriptute, because that just means you need another scholar to point to other scripture and you're converted again.
Tom Holland, the historian, has argued exactly that. That to deradicalise the jihadi youths, you need to deradicalise Mohammed himself.
Good luck with that.
I've seen it argued that Islam needs to complete its Reformation which (again it's argued) it is currently going through. It would be nice if there was a way that process could be speeded up but I've not seen any compelling argument as to how that can be achieved.
The Xtian Reformation took, what, 250 years?
Interesting Times.
In response to Dair (above):-
It is also arguable that the fundamentalism and extremism which is now prevalent is Islam's Reformation i.e. they are going back to the purity of the 7th century original. Arguably, what IS are doing is repeating what Mohammed did when he came out of Arabia and conquered territory. He was not some sort of limp-wristed liberal. He fought and killed and beheaded and took young girls as wives etc etc.
There is no law of nature which says that Islam will necessarily become more liberal. And even Christianity did not become more liberal than it had been just like that. It was challenged and attacked and mocked and satirised and forced, in the end, to come to terms with the modern world. The same needs to happen to Islam. Instead we tiptoe around it and refuse to utter even the mildest criticism of it out of fear. Well, stuff that!
If we're not going to do that, then we have to assume that most Muslims will be much more fundamental and extreme than is acceptable in Western Europe and, therefore, limit - probably quite drastically - the number of Muslims who can live within our countries. We should try winning the battle of ideas first before we go down such routes. We have not even started. IMO. A veritable trahison des clercs.
It's correct that luckily we have - so far - only had one large-scale successful Islamist attack in the UK. There have of course been plenty in other European countries, and only a complete fool would be complacent about the risk here. And of course we can never know how many attacks have been foiled by the security services; it's certainly lots, some of them very serious. It's a curious line of argument to cite the success of the security services in preventing attacks as a reason to criticise them.
FARC haven't attacked us yet and they've killed huge numbers of people in large numbers of attacks. Perhaps we should send the drones into Colombia?
Have they expressed an intent to attack us?
Well they are Marxists so their dogma is that the working class in the United Kingdom should attack and kill those who own Capital. ISIS aren't attacking us directly, it appears at best they are trying to inspire those who live here. Much like Marxists.
Haven't ISIS explicitly targetted the UK though?
They claimed responsibility for the Tunisian attack, didn't they?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack, and threatened to commit further attacks.[16] However, the Tunisian government blamed a local splinter group of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, called the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, for the attack.
Part of the problem is that these groups can be very disparate and nebulous; it is possible that individual fighters are in one group one month; another the next. The fighters move between groups as the ideologies and tactical situation changes. Likewise, groups have been fighting each other in one area of Syria, at the same time they've been fighting a mutual enemy together as a joint force in another.
Perhaps it might be best to ignore the various groups' names, and just treat one and all as the same. "Assorted Violent Islamist Sh*ts"
I daresay SeanT could come up with a better name and abbreviation / acronym than that, without implicating a car-hire company.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Hmm, but population does not equal economic strength. It is very much a case of quality over quantity... and I'm not sure about the "quality" (ie the skills, etc) of these new immigrants to Germany.
Population does not equal economic strength, but the future economic problems that Germany may face is partly as a result of a declining working population - so to an extent population does matter. A lot the Syrian refugees come from middle class backgrounds, so it's quite likely they'll have some skills.
On the subject of political approval for military action, I'd love to hear the outrage about the fact Maggie ordered a Polaris submarine into range of Argentina during the Falklands War in order to be able to threaten Cordoba with a nuclear strike...
Oh in the name of all that is holy, of course she wouldn't have. This has cropped up again and again, ever since Mitterand's shrink claimed it was true. It's about as likely as her invading Mars. If she had given the order (which she wouldn't have), John Nott (Minister of Defence at the time) would not have passed it on, Northwood wouldn't have accepted her order, Tebbit[1] and the Cabinet would have her removed by asking the Queen to appoint a replacement, Reagan would have gone apeshit (he was not senile during the Falklands), everybody (OAS, EEC, USSR, dogs in the street) would have thought she was crazy. This was the height of the Cold War, for pity's sake. Margaret Thatcher was a right-wing Atlanticist with a Hayek jones, not an insane Bond villain.
[1] During the initial days of the war, the authorisation for troop movements and conscription of vessels like the QEII and Canberra were done under Privy Council rules by Thatcher, Nott and Tebbitt, all PCs. Parliament was not preemptively consulted like they (unfortunately) do these days, which iw why it was done speedily and effectively..
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Hmm, but population does not equal economic strength. It is very much a case of quality over quantity... and I'm not sure about the "quality" (ie the skills, etc) of these new immigrants to Germany.
Population does not equal economic strength, but the future economic problems that Germany may face is partly as a result of a declining working population - so to an extent population does matter. A lot the Syrian refugees come from middle class backgrounds, so it's quite likely they'll have some skills.
In some horrible way, it's survival of the fittest. We aren't getting the dregs of society (apologies for the phrase, but you get the point).
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I doubt it, Mr. B.,, As I have pointed out on here more than once, the German government's prediction of the number of migrants expected predates their policy to accept them by several weeks. More likely, I think, that the policy was just trying to make the best of an event they already knew they couldn't control.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
They sure are quick at changing the posters these days!!
Are you saying it's gone?? AAAArgh. I haven't seen it yet and they reassured me it would be there for another week at least.
I think he is making a comment on the electronic screen vs the good old fashioned billboard!
It is probably still there, I am in the area tomorrow, will check it out.
Ah. Phew.
Yes the digital "smart screens" are amazing. Apparently every big Tesco in the country (outside London) is stocking and advertising Ice Twins, and using smart screens to do it - so the sky in the pictures on the screens actually moves, as does the hair of the Twins. Cool!
I've yet to see it in real life. I'm doing a little tour tomorrow.
The wifi hotspot which comes with the billboard is a nice touch!
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
According to this, we have already overtaken re GDP per capita.
My skepticism is based on projections of trends of very complex things. They rarely follow the trends as predicted for long periods. Syrian refugees and immigration policy can very quickly change demographics, but what will they also change? Too many elements, too much uncertainty to believe long term projections of that nature.
What evidence do we have that many of these Syrians are middle class? They can't be that middle class: their pre-war GDP per capita is about a third of that of Poland when they joined the EU.
And, of course, many of the migrants are also Libyans, Afghans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Pakistanis.
What evidence do we have that many of these Syrians are middle class? They can't be that middle class: their pre-war GDP per capita is about a third of that of Poland when they joined the EU.
And, of course, many of the migrants are also Libyans, Afghans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Pakistanis.
Middle class in Syria, I suspect. Doesn't make sense to base your class structure on earnings in other countries.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
According to this, we have already overtaken re GDP per capita.
My skepticism is based on projections of trends of very complex things. They rarely follow the trends as predicted for long periods. Syrian refugees and immigration policy can very quickly change demographics, but what will they also change? Too many elements, too much uncertainty to believe long term projections of that nature.
But we have not overtaken German GDP per capita on a nominal basis according to the IMF, World Bank or the UN. The comparisons are even less kind on PPP
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I doubt it, Mr. B.,, As I have pointed out on here more than once, the German government's prediction of the number of migrants expected predates their policy to accept them by several weeks. More likely, I think, that the policy was just trying to make the best of an event they already knew they couldn't control.
You are probably right Mr L.
My point was the whole population argument is just guff. The Germans could have picked up as many people as they wanted from E Europe at any time in the last 10 years, especially as Poles, Serbs, Croats etc. already have large communities established in the country who would make the transition easier.
They might also have tried harder to keep their own people at home. From memory Germans are the fifth largest ethnic group in the UK recent migrant mix, about 300k of them.
Interesting yougov London poll analysis tonight. While Labour is ahead 42-38% overall, it is in inner London where it really is ahead, leading 48-31%, in outer London the Tories lead 41-39%. Jowell also has a huge 64 to 36% lead over Goldsmith in inner London, but only leads him by 34 to 31% in outer London (nonetheless it shows Jowell is outpolling Labour as a whole) http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it would not help anyway as you say the pub is profitable.
Furthermore it would seem that a great many of the new arrivals in London are not pub people. So, just like the rest of the country if for some different reasons, you can expect boozers to continue to close at the current rate if not faster.
As an side, I was talking to the owner of my local the other day who told me he is giving up as trade is so awful. He was a great proponent of the smoking ban and was convinced he would get a whole new set of wealthy customers flocking to his pub. They didn't but on some Sunday lunchtimes you can't move for pushchairs or have a conversation for the noise of screaming children running riot. He had plenty of time to chat as at one in the afternoon on a weekday we were the only people in there, so I pointed out that his menu included a cheese and pickle sandwich for £6 (six fecking quid for a cheese sarnie) and my pint of bitter cost me £4. The people who used to use his pub now either can't afford to or don't want to because of what it has become.
The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
Yes the pub closure is everywhere, my main village where I live has dropped from 3 to 2 pubs, but I also often live in a small Cumbrian village, the local pub has had about 5 tenants in 5 years, and seems destined to final closure. Nearby villages are suffering the same fate, however one has made a substantial investment,circa £350K, and is always full. When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them. And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
On the subject of political approval for military action, I'd love to hear the outrage about the fact Maggie ordered a Polaris submarine into range of Argentina during the Falklands War in order to be able to threaten Cordoba with a nuclear strike...
Oh in the name of all that is holy, of course she wouldn't have. This has cropped up again and again, ever since Mitterand's shrink claimed it was true. It's about as likely as her invading Mars. If she had given the order (which she wouldn't have), John Nott (Minister of Defence at the time) would not have passed it on, Northwood wouldn't have accepted her order, Tebbit[1] and the Cabinet would have her removed by asking the Queen to appoint a replacement, Reagan would have gone apeshit (he was not senile during the Falklands), everybody (OAS, EEC, USSR, dogs in the street) would have thought she was crazy. This was the height of the Cold War, for pity's sake. Margaret Thatcher was a right-wing Atlanticist with a Hayek jones, not an insane Bond villain.
[1] During the initial days of the war, the authorisation for troop movements and conscription of vessels like the QEII and Canberra were done under Privy Council rules by Thatcher, Nott and Tebbitt, all PCs. Parliament was not preemptively consulted like they (unfortunately) do these days, which is why it was done speedily and effectively..
It could still be done under PC rules. There's a big difference between a time-critical emergency such as the Falklands was and the sort of actions Britain's been involved in more recently when there's been plenty of time to prepare the politics.
In any case, parliament was recalled (for a Saturday sitting, IIRC?).
'Our non-EU immigration policy is now out of our hands. That is the inescapable logic of the European Union as currently constituted. Reform is needed - or we should leave.'
All parties have promised EU reform for at least the last 20 years and we've had diddly squat.
At least voters are now waking up to the fact that if immigration is an important issue for them then the only option is to leave the EU,more vacuous rhetoric isn't going to work any more.
Interesting yougov London poll analysis tonight. While Labour is ahead 42-38% overall, it is in inner London where it really is ahead, leading 48-31%, in outer London the Tories lead 41-39%. Jowell also has a huge 64 to 36% lead over Goldsmith in inner London, but only leads him by 34 to 31% in outer London (nonetheless it shows Jowell is outpolling Labour as a whole) http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
I seem to recall this kind of polling led to the idea of The Doughnut, when Boris was running. Win the outer circle.
Interesting yougov London poll analysis tonight. While Labour is ahead 42-38% overall, it is in inner London where it really is ahead, leading 48-31%, in outer London the Tories lead 41-39%. Jowell also has a huge 64 to 36% lead over Goldsmith in inner London, but only leads him by 34 to 31% in outer London (nonetheless it shows Jowell is outpolling Labour as a whole) http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
The last London YG before the election had the score at 46 - 33
It ended 44 - 35
The gap was four points smaller than Labour's poll lead.
And the gap now is four, so a repeat of that error means a dead heat
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I doubt it, Mr. B.,, As I have pointed out on here more than once, the German government's prediction of the number of migrants expected predates their policy to accept them by several weeks. More likely, I think, that the policy was just trying to make the best of an event they already knew they couldn't control.
You are probably right Mr L.
My point was the whole population argument is just guff. The Germans could have picked up as many people as they wanted from E Europe at any time in the last 10 years, especially as Poles, Serbs, Croats etc. already have large communities established in the country who would make the transition easier.
They might also have tried harder to keep their own people at home. From memory Germans are the fifth largest ethnic group in the UK recent migrant mix, about 300k of them.
Fair point. Mind you in the past couple of years the Germans have been over here trying to recruit. Members of HM armed services have received offers of jobs, quite "menial" jobs at that (e.g. baggage handlers at Munich airport), and there is a firm trying to recruit British youngsters to go and take up technical apprenticeships in Germany are just two initiatives that I am aware of*. So someone in Germany has been thinking about the future.
*In both those cases accommodation and German language lessons were thrown in as standard to the package.
What evidence do we have that many of these Syrians are middle class? They can't be that middle class: their pre-war GDP per capita is about a third of that of Poland when they joined the EU.
And, of course, many of the migrants are also Libyans, Afghans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Pakistanis.
Guess the theory is that the middle classes, with more to lose, will have clung on longest in the hope that Syria might survive. Now there is no hope, they are leaving.
Equally you could argue that the smart and the rich would have left ages ago, so these must be the poor and silly (for whom one must feel intense sympathy, of course)
In truth I don't think anyone has a fecking clue. This is millions of people on the march - not just Syrians. We have no idea who is coming.
People who can afford to pay people smugglers would not be "poor".
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
Yes the pub closure is everywhere, my main village where I live has dropped from 3 to 2 pubs, but I also often live in a small Cumbrian village, the local pub has had about 5 tenants in 5 years, and seems destined to final closure. Nearby villages are suffering the same fate, however one has made a substantial investment,circa £350K, and is always full. When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them. And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
An English village without a pub is a sad and wretched thing.
Pub, church and green. These three.
Yes and the pub is often next door to the Church,sort your sins out, and then go and clock up a few more.
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
Yes the pub closure is everywhere, my main village where I live has dropped from 3 to 2 pubs, but I also often live in a small Cumbrian village, the local pub has had about 5 tenants in 5 years, and seems destined to final closure. Nearby villages are suffering the same fate, however one has made a substantial investment,circa £350K, and is always full. When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them. And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
An English village without a pub is a sad and wretched thing.
Pub, church and green. These three.
There are few greens in this part of the world, even in really beautiful villages. Not many pubs left either. Drink driving laws, satellite telly and cheap booze at supermarkets have seen to that.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
No idea.
When I was working there 2000-2004, the unions were quite adamant that immigration should be strictly controlled to stop downward pressure on their members wages.
But Germany was struggling then, now it's more buoyant they probably need the labour, but it still doesn't explain why they're not going easier on EU immigrants.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Immigration is politically very hard in Germany as elsewhere. The Syrian influx is an opportunity because currently a decent proportion of Germans are ready to welcome them as refugees.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
I have to say, I watched Paula live, running her record marathon, and it was perhaps the most amazing and inspiring run I have ever seen,yes she got a bit wobbly near the end, but amazing. She is no cheat. Oh I do a bit of running myself.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
How can running be so lucrative?
Sponsorships. Radcliffe used to do a fair few ads as well, didn't she?
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Immigration is politically very hard in Germany as elsewhere. The Syrian influx is an opportunity because currently a decent proportion of Germans are ready to welcome them as refugees.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Yeah. If you WANTED mass immigration then what Britain did 2000-2015 was the right way to do it - import lots of young, hardworking, Christian-heritage East Europeans. Essentially the ideal immigrants, quick to assimilate, never going to radicalise. Cute women, too.
Except that we didn't limit it to those. Bizarre that the Germans didn't reach out to the Poles. That was one country they should have helped if they wanted to atone for their war guilt not the Syrians.
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
Yes the pub closure is everywhere, my main village where I live has dropped from 3 to 2 pubs, but I also often live in a small Cumbrian village, the local pub has had about 5 tenants in 5 years, and seems destined to final closure. Nearby villages are suffering the same fate, however one has made a substantial investment,circa £350K, and is always full. When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them. And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
An English village without a pub is a sad and wretched thing.
Pub, church and green. These three.
There are few greens in this part of the world, even in really beautiful villages. Not many pubs left either. Drink driving laws, satellite telly and cheap booze at supermarkets have seen to that.
Deeply sad. I hope the pubs return. Something tells me they will. Man is a social animal.
A warm pub with good beer on a wet day is one of life's great pleasures. Especially when everyone else is working.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Yeah. If you WANTED mass immigration then what Britain did 2000-2015 was the right way to do it - import lots of young, hardworking, Christian-heritage East Europeans. Essentially the ideal immigrants, quick to assimilate, never going to radicalise. Cute women, too.
Except that we didn't limit it to those. Bizarre that the Germans didn't reach out to the Polies. That was one country they should have helped if they wanted to atone for their war guilt not the Syrians.
Interesting yougov London poll analysis tonight. While Labour is ahead 42-38% overall, it is in inner London where it really is ahead, leading 48-31%, in outer London the Tories lead 41-39%. Jowell also has a huge 64 to 36% lead over Goldsmith in inner London, but only leads him by 34 to 31% in outer London (nonetheless it shows Jowell is outpolling Labour as a whole) http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
The last London YG before the election had the score at 46 - 33
It ended 44 - 35
The gap was four points smaller than Labour's poll lead.
And the gap now is four, so a repeat of that error means a dead heat
Indeed, though it is really a tale of 2 parts, Inner London Labour, Outer London Tory, a dead heat overall
Interesting yougov London poll analysis tonight. While Labour is ahead 42-38% overall, it is in inner London where it really is ahead, leading 48-31%, in outer London the Tories lead 41-39%. Jowell also has a huge 64 to 36% lead over Goldsmith in inner London, but only leads him by 34 to 31% in outer London (nonetheless it shows Jowell is outpolling Labour as a whole) http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
I seem to recall this kind of polling led to the idea of The Doughnut, when Boris was running. Win the outer circle.
Indeed, Boris won because of the likes of Bromley and Ealing and Enfield and Richmond, Inner London was strongly for Ken
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
I have to say, I watched Paula live, running her record marathon, and it was perhaps the most amazing and inspiring run I have ever seen,yes she got a bit wobbly near the end, but amazing. She is no cheat. Oh I do a bit of running myself.
Most hobbies, if you do them seriously, end up costing a small fortune. Back when I was seriously walking, I could easily have two or three grands worth of equipment on me, or on my back.
The same is true for fishermen, cyclists, runners, cooks, etc, etc.
What evidence do we have that many of these Syrians are middle class? They can't be that middle class: their pre-war GDP per capita is about a third of that of Poland when they joined the EU.
And, of course, many of the migrants are also Libyans, Afghans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Pakistanis.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
How can running be so lucrative?
Sponsorships, etc. I once saw Linford Christie driving through St John's Wood in an open Porsche with two sexy hot *scantily clad* blondes either side. He seemed happy.
He was also caught doping, of course.
Damn! I should have paid more attention in PE class at school..........
Hmm.....he seems to be channelling me. I said much the same quite a few days ago now.
Hardly surprising that an atheist doesn't find Christian ethics helpful in this knotty problem. He needs to be looking to his atheist credo (based as it is on long-standing Christian history) because that's what he does believe in.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
I have to say, I watched Paula live, running her record marathon, and it was perhaps the most amazing and inspiring run I have ever seen,yes she got a bit wobbly near the end, but amazing. She is no cheat. Oh I do a bit of running myself.
Most hobbies, if you do them seriously, end up costing a small fortune. Back when I was seriously walking, I could easily have two or three grands worth of equipment on me, or on my back.
The same is true for fishermen, cyclists, runners, cooks, etc, etc.
Does anyone know the exact timing for the Special Conference for announcing the new leader this Saturday? (ie is there an exact, or even rough, time for the announcement?)
Around 11.30, I believe
Thanks. Going to be utterly bonkerly hilarious whatever happens.
Yes and the pub is often next door to the Church,sort your sins out, and then go and clock up a few more.
When I was a lad in Wandsworth the morning service was timed to finish at 11:50 - leaving just enough time to shake hands with the Vicar and make it to the Rose and Crown bang on opening, whilst the married women and children went on home to get the roast ready.
Many years later living in Worthing, evensong was also timed to finish 10 minutes before opening. We got a new rector who was not aware of the protocol and reached for too long. Everyone was too polite to walk out but there was lots of shuffling of feet, coughing and looking at watches, and that was just in the choir. After the service there was a stampede to the nearby George and Dragon (ladies included) and the rector in an attempt to maintain a conversation with one of the church wardens followed us in. He learned his lesson and was prompt to finish thereafter.
Nowadays of course the CofE couldn't muster enough to fill a snug let alone a saloon bar. Services are no longer timed to coincide with the pub's opening and not that long ago, coming out of the church after the most ghastly happy-clappy service complete with a platitude-filled sermon that would not have disgraced "thought for the day", I lit a much needed fag and was promptly accused of being sinful by some dreadful harpy who it turned out was to be our next "priest in charge".
The churches are dying as fast as the pubs and for many of the same reasons.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Immigration is politically very hard in Germany as elsewhere. The Syrian influx is an opportunity because currently a decent proportion of Germans are ready to welcome them as refugees.
This is probably the reason - especially given that Germany has a complicated issue regarding Turkish immigration. And it's ironic how Eastern European immigration is talked about in this thread, given how many Brits often complain about it. Weren't Gillian Duffy's words to Gordon Brown 'where are all these Eastern Europeans coming from?' Hmmmm....
But this pub is successful and thriving, profitable and popular, and a cultural asset.
This is ostensibly a free market, but it is perverted by overseas investment, to the detriment of London life (and yes I know I benefit as a London property owner - but that just proves my altruism).
If this is allowed to continue the very reason so many people want to live in London - the cultural vivacity - will be destroyed. So it is self defeating, anyway, in the long term, even for property developers. Ergo we might as well stop it now.
Someone on Twitter had a good idea. Lower the tax on alcohol served in pubs, raise the tax on alcohol bought off licence to take home.
Mr. T., the variable tax on booze it not new it was suggested quite widely before the last election, but no party wanted to run with it. In the specific case of the pub you talk about it The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
Yes the pub closure is everywhere, my main village where I live has dropped from 3 to 2 pubs, but I also often live in a small Cumbrian village, the local pub has had about 5 tenants in 5 years, and seems destined to final closure. Nearby villages are suffering the same fate, however one has made a substantial investment,circa £350K, and is always full. When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them. And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
An English village without a pub is a sad and wretched thing.
Pub, church and green. These three.
There are few greens in this part of the world, even in really beautiful villages. Not many pubs left either. Drink driving laws, satellite telly and cheap booze at supermarkets have seen to that.
Deeply sad. I hope the pubs return. Something tells me they will. Man is a social animal.
Where my other half's family is from in Cumbria, there is both a village green and a very good pub, now registered as a community asset, after there was a threat to it. I'm not really a pub person but do go to that one because the atmosphere is nice, it's where you hear everything that's going on, I'd never see my other half otherwise and, as @jaydee said, if you don't use it, you lose it.
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Immigration is politically very hard in Germany as elsewhere. The Syrian influx is an opportunity because currently a decent proportion of Germans are ready to welcome them as refugees.
that will last all of the Oktoberfest.
Apparently extra police are being layed on to prevent Germans mistreating the migrants during Oktoberfest. I thought they were all meant to be so welcoming.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
I have to say, I watched Paula live, running her record marathon, and it was perhaps the most amazing and inspiring run I have ever seen,yes she got a bit wobbly near the end, but amazing. She is no cheat. Oh I do a bit of running myself.
Most hobbies, if you do them seriously, end up costing a small fortune. Back when I was seriously walking, I could easily have two or three grands worth of equipment on me, or on my back.
The same is true for fishermen, cyclists, runners, cooks, etc, etc.
Not me,I run minimalist, perhaps £200/year, cough, but the occasional race in exotic places can break the budget.
OT but on the subject of ambitious talented women.....
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
I have to say, I watched Paula live, running her record marathon, and it was perhaps the most amazing and inspiring run I have ever seen,yes she got a bit wobbly near the end, but amazing. She is no cheat. Oh I do a bit of running myself.
Most hobbies, if you do them seriously, end up costing a small fortune. Back when I was seriously walking, I could easily have two or three grands worth of equipment on me, or on my back.
The same is true for fishermen, cyclists, runners, cooks, etc, etc.
Railway enthusiasts!
My trip last week from London to Birmingham via Bristol and Cheltenham (and return) set me back over £100 in total...
Part of the problem is that these groups can be very disparate and nebulous; it is possible that individual fighters are in one group one month; another the next. The fighters move between groups as the ideologies and tactical situation changes. Likewise, groups have been fighting each other in one area of Syria, at the same time they've been fighting a mutual enemy together as a joint force in another.
Perhaps it might be best to ignore the various groups' names, and just treat one and all as the same. "Assorted Violent Islamist Sh*ts"
I daresay SeanT could come up with a better name and abbreviation / acronym than that, without implicating a car-hire company.
A warm pub with good beer on a wet day is one of life's great pleasures. Especially when everyone else is working.
Why is it that no other country in the world has successfully copied the British country pub? Can't help but think of how many US rural settlements would be immeasurably better places with a proper pub. [PS even the 'Irish' pubs in towns like Philly are poor approximations, and are really just watering holes rather than community social spaces]
A warm pub with good beer on a wet day is one of life's great pleasures. Especially when everyone else is working.
Why is it that no other country in the world has successfully copied the British country pub? Can't help but think of how many US rural settlements would be immeasurably better places with a proper pub. [PS even the 'Irish' pubs in towns like Philly are poor approximations, and are really just watering holes rather than community social spaces]
@MTimT Agreed. I don't really see us overtaking the German economy either.
Actually there's a fair chance we will based on the demographics alone. Whether we will be richer in terms of GDP per head is another point.
RE demographics, I guess that's where we come back to all the Syrian refugees Germany are taking in - clearly, they are hoping that this serves as a solution to their declining population.
Personally I doubt it.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
I think part of their policy on Syrian is about 'feeling good', and PR. Many on the Left certainly ramped up their criticism of Germany as result of how they dealt with Greece, and some Germans appeared to feel very concious of that. But they also are very concerned about their declining population. When Ursula Von Der Leyen (now Germany's Defence Minister) was the Family minister, they tried to implement a number of child-care friendly initiatives to encourage Germans to 'breed': http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/letter-from-berlin-defusing-germany-s-demographic-timebomb-a-550506.html
Germany has been trying to get Germans to breed for most of my adult life I'm afraid, the population drop has been on the cards for decades.
Why the hell didn't they welcome the Poles in then? Or the Bulgarians or Romanians? I'd much much rather have Poles than Syrians in my country.
Immigration is politically very hard in Germany as elsewhere. The Syrian influx is an opportunity because currently a decent proportion of Germans are ready to welcome them as refugees.
This is probably the reason - especially given that Germany has a complicated issue regarding Turkish immigration. And it's ironic how Eastern European immigration is talked about in this thread, given how many Brits often complain about it. Weren't Gillian Duffy's words to Gordon Brown 'where are all these Eastern Europeans coming from?' Hmmmm....
You won't hear me complain about Polish immigrants.
The issue with the Duffy of this world is that the government seriously underestimated the numbers and was not honest with people when the numbers were greater and did not take steps to prepare for the inevitable effects on infrastructure and the rest.
Now more than ever we also need someone who will take on the war mongerers. The future of national security is not dependent on who The Sun or Daily Express decide we should next be bombing.
You are talking crap, ISIS are enemies of the British State, traitors and murderers, rapists and thugs. They deserve everything they get. They wanted to play with fire, they will get burnt. I am sick to death of lily livered lefties bleating on trying to defend the rights of these murderers. We are at war with these evil men whose sole intention is to destroy our hard won freedoms and way of life
once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more............
To be fair, the HuffPo article on Corbyn is one of the most persuasive I've seen, as to why electing him might make sense for a sensible but desperate lefty.
However it carefully and deliberately ignores Corbyn's appalling record of fellow travelling with the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah, Chavez, Putin, Islamists, and his general and disgusting appeasement of all terrorists and tyrants (as long as they are anti-western).
And this stuff CANNOT be ignored. This stuff might destroy Labour for a generation, even if Corbyn will "enliven the policy debate". Labour are taking an incredibly big, stupid risk with the moral reputation of their own party, and the likes of "Doc" Palmer should be ashamed.
I was astonished by Nick's apparent insouciance towards Corbyn's takeover of the Labour Party. I thought Nick, throughout his political career, was a Blairite loyalist and member of 'Labour Friends of Israel'. Now he's all sweetness and light towards a far-Left agitator who hangs around with holocaust deniers and Islamist jew-hating nutters. I can't fathom the man's mentality.
A warm pub with good beer on a wet day is one of life's great pleasures. Especially when everyone else is working.
Why is it that no other country in the world has successfully copied the British country pub? Can't help but think of how many US rural settlements would be immeasurably better places with a proper pub. [PS even the 'Irish' pubs in towns like Philly are poor approximations, and are really just watering holes rather than community social spaces]
Thank you for the numbers on Syrian middle classness. Unfortunately, "many" is a nebulous term: it could mean 20% or 90%. It would be good to get some quantitative estimations.
Yes and the pub is often next door to the Church,sort your sins out, and then go and clock up a few more.
When I was a lad in Wandsworth the morning service was timed to finish at 11:50 - leaving just enough time to shake hands with the Vicar and make it to the Rose and Crown bang on opening, whilst the married women and children went on home to get the roast ready.
Many years later living in Worthing, evensong was also timed to finish 10 minutes before opening. We got a new rector who was not aware of the protocol and reached for too long. Everyone was too polite to walk out but there was lots of shuffling of feet, coughing and looking at watches, and that was just in the choir. After the service there was a stampede to the nearby George and Dragon (ladies included) and the rector in an attempt to maintain a conversation with one of the church wardens followed us in. He learned his lesson and was prompt to finish thereafter.
Nowadays of course the CofE couldn't muster enough to fill a snug let alone a saloon bar. Services are no longer timed to coincide with the pub's opening and not that long ago, coming out of the church after the most ghastly happy-clappy service complete with a platitude-filled sermon that would not have disgraced "thought for the day", I lit a much needed fag and was promptly accused of being sinful by some dreadful harpy who it turned out was to be our next "priest in charge".
The churches are dying as fast as the pubs and for many of the same reasons.
I lived in a beautiful village outside Winchester for one year, in between visits to London to score drugs. I was dating my sister's au pair and we essentially shacked up.
One of my great joys was doing a massive country walk on a Sunday morning, through the lovely Hampshire countryside, during which I would have sex in the woods or over a stile with my then GF. At the end of the walk, zipping up our clothes, we'd repair to the village pub for noonday pints, followed by a splendid, boozy roast lunch at my sister's house. She did great crackling.
That's about as close to pure happiness as you can get. I think I'm going to cry.
Comments
Consider this, the great british public don't want to be swamped with ragheads. What happens when the govt allows boatlods in AND this is coupled with proper, real austerity when the govt runs out of money.
Violent crime has been on a downward slope for the past 30 years, last year it went up.
Oh dear.
[I have read reports about how the UK is supposed to overtake Germany by 2030 or some such - do not really believe it]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Sousse_attacks
But perhaps there is an opportunity to save some government money in this period of belt tightening. Just fish out the Dodgy Dossier and redact different bits. Then he can do what he wants if ISIS can attack us with WMD in 45 minutes.
This article is interesting on this topic - http://www.standpointmag.com/features-january-february-2015-great-betrayal-liberals-appease-islam-nick-cohen-the-left
This extract sums it up - "I could continue, but in its hypocrisies Hope not Hate's response illuminates a wider cultural crisis. Teachers, musicians, comedians, authors and liberal-left intellectuals and politicians ignore the Islamist far-Right. They are frightened of accusations of racism. They think the cause of liberal Muslims hopeless, and not worth arguing for. As a result, the young men who end up killing, enslaving, raping and dying in Syria and Iraq — and maybe soon in Britain too — have not grown up hearing arguments against extremism. British culture has presented them with racism on the one hand and silence on the other. A potentially violent young man attracted to neo-Nazi extremism will take a cultural battering. But when it comes to the equally fascistic doctrines of radical Islam, fair-weather feminists and pseudo-leftists don't want to argue. Hope not Hate and part-time anti-fascists will protest only if extremism topples over into violence, by which time the battle of ideas has been lost and the time for protest gone."
But do read it all.
"But what if we were told that thousands of people from Africa we've seen arriving here are not, in fact, fleeing poverty at all? Or that, legally speaking, they're not even Africans, but rather nationals of such generous welfare utopias as Sweden, Denmark and Holland?"
"Indeed, we met so many Nigerians from Germany, or Somalis from Denmark, that we asked Oxford University's Migration Observatory to crunch the numbers on how many EU migrants are not originally from Europe. They found that 141,000 people, 7% of those who came to the UK under EU rules were born outside the continent."
You might not agree with their logic, but clearly it's happening on a large scale and you are hand-waving the effect away based on speculation. It does not even need a large percentage to: even a small share of several million is a huge number of migrants.
Think about it: on pretty much every issue you feel strongly about, there will be more than 10% of people that disagree with you. And yet you don't believe that 10% of refugees will disagree with your view on incentives and move to the UK? Even when there is an established track record of large numbers doing it in the past.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33300776
the Labour Party’s mayoral contest descended further into chaos today as it emerged the result would be delayed so votes could be verified.
The six candidates held a meeting at Labour HQ in Westminster to discuss the hold-up. The result of the race to represent the party in the City Hall election was planned for 9am on Friday — but is now expected after midday.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
[Seems a bit of an exaggeration to call a delay of three hours 'chaos', but there we are...]
Furthermore it would seem that a great many of the new arrivals in London are not pub people. So, just like the rest of the country if for some different reasons, you can expect boozers to continue to close at the current rate if not faster.
As an side, I was talking to the owner of my local the other day who told me he is giving up as trade is so awful. He was a great proponent of the smoking ban and was convinced he would get a whole new set of wealthy customers flocking to his pub. They didn't but on some Sunday lunchtimes you can't move for pushchairs or have a conversation for the noise of screaming children running riot. He had plenty of time to chat as at one in the afternoon on a weekday we were the only people in there, so I pointed out that his menu included a cheese and pickle sandwich for £6 (six fecking quid for a cheese sarnie) and my pint of bitter cost me £4. The people who used to use his pub now either can't afford to or don't want to because of what it has become.
The tale is common enough, and the root cause is Lord Young and his misguided (some would say downright stupid) policies to "open up the market" in the 1990s. Not quite in Maggie's day but near enough. I blame Fatcher.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack, and threatened to commit further attacks.[16] However, the Tunisian government blamed a local splinter group of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, called the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, for the attack.
That said, there is clearly a set of individuals who are susceptible to engaging in Islamicist terrorism in a way that there isn't a Marxist equivalent.
We need more polls on the migrant crisis and more polls on government action.
One of the by-products of the failure at the GE has meant fewer overall polls despite there being many subjects and policies which need the light of public opinion shone on them. Without it the loudest voices get to project their views as speaking for the majority.
The Xtian Reformation took, what, 250 years?
Interesting Times.
In response to Dair (above):-
It is also arguable that the fundamentalism and extremism which is now prevalent is Islam's Reformation i.e. they are going back to the purity of the 7th century original. Arguably, what IS are doing is repeating what Mohammed did when he came out of Arabia and conquered territory. He was not some sort of limp-wristed liberal. He fought and killed and beheaded and took young girls as wives etc etc.
There is no law of nature which says that Islam will necessarily become more liberal. And even Christianity did not become more liberal than it had been just like that. It was challenged and attacked and mocked and satirised and forced, in the end, to come to terms with the modern world. The same needs to happen to Islam. Instead we tiptoe around it and refuse to utter even the mildest criticism of it out of fear. Well, stuff that!
If we're not going to do that, then we have to assume that most Muslims will be much more fundamental and extreme than is acceptable in Western Europe and, therefore, limit - probably quite drastically - the number of Muslims who can live within our countries. We should try winning the battle of ideas first before we go down such routes. We have not even started. IMO. A veritable trahison des clercs.
Perhaps it might be best to ignore the various groups' names, and just treat one and all as the same. "Assorted Violent Islamist Sh*ts"
I daresay SeanT could come up with a better name and abbreviation / acronym than that, without implicating a car-hire company.
If they were seriously worried about depopulation they could have saved a million hard working Poles a trip to the UK.
I think the Syrian thing is they just want to feel good for once.
[1] During the initial days of the war, the authorisation for troop movements and conscription of vessels like the QEII and Canberra were done under Privy Council rules by Thatcher, Nott and Tebbitt, all PCs. Parliament was not preemptively consulted like they (unfortunately) do these days, which iw why it was done speedily and effectively..
It is probably still there, I am in the area tomorrow, will check it out.
According to this, we have already overtaken re GDP per capita.
My skepticism is based on projections of trends of very complex things. They rarely follow the trends as predicted for long periods. Syrian refugees and immigration policy can very quickly change demographics, but what will they also change? Too many elements, too much uncertainty to believe long term projections of that nature.
http://www.edmundconway.com/2015/02/the-uk-germany-and-france-gdp-over-history/
And, of course, many of the migrants are also Libyans, Afghans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Pakistanis.
My point was the whole population argument is just guff. The Germans could have picked up as many people as they wanted from E Europe at any time in the last 10 years, especially as Poles, Serbs, Croats etc. already have large communities established in the country who would make the transition easier.
They might also have tried harder to keep their own people at home. From memory Germans are the fifth largest ethnic group in the UK recent migrant mix, about 300k of them.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html
When a small Cumbrian village finally loses its village pub, all the properties lose value,we have to support them.
And finally on the Corbynmania,I just cannot believe the "Labour party" as Kinnock so famously expressed are engaged in such self destruction, we await the outcome.
In any case, parliament was recalled (for a Saturday sitting, IIRC?).
'Our non-EU immigration policy is now out of our hands. That is the inescapable logic of the European Union as currently constituted. Reform is needed - or we should leave.'
All parties have promised EU reform for at least the last 20 years and we've had diddly squat.
At least voters are now waking up to the fact that if immigration is an important issue for them then the only option is to leave the EU,more vacuous rhetoric isn't going to work any more.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/joe-biden-edges-past-bernie-sanders-new-national-poll-n423471
It ended 44 - 35
The gap was four points smaller than Labour's poll lead.
And the gap now is four, so a repeat of that error means a dead heat
*In both those cases accommodation and German language lessons were thrown in as standard to the package.
A few months ago I was on a plane from Nice and infront of me was Paula Radcliffe with her two young children. I discovered she was a resident of Monaco........
Today I see she's in the news "Categorically denying cheating".
When I heard it my first thought was how unpleasant of jesse Norman to trash a national treasure using parliamentary privilege followed by the difficulty of mounting a defence of 'cheating' from the tax haven of Monaco
When I was working there 2000-2004, the unions were quite adamant that immigration should be strictly controlled to stop downward pressure on their members wages.
But Germany was struggling then, now it's more buoyant they probably need the labour, but it still doesn't explain why they're not going easier on EU immigrants.
Oh I do a bit of running myself.
The same is true for fishermen, cyclists, runners, cooks, etc, etc.
http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2013/10/syrian_refugees_war_leaves_mid.html
http://techreviewpanarab.com/en/computing/technology-for-syrian-refugees/
''Among Syrian refugees, many of whom led a middle class lifestyle before displacement''
hhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/thessaloniki-to-budapest-joining-the-refugees-on-their-long-march-to-a-new-life-10487477.htmlttp://www.fmreview.org/syria/smallwood
''Outside this train, they take taxis and sleep in hotels; like many Syrian refugees they belong to the middle class.''
http://www.giadaconnestari.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/SYRIAN_REFUGEES_LEBANON.pdf
''Refugee struggle for food, shelter and jobs. Mostly of them, from low and middle class, but even from the syrian bourgeoisie, fled their country without nothing, only a bag of clothes.''
http://carnegie-mec.org/2014/12/30/syrian-refugees-and-regional-crisis
''In comparison to other countries, where refugees come from all over Syria and tend to be heavily middle-class, Jordan has welcomed refugees from lower economic backgrounds and primarily from Daraa and Homs. Palestinian refugees from Syria, however, saw the Jordanian border close within a year of the Syrian uprising and remain shut.''
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=fUK_AgAAQBAJ&pg=PT34&lpg=PT34&dq=syrian+refugees+middle+class&source=bl&ots=iR1blJiowN&sig=EqQvO4vFCmMrmHrI1oiE85ghEDI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFAQ6AEwCDgeahUKEwiq0bSfiOjHAhXEuB4KHfWIBdo#v=onepage&q=syrian refugees middle class&f=false
A lot of the articles I've read seem to suggest that quite a lot of them are middle class.
Many years later living in Worthing, evensong was also timed to finish 10 minutes before opening. We got a new rector who was not aware of the protocol and reached for too long. Everyone was too polite to walk out but there was lots of shuffling of feet, coughing and looking at watches, and that was just in the choir. After the service there was a stampede to the nearby George and Dragon (ladies included) and the rector in an attempt to maintain a conversation with one of the church wardens followed us in. He learned his lesson and was prompt to finish thereafter.
Nowadays of course the CofE couldn't muster enough to fill a snug let alone a saloon bar. Services are no longer timed to coincide with the pub's opening and not that long ago, coming out of the church after the most ghastly happy-clappy service complete with a platitude-filled sermon that would not have disgraced "thought for the day", I lit a much needed fag and was promptly accused of being sinful by some dreadful harpy who it turned out was to be our next "priest in charge".
The churches are dying as fast as the pubs and for many of the same reasons.
My trip last week from London to Birmingham via Bristol and Cheltenham (and return) set me back over £100 in total...
The issue with the Duffy of this world is that the government seriously underestimated the numbers and was not honest with people when the numbers were greater and did not take steps to prepare for the inevitable effects on infrastructure and the rest.
Eastern Europeans* are one of the best immigrant groups you can get. They work hard, share our values and integrate. The problem was purely the scale.
*With some small exceptions.
Thank you for the numbers on Syrian middle classness. Unfortunately, "many" is a nebulous term: it could mean 20% or 90%. It would be good to get some quantitative estimations.